The document summarizes key concepts around business modeling and identifying risks for startups. It discusses identifying risks systematically by creating multiple business model canvases for different customer segments. The canvases should then be mirrored with others for feedback. Risks can be prioritized based on the stage of the product lifecycle and the three dimensions of risks - product, customer, and market. An effective process involves creating multiple canvases, ranking them based on cost/benefit, determining the product lifecycle stage, and prioritizing risks accordingly to help determine the next steps.

1. Business Modeling
to
Reduce Risk
Identify risks. Systematically.

2. What is this usually used for?
©: spidercho, dpreview.com

3. Of course,
to sit…
© Clockwork Orange, Wikimedia Commons

4. …or sometimes,
to stand on.
© File Upload Bot (Kaldari), Wikimedia Commons

5. But what, if the table is too low?
Source: archiproducts.com

6. …or too high?
Source: casa-diseno.com

7. …or the stool is
just too small?
Source: addyunknown.blogspot.com

8. …or just simply
broken?
Source insidethetravellab.com

9. Source colourbox.com
WHAT THE FUNK?

10. Words of caution:
Don‘t let your Startup Tool be a (S)tool!
Source: annebrogdonportfolio.blogspot.com
Tools are just that: tools. Not more, not
less. You still do need to use your brains.

11. Agenda
1. Business 2. Value
Model Proposition
4. Identify 3. Lean
Risks Adaptation

12. Business Model
2. Value
Proposition
4. Identify 3. Lean
Risks Adaptation

13. „[…] abstract
representation of
the business logic
of a company.“
The Business Model Ontology (Diss.),Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2004
Source: www.hangthebankers.com

14. Def.:
A business model describes the rationale
of how an organization creates, delivers,
and captures value.
Business Model Generation, A. Osterwalder, Yves Pigneur, Alan
Smith, and 470 practitioners from 45 countries, self published, 2010
Def.:
Or in English: A business model describes
how your company makes money.
What’s a startup? First Principles, Steve Blank, Blog article,
www.steveblank.com (Retrieved Oct 26, 2012)

15. What signals to follow?
Source: http://journeytojoy-timberwolf123.blogspot.de/

16. Divide & Source: http://metroland.net
Conquer
Source: melvenue.de

18. Source: artur.borzecki, flickriver.net
A snapshot of reality.

19. Value Proposition
1. Business
Model
4. Identify 3. Lean
Risks Adaptation

20. © Alex Osterwalder, Flickr.com

22. Goal: product-market fit
What jobs is she trying to get
done?
(functional, social, emotional etc…)
What pains does she have?
(Emotions, cost, situations, risks…)
What gains is she hoping for?
(functional, social, emotional, costs etc…)
All graphics © Alex Osterwalder, Flickr.com

23. On which products/services is
your VP based?
(in-/tangible, digital/virtual, financial, …)
How are they pain killers?
(Emotionen, Kosten, Situationen, Risiken …)
How are they delivering gains?
(funktional, sozial, emotional, Kosten …)
All graphics © Alex Osterwalder, Flickr.com

24. Connection of Canvas and Lean?
© Alex Osterwalder, Flickr.com

25. Lean Adaptation
1. Business 2. Value
Model Proposition
4. Identify
Risks

26. Business Model Canvas ∩ Lean Startup → Lean Canvas.

27. It‘s all about empathy and developing a
customer-centric point of view.
Source: qualiaforlife.wordpress.com

28. Customers don‘t care about your
solution. They care about their problems.
Dave McClure, 500 Startups
Source: girlzinweb.com

29. Unfair
Problem Solution
Advantage
(Existing Alternative) (High-level concept) (Early Adopter)
Key Metrics

30. (Existing Alternative) (High-level concept) (Early Adopter)
Running Lean (2nd Edition), Ash Maurya, O‘Reilly, 2012

31. (Existing Alternative) (High-level concept) (Early Adopter)
Running Lean (2nd Edition), Ash Maurya, O‘Reilly, 2012

32. Identify Risks
1. Business 2. Value
Model Proposition
3. Lean
Adaptation

33. Def.:
A startup is a human institution designed
to create a new product or service
under conditions of extreme uncertainty.
The lean startup, Eric Ries, Crown Business, 2011

34. Uncertainty and risk are
different things.
You can be uncertain about a
lot of things that aren‘t risky.

35. Def.
Uncertainty: The lack of complete
certainty, that is, the existence of more
than one possibility.
Risk: A state of uncertainty where some
of the possibilities involve a loss,
catastrophe, or other undesirable
outcome.
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, Douglas Hubbard, John Wiley & Sons, 2007.

36. 3 main categories:
RISK
PRODUCT Getting the product right.
CUSTOMER Building a path to customers.
MARKET Building a viable business.
© zerega, thepersonalgenome.com

37. P M C
(Existing Alternative) (High-level concept) (Early Adopter)
M P C
M
Running Lean (2nd Edition), Ash Maurya, O‘Reilly, 2012

38. Priorities Source: ordersixty6.blogspot.com
- some men have them, other men don‘t.

39. Incorrect prioritization = waste

40. Key take-away (1/8)
Create multiple canvases for each
specific customer segment (users vs.
paying etc.).
User
Customer
Advertiser
…

41. Key take-away (2/8)
Mirror them with others to get feedback.
Source: graphics99.com
Use feedback for the assessment of risks.

42. Key take-away (3/8)
Rank your business models.
1
2
3
4

43. Key take-away (4/8)
Rank your business models.
Ash Maurya‘s weighting order:
Customer pain level (problem)
Ease of reach (channels)
Price/gross margin (rev./cost)
Market size (customer segments)
Technical feasibility (solution)

44. Key take-away (5/8)
Prioritize risks based on stage of product.
lifecycle
Is there one-risk-that-matters at a give
point in time? (compare: one-metric-that-matters).

45. Key take-away (6/8)
P
C
P
C
M
C
M
Source: www.ashmaurya.com/2013/03/lean-analytics-the-one-metric-that-matters-and-other-provocations/
Adaptation of „The Stages of Lean Analytics“ Graphic

46. Key take-away (7/8)
3 dimensions of risk identification.
Risk Prioritization:
worst
2nd-worst
3rd-worst
…
Canvas 1 Canvas 2 …
Cost/Benefit Ranking

47. Key take-away (8/8)
Risk identification process.
Create Rank Determine
Prioritize
Multiple Canvases Life-Cycle Take Action!
Risks(Stage)
Canvases (Cost/Benefit) Stage
Learn & improve

48. Thank you!
Questions?
Julius Parrisius
Website: juliusparrisius.wordpress.com
E-Mail: juliusparrisius@gmail.com
Twitter: @JRParrisius