SEb's analysts see a large and credible IMF package as the most likely scenario to resolve the Greek debt issue. This is also what is needed to calm markets. Recent comments from EU officials also rules out debt restructuring for Greece. According to SEB's experts a proposal must be presented within coming days to calm financial and political nervousness.
Process for Online Visibility: From Information Architecture to Killer ContentYo! Yo! SEO
Information Architecture (IA) is the structure (categories) that brings all of a website’s pieces (content assets) together while providing a flow for your website visitors, in language they use and understand. Dana Lookadoo delivered this presentation at PubCon Las Vegas in November 2011.
This presentation explores the causes of the European debt crisis, timeline of the crisis, its extent, how it is being addressed, who is to blamed for the crisis and how it affects us.
Dogma continues to govern the eurozone instead of sound governance and pragmatism. The EUR 85 billion rescue package extended to Ireland the rescue package is not a game changer since it does not improve competitiveness and does not reduce the debt overload, to the contrary: liquidity support does not work out insolvency.
Process for Online Visibility: From Information Architecture to Killer ContentYo! Yo! SEO
Information Architecture (IA) is the structure (categories) that brings all of a website’s pieces (content assets) together while providing a flow for your website visitors, in language they use and understand. Dana Lookadoo delivered this presentation at PubCon Las Vegas in November 2011.
This presentation explores the causes of the European debt crisis, timeline of the crisis, its extent, how it is being addressed, who is to blamed for the crisis and how it affects us.
Dogma continues to govern the eurozone instead of sound governance and pragmatism. The EUR 85 billion rescue package extended to Ireland the rescue package is not a game changer since it does not improve competitiveness and does not reduce the debt overload, to the contrary: liquidity support does not work out insolvency.
Greece's crisis deepens as fast as its debt. 2011 budget execution is terrible with tax receipts well below plans, and there is no way Greece will get out the crisis without defaulting on its debt obligations one way or an other (the latest idea is to call it "reprofiling"!) .
The European Council summit brought a "surprisng" conclusion with the agreement on mutualizing EZ banks' rescue; however the roots of the EZ problems are not addressed: economic and competitiveness imbalances.
The EUR 110 billion IMF and eurozone rescue package this weekend will not save Greece from a debt rescheduling. As for Portugal and Spain; but watch France and Italy...
What is needed to cleap up the eurozone house - clean-up the banks and restru...Markets Beyond
European banks have been very good at lobbying to make sure European countries are baling out Greece and others, whilst our analysis shows that they could sustain a PIGS default.
Since the publication in July of stress test for banks in Europe, everything went quiet on the PIGS debt crisis with no much news during the summer. Things however are boiling again and Greek will come back to the forefront of medias sooner rather than later.
Greece eurozone and the euro the body is getting really rottenMarkets Beyond
Greece debt trap is inextricable: there is no way out of a default/restructing - debt "reprofiling" is just a joke since it would require 21% compound annual growth for 10 years to go back to 60% debt/GDP ratio.
The Impact of the current Greek financial woes on the global econo.docxcherry686017
The Impact of the current Greek financial woes on the global economy
Introduction
Soon after the implosion of Wall Street in 2008, Greece became the focal point of Europe’s debt crisis. In 2009, Greece announced its deficit figures have been understated for years. This raised concerns across the globe regarding the financial state of Greece and eventually resulted in shutting Greece out of borrowing funds from the financial markets.
By the spring of 2010, Greece was veering toward bankruptcy, which threatened to set off a new financial crisis. The European Central Bank, The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a bailout of about 240 billion Euros to Greece.
The bailouts came with conditions. Lenders imposed harsh austerity terms, requiring deep budget cuts and steep tax increases. They also required Greece to overhaul its economy by streamlining the government, ending tax evasion and making Greece an easier place to do business.
The bailout funds were meant to buy some time to help Greece stabilize its finances and allay fears of the European Union breaking up. Though the funds helped to a certain extent, the Greek economy had shrunk by a quarter and unemployment had risen above 25 percent.
Many Greeks and economists, blame the austerity measures for much of the Greece’s continuing problems. While creditors such as Germany, blame Athens for failing to conduct the economic overhauls required under its bailout agreement. They do not want to change the rules for Greece
If Greece defaults, what will happen to the economy?
In the wake of becoming one of the first developed nations to default on their international financial obligations, Greek citizens are hoping that their government strikes a deal to help save them. What exactly is going on in Greece that would cause the country to default, one may ask? Over the past few years, Greece has not been performing well economically. They have experienced increasing levels of the unemployment rate, and their banks simply have not been able to endure the financial crisis. An already high national debt has continued to build up, to the point that the payments due by Greece are almost un-payable. At the very least, the inability to repay debt is a bad signal to all countries and business relationships that the Greeks were a part of. If a deal is not met to help the Greek economy with their creditors on actions to help prevent the debt from growing, as well as repayment, there can be serious consequences.
Greece could default without exiting the Euro. In this scenario, the European Central bank would have to decide on whether or not they want to continue bailing out Greek banks, or put a complete end to aiding the Greek economy. Greece could leave the Euro, and form its own currency. This undoubtedly would have even more adverse effects on the Greek economy. If leaving the Euro-zone is imminent, citizens would begin taking their Euros out of banks. ...
Greece-crisis is an article explains about the major crisis which hit the Greece during July- 2015 which is still surviving.The reasons why still Greece crisis is surviving.
Greece's crisis deepens as fast as its debt. 2011 budget execution is terrible with tax receipts well below plans, and there is no way Greece will get out the crisis without defaulting on its debt obligations one way or an other (the latest idea is to call it "reprofiling"!) .
The European Council summit brought a "surprisng" conclusion with the agreement on mutualizing EZ banks' rescue; however the roots of the EZ problems are not addressed: economic and competitiveness imbalances.
The EUR 110 billion IMF and eurozone rescue package this weekend will not save Greece from a debt rescheduling. As for Portugal and Spain; but watch France and Italy...
What is needed to cleap up the eurozone house - clean-up the banks and restru...Markets Beyond
European banks have been very good at lobbying to make sure European countries are baling out Greece and others, whilst our analysis shows that they could sustain a PIGS default.
Since the publication in July of stress test for banks in Europe, everything went quiet on the PIGS debt crisis with no much news during the summer. Things however are boiling again and Greek will come back to the forefront of medias sooner rather than later.
Greece eurozone and the euro the body is getting really rottenMarkets Beyond
Greece debt trap is inextricable: there is no way out of a default/restructing - debt "reprofiling" is just a joke since it would require 21% compound annual growth for 10 years to go back to 60% debt/GDP ratio.
The Impact of the current Greek financial woes on the global econo.docxcherry686017
The Impact of the current Greek financial woes on the global economy
Introduction
Soon after the implosion of Wall Street in 2008, Greece became the focal point of Europe’s debt crisis. In 2009, Greece announced its deficit figures have been understated for years. This raised concerns across the globe regarding the financial state of Greece and eventually resulted in shutting Greece out of borrowing funds from the financial markets.
By the spring of 2010, Greece was veering toward bankruptcy, which threatened to set off a new financial crisis. The European Central Bank, The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a bailout of about 240 billion Euros to Greece.
The bailouts came with conditions. Lenders imposed harsh austerity terms, requiring deep budget cuts and steep tax increases. They also required Greece to overhaul its economy by streamlining the government, ending tax evasion and making Greece an easier place to do business.
The bailout funds were meant to buy some time to help Greece stabilize its finances and allay fears of the European Union breaking up. Though the funds helped to a certain extent, the Greek economy had shrunk by a quarter and unemployment had risen above 25 percent.
Many Greeks and economists, blame the austerity measures for much of the Greece’s continuing problems. While creditors such as Germany, blame Athens for failing to conduct the economic overhauls required under its bailout agreement. They do not want to change the rules for Greece
If Greece defaults, what will happen to the economy?
In the wake of becoming one of the first developed nations to default on their international financial obligations, Greek citizens are hoping that their government strikes a deal to help save them. What exactly is going on in Greece that would cause the country to default, one may ask? Over the past few years, Greece has not been performing well economically. They have experienced increasing levels of the unemployment rate, and their banks simply have not been able to endure the financial crisis. An already high national debt has continued to build up, to the point that the payments due by Greece are almost un-payable. At the very least, the inability to repay debt is a bad signal to all countries and business relationships that the Greeks were a part of. If a deal is not met to help the Greek economy with their creditors on actions to help prevent the debt from growing, as well as repayment, there can be serious consequences.
Greece could default without exiting the Euro. In this scenario, the European Central bank would have to decide on whether or not they want to continue bailing out Greek banks, or put a complete end to aiding the Greek economy. Greece could leave the Euro, and form its own currency. This undoubtedly would have even more adverse effects on the Greek economy. If leaving the Euro-zone is imminent, citizens would begin taking their Euros out of banks. ...
Greece-crisis is an article explains about the major crisis which hit the Greece during July- 2015 which is still surviving.The reasons why still Greece crisis is surviving.
Similar to SEB Research: IMF leads enlarged rescue package for Greece (20)
EU to save banks but abandon state if Greece rejects austeritySEBgroup
The EU will save its banks but abandon the state if Greece rejects austerity in the upcoming vote on 17 June, SEB’s chief strategist Johan Javeus projects in a presentation where he outlines what might lie ahead for the recession-hit country. Recent opinion polls suggest the country will get a pro-austerity government, but the final outcome is far from certain and since Greek law does not allow more polls until the election, Europe will be flying blind for a couple of weeks.
Economic growth has led to lower employment and combined with earnings from abroad and remittances this has added a significant amount of funds to households’ disposable income in all three Baltic countries, SEB’s latest Baltic Household Outlook shows.
SEB sees 25 per cent chance of Riksbank cutSEBgroup
SEB’s experts see a 25 per cent chance the Riksbank will cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent at Wednesday’s rate decision. An investor survey done by SEB shows only 8 per cent of respondents foresee a rate cut and in an internal survey among SEB’s own fixed income traders and experts, 18 per cent says they believe the rate will be cut. The alternative to a cut is an unchanged repo rate.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
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‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
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Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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2. Main scenario: IMF leads enlarged rescue
package for Greece
IMF can act more quickly than EMU-16 and is not restricted by domestic
policies
IMF has large financial resources, currently in the neighbourhood of some
USD +500bn and they can be increased further by commitments also from
non-EU countries (e.g. China, Japan). The money will be paid out in
tranches over a long period and conditioned on adherence to the agreed
consolidation programme.
Previous IMF led packages have amounted to between 20% and 40% of
GDP (e.g. Latvia, Hungary, Iceland). The Greek package will likely be
considerably larger. Current speculations range between a sizeable
increase to EUR 150bn (amounts to roughly 60% of GDP) and a more
modest increase by EUR 10bn.
We see a large and credible IMF package as the most likely scenario. This
is also what is needed to calm markets. Recent comments from EU
officials also rules out debt restructuring for Greece. A proposal must be
presented within coming days to calm financial and political nervousness.
2
3. Greek credit downgrade to junk
Facts and outlook
Greece S&P downgraded three notches to BB+ (from BBB+)
non-investment grade. Fitch and Moody’s retain investment
grade rating with Moody’s still highest at A3 (equal to S&P A-)
on review for further possible downgrade.
Portugal S&P downgraded two notches to A- (from A+).
ECB collateral rules state at least one official rating has to be
investment grade for lending from the ECB.
Trichet has stressed on several occasions that we will not see a
default in Greece. Our interpretation is that the ECB will find a
way to solve the problem, should ratings fall below the
threshold.
However, Greek banks should always have access to the short-
term funding (lender of last resort) provided that they are
deemed solvent.
3
4. Market implications of a new IMF package
Short-term effects
USD, CHF have been the obvious safe haven currencies and
would weaken somewhat on new IMF rescue package
More muted reactions for SEK and NOK assets - upside
pressure on Swedish bond yields
German interest rates will rise - relief rally for PIIGS debt,
especially shorter maturities (2Y)
Stock market may recover, but declines have so far been fairly
limited
Macro - longer term
Double-dip risk has increased
Policy stimulus will remain in place for a longer period
Large divergence in European growth, downside risk for EMU
growth
4
5. What could happen if Greece defaults?
A default does not necessarily mean that Greece is forced to leave the
EMU but it may still opt to do so:
1. If Greece defaults on its debt, the cost of leaving the euro at the
same time is small. Greece can get an economic boost from a
currency devaluation when switching back to the drachma without
worrying about the increased cost of servicing its EUR debt (on
which it has already defaulted).
2. The pressure on the other PIIGS countries will increase
dramatically if Greece defaults and even more if it leaves the euro.
Concerns will increase about these countries' ability to acquire
funding in the market. Why should the other PIIGS get help from
the EU/IMF when Greece didn’t. Portugal will be the second
country cut off from private funding followed by Spain and Ireland,
possibly Italy as well.
3. If one country leaves the euro, the whole project risks crumbling.
5
6. Large exposure to PIIGS for core EMU
banks
While German, French banks have a
Consolidated foreign claims of reporting banks, bn EUR
large exposure to Greece (including
Claims vis-à-vis Ger Fra Gre Ire Ita Port Spa
Greece 45 79 … 9 7 10 1
French direct ownership of Greek
Ireland 184 52 1 … 17 9 15 banks) it is a small share of their total
Italy 190 508 1 46 … 5 47 foreign claims (1.5%-2% of foreign
Portugal 47 45 0 5 7 … 85 claims).
Spain 238 211 0 32 31 29 …
Total 704 895 2 91 62 53 148
Main risk is contagion to other PIIGS.
Source: BIS, Dec 2009, ultimate risk basis PIIGS amount to around 20-25% of total
foreign claims for German and French
banks (16 and 10% resp. excl. Italy).
PIIGS share of Euro-zone GDP, %
Also, large inter-linkage between PIIGS
with for example considerable exposure
2008
to Portugal in Spanish banks.
Portugal 1.8
Spain 11.8
Greece 2.6
Italy 16.9
Ireland 2.0
6
8. The risks for other PIIGS - Focus on
Portugal and Spain
Portugal is likely to need financial support, probably of the same size
as for Greece
For the other PIIGS, the picture is somewhat more mixed
– Spain has a large budget deficit and the banking sector is heavily
exposed to the troubled housing/construction markets. On the other
hand, Spanish households have a high saving ratio and reasonable
low indebtedness. Moreover, Spain has experienced quite
substantial improvements in the current account.
Portugal Bond maturities (EUR, bn) Spain Bond maturities (EUR, bn)
90 84 90
20 20
18 77
18 18 80 80
16
16 16 70 70
14 61
14 14 60 60
52
12 12 50 47 50
10
10 9 8 10 40 40
8
8 7 8 30 29
6 6 30 25 30
6 6 17
20 16 20
4 4
2 2 10 10
0 0 0 0
10 11 012 13 14 015 16 17 018 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
8
9. Government finances
High debt levels for Greece and Italy, other PIIGS not that far
from Euro-zone average
Large budget deficits in Greece and Ireland. Spain and Portugal
slightly higher than Euro-zone average. Less of a problem in
Italy
Government deficit,% of GDP
5.0 5.0
2.5 2.5
0.0 0.0
-2.5 -2.5
-5.0 -5.0
-7.5 -7.5
-10.0 -10.0
-12.5 -12.5
-15.0 -15.0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Greece Spain Ireland
Italy Portugal
9
10. The root of the PIIGS countries problems
Greece has lost more
than 50% of its
competitiveness vs.
Germany since the
start of EMU
The other PIIGS are
almost as worse off
Internal devaluations
are needed to restore
competitiveness.
10
11. Small export sectors in PIIGS
Correction of current account balance will have to come from
low domestic demand
Private consumption in Spain and Ireland has declined by 7-
8% in 2008-09, investments by more than 30%
Export, % of GDP
90 Belgium 90
Ireland
80 Netherland 80
70 Austria 70
Denmark
60 Sweden 60
Germany
50 Finland 50
40 Portugal 40
UK Italy France
30 Spain Greece 30
20 20
10 10
11
12. Low Swedish exports to PIIGS
Goods export to PIIGS countries
% of total goods export
Ire. Gre, Spa. Ita. Por. PIIGS
Ireland - 0.4 4.2 3.5 0.5 8.6
Greece 0.4 - 2.9 11.5 0.7 15.5
Spain 0.5 1.4 - 8.1 9.1 19.0
Italy 0.4 2.1 6.5 - 1.0 10.0
Portugal 0.6 0.4 25.6 3.7 - 30.2
France 0.7 0.9 8.3 8.8 1.3 19.9
Sweden 0.5 0.5 2.3 3.1 0.5 7.0
UK 7.5 0.7 4.1 3.8 0.6 16.6
Germany 0.6 0.8 4.3 6.3 0.8 12.8
=
12
13. Inverted yield curve as markets are
pricing a Greek default
When a default is becoming Greece/German rate spreads
priced by the market the market
is effectively pricing in a haircut 1750 1750
on the bonds
1500 1500
For an investor to still get his
money back (after a hair cut) 1250 1250
the shorter the maturity of the 1000 1000
bond the higher the interest rate
750 750
needs to be.
Thus the yield curve gets 500 500
inverted with the 2Y yield much 250 250
higher than the 10Y
0 0
If a sizable financial aid Jan Feb Mar Apr
package is delivered which 10
covers the Greek debt maturing 10Y CDS spread 10Y Gov spread
in the coming 2 years as well as 5Y CDS spread 2Y Gov spread
expected budget deficits until
2011 then the 2Y bonds should
strongly outperform
13
14. Disclaimer
This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB
(publ) for institutional investors only. Information and opinions
contained within this document are given in good faith and are
based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent
that they are accurate or complete. No liability is accepted for
any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this
document. Changes may be made to opinions or information
contained herein without notice.
14