2009 ubc-the-ultimate-hack-slides-2.0-final-with-notes
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Associated with the chapter on re-inventing intelligence to re-engineer earth, an early comprehensive look at what I want to do for the next 20 years.
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2009 ubc-the-ultimate-hack-slides-2.0-final-with-notes
- 1. The Ultimate Hack: Re-Inventing Intelligence to Re-Engineer Earth
- 2. Creative Commons Copyright If you are inspired, do something with this. Remix to the max. If we can help, let us know. We are seeking millions of volunteers. Attribution is always required. Commercial exploitation is NOT allowed without permission & terms. Workshop on Complex Analysis of Large-Scale Systems The University of British Columbia Robert David STEELE Vivas 17 March 2009
- 5. Systems 101 • Simple systems have single points of failure, easy to diagnose, easy to fix • Complex systems have multiple points of failure, they interact in unanticipated and hard to perceive ways, are difficult to fix • Earth is a constellation of complex systems, most of which we did not build, on a downward spiral of entropy and degradation (both among things and the information about and among things). Charles Perrow 1 & 2)
- 6. Systems 102 • Time is the one strategic variable that can neither be replaced nor bought. • Changes to the Earth that once took 10,000 years now take 3 years. • Real-time science and real-time engineering are not optional—they are vital. • Re-Inventing Intelligence is the sine qua non for Re-Engineering Earth. Colin Gray 1, various 2
- 7. The Problem with Engineers….inter alia Humanities: “Free the Frog” Philosophers: “Question the Frog” “Ignore the Frog” Economists: Spiritualists: “Worship the Frog” Merchants: “Sell the Frog” Politicians: “Assume Fire, Cook the Frog” “Dissect the Frog” “Blame the Frog” Engineers: Scientists: Lawyers: “Talking Frog: Way Cool” To kiss or not to kiss is an inter-disciplinary inquiry. WHEN and HOW to kiss is the artsy part.
- 8. Life 101: The Tetrahedron SIDE 3: Economy (How We Develop Or Destroy) SIDE 1: Intelligence (How We Devine) BASE: Democracy (How We Decide) SIDE 2: Governance (How We Design) INSIDE: Engineering
- 9. Life 102: Open Everything Governance Integrity • Coalition Cabinet • Quality Education for All • PUBLIC Health Care • Full Employment • 7th Generation Focus Deliberative Integrity • Open National Strategy • Open Source Agency • Redirect 50% Secret Budget to Education & Research • Open Legislation Line by Line Electoral Integrity • Instant Run-Off • End Gerrymandering • Restore Open Debates • Add Cabinet to Debates • Liberal Voting by Mail Economic Integrity • End the Federal Reserve • Local Taxes Individuals • State Taxes Corporations • States Fund Federal • Buy Local, Own Local Engineering Bottom Line: 1.True Costs Known 2.Holistic Sustainable Design 3.Cascade Engineering 4.Earth Engineering 5.Human Engineering 6.Spiritual Engineering 7.Inter-Galactic Engineering
- 10. Re-Inventing Intelligence This Is My Area of Interest
- 11. Definitions • Data is the increment that can be known • Information is Data known to one or more • Education is the Process of Sharing • Knowledge is Data in organized static form • Intelligence is Applied Knowledge • Intelligence is Remedial Education for Adults • Wisdom is Collective Intelligence in Being • Integrity is the Force that Powers Social Networks. Nature Individuals Social Networks
- 12. What Is Education? Education should be “the transmission of our mental, moral, technical, and aesthetic heritage as fully as possible to as many as possible… [because] no one man, however brilliant or well-informed, can come in one lifetime to such a fullness of understanding as to safely judge and dismiss the customs or institutions of his society, for these are the wisdom of generations after centuries of experiment in the laboratory of history.” Will and Ariel Durant, The Lessons of History
- 13. What Import Has Education? "When Plato says that the office of minister of education is 'of all the great offices of state the greatest,' and that the citizens should elect their very best man to this office (Laws 765-6), he is not pronouncing a platitude, he is making a radical, revolutionary proposition. Will Durant, PHILOSOPHY and the Social Problem (1916)
- 14. What Is Engineering? "The social problem" and the task of philosophy is to achieve balance between emergent individualism and the larger social construct that needs civic duty and contributions from all if the group is to be safe and be prosperous. Will Durant, PHILOSOPHY and the Social Problem (1916) Engineering Souls and Minds is Higher-Order Engineering….
- 15. What Import Has Engineering? “The only real revolution is in the enlightenment of the mind and the improvement of character, the only real emancipation is individual, and the only real revolutionaries are philosophers and saints.” Will and Ariel Durant, The Lessons of History (1968) Engineering spans a spectrum from the material to the spiritual.
- 16. What Is Intelligent Engineering? Let me count the ways… Going In Assumption: You Are a Superior Being. You have Just Landed on Earth, a Wasteland. • Identify and eliminate all toxins & carcinogens. • Identify and eradicate all externalized costs. • Cease and desist all harmful operations. • Eat the tail—engineer the energy-entropy line. • Eat the head—engineer the managing. • Eat the heart—engineer the engineering. • Find the soul—love Earth, it will love you back.
- 17. I was the most beautiful little frog until an engineer kissed me….
- 19. Ten Generic Challenges 44 Dictators + Immoral Capitalism Sets the Stage Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries Corruption Common 80 Countries Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
- 20. • Prioritized but intimately connected • These are systemic challenges that require systemic understanding and systemic solutions • Policies and budgets must be harmonized among all parties A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility— Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change (United Nations, 2004) W A T E R W E A L T H
- 21. Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
- 22. Perennial Ethnic Fault Lines 18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
- 23. Water & War Fault Lines Coincident with Ethnic Fault Lines Hyper-Arid Arid Semi- Arid Sub-Humid Water Pollution 1 2 Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 3 4 5 6
- 24. Home Front Weaknesses Trick Question: Do we spend on reinforcing the old? Or do we do a fresh start rooted in Sustainable Design? 24 Public Health DATA Corruption ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
- 25. Four Different Threat Classes Require Four Different Security Approaches PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING ECONOMIC TERRORISM CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (BIG WAR) LOW TECH BRUTES (GANGS) HIGH TECH SEERS (HOME) LOW TECH SEERS (POOR) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY WAR Clearly understood in 1988 but BOTH the U.S. Intelligence Community AND the Military Leaders Refused to Listen.
- 26. Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat 10% 50% 25% 15% State vs State State vs Nation Inter-Ethnic Tribal Gang Wars, Genocide, Decolonization
- 27. POLITICS IS NOT INTELLIGENT Should Be, But Is Not, Synthesis
- 28. Secrets "Intelligence" "Protected" Open Targeting Signals Imagery Order of Battle Mapping Undercover Investigation Privacy Metrics Secret Sensitive Private Open Secret Sensitive Private Open Theoretical Information-Sharing & Decision-Support Client Information Pricing Information Cost Information External Information Secrets "Intelligence" "Protected" Open
- 29. ACTUAL Information-Sharing & Decision-Support: 2% I am not making this up: • Typical Embassy collects at best 20% of available relevant information • Diplomats outnumbered by singletons from many other agencies, have no money • Spies have money, but will only listen to traitors • Spills 80% of that on how it is processed (or not) back to home base
- 30. Dumber, Blunder, & Plunder No Feedback Loops, No Integrity Tax Citizens $$$$$ Legislate Spending $$$$ Corporate Profit $$ Federal Waste $$$ STRIKE ONE STRIKE TWO STRIKE THREE SCREWED
- 31. 01 Anti-Americanism, Blowback, Why the Rest Hates the West 02 Betrayal of the Public Trust 03 Biomimicry, Green Chemistry, Ecological Economics, Natural Capitalism 04 Blessed Unrest, Dignity, Dissent, & the Tao of Democracy 05 Capitalism, Globalization, Peak Oil, & “Free” Trade Run Amok 06 Collective Intelligence, Power of Us, We Are One, & Wealth of We 07 Culture of Catastrophe, Cheating, Conflict, & Conspiracy 08 Deception, Facts, Fog, History (Lost), Knowledge, Learning, & Lies 09 Democracy in Decline 10 Emerging and Evolving Threats & Challenges 11 Failed States, Poverty, Wrongful Leadership, and the Sorrows of Empire 12 Future of Life, State of the Future, Plan B 3.0 13 Hackers & The Right Stuff 14 Innovation & 21st Century Leadership 15 Instruments of National Power Hard and Soft 16 Intelligence, Decision-Support, & Decision-Making 17 Internet (Good, Bad, & Ugly) 18 Philosophy, Psychology, & Religion from Faith to Fascism 19 Strategy 20 War, Waste, & Crimes Against Humanity
- 33. WHAT IS POWER? What’s Next? IS THERE ONE ABSOLUTE? Is There One Persistent Rule? IS THERE A HIGHER AUTHORITY? How Are Good Hacks Validated? CAN ENGINEERS IGNORE THE HUMANITIES? Whither Faith, Morality, & Other Values? WHO DECIDES PART II? Where do All Beings Come Into the Decision-Cycle? WHO DECIDES PART I? Where do Engineers Come Into the Policy Decision-Cycle? WHAT IS REALITY? How Do We Discover, Discriminate, Distill, and Disseminate?
- 34. WHAT IS REALITY? How Do We Discover, Discriminate, Distill, and Disseminate? WESTERN REALITY • Me • Now • Here • Ignore True Costs • Ignore Other Stakeholders • Ignore Other Disciplines • Gov Spec Cost Plus Rules • Secrecy is Protection • What, Me Worry? WHOLE EARTH REALITY • All Living Things • Past, Present, & Future • Whole Earth Context • True Costs Known in Detail • All Stakeholders Consulted • All Disciplines Consulted • Hack = Integrity + Elegance • Secrecy is Harmful • Love Now, Live Forever
- 35. WHO DECIDES PART I? Where do Engineers Come Into the Policy Decision-Cycle? MONEY, NOT BRAINS • Citizens Pay Taxes • Government Spends Money • Bureaucrats Specify Needs • Contractors Build to Spec • Banks STEAL Interest • Cycle Begins Again BOTTOM LINE: Engineers as Mechanics, Do As Told BRAINS OVER MONEY • Needs Defined by All • Possibilities Defined by All • True Costs Understood by All • Green Holistic Engineering • Engineering SAVES Money • Cycle Begins Again BOTTOM LINE: Engineers as Architects & Healers
- 36. WHO DECIDES PART II? Where do All Beings Come Into the Decision-Cycle? WESTERN DECISION-MAKING • Men who manage men manage men who manage things, and men who manage money, manage all • Money rules over all else • Secrecy used to avoid opposition and silence internal dissent • “Collateral Damage” is not considered consequential NATURAL DECISION MAKING • Adaptability, diversity, integrity, inclusiveness, and “group IQ” all determine survival & sustainability • Money corrupts information • Secrecy degrades information and makes good engineering impossible • “Collateral Damage” is to be avoided as a true deep cost
- 37. CAN E’s IGNORE HUMANITIES? Whither Faith, Morality, & Other Values? NATURE MAN SCIENCE BEING GOD EXPERIENCE REVOLUTION EVOLUTION TEMPERANCE Definition Relation Progress Metaphysics
- 38. IS THERE HIGHER AUTHORITY? How Are Good Hacks Validated? 1. Does It Meet a Need? 2. Is the Solution Elegant? 3. Can the Solution Serve Others? 4. Is the Solution Transparent? 5. Is the Solution Affordable? 6. Does the Solution Avoid Creating New Needs or Problems? 7. Does the Solution Have a Positive Ripple Effect?
- 39. IS THERE ONE ABSOLUTE? Is There One Persistent Rule? So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets. Matthew 7:12 Do to others as you would have them do to you. Luke 6:31 Engineer-Speak: Does this specific task improve or diminish humanity? Do no harm.
- 40. WHAT IS POWER? What’s Next? From Bending Metal to Bending Minds ISOLATION INTEGRATION “Early Rational” Money, Taxes, Bureaucracy, Shared Knowledge Primitive Engineering, Weapons & Fire “Magic” and Knowledge of Earth Spirits Consanguinity & Tribal Collectives Brute Force Sensor-Motor Competencies “Middle Rational” Limits to Growth, Human Rights, Intermediate Engineering Integral Consciousness Whole Earth Engineering Morality, Dignity, Love Transparency, Panarchy
- 41. Intelligent Engineering 101 WHAT IS REALITY? How Do We—How Should We— Discover, Discriminate, Distill, Disseminate, & Decide?
- 42. Intelligent Engineering 101 Part I: State of the Earth Part II: Data Pathologies Part III: Re-Inventing Intelligence Part IV: Re-Engineering Earth
- 43. Intelligent Engineering 101 Part I: State of the Earth
- 44. Vladimir Putin 28 January 2009 Davos, Switzerland The time for enlightenment has come. We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future. … In our opinion, we must first atone for the past and open our cards, so to speak.
- 45. Key Positive Trends • Wealth of networks: fortune at the bottom of the pyramid, peace through connectivity, wealth from sharing information • GreenMind: Biomimicry, beneficial bacteria, green chemistry, • Information Symmetry=Moral Capitalism: : “true costs” at point of sale; natural capitalism, green to gold, cradle to cradle, home rule, eat local, end of corporate personality • Left Hand of God: faith-based dialog and diplomacy, obvious need to end our support to 42 of 44 dictators, shunning of cults • Peer to Peer People Power: from the Tao of Democracy to localized Wisdom Councils to Blessed Unrest to the Clock of the Long Now.
- 46. Key Negative Trends • Collapse of complex societies: catastrophe from disaster for lack of resilience & adaptation as well as corruption • Acts of Man creating Acts of God: natural disasters will be more frequent & more severe as we cement more land • Acceleration of Earth’s Demise: changes that used to take 10,000 years now take THREE years; absent Real Time Science and Real Time Public Policy (online, deliberative, transparent) we die • Shock Capitalism continues to loot the Earth and has turned USA into a Third World country—UAE (Dubai) is the new Switzerland • Political Corruption ascendant—44 dictators, both Republican and Democratic parties are “running on empty” and very corrupt, elites in towns across America have sold us out
- 47. Education Is Really Bad Engineering The underlying threat to peace and prosperity-the cause of causes—is the ever-widening chasm between policymakers with power, and private sector experts and participants with knowledge. … We thus require a strategy to create a virtual intelligence community able to both inform governance, and also carry out a new kind of virtual diplomacy, information peacekeeping. Information peacekeeping can help avoid and resolve conflict, and represents the conceptual, technical, and practical foundation for successful virtual diplomacy—virtual intelligence is virtual diplomacy. Steele, Virtual Intelligence (USIP 1997) Earth Intelligence Network seeks to create a global educational network: Our goal is to harness the potential of shared information on a global scale that transcends individual nations’ narrow interests or corporate special interests in favor of both local and global. Ultimately we seek to connect every person to all information in all languages all the time—dots to dots, dots to people, people to people, at each level of community. With the cell phone, there is NO degree of separation. It’s the wireless version of “hard wired.” Ohm’s law applies—we create a perfect amplification circuit for all human knowledge aka civilization. Earth is nature, WE are Civilization.
- 48. Intelligent Engineering 101 Part II: Data Pathologies
- 49. Conscious Evolution in Every Clime and Place CE I2 x E2 = CN CS CI
- 50. You UBC BC Canada Humanity Earth Our Galaxy 100,000,000,000 Other Galaxies Cascadia Salmon Nation Geeks with Black Hair Geeks It’s All Data in Relation… Engineer Data and You Engineer Earth
- 51. WARNING NOTICE: We are a Mote in the Large Scheme of Things
- 54. GEOGRAPHY ETHNOGRAPHY CLIMATE POLITICAL (IMPOSED) GENOCIDE POVERTY
- 55. EUR USA PRC
- 57. Integrity DATA PATHOLOGIES THE CURE • Forbidden Knowledge • Lost History • Manufacturing Consent • Missing Information • Fog Facts • Propaganda • Rule by Secrecy • Weapons of Mass Deception
- 58. Integrity Attributes of Integrity Antonyms Accountable Impunity Accurate Inaccurate Complete Incomplete Consistent Inconsistent Ethical Unethical Incorruptible Corruptible Inclusive Exclusive Pure Impure Reliable Unreliable Secure Insecure Sound Unsound Steadfast Erratic Tolerance Rigor Mortis Truthfulness Deception Unimpaired Encumbered Unity Disunity Valid Invalid Watertight Leaky Whole Partial Wholesome Syphilitic
- 59. 1491: Lost History • Holmberg's Mistake: “History began in 1492” • Indians shaped the Amazon • 25,000 miles of roads that exist to this day • Indians practiced Great Law of Peace • “State of Nature” was natural & prosperous • Language analysis reveals networks in relation • Disease, not war, killed the majority
- 60. Health of Nations • The Congress of Vienna, the current law of nations, and the de-humanization of state to state relations, isolating the internal affairs and inhumanities of state from global public morality and indignation, are the greatest travesty in human history. • The state as a corporate personality is as immoral (and irrational in terms of natural law) as is the corporate personality that allows corporations to treat humans as "goods."
- 61. Missing Information Part I Google Plus: You Get What Someone ELSE Pays for You to See
- 62. Missing Information Part II TRUE COST OF A COTTON SHIRT • Water • Earth Erosion • Fuel (in situ & in transit) • Child & Abused Labor • Toxic Chemical Waste • Tax Avoidance • Waste • Opportunity Costs (Local) • Post Purchase Costs (Yours) TRUE COST OF PACKAGING • Direct Labor • Indirect Labor • Materiel Movement • Warehousing • Waste • Overtime • Quality • Machinery http://www.securitypackaging.com/cost.php TRUE COST OF PRINT CARTRIGES THAT LIE TO YOU
- 63. Man’s anemic failure to exist renders a)His PERCEPTION narrow and impoverished b)His IDENTITY “locked in” and stagnant c) Leading to an overall sense of inCOMPETENCE and anticipated loss d) He fails to INVEST authentically or intensely e) And by devising non- SUSPENDING, RISK-reducing strategies i) He accepts little or no responsibility for FEEDBACK, which leads to disINTEGRATION and lack of COMPLEXITY in himself and his victim. h) But seeks domination of, or submission to, others’ perspectives in a non-dialectical, negantropic failure of SYNERGY g) And is often unable to make a SELF-CONFIRMING, SELF-TRANSCENDING IMPACT (even f) Avoids trying to BRIDGE THE (wider) DISTANCES to others over shorter distances)
- 64. When you’re a pig, wallowing in shit seems normal.
- 65. Intelligent Engineering 101 Part III: Re-Inventing Intelligence
- 66. Man exists freely a)Through the quality of his PERCEPTION b)And the strength of his IDENTITY c) And the synthesis of those into his anticipated and experienced COMPETENCE d) He INVESTS this with intensity and authenticity in his human environment e) by periodically SUSPENDING, his cognitive structures and RISKING himself i) Each will attempt to INTEGRATE the FEEDBACK from this process into mental matrices of developing COMPLEXITY h) And through a dialectic achieve a HIGHER SYNERGY g) He seeks to make a SELF-CONFIRMING, SELF-TRANSCENDING IMPACT upon the f) In trying to BRIDGE THE DISTANCE to the other other
- 67. Human DNA molecules, which are information carriers, consist of 2300 million nucleotides, which contain the information for nearly one million genes. We are grains of consciousness in a global mind. The structure of the involved matter itself is not the key to understanding but instead, it is the process that is central. [Given the 100,000,000,000 galaxies surrounding the Milky Way we must conclude] that at this moment there may exist ten million planets with advanced cultures outside our own galaxy. It is not possible to see the end of the expansion of consciousness, not in space, not in time, not in complexity of information processes. Nevertheless, somehow all levels of self-organization of matter and information processes through space and during time seem to converge into something that might be called the Universal Mind.
- 68. Sparse Matrix:: Known Information Knowledge Intelligence Wisdom Random: No Idea Incomplete Factorial: Exploration? MATTER Full Factorial: Wisdom? PROCESS
- 69. Pairs of Terms • Objective vs. Subjective • Synthesis vs. Analysis • Emergent vs. Static • Equilibrium vs. Far from Equilibrium • Thermodynamics vs. Physical dynamics • Reversible vs. Irreversible • Disorder (Options) vs. Order (Linear & Fixed) His bottom line: “It’s the PROCESS that matters.” RS Adds: “You’re only as good as your feedback loops.”
- 73. Level of Analysis Threat Grade Comment Strategic Sustainability LOW (2.0) Not sustainable for more than two weeks. Operational Availability MEDIUM (3.0) Many of them scattered around. Tactical Reliability LOW (2.0) Cannibalized parts, stored in open, poorly trained crews. Technical Lethality HIGH (4.0) Best tanks money could buy at the time from Russia. US IC Official Threat on Worst Case Basis General Threat Factor <MEDIUM (2.75) Proper analysis differentiated threat at each level which means each level commander is individually informed. Military Difference 1.25 (31%) Being wrong by 31% is significant— nuances matter. On balance, at two of four levels, threat is a LOW threat. Threat (or Factor Being Evaluated) Changes at Each Level of Analysis
- 75. Rule 5 Intelligence without Translation is Ignorant • USA failed to translate captured documents from first World Trade Center bombing and from Philippines • Need global network of on-call translators in 29+ languages • Web-based OSS Terrorism Project 1999 Arabic, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu Millions
- 76. LOVE NOT WAR Gandhi Had It Right APPLY THE GOLDEN RULE We Cannot Win With Guns BE ACCOUNTABLE TO ALL Citizens, Congress, Humanity INTEGRATE FAITH & VALUES Morality, Legitimacy, Reciprocity, Transparency DEVISE & IMPLEMENT LONG-TERM Multinational Information Sharing & Sense-Making APPLY OPEN EVERYTHING WITH INTEGRITY Combine Access, Brains, Honor, & Tools START WITH REALITY All Information, All Languages, All the Time
- 77. Collection Integrity • Respect Historical • Respect Indigenous • Seek Out “True Costs” • Seek 360o Viewpoints • Do Real-Time Science Leadership Integrity • Open Mindset • Moral Courage • See the Whole • Play the Long Game • Share Knowledge • Seek Wisdom Analytic Integrity • Never Neglect History • 360o Analysis Always • Countervailing Views • In Relation to 10/12/8* • Practice Analytic Tradecraft • Follow the New Rules (26) * 10 threats, 12 policies, 8 challengers Processing Integrity • Digitize EVERYTHING • Geospatial Time Tag ALL • Apply automated analysis • Provide human-centric IT • Embrace Visualization Program Integrity • Practice Golden Rule • Respect Reality • Respect the Public • Be the Moral Agent • Eat What You Kill • Share Known Truths
- 78. Evolutionary Eras What Do We Need to Know? 1st Generation Easy: Where is the Army? 2nd Generation Easy: Where are the trenches? 3rd Generation Moderate: How many with what? 4th Generation Hard: Watch every non-state actor. 5th Generation Hard: Watch everything on the fly. 6th Generation Hard: Make sense of billions of bits. 7th Generation Very Hard: 24/7, 33+ languages and get your own house in order. As quickly as possible, 183 languages going back 200 years, then 400. Figure 7: Seven Generations of Intelligence & Information Operations
- 79. HISTORY All Cultures, All Languages FUTURE One World, Get A Grip Figure 9: Concept for Information Operations 24/7 in All Languages & Mediums
- 81. III - External Information EXTERNAL Data Visualization Expert Hires “Just Enough, Just in Time” Business Intelligence Institutionalized Local Knowledge Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring Customer Monitoring TECHNICAL HUMAN Vendor Reporting INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Data Conversion Churning (Rotationals) Trip Reports Internal Reporting Government Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital™ Rolodexes/E-Mail Personal Brand Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Project/Group Management Training E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
- 82. Future History & Current Now
- 83. State Targets – Lots of Assets Organizational Targets – Very Few Assets Individual Targets – Virtually No Assets
- 85. Figure 28: Information & Intelligence Element of Regional Centre
- 87. Figure 30: Low-Tech Individual Hand-Held Access (Generally Free)
- 89. Intelligent Engineering 101 Part IV: Re-Engineering Earth
- 90. Bill Clinton 28 January 2009 D, Switzerland A lot of us [NGOs] have lost a great deal in that our wealthy donors have not been able to contribute as generously as they have in the past. We are going to have to learn how to use the Internet and global communications to reach every citizen, to redefine global citizenship so that every citizen, including all those of modest means, feels a responsibility to give, to donate. And in the end, we will be stronger. Paraphrase as recollected by Robert Steele
- 91. New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance within national security. 1 i i i CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Ground Economic Patrol Truth Aid Port Security Electronic Reserve Reserve Environment Public Health Peace Navy 50% 15% 20% 15% 250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 32B Engineers: Less Gov Spec Cost Plus, More Peace & Prosperity Engineering
- 92. All those with a need, however miniscule All those with something to give Time-Phased Harmonized Giving Time & Space Relations Cluster of Medical Needs Harmonized Giving Peer to peer giving Cluster of Clothing Need Organized Giving Wks, Mos, Yrs, Decades Figure 14: Global Range of Gifts Table Illustrated Cluster of Food Need Over Time Powered by Zero Waste Mind-Sets, Enabled by Ubiquitous Information Access Benefit #1: On Demand Precision Giving Benefit #2: Elimination of Overhead Benefit #3: Harnesses Giving of Billion Individuals Who Do Not Give Now Peacekeeping Intelligence 21: Influence How OTHERS Spend
- 93. Figure 26: Intangible Mentals and Integrated True Costs Recovery Curve
- 94. Engineering Interventions Human Engineering 1. Information-Sharing & Public Sense-Making 2. Communication of Intelligence (not noise) 3. Education Sources & Methods 4. Cultural Cohesion & Family Sustainment 5. Health Knowledge & Wisdom 6. Water Preservation & Purification 7. Energy Conservation & Creation 8. Food Sustainability & Security Earth Engineering Social Engineering “New” Engineering Demands INTEGRATION of All Three Dimensions
- 96. Thinking Holistically Everything is Connected—Get a Grip!
- 97. Synthesis • Liberty or Duty? • Capitalism or Socialism? • Anarchy or Panarchy? • Federation or Confederation? • War or Peace? • Live and Let Die or Live and Help Live? • Brute Force or Brain Power? We started with an emphasis on PROCESS. Let us end with an emphasis on SYNTHESIS. Between two competing alternatives, the answer is ALWAYS “Some of Each.”
- 98. Truth, Trust, Time Every community needs two Truth & Reconciliation Commissions First for “what have we done to our own indigenous & impoverished?” Second for “what has been done to others “in our name?” Nobel Prize given in 1990’s for a gamer who demonstrated that Trust Lowers the Cost of Doing Business. Trust—Morality—is to the physical as ten to one in terms of creating a prosperous world at peace. Time is the one strategic variable that cannot be bought nor replaced. Use it or lose it.
- 99. Seven Step Program for Engineers Step 1: Start with a multi-disciplinary team. Step 2: Focus on the problem not the client Step 3: Engage all stakeholders including the poor Step 4: Create holistic outcome statement Step 5: Devise inter-disciplinary measures of merit Step 6: Engage best-in-class off-the-shelf minds Step 7: Constantly cycle strategic linkages
- 100. Thy Will Be Done….. On Earth….. As It Is In Heaven…..
- 101. One Planet, One God, One We. Pass it on……..
- 102. Or Not…..
- 103. www.earth-intelligence.net www.oss.net Robert David STEELE Vivas To kiss or not to kiss is an inter-disciplinary inquiry. WHEN and HOW to kiss is the artsy part. Integrity. There is NO Substitute.
Editor's Notes
- Brief introduction of speaker Son of an oil (mechanical engineer) Life overseas Marine officer, CIA clandestine officer Champion for Open Source Intelligence since 1988 “Do not send a spy where a schoolboy can go”
- No Notes.
- My library before I rented out the building to reduce costs.
- Categories in which I read, #1 Amazon reviewer for non-fiction, all of this is relevant to being the best and most holistic kind of engineer.
- Engineers must focus not just on the simple system they are building, but on the constellation of complex systems of which it is a part…..most built by the lowest bidder. SIDENOTE: Buckminster Fuller’s prior knowledge permeates my work.
- We are out of time. Real-time science and real-time engineering needed. Re-inventing intelligence is a supporting foundation for re-engineering Earth.
- PAUSE PAUSE
- Tetrahedron is building block of life. Note the relationship among the base and three sides. Engineering Inside!
- Open systems are better than closed systems. INTEGRITY is the common denominator for good systems able to play well with one another. Engineering bottom line includes need to understand “true costs” both tangible and intangible, both historic and anticipatable.
- This is my area of interest.
- PAUSE I would emphasize that most of what the secret world calls “intelligence” is nothing more than very expensive classified INFORMATION. No man is an island, wisdom is by its very nature both inherited from prior generations and shared among a larger collective in the aggregate. INTEGRITY is the primary source of energy for effective collective information sharing and sense-making.
- I am a fan of Will and Ariel Durant, and strongly recommend their capstone book, The Lessons of History. You cannot be the best engineer without understanding the history, not only of engineering, but of the complex societies within which the engineering knowledge and applications were developed.
- How we choose to educate—how we as individuals choose to allow ourselves to be educated, really matters.
- I firmly believe that the purpose of engineering is to serve humanity. The “social problem” revolves around issues of water, food, energy, shelter, and transport. You cannot be the best engineer without understanding community and the history of a specific culture that today is beset by a failure of integrity across all the paradigms—schools, churches, business, media, government.
- Brass engineers do materials. Silver engineers do processing systems. Gold engineers do spiritual social engineering in passing, as an integral part of their engineering.
- Here are a few thoughts on intelligent engineering. PAUSE
- As much as an engineer may want to keep the talking frog or kiss the frog and maybe get a princess, to kiss or not to kiss in an inter-disciplinary question.
- There is such a thing as evil in the world and people willing to perpetuate it. That’s the sad reality. However, there is another reality, and that is the reality of a mismatch between our national security capabilities as funded by $500 billion of your dollars each year, and what we actually need to defend America at home and abroad. When we add our own behavior, from support to dictators to immoral capitalism to a lack of charity and a willingness to throw our military weight around, we add to our global risk.
- As long as the US continues to support 44 dictators for convenience sake, for the sake of cheap oil and below market pricing on natural resources, we will not hold the moral high ground. In my view, each of these problems is the equivalent of termites in the basement of the Republic. Now, I will be the first to recognize terrorists and gangs as part of this larger threat complex, but it is essential that we not lose sight of the larger whole because of a few burning trees. We must address the whole of the problem, not a few isolated bits. This is reality. To paraphrase Trotsky, you may not be interested in reality, but reality is interested in you.
- In modern thinking, a most valuable contribution has been made by the United Nations High-Level Panel on Threats and Challenges. LtGen Dr. Brent Scowcroft, USAF (Ret), was the US member. lEvery one of these threats has engineering implications, and none of these threats can be addressed by engineering alone.
- This is the reality that our Pentagon is not ready to deal with. We have a world that is largely unstable and at war with itself. In 2002—the last year this lovely reference was published—there were 23 conflicts killing over 1000 people a year, 79 killing under 1000 a year, and 175 violent political conflicts internal to a specific country.
- It gets worse. Everyone knows about the Holocaust against those of the Jewish faith during World War II. What most people do not realize is that there have been over 70 genocides in history, and that there are 18 genocides taking place today as we gather here to consider national security and the future of America.
- These ethnic conflicts tend to coincide with conditions of severe deprivation. Note the red line---some of the worst water scarcity and some of the worst ethnic conflicts are along the Russian borders with both the Islamic states of Central Asia, and the Chinese state. Water scarcity is a national security threat that does not receive enough attention.
- At the same time, we are very vulnerable at home. We built our great society on the assumption that there might be occasional acts of God, but never on the assumption that suicidal terrorists would be willing to blow up tunnels, bridges, pipelines, apartment buildings, dams, or banking centers. Our economy, our data, our public health are all hostage to the possibility of suicidal terrorists. Our existing national security capabilities are simply not effective against this threat. There is nothing in the current homeland security program that actually makes America any safer!
- The real world presents America with four distinct threats, each completely different, each requiring completely different national security capabilties. Unfortunately, the military-industrial complex and the Republican political mindset is unwilling to come to grips with such nuances. They remain mired in their Cold War love affair with conventional warfare and really big heavy expensive weapons systems. Three of these four threat classes require very big investments in peaceful preventive measures and in human expertise.
- When you evaluate the Pentagon and what we have today in our national security structure, against the real-world threats, you quickly establish that our capabilities are helpful only 10% of the time. The other 90% of the time we are forced, for lack of mature and considered advance planning, to jury-rig very expensive and always inadequate responses. We need a strong national security program, but it must be a smart program that is relevant to the full range of real world threats.
- These are actual depictions of the US political scene. The really bad news is that the two major parties, roughly 60% of the voters, exclude the other 40% and do not support deliberative inquiry within or among all parties.
- As a former spy, and as one of the founders of the Marine Corps Intelligence Command, I am often frustrated by the obsession that we have with secrecy, and with how we misunderstand intelligence. I will tell you what I have learned in the past sixteen years. I have learned that 90% of what we call intelligence is not secret; and I have learned that at least 70% of what we need to know and need to share is not intelligence. These pie charts depict my view of what is share-able among the seven tribes without any attention to restricted, private, or secret information. We are not going for the green, and we need to.
- This is reality, and was the subject of my thesis for my second graduate degree.
- The feedback loops between citizens providing the revenue, legislators allocating the revenue, bureaucrats obligating the revenue, and corporations spending the revenue, have all been broken and what little information passes between and among the groups is partial, biases, often false, and not at all accessible to most people.
- These are the categories for which I provide an annotated bibliography for the larger context within which engineers might seek to develop their practice. Available online at www.oss.net/PIG.
- This is a visual depiction of how the US taxpayer dollar is spent. Note the predominance of the Department of Defense in contract to all other agencies focused on the domestic and international needs of the public that is paying the bills.
- Here is a snapshot of the short-version of this brief. PAUSE
- Compare Western view—John Ralston Saul calls modern thinkers “Voltaire’s Bastards”—with Whole Earth and some would say Eastern reality.
- You can choose to be a mechanic who does the bidding of others without your own context, or you can choose to be “engaged in the Whole” and serve instead as a healer that can connect systems, fix systems, avoid harmful systems, and make the Whole better for humanity.
- Western decision making has some serious flaws. Note the importance of accountability, integrity, diversity, transparency in the more natural decision-making.
- This is a very simple version of a more complex chart that I provide later in the brief. The bottom line is that engineers and scientists cannot be the best unless they embrace the larger context of being, nature, man, and God.
- The collective is the higher authority. Here are a few criteria by which the collective might evaluate your work.
- The Golden Rule appears to be a constant across all religions, and also makes practical sense.
- The sources of collective power have changed over time. We are now at the end of middle rational, and on the verge of recognizing integral consciousness and Whole Earth Engineering as the highest power, one in which the individual is both an individual and a fully integrated member of multiple groups that interact with dignity, ethics, and transparency. This is called Panarchy.
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- I respect Putin and believe that his call for honest appraisal of the past is very important. PAUSE
- Fortunately, there are positive countervailing trends. Unfortunately, we are coming off 600 years of negative (pre-1491 was positive in the Americas) and the forces of evil are entrenched. Retaking our government and our planet will require Extreme Hacking.
- These are the key negative trends. I will answer any and all questions at my evening presentation. As engineers, note especially that Acts of Man are creating Acts of God. KATRINA was caused by man’s paving over the Mississippi wetlands. As an engineer, you must iunderstand the consequences of bad engineering, and withdraw from those projects that are likely to cause harm to present or future generations. PAUSE.
- I will not belabor this. Education is stove-piped, didactic—meaning you listen, we professors talk—and it does not allow for team learning, an emphasis on sharing and multi-cultural sense-making, or true interdisciplinary inquiry.
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- Dick Klavans and Brad Ashford put this together, and you can see the isolation of all the individual disciplines. Cognitive Science is emerging, and with some reluctance academia is beginning to accept Collective Intelligence as a humanities counterpart to Cognitive Science. We are not yet ready to integrate Conscious Evolution as the ultimate process of all engineering, all humanities knowledge in concert, but this small diagram shows Integrity plus Intelligence, Ethics plus Energy, coming together to engineer CS, CI, and CE.
- Here you are. I suspect most of you are operating on 2% of the relevant information, and if I accomplish one thing only, it is my hope that you will see that if you are to be the best possible engineer, you must get a grip on all information in all languages all the time.
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- http://www.uwsp.edu/cnr/gem/ambassador/EarthSystems1.3.05small2.jpg PAUSE
- Co-Creation is pure engineering, but dealing with social, human, and Earth engineering.
- This is a depiction of just a few of the ways in which we can think about Africa.
- Here we see both the size of Africa—few in the West realize that Africa is as larger as China, the EU, and the US combined. On the other half of this slide we see the political history of Africa, one that we can reasonably blame for a great deal of Africa’s current problems.
- Sri Lanka just succeeded in eliminating the Tamil Nation after first categorizing it as a terrorist group. The reality is that every map going back hundreds of years has shown the distinct Tamil Nation at varying stages of its long history.
- This is one of my favorite slides. The cover of the book corresponding to each of these pathologies is shown. As a side note, adding Forgotten Knowledge, there has been a recent public discussion of how we can no longer manufacture the Trident missile. They lost critical files for a critical component. I am NOT making this up!
- PAUSE You can come back to this at another time. INTEGRITY is fundamental to all that we strive to do.
- We have erred in our wanton ignorance and often malicious repression of indigenous knowledge. Mayan Indians needed to work only 60 days out of the year to keep their families safe and prosperous, and the 25,000 miles of rock road they put down are still there today.
- A professor at Cambridge University in England, Philipp Allott, has written a book that puts forward an excellent case for concluding that the Treaty of Westphalia was a huge wrong turn. The concept of sovereignty not only imposed many artificial political boundaries on tribes that had “lived free” for centuries, but it also endowed the so-called sovereign nations with immunity to impunity for all actions within their borders, including human rights violations and arfistocratic kleptocracy.
- I borrowed this illustration from my friend Steve Arnold, author of two books on Google and a top analytic mind with respect to information technology. I added the red to show how Google’s patented Programmable Search Engine manipulates search results so as to show you, the searcher, what someone else has paid to force in front of you. I consider this to be a good example of great engineering with zero integrity.
- Here are three quick looks at “true costs” as “missing information” that could—if easily available to the public—redirect entire markets.
- Summing up, this is the state of man as an intellectual and emotional retard today.
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- In contrast, this is the “good holistic engineer” or citizen. It boils down to intelligence and integrity.
- This is one of a number of books that I admire in this domain, note the key points that the author makes. PAUSE
- With this slide I want to emphasize the importance of process engineering in relation to materials engineering, and at the same time depict four possible information scenarios in relation to any given engineering challenge.
- Following on from the original thinking of the author, here are pairs of terms that are very important as a foundation for differentiating “good” engineering from “bad” engineering. PAUSE
- I could easily create an entire year’s course on this one slide, so I will be very brief here. This is something I created in 1979 as a young Marine lieutenant, using the two-volume Syntopicon that comprise the beginning of the 50+ volume Great Books from the University of Chicago. Take the time—some other time—to study this in detail. The logic of the terms IN RELATION to one another, is worthy of your reflection.
- This slide is the heart of my 1976 thesis on predicting and addressing revolution across all of the major domains within which human society operates. You can find the original thesis at www.oss.net under Early Papers. It includes the operationalization (identification of specific data that can be collected to demonstrate the condition’s existence and degree) of each of the factors.
- In 1988 I created a much more complex model for evaluating 144 factors, each with five degrees of difficulty, related to the global expeditionary environment that the Marine Corps Intelligence Command was supposed to address. The only point I will make here is that there are four levels of analysis—strategic, operational, tactical, and technical—and it is imperative that all endeavors understand the military, civil, and natural-geographic conditions, constraints, and consequences.
- The threat (or the cost or the benefit or the condequences) of any engineering endeavor will change depending on the level of analysis. In Iraq, for example, we found that first class engineering at the tactical level was completely destroyed by a failure at the operational level.
- This is the heart of my second book, THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE: Personal, Public, & Political. It is available free online, at www.oss.net, and I encourage you to read chapter 15, “New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence.” Every one of those rules has adaptability relevant to engineering.
- It is a sad truth that most academic, corporate, law enforcement, and governance “investigations” are carried out in the home country language, and are generally ignorant of most of the knowledge that is only available in the 33 core languages that are active today, and even less conscious of the other 150 languages still relevant and alive.
- After thirty years in government, I reject the continuing emphasis on virtual colonialism, unilateral militarism, and predatory immoral capitalism. I created Earth Intelligence Network, recruiting 23 co-founders, because I firmly believe that in combination, public intelligence and public integrity are capable of transforming our world. PAUSE
- We do not have the time to discuss this in detail, but I will just emphasize the vital importance of INTEGRITY in every aspect of the information-intelligence cycle, with leadership integrity being utterly essential. I have lectures online that can be easily accessed via www.oss.net/BASIC.
- Complex societies have complex information environments, and we must recognize that simple approaches to information and intelligence that sufficed in the past will no longer do. Most of the world is at best somewhere between 3rd and 4th Generation Information Operations (IO). Our challenge—and my book on INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time addresses this in detai—is to get a grip on the totality of the information bearing on our issues. See especially the Technical Preface by Robert Garigue (RIP), an extraordinary Canadian expert on information warfare and the semantics of war and peace.
- Here I strive to depict the essential importance of being able to access, integrate, and make sense of all information in all languages across science, humanities, faith, at all levels from local to global. PAUSE
- This is my newest analytic model, created after I was inspired by the UN High-Level Panel on Threats and Challenges. I studied the past 20 years or so of US Presidential transitions, and arrived at 12 core policy areas that appear to be consistently recongized. I then thought about what countries are certain to define the future on the basis of demography alone. PAUSE
- This is a model I created in the 1990’s that emphasizes human knowledge and also serves to define dumb versus smart organizations. Most governments and corporations are still stuck in Quadrant I and very resistant to embracing Quadran II or paying to actively exploit Quadrant III. PAUSE
- This slide was created by Jan Herring, former National Intelligence Officer for Science & Technology, and today a partner in the Academy of Competitive Intelligence, which I recommend to all of you . I use this slide to point out the the bulk of what we need to do our jobs is both inexpensive, and easy to share.
- Here is a view of the profound change in our information challenge--we are now at a point where we need to respect and understand individual human beings as the basic unit of measure in devising all engineering and other processes.
- This is a proposed means of addressing our need for an EarthGame™ and World Brain that allows for all individuals to both have access to all information all the time, and also be part of all deliberative networks of interest to them. PAUSE
- I grew up around the world, and believe that Asia, Africa, and South America all need their own regional information sharing and sense-making networks. Although as a private citizen with no access to secrets I focus strictly on the ethical legal information sources and methods, as a former spy it is obvious to me that the same centres and networks could also orchestrate clandestine, covert, and counterintelligence operations of mutual benefit. Our highest priority must be to optimize the new craft of intelligence among and between all the tribes of intelligence, and among all governments.
- US secret intelligence is inside out and upside down. It is very expensive, very unreliable, and very incomplete. I totally agree with the Swedish military view that we must move toward multinational, multiagency, multidisciplinary, multidomain information sharing, and to that I have added sense-making as well, to arrive at M4IS2 as the new code. When combined, multinational information operations and full exploitation of open sources of information create Information Operations Squared or IO2.
- Here are eight core functionalities that have not been integrated, although Alta Vista came close before it lost its key personnel to Google.
- The collective intelligence of all the people, regardless of their income, professional, educational level, sex or race or religion, can be harnessed by connecting information to a budget. This slide depicts a global implementation of the participatory budgeting initative that proved so successful in Puerto Alegre, Brazil.
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- Bill Clinton is articulating a fear I see creeping across the non-profit organizations that have relied for major grants from corporations and foundations should primary function is tax avoidance. However, this is actually good news, because when we can do global peer to peer charitable giving, connecting the one billion rich with the five billion poor at the item level of giving—and orchestrate chains of giving—we will in the aggregate not only control more money than any combination of organizations, but we will also be more agile, more transparent, and more effective.
- America must be strong. Our challenges are so great that there is no possibility of reducing our investment in national security. We should, however, be smart strong, not stupid strong. Although the US military has been told that peacekeeping is now on a par with waging war, and there has been much discussion of stabilization and reconstruction, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief, we still have not taken the necessary step of redirecting $100B to $200B from war to peace. We still have a “big war” military relevant to only 10% of the threat.
- It is now possible, and especially so if key countries such as China, India, and Malaysia (and in my own mind, Iran and Turkey as well as Venezuela), to create a global online Range of Needs Table at the item or household level. Using cell phones to enter “peace targets,” and using call centers as needed to manage the national, regional, and global “tables,” it is now possible to both harmonize organizational giving, and to provide a means for the one billion rich to give to the five billion poor at a $1 to $100 level.
- I was inspired in creating this slide by Professor Meech’s own depiction of the cost recovery curve. You can study this latter, just note the definition of the two axis and the outcome that is sought. Earth, and the Cosmos, are engineering challenges.
- Engineering interventions, in my view, must be fully integrated and blend Human and Social Engineering with Earth Engineering. Listed here are a handful of domains where I believe that engineering must excell. They are information, cultural, and human intensive.
- I borrowed this from the book as listed, to show the broader areas where engineering is undergoing a sea change.
- It’s all connected. Why are we using water we don’t have to flush oil we don’t need or grow grain we cannot eat to fuel cars that should be running on natural gas or not running at all? To take one simple example, every engineering process has major water implications. Every engineering process has “true cost” on the inputs side, and on the outputs side. We must be able to do engineering that is holistic and that can take into account all costs and benefits.
- If I were to choose another word to emphasize beyond integrity, it would be synthesis, which also implies the casting of a very wide net for disparate information in all languages, disciplines, and mediums.
- This is the next book that I will be publishing. In their rush to monetize problems and solutions, governments and corporations have overlooked the intangible value of truth, trust, and time. As Clausewitz said, the moral is to the physical as ten to one. Engineering can be moral or immoral. My view is only sustainable engineering, firmly grounded in the humanities, with very high integrity, is moral.
- Inspired by and drawn from http://www.arnet.gov/comp/seven_steps/step3c.html Here is a seven step program for engineers, as a small foundation for reflection.
- A careful examination of the Lord’s Prayer suggests that we are in fact charged with creating Heaven on Earth, and so we should.
- The single best investment, dollar for dollar, is in the education of women. I have not discussed my concept for educating the five billion poor one cell call at a time, with call centers that can monetize the questions while providing the easily availabie answers. For more information about that visit Earth Intelligence Network. So—One Planet, One God, One We.
- Or not.
- Everything at both my web sites is free. You all have my best wishes, and my hope that you will re-engineer the Earth after first mastering the new craft of public intelligence en passant. Thank you.