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2008 information sharing orientation dia international fellows

This document provides an agenda and overview for a 3-day training on information sharing and analytics for UN personnel from different agencies in Lebanon. The training aims to improve information sharing across UN organizations and identify open source resources. The agenda covers introducing participants and resources, discussing current events, sources and methods for analysis, and conducting a security risk assessment exercise. The overall goal is to enhance the UN's access to and use of multinational information for decision support.

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Information Sharing & Analytics Orientation 7 March 2008 International Intelligence Fellows Program www.oss.net www.earth-intelligence.net Words for Each Slide in Notes
Before We Begin…. The U.S. Intelligence Community Before & After 9/11
Collection Failure Breakdown in Coverage and Language Access Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* NRO NSA FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination 50% Less Costly More Satisfying Does Not Exist SIGINT OSINT HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE 0% 50%
What the Czar Does… I am NOT making this up….
Analytic Matrix for Understanding, Dialog & Action Over Time Affordable, Implementable 50-Year Strategy for Using Public Intelligence to Save Humanity & Earth Credible, Complete Plan for Integrating Public Information to Create Public Understanding and Morally- Sound Sustainable Policies & Harmonized Budgets at Every Level of Action Without Centralizing Anything at All URL: http://www.earth-intelligence.net, Click on about EIN for 10-page brochure.
Earth Intelligence Network: High-Level Threat Summary + Two Breach of Trust Demands Electoral Reform Insist on legislation passing by 4 July‘08 Poverty • Pandemic • 5 billion globally • Increasing in USA • Foundation for all other threats Infectious Disease • Without borders • Kills rich & leaders • Prevention critical • Low cost medicine Environmental Degradation • Changes that took 10,000 yrs now take 3 • Toxicity of everything • Poisoned earth/water Inter-State Conflict • Security Council members sell the guns • Ban on arms exports • Regional peace nets Civil War • Corruption • Dictators (42 of 44 supported by USA) • Over basics of life Genocide • Resource scarcity • Lifetime of learned hatreds • Israel must adapt Other Atrocities • Child slavery • Child prostitution • By name kidnapping • Murder for body parts Proliferation • Cluster bombs, land mines, & small arms • Peaceful energy trumps nuclear bombs Terrorism • Cannot win “war” against a “tactic” • Law enforcement can resolve this • Too much on military, not enough on aid Transnational Crime • $2 trillion a year • Vatican, Wall Street, USG, Mafia all are intertwined • Drug cash is liquidity Corruption • One man’s bribe is a community’s loss of all • Open Money and Open Books can fix • Must improve salaries across the board Fraud • Apply Tobin Tax of . 0006 to all Federal Reserve transactions • IRS gets same books as stockholders • “True Costs” up front
Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Policy Summary Debt. $9 Trillion is “a lot,” Debt scales & incapacitates. USA Insolvent. MUST HAVE a Balanced Budget 25 years out. Agriculture • Local & Organic • Deep Root Farming • Family/Community Owned Farming Diplomacy • Dogma kills • Restore USIA • Need global information sharing Economy • End CEO Greed • $10/hr minimum wage • Full employment • LOCAL supply chain Education • Self-paced Online • Apprenticeships • Team Learning • Learn to learn Energy • Wind & Solar NOW • Portable Hydrogen • Two-way Grid • Green capitalism Family • One job per couple • End overtime • Community Centers • Build neighborhoods Health • Lifestyle • Environment • Natural Cures • Generic at 1% of cost Immigration • Enforce Labor Law • GLOBAL standards •Border Patrol +25,000 • National Service 2 yrs Justice • Pardon all marijuana offenders • Wind down the prison-slave complex • Eliminate corporate “personality” amnesty Security • Wage peace not war •Reduce the military-industrial complex • Belief systems and morality are core. • Connect 5B poor Society • Universal service • Universal health care • Preventive medicine • English required for citizenship & extended residence Water • Reflect True Cost • Global Manhattan Project to restore aquifers, push salt back • Regional Water Authorities (Global)
Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Challengers Summary Eight Challengers, Four Methods Our only hope is to create an EarthGame™ the Challengers Can Use Brazil • Demographic power • Energy independent • Macau connection to China China • Energy Crisis • Water Crisis • Doing well on poverty • Exporting wombs India • Water crisis • Most complex mix • IT rich, farm poor • Merits investments Indonesia • Proving resilient • Rich in resources • Key to anti-piracy • Could lead region Iran • We overturned their democracy • Persians are not ragheads • Get over it & deal Russia • Putin on a roll • Buffer on China only if we keep it European • Enormous potential • Embrace & assist Venezuela • Populism is not socialism • Energy independent • Charismatic leaders can be ignorant Wild Cards • Congo •Malaysia • Pakistan • South Africa • Turkey Budget • Balanced budget mandatory • Medicare okay if go with generic drugs • Too much on spies & military, shift $250B/yr Design • Sustainable • Cradle to Cradle • Lease don’t buy • Minimize shipping • End absentee owners • Public Health EarthGame™ • Reality plus budgets plus active citizens online levels the field • For one third of war costs, can eliminate all ten high-level threats “True Costs” • Every product and service can be listed in online database • End-user can get true costs at point of sale via cell phone
Affordable NOW First, get US to pay for Multinational Decision Support Centre and ASG/DS Second, creat $1 trillion a year Range of Gifts Table posted online Third, host an annual Harmonized Giving Conference for Foundations, Governments, and Corporations, with an individual donor table online.
DSS Mission Statement • The Department of Safety and Security is responsible for providing leadership, operational support and oversight of the security management system to enable the safest and most efficient conduct of the programmes and activities of the United Nations System. • Observation: Information is the modern means for achieving security, both for protection of UN personnel, facilities, organizations, and missions, and for the host member states and indigenous or migrant populations.
DSS Deficiencies of Concern • Threat Risk Assessments are delayed & incomplete • Threat Risk Assessments do not reflect 360° UN System view nor regional/adjacent threat information • Threat Risk Assessments do not have a well-founded directory of Indicators, Accelerators, and Triggers relevant to UN System security. • UN Missions & individual UN agencies or forces have no integrated decision-support mechanism helpful to one and all. • UN System has no global directory of sources with defined biases, sponsors, or agendas. • UN System is not perceived as having an effective but totally moral, legal, ethical information system helpful to both the UN System & Host Government. • UN System does not have safe, efficient, or reliable (constant) means of sharing helpful information across all UN System boundaries (agencies, countries, missions, locations) • UN System information is not efficiently acquired, exploited, or shared • UN System has no means for identifying relevant sources, softwares, and services for multinational information sharing and internal analytics. • UN System is not recognizing information as a major contributor to security.
DSS Host Overview • We Must Connect – DPA – DPI – DPKO – DSS – All Other • Participating Groups – UNIIIC – UNIFIL – ESCWA – DSS – UNTSO – UNDOF • Three P’s – Posture – Perception – Political Compromise • Fundamentals – Food & Water – Shelter – Clothing – Education – Security • JOC/JMAC useful model • Member Nations creating Open Source Intelligence units (e.g. Scotland Yard) that have been very effective in achieving improved security. Sharing Legal Ethical Information Can Enhance Security & Performance for All
Nine Pillars of Vulnerability Mitigation in UN System Security • POLITICAL COMPROMISE • MEDIA MANAGEMENT • MANDATE & MISSION • POSTURE & PERCEPTION • INFORMATION MANAGEMENT • OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES • PHYSICAL SECURITY • TECHNICAL SECURITY • HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (Defensive Passive Counter- Surveillance, Surveillance Detection, NOT Offensive Penetration) Information—Open, Legal, Ethical Information—is the Essential Means for Mitigating All Nine UN System Vulnerabilities While Also Contributing to UN System Efficiency in Every Organization, at Every Level, for Every Function and Mission.
Conceptual Opportunity • IOSAS – Integrated – Open – Source – Analytical – Support • UNODIN – United – Nations – Open-Source – Decision-Support – Information – Network Mission Joint Operations Centers and Force Joint Military Analysis Centers exist now, at an elementary level as conceptualized by MajGen Cammaert. Our endeavors will over time dramatically improve both JOC & JMAC concepts, doctrine, manning, equipping, training, outsourcing, sourcing, & analytics. Our objective over the next 20 years is to establish a global grid that makes the UN System the world’s best Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support capability in support of peace and prosperity. Information should be the nerves, blood, and brain of the UN System.
Goal of the Training Initiative • The goal of this training initiative is to find ways to efficiently and effectively navigate the broad spectrum of open source material available, and to integrate pertinent elements of the 80% into the 20% available from currently recognized national and UN sources into an Integrated Open Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) mechanism. 1 Open Source Information 2 1. Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions 2. UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO
Three-Day Plan Thursday • Introductions of Participants • Strategic View of Multinational Information Operations • Discussion of Two Online Guides with Links: – www.oss.net/BASIC – www.oss.net/LIBRARY • Discussion of Current Event Information • Participant Identification of Top Issues for Discussion • Sources & Methods (eg NATO) • How to Create a Wiki for Any Mission (eg30 ExpertWiki) NOTE: This gathering has three purposes: 1. To introduce six UN Lebanon groups to one another in person for improved sharing & support. 2. To identify global online and offline resources immediately available, free, to all participants.& their colleagues 3. To begin the process, with this “Class Before One” of defining how best to enhance UN access to and exploitation of multinational information among DSS, DPA, DPI, IM. Friday • Sources – 24/7 Call-In Number – Eight Sharing Tribes – Source Directory – Belief Systems – Financial Sources – Subscription Sources – Password-Protected • Methods – Internet Speed – Online versus Personal – Cultural Factors – Creating Flow – Forecasting – Summaries & Opinions • Indicators, Accelerants, & Triggers (Share & Improve) • Empowering Technologies – Ingestion – Sense-Making – Sharing – SILOBREAKER • Organizational Engineering – The Boss – The Source – The Budget – The Public Saturday • Security Risk Assessment (Training Exercise) - Brief Senior Person from Each of Six UN Elements - Establish missing Essential Elements of Information (EEI) - Discuss the needs of senior officers (e.g. Commissioner, spokesperson for UNIFIL) • Open Dialog • Challenge Questions • Specify follow-up actions for instructor and for participants in next thirty days • Instructor to develop a proposed syllabus for UN DSS open source decision support information network (UNODIN) and with help from participants, a draft UN Handbook on Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support. NOTE: all opinions are personal and off the record.
Class Before One • A training concept—before the first “official” class, there is always a “Class Before One” that helps develop the need, the solution, and the presentation. • You are the Class Before One. Be very proud of this, each of you is a UN System decision-support pioneer.
Imagine the UN System as a Wealth Creation Network Information Management is the center of gravity for UN System.
Public Advantage I We were here in 2006… 9-11 & Katrina, then multiple policy failures Here in 2008! US public scared back into reading and thinking; 75K amputees, GAO declares USA insolvent, 27 secessionist movements, “home rule” up, and corporate personality down. Critical Junctures
TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG Public Advantage II SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS OPEN SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW Localized Resilience Sustainable Reality-Based Transpartisan Budgets
Public Advantage III Expert Forum Weekly Review Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex
Public Advantage IV National Military Law Enforcement Business Secrets "Intelligence" "Protected" Open Targeting Signals Imagery Order of Battle Mapping Undercover Investigation Privacy Metrics Client Information Pricing Information Cost Information External Information Academic NGO-Media Citizen+ Secret Sensitive Private Open Secret Sensitive Private Open Secret Sensitive Private Open
Public Advantage V This is the real “End Game”
Future Vision for Global Information Sharing & Management
Organizations Fateh Al-Islam Al Qaeda Gama´a al-Islamiyya Fatah Party Show More Key Phrases Refugee Camp Terrorist Group Martyrdom Allotment Show More Topics Civil Disruption / Riots Democratization Land Forces Territorial Disputes Show More Cities Tripoli (Libya) Beirut Damascus ʿAmman Show More Countries Lebanon Syria United States Israel Show More Current Story Lebanon: Fatah al-Islam No. 2 killed Documents matching your search Documents | Stories All (67) | News (67) | Reports (0) | Blogs (0) | Audio/Video (0) | Fact Sheets (0) Documents Sort by: Date | Relevance While Gaza burns Haaretz 08/21/2007 Quotes ...near the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared where Fatah Islam militants have been fighting Lebanese soldiers for more than two months. "Cabinet was informed by Interior Minister Hassan Sabei that Lebanese security forces have killed the Fatah Islam's No 2 in the Abu Samra neighbourhood" in Tripoli, Aridi told reporters following a Cabinet meeting last night [08/07/2007] DDI News - Lebanon announces killing Fatah Islam deputy commander The group said it was bringing the 'good news to the Muslims of the martyrdom of a noble brother,' according to the statement. "We in the Fatah Islam movement and all the true mujahideen, pledge to God to avenge our brother's blood from the infidels and the renegades" The authenticity of the statement, posted on a Web site which commonly carries messages from Al Qaeda and other militant groups, could not be independently... [08/09/2007] FOXNews.com - Fatah Islam's No. 2 Killed by Lebanese Troops • www.silobreaker.com is the single best tool, free for now • Sense-making tools can be applied to both their content and yours.
Intelligence = Decision Support • Intelligence is a process that creates decision-support. • It is NOT defined by secret sources & methods. • The Brahimi Report, Military Advisors to the Secretary General, and The High Level Threat Panel all validate urgency of creating a UN/NGO global decision support and multinational information sharing network.
Orientation, Not Micro-Training • You will learn more on your own, and by sharing with one another, than can be taught here in three days • www.oss.net/BASIC has the primary links • www.oss.net/LIBRARY has 30,000 pages from 750+ speakers, this directory can be sorted and also searched • Consider viewing the lectures and movies first, especially the lectures on Analysis & New Rules, and the movie on Creating the World Brain.
Analysis is a Profession • Four D’s – Discovery – Discrimination – Distillation – Delivery • If you do nothing else, read the Analytic Tradecraft booklet by Jack Davis, easily accessed online, free, via www.oss.net/BASIC. • Facts Are Not Enough – History – Cultural Context – Adjacent Players – Localized Indicators, Accelerators, Triggers – Sharing 24/7 – Cast a Wide Net – Wild Cards Abound – Thinking Matters More Than Technology
Ten High-Level Threats • Poverty • Infectious Disease • Environmental Degradation • Inter-State Conflict • Civil War • Genocide • Other Atrocities • Proliferation • Terrorism • Transnational Crime Every Mission Confronts These Ten Threats One Way or Another— Avoid Narrow Focus, Always See the Forest, Not Just The Tree in Front of You
Open Sources & Ten Threats • Economic and social threats including 95% – poverty, 99% – infectious disease and 95% – environmental degradation 90% • Inter-State conflict 75% • Internal conflict, including 90% – civil war, 80% – genocide and 95% – other large-scale atrocities 95% • Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons (proliferation) 75% • Terrorism 80% • Transnational organized crime 80% On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address the ten high-level threats, but the UN System’s Information Management is not.
Scotland Yard OSINT 1. Created Open Source Branch in SO-11 in 1995 2. This helped put more terrorists and arms smugglers in jail faster and cheaper (instead of 3000 Euro for a surveillance team, 30 Euro for an address) 3. Unanticipated bonus: increased property and financial assets that could be confiscated from convicted organized crime bosses.
Eastern Congo
Twelve Action Areas • Agriculture • Diplomacy • Economy • Education • Energy • Family • Health • Immigration/Migration • Justice • Security • Society • Water Every Mission Has Narrow Channels and Deep Bureaucracies. Information Sharing is a Proper Ethical Means for Enhancing Effectiveness. If Any Action Area is Overlooked, Boss Needs to Know This.
Analysis Cannot Do It All Prediction/Prevention Self protection Environmental Security Retaliation You Everyone Else 1. Improve Sources 2. Improve Sharing 3. Improve Analysis 4. Improve Decisions by Supported Bosses
Model for Analytic Purpose Probability Surprise Casualty Potential
Hezbollah, Iran, Regional Surprise Warning, meaning, need, elsewhere • 14 Aug 07 News Release • Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah promises “surprise” if Israel attacks Lebanon again. • Hezbollah has not been disarmed—15,000 rockets remain hidden (other source) • Lebanon divided, Israeli soldiers still captive, situation is volatile • Direct negotiations could help, truth & reconciliation • Israel may not appreciate full extent of Iranian ability to provide supporting attacks, e.g. exploding buildings in Tel Aviv, cutting of US land supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad, Sunburn missile attack against Maritime Force. • Israel, not Iran or Syria, is the most likely to take unilateral violent action that will trigger the “surprise.” Probability: High Damage: Very High Surprise: Strikes Outside of Lebanon, Not by Hezbollah Israel 9-11 in Tel Aviv
Why Analysts Are Special The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! INFORMATION TIME Actionable Intelligence Available Information Complex Organizations are Drowning in Information. Analytic Tradecraft, Applied by Analysts, is the Solution.
Levels of Analysis: Threat Changes! Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness STRATEGIC Integrated Application OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Sustainability Geographic Location Civil Allies Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance Military Availability Geographic Resources Civil Stability Military Reliability Geographic Terrain Civil Psychology Military Lethality Geographic Atmosphere Civil Infrastructure This is very important. The threat changes depending on the level of analysis, and the threat is distinct, more on this shortly, in relation to the UN Mission, fixed facilities, mobile units, and individuals with both fixed homes and mobile platforms.
Creating an Analysis Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation • Six people can leverage global open sources for an entire Ministry or Service or Command • This reduces duplication while increasing decision support to all bosses • Saves money and creates value that can be shared with host country and others Senior All-Source Collection Manager Internet Specialist Commercial Online Expert Primary Research External Contracts All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager
Seven Tribes (Eight) Military Law Enforcement Business Religions, Clans, Labor Unions, Citizen Observers Academic National NGOs Media
New Decision-Support Paradigm OLD • NGO’s Don’t “Do” • Policy Over Intelligence • Unilateral • Mostly Secret • Technical Emphasis • Collection Emphasis • One-language filter • Mistakes hidden • Short-term thinking NEW • Brahimi Report ++ • Intelligence Over Policy • Multilateral • Mostly Public • Human Emphasis • Analysis Emphasis • Multi-lingual filters • Mistakes acknowledged • Long-term thinking
Open Source Intelligence I Lessons of History China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. I Lessons of History • Neither the academics nor the government have done well here. • We need to fund both specialists in history, and a massive digitization project for Chinese, Islamic, other key histories.
Open Source Intelligence II Multinational Burden Sharing II Global Coverage Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning • No one has the time, money, or ability to cover the world. • We must find new means of sharing the burden of collection, translation, digitization of global open sources in 33+ languages. • The Internet is vital.
Open Source Intelligence III Leveraging the Private Sector • We must establish open protocols for linking and leveraging the other tribes: military, law enforcement, business, academic, NGO-media, and religious. • A global intelligence federation is needed. III National Intelligence Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
This Is Reality: We Go For The Green! Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 Secrets "Intelligence" "Protected" Open Targeting Signals Imagery Order of Battle Mapping Undercover Investigation Privacy Metrics Secret Sensitive Private Open Secret Sensitive Private Open Information-Sharing & Decision-Support Client Information Pricing Information Cost Information External Information Secrets "Intelligence" "Protected" Open
Facing Reality • Amilcar Cabral, African freedom fighter (1924-1973): Hide nothing from the masses of our people. Tell no lies. Expose lies whenever they are told. Mask no difficulties, mistakes, failures. Claim no easy victories. ... Our experience has shown us that in the general framework of daily struggle, this battle against ourselves, this struggle against our own weaknesses ... is the most difficult of all. • Henry Stiller, DG of Histen Riller, at French Information Congress, IDT ’93: 95% de l’information don’t une enterprise a besoin peut s’aquiris par des moyens honorables. • Tony Zinni, former CINCCENT: 80% of what I needed to know as CINCENT I got from open sources rather than classified reporting. And within the remaining 20%, if I knew what to look for, I found another 16%. At the end of it all, classified intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge. • Daniel Elsberg, speaking to Henry Kissinger: The danger is, you’ll become like a moron. You’ll become incapable of learning from most people in the world, no matter how much experience they have in their particular areas that may be much greater than yours” [because of your blind faith in the value of your narrow and often incorrect secret information]. • Ted Shackley, Clandestine & Covert Operations Leader: In short, the collapse of the communist system in Central Europe has created a new situation for intelligence collectors. I estimate, based in part on my commercial discussions since 1990 in East Germany, Poland, Albania, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, that 80 percent of what is on any intelligence agency’s wish list for this area as of 1991 is now available overtly. Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
Enhancing Performance I Data standards and sharing matter Open Human It’s the back and forth that allows DNA to define life. • From north to south, east to west, if the information is not entered digitally and according to some agreed upon standard, it will not be shared and will not contribute to UN early warning or decision support. Imagery Signals Tip of the hat to the Director of the NIA in South Africa for this important insight.
Enhancing Performance II 24/7 Geospatial “Plot” is Vital • There is no substitute for a 24/7 watch center that has a geospatial “plot” and can combine a knowledge of intelligence sources with a real-world depiction of locations, vehicles, targets, and individuals.
Enhancing Performance III Fail in Isolation, Thrive in Combination • We are our own worst enemy. • Compartmentation and security are the enemy of timely intelligence. • Sources achieve their greatest effect when combined, not when “Okay, so maybe I was wrong not isolated. to tell you about my source--but you should have told me first…...”
The Big Picture Four processing quadrants III - External Information EXTERNAL Data Visualization Expert Hires “Just Enough, Just in Time” Business Intelligence Institutionalized Local Knowledge Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring Customer Monitoring TECHNICAL HUMAN Vendor Reporting INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Data Conversion Churning (Rotationals) Trip Reports Internal Reporting Government Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital™ Rolodexes/E-Mail Personal Brand Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Project/Group Management Training E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
Processing Quadrant #1 Knowledge Management • Know what you know • Do not lose data, insights, links • Integrate people, projects, vendors, times, places, objects • Optimize application of technology to internal information INTERNAL • Internal Reporting • Vendor Reporting • Project Management • Data Conversion • Automated Analysis
Processing Quadrant #2 Collaborative Work • Human Capital • Inherent in People • Who They Know • How They Know • When They Know • What They Do • Who They Tell • How They Feel INSIGHT • Employee Brand Names • Rolodexes • E-Mail Directories • Cell Telephone Networks • Trip Reports • Rotationals • Training
Processing Quadrant #3 External Information Acquisition • Peter Drucker says this (external) must be the focal point for the next 50 years of innovation • OLD: spend on bodies & technology • NEW: spend on external information services in all languages, from all sources, all the time EXTERNAL • Local knowledge • Expert hires “just enough, just in time” • Customer monitoring • Government monitoring • Technology monitoring • Environment monitoring • Legal, ethical, open!
Processing Quadrant #4 Organizational Intelligence • Data standards • Data entry mandated • Storage & retrieval • Historical access without legacy system training • Employee shoeboxes integrated/not lost MEMORY • Intellectual Property • Organizational Memory • Meta-Data • History of Information • Electronic/Human Links • Survive Human Turnover
Processing Desktop: Analytic Toolkit Finished Intelligence and Reporting Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Publishing and Word Processing Collaborative Work Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Clustering and Linking of Related Data Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Structured Argument Analysis Modeling and Simulations Detection of Alert Situations Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Desktop Graphic and Map- Based Visualization Detection of Changing Trends Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats of Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information A B C Eighteen Computer- Assisted Capabilities
Processing Desktop No Easy Solutions, Not Integrated PPllaann EExxtteenndd I2 Analyst Notebook **Plumtree Corporate Portal EDGE? RReeppoorrtt SShhaarree OSALAT Excaliber Copernic CCoolllleecctt Topic Analyst Workbench Identifier, SIFT, OnTopic, Labrador GMS, Athens Aerotext Intelligent Miner For Text AAnnaallyyzzee Content Extractor Information Portal, Comprendium ClearForest Suite CrimeLink **C-4-U Scout **CI Spider **Knowledge.Works **Market Signal Analyzer **E-Sense **Corporate Intelligence Service **TextAnalyst **Powerize **Strategy! **Wincite **WisdomBuilder Groove? ** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report MindMap? SYSTRAN+? Other CATALYST Elements? DARPA STRONG ANGEL? Google Silobreaker
USSOCOM OSINT TOOLS • These are the specific products used now. They are not integrated. • Collection: Copernic Pro (Internet search and download engine); Teleport Pro (Internet spider); Convera Spider (Spider -- downloads all or selected parts of a website); Inxight StarTree / Crawler (Internet web site relationship mapper) • Process: Copernic Summarizer (Summarizes individual files); SummIT! (Specialty summarizer embedded within Retrievalware and Semio); Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for determination of relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval); Apptek Machine Translation Database (Ibase / Ibridge) ((database for analyst notebook)); Inxight Categorizer (Smart categorizer) • Analyze: Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for predetermination or relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval) • Visualize: Webtas (Allows you to put data into a timeline with corresponding map information); Analyst Notebook (De-facto standard product for link product development but manual in nature— Talend Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) is better tool); Spire (Visualization application with "terrain" map view of data; MapInfo (Mapping package); ARCView / ArcIMS (Mapping package); Propeller (data linages (primarily communications focused); Intranet Brain (Web site mapping); EnFish Onespace (Indexing engine for analyst pc's
Rule 7 “Two levels down” is the new standard • Nation-states are old targeting standard • New standard is at the province, company, and individual level • This is a double order of magnitude increase in the difficulty of being adequate State Targets -- Lots of Assets Organizational Targets -- Very Few Assets Individual Targets -- Virtually No Assets
Rule 13 Cross-fertilization matters more • Old approach: consumer to analyst to collector to source--the linear paradigm • New approach is the diamond paradigm where collectors and analysts help consumers talk directly to sources Consumer Collector Analyst Source
Rule 15 Collaborative Work & Informal Deals Rise • Intelligence collectors and analysts will have personal “brands” • Peer to peer networks will form quickly to tackle new problems • Electronic access more important than physical location
Rule 18 Collection doctrine more sophisticated • FIND the data if you already know it • GET the data if it can be gotten free from an ally or NATO or the church • BUY the data from the private sector • TASK organic collectors as a last resort FIND -- free, internal GET -- free, allies BUY -- low cost TASK -- expensive
Rule 21 Strategic intelligence matters more • Estimative intelligence must be restored as one of the primary objectives of analysis • Intelligence must support preventive action (in advance of the threat’s maturing), and budget trade-off decisions PAST FUTURE NOW OPTIONS
Security Risk Assessment • Political: History, Incidents, UNIFIL Vital • Media: Local, Regional, International • Security: Mission, Facilities, Units in Motion, Individuals (Vulnerabilities & Mitigation) • Important Points of Mention – Place for anything not fitting template – Distinguish between facts and opinions • DIME: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic (UN needs pro-active media strategy, media play, good & bad, vital)
SRA Process and Stages –Introduction –Stage One: Programme Assessment –Stage Two: Threat Assessment –A. Situational Awareness –B. Determination of Threats –Stage Three: Vulnerability Assessment –A. Vulnerabilities –B. Strengths –Stage Four: Risk Analysis –Stage Five: Select Options –A. General Options –B. Improved Minimum Operating Standards (MOSS) –Stage Six: Make Decisions –A. Step One: Determine Priorities and Create a Timeline –B. Step Two: Determine Funding and Resource Needs –Stage Seven: Implementation –Stage Eight: Review and Monitoring A B C 1 2 3 4 1: Mission 2. Facilities 3. Movement 4. Individuals A: Beirut B. North C: South Remember: the Threat CHANGES Depending on the Level of Analysis (e.g. Local versus Provincial versus National)
Amazon Could Be World Brain All Information, All Languages, All the Time Expert Forum OPG VPN Weekly Review One-Stop Shop Displaces Intermediaries & Triples Profit Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams
360° 24/7 All Languages…. UN Could Monetize Its Information
Become the Earth Intelligence Network Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich
Inputs: Twelve Policies Actualized in All Budgets at All Levels Brazil China European Union Indonesia India Indonesia Venezuela Wild Card(s) Russia USA Outputs: Sustainable Solutions for Ten High-Level Threats Solution: Peacekeeping Abandon the War & Transparent Metaphor & Reality-Secrecy, Based Move Budgeting Directly to Information Real-world Real-time Dollars & Sense
Integrated Open-Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) within Missions & Centers Evolved into the Universal Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN) Amazon Expert Published Authors Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 Academic Expert Published Authors Multinational Information Sharing Activity Coalition Civil Affairs Units IO/NGO & Indigenous Practitioners STRATEGIC VIEW OPERATIONAL VIEW
IDEN: Military as hub does not resonate—why not civilians? Robert: Military is “core” force, only integrated force able to move, do, and communicate. Military Hubs Key to low-cost free offline digitization and localized acquisition. Host Govt Host Academia Coalition Military Hub at Home Spoke at CCC Free Online Access & Call Centers BIG PIPE Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 CCC M4IS (Two-Way Reach-Back) Directly responsive to USG Inter-Agency Directly responsive to UN/NGOs in S&R Decision-Support, Predictive Analysis, on Irregular Threats Host LEA Host NGO Host Media Host Civil • Advocacy Groups • Labor Unions • Religions & Tribes Host Business
Regional Information Center D e p u t y f o r P r o c e s s in g M a la y s ia Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 D e p u t y f o r C o lle c t i o n A u s t r a lia O S I N T H U M I N T I M I N T S I G I N T D ig it iz a t io n T r a n s la t io n V is u a liz a t io n A n a ly t ic S u p p o r t D e p u t y f o r A n a ly s is C h in a W a r n in g E s t im a t iv e C o u n t r ie s I s s u e s C h ie f o f C e n t e r S in g a p o r e Deputy for Counterintelligence Japan Deputy for Covert Action Thailand
Political Compromise • Implications for safety and security • Forget about “national” analysis • Focus on regions, tribes, clans, families. • Grasp history as a foundation. • Visualize competing equities. • Value transparency and integrity. • The UN System must always be perceived as moral and free of bias.
Media Management • Media is not just the broadcast “main” media but also the Internet, sermons, and other forms of narrowcast. • Monitoring the media is an essential aspect of situational awareness. • “Spin” is misunderstood as manipulation. The UN System must focus on getting its message into all forms of media, this is a vital aspect of “intangible” security.
Mandate & Mission • The UN mandates and mission are inherently flawed for lack of adequate decision support, inclusive of a grasp of history and a nuanced understanding of all regional actors. • Security comes from accuracy of understanding, before and during the mission.
Posture & Perception • Posture defines perception. A lack of clear communication to every actor of relevance to the UN System is a death wish. • Posture is a message. • Perception is the mission. • Every action the UN System takes to communicate its goodness, its good works, is one less bullet, one less bomb.
Information Management • The UN System is operating at less than 20% of capacity for two simple reasons: – Lack of 100MB Internet access for every UN employee at work and at rest. – Lack of access to the 80% of the open source information needed to be effective at the strategic, operational (regional), tactical, and technical levels. • Information is security. Information is efficiency. Information will define the UN System of the future.
Operational Procedures • The threat to the UN System is as follows: • Internal bureaucracy and big egos/small minds • Lack of full access to all relevant information • Recalcitrant Member Nations • Organized opposition groups • Internal espionage from Member Nations • Lack of employee training and situational awareness • Lack of focus by managers at all levels • Lack of funding or influence over external funds • Information management can resolve all of these deficiencies.
Physical Security • Physical security of fixed installation is the most tangible mission of DSS, and also the least important. • Virtual security is much more important and demands total situational awareness and total efficiency. • Morality, and the perception of the UN System as unbiased and totally for the good of the community being served, is the ultimate security.
Technical Security • Defensive surveillance detection, and especially alert human intelligence able to observe and detect hostile surveillance of UN System sites and individuals, is the single most essential function of DSS. • Technical surveillance detection requires both constant audio-visual coverage, and constant human and technical review of the captured images and sounds.
Human Intelligence • DSS is best served by having the most intelligent, dedicated, and intuitive humans on the planet. • There is no higher moral duty than to serve the UN System by protecting its missions, facilities, movements, and individuals. • Security is not about guns. • Security is about minds in constant action.
Information Peacekeeping #1 Changing What Nations Spend Money On, While Focusing $1T in Charitable Funding for Ten Threats & Twelve Action Areas • Public intelligence can change public spending priorities • Less on military, more on everything else • Global intelligence can create global security forces and funds for sustaining Earth and Peace 0 500 Others Russia Europe USA Health Culture Education Assistance Intelligence Diplomacy Military
Information Peacekeeping #2 Changing When & How We Intervene • Public warning can change public policy – More Prevention – More Peacekeeping – More Education – More Long-Term Aid – Less Corruption – Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. “Inconvenient Warning” & “Warning Fatigue” Are Obstacles.
Information Peacekeeping #3 Changing Who Does the Thinking & the Deciding on Public Budgets ® Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman • Public, not elites, must be the final judge of global security values • Public intelligence will enable public understanding/action • Berto Jongman’s map is Reference A--we must all support him.
Information Peacekeeping #4 Changing How the World Views Intelligence Expert Forum Weekly Review Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex
Information Peacekeeping #5 Changing the Strategic Focus • Connectivity everywhere • Content is digitized • Coordination of standards and investments • C4 Security across all eight tribes--public safety at same level as safety of secrets
Information Peacekeeping #6: Creating Infinite Wealth for the Five Billion at the Bottom of the Pyramid • Representative Books: – End of Poverty – Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid (Prahalad) – Revolutionary Wealth – Infinite Wealth – Wealth of Knowledge – Wealth of Networks – How to Change the World • Major Lecture: – “Open Everything” at http://www.oss.net/GNOME • Today’s economy: – Seven Trillion/Year – Focused on 1B “Rich” – Two Trillion Illicit • Tomorrow’s economy: – Ten Trillion/Year – Focused on 5B Poor – Transparent Budgets Eliminate Corruption – “Green” Capitalism • “True Cost” Known • Cradle to Cradle • Re-Use Not Re-Cycle
Recommendations for Tribunal • 100MB Internet access for every employee, at work and at home, is vital to both security & efficiency. • Budget for outsourcing commercial decision-support, e.g. threat evaluation of The Hague (three groups: entrenched anti-Tribunal families; potential host families for incoming terrorists; and discreetly approached friendly families who can provide Early Warning. • Establish a 24/7 Watch Center with a widely-publicized email address and telephone number with Arabic speaker always on duty even if from home.
Recommendation for UN • The Coalition Coordination Center is immediately available as the world’s first multinational information sharing and analytic support center. • All you have to do is get each of your Missions to the UN to raise the need for such a center which will not use secret sources or methods.
United Nations Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, Decision Support • Brahimi Report applies • Secretary General needs global decision support network instead of 77 libraries & isolated data bases • Information can prevent conflict, create stabilizing wealth and possibly fund all future UN operations through monetization of information.

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2008 information sharing orientation dia international fellows

  • 1.
    Information Sharing &Analytics Orientation 7 March 2008 International Intelligence Fellows Program www.oss.net www.earth-intelligence.net Words for Each Slide in Notes
  • 2.
    Before We Begin…. The U.S. Intelligence Community Before & After 9/11
  • 3.
    Collection Failure Breakdownin Coverage and Language Access Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* NRO NSA FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
  • 4.
    Processing Failure Breakdownin Exploitation, Dissemination 50% Less Costly More Satisfying Does Not Exist SIGINT OSINT HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE 0% 50%
  • 5.
    What the CzarDoes… I am NOT making this up….
  • 6.
    Analytic Matrix for Understanding, Dialog & Action Over Time Affordable, Implementable 50-Year Strategy for Using Public Intelligence to Save Humanity & Earth Credible, Complete Plan for Integrating Public Information to Create Public Understanding and Morally- Sound Sustainable Policies & Harmonized Budgets at Every Level of Action Without Centralizing Anything at All URL: http://www.earth-intelligence.net, Click on about EIN for 10-page brochure.
  • 7.
    Earth Intelligence Network:High-Level Threat Summary + Two Breach of Trust Demands Electoral Reform Insist on legislation passing by 4 July‘08 Poverty • Pandemic • 5 billion globally • Increasing in USA • Foundation for all other threats Infectious Disease • Without borders • Kills rich & leaders • Prevention critical • Low cost medicine Environmental Degradation • Changes that took 10,000 yrs now take 3 • Toxicity of everything • Poisoned earth/water Inter-State Conflict • Security Council members sell the guns • Ban on arms exports • Regional peace nets Civil War • Corruption • Dictators (42 of 44 supported by USA) • Over basics of life Genocide • Resource scarcity • Lifetime of learned hatreds • Israel must adapt Other Atrocities • Child slavery • Child prostitution • By name kidnapping • Murder for body parts Proliferation • Cluster bombs, land mines, & small arms • Peaceful energy trumps nuclear bombs Terrorism • Cannot win “war” against a “tactic” • Law enforcement can resolve this • Too much on military, not enough on aid Transnational Crime • $2 trillion a year • Vatican, Wall Street, USG, Mafia all are intertwined • Drug cash is liquidity Corruption • One man’s bribe is a community’s loss of all • Open Money and Open Books can fix • Must improve salaries across the board Fraud • Apply Tobin Tax of . 0006 to all Federal Reserve transactions • IRS gets same books as stockholders • “True Costs” up front
  • 8.
    Earth Intelligence Network:Transpartisan Policy Summary Debt. $9 Trillion is “a lot,” Debt scales & incapacitates. USA Insolvent. MUST HAVE a Balanced Budget 25 years out. Agriculture • Local & Organic • Deep Root Farming • Family/Community Owned Farming Diplomacy • Dogma kills • Restore USIA • Need global information sharing Economy • End CEO Greed • $10/hr minimum wage • Full employment • LOCAL supply chain Education • Self-paced Online • Apprenticeships • Team Learning • Learn to learn Energy • Wind & Solar NOW • Portable Hydrogen • Two-way Grid • Green capitalism Family • One job per couple • End overtime • Community Centers • Build neighborhoods Health • Lifestyle • Environment • Natural Cures • Generic at 1% of cost Immigration • Enforce Labor Law • GLOBAL standards •Border Patrol +25,000 • National Service 2 yrs Justice • Pardon all marijuana offenders • Wind down the prison-slave complex • Eliminate corporate “personality” amnesty Security • Wage peace not war •Reduce the military-industrial complex • Belief systems and morality are core. • Connect 5B poor Society • Universal service • Universal health care • Preventive medicine • English required for citizenship & extended residence Water • Reflect True Cost • Global Manhattan Project to restore aquifers, push salt back • Regional Water Authorities (Global)
  • 9.
    Earth Intelligence Network:Transpartisan Challengers Summary Eight Challengers, Four Methods Our only hope is to create an EarthGame™ the Challengers Can Use Brazil • Demographic power • Energy independent • Macau connection to China China • Energy Crisis • Water Crisis • Doing well on poverty • Exporting wombs India • Water crisis • Most complex mix • IT rich, farm poor • Merits investments Indonesia • Proving resilient • Rich in resources • Key to anti-piracy • Could lead region Iran • We overturned their democracy • Persians are not ragheads • Get over it & deal Russia • Putin on a roll • Buffer on China only if we keep it European • Enormous potential • Embrace & assist Venezuela • Populism is not socialism • Energy independent • Charismatic leaders can be ignorant Wild Cards • Congo •Malaysia • Pakistan • South Africa • Turkey Budget • Balanced budget mandatory • Medicare okay if go with generic drugs • Too much on spies & military, shift $250B/yr Design • Sustainable • Cradle to Cradle • Lease don’t buy • Minimize shipping • End absentee owners • Public Health EarthGame™ • Reality plus budgets plus active citizens online levels the field • For one third of war costs, can eliminate all ten high-level threats “True Costs” • Every product and service can be listed in online database • End-user can get true costs at point of sale via cell phone
  • 10.
    Affordable NOW First,get US to pay for Multinational Decision Support Centre and ASG/DS Second, creat $1 trillion a year Range of Gifts Table posted online Third, host an annual Harmonized Giving Conference for Foundations, Governments, and Corporations, with an individual donor table online.
  • 11.
    DSS Mission Statement • The Department of Safety and Security is responsible for providing leadership, operational support and oversight of the security management system to enable the safest and most efficient conduct of the programmes and activities of the United Nations System. • Observation: Information is the modern means for achieving security, both for protection of UN personnel, facilities, organizations, and missions, and for the host member states and indigenous or migrant populations.
  • 12.
    DSS Deficiencies ofConcern • Threat Risk Assessments are delayed & incomplete • Threat Risk Assessments do not reflect 360° UN System view nor regional/adjacent threat information • Threat Risk Assessments do not have a well-founded directory of Indicators, Accelerators, and Triggers relevant to UN System security. • UN Missions & individual UN agencies or forces have no integrated decision-support mechanism helpful to one and all. • UN System has no global directory of sources with defined biases, sponsors, or agendas. • UN System is not perceived as having an effective but totally moral, legal, ethical information system helpful to both the UN System & Host Government. • UN System does not have safe, efficient, or reliable (constant) means of sharing helpful information across all UN System boundaries (agencies, countries, missions, locations) • UN System information is not efficiently acquired, exploited, or shared • UN System has no means for identifying relevant sources, softwares, and services for multinational information sharing and internal analytics. • UN System is not recognizing information as a major contributor to security.
  • 13.
    DSS Host Overview • We Must Connect – DPA – DPI – DPKO – DSS – All Other • Participating Groups – UNIIIC – UNIFIL – ESCWA – DSS – UNTSO – UNDOF • Three P’s – Posture – Perception – Political Compromise • Fundamentals – Food & Water – Shelter – Clothing – Education – Security • JOC/JMAC useful model • Member Nations creating Open Source Intelligence units (e.g. Scotland Yard) that have been very effective in achieving improved security. Sharing Legal Ethical Information Can Enhance Security & Performance for All
  • 14.
    Nine Pillars ofVulnerability Mitigation in UN System Security • POLITICAL COMPROMISE • MEDIA MANAGEMENT • MANDATE & MISSION • POSTURE & PERCEPTION • INFORMATION MANAGEMENT • OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES • PHYSICAL SECURITY • TECHNICAL SECURITY • HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (Defensive Passive Counter- Surveillance, Surveillance Detection, NOT Offensive Penetration) Information—Open, Legal, Ethical Information—is the Essential Means for Mitigating All Nine UN System Vulnerabilities While Also Contributing to UN System Efficiency in Every Organization, at Every Level, for Every Function and Mission.
  • 15.
    Conceptual Opportunity •IOSAS – Integrated – Open – Source – Analytical – Support • UNODIN – United – Nations – Open-Source – Decision-Support – Information – Network Mission Joint Operations Centers and Force Joint Military Analysis Centers exist now, at an elementary level as conceptualized by MajGen Cammaert. Our endeavors will over time dramatically improve both JOC & JMAC concepts, doctrine, manning, equipping, training, outsourcing, sourcing, & analytics. Our objective over the next 20 years is to establish a global grid that makes the UN System the world’s best Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support capability in support of peace and prosperity. Information should be the nerves, blood, and brain of the UN System.
  • 16.
    Goal of theTraining Initiative • The goal of this training initiative is to find ways to efficiently and effectively navigate the broad spectrum of open source material available, and to integrate pertinent elements of the 80% into the 20% available from currently recognized national and UN sources into an Integrated Open Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) mechanism. 1 Open Source Information 2 1. Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions 2. UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO
  • 17.
    Three-Day Plan Thursday • Introductions of Participants • Strategic View of Multinational Information Operations • Discussion of Two Online Guides with Links: – www.oss.net/BASIC – www.oss.net/LIBRARY • Discussion of Current Event Information • Participant Identification of Top Issues for Discussion • Sources & Methods (eg NATO) • How to Create a Wiki for Any Mission (eg30 ExpertWiki) NOTE: This gathering has three purposes: 1. To introduce six UN Lebanon groups to one another in person for improved sharing & support. 2. To identify global online and offline resources immediately available, free, to all participants.& their colleagues 3. To begin the process, with this “Class Before One” of defining how best to enhance UN access to and exploitation of multinational information among DSS, DPA, DPI, IM. Friday • Sources – 24/7 Call-In Number – Eight Sharing Tribes – Source Directory – Belief Systems – Financial Sources – Subscription Sources – Password-Protected • Methods – Internet Speed – Online versus Personal – Cultural Factors – Creating Flow – Forecasting – Summaries & Opinions • Indicators, Accelerants, & Triggers (Share & Improve) • Empowering Technologies – Ingestion – Sense-Making – Sharing – SILOBREAKER • Organizational Engineering – The Boss – The Source – The Budget – The Public Saturday • Security Risk Assessment (Training Exercise) - Brief Senior Person from Each of Six UN Elements - Establish missing Essential Elements of Information (EEI) - Discuss the needs of senior officers (e.g. Commissioner, spokesperson for UNIFIL) • Open Dialog • Challenge Questions • Specify follow-up actions for instructor and for participants in next thirty days • Instructor to develop a proposed syllabus for UN DSS open source decision support information network (UNODIN) and with help from participants, a draft UN Handbook on Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support. NOTE: all opinions are personal and off the record.
  • 18.
    Class Before One • A training concept—before the first “official” class, there is always a “Class Before One” that helps develop the need, the solution, and the presentation. • You are the Class Before One. Be very proud of this, each of you is a UN System decision-support pioneer.
  • 20.
    Imagine the UNSystem as a Wealth Creation Network Information Management is the center of gravity for UN System.
  • 21.
    Public Advantage I We were here in 2006… 9-11 & Katrina, then multiple policy failures Here in 2008! US public scared back into reading and thinking; 75K amputees, GAO declares USA insolvent, 27 secessionist movements, “home rule” up, and corporate personality down. Critical Junctures
  • 22.
    TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG Public Advantage II SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS OPEN SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW Localized Resilience Sustainable Reality-Based Transpartisan Budgets
  • 23.
    Public Advantage III Expert Forum Weekly Review Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex
  • 24.
    Public Advantage IV National Military Law Enforcement Business Secrets "Intelligence" "Protected" Open Targeting Signals Imagery Order of Battle Mapping Undercover Investigation Privacy Metrics Client Information Pricing Information Cost Information External Information Academic NGO-Media Citizen+ Secret Sensitive Private Open Secret Sensitive Private Open Secret Sensitive Private Open
  • 25.
    Public Advantage V This is the real “End Game”
  • 26.
    Future Vision forGlobal Information Sharing & Management
  • 27.
    Organizations Fateh Al-Islam Al Qaeda Gama´a al-Islamiyya Fatah Party Show More Key Phrases Refugee Camp Terrorist Group Martyrdom Allotment Show More Topics Civil Disruption / Riots Democratization Land Forces Territorial Disputes Show More Cities Tripoli (Libya) Beirut Damascus ʿAmman Show More Countries Lebanon Syria United States Israel Show More Current Story Lebanon: Fatah al-Islam No. 2 killed Documents matching your search Documents | Stories All (67) | News (67) | Reports (0) | Blogs (0) | Audio/Video (0) | Fact Sheets (0) Documents Sort by: Date | Relevance While Gaza burns Haaretz 08/21/2007 Quotes ...near the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared where Fatah Islam militants have been fighting Lebanese soldiers for more than two months. "Cabinet was informed by Interior Minister Hassan Sabei that Lebanese security forces have killed the Fatah Islam's No 2 in the Abu Samra neighbourhood" in Tripoli, Aridi told reporters following a Cabinet meeting last night [08/07/2007] DDI News - Lebanon announces killing Fatah Islam deputy commander The group said it was bringing the 'good news to the Muslims of the martyrdom of a noble brother,' according to the statement. "We in the Fatah Islam movement and all the true mujahideen, pledge to God to avenge our brother's blood from the infidels and the renegades" The authenticity of the statement, posted on a Web site which commonly carries messages from Al Qaeda and other militant groups, could not be independently... [08/09/2007] FOXNews.com - Fatah Islam's No. 2 Killed by Lebanese Troops • www.silobreaker.com is the single best tool, free for now • Sense-making tools can be applied to both their content and yours.
  • 29.
    Intelligence = DecisionSupport • Intelligence is a process that creates decision-support. • It is NOT defined by secret sources & methods. • The Brahimi Report, Military Advisors to the Secretary General, and The High Level Threat Panel all validate urgency of creating a UN/NGO global decision support and multinational information sharing network.
  • 30.
    Orientation, Not Micro-Training • You will learn more on your own, and by sharing with one another, than can be taught here in three days • www.oss.net/BASIC has the primary links • www.oss.net/LIBRARY has 30,000 pages from 750+ speakers, this directory can be sorted and also searched • Consider viewing the lectures and movies first, especially the lectures on Analysis & New Rules, and the movie on Creating the World Brain.
  • 31.
    Analysis is aProfession • Four D’s – Discovery – Discrimination – Distillation – Delivery • If you do nothing else, read the Analytic Tradecraft booklet by Jack Davis, easily accessed online, free, via www.oss.net/BASIC. • Facts Are Not Enough – History – Cultural Context – Adjacent Players – Localized Indicators, Accelerators, Triggers – Sharing 24/7 – Cast a Wide Net – Wild Cards Abound – Thinking Matters More Than Technology
  • 32.
    Ten High-Level Threats • Poverty • Infectious Disease • Environmental Degradation • Inter-State Conflict • Civil War • Genocide • Other Atrocities • Proliferation • Terrorism • Transnational Crime Every Mission Confronts These Ten Threats One Way or Another— Avoid Narrow Focus, Always See the Forest, Not Just The Tree in Front of You
  • 33.
    Open Sources &Ten Threats • Economic and social threats including 95% – poverty, 99% – infectious disease and 95% – environmental degradation 90% • Inter-State conflict 75% • Internal conflict, including 90% – civil war, 80% – genocide and 95% – other large-scale atrocities 95% • Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons (proliferation) 75% • Terrorism 80% • Transnational organized crime 80% On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address the ten high-level threats, but the UN System’s Information Management is not.
  • 34.
    Scotland Yard OSINT 1. Created Open Source Branch in SO-11 in 1995 2. This helped put more terrorists and arms smugglers in jail faster and cheaper (instead of 3000 Euro for a surveillance team, 30 Euro for an address) 3. Unanticipated bonus: increased property and financial assets that could be confiscated from convicted organized crime bosses.
  • 35.
  • 36.
    Twelve Action Areas • Agriculture • Diplomacy • Economy • Education • Energy • Family • Health • Immigration/Migration • Justice • Security • Society • Water Every Mission Has Narrow Channels and Deep Bureaucracies. Information Sharing is a Proper Ethical Means for Enhancing Effectiveness. If Any Action Area is Overlooked, Boss Needs to Know This.
  • 37.
    Analysis Cannot DoIt All Prediction/Prevention Self protection Environmental Security Retaliation You Everyone Else 1. Improve Sources 2. Improve Sharing 3. Improve Analysis 4. Improve Decisions by Supported Bosses
  • 38.
    Model for AnalyticPurpose Probability Surprise Casualty Potential
  • 39.
    Hezbollah, Iran, RegionalSurprise Warning, meaning, need, elsewhere • 14 Aug 07 News Release • Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah promises “surprise” if Israel attacks Lebanon again. • Hezbollah has not been disarmed—15,000 rockets remain hidden (other source) • Lebanon divided, Israeli soldiers still captive, situation is volatile • Direct negotiations could help, truth & reconciliation • Israel may not appreciate full extent of Iranian ability to provide supporting attacks, e.g. exploding buildings in Tel Aviv, cutting of US land supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad, Sunburn missile attack against Maritime Force. • Israel, not Iran or Syria, is the most likely to take unilateral violent action that will trigger the “surprise.” Probability: High Damage: Very High Surprise: Strikes Outside of Lebanon, Not by Hezbollah Israel 9-11 in Tel Aviv
  • 40.
    Why Analysts AreSpecial The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! INFORMATION TIME Actionable Intelligence Available Information Complex Organizations are Drowning in Information. Analytic Tradecraft, Applied by Analysts, is the Solution.
  • 41.
    Levels of Analysis:Threat Changes! Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness STRATEGIC Integrated Application OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Sustainability Geographic Location Civil Allies Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance Military Availability Geographic Resources Civil Stability Military Reliability Geographic Terrain Civil Psychology Military Lethality Geographic Atmosphere Civil Infrastructure This is very important. The threat changes depending on the level of analysis, and the threat is distinct, more on this shortly, in relation to the UN Mission, fixed facilities, mobile units, and individuals with both fixed homes and mobile platforms.
  • 42.
    Creating an AnalysisCell Central discovery, distributed exploitation • Six people can leverage global open sources for an entire Ministry or Service or Command • This reduces duplication while increasing decision support to all bosses • Saves money and creates value that can be shared with host country and others Senior All-Source Collection Manager Internet Specialist Commercial Online Expert Primary Research External Contracts All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager
  • 43.
    Seven Tribes (Eight) Military Law Enforcement Business Religions, Clans, Labor Unions, Citizen Observers Academic National NGOs Media
  • 44.
    New Decision-Support Paradigm OLD • NGO’s Don’t “Do” • Policy Over Intelligence • Unilateral • Mostly Secret • Technical Emphasis • Collection Emphasis • One-language filter • Mistakes hidden • Short-term thinking NEW • Brahimi Report ++ • Intelligence Over Policy • Multilateral • Mostly Public • Human Emphasis • Analysis Emphasis • Multi-lingual filters • Mistakes acknowledged • Long-term thinking
  • 45.
    Open Source IntelligenceI Lessons of History China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. I Lessons of History • Neither the academics nor the government have done well here. • We need to fund both specialists in history, and a massive digitization project for Chinese, Islamic, other key histories.
  • 46.
    Open Source IntelligenceII Multinational Burden Sharing II Global Coverage Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning • No one has the time, money, or ability to cover the world. • We must find new means of sharing the burden of collection, translation, digitization of global open sources in 33+ languages. • The Internet is vital.
  • 47.
    Open Source IntelligenceIII Leveraging the Private Sector • We must establish open protocols for linking and leveraging the other tribes: military, law enforcement, business, academic, NGO-media, and religious. • A global intelligence federation is needed. III National Intelligence Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
  • 48.
    This Is Reality:We Go For The Green! Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 Secrets "Intelligence" "Protected" Open Targeting Signals Imagery Order of Battle Mapping Undercover Investigation Privacy Metrics Secret Sensitive Private Open Secret Sensitive Private Open Information-Sharing & Decision-Support Client Information Pricing Information Cost Information External Information Secrets "Intelligence" "Protected" Open
  • 49.
    Facing Reality •Amilcar Cabral, African freedom fighter (1924-1973): Hide nothing from the masses of our people. Tell no lies. Expose lies whenever they are told. Mask no difficulties, mistakes, failures. Claim no easy victories. ... Our experience has shown us that in the general framework of daily struggle, this battle against ourselves, this struggle against our own weaknesses ... is the most difficult of all. • Henry Stiller, DG of Histen Riller, at French Information Congress, IDT ’93: 95% de l’information don’t une enterprise a besoin peut s’aquiris par des moyens honorables. • Tony Zinni, former CINCCENT: 80% of what I needed to know as CINCENT I got from open sources rather than classified reporting. And within the remaining 20%, if I knew what to look for, I found another 16%. At the end of it all, classified intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge. • Daniel Elsberg, speaking to Henry Kissinger: The danger is, you’ll become like a moron. You’ll become incapable of learning from most people in the world, no matter how much experience they have in their particular areas that may be much greater than yours” [because of your blind faith in the value of your narrow and often incorrect secret information]. • Ted Shackley, Clandestine & Covert Operations Leader: In short, the collapse of the communist system in Central Europe has created a new situation for intelligence collectors. I estimate, based in part on my commercial discussions since 1990 in East Germany, Poland, Albania, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, that 80 percent of what is on any intelligence agency’s wish list for this area as of 1991 is now available overtly. Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
  • 50.
    Enhancing Performance I Data standards and sharing matter Open Human It’s the back and forth that allows DNA to define life. • From north to south, east to west, if the information is not entered digitally and according to some agreed upon standard, it will not be shared and will not contribute to UN early warning or decision support. Imagery Signals Tip of the hat to the Director of the NIA in South Africa for this important insight.
  • 51.
    Enhancing Performance II 24/7 Geospatial “Plot” is Vital • There is no substitute for a 24/7 watch center that has a geospatial “plot” and can combine a knowledge of intelligence sources with a real-world depiction of locations, vehicles, targets, and individuals.
  • 52.
    Enhancing Performance III Fail in Isolation, Thrive in Combination • We are our own worst enemy. • Compartmentation and security are the enemy of timely intelligence. • Sources achieve their greatest effect when combined, not when “Okay, so maybe I was wrong not isolated. to tell you about my source--but you should have told me first…...”
  • 53.
    The Big Picture Four processing quadrants III - External Information EXTERNAL Data Visualization Expert Hires “Just Enough, Just in Time” Business Intelligence Institutionalized Local Knowledge Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring Customer Monitoring TECHNICAL HUMAN Vendor Reporting INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Data Conversion Churning (Rotationals) Trip Reports Internal Reporting Government Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital™ Rolodexes/E-Mail Personal Brand Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Project/Group Management Training E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
  • 54.
    Processing Quadrant #1 Knowledge Management • Know what you know • Do not lose data, insights, links • Integrate people, projects, vendors, times, places, objects • Optimize application of technology to internal information INTERNAL • Internal Reporting • Vendor Reporting • Project Management • Data Conversion • Automated Analysis
  • 55.
    Processing Quadrant #2 Collaborative Work • Human Capital • Inherent in People • Who They Know • How They Know • When They Know • What They Do • Who They Tell • How They Feel INSIGHT • Employee Brand Names • Rolodexes • E-Mail Directories • Cell Telephone Networks • Trip Reports • Rotationals • Training
  • 56.
    Processing Quadrant #3 External Information Acquisition • Peter Drucker says this (external) must be the focal point for the next 50 years of innovation • OLD: spend on bodies & technology • NEW: spend on external information services in all languages, from all sources, all the time EXTERNAL • Local knowledge • Expert hires “just enough, just in time” • Customer monitoring • Government monitoring • Technology monitoring • Environment monitoring • Legal, ethical, open!
  • 57.
    Processing Quadrant #4 Organizational Intelligence • Data standards • Data entry mandated • Storage & retrieval • Historical access without legacy system training • Employee shoeboxes integrated/not lost MEMORY • Intellectual Property • Organizational Memory • Meta-Data • History of Information • Electronic/Human Links • Survive Human Turnover
  • 58.
    Processing Desktop: AnalyticToolkit Finished Intelligence and Reporting Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Publishing and Word Processing Collaborative Work Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Clustering and Linking of Related Data Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Structured Argument Analysis Modeling and Simulations Detection of Alert Situations Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Desktop Graphic and Map- Based Visualization Detection of Changing Trends Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats of Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information A B C Eighteen Computer- Assisted Capabilities
  • 59.
    Processing Desktop NoEasy Solutions, Not Integrated PPllaann EExxtteenndd I2 Analyst Notebook **Plumtree Corporate Portal EDGE? RReeppoorrtt SShhaarree OSALAT Excaliber Copernic CCoolllleecctt Topic Analyst Workbench Identifier, SIFT, OnTopic, Labrador GMS, Athens Aerotext Intelligent Miner For Text AAnnaallyyzzee Content Extractor Information Portal, Comprendium ClearForest Suite CrimeLink **C-4-U Scout **CI Spider **Knowledge.Works **Market Signal Analyzer **E-Sense **Corporate Intelligence Service **TextAnalyst **Powerize **Strategy! **Wincite **WisdomBuilder Groove? ** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report MindMap? SYSTRAN+? Other CATALYST Elements? DARPA STRONG ANGEL? Google Silobreaker
  • 60.
    USSOCOM OSINT TOOLS • These are the specific products used now. They are not integrated. • Collection: Copernic Pro (Internet search and download engine); Teleport Pro (Internet spider); Convera Spider (Spider -- downloads all or selected parts of a website); Inxight StarTree / Crawler (Internet web site relationship mapper) • Process: Copernic Summarizer (Summarizes individual files); SummIT! (Specialty summarizer embedded within Retrievalware and Semio); Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for determination of relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval); Apptek Machine Translation Database (Ibase / Ibridge) ((database for analyst notebook)); Inxight Categorizer (Smart categorizer) • Analyze: Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for predetermination or relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval) • Visualize: Webtas (Allows you to put data into a timeline with corresponding map information); Analyst Notebook (De-facto standard product for link product development but manual in nature— Talend Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) is better tool); Spire (Visualization application with "terrain" map view of data; MapInfo (Mapping package); ARCView / ArcIMS (Mapping package); Propeller (data linages (primarily communications focused); Intranet Brain (Web site mapping); EnFish Onespace (Indexing engine for analyst pc's
  • 61.
    Rule 7 “Twolevels down” is the new standard • Nation-states are old targeting standard • New standard is at the province, company, and individual level • This is a double order of magnitude increase in the difficulty of being adequate State Targets -- Lots of Assets Organizational Targets -- Very Few Assets Individual Targets -- Virtually No Assets
  • 62.
    Rule 13 Cross-fertilizationmatters more • Old approach: consumer to analyst to collector to source--the linear paradigm • New approach is the diamond paradigm where collectors and analysts help consumers talk directly to sources Consumer Collector Analyst Source
  • 63.
    Rule 15 CollaborativeWork & Informal Deals Rise • Intelligence collectors and analysts will have personal “brands” • Peer to peer networks will form quickly to tackle new problems • Electronic access more important than physical location
  • 64.
    Rule 18 Collectiondoctrine more sophisticated • FIND the data if you already know it • GET the data if it can be gotten free from an ally or NATO or the church • BUY the data from the private sector • TASK organic collectors as a last resort FIND -- free, internal GET -- free, allies BUY -- low cost TASK -- expensive
  • 65.
    Rule 21 Strategicintelligence matters more • Estimative intelligence must be restored as one of the primary objectives of analysis • Intelligence must support preventive action (in advance of the threat’s maturing), and budget trade-off decisions PAST FUTURE NOW OPTIONS
  • 66.
    Security Risk Assessment • Political: History, Incidents, UNIFIL Vital • Media: Local, Regional, International • Security: Mission, Facilities, Units in Motion, Individuals (Vulnerabilities & Mitigation) • Important Points of Mention – Place for anything not fitting template – Distinguish between facts and opinions • DIME: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic (UN needs pro-active media strategy, media play, good & bad, vital)
  • 67.
    SRA Process andStages –Introduction –Stage One: Programme Assessment –Stage Two: Threat Assessment –A. Situational Awareness –B. Determination of Threats –Stage Three: Vulnerability Assessment –A. Vulnerabilities –B. Strengths –Stage Four: Risk Analysis –Stage Five: Select Options –A. General Options –B. Improved Minimum Operating Standards (MOSS) –Stage Six: Make Decisions –A. Step One: Determine Priorities and Create a Timeline –B. Step Two: Determine Funding and Resource Needs –Stage Seven: Implementation –Stage Eight: Review and Monitoring A B C 1 2 3 4 1: Mission 2. Facilities 3. Movement 4. Individuals A: Beirut B. North C: South Remember: the Threat CHANGES Depending on the Level of Analysis (e.g. Local versus Provincial versus National)
  • 68.
    Amazon Could BeWorld Brain All Information, All Languages, All the Time Expert Forum OPG VPN Weekly Review One-Stop Shop Displaces Intermediaries & Triples Profit Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams
  • 69.
    360° 24/7 AllLanguages…. UN Could Monetize Its Information
  • 70.
    Become the EarthIntelligence Network Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich
  • 71.
    Inputs: Twelve PoliciesActualized in All Budgets at All Levels Brazil China European Union Indonesia India Indonesia Venezuela Wild Card(s) Russia USA Outputs: Sustainable Solutions for Ten High-Level Threats Solution: Peacekeeping Abandon the War & Transparent Metaphor & Reality-Secrecy, Based Move Budgeting Directly to Information Real-world Real-time Dollars & Sense
  • 72.
    Integrated Open-Source AnalyticSupport (IOSAS) within Missions & Centers Evolved into the Universal Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN) Amazon Expert Published Authors Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 Academic Expert Published Authors Multinational Information Sharing Activity Coalition Civil Affairs Units IO/NGO & Indigenous Practitioners STRATEGIC VIEW OPERATIONAL VIEW
  • 73.
    IDEN: Military ashub does not resonate—why not civilians? Robert: Military is “core” force, only integrated force able to move, do, and communicate. Military Hubs Key to low-cost free offline digitization and localized acquisition. Host Govt Host Academia Coalition Military Hub at Home Spoke at CCC Free Online Access & Call Centers BIG PIPE Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 CCC M4IS (Two-Way Reach-Back) Directly responsive to USG Inter-Agency Directly responsive to UN/NGOs in S&R Decision-Support, Predictive Analysis, on Irregular Threats Host LEA Host NGO Host Media Host Civil • Advocacy Groups • Labor Unions • Religions & Tribes Host Business
  • 74.
    Regional Information Center D e p u t y f o r P r o c e s s in g M a la y s ia Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 D e p u t y f o r C o lle c t i o n A u s t r a lia O S I N T H U M I N T I M I N T S I G I N T D ig it iz a t io n T r a n s la t io n V is u a liz a t io n A n a ly t ic S u p p o r t D e p u t y f o r A n a ly s is C h in a W a r n in g E s t im a t iv e C o u n t r ie s I s s u e s C h ie f o f C e n t e r S in g a p o r e Deputy for Counterintelligence Japan Deputy for Covert Action Thailand
  • 75.
    Political Compromise •Implications for safety and security • Forget about “national” analysis • Focus on regions, tribes, clans, families. • Grasp history as a foundation. • Visualize competing equities. • Value transparency and integrity. • The UN System must always be perceived as moral and free of bias.
  • 76.
    Media Management •Media is not just the broadcast “main” media but also the Internet, sermons, and other forms of narrowcast. • Monitoring the media is an essential aspect of situational awareness. • “Spin” is misunderstood as manipulation. The UN System must focus on getting its message into all forms of media, this is a vital aspect of “intangible” security.
  • 77.
    Mandate & Mission • The UN mandates and mission are inherently flawed for lack of adequate decision support, inclusive of a grasp of history and a nuanced understanding of all regional actors. • Security comes from accuracy of understanding, before and during the mission.
  • 78.
    Posture & Perception • Posture defines perception. A lack of clear communication to every actor of relevance to the UN System is a death wish. • Posture is a message. • Perception is the mission. • Every action the UN System takes to communicate its goodness, its good works, is one less bullet, one less bomb.
  • 79.
    Information Management •The UN System is operating at less than 20% of capacity for two simple reasons: – Lack of 100MB Internet access for every UN employee at work and at rest. – Lack of access to the 80% of the open source information needed to be effective at the strategic, operational (regional), tactical, and technical levels. • Information is security. Information is efficiency. Information will define the UN System of the future.
  • 80.
    Operational Procedures •The threat to the UN System is as follows: • Internal bureaucracy and big egos/small minds • Lack of full access to all relevant information • Recalcitrant Member Nations • Organized opposition groups • Internal espionage from Member Nations • Lack of employee training and situational awareness • Lack of focus by managers at all levels • Lack of funding or influence over external funds • Information management can resolve all of these deficiencies.
  • 81.
    Physical Security •Physical security of fixed installation is the most tangible mission of DSS, and also the least important. • Virtual security is much more important and demands total situational awareness and total efficiency. • Morality, and the perception of the UN System as unbiased and totally for the good of the community being served, is the ultimate security.
  • 82.
    Technical Security •Defensive surveillance detection, and especially alert human intelligence able to observe and detect hostile surveillance of UN System sites and individuals, is the single most essential function of DSS. • Technical surveillance detection requires both constant audio-visual coverage, and constant human and technical review of the captured images and sounds.
  • 83.
    Human Intelligence •DSS is best served by having the most intelligent, dedicated, and intuitive humans on the planet. • There is no higher moral duty than to serve the UN System by protecting its missions, facilities, movements, and individuals. • Security is not about guns. • Security is about minds in constant action.
  • 84.
    Information Peacekeeping #1 Changing What Nations Spend Money On, While Focusing $1T in Charitable Funding for Ten Threats & Twelve Action Areas • Public intelligence can change public spending priorities • Less on military, more on everything else • Global intelligence can create global security forces and funds for sustaining Earth and Peace 0 500 Others Russia Europe USA Health Culture Education Assistance Intelligence Diplomacy Military
  • 85.
    Information Peacekeeping #2 Changing When & How We Intervene • Public warning can change public policy – More Prevention – More Peacekeeping – More Education – More Long-Term Aid – Less Corruption – Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. “Inconvenient Warning” & “Warning Fatigue” Are Obstacles.
  • 86.
    Information Peacekeeping #3 Changing Who Does the Thinking & the Deciding on Public Budgets ® Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman • Public, not elites, must be the final judge of global security values • Public intelligence will enable public understanding/action • Berto Jongman’s map is Reference A--we must all support him.
  • 87.
    Information Peacekeeping #4 Changing How the World Views Intelligence Expert Forum Weekly Review Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex
  • 88.
    Information Peacekeeping #5 Changing the Strategic Focus • Connectivity everywhere • Content is digitized • Coordination of standards and investments • C4 Security across all eight tribes--public safety at same level as safety of secrets
  • 89.
    Information Peacekeeping #6: Creating Infinite Wealth for the Five Billion at the Bottom of the Pyramid • Representative Books: – End of Poverty – Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid (Prahalad) – Revolutionary Wealth – Infinite Wealth – Wealth of Knowledge – Wealth of Networks – How to Change the World • Major Lecture: – “Open Everything” at http://www.oss.net/GNOME • Today’s economy: – Seven Trillion/Year – Focused on 1B “Rich” – Two Trillion Illicit • Tomorrow’s economy: – Ten Trillion/Year – Focused on 5B Poor – Transparent Budgets Eliminate Corruption – “Green” Capitalism • “True Cost” Known • Cradle to Cradle • Re-Use Not Re-Cycle
  • 90.
    Recommendations for Tribunal • 100MB Internet access for every employee, at work and at home, is vital to both security & efficiency. • Budget for outsourcing commercial decision-support, e.g. threat evaluation of The Hague (three groups: entrenched anti-Tribunal families; potential host families for incoming terrorists; and discreetly approached friendly families who can provide Early Warning. • Establish a 24/7 Watch Center with a widely-publicized email address and telephone number with Arabic speaker always on duty even if from home.
  • 91.
    Recommendation for UN • The Coalition Coordination Center is immediately available as the world’s first multinational information sharing and analytic support center. • All you have to do is get each of your Missions to the UN to raise the need for such a center which will not use secret sources or methods.
  • 92.
    United Nations EarlyWarning, Multinational Information Sharing, Decision Support • Brahimi Report applies • Secretary General needs global decision support network instead of 77 libraries & isolated data bases • Information can prevent conflict, create stabilizing wealth and possibly fund all future UN operations through monetization of information.

Editor's Notes

  • #2 This is a summary of training I conducted in Beirut last August. A non-publicity clause applies.
  • #4 This is a very serious depiction of how little we collect in the foreign affairs arena. One study of three countries suggests that we collect less than 10% of what can be known, in part because the only people with money to buy local knowledge are the spies, and they insist on treason as a condition for employment. We are simply not serious about open sources of information, nor about information in foreign languages. To find 396 terrorist, insurgent, and opposition web sites, as OSS did in 60 days for under $60,000, required the ability to work in 29 languages including Catelan, Gaelic, Kurdish, Farsi, Urdu, and Pashto. If we can do this, CIA and NSA and the FBI should be able to as well. But they don’t have the leadership willing to change.
  • #5 It gets worse. This is an official CIA depiction, from a study done in the late 1990’s, as to the relative cost and satisfaction derived from each collection discipline. What is most noteworthy--and a major reason why we failed to “connect the dots” and prevent 9-11, is that there is no single place where it all comes together in digital form, with time and geospatial tags, such that we can automatically see patterns and detect anomalies. Summing up: we collect less than 10% of what we should, process less than 20% of what we collect, with the result that Washington is operating, at best, on 2% of the relevant and available foreign affairs information.
  • #12 This is the DSS Mission Statement. Note that in addition to security of all UN programmes and activities, DSS is also mandated with the mission of enabling the most efficient conduct of all programmes and activities. This is why I believe that DSS Lebanon is the very first element of the entire UN System to recognize that information is a core enabler of both security and efficiency; what we do here could be of great value to the rest of the UN System. We will focus locally and share globally.
  • #13 In my UN career, I have been focused on Threat Risk Assessments. The attack on the UN in Baghdad was our 9-11. In my personal view, the UN has been complacent about risk, and we have not developed the necessary capabilities to use information to identify, prevent, or reduce risk. At the same time, much of the information relevant to risk—and the analytic methods—are also relevant to UN System effectiveness. It is our duty to share this information with other UN elements, and in the process of improving DSS global information access and analytics, to contribute what we learn to the UN System.
  • #14 If we are to be effective in the DSS Mission world-wide, we must help DPA, DPI, DPKO, and all other elements of the UN System by enabling information sharing and information acquisition in support of safe and efficient mission accomplishment. Today we have brought together six distinct elements of the UN System focusing on Lebanon and the immediate region around Lebanon. I want to emphasize to all of you that this orientation course will help you understand the posture of the UN, the perception of the UN in all its elements, and the Political Compromise that is the essence of how the UN achieves its missions. We deal in the fundamentals of food & water, shelter, clothing, education, and security. Nothing about any of these is secret—UN blue is open, transparent, accountable, and responsive to the concerns of all parties. JOC/JMAC is a useful model, at the same time that Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) units are being created by Member Nations. It is my intent that we use this orientation training to enable you, the Class Before One, to begin developing a UN System Handbook for Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support.
  • #15 These are the nine pillars of vulnerability mitigation. While Mr. Steele has been asked to address these in a narrow mission-relevant context, and that will be toward the end of this summary briefing, he will also, because you are the Class Before One, address strategic and regional aspects of early warning, multinational information sharing, and decision-support. The word “Intelligence” as used by the Brahimi Report and the Military Advisor to the SG is not a dirty word—used properly, it is about decision support using open, legal, ethical sources and methods.
  • #16 Mr. Steele resumes speaking. I was both shocked and honored when I was invited to bring my past 20 years of effort before you. When UNIIIC Lebanon approached me, they had already developed the idea of IOSAS—an integrated open source analytical support capability. Here to the right you see the concept that I developed years ago in partnership with Dr. Patricia Lewis, Director of UNIDIR, and MajGen Patrick Cammaert, RN NL, then Military Advisory to the Secretary General. Although I am unknown to most subordinates in the JOC/JMAC process, I am deeply proud of the small role that I played in helping two UN seniors pursue decision-support initiatives in the last six years. Now the time has come for me to totally subordinate myself to the United Nations, to become UN blue, and to help the UN in any way that is authorized. I have carried the load these past 20 years. Now that load must be carried by DSS and the UN and I will do whatever I am asked to do to help the UN and DSS. My work for you here is covered by a non-publicity, non-disclosure, non-compete clause in my contract. I have no desire to sell the UN anything. I do have a very strong desire to learn how to be UN blue and to help the UN achieve its security and efficiency objectives from within.
  • #17 The goal of this training initiative is to begin the process of devising ways to efficiently and effectively navigate and integrate the broad spectrum of legally and ethically open source information that is not now readily available to to the UN, nor now exploited in support of UN security and efficiency.
  • #18 This is our training plan, but I wish to emphasize that because you are the Class Before One, the pioneers, this schedule is completely flexible. At the suggestion of our training sponsor, Mr. Leo Powell, I have agreed that for the next 30 days, any questions you might have are to be answered and integrated into our final training report. This training provides you with 40 hours of knowledge, but you must take the initiative in the next 30 days, and in the rest of your career, to use this knowledge in support of UN System security and efficiency. I will help you create the provisional UN Handbook.
  • #19 You are the Class Before One. This is a very significant honor. Twenty years from today, you will all know one another and you will all be recognized, across the UN System, as pioneers. The future of the UN begins today with you.
  • #20 There is plenty of money for peace and prosperity. The USA spends well over half of all monies for waging war, including enormous sums in military assistance to selected countries in the Middle East. Apart from this money, $1 trillion a year in charitable giving can be influenced by a UN information strategy. It is my view that information—public information in all languages—is already changing the balance of power across the planet. Elites with secret budgets are being brought to order by publics demanding transparency and accountability. The UN can accelerate this trend if it wishes to do so.
  • #21 Secrecy and Openness, War and Peace, have been facing off since time immemorial. General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret), former Commander of the US Central Command, tells us that only 4% of his command knowledge came from secret sources and methods. 96% came from open sources that neither the US Government or any other government can claim they own. Most governments ignore the value of open sources of information that can be shared. This is the moment in time when the UN can get a grip on open sources, and be the world leader in applying information as a means of preventing conflict, resolving conflict, addressing the ten high-level threats, and creating stabilizing wealth. The UN could even monetize information, and eventually be free of obligation to Member contributions.
  • #22 We have the advantage. Regardless of who is in office, We the People are now paying attention and demanding citizen-centered democracy and moral capitalism. The United Nations can use budget transparency to eliminate corruption and to appeal directly to national publics for shifting spending from waging war to waging peace. This Information Advantage is what has been missing from the UN System since its inception.
  • #23 The future is here now, and it is about bottom-up multi-cultural decisions that are based primarily on shared open sources of information, not secrets, and that focus specifically on achieving sustainable long-term agreement. Paul Hawkin and his colleagues at the Natural Capital Institute have nailed it. I believe the United Nations can use the research and posting of “true cost” information about any product or service, to move the entire planet toward green sustainable economics.
  • #24 This is all it takes to be a node for the World Brain. I consider Google predatory, and also very insecure. I’m waiting for CISCO Application Oriented Network to allow me to store my personal information in my personal router, under my control, at the same time that we implement Doug Englebart’s Open Hypertextdocument System (OHS) so that we can link at the paragraph level, while allowing all data to carry geospatial as well as reputation attributes. I am trying to get Amazon to offer all eight of these functionalities and unite its authors into global expert councils at the same time that if helps its readers organize local Wisdom Councils.
  • #25 As a professional with 30 years experience, including the privilege of being the co-founder of the Marine Corps Intelligence Command, I am often frustrated by the obsession that we have with secrecy. I will tell you what I have learned in the past twenty years. I have learned that 96% of what we call intelligence is not secret and 70-80 percent is unrestricted and can be shared. These pie charts depict my view of what is share-able among the seven tribes without any attention to restricted, private, or secret information. We are not going for the green, and we need to. The United Nations can become the world leader in early warning, multinational information sharing, and decision support, and this can be monetized to free the UN from reliance on Member Nation financial contributions, while the UN also uses knowledge to influence how $2 trillion a year in charitable giving and foreign assistance is applied to the ten high-level threats to humanity identified by the UN High-Level Threat Panel.
  • #26 With this slide I am offering you a strategic perspective on your potential as information warriors. The book “No Logo” has it exactly right—if we all attach ourselves leech-like to a threat, a policy, a player, or to an organization, or product or service or locality, we can use information to clean house. Ours is a uniquely moral and peaceful endeavor. We also represent mankind’s last hope.
  • #27 This is my new idea. I have an eight-page flyer posted in the About section of the Earth Intelligence Network, and would be grateful for feed-back. At www.TheTransitioner.org you can see the early efforts to link expert authors with foundation money. By harnessing volunteers and sharing this as a tool—this is to the digital era what the printing press was to the industrial era—we empower billions of people around the world, in all languages, so that they can create stabilizing wealth and thereby achieve global peace. A book is coming out shortly be Medard Gabel, who will build the EarthGame, entitled Seven Billion Billionaires. We know how to do this.
  • #28 On a more practical note of immediate value to your needs today as you do analytic support…. OSS used to spend $150,000 a year on this capability. Now it has been commoditized, and it is available to you for free now, and if the UN does not buy the company outright, or make deal for global access, you can pay $400 a year for the service when it is released as a finished online product and service. Instead of spending a day searching for stuff, you can have the key facts, maps, quotes, stories, and photos instantly sorted in a 360° view, saving hours of your time that can be better spent on analysis in your own context.
  • #29 About five years ago I was invited by the NATO N-2 to brief 66 generals, admirals, and a few colonels, each respectively responsible for their national military intelligence organizations. This was all NATO countries, the Partnership for Peace countries, and the Mediterranean Dialog countries. Like the UN, NATO has long been dependent on Member Nations for “intelligence” or decision support. I believe that because 96% of the relevant information is not secret, that the UN can become completely free of Member Nations information contributions, and become a provider of early warning, multinational information sharing, and decision support for every aspect of the UN System as well as supported Member Nations.
  • #30 It was my great privilege to publish and co-edit this book, the first book ever on Peacekeeping Intelligence. Major General Cammaert, RN NL, who appears on the cover, used his tenure as Military Advisor to the Secretary General to establish the Joint Military Analysis Center project, and with others, also the Mission-oriented Joint Operations Center. This book has been on display in the lobby of 1 UN Plaza since its publication, and is also for sale in the UN Bookstore. I believe General Cammaert to be supremely qualified to be the first ASP for Decision-Support and hope that before he leaves us, Sir David Veness will create this position within DSS.
  • #31 The Class Before One is a vanguard. You are the pioneers, within the DSS construct and via informal sharing and discussion, who will create the draft United Nations Handbook for Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support. This handbook will be a living document that will be expanded over time to apply to every UN System mission area. I am creating a password-access wiki and entering the basic information as soon as I return, after which it can take on a life of its own. In the meantime, here are two references. I have brought over 650 world-class speakers, including Peter Fuchs, then Director General of the International Committee of the Red Cross, together with 7,500 individuals, including the good people who created the Open Source Intelligence Branch in the Intelligence Directorate of Scotland Yard. From Sir David Veness to Detective Constable Steve Edwards, they were honored by the Queen recently for using open sources to put terrorists and arms merchants into jail faster, better, cheaper.
  • #32 Analysis that produces Early Warning and Decision Support is a profession that demands Multinational Information Sharing in order to be effective. The good news is that good analysis can be done using only legal, ethical, open sources and methods. Search the web for “Analytic Tradecraft” to explore what has been published in this area. The seminal work by this title has been written by Jack Davis, and is easily accessible via the URL shown here.
  • #33 Although I have been leading the world of open source information for twenty years, and helping a few very senior leaders in the United Nations for the past five years, it was not until the United Nations High-Level Threat Panel published its findings, a list of the ten threats to humanity in priority order, that I was inspired to conceptualize the United Nations as the leading global practitioner of what I call Information Arbitrage: converting information into peace and prosperity.
  • #34 Since the ten high level threats can be addressed predominantly with open source information, it continues to astonish me that the UN, NATO, and the Member Nations still avoid establishing a global grid to use openly available low-cost and free information to address the ten high-level threats so that we might achieve a world of peace and prosperity—stabilizing prosperity. For this reason, I am deeply impressed by the initiative and intellect of UNIIC in Lebanon, and with your help, we are beginning the long-term process of empowering and enhancing all UN System elements with early warning, multinational information sharing, and decision support.
  • #37 Similarly, while not officially defined by the UN, there are twelve action areas that can be addressed at the strategic, operational (regional), tactical, and technical levels using only open sources & methods. Let me be very clear: I believe that if the UN can develop a global strategy for prioritizing needs in the twelve action areas as related to the ten high-level threats to humanity, that it can mobilize, influence, and even direct $1 trillion per year in charitable giving, and another $1 trillion per year now spent on war instead of peace.
  • #38 I am deeply sympathetic to the concern of analysts who are able to provide Early Warning, and realize that their leadership may not listen, understand, or act. You cannot do it all. Here I depict what DSS can do for the UN System’s security & efficiency by creating Integrated Open Source Analytical Support (IOSAS) now, and—eventually—a global United Nations Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN) that fully integrates and enhances Multinational Information Sharing to achieve Early Warning and Decision Support for all UN and Member Nation missions related to peace, especially stabilization & reconstruction missions where the Civil Affairs organizations can play a special role in applying information to create wealth and thereby produce peace.
  • #39 I am often asked to distill the elements of the analytic challenge into one slide, and this is it. Your first responsibility is to evaluate and communicate the probability of worst case to best case scenarios relevant to UN System security and efficiency. Your second responsibility is to evaluate the casualty potential of threats to the UN System, in order to support decisions about investments in security and operations. Finally, and this is the most difficult and most rewarding aspect, you must evaluate and communicate how enemies of the UN System might achieve surprise.
  • #40 I am indebted to the UNIIIC Security Arabic desk officer for challenging me to evaluate the 14 August 2007 Hezbollah statement. This single page represents discrimination, distillation, and delivery of the meaning that I as a 55-year old analyst derive and wish to communicate to my boss. I evaluate the statement as very high in credibility and probability. Based on my knowledge of the Iranian strategy and of Iranian capabilities in the region, I believe that “surprise” refers to actions against Israel and the US military, outside of Lebanon, and catastrophic in effect. Israel is the volatile actor. The UN should discreetly implore the elected members of Hezbollah to return the two bodies with full honors to Israel, and to restore their participation in parliament. Iran is Persian—they will dominate this region, we should accept this and move on. Peace in the Middle East requires two things: a 50-year strategic plan for the twelve policies and especially education and water; and a UN demand that all Member Nations in the region come together to create a Palestinian state separate from Israel. The Israeli “walls” in Palestine are in my opinion a crime against humanity, and Israel’s continued theft of water from Arab aquifers also an international crime. I place equal blame on the Arab nations for failing to respect the needs of the Palestinians. I know how to solve this. Terje Roed Larsen, with my decision support, can achieve peace and prosperity in the Middle East within twenty years, starting in Lebanon.
  • #41 Analysts are now, and will always be, special. Human analysts with computer-assisted analytic tools are the only means of making sense of the flood of information available, in order to discover, discriminate, distill, and delivery to the decision maker actionable intelligence, also known as decision support.
  • #42 We do not have the time for a year-long course on analysis, but this is one concept I want you to understand. The threat changes depending on the level of analysis. I will use Libyan tanks as an example. At the technical level, they are the best tanks the Russians can provide, and a high threat. At the tactical level, the individuals are not well trained, the tanks have been cannibalized for parts, and they are stored in the open. At the operational level, there are many of them and they can have a negative effect even with the tactical deficiencies. At the strategic level, they cannot be sustained in combat for more than a few weeks, and are therefore irrelevant. HIGH LOW MEDIUM LOW. Four different threat levels depending on the level of analysis.
  • #43 There is a great deal of information on all aspects of open source information exploitation at www.oss.net, for now I just want to illustrate one concept, that of a mission or force analysis cell. Everyone on the planet works for you, you simply have to learn how to identify who knows, reach them, and obtain the information. This is a six-person decision-support cell that can meet the needs of any mission, any force, regardless of its size. The magic is in the formula: the best (few) people; the best technology, and one third of the budget for out-sourcing to obtain “just enough, just in time, exactly right” open source and analytic support services. You are MANAGERS, not “workers.” Ideally you help all UN employees improve their own security & efficiency by showing them the key sources they can exploit but not find. My rule of thumb is that every employee should be an analyst but not spend more than 15 minutes looking for any source. The cell shown here should be responsible for finding sources in under an hour. If it takes more than an hour, it should be out-sourced to one of the tens of thousands professional Information Brokers such as the members of the Association of Independent Information Professionals (AIIP).
  • #44 The grave error that most national “intelligence” communities make is that they confuse secrecy with intelligence, and do not respect the breadth and depth of information that can be acquired from the other seven (now eight) tribes of intelligence. The United Nations, as an open, legal, ethical organization, has an opportunity to “capture” the 96% of the information that is not secret, and to achieve its objectives by leading the way in both multinational information sharing, and in harnessing the distributed intelligence of the eight tribes. Information Peacekeeping is going to earn a Nobel Prize one day. The United Nations should earn that prize by leading us all using information arbitrage to achieve peace and (stabilizing) prosperity.
  • #45 We are entering a new era in which war and peace are defined by information, by brains, not by firepower. The old paradigm has all of the flaws listed here. The new paradigm, and I am extremely respectful of the Honorable Brahimi, is the complete opposite of the old paradigm. Understand me clearly: Leo Powell’s concept of an integrated open source analytical support element is both brilliant, and legal, ethical, and open. It could enhance the DSS mission by a factor of 1000 to 10,000.
  • #46 My second book, THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE: Personal, Public, & Political, lays out the future of intelligence as I believe the citizen-taxpayer must insist it be. Specifically, we can no longer afford to ignore either history or the historical statements of other players in their own languages.
  • #47 Specifically, we must devise a means of sharing the burden of monitoring all open sources in all languages all the time.
  • #48 Specifically, we must harness the considerable knowledge we have in our private sector.
  • #49 As a former spy, and as one of the founders of the Marine Corps Intelligence Command, I am often frustrated by the obsession that we have with secrecy, and with intelligence. I will tell you what I have learned in the past sixteen years. I have learned that 90% of what we call intelligence is not secret; and I have learned that at least 70% of what we need to know and need to share is not intelligence. These pie charts depict my view of what is share-able among the seven tribes without any attention to restricted, private, or secret information. We are not going for the green, and we need to.
  • #51 I urge you to use www.oss.net/BASIC to access and digest my 15 lectures. DSS can and should create a global data sharing standard that includes total encryption of all information when “at rest.” This means that the UN can utilize public communications because all of its information is totally encrypted in the “data at rest” mode, and visible only when on the screen of an authorized user. Given the number of laptops, flash drives, and external drives that are lost every day, this is a vital part of enhancing UN System Security.
  • #52 I want to emphasize to you that the fastest way for the UN System to improve both its security and its efficiency is to do three things: Every mission must publicize for the public a 24/7 number that a human answers, to receive any early warning of threats to the UN. A geospatial plot allows all UN mission elements to “control” their own information while sharing with all other UN elements. Every UN employee must have 24/7 access to the Internet at 100MB speed. This is a non-negotiable first step toward making the UN the world’s most important information collector, producer, and consumer, in order for the UN to achieve 360° security & efficiency.
  • #53 I understand the UN culture. It is similar to other bureaucratic cultures. Information is treated as a good to be hoarded, rather than shared. Egos dominate over brains. The fastest way to empower the UN and change the culture and begin to bring peace and prosperity to the world is to share information while demanding high speed Internet access. If the UN will issue a legal ethical procurement request for comments, I am certain that CISCO, Amazon, Apple, Sun, and IBM could join with the STRONG ANGEL humanitarian assistance information team to define a global grid for early warning, multinational information sharing, and decision support. The Coaltion Coordination Center in Tampa could be the “brain of the firm” and Civil Affairs units all over the world could be supporting field representatives for sharing information that can enhance peace and prosperity at the neighborhood level.
  • #54 We will not spend much time here. I want you to study on your own time, but these 40 hours we have together are going to allow you each to do 400 hours of self-study. You are the Class Before One. That is a huge honor. You are the vanguard, the leaders.
  • #55 Most governments and organizations are in Quadrant One, the most elementary of the four quadrants.
  • #56 The “Digital Natives” (this includes many of you as UN employees and volunteers), are the pioneers for using technology to connect dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. The Class Before One is a step in the right direction that embodies security and efficiency through early warning, multinational information sharing, and decision support.
  • #57 The single biggest mistake that most bureaucracies make, both Member Nation bureaucracies and non-governmental or international organizations, is to ignore external information. Peter Drucker has given us our guidance. We must focus on Information instead of on Technology. This is simple: it is about you, the Class Before One, developing new ways of connecting dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people.
  • #58 Our ultimate objective is to make the UN the most intelligent organization on the planet. This requires that the UN be able to preserve the knowledge of every employee, forever. A simple example: today’s “Rolodexes” generally have a name and a number. They do not have the history, context, or details of the contact and its relevance to the UN System. That is something we need to fix.
  • #59 These eighteen functionalities are not available today, in part because Microsoft migrated and mutated its Application Program Interfaces (API) in order to deter third-party developers. OSS is moving to Apple and Open Office Aqua, and we support the global open source software movement. If the UN System were to announce its commitment to open source software, all of these functionalities would be available to every UN employee within five years. The Defense Advanced Projects Agency (DARPA) has been sponsoring the STRONG ANGEL open source intitative, I believe they have a wealth of knowledge that the UN can harvest at no expense. I certainly recommend that DSS send observzation team to the next STRONG ANGEL.
  • #60 These are the existing softwares. Selected elements of the UN use Groove. OSS does not like Groove because it is too hard to use and does not integrate third party softwares. Total encryption for “data at rest” is now available, and this opens up for the UN the possibility of utilizing commercial Internet communications capabilities.
  • #61 This is the list of what US Special Operations Command’s Open Source Intelligence Branch uses. They are not integrated and are very labor intensive. The next generation of tools is represented by Open Office Aqua on a Macintosh, and Talend Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) technology. We can also do much better at outsourcing the manual work to lower cost labor pools while the visualization and analysis remains inhouse. That applies to language translation as well as data conversion.
  • #62 I encourage you to review all of my lectures as listed at www.oss.net/BASIC. Here are just a few of the new rules for the new craft of intelligence or decision support. It’s not about Nations anymore, it is about neighborhoods.
  • #63 Adapt or die. Communicate and share, or die.
  • #64 The UN System, like all other bureaucracies, is broken. The good people within this bad system must learn to work collaboratively and informally in order to save the UN System and make it more effective.
  • #65 Most organizations know what they need to know, but cannot find that knowledge when needed. Our goal in the next twenty five years is to help the UN find what it needs to know free, get what it needs to know free, buy what is needs to know at very low cost, and as a last resort, task organic elements to learn what it needs to know.
  • #66 The mandates that the UN System creates are severely deficient in most case because the UN System lacks strategic intelligence. Similarly, the forces and agencies employed are lacking in efficiency and effectiveness because the UN System lacks operational or regional intelligence in advance of the force composition An organized grasp of history, reality, and future opportunity can create options for peace and prosperity. The UN System can be much improved by creating an early warning, multinational information sharing, and decision support capability.
  • #67 The Security Risk Assessment, or SRA, is a principal manifestation of the DSS role. The exercise you will complete tonight, as devised by Leo Powell, will help you think about what information is missing, and how you might obtain that information with your new knowledge. Remember that you can ask me questions at any time.
  • #68 The current definition of the SRA, as a single document for a single country, can be improved. Here in Lebanon I believe we need twelve distinct SRA’s, differentiating between the three regions (north, Beirut, south) and the four targets (mission, fixed, mobile, individual).
  • #69 I created this slide in the early 1990’s and 18 years later the secret world still does not get it and the private sector is not paying attention. We are in a strategic interregnum where the first major player—be it Amazon, Google, Wikipedia, or the UN System—to actually adopt all these ideas, will in my view become the unbeatable hub for a World Brain where every information transaction will yield a profit.
  • #70 This is the most talented librarian and open source researcher on the planet. His name is Arno Reuser and he is in charge of the Dutch military intelligence open source unit. The Dutch Parliament, in the 1990’s, directed that all threats must be studied first with open sources, and that other methods can only be used if open sources are not sufficient. Around the world, organizations are discovering that up to 96% of their needs can be met with information at very low cost. It is my personal view that the UN can monetize its existing publicly-releasable information by making it available to an information service that can pay for the information with sense-making and royalties.
  • #71 This is a strategic depiction of how the UN might seek to influence $2 trillion a year in spending on the twelve policies addressing the ten threats and helping the eight big players avoid the mistakes of America and Europe. This could be the basis for a pilot project among Amazon, CISCO AON, and IBM as well as OSS and the Earth Intelligence Network, a new non-profit. You can see daily feeds, weekly summaries, and forecasts combined with weekly histories for each of these thirty topics, at www.oss.net and also www.earth-intelligence.net. Now imagine if the UN had a prioritized budget for each of these, using UN decision support to influence charitable giving and government assistance to less fortunate Member Nations.
  • #72 If a major information company can integrate global information, including numbers, and join with IBM in doing massive sense-making, then we have an opportunity to create marketable profitable public intelligence in the public interest. I even envision a “Moody’s” that rates governments and corporations by their information transparency as well as their information responsibility. The UN could have enormous influence beyond its own budget if it creates this kind of decision support visible to the public.
  • #75 The fastest way to improve our common understanding of regional challenges of common concern—from terrorism, piracy, and crime, to corruption, refugees, starvation, poverty, and other stimulators or consequences of ungovernability, is to establish regional information centers with American money and coalition talent. Such centers can begin with open sources, and rapidly expand to include integrated clandestine and technical collection teams. Each regional theater command could and should seek funding from USDI for a regional early warning & information sharing network.
  • #91 In my view, the DSS leadership associated with the Tribunal is the single best point from which to develop a pilot program for UN System security and efficiency stemming from global near-real-time access to all information in all languages. In my view, the single fastest way to improve UN security and efficiency is to fund a policy that guarantees every UN employee with 100MB reliable Internet access 24/7. In my view, the UN should also consider using money budgeted for unfilled positions to outsource all risk assessments while also expanding the SRA to distinguish between mission, fixed sites, movement, and individuals, and also distinguish between capital cities and provincial areas.
  • #92 It has been my privilege for several years to be the primary provider of legal ethical open sources to the U.S. Special Operations Command and the U.S. Central Command, both based in Tampa. I have discussed with both of those organizations the value of converting the existing coalition coordination center into a Multinational Information Sharing Activity that could also provide legal ethical analytic and decision support to all peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance missions. All the UN has to do is ask the senior American military officer at the UN to arrange for a visit to Tampa to inquire of these two commands their interest in exchanging full access to unrestricted UN information in return for the CCC/MISA receiving a mandate to provide direct analytic and decision support to all UN Forces and Agencies.