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2001* Embraer ProjeçãO Da Demanda
Embraer forecasts strong growth in the regional airline market over the next decade. Regional jets are becoming more widely used in the US and Europe, with passengers increasing by 5-7% annually and aircraft growing larger and flying longer routes on average. Regional jets are opening new route opportunities for airlines and replacing aging turboprops and jets. Embraer expects around 8,000 new regional aircraft deliveries over the next 10 years.
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Similar to 2001* Embraer ProjeçãO Da Demanda
2001* Embraer ProjeçãO Da Demanda
- 1. Embraer Market Forecast Jun 2001
- 2. Contents QRegional Airline Market Review Q The Regional Jet Phenomena Q Major Issues Impacting Future Demand Q Embraer Market Forecast Jun 2001
- 3. Regional Airline Market Passengers by Region Passengers by Region Source: Airline Business Jun 2001
- 4. Regional Airline Market- USA Passengers Enplaned (millions) 160 139 140 120 100 85 80 60 Forecast 40 10% 5% 20 Average Projected Average Annual Growth Annual Growth 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: RAA, Embraer Jun 2001
- 5. US Regional EnplanementsIncreasing Passenger U.S. Regional Airlines Enplanements (Millions) % of Domestic Traffic 1,000 Major 800 600 400 200 14% 12 % 7% 3% Regional 0 1970 1970 1985 1985 2000 2000 2010F 2010F Source: RAA, FAA Jun 2001
- 6. US Regional AircraftSize Increasing Average Seating Capacity Seats per Aircraft 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2010F 2010F Source: FAA, RAA, Embraer Jun 2001
- 7. US Regional AircraftFlying Longer Average Trip Length (Km) 750 750 600 600 450 450 300 300 150 150 0 0 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2010F 2010F Source: FAA, RAA, Embraer Jun 2001
- 8. Regional Airline Market- Europe Passengers Enplaned (millions) 160 142 140 120 100 80 72 60 Forecast 40 11% 7% Average Projected Average 20 Annual Growth Annual Growth 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2005 2008 1992 1999 Source: ERAA, Embraer Jun 2001
- 9. European Regional AircraftSize Increasing Average Seating Capacity Seats per Aircraft 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2010F 2010F Source: ERAA, Embraer Jun 2001
- 10. European Regional AircraftFlying Longer Average Trip Length (Km) 750 750 600 600 450 450 300 300 150 150 0 0 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2010F 2010F Source: ERAA, Embraer Jun 2001
- 11.
- 12. Regional Jet Applications Turboprop Complement 12% New Routes 29% Turboprop Replacement 9% Jet Jet Replacement Complement 25% 25% Q Nearly 80% of regional jet applications come from new opportunities (capacity rightsizing, increased hub catchment area, new point to point routes), missions beyond the traditional turboprop role Source: BACK Jun 2001
- 13. Regional Jet StageLength - USA 180,000 2:40 120,000 Flight Time Annual Flights 60,000 2000 1998 0 1996 0 500 1,000 1,500 Sector Distance (km) Source: OAG BACK Jun 2001
- 14. Continental Express Network Turboprop Cleveland Houston-Milwaukee ERJ (1585 km, 02:55) Newark Mont Rose (1490 km, 02:20) Houston Ixtapa (1510 km, 02:20) Source: OAG BACK Jun 2001
- 15. Regional Jet Productivity ContinentalExpress’ Newark Hub example Continental Express’ Newark Hub example 16% 16% Turboprop Turboprop 100% 100% Turboprop Turboprop 84% 84% Jet Jet 1996 1996 2001 2001 1996 1996 2001 2001 % Diff. % Diff. Daily Departures Daily Departures 129 129 110 110 -22 -22 Average Average 199 199 406 406 +104 +104 Sector Length (sm) Sector Length (sm) Daily ASMs (millions) Daily ASMs (millions) 1.06 1.06 1.98 1.98 +87 +87 Source: OAG BACK Jun 2001
- 16. The Trend toAll-Jet Fleet Hopkins Airport Cleveland, Ohio USA Jun 2001
- 17. Regional Jets areReplacing Turboprops Baton Rouge Bloomington Greensboro Greenville Cedar Rapids Champaign Huntsville Indianapolis Chattanooga Cincinnati Kalamazoo La Crosse Cleveland Columbus Madison Memphis Dayton Des Moines Milwaukee NW Arkansas Dubuque Duluth Omaha Peoria Evansville Fort Wayne Pittsburgh South Bend Grand Rapids Green Bay Toledo Traverse City Jun 2001
- 18. Regional Jet StageLength - Europe 90,000 2:40 60,000 Flight Time Annual Flights 30,000 2000 2000 0 1998 1998 0 500 1,000 1,500 Sector Distance (km) Source: OAG BACK Jun 2001
- 19. Crossair Network Stockholm (1500 km, 02:40) Turboprop ERJ Basel Zurich Sevilla (1570 km, 02:30) Source: OAG BACK Jun 2001
- 20. LOT Polish AirlinesNetwork Oslo (1070 km, 02:00) St. Petersburg (1030 km, 01:55) Turboprop ERJ Warsaw Bucharest (930 km, 01:50) Nice (1390 km, 02:40) Source: OAG BACK Jun 2001
- 21. RJ High Frequencystarting in Europe From Bristol, UK From Bristol, UK Airlines: BA Airlines: BA To Edinburgh, UK To Edinburgh, UK Date/Time Date/Time 30/Jan/2001 – 06:00a 30/Jan/2001 – 06:00a Days Days Flight Flight Depart Depart Arrive Arrive Eqp Eqp Stop Stop Duration Duration xSaSu BA 4032 xSaSu BA 4032 7:30a 7:30a BRS BRS 8:45a 8:45a EDI EDI ERJ ERJ 0 0 01:15 01:15 xSaSu BA 4034 xSaSu BA 4034 9:15a 9:15a BRS BRS 10:30a 10:30a EDI EDI ERJ ERJ 0 0 01:15 01:15 xSaSu BA 4036 xSaSu BA 4036 1:05p 1:05p BRS BRS 2:20p 2:20p EDI EDI ERJ ERJ 0 0 01:15 01:15 xSa xSa BA 4038 BA 4038 4:00p 4:00p BRS BRS 5:15p 5:15p EDI EDI ERJ ERJ 0 0 01:15 01:15 xSaSu xSaSu BA 4040 BA 4040 5:20p 5:20p BRS BRS 6:35p 6:35p EDI EDI ERJ ERJ 0 0 01:15 01:15 xSa xSa BA 4042 BA 4042 7:45p 7:45p BRS BRS 9:00p 9:00p EDI EDI ERJ ERJ 0 0 01:15 01:15 Jun 2001
- 22. RJs Complement withLarger Jets From Lisbon, Portugal Airline: Portugalia (NI) To Porto, Portugal Date: 04/Jun/2001 Days Flight Depart Arrive Eqp Stop Duration xSaSu NI 100 7:30a LIS 8:15a OPO 100 0 00:45 xSa NI 532 8:45a LIS 9:30a OPO 100 0 00:45 xSaSu NI 547 11:20a LIS 12:05p OPO 100 0 00:45 xSaSu NI 807 1:45p LIS 2:30p OPO ERJ 0 00:45 xSa NI 600 2:30p LIS 3:15p OPO 100 0 00:45 MoTuSu NI 816 3:05p LIS 3:50p OPO ERJ 0 00:45 xSa NI 720 4:00p LIS 4:45p OPO ERJ 0 00:45 xSa NI 533 5:10p LIS 5:55p OPO 100 0 00:45 xSaSu NI 106 5:50p LIS 6:35p OPO ERJ 0 00:45 MoTu NI 809 6:45p LIS 7:30p OPO 100 0 00:45 xSaSu NI 122 7:30p LIS 8:15p OPO 100 0 00:45 xSa NI 911 8:00p LIS 8:45p OPO ERJ 0 00:45 xSa NI 721 11:45p LIS 0:30a OPO ERJ 0 00:45 Jun 2001
- 23. Responding to MarketNeeds Jun 2001
- 24. Responding to MarketNeeds Jun 2001
- 25. Responding to MarketNeeds Jun 2001
- 26. Anticipating Market Needs ERJ 170 ERJ 170 70 Seats 70 Seats First Flight First Flight 2001 (Q4) 2001 (Q4) First Delivery 2002 (Q4) First Delivery 2002 (Q4) 2,100 nm Range 2,100 nm Range ERJ 190-200 108 Seats ERJ 190-200 108 Seats First Flight First Flight 2003 (Q3) 2003 (Q3) First Delivery 2004 (Q2) First Delivery 2004 (Q2) 1,800 nm Range 1,800 nm Range ERJ 190-100 98 Seats ERJ 190-100 98 Seats First Flight First Flight 2004 (Q3) 2004 (Q3) First Delivery 2005 (Q2) First Delivery 2005 (Q2) 2,300 nm Range 2,300 nm Range Jun 2001
- 27. Anticipating Market Needs Jun 2001
- 28. Market Issues Impacting FutureDemand Jun 2001
- 29. Economic Scenario Real GDP Growth (%) Countries representing Country 2001 2002 2005 2006-2010 75% of World Capacity (aircraft up to 100 seats) USA 1.9 3.7 3.3 3.2 Canada 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.0 France 2.1 2.3 3.0 2.9 Germany, UK, Italy 1.7 1.8 2.7 2.6 France, Italy 12% Germany 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.2 UK 2.6 3.0 2.4 2.4 Others Japan 0.0 1.6 2.4 2.3 USA, Canada, 25% China 7.5 7.0 7.8 7.9 Mexico, Brazil Australia 2.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 58% Japan, India, India 7.0 7.5 7.2 7.6 Australia, Brazil 3.4 3.0 4.6 4.6 China 5% Mexico 2.4 5.8 5.0 5.0 WORLD 2.0 3.1 3.4 3.3 Source: Merrill Lynch, Consensus Economics, OAG BACK Q The worldwide economic scenario is favorable to continuous growth of air transport traffic demand in the next 10 years Jun 2001
- 30. Scope Clauses -USA Q unlimited quantity for jets up to 59 seats Q unlimited quantity for jets up to 44 seats, restriction of 67 jets from 50 to 70 seats Q unlimited quantity for jets up to 70 seats Q nearly 400 units of jets up to 50 seats Q unlimited quantity for jets up to 44 seats, up to 30 units of jets from 45 to 50 seats Q Reduced short term prospects for 70-seat jet in the USA Q In the medium to long term, airlines will work out labor agreements to meet their market needs Jun 2001
- 31. Scope Clauses -Europe Q Not as restrictive as in the USA. Q Usually around 100+ seats. Q Will allow for larger growth in the 60-120 seat segment. Jun 2001
- 32. Environment (Noise andEmissions) Q Regulations are becoming more stringent, imposing restrictions and taxes on higher noise and emissions airplanes. Q Environmental groups are pressing national governments to establish “green taxes” that could penalize airlines because of perceived aircraft pollution. Q Committee on Aviation and Environmental Protection (CAEP): studying policy options to define more stringent noise standards and to limit or reduce greenhouse gases emissions from civil aviation. Jun 2001
- 33. Congestion - USA % Reported Flight Operations arriving Delayed 35 30 1998 1999 2000 25 20 15 10 5 0 Continental American Delta Source: US DOT QATC systems and airport infrastructure have not kept pace with air transport growth. Investments are required to be consistent with projected air transport growth. Jun 2001
- 34. Congestion - Europe % of Departures delayed more than 15 min Delays by Cause 35 30 10% 6% ATC (route) 25 4% 20 Weather 4% 15 Military 10 ATC (capacity) 5 0 76% Others 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: AEA Q Despite the collaborative approach under development with the air traffic service providers, air traffic flow management restrictions are the current main cause of delays. Q “Single Sky” concept (fifteen countries, one single sky - Eurocontrol) is the solution for current poor performance of the European fragmented ATC System, but the solution is more political than technical. Jun 2001
- 35. Market Forecast Jun 2001
- 36. Market Forecast 2001-2010 30-60 Seats 30-60 Seats 2,085 Jets 2,085 Jets Jun 2001
- 37. Market Forecast 2001-2010 61-90 Seats 61-90 Seats 1,200 Jets 1,200 Jets Jun 2001
- 38. Market Forecast 2001-2010 91-120 Seats 91-120 Seats 1,650 Jets 1,650 Jets Jun 2001
- 39. Market Forecast 2001-2010 World Deliveries by Segment World Deliveries by Segment Segment Type (Units) 30 - 60 Jet 2085 Turboprop 290 30-60 TP 61-90 TP 5% 2% 61 - 90 Jet 1200 91-120 Jet 31% 30-60 Jet Turboprop 110 40% 91 - 120 Jet 1650 61-90 Jet Total 5335 22% Jet 4935 TP 400 World (30-120 seat segment): 4935 jets (US$115 Billion) World (30-120 seat segment): 4935 jets (US$115 Billion) Jun 2001
- 40. Market Forecast 2001-2010 30-120 Seats 30-120 Seats 4,935 Jets 4,935 Jets Jun 2001
- 41. Embraer Commercial AircraftProducts from turboprops ... to commercial jets ERJ 170 ERJ 135 EMB 110 ERJ 140 ERJ 190-100 EMB 120 ERJ 190-200 ERJ 145 Jun 2001
- 42. Worldwide Program OrderBook Firm Firm Deliveries Deliveries Firm Firm Options Options Orders Orders Backlog Backlog ERJ 135/140/145 Family ERJ 135/140/145 Family 836 836 418 418 418 418 401 401 ERJ 170/190 Family ERJ 170/190 Family 120 120 0 0 120 120 205 205 Total ERJ Total ERJ 956 956 418 418 538 538 606 606 May 2001 Jun 2001
- 43. Thank you! Jun 2001