Migration trends in Southern Africa show that migration is largely domestic and driven by economic opportunities rather than conflict. Most migration occurs through long-term circular patterns or urbanization rather than cross-border movement. While regional policies aim to facilitate free movement, in reality most migration is managed through bilateral agreements due to concerns about labor migration. As a result, irregular migration is common in the region. Restrictive migration policies have been ineffective and expensive, with negative social and economic impacts. There is a need for evidence-based, pragmatic policies that recognize regional migration dynamics and address the drivers of both migrant and citizen vulnerabilities.

1. Migration, Mobility & Social Integration
Southern African trends and their implications
African Centre for Migration & Society (ACMS), School of Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, P.O. Box 76, Wits 2050, South Africa
T: +27 11 717 4033 | F: +27 11 717 4040 | info@migration.org.za | www.migration.org.za
Presentation to portfolio committee on home affairs
Prof Ingrid Palmary
African Centre for Migration & Society

2. African Centre for Migration & Society
ACMS-Southern Africa2
• Graduate degree programme with students from across
Africa, North America, and Europe
• Research in 12 African countries on issues related to
migration, human rights, development, governance, and
social change
• Partnerships on 4 continents
• Regional reference point for public and scholarly debate
and policy formation
An internationally engaged; Africa-oriented; and African-
based research and teaching centre dedicated to shaping
academic and policy debates on migration, development
and social transformation

3. Migration Dynamics: Qualifications & Qualities
• Migration is fundamentally about
empowerment: movement is about improving
individual, household, and collective status,
social, economic and physical security
• Data missing and suspect: Data quality
worsened by legal and bureaucratic apparatus,
proprietary data collection, and limited scholarly
research
• Data tends to be overly aggregated:
Sources, residential sites, impacts and
experienced deeply spatialised (down to the
neighbourhood level).
• Research, policy debates, and policy
frameworks dominated by South Africa:
As centre of the migration system, home to
most research, and sub-regional hegomon, S.A.
experience overshadows important processes
elsewhere.

4. Regional Migration Dynamics: Main Points
• International migration relatively constant : As proportion of total
population, was 3.4% in 1990; 3.7% in 2010. Refugees between 2.1% (2010)
and 7.6% (1995) of international migrants .
• Long-term circular migration continued, but complemented and transformed
by less structured movements, displacements and other forms of mobility
• Domestic migration and urbanisation critical livelihood option and
integration challenge. In RSA, close to 3% of population moving across
Provincial boundaries in last 5 years (many more within).
• Urbanisation already high in the region, intra-urban mobility rife.
• Feminization: Percent of women is increasing 38.6 in 1990 to 43.3 in 2010.
Increasingly diverse migration trajectories.
• Highly spatialised and dynamic (more later…)

5. Southern
African
Migration
in
Continental
Perspective
Source: Ratha et al.
World Bank 2011

6. Migration in Global Perspective
Source: HDRO staff estimates based on University of Sussex (2007) database

7. Sources of refugees in Africa & globally
Source: UNHCR Global Trends 2010

8. Continental Comparison
Source: Ratha et al. World Bank 2011

9. What’s going on: A new urban frontier
• African cities are growing rapidly
due to high fertility and mobility
• Fastest growth is small towns
and the urban periphery
•Often beyond municipal
boundaries
•Poorly institutionalized spaces
•Continued spatial mobility
•Enormous inequality
•Social, legal and political
heterogeneity

10. Urbanization in selected African countries
Source: http://esa.un.org/unup/
1985 1995 2005 2015
(projected)
Angola 30.3 44.0 54.0 62.5
Botswana 26.7 49.0 57.3 64.5
Kenya 17.0 19.0 20.7 24.1
Liberia 40.3 50.0 58.1 64.8
Mozambique 16.7 26.2 34.5 42.4
South Africa 49.4 55.4 59.3 64.1
Tanzania 16.8 20.5 24.2 28.9
Zimbabwe 25.4 31.7 35.9 40.9

11. 44% of
Gauteng’s
population were
born in a
different
province
Census 2011
28.1% of
Western Cape’s
population were
born in a
different
province
4.4% of the
South African
population were
born outside of
South Africa
2,199,871 people
were born
outside of South
Africa

12. Summary of migration trends
• Largely domestic and this has
been ignored in policy, planning
and public concern
• Where it is cross-border its
circular
• Is driven by economics and
opportunities rather than
conflict
ACMS-Southern Africa12

13. Regional Integration? The role of SADC?
• SADC has express purpose of enhancing economic and social
integration among member states.
• The founding Declaration and treaty commits to facilitating free
movement of capital goods labour and people.
• However the SADC protocol on Facilitation of Movement (already a
watered down version of the first draft protocol on free movement) has
not been ratified by the required 2/3 member states and is not
enforced.
• Most migration is managed through bilateral agreements
• It would seem that the reluctance to regionalise is driven by a fear of
labour migration as a threat.
• Consequence of all of this is that much labour migration is irregular and
unmanaged in the SADC region.
• Takes place in context of global securitization of migration
ACMS-Southern Africa[13]

14. International policy experiences
ACMS-Southern Africa14
Take Me Away From the City
Senzo Shabanugu
• Not been possible to stop migration (US,
South Africa have tried)
• Restrictive policies are extremely expensive,
and ineffective
• Global pressure shapes Southern African
policy making
• Policy reform driven by interests, not needs
• Need for policies based on regional migration
patterns and economic and social need
• International migration gets attention but is
not where migration challenges lie
• Regionalism and international initiatives
unlikely to have dramatic effects
• Examples of liberalized migration policy
suggest that labour migration is not the
threat it is assumed to be

15. Implications cont: Deportation
experiences in SA
ACMS-Southern Africa[15]
South African repatriation/deportation of undocumented migrants (Source: Departme
Repatriations/removals Mozambique Zimbabwe Lesotho Total
1994 71,279 12,931 4073 90,692
1995 131,689 17,549 4087 157,084
1996 157,425 14,651 3344 180,713
1997 146,285 21,673 4077 176,351
1998 141,506 28,548 4900 181,286
1999 123,961 42,769 6003 183,861
2000 84738 45,922 5871 145,575
2001 94,404 47,697 5977 156,123
2002 83,695 38,118 5278 151,653
2003 82,067 55,753 7447 164,294
2004 167,137
2005 209,988

16. Regional integration at local level
• Has been increasing attention to social cohesion /
integration from 2010
• South African social cohesion policies have not
adequately dealt with anti-foreigner sentiment and
overtly promotes national identity
• Connections to xenophobic violence are loose and
unclear
• Common values are not necessary for cohesive societies
• Is not specific to foreigners but also present among
South Africans
ACMS-Southern Africa[16]

17. Connections to migration trends
• Integration is not a problem faced by foreigners but
one faced by all in SA cities
• Transience is part of South African cities and will
continue
• Awareness campaigns have had very little success
• Need to develop local institutions of law and
democracy to address conflict
• Rhetoric on integration has often simply scapegoated
migrants.
ACMS-Southern Africa[17]

18. Regional integration: SA policy
Policy:
• Beyond knee jerk or simple exclusion
• Evidence based and pragmatic policy is lacking
• Are contradictory and competing messages (support for
displaced and arrests and deportations)
Consequences:
• Expensive and ineffective responses
• A large number of people who are ‘invisible’
• Negative impacts on health, economy
• Failure to address the needs and frustrations of South Africans

19. Conclusions
• Improve data collection and
technocratic capacity
• Need for migration responses that
speak to Southern African regional
dynamics
• Simple restrictive policies have far
reaching negative consequences for
economic, health and social
protection
• Managing popular sentiment and its
impact on policy making remains a
challenge
ACMS-Southern Africa19
Take Me Away From the City
Senzo Shabanugu

20. Migration, Mobility & Social Integration
Southern African trends and their implications
African Centre for Migration & Society (ACMS), School of Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, P.O. Box 76, Wits 2050, South Africa
T: +27 11 717 4033 | F: +27 11 717 4040 | info@migration.org.za | www.migration.org.za
Presentation to portfolio committee on home affairs
Prof Ingrid Palmary
African Centre for Migration & Society