The document summarizes the political situation in Russia, including the ruling political regime, economic challenges, and the protest movement. It notes that the protest movement is dominated by a new post-industrial middle class dissatisfied with corruption and lack of political freedom. While initially united, the protest movement has split between neoliberals and leftists. Traditional political parties have remained distant from the protests due to conservative voters and Kremlin counterstrategies. The forecast predicts continued small protests in Moscow and potential regional unrest unless political and economic reforms are implemented.

2. SITUATION IN BRIEF
BONAPARTIST POLITICAL REGIME
POPULIST
POWERED BY LARGE BUSINESSES AND SILOVIKI – SECURITY AND POLICE FORCES
VISIBLY STRONG – IMAGE OF STABILITY, CONTRAST TO CHAOS OF 1990S
RISING SALARIES AND PENSIONS
BUDGET CRISIS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL
GROWING SPLIT BETWEEN CENTER AND REGIONS
STALLED ECONOMY (2013 GDP GROWTH 1.8%, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.5%)
68% OF BUSINESS PEOPLE EXPECT CRISIS IN THE NEAR FUTURE
CONTINUED ALIENATION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS
UNMANAGEABLE CORRUPTION
DEFICIT OF QUALITY GOVERNMENT MANAGEMENT
NATIONALIZATION OF THE ELITES
“GIVE EVERYTHING TO YOUR FRIENDS AND LAW TO YOUR ENEMIES”

3. POLITICAL FORCES IN RUSSIA
4 PARLIAMENTARY POLITICAL PARTIES
RULING PARTY (51%) – UNITED RUSSIA. POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY NEOLIBERAL
MAIN OPPOSITION (20%) – COMMUNIST PARTY. POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY LEFT
OPPOSITION – FAIR RUSSIA (SOCIAL-DEMOCRATIC). POLITICALLY SWINGS, ECONOMICALLY LEFT
POPULIST – LIBERAL-DEMOCRATIC. POLITICALLY ULTRA CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY SWINGS
MAJOR NON-PARLIAMENTARY PARTIES
RPR-PARNAS (REPUBLICAN – PEOPLE’S FREEDOM PARTY) – NEOLIBERAL
NATIONAL-DEMOCRATIC PARTY – NATIONALISTS
YABLOKO – LIBERAL
CIVIL PLATFORM – NEOLIBERAL
CLOUD OF FAKE POLITICAL PARTIES
NAVALNY (PEOPLE’S ALLIANCE) – POPULIST, NATIONALIST, NEOLIBERAL

4. HISTORY OF THE PROTEST
MOVEMENT
ANTIBUREACRATIC PROTEST OF “UNITED DEMOCRATS” 1986-91 :
PROMOTION OF YELTSYN, NATIONAL LIBERATION MOVEMENTS IN SOVIET REPUBLICS, CRASH OF THE
USSR
PROTEST AGAIN “SHOCK THERAPY” 1992-93 :
SUPPRESSED BY MILITARY FORCES, SUPREME SOVIET SHOT BY TANKS, NEW CONSTITUTION
PROTEST AGAINST INDUSTRIAL CRISIS «RAILWAY WARS» 1997-99
INSPIRED AND USED TO REDISTRIBUTE ASSETS BY NEW RUSSIAN BUSINESSMEN
PROTEST AGAINST MONETIZATION OF PRIVILEGES 2005
SOCIAL SPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES, «CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY» IS BEING FORMED
PROTEST AGAINST ELECTION FRAUD 2011-12
BEGINNING OF OPEN CLASH BETWEEN EMERGING MIDDLE CLASS AND THE CONSERVATIVES

5. MAJOR TENDENCIES
NEW WAVE EACH 6 YEARS
PROTEST IS INSPIRED BY A PARTICULAR EVENT, WHILE SOCIAL
OR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ARE JUST PREREQUISITE
EACH WAVE IS BEING USED BY A CERTAIN ELITE GROUP FOR
ACHIEVING ITS OWN AGENDA, QUITE FAR FROM THE
PROTESTERS’ DEMANDS

6. CURRENT PROTEST ENVIRONMENT
FOUR TYPES OF PROTEST:
POLITICAL PROTEST (CAPITALS)
SOCIAL (MAJOR CITIES)
PROTEST AGAINST LOCAL PROBLEMS
(SMALL TOWNS, RURAL AREAS, LABOR UNIONS)
ETHNICAL PROTEST

7. SPECIFICS OF THE NEW PROTEST
ACTIVE FORMATION OF THE NEW POSTINDUSTRIAL CLASS
TERMS «MIDDLE» OR «CREATIVE CLASS» ARE MISGUIDING
IN MOSCOW ~25-35% OF THE POPULATION, IN MAJOR CITIES ~5-10%
DOMINATED BY YOUNG, SUCCESSFUL AND FORMERLY APOLITICAL PEOPLE
WOKEN BY THE «SWAP» ON SEPTEMBER, 24TH 2011 AND THE FOLLOWING ELECTIONS
TEND TO BE NEOLIBERAL OR EVEN LIBERTARIAN
FUELED BY ANTIGOVERNMENT PROTEST – ANTI-CORRUPTION AND HUMAN RIGHTS
DOES NOT CREATE POLITICAL STRUCTURES
INFANTILE, CONSIDERS ITS OWN PROBLEMS UNIVERSAL
LITTLE INTEREST TO THE PROBLEMS OF «COMMON PEOPLE»
ACTIVELY CREATES VIRTUAL NETWORKS AND ANONYMOUS GROUPS

8. MAJOR OBJECTIVES
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTED DEMANDS:
POLITICAL REFORM AND FREE ELECTIONS
FREEDOM OF SPEECH
FIGHT WITH THE CORRUPTION AND BUREAUCRACY
JUDICIAL REFORM AND RELEASE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS
DEMANDS SUPPORTED BY MAJORITY:
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND SHIFT TOWARDS PARLIAMENTARY REPUBLIC
DEMANDS OF THE LEFT:
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS

9. CITY MOVEMENT POLITICAL STRUCTURE
INITIALLY COALITION OF 4 FACTIONS: NEOLIBERALS, LEFTISTS, NATIONALISTS AND “APOLITICAL”
CIVIL GROUPS
IN MOSCOW IN 2012 - ~50% NEOLIBERALS, 35% LEFTISTS, 15% NATIONALISTS
CAUTIOUS SUPPORT FROM TRADITIONAL PARTIES (FAIR RUSSIA, YABLOKO, COMMUNISTS, CIVIL PLATFORM)
AS PROTESTS BECAME MORE RADICAL, LEFTISTS GAINED SUPPORT, MAXIMUM IN MAY 2012
STREET RIOTS ON MAY 6TH, 2012
DURING MAY 2012 – OCCUPY MOSCOW MOVEMENT, DOMINATED BY LEFTISTS
FALL 2012 – “COORDINATION COUNCIL OF THE OPPOSITION” ESTABLISHED
QUASI-PARLIAMENT
DOMINATED BY NEOLIBERALS, LEFTISTS OPPOSED
SPLIT WITH TRADITIONAL PARTIES
“APOLITICAL” VOLUNTEERS MOVEMENT, WHICH GREW OUT OCCUPY MOVEMENT DURING FLOODING IN KRYMSK,
ABSTAINED
END 2012 – BEGINNING OF REPRESSIONS, LEFT FRONT LEADERS ARRESTED
SUMMER 2013 – MAYORAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN MOSCOW, NETWORK-TYPE COALITION
REFORMED INTO AUTHORITARIAN POPULIST MOVEMENT UNDER LEADERSHIP OF ALEXEY NAVALNY

10. NEW PROTEST VS
“TRADITIONAL” POLITICAL PARTIES
TRADITIONAL PARTIES ARE DEPENDENT ON ELECTION RESULTS, WHILE NEW PROTEST MOVEMENT
FUELS ELECTORAL SCEPTICISM
TURNOUT ON LOCAL ELECTIONS FELT TO 10-15%
CONSERVATIVES AND AUTHORITIES GAIN ADVANTAGE
TYPICAL VOTER TEND TO BE CONSERVATIVE AND LEFT-LEANING
CITY MOVEMENT WHICH PROTECTS PUSSY RIOT, LGBT RIGHTS, WITH LIBERTARIAN VIEWS AND RELATIVELY HIGH
INCOME OF PARTICIPANTS ALIENATE PEOPLE
SEVERAL COUNTER-STRATEGIES WERE SUCCESSFULLY IMPLEMENTED BY KREMLIN:
DUMA FACTIONS UNITED AROUND IDEAS WITH WIDE POPULAR APPEAL, BUT INACCEPTABLE FOR STREET OPPOSITION
(FOREIGN ADOPTION ACT, LIMITATION OF INTERNET FREEDOM, “GAY PROPAGANDA” ACT)
LEADERS OF THE OPPOSITION COMPROMISED WITH FAKED CRIMINAL CASES AND CHARGES OF CONSPIRACY IN FAVOR
OF FOREIGN NATIONS
MASSMEDIA HIGHLIGHTED AS MAIN DEMAND OF THE OPPOSITION CALL FOR POLITICAL REFORMS, WHICH IS LOW ON
PEOPLE’S PRIORITY LIST
NONE OF TRADITIONAL PARTIES WANT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH NEW PROTESTERS, WHICH
INCREASES GAP BETWEEN POLITICIANS AND OPINION LEADERS EVEN MORE

11. FORECAST
PROTEST TENDENCIES IN RUSSIA WILL GROW UNDER THE SURFACE, VISIBLE
ONLY IN MOSCOW
IN MOSCOW IN 2014 WILL BE VERY COMPETITIVE RACE FOR MOSCOW CITY
COUNCIL, BUT OPPOSITION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CLAIM MAJORITY OF SEATS,
BECAUSE OF INABILITY TO FORM COALITION
ECONOMIC STAGNATION AND GROWING BUDGET CRISIS CAN SPARKLE LOCAL
CONFLICTS AND INSPIRE SEPARATIST AND ANTI-MOSCOW TENDENCIES
AUTHORITIES WILL ATTEMPT TO INTEGRATE SOME OF VISIBLE PROTESTERS
INTO THE SYSTEM (LIKE IN NY MEMBERS OF OCCUPY MOVEMENT), BUT MOST
LIKELY TOO LATE
KEY SUCCESS FACTOR FOR THE OPPOSITION WILL BE POSSIBILITY TO CLAIM
VICTORIES ON REGIONAL AND MUNICIPAL LEVELS

12. CONCLUSIONS
option 1 – REVOLUTION
option 2 – step-by-step reform of the political system:
1.
Demonstration of good will and possibility of positive changes using
free and transparent elections: admission of new leaders to a real
executive power at the regional and municipal levels, support of
regional pluralism and real federalism within “one country – multiple
models” approach
2.
3.
Reform of traditional political parties
4.
Fostering entrepreneurship, international exchange and joint projects,
creation of safe ways of self-fulfillment of young generation
5.
«Peace treaty»: amnesty to political prisoners and no more power
plays and police actions on the streets, ensuring freedom of assembly
Support for network initiative of civil society: volunteers, anticorruption initiative; abandoning creation of fake “pocket” movements