This document discusses various aspects of climate change, including: 1) Global carbon dioxide emissions set a new record in 2012 and the CO2 level reached 400ppm in May 2013. 2) Costs of climate change are projected to be enormous, such as $1 trillion annually for drought costs in the US by 2100. 3) Impacts are already being seen around the world, including more extreme weather, rising sea levels threatening major coastal cities, and reduced agricultural productivity. 4) While efficiencies and alternative energies can help reduce emissions, complacency remains a major barrier to adequately addressing the climate crisis.

1. The Economics of Climate Change
and the ties that (double) bind us
By Nick van der Leek
www.nickvanderleek.com

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Dori: Here, Mr. Gandalf? Can't you do
something about this deluge?
Gandalf: It is raining, master dwarf.
And it will continue to rain until the
rain is done! If you wish to change
the weather of the world, you should
find yourself another wizard.

3. Climate Change Denial IsWinning
Trends suggest regional interest in climate
change comes exclusively from the
developing world with 8 of the top 10
countries by search volume from Africa.
These areas have the least resources to do
anything about it.

4. In 2010, 3.2 million people
died prematurely from
outdoor air pollution, mainly in Asia
smoke from indoor cooking fires kills about 2
million people a year — more than malaria and
tuberculosis combined. – WHO
stoves also a major source of black carbon
(soot) which is a major global warming culprit

5. A Few Facts...
The largest and most valuable company in the world is....
Saudi Aramco, worth up to $10 trillion by FT
The single largest consumer of energy in the world is
US Department of Defence: spend $13 billion on fuel alone
automobiles are the largest net contributor to climate change ...- Nadine Unger,
NASA
2nd burning household biofuels— wood and animal dung for home heating and cooking
3rd raising methane-producing cattle, contribute the third most.
84 million autos produced in 2012 = 230 136 per day

6. America’s Department of Defences Joint Operating Environment
report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when
there is serious economic upheaval.
"One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number
of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their
nations by ruthless conquest.‖
According to The Stern Review climate change is
the ―greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.‖

8. In 2012 total global emissions set a new record.
400ppm CO2 level reached in May 2013
China increased their emissions by 300 million tons, more than offsetting lower
emissions in the USA and Europe.
Japan’s carbon dioxide emissions increased 70-million tons after the Fukushima
nuclear accident in 2011.
China’s emissions slowed to lowest level in a decade.
America’s switch from coal to gas power generation reduced emissions by
200-million tons = mid-1990s.
Emissions in Europe declined 50-million tons because of the economic
slowdown, growth in renewables, and emissions caps on industrial and power
companies
Stats...now...

9. Stats going forward...
Drought is projected to cost Americans $1 trillion annually by 2100.
for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology avoided before 2020,
an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate
for the increased emissions. – IEA

10. $1?
$4?

11. 2 myths
1. CO2 is plant food
2. Volcanoes produce more CO2
than we do

12. •Higher CO2 levels can increase
•yields.
•yields for wheat and soybeans
increase by 30% or more
•yields for corn smaller response
(less than 10% increase).
•Caveat: temperature + crop's
optimal level or - water and nutrients
•Extreme events like droughts
and floods prevent crops from
growing altogether.
•2008, the Mississippi River flooded
just before the harvest period
•estimated loss of $8 billion
•Many weeds, pests and fungi thrive
under warmer, wetter climates.
•US farmers spent over
$11 billion in 2009 to fight weeds

13. Mississippi River: the chief conduit for
American grain
corn production: shifted 150 miles northwest
since 1950
Higher temperatures = $$$ barge transport.

14. southern Africa > less 30% of maize crop by 2030.
South Asia > regional staples rice, millet and maize could drop
10%

15. Global Breadbaskets…more or less?

18. Soil Quality

21. 1815

23. Worldwide carbon dioxide emissions
rose 1.4% to 31.6-billion tons
If $1.5-trillion in low-carbon investments are avoided before
2020, $5-trillion in additional investments would be required
thereafter to get back on track. For reference, global GDP is
$70 trillion (7.14%). - IEA
Per capita every man, woman and child contributes 4.5 tons of
CO2 per year. Driving an average car = 10 tons of CO2 per year.

24. IT INDUSTRY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
2 searches on a typical desktop computer
= boiling a kettle
20 google queries = driving 1km in a
modern car
Google handles about 3-5 billion searches
daily.
The global IT industry generates 2% of
global CO2 = 2X world's airlines
Cars are #1 driver of manmade
climate change
Currently 1 billion cars
1.7 billion by 2035
Ergo – make cars more ‘efficient’
>>>fossil fuel to electric?
CARS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is difficult
Analogous to an organism trying to lose weight but organism is
also heavily addicted, highly distracted and over-stressed

25. Volcanoes versus Cars

26. Google: "your own personal computer will use more
energy than Google uses..."

27. Key insights
exorbitant cost of EV’s due to the battery
―range anxiety‖
Nissan Leaf sold 1000 units during the first quarter of 2013.
for perspective, Ford’s F-Series pickups sell at a rate of over 2000 units per day
"For the next 10 years plug in hybrids
have a better chance to become a relevant volume
in comparison to just fully electric cars.” - Jochem Heizmann, head of Volkswagen in China
6.3 million hybrid electric vehicles have been sold globally between 1997 and March 2013
Sold 1.2 million in 2012, sales doubled.
The IEA expects total subsidies for renewable energy to rise
from $90 billion now to $240 billion in 2030.
Renewables, according to this IEA projection, will account for a third of
total electricity output by 2035 –
subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $523 billion in 2011
30% increase on 2010 and 6X value for renewables

28. By 2050 New #1:
electric power generation overtakes
road transportation as the biggest
promoter of warming.
In 2100 New #3:
The industrial sector jumps from the
smallest contribution in 2020
Household gadgets on standby
account for 10% of
electricity use…

30. crisis = efficiencies + adaptation + innovation
+ complacency = crisis

32. ―They think Sandy was a fluke, a storm
to end all storms, the kind they won't
ever see again.‖

33. ―Collectively, humanity has yawned and
decided to let the dangers mount.‖
– Martin Wolf, May 14, 2013

34. Statistical projections...
A 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature is associated
with a 10% loss of farming productivity.
According to the FAO, global food production
must rise 70 percent by 2050 as the Earth’s
population reaches 9.1 billion.

35. How Realistic Are Our Motoring Prospects?

37. How long before we’re building
100 million cars a year, 1 billion
per decade?

39. estimated accumulation
= 10 billion Hiroshima atomic bomb detonations
average of +- 2 detonations per second since the 1870s
Half of that energy has accumulated in the oceans since
1970,
at an average rate of about 4 atomic bomb detonations per
second
accelerated global
warming.

40. 2° Celsius = 44-billion tons of carbon
dioxide equivalent by 2020.
the world is on a path to average temperature rise of 3.6° Celsius - 5.3° Celsius. - IEA

42. Efficiencies can delay lock in by 5
years…necessary to ―buy time‖
2013…2014…2015…2016…2017…2020
Action is essential during this temporary window

43. "What is most troubling to me is that there appears to be a complacency
setting in about transitioning to a more sustainable energy economy.
Shales should be used as a bridge. But we are hearing
far too much euphoric talk about 100-200 years of natural gas.
Therefore no need to worry, it can be business as usual.
This is highly problematic in my opinion. We must globally transition away
from hydrocarbons."

44. 2015

45. Farmlands, Oceans and Food

48. June 2013……..According to
AccuWeather.com, Andrea
delivered the rainiest June 7 on
record for cities in North
Carolina to Massachusetts,
which experienced between 3
inches and slightly more than 6
inches of rain on Friday.
Two storms, Alberto and Beryl,
spun up this spring before the
official hurricane season start
date of June 1, an unusual
occurrence. ..
Beryl was the earliest 2nd-
named storm of any season
since record-keeping began
in 1950, according to
government records.

49. FOODCheap Carbohydrate crops (high fructose corn syrup)
=
obese (unhealthy) populations
=
Diabetes
Today 1 billion are overweight, 800 million malnourished
The rate of obesity is increasing approximately 1% per annum worldwide
the economic cost of looking after the world’s diabetic population
=
entire Australian health budget within 20 years

52. A 1 metre rise in sea levels will cause Hurricane Sandy type
inundations of New York City once every 3 years.
Rates of sea level rise are increasing three-to-four times faster
along portions of the U.S. Atlantic Coast than globally
Sea levels have risen 200mm (1/5th of a metre) since 1870
Currently increasing at
an average 3.2 mm p.a.

53. Japan’s capital, flanked by rivers to the east
and west, as well as running through it,
faces 33 trillion yen ($322 billion) in
damages should the banks break on the
Arakawa River that bisects Tokyo
= 5 X $60.2 billion aid package for Sandy

54. Overfishing, rising water temperatures and
ocean acidification create ideal environments
for jellyfish to thrive and multiply
They eat things higher up on the food
chain than themselves – things that are
bigger, faster and smarter than they are.
compete with whales - consume plankton
―biodiversity of the world's water will
eventually resemble that of the
Precambrian era, when oceans were ruled
by jellyfish and mammals and reptiles did
not exist.‖ – Lisa-Ann Gershwin

56. United Kingdom
The insurance industry is directly affected
by the risks of climate changes.
"Climate change is not a remote issue for
future generations to deal with; it is, in
various forms here already, impacting on
insurers' businesses now." - Association
of British Insurers
Weather related risks for households and
property were already increasing by 2–4%
per year due to the changing weather
conditions, and claims for storm and flood
damages in the UK had doubled to over £6
billion over the period from 1998–2003
compared to the previous five years.
United States
federal government's newly released
advisory flood maps ---14 feet on stilts at a
cost of $150,000 or face up to $30,000 a
year in flood insurance premiums.
a small cottage can cost $60,000 to
elevate, while a sprawling multilevel home
could run upwards of $250,000
Several months before Sandy hit, Congress
quietly passed the Biggert-Waters Flood
Insurance Reform Act, a bill that
authorized skyrocketing premium increases
for people in flood-prone communities.
It was a desperate attempt to keep the
program financially solvent after it was
nearly bankrupted by an onslaught of
claims from Hurricane Katrina, which
forced the federal government to
borrow about $17 billion from the
Treasury.

57. Bangladesh – population 161 million
In 1998 30 million made homeless by flooding
75% of Bangladesh is less than 10m above sea level
and 80% is flood plain

58. Floods submerged 17 million acres
(69,000 km2) of Pakistan's most fertile crop
land, killed 200,000 livestock and washed
away massive amounts of grain.
On 7 September 2010, the International
Labour Organization reported that the
floods had cost more than 5.3 million jobs
Forecasts estimated that the GDP growth
rate of 4% prior to the floods would turn to
−2% to −5% followed by several
additional years of below-trend growth. The loss of over 10 million head of
livestock along with the loss of other crops
would reduce agricultural production by
more than 15%.
Nationwide car sales were predicted to fall
as much as 25%. Milk supplies fell by 15%.

60. Mitigation, Impact on GDP

62. 4 climate policies – do not harm economic
growth.
1. improve energy efficiency in buildings,
industry and transport;
2. Limit the construction and use of inefficient
power plants;
3. halve methane emissions; and
4. partially phase out fossil fuel subsidies.

66. Reality
Check

67. the largest dry-cooled coal fired power station in the world
The largest contract ever awarded by SA’s state utility Eskom

74. The most costly factor in terms of combating climate
change –
our own complacency (and deniers)
We have to regain hearts and minds
Identify problems – offer solutions
“Messages about climate change and energy
that use fear- and threat-based tactics have
not mobilized responses. Let’s try a positive
tack instead. As the old sales saying goes: “Sell
the sizzle, not the steak.” - Chris Nelder, energy analyst, Marin
County, California

78. 11 March 2011…the largest nuclear disaster since the Chernobyl disaster of
1986 and only the second disaster (along with Chernobyl) to measure Level 7 on
the International Nuclear Event Scale

79. Energy from nuclear is far more than fossil
fuels
Radiation pollution can be significantly
greater too
Given the stakes – worth the risk?
Nuclear in some ways like premarital sex –
the risks of failure are huge, but a sensible
approach can largely mitigate those risks, if
not eliminate them entirely, and if
successful very enjoyable results.
Is our species mature enough to undertake
such risk?

80. The truth is that no combination of alternative fuels or
systems for using them will allow us to continue
running America, or even a substantial fraction of it, the
way we have been. We are not going to run Wal-Mart,
Walt Disney World, Monsanto, and the Interstate
Highway System on any combination of solar or wind
energy… tar sands, oil shale, methane hydrates, nuclear
power, thermal depolymerisation, ―zero-point‖ energy,
or anything else you can name. We will desperately use
many of these things in many ways, but we are likely to
be disappointed in what they can actually do for us.

81. Try this...

82. Not this...

83. Geo-engineering

85. Volcanoes to the rescue
“The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 gave us an opportunity to
learn many things about using sulphur-based aerosols to cool
the Earth. The aerosols it spewed into the stratosphere remained
there for an average of 1-2 years before falling down through the
troposphere.”

87. Stability is most efficient economic
model…
but the only constant is change
rewards for learning how to
manage things on a planetary
scale…

88. We’ve done it before…

90. Mastery of Our Planet >>>Mastery Of Mars and perhaps other planets

91. Thank you