Nuclear Power, Uranium Supply and Demand Issues - by Lakeland Resources Inc. Advisor Tom Drolet
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Lakeland Resources Inc. (TSXv: LK) (FSE: 6LL) advisor and nuclear and uranium market specialist Tom Drolet recently gave presentations to high net worth and institutional investor groups in Geneva and Zurich, Switzerland on behalf of the Company. His presentation titled “Nuclear Power, Uranium Supply and Demand Issues” highlights the macro condition and trends for the global uranium and nuclear energy sectors. The presentation slide deck will also be available on the lakelandresources.com website.
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Nuclear Power, Uranium Supply and Demand Issues - by Lakeland Resources Inc. Advisor Tom Drolet
- 1. Nuclear Power, Uranium Supply and Demand Issues Zurich: Nov 12, 2013 For Lakeland Resources, LK: TSXV By Thomas S. Drolet President, Drolet and Associates Energy Services, Inc. tdrolet@tsdenergy.com www.droletenergy.com 1-‐828-‐493-‐1523
- 2. PresentaTon’s BoVom Lines-‐ Nuclear Power Plants • Baseload Nuclear Power Plants are required to enable a stable, reliable electricity delivery system for the more electricity driven future I see for our world. • Growth Leaders will be China, India, Russia, The Middle East, with some addiTons in Europe, South America, USA, Europe and SE Asia (435-‐720 by 2030). • Low prices are slowing supply… however.. This is a period to start to bring on supply to meet future increasing demand • There is a need for new types of centralized medium to smaller designs of nuclear plants (safer, beVer, more efficient)—Gen 4.
- 3. World % Fuel Use by Source Percent' Oil$ Natural$Gas$ Coal$ Nuclear$ Renewables$ EE$and$Cons$
- 4. World Top 10 Countries in Nuclear GeneraTon
- 5. DistribuTon of World Nuclear Power Reactors
- 6. Number of Worldwide Nuclear Power Reactors
- 7. Issues to Consider re Announced Intent to Close Reactors • Japan—post Fukushima Dai-‐ichi (50 reactor swing) • Germany (17 reactor swing) • Switzerland (~4 reactor swing)
- 8. Main World Sources of Uranium
- 9. Mined World Uranium ProducTon by Country
- 10. Megatons to MegawaVs Program (MMP) • Agreement is from 19933-‐ to end of 2013 • Private Industry players: Nukem, Areva, Cameco • It involved 25,000 Russian Warheads (500 Tonnes of HEU-‐ that is an average of 20 kg / warhead). • Most used in USA Commercial Reactors • Injected 23 M lbs of U3O8 into the market. • 6 Million stayed in Russia • 17 M lbs between Nukem, Cameco and Areva
- 11. Uranium Sources and Grades SOURCE • • • • • • • • CONCENTRATION Very high-‐grade ore 20% U 200,000 ppm U High-‐grade ore 2% U 20,000 ppm U Low-‐grade ore 0.1% U 1,000 ppm U Very low-‐grade ore 0.01% U 100 ppm U Granite 4-‐5 ppm U Sedimentary rock 2 ppm U Earth's conTnental crust (avg) 2.8 ppm U Seawater 0.003 ppm U
- 12. PresentaTon’s BoVom Lines Uranium Supply and Demand • DRIVER ISSUES: High U concentra/ons, reasonable extrac/on costs, U from Stable Countries of the World: all these issues will gradually see rising prices and increasing Partnership Opportuni/es for Canadian companies. • Uranium ProducTon Growth Regions 1. Canada-‐Athabasca– 2. 3. 4. 5. USA—western basins (ISR) Australia ArgenKna Some parts of Africa, Mongolia
- 13. Total World Commercial Reactor Demand for Uranium as U3O8 in 2013 • Approximately 78,000 tonnes or • 170 + Million lbs
- 14. Nuclear Power Reactors under ConstrucTon 2012 OperaTon Country • • • • • • • • • • • • • • REACTOR Type MWe (net) 2012 India, NPCI Kaiga 4 PHWR 202 2012 Iran, AEOI Bushehr 1 PWR 950 2012 Russia, Kalinin 4 PWR 950 2012 Korea, KHNP Shin Kori 2 PWR 1000 2012 Korea, KHNP Shin Wolsong 1 PWR 1000 2012 Canada, Bruce Pwr Bruce A1 PHWR 769 2012 Canada, Bruce Pwr Bruce A2 PHWR 769 2012 Canada, NB Power Point Lepreau 1 PHWR 635 2012 ArgenTna, CNEA Atucha 2 PHWR 692 2012 India, NPCIL Kudankulam 1 PWR 950 2012 India, NPCIL Kudankulam 2 PWR 950 2012 China, CNNC Qinshan phase II-‐4 PWR 650 2012 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 1 PW 1080 2012 China, CGNPC Ningde 1 PWR 1080
- 15. Nuclear Power Reactors under ConstrucTon 2013 • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2013 Slovakia, SE Mochovce 3 PWR 440 2013 Korea, KHNP Shin Wolsong 2 PWR 1000 2013 Korea, KHNP Shin-‐Kori 3 PWR 1350 2013 USA, TVA WaXs Bar 2 PWR 1180 2013 Russia, Rosenergoatom Leningrad II-‐1 PWR 1070 2013 China, CNNC Sanmen 1 PWR 1250 2013 China, CGNPC Ningde 2 PWR 1080 2013 China, CGNPC Yangjiang 1 PWR 1080 2013 China, CGNPC Taishan 1 PWR 1700 2013 China, CNNC Fangjiashan 1 PWR 1080 2013 China, CNNC Fuqing 1 PWR 1080 2013 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 2 PWR 1080 2013 Slovakia, SE Mochovce 4 PWR 440
- 16. Nuclear Power Reactors under ConstrucTon 2014 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2014 Finland, TVO Olkilouto 3 2014 Russia, Rosenergoatom Vilyuchinsk 2014 Russia, Rosenergoatom Novovoronezh II-‐1 2014 Taiwan Power Lungmen 1 2014 Japan, Chugoku Shimane 3 2014 China, CNNC Sanmen 2 2014 China, CPI Haiyang 1 2014 China, CGNPC Ningde 3 2014 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 3 2014 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 4 2014 China, CGNPC Yangjiang 2 2014 China, CGNPC Taishan 2 2014 China, CNNC Fangjiashan 2 2014 China, CNNC Fuqing 2 2014 China, CNNC Changjiang 1 2014 Korea, KHNP Shin-‐Kori 4 2014? Japan, EPDC/J Power Ohma 1 2014 Russia, Rosenergoatom Rostov 3 2014 Russia, Rosenergoatom Beloyarsk 4 PWR PWR x 2 PWR ABWR ABWR PWR PWR PWR PWR PWR PWR PWR PWR PWR PWR PWR ABWR PWR FNR 1600 70 1070 1300 1375 1250 1250 1080 1080 1080 1080 1700 1080 1080 650 1350 1350 1070 750
- 17. Nuclear Power Reactors under ConstrucTon 2015 • • • • • • • • • • 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 Taiwan Power Lungmen 2 ABWR 1300 China, CGNPC Yangjiang 3 PWR 1080 China, CPI Haiyang 2 PWR 1250 China, CGNPC Ningde 4 PWR 1080 China, CGNPC Fangchenggang 1 PWR 1080 China, CNNC Changjiang 2 PWR 650 China, CNNC Hongshiding 1 PWR 1080 China, CNNC Fuqing 3 PWR 1080 China, Huaneng Shidaowan HTR 20 India, NPCIL Kakrapar 3 PHWR 640
- 18. Nuclear Power Reactors under ConstrucTon 2016 2016 France, EdF Flamanville 3 PWR 1600 2016 Korea, KHNP Shin-‐Ulchin 1 PWR 1350 2016 Romania, SNN Cernavoda 3 PHWR 655 2016 Russia, Rosenergoatom Novovoronezh II-‐2 PWR 1070 2016 Russia, Rosenergoatom Leningrad II-‐2 PWR 1200 2016 Russia, Rosenergoatom Rostov 4 PWR 1200 2016 Ukraine, Energoatom Khmelnitsky 3 PWR 1000 2016 India, NPCIL Kakrapar 4 PHWR 640 2016 India, NPCIL Rajasthan 7 PHWR 640 2016 China, CGNPC Yangjiang 4 PWR 1080 2015 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 5 PWR 1080 2016 Pakistan, PAEC Chashma 3 PWR 300 • 2016 China, several others • • • • • • • • • •
- 19. Nuclear Power Reactors under ConstrucTon 2017 • 2017 Russia, Rosenergoatom BalKc 1 PWR 1200 • 2017 Russia, Rosenergoatom Len II-‐3 PWR 1200 • 2017 Ukraine, Energoatom Khmelnitsky 4 PWR 1000 • 2017 India, NPCIL Rajasthan 8 PHWR 640 • 2017 Korea, KHNP Shin-‐Ulchin 2 PWR 1350 • 2017 Romania, SNN Cernavoda 4 PHWR 655 • 2017 Japan, JAPC Tsuruga 3 APWR 1538 • 2017 Pakistan, PAEC Chashma 4 PWR 300 • 2017 Bulgaria, NEK Belene 1 PWR 1000 • 2017 China, CNNC Taohuajiang 1 PWR 1250 • 2017 China, several others
- 20. Chernobyl, Ukraine Chernobyl…. April 26, 1986. • A series of Operator errors , missed communicaKons and badly designed RBMK reactor system combine to cause a violent super heated steam explosion at the Chernobyl No. 4 nuclear power plant about 180 miles north of Kiev in the former Soviet Union. • The reactor had an inadequate containment building and very large amounts of radiaKon escaped.
- 21. Three Mile Island Unit 2 1979 Three Mile Island March 28, 1979. • The worst accident in U.S. commercial reactor history occurs at the TMI nuclear power staKon near Harrisburg, PA . The accident is caused by a combinaKon of mechanical malfuncKon and human error. • An open pressure relief valve permiXed coolant water to escape from the primary system, and was the principal mechanical cause of the lose of coolant and parKal fuel meltdown crisis that followed..
- 22. Japan’s Nuclear Energy Plants March 2011
- 23. Fukushima Dai-‐ichi Mark 1 BWR
- 24. Small Modular Reactor Design by B&W
- 25. One More BoVom Line Alternate Fuel Cycle Development Molten Salt Reactors(MSR) Thorium?—not necessarily
- 26. BoVom Line on Uranium Supply and Demand (and Prices) • We need more mine producKon—in fact, a robust diversified series of new mined uranium producKon. • Uranium demand Partners will seek out Canadian listed companies and in Australia, ArgenKna and parts of Africa. • Prices will rise very moderately for the 2014 year as Japan sorts itself out and China, India and others ramp up. • Prices for Uranium will then ramp up post start 2015 Good Canadian picks in the Uranium space LK: TSXV, Cameco
- 27. End This presentaTon will be available on www.droletenergy.com By Sunday 17 November 2013 And through Lakeland Resources, LK:TSXV Thomas S. Drolet tdrolet@tsdenergy.com 1-‐828-‐493-‐1523