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The Problem              Confidential
While many international media tend to focus on China’s economic success story, locally         another story is unfolding...
China’s Changing Demographics35.0%                   % of Population Over 60 Years Old in China                           ...
Shanghai, China’s Greyest City              In 2009, 22.55% of Shanghai’s 14 million full              time residents were...
More importantly, the size of Shanghai’s     80+ demographic is growing.A demographic whose medical conditions begin to   ...
Shanghai, China’s Greyest City  560,000 Shanghai residents are over the age of 80  Red Zone (Over 20% of residents over 80...
To address the growing needs of this        growing segment of thepopulation, Shanghai has developed the           90 – 7 ...
Shanghai’s Plan90% should stay with their families7% will live in own house with access to community3% will stay in elderl...
The Policy GapsThe Plan: 90% should stay with their familiesThe Reality: Fewer than 80% elderly live with families• Urbani...
The Policy GapsThe Plan: 7% should stay in their homesThe Reality: Over 20% are staying within own homes• Pensioners are u...
The Policy GapsThe Plan: 3% should stay in elderly care facilitiesThe Reality: Shanghai currently has capacity for 1.5%• C...
“In the end, environmental, social and economic sustainabilitycannot be separated. A sustainable planet must include asust...
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Elderly in China - A Growing Problem and Opportunity

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In this presentation, I speak about the problem that China is facing with managing the growing urban elderly population.

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Elderly in China - A Growing Problem and Opportunity

  1. 1. The Problem Confidential
  2. 2. While many international media tend to focus on China’s economic success story, locally another story is unfolding China is aging, and in 40 years its demographic shift will peak Confidential
  3. 3. China’s Changing Demographics35.0% % of Population Over 60 Years Old in China Working Age Adults (15-59) to Elderly (60 and over) 31.1% 7.0 6.5 6.1 28.7%30.0% 27.5% 6.0 26.4% 5.425.0% 23.4% 5.0 4.4 19.6%20.0% 3.8 16.7% 4.0 14.8% 3.115.0% 12.3% 3.0 2.5 10.0% 10.8% 2.1 2.0 1.810.0% 2.0 1.6 5.0% 1.0 0.0% 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • In 2010, 21% of Shanghai’s 18 million full • In 2010, there were 6.5 persons of working time residents were over the age of 60 age for every person over the age of 60 • Multiple districts have more then 25% • Many city governments, particularly Shanghai, • 20m RMB was spent to launch 200 meal are already unable to meet the needs of this centers in 2010 rising demographic • By 2050, China will have more than 440 • By 2050, for every person over the age of million people older than 60, 31% of the 60, there will be 1.6 persons of working age population • Increasing demand for elderly social services and financial strains on the social welfare system Confidential
  4. 4. Shanghai, China’s Greyest City In 2009, 22.55% of Shanghai’s 14 million full time residents were over the age of 60 • Primary result of policy shift in 1979 limiting families to one child • Secondary factors are China’s “hukou” system which limits family migration. Only young, working age, residents are able to move residency easily Shanghai’s Oldest Districts include m over 60 1. Hong Kou has 190,000 (24.2%) over age of 60 1 2. Jing An has 80,000 (25.9%) over age of 60 3. Huangpu has 140,000 (23.3%) over the age of 60 3 4. Luwan has 78,000 (25.5%) over the age of 602 4 Confidential
  5. 5. More importantly, the size of Shanghai’s 80+ demographic is growing.A demographic whose medical conditions begin to grow in number and severity, requiring more resources from the State. Confidential
  6. 6. Shanghai, China’s Greyest City 560,000 Shanghai residents are over the age of 80 Red Zone (Over 20% of residents over 80) 1. Hong Kou - 38,900 (20.3%) 2. Jing An – 17,700 (22.1%) 3. Huangpu - 32,100 (22.9%) 4. Luwan - 17,600 (22.4%) Orange Zone: (18% - 20% of residents over 80) 1. Yangpu - 46,000 (18.9%) 2. Putuo – 39,400 (19.4%) 3. Zhabei – 31,000 (19.8%) 4. Changning – 26,500 (19.1%) 5. Xuhui – 41,000 (18.9%) Yellow Zone: (Under 18% of residents over 80) 1. Pudong- 98,900 (17%) 2. Minhang – 32,300 (16%) Confidential
  7. 7. To address the growing needs of this growing segment of thepopulation, Shanghai has developed the 90 – 7 – 3 plan Confidential
  8. 8. Shanghai’s Plan90% should stay with their families7% will live in own house with access to community3% will stay in elderly care facilities Confidential
  9. 9. The Policy GapsThe Plan: 90% should stay with their familiesThe Reality: Fewer than 80% elderly live with families• Urbanization has split family units across geographic boundaries within China, and abroad• Limited space / inflated pricing of modern apartments prevents the purchase large family housing units for husband, wife, child, and grandparents (up to 4)• Parents are not willing to intrude upon their children’s livesThe Gap:• More than 20% of Shanghai elderly are at risk of living unsupported, which will require a higher level of commitment from street committees, community centers, and elderly care homes. Confidential
  10. 10. The Policy GapsThe Plan: 7% should stay in their homesThe Reality: Over 20% are staying within own homes• Pensioners are unwilling to move from allocated housing• Gen X and Y children are far more likely to live in cities distant from parents• Children are buying housing that is separate, but nearbyThe Gap:• As the 1940s generation ages, and 20+% of elderly are living unassisted, the government will be forced to look towards local street committees, community centers, and elderly care facilities to provide extensions of service Confidential
  11. 11. The Policy GapsThe Plan: 3% should stay in elderly care facilitiesThe Reality: Shanghai currently has capacity for 1.5%• Currently, there are 500-600 elderly care centers in service, that service three demographics: Active living, those with limited mobility, and end of life• Rent ranges between 1000RMB – 3000RMB per month (housing, food, medical visits, and pharmaceuticals included)• Plans for building the additional capacity have been made, but until finished, beds will be limited.The Gap:• Without a full 3% capacity to serve the aging, more elderly will be forced to stay within current housing, which will again force government agencies to look towards local street committees, community centers, and elderly care facilities to provide extensions of service Confidential
  12. 12. “In the end, environmental, social and economic sustainabilitycannot be separated. A sustainable planet must include asustainable human civilization – resilient human systems thatrespect the complicated relationships among poverty, humanrights, economic development, environmental health, andhuman success”- Institute for the Future, 2008Richard BrubakerFounder and Managing Director, Collective ResponsibilityAdjunct Professor, Sustainability and Responsible Leadership, CEIBSrich@collectiveresponsibility.org@chinacsr Confidential

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