CCC_EbA

Ecosystem-based Approaches to
Climate Change Adaptation:
Prof Nathalie Seddon, University of Oxford / International Institute for Environment and Development!
a win-win formula for sustainable development
in a warming world?

Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)!
Overview
!  What is EbA? Does it work? How much does it cost?
!  Total EconomicValue of EbA
!  EbA in international agreements (UNFCCC)
!  Obstacles to implementation: science and silos
!  Research and policy pointers
!  Opportunities for EbA in the UK?

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Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! 3456!78&,.&9$:!"&,!;(:&:<+!'+,$-.!/012!

How adapt?
Grey Hybrid Green (EbA)

What is EbA?
!  “The use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to help
people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change”
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What is EbA?
!  “Sustainable management, conservation and restoration
of ecosystems, as part of an overall adaptation strategy
that takes into account the multiple social, economic and
cultural co-benefits for local communities” (CBD 2010)
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Role of ecosystems in adaptation
!  Wetlands/catchment ecosystems for flood protection
!  Coastal ecosystems for coastline protection
!  Montane ecosystems to prevent landslides
!  Agroforestry to improve yield during drought

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Does EbA work?
Coastal ecosystems for coastline protection
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Wetland ecosystems for fluvial flood protection

Schematic of relative effects of
catchment-scale interventions on flood
peaks in the UK
Simon J. Dadson et al. Proc. R. Soc. A 2017;473:20160706
© 2017 The Authors.
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Thresholds, limits, timescale
!  Wetlands prevent
flooding up to certain
limits
!  Coastal ecosystems
can dissipate energy of
infrequent storms
!  EbA efficacy influenced
by ecosystem
resilience, which is
impaired by CC and
other stressors

Ecosystem resilience – interactions with other stressors
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Limits of current EbA science
!  Slow-onset impacts of climate change
!  Need more research at nexus of health, climate, ecosystems
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Is EbA effective?Yes, but…
!  Geographical / ecosystem biases
!  Uncertainties around thresholds, limits, timeframes
!  Need to take impacts of CC on resilience into account
!  Limited evidence for effectiveness for slow-onset impacts

EbA can be much cheaper than engineering solutions
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!Catskill–Delaware watershed
protection (US$150M) vs.
water filtration plant (US$300M/yr)
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Value of regulating services provided by EbA
!  Protection from waves / storm surges and coastal stabilization by
mangroves/reefs:
!  India and Thailand: $10,000 /ha/yr
!  Indonesia: $200k / km
!  Belize: $250M/yr (25% GDP)
!  Sri Lanka: $800k/ha/yr
!  USA: 1$ invested in coastal EbA saves taxpayer $4 in avoided costs
!  Vietnam: 12k ha mangrove restoration saved $7.3M/yr in dyke
maintenance.
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EbA is affordable
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EbA affordable
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Comparing adaptation approaches
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Comparing adaptation approaches
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Total EconomicValue of adaptation
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Total EconomicValue of adaptation
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TEV of mangroves
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EbA and the
adaptation finance gap
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Does EbA work?
!  Lots of evidence that intact natural
ecosystems can reduce direct
impacts of climate change at low
cost, whilst providing broad range
of very valuable ecosystem services

EbA: multiple co-benefits
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Role of EbA in UNFCCC
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Uptake of EbA by UNFCCC
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Role of EbA in the Paris Agreement
!  Article 7.1:“enhancing adaptive
capacity, strengthening resilience and
reducing vulnerability to climate
change…”
!  Article 4.1: “…on the basis of
equity, and in the context of
sustainable development and efforts
to eradicate poverty”
!  Ratifying countries obliged to submit
new NDCs every 5 years, & report
on progress towards the targets set
out in the agreement

iNDCs - adaptation
!  85% iNDCs have adaptation component
!  30% link mitigation and adaptation
!  88% refer to biodiversity and/or ecosystems (as context and
method; highest frequency in lower-middle income tropical and
subtropical countries)
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iNDCs:Why adapt?
!  64%: loss of biodiversity /ecosystem degradation
!  52%:“biodiversity” is a distinct sector at risk
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iNDCs: Main approaches to adaptation
!  1st: conservation/restoration (73%)
!  2nd: agroforestry (69%)
!  5th: grey infrastructure (46%)
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iNDCs: Main approaches to adaptation
!  Catchment forests and coastal
ecosystems
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iNDCs: Role of EbA
!  24 countries explicitly mention EbA
!  Mexico, Seychelles, Lao PDR,Vanuatu, Costa
Rica, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Madagascar, Nepal and
Vietnam
!  Mexico: ranks EbA alongside adaptation for social
sector and adaptation of strategic infrastructure
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INDCs: Role of EbA
!  Vietnam will “implement EbA through the development of
ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation, with a
focus on the preservation of genetic resources, species at
risk of extinction, and important ecosystems”

iNDCs: Role of EbA
!  Vanuatu is “developing advocacy and educational programs
for all stakeholders at all levels around the value of
ecosystem-based adaptation”

iNDCs: ecosystem orientated vision
!  Mongolia will increase “adaptive capacity to overcome
negative impacts of climate change, and to strengthen
resilience of ecosystem and socio-economic sectors”
!  Bolivia “prioritizes the scope of holistic development in
harmony with nature and as [a] structural solution to the
global climate crisis”
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Global consensus on fundamental role of ecosystems
!  110 nations are engaged in EbA-activities
!  Africa: 22 implicit
!  Latin America: 5 explicit, 12 implicit
!  Asia: 5 explicit, 11 implicit
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EbA targets: measurable and meaningful?
!  13 iNDCs with EbA components had +/- measurable targets:
!  restoration of 35,000 hectares of primary forest and
mangroves by 2020 (Madagascar)
!  zero deforestation by the year 2030 (Mexico)
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!  Most targets are broad, e.g.
!  “protect natural heritage, biodiversity, forestry and fishery
resources, through an ecosystem-based adaptation
approach” (Morocco)
!  “enhance livelihood approach for integrating natural resources
management and preservation of sensitive
ecosystems” (Yemen)
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!  Only 23% nations with EbA components refer to involvement of
local communities (on which sustainability depends)
!  EbA targets rarely based on science (low resilience)

EbA financing and cross-sectoral integration
!  Only 28% of plans are costed (limits capacity to access climate
finance) with no consideration of ecosystem services
!  Most lack explicit links with national adaptation and biodiversity
plans - incoherent mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity policy

Policy pointers
!  Governments and key non-state actors should be encouraged
formally recognize EbA as a potentially highly cost-
effective adaptation approach with the most co-benefits to
deliver against international agreements
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Policy pointers
"  Parties should be encouraged to:
1)  research and monitor mitigation, adaptation and other benefits of
EbA and build strong evidence for mainstreaming EbA into
national plans
2)  establish measurable and meaningful EbA targets in national plans,
and report on progress towards these in the iNDCs
3)  integrate ecosystem service valuation tools into adaptation
planning, to support development of properly costed plans
4)  promote communication across all sectors involved in adaptation
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Policy pointers
"  Those implementing EbA projects should share learning on what
makes EbA ecologically, socially and economically effective
"  Leading platforms supporting mitigation strategies should highlight
and promote adaptation co-benefits
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Opportunities for of EbA in the UK?

Opportunities for of EbA in the UK?
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Status of EbA in the UK?
!  Rarely mentioned by those reporting to DEFRA on the NAP
!  Lots of implicit EbA (natural flood management, Envt.Agency)
!  Few explicit EbA projects (managed realignment)
!  Alkborough (Humber estuary), Wallasea Island (Essex)
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UK NAP themes
!  Built environment
!  Infrastructure
!  Healthy and resilient communities
!  Agriculture and forestry
!  Natural environment
!  Business
!  Local government
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Opportunities for EBA in the UK

Opportunities for EBA in the UK
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Conclusions
!  Properly implemented science-based EbA effective way of plugging
the “adaptation gap” whilst helping to meet many SDGs
!  High level pledges favour EbA, but weak targets and finances
!  Consolidated science and practitioner learning needed to enhance
design, implementation and evaluation of EbA, and generate
meaningful targets
!  Costed adaptation plans that account for natural capital and
ecosystem services
!  Advocacy to promote uptake and stimulate cross-sectoral
engagement on EbA

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