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CCC_EbA

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Seminar given the the UK Climate Change Committee on ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change

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CCC_EbA

  1. 1. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation: Prof Nathalie Seddon, University of Oxford / International Institute for Environment and Development! a win-win formula for sustainable development in a warming world?
  2. 2. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Overview !  What is EbA? Does it work? How much does it cost? !  Total EconomicValue of EbA !  EbA in international agreements (UNFCCC) !  Obstacles to implementation: science and silos !  Research and policy pointers !  Opportunities for EbA in the UK?
  3. 3. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! !"#$%&'()*+,%-.%'/'0-%-.%-1,%,2,3-4%.&%3)(5'-,% 31'67,%(4%-1,%4(67),%7+,'-,4-%7).8')%+(49% "#$%&#!'()*)!'+,$-.!/012!
  4. 4. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! 3456!78&,.&9$:!"&,!;(:&:<+!'+,$-.!/012!
  5. 5. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! How adapt? Grey Hybrid Green (EbA)
  6. 6. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! What is EbA? !  “The use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change” !"#$"%&$'&%()*(%+"(,)-."-/)-()-(0')1)2'#&1( 3'."$4'%5(67889:;(,)--"#/-2(0')<'."$4'%5(&-<( ,1'=&%"(,+&-2"(>'/2&/)-(&-<(?<&@%&/)-A(B"@)$%( )*(%+"(!"#)-<(?<(C)#(D"#+-'#&1(EF@"$%(G$)H@()-( 0')<'."$4'%5(&-<(,1'=&%"(,+&-2";(
  7. 7. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! What is EbA? !  “Sustainable management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems, as part of an overall adaptation strategy that takes into account the multiple social, economic and cultural co-benefits for local communities” (CBD 2010) :,)'-,/%3.63,0-4=!>)$?!+:@(:++-(:@AB!>+<$C8()&).+-!-()*! -+8D<9$:A!E5<$CF''GB!>:&.D-+C%&)+8!8+H+:<+)AI!>@-++:! (:H-&).-D<.D-+AI!><$JJD:(.KC%&)+8!&8&,.&9$:AA!EL%7G!
  8. 8. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Role of ecosystems in adaptation !  Wetlands/catchment ecosystems for flood protection !  Coastal ecosystems for coastline protection !  Montane ecosystems to prevent landslides !  Agroforestry to improve yield during drought
  9. 9. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! 5<$)K).+JC%&)+8!78&,.&9$:!<$:<+,.D&#(M+8!(:! .N+!F-(O(:@!;$-<+)C6-+))D-+)CP.&.+CQJ,&<.)C'+),$:)+)! EF6PQ'G!H-&J+R$-*! RRRS<#(J&.+<N&:@+SO:!
  10. 10. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! 5%7! T(##+::(DJ!5<$)K).+J!7))+))J+:.!E/00UG!
  11. 11. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Does EbA work? Coastal ecosystems for coastline protection T<QO$-!+.!&#!/01VI!P,&#8(:@!+.!&#!/01WI!X$O+#$<*!+.!&#!/01UI!'+:&D#8!+.!&#!/012I!+.<!! QJ&@+=!3456!E/01WG!!QJ,$-.&:<+!$H!J&:@-$O+)!.$!,+$,#+=!&!<&##!.$!&<9$:!
  12. 12. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Wetland ecosystems for fluvial flood protection
  13. 13. Schematic of relative effects of catchment-scale interventions on flood peaks in the UK Simon J. Dadson et al. Proc. R. Soc. A 2017;473:20160706 © 2017 The Authors. YY!
  14. 14. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Thresholds, limits, timescale !  Wetlands prevent flooding up to certain limits !  Coastal ecosystems can dissipate energy of infrequent storms !  EbA efficacy influenced by ecosystem resilience, which is impaired by CC and other stressors
  15. 15. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Ecosystem resilience – interactions with other stressors ;$-+).!8(+%&<*!-+#&.+8!.$!<#(J&.+!).-+))! 7##+:!+.!&#!E/00ZG![($)<(+:<+!
  16. 16. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! 5%7!++<9O+I!%D.! :++8!.$!.&*+! +<$)K).+J!-+)(#(+:<+! (:.$!&<<$D:.!
  17. 17. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Limits of current EbA science !  Slow-onset impacts of climate change !  Need more research at nexus of health, climate, ecosystems ]&^)!+.!&#!E/01UG!X&:<+.!L$JJ())($:!
  18. 18. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Is EbA effective?Yes, but… !  Geographical / ecosystem biases !  Uncertainties around thresholds, limits, timeframes !  Need to take impacts of CC on resilience into account !  Limited evidence for effectiveness for slow-onset impacts
  19. 19. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA can be much cheaper than engineering solutions ;*+94%'6/%<'(3.4%=4)'6/4%% -++H!,-$.+<9$:!E3P_12SZTG!!O)S! #+O++)I!)+&!R&##)!E3P_//VT`K-G!! !Catskill–Delaware watershed protection (US$150M) vs. water filtration plant (US$300M/yr) 78&,.+8!H-$J!a$:+)!+.!&#!E/01/G!4&.D-+!L#(J&.+!LN&:@+! >'(?,%&'+5,+4@%>')'A(% (:.+-<-$,,(:@!4Cbc(:@!.-++!E_G!O)S! (:$-@&:(<!H+-9#(M+-)!3P_1/T`K-!
  20. 20. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Value of regulating services provided by EbA !  Protection from waves / storm surges and coastal stabilization by mangroves/reefs: !  India and Thailand: $10,000 /ha/yr !  Indonesia: $200k / km !  Belize: $250M/yr (25% GDP) !  Sri Lanka: $800k/ha/yr !  USA: 1$ invested in coastal EbA saves taxpayer $4 in avoided costs !  Vietnam: 12k ha mangrove restoration saved $7.3M/yr in dyke maintenance. '+O(+R+8!(:!H-$J!5J+-.$:!+.!&#!E/012G!5<$CF''!LL7!
  21. 21. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA is affordable '$K&#!P$<(+.K!'+,$-.!E/01WG!'+)(#(+:<+!.$!+c.-+J+!R+&.N+-!
  22. 22. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA affordable '$K&#!P$<(+.K!'+,$-.!E/01WG!'+)(#(+:<+!.$!+c.-+J+!R+&.N+-!
  23. 23. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Comparing adaptation approaches 5:@(:++-+8! 5%7! L$).!dd! 5+<9O+:+))! 9J+!
  24. 24. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Comparing adaptation approaches 5:@(:++-+8! eK%-(8! 5%7! L$).!dd! 5+<9O+:+))!
  25. 25. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Total EconomicValue of adaptation dd! 5+<9O+:+))! 5%7! 7::D&#!O&#D+!$H!+<$)K).+J!)+-O(<+)!H$-!.N+!@#$%&#! +<$:$JK!()!+)9J&.+8!&.!f100!.-(##($:!3P_! T57!E/00UGI!L$:).&:M&!+.!&#!E/01WG!"L[!!
  26. 26. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Total EconomicValue of adaptation 5:@(:++-+8! eK%-(8! 5%7! dd! 5<$)K).+J!)+-O(<+!,-$O()($:! E(:<#D8(:@!g&8&,.&9$:!)+-O(<+)h! X$).!:&.D-&#!<&,(.&#!'! L! 6! P!
  27. 27. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! QJ&@+=!3456!E/01WG!!QJ,$-.&:<+!$H!J&:@-$O+)!.$!,+$,#+=!&!<&##!.$!&<9$:!
  28. 28. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! 4+R!.$$#)!.$!+O&#D&.+!&8&,.&9$:!$,9$:)!E+S@S!Q:i5PjI!7'Q5PG! U02!_`N&! k2/!_`N&!/W/1!_`N&!12k!_`N&! /1k!_`N&! /2U!_`N&! 5J+-.$:!+.!&#!E/01WG!(L$&).! YYY!
  29. 29. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! TEV of mangroves • !!T&:@-$O+!8+H$-+).&9$:!N&)!<$).! _V/T!(:!#$).!5PI!RN(#).!.N+!)N-(J,! H&-J)!+.<!.N+K!R+-+!-+,#&<+8!R(.N! @+:+-&.+8!N&#H!.N()!&J$D:.! 5J+-.$:!+.!&#!E/01WG!(L$&).!
  30. 30. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA and the adaptation finance gap 3456!E/012G!78&,.&9$:!;(:&:<+!"&,!-+,$-.! 5%7!
  31. 31. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Does EbA work? !  Lots of evidence that intact natural ecosystems can reduce direct impacts of climate change at low cost, whilst providing broad range of very valuable ecosystem services
  32. 32. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA: multiple co-benefits 5%7! L&-%$:! )+lD+).-&9$:! '+8D<+)! 8()&).+-!-()*!! 6-$.+<.)! +<$)K).+J)! L$J%&.)! 8+)+-9b<&9$:! PD).&(:&%(#(.K! &<-$))!JD#9,#+! )+<.$-)! L$:)+-O+)! %($8(O+-)(.K!
  33. 33. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Role of EbA in UNFCCC 5%7! 34;LLL! 34QPF'! '&J)&-! 34LLF! BCD4% L[F!
  34. 34. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Uptake of EbA by UNFCCC Y! J$).!&:&#K)+)!&:8!8+%&.+)!N&O+! H$<D)+8!$:!J(9@&9$:I!RN&.! &%$D.!&8&,.&9$:Y! 1WV`1Zk!N&O+!-&9b+8!
  35. 35. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Role of EbA in the Paris Agreement !  Article 7.1:“enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change…” !  Article 4.1: “…on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty” !  Ratifying countries obliged to submit new NDCs every 5 years, & report on progress towards the targets set out in the agreement
  36. 36. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! iNDCs - adaptation !  85% iNDCs have adaptation component !  30% link mitigation and adaptation !  88% refer to biodiversity and/or ecosystems (as context and method; highest frequency in lower-middle income tropical and subtropical countries) P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  37. 37. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! iNDCs:Why adapt? !  64%: loss of biodiversity /ecosystem degradation !  52%:“biodiversity” is a distinct sector at risk P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  38. 38. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! iNDCs: Main approaches to adaptation !  1st: conservation/restoration (73%) !  2nd: agroforestry (69%) !  5th: grey infrastructure (46%) C10! 10! V0! U0! k0! Z0! 110! "-+K!(:H-&).-D<.D-+! Q:)9.D9$:&#!<&,&<(.K!%D(#8(:@! 7@-$H$-+).-K! '+)+&-<N!`!J$:(.$-(:@! L$:)+-O&9$:!`!-+).$-&9$:!
  39. 39. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! iNDCs: Main approaches to adaptation !  Catchment forests and coastal ecosystems C10! 10! V0! U0! k0! Z0! 110! "-+K!(:H-&).-D<.D-+! Q:)9.D9$:&#!<&,&<(.K!%D(#8(:@! 7@-$H$-+).-K! '+)+&-<N!`!J$:(.$-(:@! L$:)+-O&9$:!`!-+).$-&9$:!
  40. 40. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! iNDCs: Role of EbA !  24 countries explicitly mention EbA !  Mexico, Seychelles, Lao PDR,Vanuatu, Costa Rica, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Madagascar, Nepal and Vietnam !  Mexico: ranks EbA alongside adaptation for social sector and adaptation of strategic infrastructure m!!a!e$#8+:!`!;;Q!!! P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  41. 41. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! INDCs: Role of EbA !  Vietnam will “implement EbA through the development of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation, with a focus on the preservation of genetic resources, species at risk of extinction, and important ecosystems”
  42. 42. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! iNDCs: Role of EbA !  Vanuatu is “developing advocacy and educational programs for all stakeholders at all levels around the value of ecosystem-based adaptation”
  43. 43. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! iNDCs: ecosystem orientated vision !  Mongolia will increase “adaptive capacity to overcome negative impacts of climate change, and to strengthen resilience of ecosystem and socio-economic sectors” !  Bolivia “prioritizes the scope of holistic development in harmony with nature and as [a] structural solution to the global climate crisis” m!78&,.&9$:!;D:8!
  44. 44. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Global consensus on fundamental role of ecosystems !  110 nations are engaged in EbA-activities !  Africa: 22 implicit !  Latin America: 5 explicit, 12 implicit !  Asia: 5 explicit, 11 implicit DH$-'-2(@)'-%(*)$( @1&-"%&$5(4%&I'1'%5J( P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  45. 45. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA targets: measurable and meaningful? !  13 iNDCs with EbA components had +/- measurable targets: !  restoration of 35,000 hectares of primary forest and mangroves by 2020 (Madagascar) !  zero deforestation by the year 2030 (Mexico) m!n&O(+-!i(:<*+! P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  46. 46. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA targets: measurable and meaningful? !  Most targets are broad, e.g. !  “protect natural heritage, biodiversity, forestry and fishery resources, through an ecosystem-based adaptation approach” (Morocco) !  “enhance livelihood approach for integrating natural resources management and preservation of sensitive ecosystems” (Yemen) P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  47. 47. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA targets: measurable and meaningful? !  Only 23% nations with EbA components refer to involvement of local communities (on which sustainability depends) !  EbA targets rarely based on science (low resilience)
  48. 48. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! EbA financing and cross-sectoral integration !  Only 28% of plans are costed (limits capacity to access climate finance) with no consideration of ecosystem services !  Most lack explicit links with national adaptation and biodiversity plans - incoherent mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity policy
  49. 49. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Policy pointers !  Governments and key non-state actors should be encouraged formally recognize EbA as a potentially highly cost- effective adaptation approach with the most co-benefits to deliver against international agreements P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  50. 50. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Policy pointers "  Parties should be encouraged to: 1)  research and monitor mitigation, adaptation and other benefits of EbA and build strong evidence for mainstreaming EbA into national plans 2)  establish measurable and meaningful EbA targets in national plans, and report on progress towards these in the iNDCs 3)  integrate ecosystem service valuation tools into adaptation planning, to support development of properly costed plans 4)  promote communication across all sectors involved in adaptation P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  51. 51. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Policy pointers "  Those implementing EbA projects should share learning on what makes EbA ecologically, socially and economically effective "  Leading platforms supporting mitigation strategies should highlight and promote adaptation co-benefits P+88$:!+.!&#!E/012G!QQ5F![-(+H!
  52. 52. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Opportunities for of EbA in the UK?
  53. 53. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Opportunities for of EbA in the UK? EF%GHI%JKLM% C"#:H%JN%O,'+% H3P.6%I)'6% "8H%YY!
  54. 54. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Status of EbA in the UK? !  Rarely mentioned by those reporting to DEFRA on the NAP !  Lots of implicit EbA (natural flood management, Envt.Agency) !  Few explicit EbA projects (managed realignment) !  Alkborough (Humber estuary), Wallasea Island (Essex) WW0!N&!(:.+-98&#!N&%(.&.)I!,-$.+<.)!V00*!,+$,#+! 11UN&!)&#.!J&-)NI!)&O+)!d1T!`!*J!R&##!
  55. 55. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! UK NAP themes !  Built environment !  Infrastructure !  Healthy and resilient communities !  Agriculture and forestry !  Natural environment !  Business !  Local government 5%7! Cff!-+)(#(+:.!:&.D-&#!+<$)K).+J)!&)!&!*+K!4)H$#"!$H! &8&,.&9$:!-&.N+-!.N&:!)(J,#K!&!OD#:+-&%(#(.K!
  56. 56. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Opportunities for EBA in the UK
  57. 57. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Opportunities for EBA in the UK •  L$$#(:@!++<.)!$H!.-++)!&:8!@-++:!),&<+)!(:! D-%&:!+:O(-$:J+:.)! •  P<&^+-+8!+O(8+:<+!H$-!-+8D<+8!N+&.!).-+))! •  [+^+-!+O(8+:<+!.N&.!%-(:@)!$.N+-!N+&#.N! %+:+b.)!
  58. 58. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Opportunities for EBA in the UK
  59. 59. Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (N Seddon, Oxford/IIED)! Conclusions !  Properly implemented science-based EbA effective way of plugging the “adaptation gap” whilst helping to meet many SDGs !  High level pledges favour EbA, but weak targets and finances !  Consolidated science and practitioner learning needed to enhance design, implementation and evaluation of EbA, and generate meaningful targets !  Costed adaptation plans that account for natural capital and ecosystem services !  Advocacy to promote uptake and stimulate cross-sectoral engagement on EbA

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