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Leveraging BI and Predictive Analytics to
     deliver Real time forecasting

                     Shyam Desigan
                   CFO & Sr. VP of IT
         American Academy of Physician Assistants



       CIO Healthcare Summit, Dallas, TX February 2013
The second-fastest-growing health
  profession in the next decade

                      86,500
         Number of certified PAs in 2012, according to the
      National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants




                        83,600
                    Employment in 2010


                      108,300
              Projected employment in 2020
Membership
       43,495
Number of AAPA Members
        31,756
         PA Members


        11,739
      PA Student Members
Top 4 Primary Work
 Settings for a PA
      โ€ข   Hospitals 39.4%
      โ€ข   Single-Specialty Physician Groups 19.7%
      โ€ข   Solo Physician Practice 11%
      โ€ข   Multi-Specialty Physician Group 9.5%
Top 3 Primary PA Specialties

โ€ข Family medicine 24.8%
โ€ข Other Surgical sub specialties 23.2%
โ€ข Internal Medicine sub specialties 10.3%
The Forecasting Challenge
          โ€ข Can you gather all your data in one place, so you can
            analyze it?
          โ€ข Can you refresh this data in real time?
          โ€ข Can you query the data and see immediate results?
ERP
          โ€ข Does this system have intuitive user interfaces that can      Databases
            be used by anyone?
          โ€ข Can you do this without IT?
          โ€ข Is it fast to deploy and affordable?



 CRM                                                                   Spreadsheets
              SCM                 CPM
Business Intelligence



                                                                       Business
              Monitoring                Reporting                    Intelligence
           What is happening?           What happened?



                      Corporate
                     Performance
                     Management
       Forecasting                             Analytics
 What will happen?                              Why did it happen?



                           Budgeting
                           & Planning
                            What should happen?
Better BI & FP&A In the Cloud augments
    limited flexibility with existing systems
      Low entry cost and
        no requirements
              for capital
            expenditure


  Rapid deployment
 and self-service; no
  requirement for IT
        involvement

Integrates securely and easily
   with any other application,
       platform, environment
Adaptive Planning Analytics Platform
Analyze revenue and expense drivers
Drill-Down into KPIs
What-If Scenarios
Why Visualization?
Highly Visual Graphics to Aid in
                     Quick Understanding
Revenue Trend           On Time Delivery   New Sales Pipeline




Incident Type           Production Trend   Financial Status
Visualize Trends
Glean Insights from Dashboards

โ€ข Visualize KPIs
โ€ข Get Visual & Email Alerts
โ€ข Analyze & Perform What-If
  Scenarios
โ€ข Collaborate
โ€ข Personalize
Business Discovery:
                  Business User-Driven BI
                                             Remixability
                   App Model               and Reassembly    Social and
                                                            Collaborative

  Insight                                                                        Mobility
Everywhere




                         IT



                              Production                     Finance        HR
             Marketing


                                                  Sales
QlikView Business Discovery Presentation Layer
                                                                       Marketing
                                                       Finance                          Operations
Presentation


                                                 Sales




                                                                                                               QLIKVIEW
                                 Windows IIS           BUSINESS DISCOVERY APPS                                WEBSERVER   BUSINESS USERS
Application




                                                                                                                            Data / Business
                   IT Admins
                                                                                                                          Analysts Developers

                                                                  QLIKVIEW                              QVW; QVD files
                                                                   SERVER



                 QLIKVIEW                 Windows                                                                             QLIKVIEW
                MANAGEMENT                  Based                 QLIKVIEW                                                   DEVELOPER
Data Access




                 CONSOLE                  File Share             PUBLISHER
                                          (Optional)

                                                          Custom connectors; ODBC;                                             Security
                  Third-Party                                OLEDB; QVX; XML                                                 Integration:
                  Integration:
                                                                                                                           โ€ข Windows Server
                   โ€ข Informatica                 EXCEL           SQL           SAP            ERP                           โ€ข Tivoli Software
                         โ€ข Dell                                                                                                   โ€ข IBM
                       โ€ข Boomi
                      โ€ข Sybase                                                DATA
                                                ORACLE      SALESFORCE                    INFORMATICA
               โ€ข and many moreโ€ฆ                                             WAREHOUSE



                                                       OPERATIONAL DATA SOURCES
iDiscover for AAPA
AAPA โ€“ Member Geo Analysis
AAPA Financial Ratio Trends
SPSS Modeler for predictive
       analytics
Leveraging SPSS Modeler




โ€ข   We utilize SPSS Modeler to create predictive models with our structured
    data, including splitting, resampling and variable creation
โ€ข   Developing predictive models including decision trees, support vector
    machines and ensemble methods
โ€ข   Visualization: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), and tools that persuade
โ€ข   Evaluating predictive models, including viewing lift curves, variable
    importance and avoiding overfitting
AAPA Backend Data Roadmap
Questions?




sdesigan@aapa.org
    # cubiczan

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Leveraging BI and Predictive Analytics to deliver Real time forecasting

  • 1. Leveraging BI and Predictive Analytics to deliver Real time forecasting Shyam Desigan CFO & Sr. VP of IT American Academy of Physician Assistants CIO Healthcare Summit, Dallas, TX February 2013
  • 2. The second-fastest-growing health profession in the next decade 86,500 Number of certified PAs in 2012, according to the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants 83,600 Employment in 2010 108,300 Projected employment in 2020
  • 3. Membership 43,495 Number of AAPA Members 31,756 PA Members 11,739 PA Student Members
  • 4. Top 4 Primary Work Settings for a PA โ€ข Hospitals 39.4% โ€ข Single-Specialty Physician Groups 19.7% โ€ข Solo Physician Practice 11% โ€ข Multi-Specialty Physician Group 9.5%
  • 5. Top 3 Primary PA Specialties โ€ข Family medicine 24.8% โ€ข Other Surgical sub specialties 23.2% โ€ข Internal Medicine sub specialties 10.3%
  • 6. The Forecasting Challenge โ€ข Can you gather all your data in one place, so you can analyze it? โ€ข Can you refresh this data in real time? โ€ข Can you query the data and see immediate results? ERP โ€ข Does this system have intuitive user interfaces that can Databases be used by anyone? โ€ข Can you do this without IT? โ€ข Is it fast to deploy and affordable? CRM Spreadsheets SCM CPM
  • 7. Business Intelligence Business Monitoring Reporting Intelligence What is happening? What happened? Corporate Performance Management Forecasting Analytics What will happen? Why did it happen? Budgeting & Planning What should happen?
  • 8. Better BI & FP&A In the Cloud augments limited flexibility with existing systems Low entry cost and no requirements for capital expenditure Rapid deployment and self-service; no requirement for IT involvement Integrates securely and easily with any other application, platform, environment
  • 10. Analyze revenue and expense drivers
  • 14. Highly Visual Graphics to Aid in Quick Understanding Revenue Trend On Time Delivery New Sales Pipeline Incident Type Production Trend Financial Status
  • 16. Glean Insights from Dashboards โ€ข Visualize KPIs โ€ข Get Visual & Email Alerts โ€ข Analyze & Perform What-If Scenarios โ€ข Collaborate โ€ข Personalize
  • 17. Business Discovery: Business User-Driven BI Remixability App Model and Reassembly Social and Collaborative Insight Mobility Everywhere IT Production Finance HR Marketing Sales
  • 18. QlikView Business Discovery Presentation Layer Marketing Finance Operations Presentation Sales QLIKVIEW Windows IIS BUSINESS DISCOVERY APPS WEBSERVER BUSINESS USERS Application Data / Business IT Admins Analysts Developers QLIKVIEW QVW; QVD files SERVER QLIKVIEW Windows QLIKVIEW MANAGEMENT Based QLIKVIEW DEVELOPER Data Access CONSOLE File Share PUBLISHER (Optional) Custom connectors; ODBC; Security Third-Party OLEDB; QVX; XML Integration: Integration: โ€ข Windows Server โ€ข Informatica EXCEL SQL SAP ERP โ€ข Tivoli Software โ€ข Dell โ€ข IBM โ€ข Boomi โ€ข Sybase DATA ORACLE SALESFORCE INFORMATICA โ€ข and many moreโ€ฆ WAREHOUSE OPERATIONAL DATA SOURCES
  • 19.
  • 21. AAPA โ€“ Member Geo Analysis
  • 23. SPSS Modeler for predictive analytics
  • 24. Leveraging SPSS Modeler โ€ข We utilize SPSS Modeler to create predictive models with our structured data, including splitting, resampling and variable creation โ€ข Developing predictive models including decision trees, support vector machines and ensemble methods โ€ข Visualization: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), and tools that persuade โ€ข Evaluating predictive models, including viewing lift curves, variable importance and avoiding overfitting
  • 25. AAPA Backend Data Roadmap

Editor's Notes

  1. You can analyze your business in a variety of ways, to immediately see whatโ€™s driving it.
  2. Users can drill down into data drivers across all dimensions, with a hierarchical drill tree showing the starting point and the path taken, ensuring that users donโ€™t lose their way.
  3. While analyzing current performance by drilling into a dial and expanding it by a dimension or by drivers, you can specify a scenario to analyze. Immediately, the system displays the results of that scenario and the impact on metrics being examined.This capability is very powerful for answering questions, such as, โ€œWhat would be the impact on net margin if we improved people costs in a certain location?Asking questions like this is as simple as selecting a dial in a drill tree, highlighting a bar, segment or point of interest, and then specifying a new value or percentage change for that metric. Scenarios can also be run on multiple points at once. Using this powerful capability, you can determine which action or combination of actions will achieve the optimal result.
  4. Our highly visual graphics allows your users to visualize their metrics, for instant understanding and new insights into their businesses.
  5. You can spot trends at a glance, and identify underlying drivers.
  6. Business Discovery is a whole new way of doing things for BI designed to meet todayโ€™s heightened technology expectations.It focuses on the business user and the groups and organizations they exist in, rather than the top-down approach of traditional BI.QlikView takes an approach that provides information and analysis precisely focused on the business problems business users are trying to solve.Itโ€™s also about helping users share knowledge and analysis across individuals, groups and organizations. Imagine the dramatic impact this could have if it was deployed across organizations throughout the world.Business Discovery is about delivering Insight Everywhere. QlikView takes insight creation to the very edges of the organization, shifting from a few people who have the skills and tools to create insights from data, to everyone creating insight specific to their business problems.Itโ€™s also based on an App Model, providingย  lightweight apps that are easy to create and quick to deploy for specific people and groups that need them.ย QlikView is also Remixable, meaning users remix and reassemble data in new views and create new visualizations on the fly for deeper understanding, allowing individuals to constantly shift the analysis to meet their new and changing business requirementsย Social and Collaborative capabilities are another hallmark.Decisions are rarely made in a vacuum or based on a single dashboard or report. Theyโ€™re often made collaboratively in groups and meetings.QlikView enables collaborative decision-making through social Business Discovery. It enables organizations to create a community of users who co-create apps, communicate with each other in context of their decision apps, and explore business data collaboratively, to drive knowledge that can cascade across an organization. More on that in a minute.QlikView also offers total Mobility, delivering anywhere, anytime Business Discovery on virtually any device.
  7. The QlikView Business Discovery platform meets the needs of the most demanding organizations.ย Itโ€™s different from the lightweight tools that only provide visualization capabilities. ย QlikView combines all of your data, whether itโ€™s located in ERP, CRM, data warehouses, SQL databases, or even Excel.That data is processed by QlikView Server, a highly scalable, secure and manageable IT-friendly environment.QlikView Server delivers data to QlikView clients, which enable business users to associatively search data, meaning they find not just what they were looking for, but also data relationships they werenโ€™t aware of.QlikView Publisher, an optional module, provides additional scheduling, administration, and management capabilities for large deployments.ย QlikView delivers all of this data and analysis through state-of-the-art visualizations and interactive reports that paint a clear picture of how the business is performing. ย Our robust platform supports tens of thousands of connected users spread across multiple geographies.ย And they can access QlikView on virtually any device.
  8. You can choose from the most insightful way to visualize your data โ€“ with just one click. By simply selecting a dial control, you can change the way data is displayed, to do things such as:Use histograms and Pareto charts to identify major contributors to an outcomeView standard deviations to measure volatilityUse waterfall charts to analyze how a value increases or decreases to come to a final valueApply trend lines better understand historical trends