Ppt iero maret 2013

Indonesian Economic
Review and Outlook (IERO)
Faculty of Business and Economics
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Yogyakarta

Outline

Macroeconomic Dashboard | FEB UGM

Recent Economic Developments
Recent Economic Developments


 The debt crisis in Europe continues to be crucially important.
 Economic growth in China, India, Jepang, and AS have weaken.
 International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted global economic growth of 3.3% in
2012, 3.6% in 2013 (which is lower than 3.8% posted in 2011).
 Uncertainty which has emanated from the crisis in Europe continues to drag
down the global economy and in turn the Indonesian economy in two ways
namely trade and international finance.
 Indonesian economic registered 6.17% in Q3 2012 on year on year basis (posted
6.37% in Q2 2012).
 Domestic aggregate Indonesian economic mainly supported by Household
Consumption and Gross Fixed Capital Formation.


Figure 1: GDP economic growth, Indonesia in 2000 constant price by
Expenditure, 2005 – 2012 (YoY, in %)

Economic growth, shows a downward trend, in line with sluggish in world economy

Source: BPS and CEIC


Figure 2: GDP economic growth, Indonesia based in 2000 constant prices by economic sector,
2005 – 2012 (YoY, in %)
From the perspective of production, Indonesian economic growth in driven by Transportation
and Communications sector, Construction sector, also Financial, Ownership and Business sector



Figure 3 : Unemployment in Indonesia

Unemployment in Indonesia shows a downward trend over the years



Development in Monetary Indicators
Development in Monetary Indicators


Figure 4: Money Supply

Despite M1 registering a decrease in October 2012 compared to the previous month,
in general, money supply shows an upward

SSource: Bank Indonesia and CEIC


Figure 5 : Inflation Level, 2009 – 2012 (YoY, in %)

Need for careful handling of the problem of higher core inflation than general
inflation

Source : BPS and CEIC


Figure 6: Components of Inflation, 2009 – 2012 (YoY, in %)

Rising inlfation on year in November 2012 is attributable to an increase in prices as
reflected by several expenditure categories

Sumber : BPS dan CEIC

Source : BPS and CEIC


Figure7: Developments in BI Rate, SBI, Deposits, and
Credit/Loans Rates, 2005 – 2012 (in %)

Interest rate continues to be in consonance with low inflationary pressures
but still under control

Source: Bank Indonesia and CEIC


Figure 8: Indonesia’s International Reserve Position, 2009 – 2012 (in USD
Million)

The increase of Indonesia’s international reserve is expected to reduce weakening
pressure on the Rupiah

Source: Bank Indonesia and CEIC


Figure 9: The Exchange Rate and Share Prices, 2009 - 2012
Pressure from global markets continue to induce depreciation of the
exchange rate of the Rupiah durinbg 2012
IDX (LHS)

IDX
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

IDR per USD (RHS)

IDR/USD
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0

Source : Bursa Efek Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, and CEIC


Developments in Government Finances
Developments in Government Finances


Table1 : APBN 2012 and 2013

Economic Growth (%)
Inflation (%) yoy
Exchange Rate (IDR/USD)
3 Month - SBI/SPN Rate (%)
Oil Price (USD/barrel)
Oil Lifting (barrel/day)
Gas Lifting (barrel/day)

APBN 2012 APBN-P 2012 APBN 2013
6.7
6.5
6.8
5.3
6.8
4.9
8800
9000
9800
6
5
5
90
105
100
950000
930000
900000
- 1,360,000

Source : Ministry of Finance


Developments in Fiscal Policy
Developments in Fiscal Policy


Figure 10 : Components of Government and Private Sector Foreign Debt

Government and private sector foreign debt, as well as ratio of foreign debt to GDP
show an upward trend

Source: BPS, Bank Indonesia, and CEIC


Figure 11: Government Debt
The ratio of Indonesian government debt to GDP shows a downward trend

Source : Ministry of Finance and CEIC


Figure 12: Composition of Government Securities
Fixed coupon bonds show an upward trend

Source: Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance and CEIC


Figure 13: Foreign Ownership of Securities

The value of foreign ownership of equity, Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI),
and bonds shows an upward trend

Source: Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, and CEIC


International
International


Figure 14: Indonesia Trade Balance

Indonesia trade balance falls back into deficit in October 2012

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and CEIC


Figure 15: Oil and Gas Exports and Imports

Weakening global markets have impacted on Indonesian oil and gas exports



Figure 16: Non oil and gas exports and imports

Trade balance in non oil and gas relapsed into a deficit in October 2012

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik dan CEIC



Figure 17: Current Accounts

Improvement in the balance of payments stimulated better performance in current accounts

Source : Bank Indonesia and CEIC


Figure 18: Capital and Financial Accounts

Developments in the domestic economy led to improvement in capital and financial accounts



Figure 19 : Indonesia Balance of Payments

Indonesia posted a balance of payments surplus in the third quarter 2012



GAMA Leading Economic Indicator
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator


Leading Economic Indicator and Indonesia GDP Business Cycles
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

Q
0
2
3
Q
0
2
4
Q
0
2
Q
1
0
2
Q
1
0
2
3
Q
1
0
2
4
Q
1
0
2
1
Q
0
2
Q
0
2
3
Q
0
2
4
Q
0
2
1
Q
3
0
2
Q
3
0
2
Q
3
0
2
4
Q
3
0
2
1
Q
4
0
2
Q
4
0
2
3
Q
4
0
2
Q
4
0
2
1
Q
5
0
2
Q
5
0
2
3
Q
5
0
2
4
Q
5
0
2
1
Q
6
0
2
Q
6
0
2
3
Q
6
0
2
4
Q
6
0
2
1
Q
7
0
2
Q
7
0
2
3
Q
7
0
2
4
Q
7
0
2
1
Q
8
0
2
Q
8
0
2
3
Q
8
0
2
4
Q
8
0
2
1
Q
9
0
2
Q
9
0
2
3
Q
9
0
2
4
Q
9
0
2
Q
1
0
2
Q
1
0
2
3
Q
1
0
2
4
Q
1
0
2
Q
1
0
2
Q
1
0
2
3
Q
1
0
2
4
Q
1
0
2
Q
1
0
2
Q
1
0
2
3
Q
1
0
2

-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
Siklus PDB





Leading Indicator

GAMA LEI in the thirtd quarter 2011 started showing signs of changing course, presaging period of
impending slow growth.
GAMA LEI signals in the third quarter 2012 point to a change for the better, slower path of decreasing.
In light of that, economic practitioners must be ready to determine the right strategy and policy needed to
support the economy in the future.


Current Issues
Current Issues

The Economic Crisis in Europe :: Continues
The Economic Crisis in Europe Continues


Current Issue

The Economic Crisis in Europe : Continues
by Prof. Dr. Sri Adiningsih, M.Sc and Rosa Kristiadi M.Comm



European economic crisis which begun in 2010 shows no signs of abating. The ongoing economic crisis in
the Eurozone region is attributable to the large public debt, which started to emerge in 2000, reflected in a
significant increase in the ratio of government debt.



In 2000, the ratio of government debt for Greece was just 77% of GDP, but in 2012 it had surged to 170%.
IMF predicts that Greece debt ratio will rise above 180% in 2013 due to the widening budget deficit.



Such a condition is very much in contrast to Maastricht Treaty rules that imposed maximum limit of 60%
on the country’s debt to GDP ratio and a deficit of 3% of GDP. The theory is that economic uncertainty in
the regional economy is unavoidable if the two ratios go beyond the maximum limits imposed.



To aggravate the situation, the debt crisis has now spread to other countries in the European Region such
as Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain, and even France.



Ireland’s ratio of government debt to GDP reached 103% in 2012, which is in contrast to 36% in 2000.
Portugal, which in 2012 had a debt ratio of 113%, based on IMF predictions will surge to 119% in 2013.



The large debt overhang facing Eurozone countries such as Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, has hampered
their capacity to repay their debt obligations, causing an economic crisis in the European economic region.


Figure 21: Ratio of government debt to GDP in some countries within the
European Union region, 2000 – 2013 (in %)

Source: IMF WEO, October 2012


Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook


Economic Outlook
 The Indonesian economy will continue to show resilience amidst the repercussions of the
European economic crisis on the global economy in 2013.
 Financial markets, whicha re the main transmission through which global economy uncertainty
affects the Indonesian economy, will continue to be an important source of vulnerability in 2013.
Large volume of portfolio inflow in 2012, will continue in 2013, along with its attendant
uncertainty, would become source of vulnerability.
 The international trade showed weaknesses in 2012, will follow the same pattern in 2013.
 Development in the non tradeable sector such as Transportation and Communications,
Construction, and Financial Services, Real Estate and Company Services are expected to pressure
and difficulties.

 Gama LEI: Indonesian economy growth in 2013 will not much different to growth in 2012
within the range of 6-6.5%. The economic authority is expected to implement policies that
wioll ensure that macroeconomic and financial market stability, which conditions are needed
to ensure investment and business climate remains sound.
 Gradual reducing if fuel subsidies is one of the options that can be taken, and funds saved in
the process transferred to developing infrastructure which will go a long way in enhancing
the competitiveness of Indonesian products on the international market.


Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook (IERO)
Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook (IERO)

MACROECONOMIC DASHBOARD
FAKULTAS EKONOMIKA dan BISNIS
UNIVERSITAS GADJAH MADA
Pertamina Tower Building 4th fl. Room 4.1
Jl. Humaniora No. 1 Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281
Phone : +62 274 548 517 ext 373
Email : iero@macroeconomicdashboard.com
Website : www.macroeconomicdashboard.com


Ppt iero maret 2013

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