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Current
Developments in
Economy
Dr. V. Aditya Srinivas
Insurance Sector (8/6/11)
 3 companies have seen 3 CEO change
in 8 years. ICICI,Bajaj, Aviva
 14 life insurance companies have less
than 1 % market share
 Out of 23 private companies only 8 have
turned profitable
 Only ICICI and SBI Life have 10 %
market share
Insurance
 IRDA has increased lock in period from 3
to 5 years for ULIP
 Reduction in charges also creating
problems
 Break Even has increased from 8-9
years to 10-12years
Insurance Market Share
 ICICI 6.3 %
 SBI Life 6.0 %
 HDFC life 3.2 %
 Bajaj Allianz 2.8 %
 Reliance Life 2.4 %
 Birla Sunlife 1.7 %
 Max New York 1.6 %
 Tata AIG 1.10 %
FM Meets FII (8/6/11)
 Finance Minister had a close door
meeting with 30 FIIs
 He assured him about long term growth
impact of India
Indian Economy
Challenges(9/6/11)
 GDP forecast reduced to 7.8 %
 Revenue collection becoming challenge
as corporate profitability goes down
 Fiscal Deficit target of 4.6% difficult to
achieve
 Disinvestment target of Rs. 40,000 crore
difficult to achieve as stock market in
downtrend
Interest Rate problem
 RBI had since 2010 raised repo and
reverse repo rates ten times to 7.5% and
6.5%, respectively, to control high
inflation mainly due to high fuel and
commodity prices.
 Repo is the rate at which banks borrow
money from RBI. Reverse repo is the
rate at which banks lend to RBI.
Direct Tax vs GDP Growth %
(9/6/11)
 Year GDP Direct Taxes
 2007-08 9.3 34.7
 2008-09 6.8 8.1
 2009-10 8.0 14.9
 2010-11 8.5 19.3
US Economy Gloomy (9/6/11)
 India has invested $ 39 billion in US
Treasuries as on March 31, 2011.
 US has deficit of $ 1.4 Trillion this fiscal
year.
 QE 1 US had injected $ 1 Trillion into US
Economy
 QE 2 US had injected $ 600 billion into
US Economy
 Unemployment rate at 9.1 %
European Zone Problems
 International lenders who bailed out Greece last
year with a 110 billion euro (USD 160 billion)
loan
 GDP to shrink by 3.8% this year and start
growing in 2012
 Greece's economy shrank far more than
expected at the start of 2011, signaling a
second wave of austerity measures prescribed
by the EU and IMF will pile even more pain on a
fractious society
NIM for PSU Bank (9/6/11)
 Year NIM
 92-95 2.72
 05-06 2.85
 06-07 2.55
 07-08 2.15
 08-09 2.10
 Private sector banks it is as high as 4 to 5%
Market Valuation (P.E) (9/6/11)
 India Sensex at 14.85
 China Sanghai at 12.73
 Brazil Boveszpa at 10.04
 Russia RTS at 6.74
Mutual Funds Industry
 Collection in 2010 in NFO less by 57 %
from 2009
 Only 40 % of AUM is of Equity base and
60 % is of debt
 AUM in 2004 was Rs. 1,50,000 crore
which went to Rs. 8,00,000 crore in 2007
but then reduced to 6,00,000 in 2008-09
 41 Mutual Funds are there in India
currently with more than 1000 schemes
IIP (10/6/11)
 Index of Industrial production (IIP) for the
month of April grew at 4.4% - less as
compared to growth of 7.3% in previous
month, as per old series. As per new
series, which have 45% more items than
old series, IIP grew at 6.3%.
Indirect Tax Increases
(13/6/11)
 Exercise duty collection, indication of
factory production rose 38.4 % to Rs.
11,500 crores
 Revenue from Customs rose 37 % to Rs.
25,176 crores
 Service tax mop up was 27.6 % higher at
7,722 crores.
Financial Inclusion (13/6/11)
 Govt and RBI has target to cover 73000
villages having population of more than
2000 by March 2012.
 The target is that each of them should
have bank account
 Direct cash Subsidy can be transferred
to these accounts.
 Cost of opening an account and
maintaining it is Rs. 65
Financial Inclusion (13/6/11)
 Less than 20 % of such accounts is
active even after one year of opening.
 Currently only 45 % of population has
access to bank account
 Low ratio of one bank branch per 16000
people
QIP Investment Back Fire
(14/6/11)
 A QIP helps a listed company to rise
capital in the domestic market via equity
hares, fully and partly convertible
debentures to a buyer of is choice.
 SEBI instituted the guidelines for this
relatively new financing avenue on May
8, 2006 to reduce dependence on
foreign capital.
Worst Performing QIPs
 QIP Date QIP Price Price
 Aksh optifibre Sep 20 6.7
 Kiri Industry Nov 598 219
 C&C Const Apr 244 92
 Ansal Proper Oct 90 41
Best Performing QIP
 QIP Date QIP Price Price
 Exide Indus March 108 156
 Tata Motors Oct 764 1013
 Shoppers Stop Oct 325 440
 Godrej consu July 345 438
Inflation Rises (15/6/11)
 Inflation rises to 9.06 % from 8.66 % for
May 2011
 This has again increased the scope for
Interest rate rise by RBI
 Rise in interest rates slows down the
Economy as cost of capital goes up
Interest Rates in India
 Bank Rate at 6 %
 Repo rate is at 8.5 %
 Reverse Repo is at 7.5 %
 SLR is at 24 %
 CRR is at 6 %
World Interest Rates
 USA 0.25 %
 Japan 0 %
 Bank of England 1 %
 Europe 1.5 %
 Australia 2%
 China 3.3 %
 India average 9 to 10 %
China Ups Reserve Ratio by
50 bps (15/6/11)
 Inflation in China is at 5.5 % which is 34 months
high
 It has increase its RRR (Reserve Ratio
Requirement) to 21.5 %
 China one year lending rate is 6.6% and
deposit rate is 3.3%
 Hardening of interest rates by China bring down
the commodities prices since it is largest
consumer of commodities
Greece Credit lowest in world
(15/6/11)
 S & P has lowered the rating of Greece
which makes it lowest in the world
 It is lower than Pakistan and Ecuador
since both these were out of
international markets since 2009
 Greece was given first bailout package
of $ 158 billion
Economy finds it tough
(16/6/11)
 6.3 % IIP in April 2011 compared to 8.8
% in March 2010
 Q4 GDP rose only 7.8 % compared with
8.3 % in third quarter
 0.4 % Investment Growth in Q4 as
against 20 % year earlier
 32 % drop in net FDI inflow in 2010
 44 % drop in gross FDI inflow in 2010
Broking Industry facing tough
times (16/6/11)
 Company % chg NP
 India Info line -8.99
 Edelweiss Capital 1.68
 Kotak Securities -30.05
 Indiabulls securities -43.86
 AdityaBirla Money -166.56
 Geojit BNP Paribas -38.52
Types of PMS (20/6/11)
 Fundamental PMS (Multi cap )
 Value Investing PMS (long term horizon
with small and mid cap stocks)
 Quantitative PMS (purely mathematical
calculations)
 Event Driven PMS (Event base stocks
with short term focus)
 Mutual Fund PMS (Invest in different
schemes of Mutual funds)
Gold – Ever Rising Demand
(21/6/11)
 Gold has given return of 160 % in last 5
years
 Nifty has given return of 83 % in last 5
years
 Central Banks globally have become net
buyers of Gold in 2010 in last 21 years
 In 2010, Central Banks bought 76 tonnes
of gold
Gold – Ever Rising Demand
(21/6/11)
 In 2011, first 6 months saw Central
Banks buying 129 tonnes of gold
 In 2005 central banks sold gold worth
674 tonnes
 China Forex Reserve has only 1.8 % of
its in gold of $ 3 Trillion forex reserve
 World average is 11 %
 China has to buy 6000 tonnes to reach
global average
Gold cont ….
 Japan gold reserve stands 3.2 % of its
total forex reserve of $ 1.14 trillion
 India gold reserve is at 8.2 % of $ 300
billion of forex reserve
 Supply of gold for last 20 years has
increased only by 0.7 % annual rate.
Why turnaround in Gold
 Over years, Central Banks have had major
portion of their reserves in US dollar
 Gold is considered as “Store of Wealth”
 US economy weakening
 More printing of US dollars leads to
depreciation in its value
 Gold cannot be printed or mined fast, value of
currencies is sinking against gold
Gold as % of Forex Reserves
 Country Gold Tonnes % Res
 Singapore 127 2.4
 Taiwan 424 4.7
 India 558 8.2
 Japan 765 3.2
 China 1054 1.6
Gold Supply Tight
 South Africa which produced about 1000
tonnes in 1970 now produced less than
200 tonnes in 2010
 Very few large gold mines are expected
to come up
 Over next five years, only seven gold
mines that are capable of producing
more than 500 kilo ozones ( 1 0z = 31.1
grams)
International Fund (22/6/11)
 An international fund is a fund that can
invest in companies located anywhere
outside its investors country of residence
 Feeder funds is one that invest through
another fund called the master fund. Its
usually launched to beef up the asset
base of the master fund
Performance of International
Fund
 Funds 1 Year Return
 Fidelity Global Real Asset 19.48
 DSPBR World Energy 19.19
 DWS Global Agri Fund 18.78
 DSPBR world Mining 18.41
 Birla Commodity Equities 16.97
 Mirae Asset China Advantage 14.15
 Principal Global Opportunity 13.91
PE Investors Eye India
(23/6/11)
 Private equity investors are sitting on cash to
the tune of $20 billion to enter India
 $70-75 bn of private equity (PE) and venture
capital investment in India by 2015.
 about $22 bn is required for follow-up funding of
660 current PE-funded companies. Then, about
2,000 companies in the IT and IT-enabled
services sectors, manufacturing, engineering,
construction and healthcare are expected to
attract close to $30 bn in new PE and VC
investments over the next four years
PE Investors Eye India
(23/6/11)
 The total investment by private equity
investors over the last six years is
estimated at $50 bn through 1,600 deals
 PE investments have grown from $2 bn
in 2005 to $19 bn in 2007. Thereafter,
investment value fell to around $6.2 bn
in 2010, registering a compounded
annual growth rate of 25% over the past
six years.
PE Investors Eye India
(23/6/11)
 The real estate and property
development sector clocked 203 deals
worth $13 bn of the total of $50 bn PE
investment over the past six years.
FCCB Creates problem for
Corp India (27/6/11)
 Rs. 16000 crore convertible bonds sold by top
500 companies come for repayment by march
2012
 Rs.31500 crores worth of bonds due for
redemption by March 2013
 48% price discount for conversion of Assam
company
 86% discount to conversion price of RCom
 50 % discount to conversion price of Suzlon
ULIP Sales fall hurt companies
(27/6/11)
 LIC new business fall by 8 %
 Private life insurers fall by 23 %
 ICICI fell by 29 %
 HDFC fall by 27 %
 Reliance life fell by 52 %
 Bajaj fell by 42 %
GDP and Capital Investment
Correlate (29/6/11)
 Year GDP % Capital Contri
 2005-06 9.5 % 55
 2006-07 9.7 % 56
 2007-08 9.2% 72
 2008-09 6.7% -10
 2009-10 7.4 % 55
 2010-1 8.8% 40
GDP and Capital Investment
Correlate (29/6/11)
 Higher GDP Growth requires strong
Capital Investments by Corporate sector
 Currently due to high interest rates, the
capital investment plans have been put
on hold by corporate sector
NBFC under RBI Scanner
(29/6/11)
 Around 12630 NBFC are registered with
RBI as on June 30, 2010
 There are 228 deposit taking NBFC
 212 NBFC have CAR of 12 % but RBI
wants it to 15 % by March 2012
 Banks Credit to NBFC rose 55.7 % in
April 2011 from 15 % year ago.
China holds Treasury in US
(1/7/11)
 China holds atleast $ 1.1 trillion
investment in US Treasury bills
 China accounts for 26 % of total
investment in US Treasuries
 If china pulls out this investments then
interest rates in US could go up fast
Young Working Population by
2040 15 to 59 years (1/7/11)
 2010 61.8 1980 54.6
 2015 62.5 1985 55.3
 2020 63.1 1990 55.9
 2025 63.5 1995 57.2
 2030 63.9 2000 58.6
 2035 63.9 2005 60.4
 2040 63.4
Economy on firm ground
(1/7/11)
 Core Sector grows 5.4 % in May vs 4.6
% April
 8 sector as compared to earlier 6 sectors
 Now core sector has 38 % weight age in
IIP index as compared to 26 % earlier
Indian consumption story to grow
14 % next 3 years (5/7/11)
 Consumer durables, automobiles,
personal care, food have maximum
growth potential in indian markets
MNC controls Indian markets
 MNC Global Sales %india Rank india
 Suzuki $23.6 Billion 23.3 1
 Nokia $58.1 Billion 11 1
 Unilever $58.7 billion 6.6 1
 LG $49.4 billion 5.9 1
 Samsung $135.8 billion 2.5 2
 Mcdonal $24.1 billion 0.37 1
PE Investment Rise, Exist Lag
(9/7/11)
 January to June 2011 saw Private Equity
deals with $ 5.8 billion
 Total deals in this period 211
 In 2010 there were 154 deals during
same period (37 % rise)
 Deal values have increased by 34 %
compared to same period in 2010
 Infrastructure sector had 23 % highest
share of total PE funds flowing in
Mutual Sitting on Cash % of
AUM (15/7/11)
 ICICI Prudential Advisor 28.8
 ING Optimix Global Commo 18.6
 Sahara Super 20 17.9
 Axis Midcap 15.4
 HSBC Midcap Equity 13.2
 IDFC Premier Equity 12.9
 Funds need to keep 5 % of AUM as cash to
meet day to day redemptions units
US Consumption down
(18/7/11)
 US Consumption in last 14 quarters have gone
up only 0.5 %
 This is from 2008 starting
 Pre 2008 crisis the consumption was 4 %
average for last 12 years
 That means Q3 again in Question mark ?
 Increase debt limit to $ 14.3 trillion
 Asian economies have $ 3 trillion in US
treasuries.
ARCIL Under stress from
Large Lenders
 Name Rs. Crores
 ICICI 9000
 SBI 3000
 IDBI 2000
 PNB 1000
 Buying 15 year mortgage assets,
overstepping ceiling of 8 year asset
Banks aggressive for SIP
(22/7/11)
 SBI Bank targets 25 lakh SIP till March
2012
 Axis Bank targets 5 lakh SIP till March
2012
 Overall MF industry from April 2012 to
June 2012 had 7 lakh folio closing down
 No support from Distributors
India in World Trade (22/7/11)
 India is among top 20 in exports of
goods
 India is among top 10 in service exports
 Our contribution in world GDP up from
4.6 % in 2000 to 5.4% in 2010
 India share in world exports in 2000 was
0.7 % and now in 2010 it is 1.7 %
Indian Corporate Results
(1/8/11) June quarter
 612 companies so far declared results
 Sales up 23.5 % vs 18 %
 PBDIT up 19.4 % vs 12.5 %
 Net Profit 13 % vs 19 %
 Interest outgo 19.4 % vs 7.7 %
 High interest rates killing Net Profit.
US Debt Default (2/8/11)
 To raise the current limit of borrowing of
$ 14.3 trillion by further $ 2.4 trillion
 To cut spending by $ 2.4 trillion in next
10 years
 Initial cut spending by $ 917 billion and
and another $1.5 trillion by year end
 India holds $ 41 billion in Treasury bonds
World job cuts (2/8/11)
 HSBC to cut 30,000 jobs by 2013. Cost
to revenue ratio touched 57.5 % which is
more than standard of 48 % to 52 %.
 China PMI reduces from 50.7 as
compared to 50.9 in June. This index is
made by HSBC
 India PMI reduces to 53.6 in July from
55.3 in June which is 20 month low
Finance Companies to tap bonds
from retail investors (2/8/11)
 Religare, muthoot and india Infoline to
raise Rs. 5000 with average interest of
around 12. 5 %
Retail Credit Growth (3/8/11)
 Retail loan grows at 17 % in June 2011
vs 6.6% in june 2010
 Total value Rs. 6,95,000 crores
 Home loans account for 3.7 % (Rs.
3,58,000 crores) vs 2 % year ago
 Auto loans lowest in 2 years
 Maruti – 26 % Hyundai – 11 %
 Auto sales leading indicator of demand
in the economy
Banks in BRIC in Risk
 Brazil financial shares have lost as consumer
defaults hit 12 month high in june and
borrowing cost climbs to 46 %
 China bank stocks at lowest level since 2006
 Bank of moscow needed the biggest bailout in
Russia history last month after racking up 5.4
Billion dollars of unsecured bad loans
 China faces risk that 30 % of total loans may go
for default
Telecom in worst shape
(4/8/11)
 Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has
fallen 12 % in India from Rs. 216 to Rs.
190
 Bharti Airtel made loss for 6th
straight
quarter
 Africa also made loss of Rs. 302 crore
Debt as % of GDP (4/8/11)
 Russia 9 % Ireland 114 %
 China 17 % Portugal 100 %
 South Korea 29 % US 100 %
 World Average 69 %
 India 64 %
 Japan 229 %
 Greece 152 %
 Italy 120 %
US Economy
Downgrade(12/8/11)
 US has been down graded from AAA
rating to AA by Standard and Poor which
sent shock waves across the globe
 France and UK may also lose its AAA
rating since the debt there is also very
high
 Equities market around world lost $ 5.4
trillion since the downgrade
US Mess
 Unemployment in 2010 9.6 % while in
2011 9.10 %
 Inflation CPI 1.6% in 2010 and 3.6 % in
2011
 GDP 2.9 % in 2010 and 1.40 % in 2011
Broking firms smell cash in
NCD (12/8/11)
 Companies like Indiainfoline, Religare
and muthoot finance are to raise Rs.
3500 crores
 This would fetch brokers commission of
Rs. 45 to 50 crores as their fees.
Sovereign Wealth
Fund(12/8/11)
 UAE investment authority $ 627 billion
 Norway/Govt Pension fund $512 billion
 China/SAFE Investment Co $ 347 billion
 China/China Investment Corp $ 332
billion
Car sales in China (12/8/11)
 1.01 million is number of passenger cars
sold in China in July
Insurance Penetration
 World average life insurance 4.5 %
 India average 4 %
 Non life penetration only 0.6 %
Euro Zone Data (18/8/11)
 17.5 % India exports to European Union
in 2010 -11
 4 % share in FDI inflows from Germany
and France in total inflows between April
2000 and May 2011
Real GDP and Fiscal Deficit
(Source IMF and year 2010)
 Real GDP Fiscal Deficit
 World 5 % 5.5 %
 Euro Area 1.7 6.1
 USA 2.8 10.3
 Emerging Eco 7.3 3.7
 Japan 3.9 9.6
 UK 1.3 10.2
 India 8.2 6.8
Real GDP and Fiscal Deficit
(Source IMF and year 2010)
 Real GDP Fiscal Deficit
 Ireland -1 % 32.2
 France 1.5 7.1
 Spain -0.1 9.2
 Portugal 1.4 7.3
 Belgium 2.0 4.6
 Germany 3.5 3.3
 Italy 1.3 4.5
 Greece -4.5 9.6
Primary Deficit (18/8/11)
 Ireland 29.7
 France 4.8
 Spain 7.8
 Portugal 4.6
 Belgium 1.3
 Germany 1.1
 Italy 0.2
 Greece 3.2
SBI CAR falls (22/8/11)
 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
 Tier I 9.38 9.45 7.77
 Total 14.25 13.39 11.98
 Provisioning 8,794 9,155 17,071
 Rs crore
 Tier I capital is 8 %
Take out Financing (24/8/11)
 Take out financing is a procedure under
which the loans made by banks to
infrastructure firms are sold to other
institutions so that banks recover their
funds ahead of the payment schedule
under the loan agreement.
 IIFCL (India Infrastructure Finance
Company Limited) has target of Rs.
10,000 crores for Fy 12
Banks in Take out financing in
FY 12
 Union Bank Rs. 1500 crores
 Central Bank Rs. 1300 crores
 IDBI bank Rs. 600 crores
 PNB Rs. 180 crores
 ________________________________
 Banks lending to infrastructure sector
 Power Rs.2,92,342 crores
 Telecom Rs.94,319
 Roads Rs. 99,038
GDP of 34 countries of OECD
24/8/11
 Year GDP
 Q4 2009 -0.9
 Q1 2010 2.5
 Q2 2010 3.3
 Q3 2010 3.3
 Q4 2010 3.0
 Q1 2011 2.4
 Q2 2011 1.6
Million job but no takers (25/8/11)
 Defense 1,88,224
 Faculty and Researchers 17,739
 Police force 5,30,580
 Field Investigators 1,300
 Doctor and medical staff 1,78,801
 National Rural and Health Mission
1,48,361
 Income tax department 16,331
Capital Goods stock Bargain
Hunting (25/8/11)
 Company Current PE 5 year Avg PE
 ABB 145 43
 BHEL 14 29
 BEML 12 18
 Bharat Elec 14 16
 Crompton 12 20.9
 L & T 24 23.6
 Siemens 32 33.1
 Thermax 15 32.2
Gross NPA Sector Wise (25/8/11)
 Unsecured and student loans 4.96
 MSME loans 4.24
 Auto loans 4.01
 Agri loans 3.74
 Asset Finance 3.26
 Home loans 2.23
 Corporate & Institutional 1.52
 Loan against security 0.30
Japan downgraded from Aa2 to
Aa3 (25/8/11)
 Moody has downgraded Japan economy
 Real GDP
 June 2011 -1.0 %
 Mar 2011 -1.0 %
 Dec 2010 2.1 %
 Sept 2010 5.0 %
Japan to fight rising yen (25/8/11)
 Govt to release Forex Reserve to Japan
Bank for International Cooperation
(JBIC) for funding to aid exporters
 Japan has $ 1.1 trillion in forex reserves

Gold loses its Sheen (26/8/11)
 Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised its
margin after gold reached $1910 ounce
 Minimum cash deposit to trade gold rise
27 % ti $ 9450
 Maintenance margin increased to $ 7000
from $ 5500
 Shangai gold exchange also raised the
margins
Countries Contribution in World
GDP (%) (29/8/11)
 USA 23.1 Russia 2.3
 China 9.3 Italy 3.3
 Japan 8.7 Others 35.1
 Germany 5.2
 France 4.1
 UK 3.6
 India 2.7
 Canada 2.5
LIC and IIFCL to join (29/8/11)
 Infrastrcture in 12th
five year plan $ 1 trillion
required
 The propose venture will allow LIC and IIFCL to
buy out 40 % of bank loan with each taking 20
% exposure
 This releases banks fund and removes risk
from banks
 This method is different from take out finance
where only IIFCL is involved
 IIFCL has Rs. 8000 idle cash to buy bank loans
RBI opens window for New banks
(30/8/11)
 Paid up capital Rs. 500 crores
 Listing within 2 years
 25 % banks branches in rural areas for
financial inclusion
 No foreign entity/NRI can hold more than
5 %
 10 year successful business track record
 Sound credential and integrity
RBI opens window for New banks
(30/8/11)
 Total foreign holding cannot cross 49 %
 Broking and Real estate companies
mostly out of race
 RBI to have last and final decision
KS Oil – Commodity Death
(30/8/11)
 KS oil market cap Rs. 2600 crore last
year now only Rs. 406 crore
 Company may become take over target
 Started in 1985 by Ramesh Garg from
local farm to plantations in South East
Asia
 Edelwiss sold shares of Garg as he
could not pay margin
KS Oil – Commodity Death
(30/8/11)
 Mastard seeds prices went up 19 % from
October and December 2009
 March 2010 when crop arrived prices
crashed 30 % to Rs. 24,400 per tonne.
An then fell to Rs. 23,700 per ton.
KS Oil – Commodity Death
(30/8/11)
 March 11 March 10
Ch(%)
 Net sales 4681 4091
14.41
 PBDIT 534 462
15.52
 Tax Provi 65 40
64.44
 PAT 176 212
-16.67
 His ownership has fall from 16 % to 8 %
Suzlon Turnaround (30/8/11)
 June 2011 it got profit of Rs. 60 crores
vs loss of Rs. 900 crores in June 10
quarter
 Order book of Rs. 29000 crores
 62 % of order book is from RE Power
books
Suzlon Turnaround (30/8/11)
 Suzlon ready to buy 5 % remaining stake
in RE Power for Rs. 398 crores
 Suzlon gave -27 % return while sensex –
12 %
 Total debt at Rs. 12,500 crores
 Cash balance of Rs. 3000 crores
Usha Throat Recommendations –
NBFC Tighter Rules (30/8/11)
 Higher capital adquacy norms at 12 %
 New NBFC should have Minimum asset
size of Rs. 50 crores
 It should not be from Real estate and
capital market company
 In June 2011, banks exposure to NBFC
is Rs. 1,69,000 crores which is 50 % of
its total lending which is risky
Top 10 NBFC (Asset wise Rs.
crore) (30/8/11)
 Shriram Transport 24,786
 M&M Finance 12,165
 Sundaram Finance 11,479
 Cholamandalam 9,017
 Shriram City 8,539
 Bajaj Finance 8,066
 SREI Infra 7,482
 Manapuram Finance 7,577
 Magma Fincorp 5,130
 First Leasing 1,297
Gold imports surge (5/9/11)
 Gold Imports was 458 tonnes in 2009
but increased to 918 tonnes in 2010
 Household financial saving as % of GDP
was 12.1 % in 2009-10 but decreased to
9.7 % in 2010-2011
Gold Imports double in last five
years for India (5/9/11)
 Year $ billion % of GDP
 2006-07 14.47 1.5
 2007-08 16.60 1.4
 2008-09 20.43 1.6
 2009-10 28.81 2.1
 2010-11 33.95 2.0
US Unemployment more
Serious (7/9/11)
 Unemployment in US was 6 % in 2007
when the crisis had started
 Currently it is 9.8 % which is more than
earlier which is more dangerous
Ethanol Production (7/9/11)
 Ethanol is produced from Molases which
is by product of sugar cane when it is
crushed.
 Companies want Rs. 35 per litre
 Govt willing to pay Rs. 27 per liter
 Cost of production was earlier Rs. 20 per
litre
Indian Investors invest huge
abroad (7/9/11)
 Corporate investment abroad is $5.5
billion as compared to $ 2.98 billion year
ago.
 Individuals invested $ 64 million
overseas as compared $ 62 million year
ago
PMI shows clear slow down
 Indian PMI falls to 53.8 from 58.2 in
August
 China PMI falls to 50.6 shows
contraction is on way
 17 Member EURO zone also PMI at two
year low at 51.5
IIP falls (13/9/11) and Inflation
soars
 IIP data falls from 6.6 % to 3.3% which
shows severe slowdown in the economy
 Inflation went up to 9.78 % from 9.22%
which is again very risky
 Both the indicators would show the
slowdown in the economy
Mantra for Success(9/9/11)
 Ambition is a must have, but don’t let it
hurt those around you – Adil Zainulbhai
MD McKinsey India
 There is no need to hide your failure but
you do need to flaunt what you have
learnt from it – Harsh mariwala MD
marico
 Intellect is good but combine with
HUMILITY and You have unbeatable
combination – Nitin Paranjpe CEO HUL
Mantra for Success (9/9/11)
 Generalist are OK, but leaders do need
to have a clearly defined area of
extraordinary COMPETENCE – Pramod
Bhasin VC Genpact
 Think SOCIETY and not just business –
Kalpana Morparia CEO JP Morgan India
India to topple Japan as 3rd
largest economy (20/9/11)
 Japan GDP $ 4.31 trillion
 India has reached $ 4.06 trillion
 This is as per PPP (Purchasing power
parity theory) which uses crude measure
of purchasing one burger at any place in
the world.
 In rupee terms India still is only $ 1
trillion economy
US to tax Rich persons
(20/9/11)
 Warren Buffet Income $ 46 million
 Tax rate at 17.7 %
 His Secretary Income $ 60,000
 Tax Rate 30 %
SEBI for MF NFO (20/9/11)
 For NFO Equity schemes the minimum
amount Rs. 10 crores
 For non Equity funds, the minimum
amount is now Rs. 20 crores
Real PE Factor for any firm is
People (20/9/11)
 People is the only PE factor capable of
creating value for itself and unleashing
value from the other factor
 Key No. 1 Unique value proposition and
market competitive total reward package
to get best “talent”
 Key no 2 Build flexible culture with non-
negotiable ethical values
Real PE Factor for any firm is
People (20/9/11)
 Key No.3 Give customers desired value
for money
 Key No.4 Short term focus should not
eat away long term profits
Position of women’s in
Corporate world (21/9/11)
 Nandeni Sethuraman – Head Marketing
Bharti Walmart jointed sep 2011
 Geetu Varma Head, food, HUL, Sep
2011
 Anjali Mohanty, Head, Global
Transaction Banking, Deutsche Bank,
Sep 2011
 Anupama Ahluwalia, Head, Marketing,
Coca Cola India, June 2011
BRIC Statistics (21/9/11)
 Country Current Account Deficit
 2010 2011
 China 5.3 4
 India -2.6 -2.8
 Russia 4.8 4.5
 Brazil -2.3 -2.3
Currency Position vs Dollar Dec
2010 to Sep 2011(21/9/11)
 Currency Apprec/Deprec
 India -6.2
 Vietnamese Dong -6.4
 Taiwan Dollar -1.6
 Hong kong dollar -0.3
 Japanese Yen 5.9
 Newzealand Dollar 5.2
 Australian Dollar 0.6
India Fiscal Deficit worrying
(21/9/11)
 April July 2011 fiscal deficit is Rs.
2,28,000 crores which is already 55 % of
Rs.4,12,000 crores budgeted for year
 Last year same period it was Rs.90,900
crores only
 FII have withdrawn $ 1.2 Billion in
August and in 2011 net investment is
only $ 4.4 billion as compared to $21.8
billion last year.
Short term rates in BRIC
(21/9/11)
 Country Rates (%)
 China 3.22
 India 8.25
 Russia 8.25
 Brazil 12
Euro Nations debt (26/9/11)
 Debt to GDP Ratio (%)
 Greece 144.0
 Germany 78.7
 France 83.5
 UK 76.5
 Italy debt is higher than the combined of
Portugal, Ireland,Spain
STT may Cut (27/9/11)
 STT introduced in 2004
 Earlier was 0.15 % then reduced to
0.125 % on both buyer and seller for
delivery base trade
 0.025 % for intraday and applicable only
to sellers
BRICS to take on Developed 5
(3/10/11)
 % contribution to world GDP in 1995 of
developed countries was 44.6% which is
now 31.6 % in 2015 while BRICS
increased from 15.8 % to 30.3 % in 2015
 BRICS now account for 16 % of global
exports – almost 3 folds rise in last 15
years
BRICS to take on Developed 5
(3/10/11)
 In 1995 % contribution to world exports
of developed countries reduced from
40.5 % to 27.8% in 2010 and those of
BRICS increased from 6.5 % to 16.3 %
 % contribution to Global Portfolio Equity
flows in 1995 63.3% reduced to 27.4 %
for Developed countries while for BRICS
it increased from 5.8 % to 14.6%
FDI inflows ($ billion)
 Year $ billion
 2006-07 22.8
 2007-08 34.8
 2008-09 37.8
 2009-10 37.8
 2010-11 27.0
 2011-12(April-Aug) 17.4
Indian companies sit on Cash
Pile (17/10/11)
 Company FY08 FY11
 Coal India 20961 45862
 Reliance Ind. 4474 30192
 ONGC 25055 28688
 NTPC 15360 17859
 SAIL 13933 17747
 Tata Steel 4231 10892
GDP and Inflation (24/10/11)
 Governor Time Inflation GDP
 Venkitaraman 90-92 12.7 3.9
 C Rangaranjan92-97 6.6 6.3
 Bimal Jalan 97-2003 4.7 5.7
 YV Reddy 2003-08 5.9 8.5
 D Subbarao 2008 7.2 7.8
NFO Euphoria turns into Gloom (All funds launched in 2006
Rs. Crores (24/10/2011)
 Fund NFO Collection Current AUM
 Reliance Equity 5790 1215
 SBI Blue-chip 2850 752
 UTI leadership 2025 667
 SBI One India 1854 523
 UTI Contra 1145 165
 Tatacapitalbuilder 268 109
 LIC Nomura Vision253 48
World PMI decreases in October
2011 (2/11/2011)
 Country PMI Sep PMI Oct
 China 51.2 50.4
 US 51.6 50.8
 UK 50.8 47.4
 India 50.4 52.0
Power Sector Loans sticky
(2/11/2011)
 Total lending to sector Rs.4,80,000 crores
 Loans at Risk Rs. 56,000 crores
 Banks Exposure
 SBI 36,914
 ICICI 37,223
 Axis Bank 17,110
 PNB 6,706
 Union Bank 11,902
Indian Corporate Earnings
down (21/11/2011)
 Sales up 14.3 % lowest in 7 quarters
 Operating profit up 4 % lowest in last 2
years
 Net profit down by 34.9% biggest fall in 8
quarters
 Operating margins14 1.% lowest in 10
quarter
World In MESS(24/11/2011)
 China PMI to 48
 US Economy to have 2 % GDP in 2012
as compared to 2.5 % earlier.
 Germany banks fail in Bond Auction
 Out of $ 8 billion, 6 billion funded by
Central bank other banks gave only $ 3
billion
 US fails to cut deficit of $ 2.2 trillion
Indian Economy Troubled
 High inflation around 10 %
 Rupee Depreciating 52.18
 New Pension scheme has violated
investment norms (Corpus of Rs. 9500
crores) of 26 lakh govt employees
Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) (Reading above 100
indicates over valued vice versa
 36 basket 6 basket
 April 11 104.94 116.48
 May 103.03 115.46
 June 103.82 115.21
 July 104.94 116.83
 Aug 102.93 114.64
 Sep 100.13 111.46
 Oct 11 NA 106.65
Retail loans (7/12/2011)
 Retails loans portfolio
 ICICI bank 40 %
 HDFC bank 50 %
 Axis bank 21 %
 Axis bank plans to increase to 30 %
 Current retail loan book at Rs.29,300
crores
Jim O Neill – founder of BRIC
word (7/12/2011)
 “India should not raise people hope
about FDI and then in week say “We are
only joking”
 “India inability to raise its share of global
FDI is very disappointing”
Rating of EuroZOne
(7/12/2011)
 Country Outlook
 Austria AAA –ve Solvenia AA -ve
 France AAA –ve Slovakia A+ -ve
 Finland AAA-ve Malta A -ve
 Germany AAA-ve Italy A -ve
 Netherland AAA –ve Ireland BBB+ -ve
 Luxemberg AAA –ve Cyprus BBB+ -ve
 Belgium AA –ve Portugal BBB- -ve
 Greece Cc -ve
 Rating below BBB- are considered as JUNK
Subsidy Shoots up (8/12/2011)
 Fertilizer subsidy to shoot up target by
Rs. 40,000 crores
 Food Subsidy pegged at Rs.60,753
crores will also overshoot
 Total subsidy could be around Rs.
1,00,000 crores which would widen fiscal
deficit by 5.7 % of GDP.
Global Carbon Emissions rise
 Global 5.9 %
 China 10.4 %
 Brazil 11.6 %
 South korea 9.2 %
 India 9.4 %
 USA 4.0 %
 9.14 billion tonnes of total Co2 pumped into air
 510 million was extra, largest % rise since 2003
 US is world second largest emitter of
greenhouse gases after China
Trade deficit with China
(9/12/2011)
 Total Bilateral trade of india with china is
$ 63 billion in 2010-2011
 India imports from China $ 43 billion
 Currently 26 % of total imports from
China
 Next five years Chinese imports could
touch 75 %
 Risky for india as we have strained
relationship
PSU Banks on hiring spree
(9/12/2011)
 Allahbad Bank 2200
 Bank of baroda 4000
 Bank of maharashtra 1870
 PNB 10500
 Uco Bank 2100
 Union Bank 10000
Food inflation falls (9/12/2011)
 Food inflation at 6.6% from 19.1 on
1.1.2011
 Food articles have 14.3 % weightage in
wholesale price index
Gold Loans soar to Rs.55000
crores (13/12/2011)
 Year Loans against gold (Rs. Crores)
 FY02 2500
 FY07 12000
 FY09 25000
 FY10 37500
 FY11 50000
 FY12 55000
 Interest rates on gold at 12% to 24 % while
personal loans it is 36%
Rupee impact on Economic
(14/12/2011)
 Rupee slides negates 11 % decline in
crude prices
 Imports $352 billion to get costlier
 Government subsidy bill to rise further
 Interest cost to go up further with foreign
borrowing
% change in currency of major
countries(14/12/2011)
 Country % change vs Dollar
 India -21 %
 Euro -9 %
 Japan -1 %
 Brazil -18%
 China + 1%
 Russia -15%
 Malaysia -8%
Losses of Sensex & Nifty
(13/12/2011)
 Sensex -21.5 %
 Nifty -24 %
 RIL -28.5 %
 Infosys -21.5 %
Consumption to GDP
(12/12/2011)
 Consumption to GDP of China is 33 %
 Consumption to GDP – USA is 70 %
 Consumption to GDP – india is 60 %
Foreign Borrowings hurting
(Rs crores)
 Foreign currency loan total loan
 Rel com 20351 34896
 IOC 18074 73296
 Tata Steel 14464 28716
 HPCL 13687 31253
 BPCL 10698 24734
 NTPC 9334 47461
 AbanOffshore 8258 13425
IT sector creates more jobs
(26/12/2011)
 Company FY06 FY11 Net add
 TCS 111407 198614 87207
 Infosys 44658 130820 86162
 Wipro 53742 122385 68643
 Tata Steel 38182 81251 43069
 HDFC Bank 14878 55752 40874
 Tata Motors 22349 53151 30802
 SBI 198774 222933 24159
Services vs manufacturing
(26/12/2011)
 Only 12% of total jobs are created by
manufacturing sector
 Proportion of service sector jobs in total
headcount rose to 46.5% in FY11 from
41.8% in FY06
Tata Steel Strength
(29/12/2011)
 Tata steel contributes $ 27 billion to total Tata
of $ 83 billion
 Tata steel has operations in 26 countries
spread across 5 continents
 67% of tata steel revenue is international
 2005 Tata steel acquired South East Asia
based Natsteel
 2007 Tata steel acquired Corus worth $ 12.2
billion along with 41000 Non Indian workers
BSE NSE cash volume
crashes (3/1/2012)
 Period 16-31 Dec Volume
 2007 26239
 2008 14263
 2009 17246
 2010 15034
 2011 9911
IPO in mess (3/1/2012)
 39 firms raised Rs. 14021 crores in 2011
 In 2010, firms raised Rs.69,112 crores
Borrowing cost rise for G7
(4/1/12) ($ billion)
 The maturing debt burden of G7 and
BRIC has balloned by $200 billion in
2012
 Japan 3000 Brazil 169
 US 2783 UK 165
 Italy 428 China 121
 France 367 India 57
 Germany 285 Russia 13
 Canada 211
Ageing BRICs to limit world
growth to 4.3 % this decade
(4/1/12)
 46% increase in people aged 65 + in
BRIC by 2020
 61 Million decrease in age group 15-24
years by 2030 in China
 China factory output to be hit hard
 BRIC account for 25 % for world GDP
Forex losses looms large
(5/1/12)
 Company Forex loss % of PBT
 Renuka sugar 464 203
 Ranbaxy lab 498 150
 JSW Energy 78 81
 Tata Power 717 70
 Usha martin 120 70
 Essar oil 469 69
Cash market volumes on BSE
and NSE (5/1/12)
 Year BSE NSE Total
 2006 969860 1916227 2886087
 2007 1414723 3093928 4508705
 2008 1324051 3188510 4512562
 2009 1273964 3812031 5085996
 2010 1193205 3657521 4850726
 2011 693317 2762867 3456185
Sebi fines Rs.60 lakhs on
Ranbaxy Ex-Independent Director
for insider trading
 Solrex had invested Rs. 200 crores in
Orchid Chemicals.
 V K kaul and his wife Bala kaul knew this
information and purchased shares
between March 31,2008 and April
11,2008.
 In June 2010, SEBI had fined Rs. 1 crore
Manmohan shetty, former MD of Adlabs
for selling shares.
Govt to come with Auction of
shares (5/1/12)
 Company Govt holding
 Hindustan Copper 99.59
 MMTC 99.33
 HMT 98.88
 National Fertiliser 97.64
 RCF 92.50
 STCI 91.02
ECB cash averts funding crisis
in Europe (6/1/12)
 ECB has given banks $636 billion of
three year loans
 Two year Italian yields are down 50 bps
 Belgian notes also down by 22 bps
Trading volumes drop 34 %
worst in world (6/1/12 Mint)
 Country Avg Daily trading %ch in last
 (Million shares) 3 years
 US 12468 -26.3
 China 173218 45.7
 Japan 48902 33.2
 Uk 2260 5.2
 Canada 381 -19.3
 France 160 11.1
Trading volumes drop 34 %
worst in world (6/1/12 Mint)
 Country Avg Daily trading %ch in last
 (Million shares) 3 years
 Germany 539 16.8
 Brazil 11317 -20.2
 Australia 2523 14.5
 Switzerland 57 -17.6
 India 872 -34.4
 South Korea 3537 -27.2
Asset class returns (6/1/12)
Mint
 Nifty -24.62%
 Cash 3.79 % (Saving Bank )
 Debt 8.24 %
 Gold 31.72 %
KFA turns NPA (6/1/12) Mint
 KFA total debt Rs. 6000 crores
 Banks loan includes
 SBI Rs. 1457 Crores
 IDBI Rs. 727 Crores
 PNB Rs. 710 Crores
 Bank of India Rs. 575 Crores
 Bank of Baroda Rs. 537 crores.
 KFA reported net loss Rs. 469 crores for july
sept 2011 quarter.
US Auto makers post best annual
sales since 2008 (6/1/12) (Million
units)
 Company Sales in US % chg YOY
 GM 2.5 13
 Chrysler 1.4 26
 Ford 2.1 11
 Honda 1.15 -6.80
 Toyota 1.7 -6.70
 Nissan 1.04 15
 Hyundai 0.6 20
Key factors for poor markets
 In 2010, FII put in record $ 29 billion
 In 2011, FII net sellers to tune of $ 380
million
 Sep
Jobless rates in EU (9/1/12)
 Company % unemployment
 Austria 4.0
 Germany 5.5
 Crez Rup 6.7
 Sweden 7.4
 UK 8.3
 Italy 8.6
 France 9.8
Jobless rates in EU (9/1/12)
 Company % unemployment
 Poland 10.0
 Hungary 10.7
 Ireland 14.6
 Greece 18.8
 Spain 22.9
US Economy improving
(9/1/12)
 US share in global exports rising from
low of 8 % in 2008.
 FDI inflow in US have picked and are
currently 1.5 % of US GDP compared to
mere 0.5 % share in 2002
 US current account deficit has reduced
from 7 % of GDP at height of US
consumption boom in 2007 to 3 % now.
US Economy improving
(9/1/12)
 For China pay and benefits between
2005 and 2010 rose 19 % annually for
average factory worked in China while
cost of employing US labour increased
by only 4 %.
 BCG estimates that by 2015
manufacturing in US will be just as
economical as China for many goods
made for North America consumers
US Economy improving
(9/1/12)
 US has become self sufficient energy
from low of 68 % in 2005 to now 78 % in
overall energy requirement
 Between 1991 and 2001, greenback
appreciated by more than 30% on trade
weighted and inflation adjusted basis.
Valuation of Stock Exchanges
(10/1/12)
 Chicago Mercantile Exchange valued at $ 16.30
billion
 NYSE Euro next is $ 6.8 billion
 Singapore Exchange valued at $ 6.6 billion
 Johannesburg Stock is valued at Rand 6.2
billion
 London stock Exchange valued at 2.2 billion
pound
 NSE $ 3.5 billion but BSE less than $ 1 billion
New Investments at 5 year low
(11/1/12)
 Year Govt Invest Pvt lnvest Total
 2010 7.39 11.49 18.88
 2011 4.43 6.03 10.46
 % chg -40.04 -47.79 -44.57
%Decline in 2011 vs 2010
(11/1/12)
 Approvals % Decline
 CCEA 47.62
 CCI 59.26
 Ports 90.91
 Roads 54.05
 6 lane highways 30.28
 Communication & It 66.67
FCCB Bomb ticking (17/1/12)
 Indian corporate have to repay $ 7 billion
worth of FCCB on March 2013.
 Rcom ($ 925 million)
 Orchid chemical ($ 175 million)
 JSW Steel ($ 274 million)
 Sterling Biotech ($ 250 million)
Slowing Economy (17/1/12)
 Period GDP%
 Sep 2010 8.9
 Dec 2010 8.4
 March 2011 7.8
 June 2011 7.7
 Sep 2011 6.9
Indian will do well (18/1/12)
 Real GDP per person change from 2007
to 2012 (forecast) % is that Indian will be
better off than their counterparts in
Britain, US, France and Japan.
 For India the rise is 34 % while for China
is 50 %
US spends on Credit Cards
(18/1/12)
 In Nov 2011, Americans spend $ 5.6
billion on Credit Cards Debt
 Total credit card debt in the country now
stands at $ 798 billion
Insurance Claim Settlement
(18/1/12)
 Company Ratio % Claim pending %
 LIC 97.03 1.46
 HDFC 95.41 0.61
 Birla 94.66 0.35
 ICICI 94.61 2.25
 ING Vysya 90.49 5.19
 Overall Pvt 86.05 5.01
 Sector
Non core Biz come to Brokers
Aid (18/1/12)
 Distribtuion & Wealth Mgt (Rs.Crore)
 2007-08 1510
 2008-09 1340
 2009-10 1280
 2010-11 1590
Non core Biz come to Brokers
Aid (18/1/12)
 Profit from fees basedbusiness(Rs.crore)
 2007-08 3070
 2008-09 670
 2009-10 2190
 2010-11 1670
 2011-12E 400-450
 2012-13E 500-550
UN says India to shine in
2012(18/1/12)(GDP %)
 Country 2011 2012
2013
 India 7.6 7.7 7.9
 China 9.3 8.7 8.5
 EU 1.6 0.7 1.7
 USA 1.7 1.5 2.0
 World 2.8 2.6 3.2
 Even in worst case scenario India GDP
to be 6.7 in 2012 and 6.9 in 2013
Life Insurance Premium falls
first time in decade (18/1/12)
 Year Pre (Rs.Crore) % fall or gain
 06-07 61354 98.84
 07-08 78502 27.95
 08-09 69364 -11.64
 09-10 81690 17.77
 10-11 82294 0.74
 11-12 62428(Apr-Nov)
HNI Portfolio (19/1/12)
 Asia Pacific reports from Merrill Lynch
and Capgemini HNI wealth in india grew
by 22% in 2009-10
 India HNI population grew from 1.27 lakh
to 1.53 lakh
HNI Portfolio (19/1/12)
 HNI Portfolio % of assets
 Cash 6
 Equities 36
 Real Estate 23
 Fixed Income 26
 Cash/deposits
 Alternative asset 9
Implied volatility &
Nifty(19/1/12)
 Year Nifty IV
 Dec 2008 10.3 -22
 Jan 09 -5.23 1.84
 Dec 09 1.54 -8.29
 Jan 10 -6.69 10.53
 Dec 10 2.91 -13.75
 Jan 11 -10.58 37.79
 Dec 11 -6.33 8.35
 Jan 12 7.13 -17.87
Reliance Buy Back (19/1/12)
 SEBI guidelines allows companies to
buy back shares upto 10 % of paid up
capital and reserves without
shareholders approval.
 With shareholders approval 25 %
 In 2005 RIL announced buy back of Rs.
3000 crores but actually bought only Rs.
150 crre
Reliance Buy Back (19/1/12)
 Current laws ensure that company
spends atleast 25 % of announced offer
size that too within 35-45 days
 RIL has cash balance of Rs.61490
crores as on Sep 30, 2011
Mutual funds deals (20/1/12)
 Natrix Global Asset Mgmt bought 25 %
in IDFC MF for 5.5% of its AUM in Dec
2010
 Japan Normura bought a stake in LIC
MF for about 2.5 %
 T Row acquired 26% strategic stake in
UTI AMC for 3.6%of AUM in 2010
 IDFC bough Stancharts for 5.7 % of
AUM in 2009
Mutual funds deals (20/1/12)
 Eton Park capital paid 13 % of AUM for 5
% stake in Reliance Mutual fund in 2007
 Nippon life Buys 26 % in Reliance capital
for Rs. 1450 crore valuing 6.8% of AUM
largest ever MF deal by foreign firm
AUM of top 5 MF (20/1/12)
(Rs.Crores)
 Mutual Funds AUM
 HDFC mutual fund 88628
 Reliance mutual fund 82305
 ICICI Prudential 69367
 Birla Sun Life 60377
 UTI Mutual Fund 57817
Real Estate on Hiring Spree
(23/1/12)
 985 milion square feet of residential
space is due for delivery between 2011
& 2013
 In 2008-10 the delivery was only of 522
million square feet.
 20% rise in total number of new hiring
Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) gives $
1 billion to 5 fund houses (23/1/12)
 KIA has given $ 1 billion to 5 local
Mutual funds in India
 Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund
 DSP Black Rock
 ICICI Prudential
 Canara Robeco Mutual Fund
 Franklin Templeton
 Each MF has been allocated $ 200
million
FII control Sensex(24/1/12)
 Country FII $ million % chg index
 India -358 -24.64
 Taiwan -9074 -20.61
 Japan -323 -17.34
 Korea -8584 -10.98
 Thailand -167 -0.72
 Indonesia 2950 3.19
 Philipines 1329 4.06
Stocks Responsible for
Sensex Crash (24/1/12)
 Company Points fall %chg FII Holding
 RIL -858 -0.59
 LNT -699 -2.76
 ICICI -691 -4.49
 SBI -445 -5.48
 Tata Steel -266 -3.13
 BHEL -253 -1.76
 Hindalco -228 -3.25
Stocks Responsible for
Sensex Crash (24/1/12)
 Company Points fall %chg FII Holding
 Sterlite Ind -192 -1.79
 Tata Motors -188 -0.08
 Jindal Steel -143 -2.47
 15 stocks accounted for 85 % fall in
Sensex. As on Dec 2011 india has 3000
actively traded shares while Korea 1816,
Taiwan 824, Thailand 545 and Indonesia
440.
Large buyback by Global Energy majors from
2007 to 2010 (24.1.12)
 Company Backbuy($ billion)
 Exxon mobil 100
 Conoco Phillips 19
 Chevron 13.5
 BP 9.6
 Shell 7.9
 BASF 3.5
 RIL 2.1
Consumption story (30/1/12)
(million units)
 Particulars Total Urban% Rural%
 TV 122 47 53
 2wheeler 42.5 51 49
 Fridge 39.7 68 32
 Washer 14.2 82 18
 Car 5.6 73 27
 PC 5.4 84 16
 AC 2.8 93 7
FDI flows rise (30/1/12)
 FDI flows from january 2011 to Nov 2011
increased by 25 %
 Brazil saw rise of 48 %
 Total FDI in india $ 50 billion
 FDI created 2.16 lakhs jobs
 Technology had maximum 146 projects
and growth of 51 % in value of FDI
Infra companies had huge
debt (30/1/12)
 From 2007 to 2011debt increased
 GMR 6.7 times
 BGR Energy 5.4 times
 IVRCL 5.4 times
 GVK 3.59 times
 Jaypee Infratech 31 times
Unemployment at record high
in EU (1/2/12)
 Country Under 25 age% Overall %
 Spain 48.7 22.9
 Greece 47.2 19.2
 Portugal 30.8 13.6
 Italy 31.0 8.9
 Ireland 29.0 14.5
 France 23.8 9.9
 UK 22.3 8.4
 Germany 7.8 5.5
 Eurozone 10.4 EU 9.9
CASA Account (1/2/12)
 Bank CASA % of total Deposit
 IndusInd Bank 26.52
 Yes Bank 28
 Kotak Bank 28
 ICICI 43.6
 HDFC 47.7
 Axis Bank 42
 Bank of India 32.41
Sensex best since 1994 Jan
(2/2/12)
 January 2012 saw sensex giving return
of 11.3 %
 FII bought close to Rs. 11000 crores of
shares
 PMI increased to 57.5 from 54.2 in
December 2011
Jan 2012 has good data
(7/2/2012)
 Rupee gain 7.45 % in Jan highest in 17
years
 Sensex up 11.3% in Jan highest in 18
years
 RBI cuts CRR from 6 % to 5.5%
 Inflation falls to 7.5 % in Dec from 9.1%
in November, food inflation in negative
Jan 2012 has good consumer
durable data (7/2/12)
 Fiat panel TV sales up 50%
 Tablets sales up 40 %
 Smartphones 8 to 9 %
 Laptops and Desktops 5-6%
 Apparel 10 %
PE invest in water business
(7/2/2012)
 Company PE fund Rs. Crore Invest
 Vishwa Infra IFC 26
 Pratibha indus Sequoia 3
 Waterlife india matrix partner 22
 Greywater Tech Nexus venture 9
 Vishwa Infra Olympus 240
 SMS Paryavaran Aditya Birla 40
 Neela Systems Vinod Khosla 64
Airlines to import fuel directly
(8/2/2012)
 Rs 2500 crores saving for Airlines
industry
 Direct import would cost 4-5 % less of
total amount currently paid
 Fuel cost account for 40 % of the total
operational cost
FII bet on Corporate
Governance (9/2/2012)
 FII Promoter Return in
2012
 IVRCL 37.1 11.2 96.1
 Ktak bank 20.4 0.0 56.8
 NCC 42.7 19.5 54.4
 IIFL 40.1 31.6 52.6
 IDFC 45.8 0.0 51.0
 Indiacement 27 25.8 45.5
FII bet on Corporate
Governance (9/2/2012)
 FII Promoter Return in
2012
 LIC Hou 40.1 36.5 248.5
 Hexaware 41.4 28.2 147.3
 Indusindbank 34.7 19.5 139.7
 Dr.Reddy 27.2 25.6 120.4
 ITC 16.3 0.0 94.3
Bharti Airtel Net profit down 22
% (9/2/2012)
 Net profit down 22 % to Rs. 1011 crores
 ARPU fell 6% from Rs. 199 to Rs. 187
 Loss from African operations Rs.260
crores from Rs. 525 crores last year
RBI increases Bank rate to 9.5
% (14/2/2012)
 RBI has increased bank rate to 9.5 %
 Change has been made after 2003
 Currently it was 6 %
 The rationale it has to be more than
Marginal Adjust Facility which is 1 %
more than Repo Rate (8.5 %)
Interest cost growth lowers
(13/2/2012)(Int.Coverage Ratio)
 Sector ICR (times) Sector ICR (times)
 Infra 1.45 Pharma 8.56
 Retail 2.77 Cement 13.49
Steel 3.03 Infotech 29.00
 Power 3.82 Auto 33.13
 Real Estate 5.59 FMCG 47.80
 Telecom 6.11
 Capital goods 7.94 Overall 7.57
Interest cost Growth lower in
Dec quarter (13/2/2012)
 India Inc Interest expenses grew 42%
YOY
 Lower than Sep quarter 55 % growth
 Due to rates peak out
Best 10 year SIP returns
(13/2/2012)
 Mutual Fund SIP 10 year return(%)
 Reliance Growth 26.86
 DSPBR Equity 25.48
 HDFC top 200 25.18
 Magnum Global 24.92
 HDFC Equity 24.89
 Magnum Contra 24.38
 HDFC Growth 23.11
Best 10 year SIP returns
(13/2/2012)
 Mutual Fund SIP 10 year return(%)
 Magnum Multiplier plus 22.91
 Franklin India Bluechip 22.10
 Franklin India Prima Plus 21.97
SBI back on track (14/2/2012)
 Particulars Rs crore
 Net profit 3263
 Total Interest income 27661
 Total deposits 10,00,965
 Net NPA 2.22%
 Gross NPA 4.05%
Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal steet page 86 feb 2012)
 In 2007 Rs. 11250 crores vs Rs.40095 crores in
2012 spend in NREGA
 Guaranted 100 working days in a year
 Agricuture wages in last 3 years have gone up
by 105 %
 46 % of household consuption goes on food
 High wages, farm labour cost and shortages
rise which forces govt to raise procurement
price.
Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86
 Public Money being wasted
 Angaluru village in krishna district in AP
 1000 families and 800 registered under
NREGA
 100 days at Rs 100 per day
 80000 man days of useful work in a year
is impossible in a village
Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86
 Agricultural wages labour have gone up
by 2.5 times
 Agriculture becoming unviable
 Farmers sell land as one acre bring Rs.
10 to 15 lakhs
 Money put in FD gives Rs.130000
 But cultivating land gives only Rs.
100000
 So no incentive for cultivation
Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86
 We are promoting dependency and
idleness and destroying work ethic by
promoting instead a welfare ethic
 The easily obtained money is spend on
liquor
 Rs. 15000 crore worth of liquor being
sold in Andhra Pradesh every year
Interesting Data (Dalal street
pg 58 Feb 2012
 241 million people would be added to working
population between 2010 to 2030
 35 Million people are employed directly in textile
industry
 Textile is second to agriculture
 Textile industry contributes 14 % to Indian
industrial production and 4 % to GDP
 PSU banks have Rs. 10,000 crores exposure to
the telecom companies of which Rs. 7500
crores is secured against assets.
India Imports from GULF
(29/2/2012) (Million Metric tonnes)
 Country 2009-10 2010-11
 Saudi Arabia 27.18 27.36
 Iran 21.19 18.49
 Iraq 14.96 17.15
 UAE 11.60 14.70
 Kuwait 11.79 11.49
 Qatar 5.41 5.60
 Oman 5.39 5.42
Economy crawls at 6.1% slowest in 3 years
(1/3/2012)
 In Q3 GDP growth at 6.1%
 In last quarter that is Q2 it was 6.9%
 Sectors Q 2 Q3
 Agriculture 3.2 2.7
 Manufacturing 2.7 0.4
 Services 9.3 8.9
BSE shares rise due to
MCX(1/3/2012)
 BSE shares now are at Rs. 180
 In Dec 2011 they were at Rs. 140
 BSE brokers were given 10,000 shares
at Rs. 1 each
 They were purchased back at Rs. 5200
 Then 12:1 bonus was given which took
the value to Rs. 400 per share
 Book value of one BSE share is Rs. 205
Structured Products (1/3/2012)
 Karvy Private Wealth managed Rs. 21,387 crore allotted
to them in 2011
 Capital Guarantee
 2 to 3 years lock in
 Case:- Rs. 100, maturity 2 years. Rs 85 invested in FD
and Rs. 15 in shares
 AT 8 % Rs.16 would be earned in 2 years which makes
85 + 16 = Rs. 100 as principal
 Now Rs. 15 in equities say gives 100 % return then Rs.
30 out of it
 So total return Rs. 30 + 100 = 130 which means 30%
return in 2 years which is fair enough with capital
guarantee.
Nifty PE cheaper than peers
(1/3/2012)
 Index Current PE FY13 PE
 Japan Nikki 25.43 15.04
 US Nasdaq 24.18 13.46
 Korea Kospi 21.63 8.56
 Taiwan TWSE 19.16 12.99
 India Nifty 15.14 13.35
 China Shcomp 12.75 8.59
 Germany DAX 11.74 9.59
Nifty PE cheaper than peers
(1/3/2012)
 Index Current PE FY13 PE
 Brazil IBOV 11.47 9.41
 UK FTSE 11.24 9.57
 France CAC 10.84 9.11
 Hong Kong 10.03 9.86
 Singapore 8.58 12.56
 Russia RTSI 5.87 5.91
Corporate Bribes in US Rise
(12/3/2012)
 $ 1 trillion paid in bribes annually to
governments officials
 78 corporations under investigation in
USA
 Violation of Foreign Corrupt Practice Act
which is 35 years old
 Pfizer, Goldmansach, HP,Wal Mart
RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis
points (9/3/2012)
 RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis points.
 New CRR is at 4.75 %
 It would release Rs. 48000 crores into
system.
 Earlier CRR cut of 50 basis points had
injected Rs.32000 crores
 Totally Rs. 80,000 crores
MNC Arms valued more than
parent (14/3/2012)
 Indian PE ROE(%)
 Astrazeneca 90.3 49.8
 Novartis India 15.7 33.8
 Kennametal India 26.0 43.0
 Honeywell Auto 24.3 28.6
 3M India 63.0 30.1
 Blue Dart 37.8 28.2
 Oracle Fin Ser 19.7 25.7
MNC Arms valued more than
parent (14/3/2012)
 Parent PE ROE (%)
 Astrazeneca PLC 6.2 43
 Novartis India AG 14.3 14.1
 Kennametal India 12.2 15.6
 Honeywell Int 13.6 19.3
 3M Co 14.7 27.6
 Deutsche Post AG 14.4 27.2
 Oracle Corp 15.7 24.2
First SME listed on
BSE(14/3/2012)
 BCB finance first company to list on BSE
SME
 It raised Rs 8.85 crores
 Issued 35.4 lakh shares
 Shares were priced at Rs.25 but it got
listed at Rs. 27 (gain of 8%)
Govt Borrowing in Fiscal 2012
 The Govt had initially targeted borrowing
of Rs.4,17,128 crores
 Rs. 5,10,000 crores is actual borrowing
done
IIP Growth surprises in Jan
2012 (13/3/2012)
 Month IIP (%)
 July 2011 3.6
 Aug 2011 3.4
 Sep 2011 2.5
 Oct 2011 -5.0
 Nov 2011 5.9
 Dec 2011 2.5
 Jan 2012 6.8
Pharma sector on
Tenterhooks(15/3/2012)
 Indian pharma market worth Rs. 60,000 crores
 15 % growth of industry for last many years
 Foreign markets growing single digit
 Natco pharma allowed to sell cancer drug at 3
% of Bayer price which is too low
 Foreign MNC not happy with allowing
manufacturing and selling low cost version of
cancer drug at fraction of price charged by
patent holder Germany Bayer AG
Reduced Poverty numbers
(20/3/2012)
 In 2005 population 1140 million & in 2010 it is
1225 million
 In 2004-05 no of people below poverty line
407.2 million and in 2009-10 it is 354.7 million
 Villages see drop from 37% to 30% in 5 years
 GDP in 2004-05 7%, 2005-06 9.5%, 2006-07
9.5%, 2007-08 9.7%, 2008-09 6.5%, 2009-10
8.4%
HCC on verge of NPA
(20/3/2012)
 Rs. 8100 crore debt
 Rs. 3000 crore loans needs to be restructured
 27 lenders including SBI, PNB trying to
persuade HCC to pay
 Rs. 90 crore interest payment lenders want
from HCC by March 31 to maintain its “standard
status”
 Rs.134 crore loss HCC posted in Dec 2011
 Rs. 1.5 lakh crore loans likely to be restructured
in Indian banking system this fiscal.
 Lavasa project has also slowed down
Inequality increases Gini
Coefficient (22/3/2012)
 States 2004-05 2009-10
 All India 0.35 0.37
 Maharashtra 0.35 0.38
 Gujarat 0.30 0.31
 Jammu kashmir 0.24 0.31
 Punjab 0.32 0.36
 Assam 0.30 0.33
 Rajasthan 0.30 0.32
Inflation Index (22/3/12) Mint
 Particulars Weight age
 Food, beverages,tobacco 50 %
 Fuel & light 9%
 Housing 10%
 Clothing,bedding,footwear 5%
 Miscellaneous 26%
Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012)
Mint
 Year Int.as % of Net Sales
 March 2010 6.50
 Sep 2010 8.78
 March 2011 8.01
 Sep 2011 10.62
Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012)
Mint
 Year Int Coverage Ratio
 March 2010 4.85
 Sep 2010 3.87
 March 2011 3.45
 Sep 2011 2.80
Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012)
Mint
 Year Debt Equity Ratio
 March 2010 5.31
 Sep 2010 8.53
 March 2011 9.73
 Sep 2011 10.10
Mahindra Satyam Deal
(22/2/2012)
 Strength of Combined Entity
 Valuation of Mahindra Satyam $ 1.8 billion
 $ 2.4 billion revenue
 75000 employees
 350 clients
 $ 3.1 billion market cap
 2 shares of Tech Mahindra shares to be
swapped for 17 shares of Mahindra Satyam
Mahindra Satyam Deal
(Rs.crore) (22/2/2012)
 Satyam Tech Mah
Combine
 Net sales 6105 5332 11437
 PBIT 751 777 1529
 PAT 444 670 1115
 Oper margin 12.3 14.6 13.4
 Reserves 4358 3682 8041
RBI Tightens Norms for Gold
loan NBFCs (22/3/2012)
 RBI has directed that companies having
half their assets in gold should have
minimum CAR of 12% Tier I by April
2014
 Companies cannot lend more than 60%
of value of gold jewellery
PE firms Big losses on Dalal
Street (26/3/2012)
 Company Time Price CMP Loss
 Punj Lloyd Aug07 275 55 -80%
 NCC Aug07 202 50 -75%
 Golandas Aug07 275 75 -73%
 Welspun Corp June11 225 144 -36%
 IDFC July10 176 135 -23%
 Max India Dec 10 183 171 -7%
GAAR Scares Market
(27/3/2012)
 GAAR (General Anti Avoidance Rule)
 Aims to tax
 FII coming through Mauritius
 Participatory Notes (P-Notes)
 It may overrule the DTAA (Double Tax
Avoidance Treaty)
Sovereign Wealth Funds
(28/3/2012)
 Fund $ Billion
 Abudhabi Investment 627
 Norway Govt Pension 611
 China SAFE Investment 568
 Saudi Arabia SAMA 533
 China Investment Corp 439
 Kuwait Investment Authority 296
 HK Monetary Authority 293
 Govt of Singapore 247
 Temasek Holdings 157
 Russia National Welfare fund 149
ELSS outperforms traditional
tax savers (28/3/2012)
 ELSS has given 26 % return in last 10
years and 22 % return in last 3 years
 Average inflation in last 10 years is
6.05%
 PPF has given 8.10 % in last 10 years
 NSC has given 9.10 % in last 10 years
BRICS Shining (29/3/2012)
 Share of BRICS in world GDP
 Year % share
 2000 8.4
 2010 18.2
 2016(Est) 23.8
 Source IMF
BRICS Shining (29/3/2012
 Countrywise share in world GDP
 Country % share
 India 2.6
 Brazil 3.3
 China 9.3
 Russia 2.4
 South Africa 0.6
BRICS Shining (29/3/2012
 BRICS share in Global Exports
 2000 It was 6.9%
 2010 it was 16.3 %
 BRICS share in FDI Attraction
 2000 it was 5.3%
 2010 it was 17.8%
SEBI norms for listing Stock
Exchanges (3/4/2012)
 Bourses must separate regulatory and business
roles before listing
 Listing will take place 3 years after SEBI nod
 SE have to set up Independent Clearing
Corporation & transfer 25% of profit to
Settlement Guarantee Fund
 No single investor should hold more than 5 % in
SE
 Exchange, Depository, Insurance cos, banks,
public financial institutions to hold up to 15 %
US Improving but Europe in
mess (3/4/2012)
 US Factory employment index rose in
March 2012 to 56.1 from 53.2
 Country Unemployment
 Spain 23.6%
 Greece 21%
 Portugal 15%
 Ireland 14.7%
 Austria 4.2%
US Back on Track (4/4/2012)
 In 2011, US household consumption was
$ 10.7 trillion
 70 % of GDP of US goes into Household
consumption
 China size in 2011 was $ 7 trillion
 Unemployment rate down at 8.3 %
MF Return and their Standard
Deviations (9/4/2012)
 Funds 1year SD 3year SD 5year SD
 Small/Mid -0.65 21 31 28 7.93 32
 CNXmidcap-4.09 25 31 30 9.72 35
 Large cap -7.28 19 22 25 7.25 29
 BSE100 -9.23 21 22 27 6.83 31
 Sensex -10.5 20 21 26 5.89 30
Close loss making urban bank
branches (9/4/2012)
 India has 60,153 ATM
 41 % owned by State Run Banks
 ATM viable only if 200 transactions per
day is there
 Private sector bank becomes profitable
within 10 to 12 months of its operations
 Finance Ministry requires Rs. 3.5 lakh
crore over next 10 years to capitalise
state run banks
Close loss making urban bank
branches (9/4/2012)
 74000 total branches are there in India
 20 % are in Rural India
 Only 5 % of 6 lakh villages in india have
branches (5 % of 6,00,000 = 30000)
 SBI alone has 16294 ATM
Cheap Swiss Loans for Indian
firms (10/4/2012)
 Indian firms have raised debt at below 9
% in Switzerland including hedging cost
 Local lenders in India would give at 11.5
% to 12%
 Hedging cost in Swiss franc is about
10% to 15 % lower than US dollar
Cheap Swiss Loans for Indian
firms (10/4/2012)
 Company $ million Swiss franc
 SBI 325
 REC 200
 EXIM Bank 175
 Union Bank 160
 IDBI 110
China Surprises with Trade
Surplus (11/4/2012)
 Feb 2012 Trade deficit of $ 31.5 billion
 March 2012 Trade surplus of $ 5.35 billion
 Exports to US 10.4 % up
 Exports to EU 3.1 % down
 Year Trade surplus
 2008 $ 296
 2009 $ 196
 2010 $ 183
 2011 $ 155
SEBI new rule creates
problems for PE(11/4/2012)
 Alternative Investment Funds (AIF)
cannot raise fresh funds unless
registered with SEBI
 Already PE firms are in midst of raising
Rs. 26000 crores
 In 2012 till March 2012 No. of PE funds
15 raised $ 2.23 billion
 PE real estate funds 9 and raised $ 3.01
billion
SEBI new rule creates
problems for PE(11/4/2012)
 New AIF rules mandate that investors
should minimum invest Rs. 1 crore
 Not more than 1000 investors should be
there
 Private Equity Fund Manager should
contribute minimum 2.5 % of total corpus
India Current Account Deficit
threatens (11/4/2012)
 Current Account Deficit 4.3 % of GDP
 Current Account Deficit should not be more
than 3 %
 In 1991 crisis CAD had touched 4 %
 1991 government had depreciated rupee by 24
% in 3 days
 Borrowed $ 2.2 billion from IMF
 Pledged 67 tonnes to gold with Bank of
England and Swizz Bank to raise $ 600 million
as foreign flows had dried up.
India per capita income
(16/4/2012)
 India is above $ 1175 per capita income
cut off for consessional IDA funds
 2010 per capital GNI (In $)
 Bangladesh 700
 India 1330
 Pakistan 1050
 Vietnam 1160
FII holding in FMCG
(16/4/2012)
 Company Mar12 Mar11 % rise
 Colgate 20.20 18.72 1.48
 Dabur 18.42 17.22 1.20
 Godrej 25.31 19.48 5.83
 HUL 19.43 17.26 2.17
 ITC 17.40 14.04 3.36
 Nestle 11.03 10.55 0.48
 Tata Global 9.87 8.04 1.83
 GSKconsumer 15.50 12.08 3.42
India to increase IMF
quota(23/4/2012)
 India quota at IMF would increase from
2.44% to 2.75% after completion of
quota reforms
 In absolute terms, india quota would
increase from SDR(Special Drawing
Rights) 5821 million to SDR 13114
million
Indian bond market attractive
for FII (23/4/2012) (rs.crore)
 Year FII Debt
 2007 9428
 2008 11772
 2009 4563
 2010 46408
 2011 20292
 2012 19213 (april 2012)
 FII can invest $ 15 billion in Govt Bond
 FII can invest $ 20 billion in Corp Bond
 Corp bond in US give 1.95% and Germany 1.85 % while
in India it is 9.6 %
 Indian Govt Bonds yield is 8.2 %
Reliance Result (23/4/2012)
 Net Profit down 21 % to Rs. 4236 crores
 Revenues up 16 % to Rs. 87000 crores
 Oil and gas revenues fell 36.5%
 refining and petrochemical segments rose
17.7% and 14%
 Oil & Gas
Net sales Rs12898 crore versus Rs 17250
crore, down 25.2% YoY
 EBIT margin: 40.7% versus 36.8%, y-o-y
 EBIT margin 3.3% versus 4.3%
GRM $8.6/bbl versus $8.4/bbl
Entry load in MF needed
(25/4/2012)
 Only 200 distributors have gross revenue of Rs.
1 crore
 Out of this 200, 20 are banks and institutions
 16000 odd active distributors only 185 IFA are
earning Rs. 1 crore gross revenue
 In Singapore front load is 3% and expense ratio
is 2.5 %
 Investors there pay in excess of 5 % to fund
managers
India to get higher IMF quota
(26/4/2012)
 India will pay Rs. 56,469 crores total for higher quota at
IMF
 Cash Rs. 14,346 crores
 Rs. 42,123 crores in local currency bonds
 Current Proposed
 Quota
 2.44 % 2.75%
 Vote
 2.34% 2.69%
 Quotas are assigned on basis of country relative position
in world economy. India will be among top 10 countries in
terms of quota
FDI Flows (26/4/2012)
 Year Rs. Crores
 2005-06 24,584
 2006-07 56,390
 2007-08 98,642
 2008-09 1,42,829
 2009-10 1,23,120
 2010-11 88,520
 2011-12 1,33,181
China one child policy
hurting ? (27/4/2012)
 China has currently 120 million people between
20 and 24 years age
 This would drop by 20 % in next decade
 1979 china put one child policy
 China population will peak at 1.4 billion in 2030
 US couples have average 2 children
 US and Europe took 100 years to become
aging societies, China has taken less than 40
years to become aging society
Mutual funds lose 8 lakh
Equity folios (2/4/2012)
 From Arpil 2011 to march 2012 over 8 lakh
mutual fund equity folios have closed
 AUM bifurcation (Rs. 5,87,000 crores)
 Banks/ FI 2.3 %
 Corporates 43.1%
 FII 0.7%
 HNI 26.6%
 Retail 27.4 %
GDP Growth Result of luck or
efforts ? (27/4/2012)(Moneycontrol)
 from 1985-86 to 1990-91, the economy grew by an average of 5.6 percent. In
the next six years (1991-92 to 1996-97), which included the glory years of
Manmohan Singh’s reforms, we grew by all of 5.7 percent. In other words, by
just 0.1 percent more, despite the big-bang reforms.
 In the six years after that (1997-98 to 2002-03, which covers the second half of
the United Front government and most of the NDA), the economy actually
tapered down to an average of 5.23 percent, before finally taking off by an
average of 8.45 in the next eight years.
 The rebound in the economy that started in the last year of the NDA (2003-04)
continued till 2010-11 – a full eight years – with a strong dip in 2008-09 during
the Lehman crisis.
 What this suggests is that it is the 2003-11 period that was the aberration, and
not the earlier periods, when we were doing 5-6 percent after reforms. Thus we
could revert to this mean if we don’t reform aggressively now. But even if we
do reform, we are likely to see a growth slowdown over the next three-to-five
years because reform, by definition, means the system will have to adjust to
new shocks. Shocks initially bring growth down: in the year after
Manmohan Singh’s reforms, India’s GDP growth in 1991-92 crashed to 1.4
percent before rebounding to 5.4 percent.
FCCB Woes for Indian
companies (2/5/2012)
 Company Issued Outstand Maturity
 Tata steel 875 382 5sep 12
 Tata motors 490 473 12July 12
 JP Associate 400 354 12sep 12
 JSW steel 325 274 28Jun 12
 Suzlon Energy 300 211 12Jun 12
10 Top countries with highest
gold reserves (2/5/2012)
 Country Tonnes % of ForexRes
 US 8133 77.1
 Germany 3396 74
 IMF 2814 --
 Italy 2451 73.8
 France 2435 73.3
 China 1054 1.8
 Switzerland 1040 18.6
 Russia 879 9.7
 Japan 765 3.3
 Netherlands 612 62.5
 Source:- World Gold Council
BASEL III Norms (4/5/2012)
 Basel III are guidelines framed by a committee
of central banks that s based in Basel,
Switzerland. RBI is also member of that
committee.
 Basel III has introduced many elements of
capital such as clearly defined common capital
that measures core equity capital in relation to
its total risk weighted assets
 Incremental equity requirement in Indian
banking industry may go up as high as Rs.3.2 –
4 Trillion over next 6 years
BASEL III Norms (4/5/2012)
 Banks to maintain minimum 5.5 % in common
equity as against 3.6% now by March 31, 2015
 Banks must create a capital conservation buffer
consisting of common equity of 2.5% by March
31, 2018
 Banks should maintain a minimum overall
capital adequacy ratio of 11.5% against 9 % by
March 31, 2018
 Banks must supplement risk based captial ratio
by maintaining leverage ratio of 4.5%
Reliance Fined Rs. 6600
crores (4/5/2012)
 Year Planned output Actual
 2009-10 27.62 39.31
 2010-11 53.40 48.13
 2011-12 61.88 38.61
 2012-13 80.00 20.20
 2013-14 80.00 14.00
 Output fell as RIL did not drill wells as per
Amended Initial Development Plan (AIDP)
 RIL says drilling more well would not have
helped due to unexpected geological
complexitites
PE and P/BV of Blue Chip Stocks
(capital market April 2012) page 8
 Company Debt/Equity PE P/BV
 RIL 0.5 12 1.6
 Tata Steel 1.9 5.0 1.3
 Rcom 0.8 23.3 0.4
 ICICI Bank 0.0 16.2 1.8
 L&T 1.3 18.7 3.2
 DLF 0.8 25.1 1.4
 Suzlon 1.8 16.5 0.6
 JP Associat 3.5 22.3 1.6
Infrastructure Sector (capital
market page 11 april 2012)
 Rs. 50 lakh crore in 12th
Five year plan (2012-2017)
 Half to come from private sector
 Investment in infrastructure was 5.7% of GDP in Eleventh
five year plan and now it is 8% in last year of 12th
Five
year plan.
 FII investment limit in govt bonds, corp bonds increased
from $ 5 billion to $ 20 billion in govt bonds and $ 25
billion in corp bonds
 Withdrawal tax on interest payment has been reduced
from 20 % to 5 % for 3 years
 Investment linked deduction for capital expenditure
increased at 150 % from 100% cold chain, warehouse,
hospitals, fertilizer, affordable housing.
Debentures trading at discount to face value
(capital market page 81 april 2012)
 Company Rate (%) MP Rating
 Shiram tran 11.35 995 AA+
 Muthoot Fin 12.25 977 AA-
 IndiaInfoline 11.70 952 AA-
 Religare Finv 12.25 983 AA-
 FV Rs. 1000.
Equity for all (8/5/2012)
 Equity as an asset class has grown to
nearly $ 55 trillion at end of 2010
 This is near to 87 % of world GDP
 India has 1.5 crore individuals out of 2.5
crores tax payees
 Even if 1 crore invest Rs. 50,000 in Rajiv
Gandhi Equity scheme the corpus
comes to be Rs. 50,000 crore
 This can act as counter force to FII
Equity for all (8/5/2012)
 Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme
 France adopted this strategy in Loi Monory
scheme in late 1970
 In five years household investment in France in
equities increased from 7 % to 17%
 Germany, Belgium and Sweden also copied
this scheme with good results
 In Sweden one sixth of population was
converted into investors in equity.
World Biggest companies
(10/5/2012) ($ billion)
 Company Sales Market value
 Exon Mobil 433.5 407.4
 JPMorgan Chase 110.8 170.1
 General Electric 147.3 213.7
 Royal Dutch Shell 470.2 227.6
 ICBC 82.6 237.4
 HSBC Holding 102 164.3
 PetroChina 310.1 294.7
 Berkshire Hathway 143.7 202.2
 Wells Fargo 87.6 178.8
 Petrobras Brasil 145.9 180.0
Mumbai Home Prices
(14/5/2012)
 Avg price per square feet (Rs)
 June 2008 8100
 June 2009 5600
 March 2012 10833
 Total unsold stock is 120.42 million
square feet. At current absorption rate, it
could take 40 months to get rid of this
inventory
Mumbai Home Prices
(14/5/2012)
 No of months needed to sell Inventory
(2011-12)
 Q1 40
 Q2 36
 Q3 44
 Q4 40
 Sales are up 3 % from year ago and 20
% since last quarter
Inflation rises (14/5/2012)
 Inflation spiked to 7.23% on the back of
higher manufacturing and food inflation.
Analysts on average had expected it
around 6.7%.
Sensex 1986 to 2012
(17/5/2012)
 Event Year High Low
 Harshad scam 92 4487 2131
 Dotcom Bust 2000 5934 3181
 Global melt 2008 20827 8966
 Euro 2010 20852
15175
Sensex 1986 to 2012
(17/5/2012)
 Year Min Ret Max Ret prob of loss
 1 year -25.3 % 84.5% 25.8%
 2 year -15.4% 66.1% 20.0%
 3 year -11.7% 58.3% 6.9%
 5 year -3.4% 44.8% 7.0%
 10 year 1 % 31.1% 0.0%
Spain again into Recession
(18/5/2012)
 Spain has again slipped into recession
 It has go offer 5 % to attract buyers with
year of 5.106 % vs 3.374 % for 3 year
bonds
Rupee vs IT sector
(18/5/2012)
 1 % fall in rupee results in 30-40 basis
point rise in operating margins
 Out of $ 100 billion export revenue of IT
and BPO of Indian sector, 58 % was
from US.
Gold demand in China more
than India (18/5/2012)
 India gold demand at 207.6 tonnes
 China gold demand at 255 tonnes
 Gold ETF have grown 3 times in last one
year
 AUM of Gold ETF is Rs. 9614 crore in
January 2012 vs Rs 3518 crores in
January 2011
PE/VC Investment in
Healthcare (18/5/2012)
 In Care Hospitals – Advent India PE
invested Rs. 560 crores
 In Vasan Healthcare – Govt of
Singapore investment corp invested Rs.
543 crores
 Moolchand healthcare – Seqola Capital
invested Rs. 100 crores
 Wellspring Healthcare – Reliance
venture capital invested Rs. 20.5 crores
Foreign claims on India $ 137
billion due in 1 year (18/5/2012)
 As per Bank for International Settlement, claim
due on india in next one year is $ 137 billion
 Currently india has $ 293 billion forex reserves
 European banks account for 40 % of India total
foreign dues
 Leaving UK out, India Euro Zone exposure is
about $ 60 billion which is 3.4 % of India GDP
Face book IPO big hit
(19/5/2012)
 the company's closely watched stock began
trading at USD 42.05,
compared with an IPO price of USD 38 .
 USD 18.4 billion in one of the biggest initial
public offerings in US history.
 With a value of USD 104 billion, Facebook
became the first American company to debut at
over a USD 100 billion. It is larger than
Starbucks Corp and Hewlett-Packard
combined.
 The website, founded in a Harvard dorm room
in 2004, has grown into the world's dominant
social network with 900 million users.
Facebook highly overvalued
(21/5/2012)
 PE for face book is at 108
 PE for market in US 14
 PE for Google is 18
 Price to Sales Facebook 26
 Price to Sales LinkedIn 17
 Google makes $ 35 for each user which
is 7 times more than Facebook
Black Money – A Hype
(22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)
 Indian deposits in Swiss Banks
 Year ExRate Liability % of
 towardIndian total Liabi
 2010 47.79 9295 0.13
 2009 45.19 8879 0.13
 2008 45.52 10924 0.12
 2007 34.79 14979 0.18
 2006 36.17 23373 0.29
Black Money – A Hype
(22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)
 FDI Inflows (2001 to 2011)
 Mauritius 41.80% Japan 4.07%
 Singapore 9.17% Cyprus 3.71%
 USA 7.28% Germany
2.31%
 UK 5.12% France
1.75%
 Netherland 4.39% UAE 1.46%
Black Money – A Hype
(22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)
 Swiss bank liability towards countries in
2010
 Foreigners hold More Money
 Offshore financial centre 28.9%
 UK 21.5%
 USA 15.8%
 European countries 6.8%
 Germany 3.6%
Corporate Debt Restructuring
becomes more strict (22/5/2012)
 CDR is a platform where lenders and corporates meet to
restructure loan
 Objective is to ensure that company does enter financial
trap
 Company promoters misuse company funds and then go
to CDR
 Banks now to hike promoter contribution to 20-25 % and
seek personal guarantee
 Banks to have power to change incompetent
management if found diversion of funds or misuse of
funds
 Banks have to restructure loans worth Rs. 1,50,000
crores
India still better than world
(23/5/2012)
 GDP 2011 2012 2013
 USA 1.7 2.4 2.6
 UK 0.7 0.5 1.9
 Eurozone 1.5 -0.1 0.9
 OECD 1.8 1.6 2.2
 China 9.2 8.3 9.3
 India 7.3 7.1 7.7
IPO fails (30/5/2012)
 Year IPO % Sensex%
 3 years -18.69 4.71
 1 year -18.59 -10.12
 6 months 1.79 1.54
Venture Funding picking up
(31/5/2012)
 From January to May 2012 64 new start
up got Rs. 1351 crores of venture
funding
 In 2011, funding in first time ventures
crossed $ 1 billion mark
GDP at 9 year low (31/5/2012)
 GDP at 5.3 % which is at 9 year low
 India’s economy grew 5.3% during
January-March (Q4), the eighth
successive quarterly decline, and the
slowest pace in nine years. For the full
year, the economy grew 6.5%.
 India's fiscal deficit during the 2011-12
fiscal year that ended in March was Rs
5,20,000 crore, or equivalent to 5.9% of
India's gross domestic product
Why buy gold ? (4/6/2012)
 35 % buy for auspicious events like
marriage,
 20 % buy as investment
 16% buy as back up for bad times
 15 % buy for giving gifts
 8% impulses or no reason
 6% Fond of gold
Eurozone revamp (4/6/2012)
 July 9 is the deadline for creating
Permanent Euro Area Rescue fund, the
$ 620 billion European Stability
Mechanism
Indian Inc Improving but slowly
(4/6/2012)
 Analysis of 2302 companies in march 2012
 Revenue increased by 13.5% yoy
 Net Profit fall 8 % in March 2012 as compared
to 20.6 % in Dec 2011 and 37.9% in Sep 2011
 Operating Profit margin at 14.3 %
 Interest cost jumped to 47.4% to Rs.30,123
crores is at record high in history of Indian Inc.
 Interest Coverage Ratio is at 3.8 vs 3.4 which is
heartening (ICR should go up)
FII net sellers in May
(7/6/2012)
 FII were net sellers to the tune of Rs.
1100 crores in May
 FII confidence low as policy paralysis
hitting all reforms
 Month FII flows (Rs.Crores)
 Jan-Feb + 44000 crores
 March + 8000 crores
 April - 777 crores
 May - 1100 crores
China cuts rate (8/6/2012)
 China has cut one year deposit rate from
3.5 % to 3.25 %
 Lending rate cut from 6.56 % to 6.31%
 Rate cut after 2008 to boost economy
Active managed funds create
wealth (11/6/2012)
 Fund 5 years return %
 IDFC premier equity 15.31
 UTI opportunities 12.69
 ING Vysya Dividend yield 12.16
 Birla Sun life Dividend yield 11.92
 UTI MNC 11.78
 Birla Sun life MNC 11.70
 Tata Dividend Yield 11.45
 UTI Dividend yield 11.42
 ICIC Pru Discovery fund 11.13
 HDFC Top 200 10.12
 Canara Robeco Equity 10.16
 NIFTY INDEX 3.54%
Years of NIL return from Indexes
world over (11/6/2012)
 Country Years with NIL return
 Japan Nikki 225 29.3
 Spain IBEX 35 15.12
 France CAC 40 14.95
 UK FTSE 100 14.45
 Germany DAX 13.95
 US Nasdaq 12.95
 Russia Micex 6.36
 US Dow Jones 5.53
 China Shangai 5.53
 Brazil 5.03
 India Sensex 4.78
 From 1992 to 2003 Sensex actually reduced by 33 % i.e long
holding of 11 years
FII no and sub accounts
(11/6/2012)
 As on June 8, the number of registered
FIIs in the country stood at 1,754 and
total number of sub-accounts were 6,343
during the same period.
Gold Prices reality (14/6/2012)
 In FY 2011-12, India imported $ 56 billion worth
of Gold
 August 1, 2011 gold was $ 1621 per ounce
 June 8, 2012 gold was $ 1571 per ounce
 Loss of 3 %
 But during the same period Rupee depreciated
from Rs. 44.07 to 55.62 per USD
 Rupee fell by 26.19 %
 Gold during period rise from Rs.23150 to Rs.
29680 per 10 grams
PE Struggle to Exit broking
houses (15/6/2012) ($ million)
 Company PE Stake
Amt
 Prime Security Newvernon 6.8 12.4
 Bonanza Gaja capital 11.6 5.94
 Karvy Baring Asia
 ICIC venture 40 110
 Angel IFC 12.5 37
 PL Balyasny 2.8 10
 JRG Baring India 45.9 35
 Anandrathi Citi 19.83 20
Motilal Oswal raises Rs. 475
crores for 2nd
PE fund (20/6/2012)
 Motilal Oswal has raised Rs. 475 crores
 Out of 475 crores – Rs. 100 crores from
Hong kong based Sqandran Capital
Advisor
 Remaining Rs. 375 crore from HNI
investors
“Rcom poster boy for everything
that could go wrong” (20/6/2012)
 Neeraj Monga of Veritas Investment Research believes
various mergers and amalgamations have led to the Rs
22,000 crore “inflated book equity” of
Reliance Communications
 The stock is trading at Rs 60. So the market doesn’t
really believe in the book value of the company. We’ve
just come out and said it very clearly,” he claims.
 In its June 8 report, the Canada-based equity research
had assigned a value of Rs 15 to the stock of Anil
Ambani-promoted telecom firm, citing high debt,
"whimsical" accounting policies and poor corporate
governance standards as the key reasons.
India contributes to IMF war
chest (21/6/2012)
 Country Contribution to IMF
 India $ 10 billion
 Brazil $ 10 billion
 Russia $ 10 billion
 China $ 43 billion
 South Africa $ 2 billion
 IMF will issue bonds and pay interest to
countries. This is war chest that IMF has made
which has $ 456 billion but target is to create $
550 billion
Electricity shortfall (21/6/2012)
 Region Installed Supply Shortfall
 North 49919 39798 10121
 West 57108 46330 10778
 South 39645 32763 6882
 East 29802 21057 8745
 N East 2095 1697 399
 This reduces industrial production and adds to
idle capacity causing losses to companies
 Figures in Mega watts
Manufacturing slows down
world over (22/6/2012)
 China factory sector shrank for eight
straight month in June
 PMI fall to seven month low of 48.1 in
June from 48.4
 US PMI has come down to 52.9 from
54.0
 10 year Spain and Italy bonds are
quoting 7 % yield showing that attracting
investors is becoming more difficult
Claim Settlement Ratio for
insurance firms (22/6/2012)
 Company Settlement Ratio Pending %
 LIC 97.03 1.46
 HDFC life 95.41 0.61
 Birla sun life 94.66 0.35
 ICICI 94.61 2.25
 ING Vysya 90.49 5.19
 Private Sector
(overall) 86.05 5.01
PMLA getting tough
(22/6/2012)
 69,224 suspicious transactions received
by FIU India
 53,384 reports were forwarded to Law
Enforcement agencies and Intelligence
agency
 Travel agents, vehicle dealers have to
report to FIU Ind for suspicious dealings
Weak show of MF SEBI ask
questions (22/6/2012)
 SEBI planning to call MF fund managers
who have consistently performed badly
 Scheme Return% Benchmark %
 JM Basic -10.30 5.52
 Escorts Power -9.17 -13.05
 JM Core 11 -9.07 5.17
 SBI Infra fund -5.96 5.22
 L&T Infra -5.56 5.87
FCCB Issuers may Default
(22/6/2012)
 3i infotech, Great offshore and Hotel Leela
ventures may default
 48 companies hold FCCB that mature this year
 Value of FCCB maturing this year $ 5 billion of
which $ 2.1 billion will come up for June and
July 2012
 Rupee in 2007-08 Was Rs. 42 per $
 In 2012 it is Rs. 56 per $
 The depreciation could add Rs. 10,000 crore on
redemptions
CCI imposes Rs. 6307 crore fine on 11
cement companies (20/6/2012)
 Company Penalty (Rs. Crore)
 Jaiprakash Asso 1323
 Ultra Tech cement 1175
 Ambuja Cement 1163
 ACC 1147
 Lafarge India 480
 Century Textiles 274
 Madras cement 258
 India cement 187
 Binani cement 167
 JK cement 128
 CMA 0.73
FMC cautions for trade
changes code (26/6/2012)
 Client code modification is done to transfer
trade from one account to another account
 It is mostly done in Jan, Feb and March to avoid
tax
 From October 2011 to march 2012 CCM was
1373 from 1,00,620 in October 2010 to March
2011
 In terms of volume it has reduced from Rs.
25000 crore to Rs. 216 crore
FII power (28/6/2012)
 FII have assets under custody of more
than $ 200 billion
 17 % of market capitalization
 40% of free float shares in Indian stock
market
 FII invested $ 32 billion in Indian debt
market
Bittersweet Ethanol Pricing
(28/6/2012)
 Government has decided Rs. 27 per litre
for ethanol to be sold to oil companies
 Earlier price was Rs. 21 per litre
 Oil companies say that cost of making
petrol is Rs. 23 per litre and paying more
than this for making ethanol will make
blending unviable
On mobile Corporate Governance
issues (29/6/2012)
 KPMG checking Onmobile books for financial
bungling Rs. 3000 crore mkt value in 2008
 Rs. 400 crore current market value
 CEO Arvind Rao who is founder is at center of
investigation for taking away funds
 Again Corporate Governance issue shows that
wealth of shareholders destroyed
 Stock trading at Rs. 33 lowest in lifetime
Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)
 Share of Agri & Allied activity in GDP (%)
 Year %
 1970-71 43.9
 1980-81 38.3
 1990-91 33.0
 2000-01 25.3
 2011-12 16.0
 Store capacity in large dams was 177 billion
cubic meter in 1995 which is currently at 253
billion cubic meter
Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)
 Rainfall % of normal Agri Growth %
 2007-08 106 % 5.5
 2008-09 98% 0.4
 2009-10 78% 1.7
 2010-11 102% 7.0
 2011-12 101% 2.8
Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)
 Monsoon Deviation % Inflation %
 2007-08 6% 4.8%
 2008-09 -2 % 8.0%
 2009-10 -22% 3.6%
 2010-11 2 % 8.6%
 2011-12 1 % 8.8%
Textile sector loan recast
(2/7/2012)
 Textile sector has debt of Rs. 35000
crore
 35 million workers work in textile sector
 The package involves Rs. 22000 crore
term loan, Rs. 5500 crore working capital
loan and Rs. 7500 crore loan for SME
units.
Airlines Industry wants FDI
(3/7/2012)
 Airlines Industry growing at 20 % per
annum
 By 2015, 180 million people in India to
travel by airways
 Indian Aviation sector 9th
largest in world
Barclay CEO Robert Diamond
in LIBOR mess (5/7/2012)
 Robert Diamond the CEO of Barclay
bank has step down
 Barclay has been accused in
manipulating LIBOR which is
international rate for lending and
borrowing.
PE investors invest in real
estate (5/7/2012)
 Target Acquirer RS crore
 Sheth Devel Morgan stanley 461
 3C company Red Fort 150
 RMZ Corp Baring Pvt Equ 500
 Phoenix Ascendas 176
 Suntech Reality Kotak 310
Globally banks cut rates
(6/7/2012)
 ECB cuts rates by 0.25 % which now
bring rate to 0.75 %
 China reduced 1 year lending rates by
31bps and deposit rate by 25 bps
Mumbai real estate slow down
(6/7/2012)
 In Mumbai 80,000 residential units are
unsold
 Value comes to Rs. 1,00,000 crore
 Buyers shun property market due to poor
sentiment and higher Interest rates
Reasons for China
slowdown (9/7/2012)
 China has $ 2.5 trillion forex reserve but household and
corporation debt is 120 % of GDP and including banks it
goes to 200% of GDP
 Real estate bubble as $ 10 trillion is in money circulation
than in US $ 8 trillion
 China has invested 9 % of GDP in real estate which is
now bubble which is even higher than Japan and US
which was real estate bust in 2007
 In last 3 decades research on 124 nations shows that 52
% were democratic and 48 % authoritarian. Political
system does’nt matter for growth
EU stock market return post
Euro introduction (9/7/2012)
 Returns since euro
 launched
 Belgium -37 %
 Finland -8%
 France -20%
 Germany -28%
 Greece -77%
 Ireland -36%
 Italy -58%
 Netherlands -42%
 Portugal -57%
 Spain -42%
MF Distributes commission
despite ban (11/7/2012)
 Top 240 distributors have earned Rs. 1830
crore commission in FY 12
 This is 8 % more than last year
 HSBC, HDFC and Citibank have earned the
most
 30,000 small agents are out of business since
they could not run without commission
 45 % of equity fund sales comes from
Independent Advisors as against 29 % by
banks
Banks mobilize NRE deposits
(11/7/2012)
 Banks mobilize $ 10 billion through NRE
deposits
 Banks are offering 9 % to NRE deposits
for one year
Arbitrage funds score over debt
and equity funds (17/7/2012)
 Arbitrage Funds 1 year return (%)
 IDFC 9.8
 JM 9.4
 UTI spread 9.3
 Reliance arbitrage 9.2
 SBI arbitrage 9.1
 HDFC arbitrage 8.9
 Kotak equity arbitrage 8.9
 Religare arbitrage 8.8
 Debt funds have given avg return of 8.4 % while
equity funds value dipped by 4.1 %
Gold demand rises
(30/7/2012)
 Indian households have $ 950 billion
gold
 US Mine production data
 2010 231 tonnes
 2011 237 tonnes
 US Geelogical survey reports US has
3000 tonnes of Gold reserves
 North America accounted for 16.1 % of
total output in 2011
Gold funds failed as compared
to Gold ETF (30/7/2012)
 Funds One year return %
 SBI Gold ETF 28.04
 Reliance Gold ETF 28.03
 Religare gold ETF 28.01
 UTI gold ETF 27.97
 Quantum gold 27.96
 DSP Blackrock world gold -11.5
 AIG world gold fund -16.5
FII buys in July (30/7/2012)
 During July 3-27, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were
gross buyers of shares worth Rs 44,192 crore, while they sold
equities amounting to Rs 35,768 crore, translating into a net
inflow of Rs 8,424 crore

After taking the latest inflows into account, FIIs investment in
the equity market stood at Rs 50,417 crore so far in 2012 and
Rs 24,048 crore into the debt market during the same period.

As on July 27, the number of registered FIIs in the country stood
at 1,756 and total number of sub-accounts were 6,341 during
the same period.

FII investment in 2012 in Rs.
Crore (2/8/2012)
 Month Net FII Flow
 January 10357
 February 25212
 March 8381
 April -1109
 May -347
 June -501
 July 10271
Proposed STT to hurt market
 AT present investor pays Rs. 100 per
Rs. 1 lakh turnover on delivery base
tranaction
 Rs. 17.33 per lakh on sale of
derivatives.
 Service tax of 12.36%
 This increases the transaction cost
Eye on low tax paying sector
(4/9/2012)
 Corporate tax is 30% but average tax
rate comes to 24 %
 Certain taxes are in range of 10% to
22%
 If the average tax rate is incresed from
24 % to 26% then also govt will get Rs.
30,000 crores
Exports down 35 month low
(4/9/2012)
 For april to july 2012, exports have fallen
by 5% to % 97.6 billion compared with $
102.8 billion las year
 Slow down in exports clear show that
world economy is slowing
PMI data for world (4/9/2012)
 Countries July August
 India 52.9 52.8
 Russia 52.0 51.0
 UK 45.2 49.5
 China 49.3 47.6
 France 43.4 46.0
 Germany 43.0 44.7
 Spain 42.3 44.0
Two wheelers on bumpy road
(6/9/2012)
 Company Fall in sales in August
 Hero Motocorp - 12 %
 Bajaj Auto - 14%
 Hondo motorcycle 39 %
 TVS - 17%
 Suzuki Motorcycle 36 %
 Mahindra - 34 %
MCX-SX, BSE and NSE fees
 MCX-SX NSE BSE
 Admission 5 lac 5 lakh 5000(Eq +FO)
 2.5 lac equity
 Deposit 20 lac 1.5cr 30 lac
 75lac(eq)
 Networth 30lac 1 cr 30lac(Eq)
 75 lac 25lac (FO)
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Current developments in economy

  • 2. Insurance Sector (8/6/11)  3 companies have seen 3 CEO change in 8 years. ICICI,Bajaj, Aviva  14 life insurance companies have less than 1 % market share  Out of 23 private companies only 8 have turned profitable  Only ICICI and SBI Life have 10 % market share
  • 3. Insurance  IRDA has increased lock in period from 3 to 5 years for ULIP  Reduction in charges also creating problems  Break Even has increased from 8-9 years to 10-12years
  • 4. Insurance Market Share  ICICI 6.3 %  SBI Life 6.0 %  HDFC life 3.2 %  Bajaj Allianz 2.8 %  Reliance Life 2.4 %  Birla Sunlife 1.7 %  Max New York 1.6 %  Tata AIG 1.10 %
  • 5. FM Meets FII (8/6/11)  Finance Minister had a close door meeting with 30 FIIs  He assured him about long term growth impact of India
  • 6. Indian Economy Challenges(9/6/11)  GDP forecast reduced to 7.8 %  Revenue collection becoming challenge as corporate profitability goes down  Fiscal Deficit target of 4.6% difficult to achieve  Disinvestment target of Rs. 40,000 crore difficult to achieve as stock market in downtrend
  • 7. Interest Rate problem  RBI had since 2010 raised repo and reverse repo rates ten times to 7.5% and 6.5%, respectively, to control high inflation mainly due to high fuel and commodity prices.  Repo is the rate at which banks borrow money from RBI. Reverse repo is the rate at which banks lend to RBI.
  • 8. Direct Tax vs GDP Growth % (9/6/11)  Year GDP Direct Taxes  2007-08 9.3 34.7  2008-09 6.8 8.1  2009-10 8.0 14.9  2010-11 8.5 19.3
  • 9. US Economy Gloomy (9/6/11)  India has invested $ 39 billion in US Treasuries as on March 31, 2011.  US has deficit of $ 1.4 Trillion this fiscal year.  QE 1 US had injected $ 1 Trillion into US Economy  QE 2 US had injected $ 600 billion into US Economy  Unemployment rate at 9.1 %
  • 10. European Zone Problems  International lenders who bailed out Greece last year with a 110 billion euro (USD 160 billion) loan  GDP to shrink by 3.8% this year and start growing in 2012  Greece's economy shrank far more than expected at the start of 2011, signaling a second wave of austerity measures prescribed by the EU and IMF will pile even more pain on a fractious society
  • 11. NIM for PSU Bank (9/6/11)  Year NIM  92-95 2.72  05-06 2.85  06-07 2.55  07-08 2.15  08-09 2.10  Private sector banks it is as high as 4 to 5%
  • 12. Market Valuation (P.E) (9/6/11)  India Sensex at 14.85  China Sanghai at 12.73  Brazil Boveszpa at 10.04  Russia RTS at 6.74
  • 13. Mutual Funds Industry  Collection in 2010 in NFO less by 57 % from 2009  Only 40 % of AUM is of Equity base and 60 % is of debt  AUM in 2004 was Rs. 1,50,000 crore which went to Rs. 8,00,000 crore in 2007 but then reduced to 6,00,000 in 2008-09  41 Mutual Funds are there in India currently with more than 1000 schemes
  • 14. IIP (10/6/11)  Index of Industrial production (IIP) for the month of April grew at 4.4% - less as compared to growth of 7.3% in previous month, as per old series. As per new series, which have 45% more items than old series, IIP grew at 6.3%.
  • 15. Indirect Tax Increases (13/6/11)  Exercise duty collection, indication of factory production rose 38.4 % to Rs. 11,500 crores  Revenue from Customs rose 37 % to Rs. 25,176 crores  Service tax mop up was 27.6 % higher at 7,722 crores.
  • 16. Financial Inclusion (13/6/11)  Govt and RBI has target to cover 73000 villages having population of more than 2000 by March 2012.  The target is that each of them should have bank account  Direct cash Subsidy can be transferred to these accounts.  Cost of opening an account and maintaining it is Rs. 65
  • 17. Financial Inclusion (13/6/11)  Less than 20 % of such accounts is active even after one year of opening.  Currently only 45 % of population has access to bank account  Low ratio of one bank branch per 16000 people
  • 18. QIP Investment Back Fire (14/6/11)  A QIP helps a listed company to rise capital in the domestic market via equity hares, fully and partly convertible debentures to a buyer of is choice.  SEBI instituted the guidelines for this relatively new financing avenue on May 8, 2006 to reduce dependence on foreign capital.
  • 19. Worst Performing QIPs  QIP Date QIP Price Price  Aksh optifibre Sep 20 6.7  Kiri Industry Nov 598 219  C&C Const Apr 244 92  Ansal Proper Oct 90 41
  • 20. Best Performing QIP  QIP Date QIP Price Price  Exide Indus March 108 156  Tata Motors Oct 764 1013  Shoppers Stop Oct 325 440  Godrej consu July 345 438
  • 21. Inflation Rises (15/6/11)  Inflation rises to 9.06 % from 8.66 % for May 2011  This has again increased the scope for Interest rate rise by RBI  Rise in interest rates slows down the Economy as cost of capital goes up
  • 22. Interest Rates in India  Bank Rate at 6 %  Repo rate is at 8.5 %  Reverse Repo is at 7.5 %  SLR is at 24 %  CRR is at 6 %
  • 23. World Interest Rates  USA 0.25 %  Japan 0 %  Bank of England 1 %  Europe 1.5 %  Australia 2%  China 3.3 %  India average 9 to 10 %
  • 24. China Ups Reserve Ratio by 50 bps (15/6/11)  Inflation in China is at 5.5 % which is 34 months high  It has increase its RRR (Reserve Ratio Requirement) to 21.5 %  China one year lending rate is 6.6% and deposit rate is 3.3%  Hardening of interest rates by China bring down the commodities prices since it is largest consumer of commodities
  • 25. Greece Credit lowest in world (15/6/11)  S & P has lowered the rating of Greece which makes it lowest in the world  It is lower than Pakistan and Ecuador since both these were out of international markets since 2009  Greece was given first bailout package of $ 158 billion
  • 26. Economy finds it tough (16/6/11)  6.3 % IIP in April 2011 compared to 8.8 % in March 2010  Q4 GDP rose only 7.8 % compared with 8.3 % in third quarter  0.4 % Investment Growth in Q4 as against 20 % year earlier  32 % drop in net FDI inflow in 2010  44 % drop in gross FDI inflow in 2010
  • 27. Broking Industry facing tough times (16/6/11)  Company % chg NP  India Info line -8.99  Edelweiss Capital 1.68  Kotak Securities -30.05  Indiabulls securities -43.86  AdityaBirla Money -166.56  Geojit BNP Paribas -38.52
  • 28. Types of PMS (20/6/11)  Fundamental PMS (Multi cap )  Value Investing PMS (long term horizon with small and mid cap stocks)  Quantitative PMS (purely mathematical calculations)  Event Driven PMS (Event base stocks with short term focus)  Mutual Fund PMS (Invest in different schemes of Mutual funds)
  • 29. Gold – Ever Rising Demand (21/6/11)  Gold has given return of 160 % in last 5 years  Nifty has given return of 83 % in last 5 years  Central Banks globally have become net buyers of Gold in 2010 in last 21 years  In 2010, Central Banks bought 76 tonnes of gold
  • 30. Gold – Ever Rising Demand (21/6/11)  In 2011, first 6 months saw Central Banks buying 129 tonnes of gold  In 2005 central banks sold gold worth 674 tonnes  China Forex Reserve has only 1.8 % of its in gold of $ 3 Trillion forex reserve  World average is 11 %  China has to buy 6000 tonnes to reach global average
  • 31. Gold cont ….  Japan gold reserve stands 3.2 % of its total forex reserve of $ 1.14 trillion  India gold reserve is at 8.2 % of $ 300 billion of forex reserve  Supply of gold for last 20 years has increased only by 0.7 % annual rate.
  • 32. Why turnaround in Gold  Over years, Central Banks have had major portion of their reserves in US dollar  Gold is considered as “Store of Wealth”  US economy weakening  More printing of US dollars leads to depreciation in its value  Gold cannot be printed or mined fast, value of currencies is sinking against gold
  • 33. Gold as % of Forex Reserves  Country Gold Tonnes % Res  Singapore 127 2.4  Taiwan 424 4.7  India 558 8.2  Japan 765 3.2  China 1054 1.6
  • 34. Gold Supply Tight  South Africa which produced about 1000 tonnes in 1970 now produced less than 200 tonnes in 2010  Very few large gold mines are expected to come up  Over next five years, only seven gold mines that are capable of producing more than 500 kilo ozones ( 1 0z = 31.1 grams)
  • 35. International Fund (22/6/11)  An international fund is a fund that can invest in companies located anywhere outside its investors country of residence  Feeder funds is one that invest through another fund called the master fund. Its usually launched to beef up the asset base of the master fund
  • 36. Performance of International Fund  Funds 1 Year Return  Fidelity Global Real Asset 19.48  DSPBR World Energy 19.19  DWS Global Agri Fund 18.78  DSPBR world Mining 18.41  Birla Commodity Equities 16.97  Mirae Asset China Advantage 14.15  Principal Global Opportunity 13.91
  • 37. PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11)  Private equity investors are sitting on cash to the tune of $20 billion to enter India  $70-75 bn of private equity (PE) and venture capital investment in India by 2015.  about $22 bn is required for follow-up funding of 660 current PE-funded companies. Then, about 2,000 companies in the IT and IT-enabled services sectors, manufacturing, engineering, construction and healthcare are expected to attract close to $30 bn in new PE and VC investments over the next four years
  • 38. PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11)  The total investment by private equity investors over the last six years is estimated at $50 bn through 1,600 deals  PE investments have grown from $2 bn in 2005 to $19 bn in 2007. Thereafter, investment value fell to around $6.2 bn in 2010, registering a compounded annual growth rate of 25% over the past six years.
  • 39. PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11)  The real estate and property development sector clocked 203 deals worth $13 bn of the total of $50 bn PE investment over the past six years.
  • 40. FCCB Creates problem for Corp India (27/6/11)  Rs. 16000 crore convertible bonds sold by top 500 companies come for repayment by march 2012  Rs.31500 crores worth of bonds due for redemption by March 2013  48% price discount for conversion of Assam company  86% discount to conversion price of RCom  50 % discount to conversion price of Suzlon
  • 41. ULIP Sales fall hurt companies (27/6/11)  LIC new business fall by 8 %  Private life insurers fall by 23 %  ICICI fell by 29 %  HDFC fall by 27 %  Reliance life fell by 52 %  Bajaj fell by 42 %
  • 42. GDP and Capital Investment Correlate (29/6/11)  Year GDP % Capital Contri  2005-06 9.5 % 55  2006-07 9.7 % 56  2007-08 9.2% 72  2008-09 6.7% -10  2009-10 7.4 % 55  2010-1 8.8% 40
  • 43. GDP and Capital Investment Correlate (29/6/11)  Higher GDP Growth requires strong Capital Investments by Corporate sector  Currently due to high interest rates, the capital investment plans have been put on hold by corporate sector
  • 44. NBFC under RBI Scanner (29/6/11)  Around 12630 NBFC are registered with RBI as on June 30, 2010  There are 228 deposit taking NBFC  212 NBFC have CAR of 12 % but RBI wants it to 15 % by March 2012  Banks Credit to NBFC rose 55.7 % in April 2011 from 15 % year ago.
  • 45. China holds Treasury in US (1/7/11)  China holds atleast $ 1.1 trillion investment in US Treasury bills  China accounts for 26 % of total investment in US Treasuries  If china pulls out this investments then interest rates in US could go up fast
  • 46. Young Working Population by 2040 15 to 59 years (1/7/11)  2010 61.8 1980 54.6  2015 62.5 1985 55.3  2020 63.1 1990 55.9  2025 63.5 1995 57.2  2030 63.9 2000 58.6  2035 63.9 2005 60.4  2040 63.4
  • 47. Economy on firm ground (1/7/11)  Core Sector grows 5.4 % in May vs 4.6 % April  8 sector as compared to earlier 6 sectors  Now core sector has 38 % weight age in IIP index as compared to 26 % earlier
  • 48. Indian consumption story to grow 14 % next 3 years (5/7/11)  Consumer durables, automobiles, personal care, food have maximum growth potential in indian markets
  • 49. MNC controls Indian markets  MNC Global Sales %india Rank india  Suzuki $23.6 Billion 23.3 1  Nokia $58.1 Billion 11 1  Unilever $58.7 billion 6.6 1  LG $49.4 billion 5.9 1  Samsung $135.8 billion 2.5 2  Mcdonal $24.1 billion 0.37 1
  • 50. PE Investment Rise, Exist Lag (9/7/11)  January to June 2011 saw Private Equity deals with $ 5.8 billion  Total deals in this period 211  In 2010 there were 154 deals during same period (37 % rise)  Deal values have increased by 34 % compared to same period in 2010  Infrastructure sector had 23 % highest share of total PE funds flowing in
  • 51. Mutual Sitting on Cash % of AUM (15/7/11)  ICICI Prudential Advisor 28.8  ING Optimix Global Commo 18.6  Sahara Super 20 17.9  Axis Midcap 15.4  HSBC Midcap Equity 13.2  IDFC Premier Equity 12.9  Funds need to keep 5 % of AUM as cash to meet day to day redemptions units
  • 52. US Consumption down (18/7/11)  US Consumption in last 14 quarters have gone up only 0.5 %  This is from 2008 starting  Pre 2008 crisis the consumption was 4 % average for last 12 years  That means Q3 again in Question mark ?  Increase debt limit to $ 14.3 trillion  Asian economies have $ 3 trillion in US treasuries.
  • 53. ARCIL Under stress from Large Lenders  Name Rs. Crores  ICICI 9000  SBI 3000  IDBI 2000  PNB 1000  Buying 15 year mortgage assets, overstepping ceiling of 8 year asset
  • 54. Banks aggressive for SIP (22/7/11)  SBI Bank targets 25 lakh SIP till March 2012  Axis Bank targets 5 lakh SIP till March 2012  Overall MF industry from April 2012 to June 2012 had 7 lakh folio closing down  No support from Distributors
  • 55. India in World Trade (22/7/11)  India is among top 20 in exports of goods  India is among top 10 in service exports  Our contribution in world GDP up from 4.6 % in 2000 to 5.4% in 2010  India share in world exports in 2000 was 0.7 % and now in 2010 it is 1.7 %
  • 56. Indian Corporate Results (1/8/11) June quarter  612 companies so far declared results  Sales up 23.5 % vs 18 %  PBDIT up 19.4 % vs 12.5 %  Net Profit 13 % vs 19 %  Interest outgo 19.4 % vs 7.7 %  High interest rates killing Net Profit.
  • 57. US Debt Default (2/8/11)  To raise the current limit of borrowing of $ 14.3 trillion by further $ 2.4 trillion  To cut spending by $ 2.4 trillion in next 10 years  Initial cut spending by $ 917 billion and and another $1.5 trillion by year end  India holds $ 41 billion in Treasury bonds
  • 58. World job cuts (2/8/11)  HSBC to cut 30,000 jobs by 2013. Cost to revenue ratio touched 57.5 % which is more than standard of 48 % to 52 %.  China PMI reduces from 50.7 as compared to 50.9 in June. This index is made by HSBC  India PMI reduces to 53.6 in July from 55.3 in June which is 20 month low
  • 59. Finance Companies to tap bonds from retail investors (2/8/11)  Religare, muthoot and india Infoline to raise Rs. 5000 with average interest of around 12. 5 %
  • 60. Retail Credit Growth (3/8/11)  Retail loan grows at 17 % in June 2011 vs 6.6% in june 2010  Total value Rs. 6,95,000 crores  Home loans account for 3.7 % (Rs. 3,58,000 crores) vs 2 % year ago  Auto loans lowest in 2 years  Maruti – 26 % Hyundai – 11 %  Auto sales leading indicator of demand in the economy
  • 61. Banks in BRIC in Risk  Brazil financial shares have lost as consumer defaults hit 12 month high in june and borrowing cost climbs to 46 %  China bank stocks at lowest level since 2006  Bank of moscow needed the biggest bailout in Russia history last month after racking up 5.4 Billion dollars of unsecured bad loans  China faces risk that 30 % of total loans may go for default
  • 62. Telecom in worst shape (4/8/11)  Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has fallen 12 % in India from Rs. 216 to Rs. 190  Bharti Airtel made loss for 6th straight quarter  Africa also made loss of Rs. 302 crore
  • 63. Debt as % of GDP (4/8/11)  Russia 9 % Ireland 114 %  China 17 % Portugal 100 %  South Korea 29 % US 100 %  World Average 69 %  India 64 %  Japan 229 %  Greece 152 %  Italy 120 %
  • 64. US Economy Downgrade(12/8/11)  US has been down graded from AAA rating to AA by Standard and Poor which sent shock waves across the globe  France and UK may also lose its AAA rating since the debt there is also very high  Equities market around world lost $ 5.4 trillion since the downgrade
  • 65. US Mess  Unemployment in 2010 9.6 % while in 2011 9.10 %  Inflation CPI 1.6% in 2010 and 3.6 % in 2011  GDP 2.9 % in 2010 and 1.40 % in 2011
  • 66. Broking firms smell cash in NCD (12/8/11)  Companies like Indiainfoline, Religare and muthoot finance are to raise Rs. 3500 crores  This would fetch brokers commission of Rs. 45 to 50 crores as their fees.
  • 67. Sovereign Wealth Fund(12/8/11)  UAE investment authority $ 627 billion  Norway/Govt Pension fund $512 billion  China/SAFE Investment Co $ 347 billion  China/China Investment Corp $ 332 billion
  • 68. Car sales in China (12/8/11)  1.01 million is number of passenger cars sold in China in July
  • 69. Insurance Penetration  World average life insurance 4.5 %  India average 4 %  Non life penetration only 0.6 %
  • 70. Euro Zone Data (18/8/11)  17.5 % India exports to European Union in 2010 -11  4 % share in FDI inflows from Germany and France in total inflows between April 2000 and May 2011
  • 71. Real GDP and Fiscal Deficit (Source IMF and year 2010)  Real GDP Fiscal Deficit  World 5 % 5.5 %  Euro Area 1.7 6.1  USA 2.8 10.3  Emerging Eco 7.3 3.7  Japan 3.9 9.6  UK 1.3 10.2  India 8.2 6.8
  • 72. Real GDP and Fiscal Deficit (Source IMF and year 2010)  Real GDP Fiscal Deficit  Ireland -1 % 32.2  France 1.5 7.1  Spain -0.1 9.2  Portugal 1.4 7.3  Belgium 2.0 4.6  Germany 3.5 3.3  Italy 1.3 4.5  Greece -4.5 9.6
  • 73. Primary Deficit (18/8/11)  Ireland 29.7  France 4.8  Spain 7.8  Portugal 4.6  Belgium 1.3  Germany 1.1  Italy 0.2  Greece 3.2
  • 74. SBI CAR falls (22/8/11)  2008-09 2009-10 2010-11  Tier I 9.38 9.45 7.77  Total 14.25 13.39 11.98  Provisioning 8,794 9,155 17,071  Rs crore  Tier I capital is 8 %
  • 75. Take out Financing (24/8/11)  Take out financing is a procedure under which the loans made by banks to infrastructure firms are sold to other institutions so that banks recover their funds ahead of the payment schedule under the loan agreement.  IIFCL (India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited) has target of Rs. 10,000 crores for Fy 12
  • 76. Banks in Take out financing in FY 12  Union Bank Rs. 1500 crores  Central Bank Rs. 1300 crores  IDBI bank Rs. 600 crores  PNB Rs. 180 crores  ________________________________  Banks lending to infrastructure sector  Power Rs.2,92,342 crores  Telecom Rs.94,319  Roads Rs. 99,038
  • 77. GDP of 34 countries of OECD 24/8/11  Year GDP  Q4 2009 -0.9  Q1 2010 2.5  Q2 2010 3.3  Q3 2010 3.3  Q4 2010 3.0  Q1 2011 2.4  Q2 2011 1.6
  • 78. Million job but no takers (25/8/11)  Defense 1,88,224  Faculty and Researchers 17,739  Police force 5,30,580  Field Investigators 1,300  Doctor and medical staff 1,78,801  National Rural and Health Mission 1,48,361  Income tax department 16,331
  • 79. Capital Goods stock Bargain Hunting (25/8/11)  Company Current PE 5 year Avg PE  ABB 145 43  BHEL 14 29  BEML 12 18  Bharat Elec 14 16  Crompton 12 20.9  L & T 24 23.6  Siemens 32 33.1  Thermax 15 32.2
  • 80. Gross NPA Sector Wise (25/8/11)  Unsecured and student loans 4.96  MSME loans 4.24  Auto loans 4.01  Agri loans 3.74  Asset Finance 3.26  Home loans 2.23  Corporate & Institutional 1.52  Loan against security 0.30
  • 81. Japan downgraded from Aa2 to Aa3 (25/8/11)  Moody has downgraded Japan economy  Real GDP  June 2011 -1.0 %  Mar 2011 -1.0 %  Dec 2010 2.1 %  Sept 2010 5.0 %
  • 82. Japan to fight rising yen (25/8/11)  Govt to release Forex Reserve to Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) for funding to aid exporters  Japan has $ 1.1 trillion in forex reserves 
  • 83. Gold loses its Sheen (26/8/11)  Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised its margin after gold reached $1910 ounce  Minimum cash deposit to trade gold rise 27 % ti $ 9450  Maintenance margin increased to $ 7000 from $ 5500  Shangai gold exchange also raised the margins
  • 84. Countries Contribution in World GDP (%) (29/8/11)  USA 23.1 Russia 2.3  China 9.3 Italy 3.3  Japan 8.7 Others 35.1  Germany 5.2  France 4.1  UK 3.6  India 2.7  Canada 2.5
  • 85. LIC and IIFCL to join (29/8/11)  Infrastrcture in 12th five year plan $ 1 trillion required  The propose venture will allow LIC and IIFCL to buy out 40 % of bank loan with each taking 20 % exposure  This releases banks fund and removes risk from banks  This method is different from take out finance where only IIFCL is involved  IIFCL has Rs. 8000 idle cash to buy bank loans
  • 86. RBI opens window for New banks (30/8/11)  Paid up capital Rs. 500 crores  Listing within 2 years  25 % banks branches in rural areas for financial inclusion  No foreign entity/NRI can hold more than 5 %  10 year successful business track record  Sound credential and integrity
  • 87. RBI opens window for New banks (30/8/11)  Total foreign holding cannot cross 49 %  Broking and Real estate companies mostly out of race  RBI to have last and final decision
  • 88. KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)  KS oil market cap Rs. 2600 crore last year now only Rs. 406 crore  Company may become take over target  Started in 1985 by Ramesh Garg from local farm to plantations in South East Asia  Edelwiss sold shares of Garg as he could not pay margin
  • 89. KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)  Mastard seeds prices went up 19 % from October and December 2009  March 2010 when crop arrived prices crashed 30 % to Rs. 24,400 per tonne. An then fell to Rs. 23,700 per ton.
  • 90. KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)  March 11 March 10 Ch(%)  Net sales 4681 4091 14.41  PBDIT 534 462 15.52  Tax Provi 65 40 64.44  PAT 176 212 -16.67  His ownership has fall from 16 % to 8 %
  • 91. Suzlon Turnaround (30/8/11)  June 2011 it got profit of Rs. 60 crores vs loss of Rs. 900 crores in June 10 quarter  Order book of Rs. 29000 crores  62 % of order book is from RE Power books
  • 92. Suzlon Turnaround (30/8/11)  Suzlon ready to buy 5 % remaining stake in RE Power for Rs. 398 crores  Suzlon gave -27 % return while sensex – 12 %  Total debt at Rs. 12,500 crores  Cash balance of Rs. 3000 crores
  • 93. Usha Throat Recommendations – NBFC Tighter Rules (30/8/11)  Higher capital adquacy norms at 12 %  New NBFC should have Minimum asset size of Rs. 50 crores  It should not be from Real estate and capital market company  In June 2011, banks exposure to NBFC is Rs. 1,69,000 crores which is 50 % of its total lending which is risky
  • 94. Top 10 NBFC (Asset wise Rs. crore) (30/8/11)  Shriram Transport 24,786  M&M Finance 12,165  Sundaram Finance 11,479  Cholamandalam 9,017  Shriram City 8,539  Bajaj Finance 8,066  SREI Infra 7,482  Manapuram Finance 7,577  Magma Fincorp 5,130  First Leasing 1,297
  • 95. Gold imports surge (5/9/11)  Gold Imports was 458 tonnes in 2009 but increased to 918 tonnes in 2010  Household financial saving as % of GDP was 12.1 % in 2009-10 but decreased to 9.7 % in 2010-2011
  • 96. Gold Imports double in last five years for India (5/9/11)  Year $ billion % of GDP  2006-07 14.47 1.5  2007-08 16.60 1.4  2008-09 20.43 1.6  2009-10 28.81 2.1  2010-11 33.95 2.0
  • 97. US Unemployment more Serious (7/9/11)  Unemployment in US was 6 % in 2007 when the crisis had started  Currently it is 9.8 % which is more than earlier which is more dangerous
  • 98. Ethanol Production (7/9/11)  Ethanol is produced from Molases which is by product of sugar cane when it is crushed.  Companies want Rs. 35 per litre  Govt willing to pay Rs. 27 per liter  Cost of production was earlier Rs. 20 per litre
  • 99. Indian Investors invest huge abroad (7/9/11)  Corporate investment abroad is $5.5 billion as compared to $ 2.98 billion year ago.  Individuals invested $ 64 million overseas as compared $ 62 million year ago
  • 100. PMI shows clear slow down  Indian PMI falls to 53.8 from 58.2 in August  China PMI falls to 50.6 shows contraction is on way  17 Member EURO zone also PMI at two year low at 51.5
  • 101. IIP falls (13/9/11) and Inflation soars  IIP data falls from 6.6 % to 3.3% which shows severe slowdown in the economy  Inflation went up to 9.78 % from 9.22% which is again very risky  Both the indicators would show the slowdown in the economy
  • 102. Mantra for Success(9/9/11)  Ambition is a must have, but don’t let it hurt those around you – Adil Zainulbhai MD McKinsey India  There is no need to hide your failure but you do need to flaunt what you have learnt from it – Harsh mariwala MD marico  Intellect is good but combine with HUMILITY and You have unbeatable combination – Nitin Paranjpe CEO HUL
  • 103. Mantra for Success (9/9/11)  Generalist are OK, but leaders do need to have a clearly defined area of extraordinary COMPETENCE – Pramod Bhasin VC Genpact  Think SOCIETY and not just business – Kalpana Morparia CEO JP Morgan India
  • 104. India to topple Japan as 3rd largest economy (20/9/11)  Japan GDP $ 4.31 trillion  India has reached $ 4.06 trillion  This is as per PPP (Purchasing power parity theory) which uses crude measure of purchasing one burger at any place in the world.  In rupee terms India still is only $ 1 trillion economy
  • 105. US to tax Rich persons (20/9/11)  Warren Buffet Income $ 46 million  Tax rate at 17.7 %  His Secretary Income $ 60,000  Tax Rate 30 %
  • 106. SEBI for MF NFO (20/9/11)  For NFO Equity schemes the minimum amount Rs. 10 crores  For non Equity funds, the minimum amount is now Rs. 20 crores
  • 107. Real PE Factor for any firm is People (20/9/11)  People is the only PE factor capable of creating value for itself and unleashing value from the other factor  Key No. 1 Unique value proposition and market competitive total reward package to get best “talent”  Key no 2 Build flexible culture with non- negotiable ethical values
  • 108. Real PE Factor for any firm is People (20/9/11)  Key No.3 Give customers desired value for money  Key No.4 Short term focus should not eat away long term profits
  • 109. Position of women’s in Corporate world (21/9/11)  Nandeni Sethuraman – Head Marketing Bharti Walmart jointed sep 2011  Geetu Varma Head, food, HUL, Sep 2011  Anjali Mohanty, Head, Global Transaction Banking, Deutsche Bank, Sep 2011  Anupama Ahluwalia, Head, Marketing, Coca Cola India, June 2011
  • 110. BRIC Statistics (21/9/11)  Country Current Account Deficit  2010 2011  China 5.3 4  India -2.6 -2.8  Russia 4.8 4.5  Brazil -2.3 -2.3
  • 111. Currency Position vs Dollar Dec 2010 to Sep 2011(21/9/11)  Currency Apprec/Deprec  India -6.2  Vietnamese Dong -6.4  Taiwan Dollar -1.6  Hong kong dollar -0.3  Japanese Yen 5.9  Newzealand Dollar 5.2  Australian Dollar 0.6
  • 112. India Fiscal Deficit worrying (21/9/11)  April July 2011 fiscal deficit is Rs. 2,28,000 crores which is already 55 % of Rs.4,12,000 crores budgeted for year  Last year same period it was Rs.90,900 crores only  FII have withdrawn $ 1.2 Billion in August and in 2011 net investment is only $ 4.4 billion as compared to $21.8 billion last year.
  • 113. Short term rates in BRIC (21/9/11)  Country Rates (%)  China 3.22  India 8.25  Russia 8.25  Brazil 12
  • 114. Euro Nations debt (26/9/11)  Debt to GDP Ratio (%)  Greece 144.0  Germany 78.7  France 83.5  UK 76.5  Italy debt is higher than the combined of Portugal, Ireland,Spain
  • 115. STT may Cut (27/9/11)  STT introduced in 2004  Earlier was 0.15 % then reduced to 0.125 % on both buyer and seller for delivery base trade  0.025 % for intraday and applicable only to sellers
  • 116. BRICS to take on Developed 5 (3/10/11)  % contribution to world GDP in 1995 of developed countries was 44.6% which is now 31.6 % in 2015 while BRICS increased from 15.8 % to 30.3 % in 2015  BRICS now account for 16 % of global exports – almost 3 folds rise in last 15 years
  • 117. BRICS to take on Developed 5 (3/10/11)  In 1995 % contribution to world exports of developed countries reduced from 40.5 % to 27.8% in 2010 and those of BRICS increased from 6.5 % to 16.3 %  % contribution to Global Portfolio Equity flows in 1995 63.3% reduced to 27.4 % for Developed countries while for BRICS it increased from 5.8 % to 14.6%
  • 118. FDI inflows ($ billion)  Year $ billion  2006-07 22.8  2007-08 34.8  2008-09 37.8  2009-10 37.8  2010-11 27.0  2011-12(April-Aug) 17.4
  • 119. Indian companies sit on Cash Pile (17/10/11)  Company FY08 FY11  Coal India 20961 45862  Reliance Ind. 4474 30192  ONGC 25055 28688  NTPC 15360 17859  SAIL 13933 17747  Tata Steel 4231 10892
  • 120. GDP and Inflation (24/10/11)  Governor Time Inflation GDP  Venkitaraman 90-92 12.7 3.9  C Rangaranjan92-97 6.6 6.3  Bimal Jalan 97-2003 4.7 5.7  YV Reddy 2003-08 5.9 8.5  D Subbarao 2008 7.2 7.8
  • 121. NFO Euphoria turns into Gloom (All funds launched in 2006 Rs. Crores (24/10/2011)  Fund NFO Collection Current AUM  Reliance Equity 5790 1215  SBI Blue-chip 2850 752  UTI leadership 2025 667  SBI One India 1854 523  UTI Contra 1145 165  Tatacapitalbuilder 268 109  LIC Nomura Vision253 48
  • 122. World PMI decreases in October 2011 (2/11/2011)  Country PMI Sep PMI Oct  China 51.2 50.4  US 51.6 50.8  UK 50.8 47.4  India 50.4 52.0
  • 123. Power Sector Loans sticky (2/11/2011)  Total lending to sector Rs.4,80,000 crores  Loans at Risk Rs. 56,000 crores  Banks Exposure  SBI 36,914  ICICI 37,223  Axis Bank 17,110  PNB 6,706  Union Bank 11,902
  • 124. Indian Corporate Earnings down (21/11/2011)  Sales up 14.3 % lowest in 7 quarters  Operating profit up 4 % lowest in last 2 years  Net profit down by 34.9% biggest fall in 8 quarters  Operating margins14 1.% lowest in 10 quarter
  • 125. World In MESS(24/11/2011)  China PMI to 48  US Economy to have 2 % GDP in 2012 as compared to 2.5 % earlier.  Germany banks fail in Bond Auction  Out of $ 8 billion, 6 billion funded by Central bank other banks gave only $ 3 billion  US fails to cut deficit of $ 2.2 trillion
  • 126. Indian Economy Troubled  High inflation around 10 %  Rupee Depreciating 52.18  New Pension scheme has violated investment norms (Corpus of Rs. 9500 crores) of 26 lakh govt employees
  • 127. Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) (Reading above 100 indicates over valued vice versa  36 basket 6 basket  April 11 104.94 116.48  May 103.03 115.46  June 103.82 115.21  July 104.94 116.83  Aug 102.93 114.64  Sep 100.13 111.46  Oct 11 NA 106.65
  • 128. Retail loans (7/12/2011)  Retails loans portfolio  ICICI bank 40 %  HDFC bank 50 %  Axis bank 21 %  Axis bank plans to increase to 30 %  Current retail loan book at Rs.29,300 crores
  • 129. Jim O Neill – founder of BRIC word (7/12/2011)  “India should not raise people hope about FDI and then in week say “We are only joking”  “India inability to raise its share of global FDI is very disappointing”
  • 130. Rating of EuroZOne (7/12/2011)  Country Outlook  Austria AAA –ve Solvenia AA -ve  France AAA –ve Slovakia A+ -ve  Finland AAA-ve Malta A -ve  Germany AAA-ve Italy A -ve  Netherland AAA –ve Ireland BBB+ -ve  Luxemberg AAA –ve Cyprus BBB+ -ve  Belgium AA –ve Portugal BBB- -ve  Greece Cc -ve  Rating below BBB- are considered as JUNK
  • 131. Subsidy Shoots up (8/12/2011)  Fertilizer subsidy to shoot up target by Rs. 40,000 crores  Food Subsidy pegged at Rs.60,753 crores will also overshoot  Total subsidy could be around Rs. 1,00,000 crores which would widen fiscal deficit by 5.7 % of GDP.
  • 132. Global Carbon Emissions rise  Global 5.9 %  China 10.4 %  Brazil 11.6 %  South korea 9.2 %  India 9.4 %  USA 4.0 %  9.14 billion tonnes of total Co2 pumped into air  510 million was extra, largest % rise since 2003  US is world second largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China
  • 133. Trade deficit with China (9/12/2011)  Total Bilateral trade of india with china is $ 63 billion in 2010-2011  India imports from China $ 43 billion  Currently 26 % of total imports from China  Next five years Chinese imports could touch 75 %  Risky for india as we have strained relationship
  • 134. PSU Banks on hiring spree (9/12/2011)  Allahbad Bank 2200  Bank of baroda 4000  Bank of maharashtra 1870  PNB 10500  Uco Bank 2100  Union Bank 10000
  • 135. Food inflation falls (9/12/2011)  Food inflation at 6.6% from 19.1 on 1.1.2011  Food articles have 14.3 % weightage in wholesale price index
  • 136. Gold Loans soar to Rs.55000 crores (13/12/2011)  Year Loans against gold (Rs. Crores)  FY02 2500  FY07 12000  FY09 25000  FY10 37500  FY11 50000  FY12 55000  Interest rates on gold at 12% to 24 % while personal loans it is 36%
  • 137. Rupee impact on Economic (14/12/2011)  Rupee slides negates 11 % decline in crude prices  Imports $352 billion to get costlier  Government subsidy bill to rise further  Interest cost to go up further with foreign borrowing
  • 138. % change in currency of major countries(14/12/2011)  Country % change vs Dollar  India -21 %  Euro -9 %  Japan -1 %  Brazil -18%  China + 1%  Russia -15%  Malaysia -8%
  • 139. Losses of Sensex & Nifty (13/12/2011)  Sensex -21.5 %  Nifty -24 %  RIL -28.5 %  Infosys -21.5 %
  • 140. Consumption to GDP (12/12/2011)  Consumption to GDP of China is 33 %  Consumption to GDP – USA is 70 %  Consumption to GDP – india is 60 %
  • 141. Foreign Borrowings hurting (Rs crores)  Foreign currency loan total loan  Rel com 20351 34896  IOC 18074 73296  Tata Steel 14464 28716  HPCL 13687 31253  BPCL 10698 24734  NTPC 9334 47461  AbanOffshore 8258 13425
  • 142. IT sector creates more jobs (26/12/2011)  Company FY06 FY11 Net add  TCS 111407 198614 87207  Infosys 44658 130820 86162  Wipro 53742 122385 68643  Tata Steel 38182 81251 43069  HDFC Bank 14878 55752 40874  Tata Motors 22349 53151 30802  SBI 198774 222933 24159
  • 143. Services vs manufacturing (26/12/2011)  Only 12% of total jobs are created by manufacturing sector  Proportion of service sector jobs in total headcount rose to 46.5% in FY11 from 41.8% in FY06
  • 144. Tata Steel Strength (29/12/2011)  Tata steel contributes $ 27 billion to total Tata of $ 83 billion  Tata steel has operations in 26 countries spread across 5 continents  67% of tata steel revenue is international  2005 Tata steel acquired South East Asia based Natsteel  2007 Tata steel acquired Corus worth $ 12.2 billion along with 41000 Non Indian workers
  • 145. BSE NSE cash volume crashes (3/1/2012)  Period 16-31 Dec Volume  2007 26239  2008 14263  2009 17246  2010 15034  2011 9911
  • 146. IPO in mess (3/1/2012)  39 firms raised Rs. 14021 crores in 2011  In 2010, firms raised Rs.69,112 crores
  • 147. Borrowing cost rise for G7 (4/1/12) ($ billion)  The maturing debt burden of G7 and BRIC has balloned by $200 billion in 2012  Japan 3000 Brazil 169  US 2783 UK 165  Italy 428 China 121  France 367 India 57  Germany 285 Russia 13  Canada 211
  • 148. Ageing BRICs to limit world growth to 4.3 % this decade (4/1/12)  46% increase in people aged 65 + in BRIC by 2020  61 Million decrease in age group 15-24 years by 2030 in China  China factory output to be hit hard  BRIC account for 25 % for world GDP
  • 149. Forex losses looms large (5/1/12)  Company Forex loss % of PBT  Renuka sugar 464 203  Ranbaxy lab 498 150  JSW Energy 78 81  Tata Power 717 70  Usha martin 120 70  Essar oil 469 69
  • 150. Cash market volumes on BSE and NSE (5/1/12)  Year BSE NSE Total  2006 969860 1916227 2886087  2007 1414723 3093928 4508705  2008 1324051 3188510 4512562  2009 1273964 3812031 5085996  2010 1193205 3657521 4850726  2011 693317 2762867 3456185
  • 151. Sebi fines Rs.60 lakhs on Ranbaxy Ex-Independent Director for insider trading  Solrex had invested Rs. 200 crores in Orchid Chemicals.  V K kaul and his wife Bala kaul knew this information and purchased shares between March 31,2008 and April 11,2008.  In June 2010, SEBI had fined Rs. 1 crore Manmohan shetty, former MD of Adlabs for selling shares.
  • 152. Govt to come with Auction of shares (5/1/12)  Company Govt holding  Hindustan Copper 99.59  MMTC 99.33  HMT 98.88  National Fertiliser 97.64  RCF 92.50  STCI 91.02
  • 153. ECB cash averts funding crisis in Europe (6/1/12)  ECB has given banks $636 billion of three year loans  Two year Italian yields are down 50 bps  Belgian notes also down by 22 bps
  • 154. Trading volumes drop 34 % worst in world (6/1/12 Mint)  Country Avg Daily trading %ch in last  (Million shares) 3 years  US 12468 -26.3  China 173218 45.7  Japan 48902 33.2  Uk 2260 5.2  Canada 381 -19.3  France 160 11.1
  • 155. Trading volumes drop 34 % worst in world (6/1/12 Mint)  Country Avg Daily trading %ch in last  (Million shares) 3 years  Germany 539 16.8  Brazil 11317 -20.2  Australia 2523 14.5  Switzerland 57 -17.6  India 872 -34.4  South Korea 3537 -27.2
  • 156. Asset class returns (6/1/12) Mint  Nifty -24.62%  Cash 3.79 % (Saving Bank )  Debt 8.24 %  Gold 31.72 %
  • 157. KFA turns NPA (6/1/12) Mint  KFA total debt Rs. 6000 crores  Banks loan includes  SBI Rs. 1457 Crores  IDBI Rs. 727 Crores  PNB Rs. 710 Crores  Bank of India Rs. 575 Crores  Bank of Baroda Rs. 537 crores.  KFA reported net loss Rs. 469 crores for july sept 2011 quarter.
  • 158. US Auto makers post best annual sales since 2008 (6/1/12) (Million units)  Company Sales in US % chg YOY  GM 2.5 13  Chrysler 1.4 26  Ford 2.1 11  Honda 1.15 -6.80  Toyota 1.7 -6.70  Nissan 1.04 15  Hyundai 0.6 20
  • 159. Key factors for poor markets  In 2010, FII put in record $ 29 billion  In 2011, FII net sellers to tune of $ 380 million  Sep
  • 160. Jobless rates in EU (9/1/12)  Company % unemployment  Austria 4.0  Germany 5.5  Crez Rup 6.7  Sweden 7.4  UK 8.3  Italy 8.6  France 9.8
  • 161. Jobless rates in EU (9/1/12)  Company % unemployment  Poland 10.0  Hungary 10.7  Ireland 14.6  Greece 18.8  Spain 22.9
  • 162. US Economy improving (9/1/12)  US share in global exports rising from low of 8 % in 2008.  FDI inflow in US have picked and are currently 1.5 % of US GDP compared to mere 0.5 % share in 2002  US current account deficit has reduced from 7 % of GDP at height of US consumption boom in 2007 to 3 % now.
  • 163. US Economy improving (9/1/12)  For China pay and benefits between 2005 and 2010 rose 19 % annually for average factory worked in China while cost of employing US labour increased by only 4 %.  BCG estimates that by 2015 manufacturing in US will be just as economical as China for many goods made for North America consumers
  • 164. US Economy improving (9/1/12)  US has become self sufficient energy from low of 68 % in 2005 to now 78 % in overall energy requirement  Between 1991 and 2001, greenback appreciated by more than 30% on trade weighted and inflation adjusted basis.
  • 165. Valuation of Stock Exchanges (10/1/12)  Chicago Mercantile Exchange valued at $ 16.30 billion  NYSE Euro next is $ 6.8 billion  Singapore Exchange valued at $ 6.6 billion  Johannesburg Stock is valued at Rand 6.2 billion  London stock Exchange valued at 2.2 billion pound  NSE $ 3.5 billion but BSE less than $ 1 billion
  • 166. New Investments at 5 year low (11/1/12)  Year Govt Invest Pvt lnvest Total  2010 7.39 11.49 18.88  2011 4.43 6.03 10.46  % chg -40.04 -47.79 -44.57
  • 167. %Decline in 2011 vs 2010 (11/1/12)  Approvals % Decline  CCEA 47.62  CCI 59.26  Ports 90.91  Roads 54.05  6 lane highways 30.28  Communication & It 66.67
  • 168. FCCB Bomb ticking (17/1/12)  Indian corporate have to repay $ 7 billion worth of FCCB on March 2013.  Rcom ($ 925 million)  Orchid chemical ($ 175 million)  JSW Steel ($ 274 million)  Sterling Biotech ($ 250 million)
  • 169. Slowing Economy (17/1/12)  Period GDP%  Sep 2010 8.9  Dec 2010 8.4  March 2011 7.8  June 2011 7.7  Sep 2011 6.9
  • 170. Indian will do well (18/1/12)  Real GDP per person change from 2007 to 2012 (forecast) % is that Indian will be better off than their counterparts in Britain, US, France and Japan.  For India the rise is 34 % while for China is 50 %
  • 171. US spends on Credit Cards (18/1/12)  In Nov 2011, Americans spend $ 5.6 billion on Credit Cards Debt  Total credit card debt in the country now stands at $ 798 billion
  • 172. Insurance Claim Settlement (18/1/12)  Company Ratio % Claim pending %  LIC 97.03 1.46  HDFC 95.41 0.61  Birla 94.66 0.35  ICICI 94.61 2.25  ING Vysya 90.49 5.19  Overall Pvt 86.05 5.01  Sector
  • 173. Non core Biz come to Brokers Aid (18/1/12)  Distribtuion & Wealth Mgt (Rs.Crore)  2007-08 1510  2008-09 1340  2009-10 1280  2010-11 1590
  • 174. Non core Biz come to Brokers Aid (18/1/12)  Profit from fees basedbusiness(Rs.crore)  2007-08 3070  2008-09 670  2009-10 2190  2010-11 1670  2011-12E 400-450  2012-13E 500-550
  • 175. UN says India to shine in 2012(18/1/12)(GDP %)  Country 2011 2012 2013  India 7.6 7.7 7.9  China 9.3 8.7 8.5  EU 1.6 0.7 1.7  USA 1.7 1.5 2.0  World 2.8 2.6 3.2  Even in worst case scenario India GDP to be 6.7 in 2012 and 6.9 in 2013
  • 176. Life Insurance Premium falls first time in decade (18/1/12)  Year Pre (Rs.Crore) % fall or gain  06-07 61354 98.84  07-08 78502 27.95  08-09 69364 -11.64  09-10 81690 17.77  10-11 82294 0.74  11-12 62428(Apr-Nov)
  • 177. HNI Portfolio (19/1/12)  Asia Pacific reports from Merrill Lynch and Capgemini HNI wealth in india grew by 22% in 2009-10  India HNI population grew from 1.27 lakh to 1.53 lakh
  • 178. HNI Portfolio (19/1/12)  HNI Portfolio % of assets  Cash 6  Equities 36  Real Estate 23  Fixed Income 26  Cash/deposits  Alternative asset 9
  • 179. Implied volatility & Nifty(19/1/12)  Year Nifty IV  Dec 2008 10.3 -22  Jan 09 -5.23 1.84  Dec 09 1.54 -8.29  Jan 10 -6.69 10.53  Dec 10 2.91 -13.75  Jan 11 -10.58 37.79  Dec 11 -6.33 8.35  Jan 12 7.13 -17.87
  • 180. Reliance Buy Back (19/1/12)  SEBI guidelines allows companies to buy back shares upto 10 % of paid up capital and reserves without shareholders approval.  With shareholders approval 25 %  In 2005 RIL announced buy back of Rs. 3000 crores but actually bought only Rs. 150 crre
  • 181. Reliance Buy Back (19/1/12)  Current laws ensure that company spends atleast 25 % of announced offer size that too within 35-45 days  RIL has cash balance of Rs.61490 crores as on Sep 30, 2011
  • 182. Mutual funds deals (20/1/12)  Natrix Global Asset Mgmt bought 25 % in IDFC MF for 5.5% of its AUM in Dec 2010  Japan Normura bought a stake in LIC MF for about 2.5 %  T Row acquired 26% strategic stake in UTI AMC for 3.6%of AUM in 2010  IDFC bough Stancharts for 5.7 % of AUM in 2009
  • 183. Mutual funds deals (20/1/12)  Eton Park capital paid 13 % of AUM for 5 % stake in Reliance Mutual fund in 2007  Nippon life Buys 26 % in Reliance capital for Rs. 1450 crore valuing 6.8% of AUM largest ever MF deal by foreign firm
  • 184. AUM of top 5 MF (20/1/12) (Rs.Crores)  Mutual Funds AUM  HDFC mutual fund 88628  Reliance mutual fund 82305  ICICI Prudential 69367  Birla Sun Life 60377  UTI Mutual Fund 57817
  • 185. Real Estate on Hiring Spree (23/1/12)  985 milion square feet of residential space is due for delivery between 2011 & 2013  In 2008-10 the delivery was only of 522 million square feet.  20% rise in total number of new hiring
  • 186. Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) gives $ 1 billion to 5 fund houses (23/1/12)  KIA has given $ 1 billion to 5 local Mutual funds in India  Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund  DSP Black Rock  ICICI Prudential  Canara Robeco Mutual Fund  Franklin Templeton  Each MF has been allocated $ 200 million
  • 187. FII control Sensex(24/1/12)  Country FII $ million % chg index  India -358 -24.64  Taiwan -9074 -20.61  Japan -323 -17.34  Korea -8584 -10.98  Thailand -167 -0.72  Indonesia 2950 3.19  Philipines 1329 4.06
  • 188. Stocks Responsible for Sensex Crash (24/1/12)  Company Points fall %chg FII Holding  RIL -858 -0.59  LNT -699 -2.76  ICICI -691 -4.49  SBI -445 -5.48  Tata Steel -266 -3.13  BHEL -253 -1.76  Hindalco -228 -3.25
  • 189. Stocks Responsible for Sensex Crash (24/1/12)  Company Points fall %chg FII Holding  Sterlite Ind -192 -1.79  Tata Motors -188 -0.08  Jindal Steel -143 -2.47  15 stocks accounted for 85 % fall in Sensex. As on Dec 2011 india has 3000 actively traded shares while Korea 1816, Taiwan 824, Thailand 545 and Indonesia 440.
  • 190. Large buyback by Global Energy majors from 2007 to 2010 (24.1.12)  Company Backbuy($ billion)  Exxon mobil 100  Conoco Phillips 19  Chevron 13.5  BP 9.6  Shell 7.9  BASF 3.5  RIL 2.1
  • 191. Consumption story (30/1/12) (million units)  Particulars Total Urban% Rural%  TV 122 47 53  2wheeler 42.5 51 49  Fridge 39.7 68 32  Washer 14.2 82 18  Car 5.6 73 27  PC 5.4 84 16  AC 2.8 93 7
  • 192. FDI flows rise (30/1/12)  FDI flows from january 2011 to Nov 2011 increased by 25 %  Brazil saw rise of 48 %  Total FDI in india $ 50 billion  FDI created 2.16 lakhs jobs  Technology had maximum 146 projects and growth of 51 % in value of FDI
  • 193. Infra companies had huge debt (30/1/12)  From 2007 to 2011debt increased  GMR 6.7 times  BGR Energy 5.4 times  IVRCL 5.4 times  GVK 3.59 times  Jaypee Infratech 31 times
  • 194. Unemployment at record high in EU (1/2/12)  Country Under 25 age% Overall %  Spain 48.7 22.9  Greece 47.2 19.2  Portugal 30.8 13.6  Italy 31.0 8.9  Ireland 29.0 14.5  France 23.8 9.9  UK 22.3 8.4  Germany 7.8 5.5  Eurozone 10.4 EU 9.9
  • 195. CASA Account (1/2/12)  Bank CASA % of total Deposit  IndusInd Bank 26.52  Yes Bank 28  Kotak Bank 28  ICICI 43.6  HDFC 47.7  Axis Bank 42  Bank of India 32.41
  • 196. Sensex best since 1994 Jan (2/2/12)  January 2012 saw sensex giving return of 11.3 %  FII bought close to Rs. 11000 crores of shares  PMI increased to 57.5 from 54.2 in December 2011
  • 197. Jan 2012 has good data (7/2/2012)  Rupee gain 7.45 % in Jan highest in 17 years  Sensex up 11.3% in Jan highest in 18 years  RBI cuts CRR from 6 % to 5.5%  Inflation falls to 7.5 % in Dec from 9.1% in November, food inflation in negative
  • 198. Jan 2012 has good consumer durable data (7/2/12)  Fiat panel TV sales up 50%  Tablets sales up 40 %  Smartphones 8 to 9 %  Laptops and Desktops 5-6%  Apparel 10 %
  • 199. PE invest in water business (7/2/2012)  Company PE fund Rs. Crore Invest  Vishwa Infra IFC 26  Pratibha indus Sequoia 3  Waterlife india matrix partner 22  Greywater Tech Nexus venture 9  Vishwa Infra Olympus 240  SMS Paryavaran Aditya Birla 40  Neela Systems Vinod Khosla 64
  • 200. Airlines to import fuel directly (8/2/2012)  Rs 2500 crores saving for Airlines industry  Direct import would cost 4-5 % less of total amount currently paid  Fuel cost account for 40 % of the total operational cost
  • 201. FII bet on Corporate Governance (9/2/2012)  FII Promoter Return in 2012  IVRCL 37.1 11.2 96.1  Ktak bank 20.4 0.0 56.8  NCC 42.7 19.5 54.4  IIFL 40.1 31.6 52.6  IDFC 45.8 0.0 51.0  Indiacement 27 25.8 45.5
  • 202. FII bet on Corporate Governance (9/2/2012)  FII Promoter Return in 2012  LIC Hou 40.1 36.5 248.5  Hexaware 41.4 28.2 147.3  Indusindbank 34.7 19.5 139.7  Dr.Reddy 27.2 25.6 120.4  ITC 16.3 0.0 94.3
  • 203. Bharti Airtel Net profit down 22 % (9/2/2012)  Net profit down 22 % to Rs. 1011 crores  ARPU fell 6% from Rs. 199 to Rs. 187  Loss from African operations Rs.260 crores from Rs. 525 crores last year
  • 204. RBI increases Bank rate to 9.5 % (14/2/2012)  RBI has increased bank rate to 9.5 %  Change has been made after 2003  Currently it was 6 %  The rationale it has to be more than Marginal Adjust Facility which is 1 % more than Repo Rate (8.5 %)
  • 205. Interest cost growth lowers (13/2/2012)(Int.Coverage Ratio)  Sector ICR (times) Sector ICR (times)  Infra 1.45 Pharma 8.56  Retail 2.77 Cement 13.49 Steel 3.03 Infotech 29.00  Power 3.82 Auto 33.13  Real Estate 5.59 FMCG 47.80  Telecom 6.11  Capital goods 7.94 Overall 7.57
  • 206. Interest cost Growth lower in Dec quarter (13/2/2012)  India Inc Interest expenses grew 42% YOY  Lower than Sep quarter 55 % growth  Due to rates peak out
  • 207. Best 10 year SIP returns (13/2/2012)  Mutual Fund SIP 10 year return(%)  Reliance Growth 26.86  DSPBR Equity 25.48  HDFC top 200 25.18  Magnum Global 24.92  HDFC Equity 24.89  Magnum Contra 24.38  HDFC Growth 23.11
  • 208. Best 10 year SIP returns (13/2/2012)  Mutual Fund SIP 10 year return(%)  Magnum Multiplier plus 22.91  Franklin India Bluechip 22.10  Franklin India Prima Plus 21.97
  • 209. SBI back on track (14/2/2012)  Particulars Rs crore  Net profit 3263  Total Interest income 27661  Total deposits 10,00,965  Net NPA 2.22%  Gross NPA 4.05%
  • 210. Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal steet page 86 feb 2012)  In 2007 Rs. 11250 crores vs Rs.40095 crores in 2012 spend in NREGA  Guaranted 100 working days in a year  Agricuture wages in last 3 years have gone up by 105 %  46 % of household consuption goes on food  High wages, farm labour cost and shortages rise which forces govt to raise procurement price.
  • 211. Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86  Public Money being wasted  Angaluru village in krishna district in AP  1000 families and 800 registered under NREGA  100 days at Rs 100 per day  80000 man days of useful work in a year is impossible in a village
  • 212. Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86  Agricultural wages labour have gone up by 2.5 times  Agriculture becoming unviable  Farmers sell land as one acre bring Rs. 10 to 15 lakhs  Money put in FD gives Rs.130000  But cultivating land gives only Rs. 100000  So no incentive for cultivation
  • 213. Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86  We are promoting dependency and idleness and destroying work ethic by promoting instead a welfare ethic  The easily obtained money is spend on liquor  Rs. 15000 crore worth of liquor being sold in Andhra Pradesh every year
  • 214. Interesting Data (Dalal street pg 58 Feb 2012  241 million people would be added to working population between 2010 to 2030  35 Million people are employed directly in textile industry  Textile is second to agriculture  Textile industry contributes 14 % to Indian industrial production and 4 % to GDP  PSU banks have Rs. 10,000 crores exposure to the telecom companies of which Rs. 7500 crores is secured against assets.
  • 215. India Imports from GULF (29/2/2012) (Million Metric tonnes)  Country 2009-10 2010-11  Saudi Arabia 27.18 27.36  Iran 21.19 18.49  Iraq 14.96 17.15  UAE 11.60 14.70  Kuwait 11.79 11.49  Qatar 5.41 5.60  Oman 5.39 5.42
  • 216. Economy crawls at 6.1% slowest in 3 years (1/3/2012)  In Q3 GDP growth at 6.1%  In last quarter that is Q2 it was 6.9%  Sectors Q 2 Q3  Agriculture 3.2 2.7  Manufacturing 2.7 0.4  Services 9.3 8.9
  • 217. BSE shares rise due to MCX(1/3/2012)  BSE shares now are at Rs. 180  In Dec 2011 they were at Rs. 140  BSE brokers were given 10,000 shares at Rs. 1 each  They were purchased back at Rs. 5200  Then 12:1 bonus was given which took the value to Rs. 400 per share  Book value of one BSE share is Rs. 205
  • 218. Structured Products (1/3/2012)  Karvy Private Wealth managed Rs. 21,387 crore allotted to them in 2011  Capital Guarantee  2 to 3 years lock in  Case:- Rs. 100, maturity 2 years. Rs 85 invested in FD and Rs. 15 in shares  AT 8 % Rs.16 would be earned in 2 years which makes 85 + 16 = Rs. 100 as principal  Now Rs. 15 in equities say gives 100 % return then Rs. 30 out of it  So total return Rs. 30 + 100 = 130 which means 30% return in 2 years which is fair enough with capital guarantee.
  • 219. Nifty PE cheaper than peers (1/3/2012)  Index Current PE FY13 PE  Japan Nikki 25.43 15.04  US Nasdaq 24.18 13.46  Korea Kospi 21.63 8.56  Taiwan TWSE 19.16 12.99  India Nifty 15.14 13.35  China Shcomp 12.75 8.59  Germany DAX 11.74 9.59
  • 220. Nifty PE cheaper than peers (1/3/2012)  Index Current PE FY13 PE  Brazil IBOV 11.47 9.41  UK FTSE 11.24 9.57  France CAC 10.84 9.11  Hong Kong 10.03 9.86  Singapore 8.58 12.56  Russia RTSI 5.87 5.91
  • 221. Corporate Bribes in US Rise (12/3/2012)  $ 1 trillion paid in bribes annually to governments officials  78 corporations under investigation in USA  Violation of Foreign Corrupt Practice Act which is 35 years old  Pfizer, Goldmansach, HP,Wal Mart
  • 222. RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis points (9/3/2012)  RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis points.  New CRR is at 4.75 %  It would release Rs. 48000 crores into system.  Earlier CRR cut of 50 basis points had injected Rs.32000 crores  Totally Rs. 80,000 crores
  • 223. MNC Arms valued more than parent (14/3/2012)  Indian PE ROE(%)  Astrazeneca 90.3 49.8  Novartis India 15.7 33.8  Kennametal India 26.0 43.0  Honeywell Auto 24.3 28.6  3M India 63.0 30.1  Blue Dart 37.8 28.2  Oracle Fin Ser 19.7 25.7
  • 224. MNC Arms valued more than parent (14/3/2012)  Parent PE ROE (%)  Astrazeneca PLC 6.2 43  Novartis India AG 14.3 14.1  Kennametal India 12.2 15.6  Honeywell Int 13.6 19.3  3M Co 14.7 27.6  Deutsche Post AG 14.4 27.2  Oracle Corp 15.7 24.2
  • 225. First SME listed on BSE(14/3/2012)  BCB finance first company to list on BSE SME  It raised Rs 8.85 crores  Issued 35.4 lakh shares  Shares were priced at Rs.25 but it got listed at Rs. 27 (gain of 8%)
  • 226. Govt Borrowing in Fiscal 2012  The Govt had initially targeted borrowing of Rs.4,17,128 crores  Rs. 5,10,000 crores is actual borrowing done
  • 227. IIP Growth surprises in Jan 2012 (13/3/2012)  Month IIP (%)  July 2011 3.6  Aug 2011 3.4  Sep 2011 2.5  Oct 2011 -5.0  Nov 2011 5.9  Dec 2011 2.5  Jan 2012 6.8
  • 228. Pharma sector on Tenterhooks(15/3/2012)  Indian pharma market worth Rs. 60,000 crores  15 % growth of industry for last many years  Foreign markets growing single digit  Natco pharma allowed to sell cancer drug at 3 % of Bayer price which is too low  Foreign MNC not happy with allowing manufacturing and selling low cost version of cancer drug at fraction of price charged by patent holder Germany Bayer AG
  • 229. Reduced Poverty numbers (20/3/2012)  In 2005 population 1140 million & in 2010 it is 1225 million  In 2004-05 no of people below poverty line 407.2 million and in 2009-10 it is 354.7 million  Villages see drop from 37% to 30% in 5 years  GDP in 2004-05 7%, 2005-06 9.5%, 2006-07 9.5%, 2007-08 9.7%, 2008-09 6.5%, 2009-10 8.4%
  • 230. HCC on verge of NPA (20/3/2012)  Rs. 8100 crore debt  Rs. 3000 crore loans needs to be restructured  27 lenders including SBI, PNB trying to persuade HCC to pay  Rs. 90 crore interest payment lenders want from HCC by March 31 to maintain its “standard status”  Rs.134 crore loss HCC posted in Dec 2011  Rs. 1.5 lakh crore loans likely to be restructured in Indian banking system this fiscal.  Lavasa project has also slowed down
  • 231. Inequality increases Gini Coefficient (22/3/2012)  States 2004-05 2009-10  All India 0.35 0.37  Maharashtra 0.35 0.38  Gujarat 0.30 0.31  Jammu kashmir 0.24 0.31  Punjab 0.32 0.36  Assam 0.30 0.33  Rajasthan 0.30 0.32
  • 232. Inflation Index (22/3/12) Mint  Particulars Weight age  Food, beverages,tobacco 50 %  Fuel & light 9%  Housing 10%  Clothing,bedding,footwear 5%  Miscellaneous 26%
  • 233. Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint  Year Int.as % of Net Sales  March 2010 6.50  Sep 2010 8.78  March 2011 8.01  Sep 2011 10.62
  • 234. Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint  Year Int Coverage Ratio  March 2010 4.85  Sep 2010 3.87  March 2011 3.45  Sep 2011 2.80
  • 235. Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint  Year Debt Equity Ratio  March 2010 5.31  Sep 2010 8.53  March 2011 9.73  Sep 2011 10.10
  • 236. Mahindra Satyam Deal (22/2/2012)  Strength of Combined Entity  Valuation of Mahindra Satyam $ 1.8 billion  $ 2.4 billion revenue  75000 employees  350 clients  $ 3.1 billion market cap  2 shares of Tech Mahindra shares to be swapped for 17 shares of Mahindra Satyam
  • 237. Mahindra Satyam Deal (Rs.crore) (22/2/2012)  Satyam Tech Mah Combine  Net sales 6105 5332 11437  PBIT 751 777 1529  PAT 444 670 1115  Oper margin 12.3 14.6 13.4  Reserves 4358 3682 8041
  • 238. RBI Tightens Norms for Gold loan NBFCs (22/3/2012)  RBI has directed that companies having half their assets in gold should have minimum CAR of 12% Tier I by April 2014  Companies cannot lend more than 60% of value of gold jewellery
  • 239. PE firms Big losses on Dalal Street (26/3/2012)  Company Time Price CMP Loss  Punj Lloyd Aug07 275 55 -80%  NCC Aug07 202 50 -75%  Golandas Aug07 275 75 -73%  Welspun Corp June11 225 144 -36%  IDFC July10 176 135 -23%  Max India Dec 10 183 171 -7%
  • 240. GAAR Scares Market (27/3/2012)  GAAR (General Anti Avoidance Rule)  Aims to tax  FII coming through Mauritius  Participatory Notes (P-Notes)  It may overrule the DTAA (Double Tax Avoidance Treaty)
  • 241. Sovereign Wealth Funds (28/3/2012)  Fund $ Billion  Abudhabi Investment 627  Norway Govt Pension 611  China SAFE Investment 568  Saudi Arabia SAMA 533  China Investment Corp 439  Kuwait Investment Authority 296  HK Monetary Authority 293  Govt of Singapore 247  Temasek Holdings 157  Russia National Welfare fund 149
  • 242. ELSS outperforms traditional tax savers (28/3/2012)  ELSS has given 26 % return in last 10 years and 22 % return in last 3 years  Average inflation in last 10 years is 6.05%  PPF has given 8.10 % in last 10 years  NSC has given 9.10 % in last 10 years
  • 243. BRICS Shining (29/3/2012)  Share of BRICS in world GDP  Year % share  2000 8.4  2010 18.2  2016(Est) 23.8  Source IMF
  • 244. BRICS Shining (29/3/2012  Countrywise share in world GDP  Country % share  India 2.6  Brazil 3.3  China 9.3  Russia 2.4  South Africa 0.6
  • 245. BRICS Shining (29/3/2012  BRICS share in Global Exports  2000 It was 6.9%  2010 it was 16.3 %  BRICS share in FDI Attraction  2000 it was 5.3%  2010 it was 17.8%
  • 246. SEBI norms for listing Stock Exchanges (3/4/2012)  Bourses must separate regulatory and business roles before listing  Listing will take place 3 years after SEBI nod  SE have to set up Independent Clearing Corporation & transfer 25% of profit to Settlement Guarantee Fund  No single investor should hold more than 5 % in SE  Exchange, Depository, Insurance cos, banks, public financial institutions to hold up to 15 %
  • 247. US Improving but Europe in mess (3/4/2012)  US Factory employment index rose in March 2012 to 56.1 from 53.2  Country Unemployment  Spain 23.6%  Greece 21%  Portugal 15%  Ireland 14.7%  Austria 4.2%
  • 248. US Back on Track (4/4/2012)  In 2011, US household consumption was $ 10.7 trillion  70 % of GDP of US goes into Household consumption  China size in 2011 was $ 7 trillion  Unemployment rate down at 8.3 %
  • 249. MF Return and their Standard Deviations (9/4/2012)  Funds 1year SD 3year SD 5year SD  Small/Mid -0.65 21 31 28 7.93 32  CNXmidcap-4.09 25 31 30 9.72 35  Large cap -7.28 19 22 25 7.25 29  BSE100 -9.23 21 22 27 6.83 31  Sensex -10.5 20 21 26 5.89 30
  • 250. Close loss making urban bank branches (9/4/2012)  India has 60,153 ATM  41 % owned by State Run Banks  ATM viable only if 200 transactions per day is there  Private sector bank becomes profitable within 10 to 12 months of its operations  Finance Ministry requires Rs. 3.5 lakh crore over next 10 years to capitalise state run banks
  • 251. Close loss making urban bank branches (9/4/2012)  74000 total branches are there in India  20 % are in Rural India  Only 5 % of 6 lakh villages in india have branches (5 % of 6,00,000 = 30000)  SBI alone has 16294 ATM
  • 252. Cheap Swiss Loans for Indian firms (10/4/2012)  Indian firms have raised debt at below 9 % in Switzerland including hedging cost  Local lenders in India would give at 11.5 % to 12%  Hedging cost in Swiss franc is about 10% to 15 % lower than US dollar
  • 253. Cheap Swiss Loans for Indian firms (10/4/2012)  Company $ million Swiss franc  SBI 325  REC 200  EXIM Bank 175  Union Bank 160  IDBI 110
  • 254. China Surprises with Trade Surplus (11/4/2012)  Feb 2012 Trade deficit of $ 31.5 billion  March 2012 Trade surplus of $ 5.35 billion  Exports to US 10.4 % up  Exports to EU 3.1 % down  Year Trade surplus  2008 $ 296  2009 $ 196  2010 $ 183  2011 $ 155
  • 255. SEBI new rule creates problems for PE(11/4/2012)  Alternative Investment Funds (AIF) cannot raise fresh funds unless registered with SEBI  Already PE firms are in midst of raising Rs. 26000 crores  In 2012 till March 2012 No. of PE funds 15 raised $ 2.23 billion  PE real estate funds 9 and raised $ 3.01 billion
  • 256. SEBI new rule creates problems for PE(11/4/2012)  New AIF rules mandate that investors should minimum invest Rs. 1 crore  Not more than 1000 investors should be there  Private Equity Fund Manager should contribute minimum 2.5 % of total corpus
  • 257. India Current Account Deficit threatens (11/4/2012)  Current Account Deficit 4.3 % of GDP  Current Account Deficit should not be more than 3 %  In 1991 crisis CAD had touched 4 %  1991 government had depreciated rupee by 24 % in 3 days  Borrowed $ 2.2 billion from IMF  Pledged 67 tonnes to gold with Bank of England and Swizz Bank to raise $ 600 million as foreign flows had dried up.
  • 258. India per capita income (16/4/2012)  India is above $ 1175 per capita income cut off for consessional IDA funds  2010 per capital GNI (In $)  Bangladesh 700  India 1330  Pakistan 1050  Vietnam 1160
  • 259. FII holding in FMCG (16/4/2012)  Company Mar12 Mar11 % rise  Colgate 20.20 18.72 1.48  Dabur 18.42 17.22 1.20  Godrej 25.31 19.48 5.83  HUL 19.43 17.26 2.17  ITC 17.40 14.04 3.36  Nestle 11.03 10.55 0.48  Tata Global 9.87 8.04 1.83  GSKconsumer 15.50 12.08 3.42
  • 260. India to increase IMF quota(23/4/2012)  India quota at IMF would increase from 2.44% to 2.75% after completion of quota reforms  In absolute terms, india quota would increase from SDR(Special Drawing Rights) 5821 million to SDR 13114 million
  • 261. Indian bond market attractive for FII (23/4/2012) (rs.crore)  Year FII Debt  2007 9428  2008 11772  2009 4563  2010 46408  2011 20292  2012 19213 (april 2012)  FII can invest $ 15 billion in Govt Bond  FII can invest $ 20 billion in Corp Bond  Corp bond in US give 1.95% and Germany 1.85 % while in India it is 9.6 %  Indian Govt Bonds yield is 8.2 %
  • 262. Reliance Result (23/4/2012)  Net Profit down 21 % to Rs. 4236 crores  Revenues up 16 % to Rs. 87000 crores  Oil and gas revenues fell 36.5%  refining and petrochemical segments rose 17.7% and 14%  Oil & Gas Net sales Rs12898 crore versus Rs 17250 crore, down 25.2% YoY  EBIT margin: 40.7% versus 36.8%, y-o-y  EBIT margin 3.3% versus 4.3% GRM $8.6/bbl versus $8.4/bbl
  • 263. Entry load in MF needed (25/4/2012)  Only 200 distributors have gross revenue of Rs. 1 crore  Out of this 200, 20 are banks and institutions  16000 odd active distributors only 185 IFA are earning Rs. 1 crore gross revenue  In Singapore front load is 3% and expense ratio is 2.5 %  Investors there pay in excess of 5 % to fund managers
  • 264. India to get higher IMF quota (26/4/2012)  India will pay Rs. 56,469 crores total for higher quota at IMF  Cash Rs. 14,346 crores  Rs. 42,123 crores in local currency bonds  Current Proposed  Quota  2.44 % 2.75%  Vote  2.34% 2.69%  Quotas are assigned on basis of country relative position in world economy. India will be among top 10 countries in terms of quota
  • 265. FDI Flows (26/4/2012)  Year Rs. Crores  2005-06 24,584  2006-07 56,390  2007-08 98,642  2008-09 1,42,829  2009-10 1,23,120  2010-11 88,520  2011-12 1,33,181
  • 266. China one child policy hurting ? (27/4/2012)  China has currently 120 million people between 20 and 24 years age  This would drop by 20 % in next decade  1979 china put one child policy  China population will peak at 1.4 billion in 2030  US couples have average 2 children  US and Europe took 100 years to become aging societies, China has taken less than 40 years to become aging society
  • 267. Mutual funds lose 8 lakh Equity folios (2/4/2012)  From Arpil 2011 to march 2012 over 8 lakh mutual fund equity folios have closed  AUM bifurcation (Rs. 5,87,000 crores)  Banks/ FI 2.3 %  Corporates 43.1%  FII 0.7%  HNI 26.6%  Retail 27.4 %
  • 268. GDP Growth Result of luck or efforts ? (27/4/2012)(Moneycontrol)  from 1985-86 to 1990-91, the economy grew by an average of 5.6 percent. In the next six years (1991-92 to 1996-97), which included the glory years of Manmohan Singh’s reforms, we grew by all of 5.7 percent. In other words, by just 0.1 percent more, despite the big-bang reforms.  In the six years after that (1997-98 to 2002-03, which covers the second half of the United Front government and most of the NDA), the economy actually tapered down to an average of 5.23 percent, before finally taking off by an average of 8.45 in the next eight years.  The rebound in the economy that started in the last year of the NDA (2003-04) continued till 2010-11 – a full eight years – with a strong dip in 2008-09 during the Lehman crisis.  What this suggests is that it is the 2003-11 period that was the aberration, and not the earlier periods, when we were doing 5-6 percent after reforms. Thus we could revert to this mean if we don’t reform aggressively now. But even if we do reform, we are likely to see a growth slowdown over the next three-to-five years because reform, by definition, means the system will have to adjust to new shocks. Shocks initially bring growth down: in the year after Manmohan Singh’s reforms, India’s GDP growth in 1991-92 crashed to 1.4 percent before rebounding to 5.4 percent.
  • 269. FCCB Woes for Indian companies (2/5/2012)  Company Issued Outstand Maturity  Tata steel 875 382 5sep 12  Tata motors 490 473 12July 12  JP Associate 400 354 12sep 12  JSW steel 325 274 28Jun 12  Suzlon Energy 300 211 12Jun 12
  • 270. 10 Top countries with highest gold reserves (2/5/2012)  Country Tonnes % of ForexRes  US 8133 77.1  Germany 3396 74  IMF 2814 --  Italy 2451 73.8  France 2435 73.3  China 1054 1.8  Switzerland 1040 18.6  Russia 879 9.7  Japan 765 3.3  Netherlands 612 62.5  Source:- World Gold Council
  • 271. BASEL III Norms (4/5/2012)  Basel III are guidelines framed by a committee of central banks that s based in Basel, Switzerland. RBI is also member of that committee.  Basel III has introduced many elements of capital such as clearly defined common capital that measures core equity capital in relation to its total risk weighted assets  Incremental equity requirement in Indian banking industry may go up as high as Rs.3.2 – 4 Trillion over next 6 years
  • 272. BASEL III Norms (4/5/2012)  Banks to maintain minimum 5.5 % in common equity as against 3.6% now by March 31, 2015  Banks must create a capital conservation buffer consisting of common equity of 2.5% by March 31, 2018  Banks should maintain a minimum overall capital adequacy ratio of 11.5% against 9 % by March 31, 2018  Banks must supplement risk based captial ratio by maintaining leverage ratio of 4.5%
  • 273. Reliance Fined Rs. 6600 crores (4/5/2012)  Year Planned output Actual  2009-10 27.62 39.31  2010-11 53.40 48.13  2011-12 61.88 38.61  2012-13 80.00 20.20  2013-14 80.00 14.00  Output fell as RIL did not drill wells as per Amended Initial Development Plan (AIDP)  RIL says drilling more well would not have helped due to unexpected geological complexitites
  • 274. PE and P/BV of Blue Chip Stocks (capital market April 2012) page 8  Company Debt/Equity PE P/BV  RIL 0.5 12 1.6  Tata Steel 1.9 5.0 1.3  Rcom 0.8 23.3 0.4  ICICI Bank 0.0 16.2 1.8  L&T 1.3 18.7 3.2  DLF 0.8 25.1 1.4  Suzlon 1.8 16.5 0.6  JP Associat 3.5 22.3 1.6
  • 275. Infrastructure Sector (capital market page 11 april 2012)  Rs. 50 lakh crore in 12th Five year plan (2012-2017)  Half to come from private sector  Investment in infrastructure was 5.7% of GDP in Eleventh five year plan and now it is 8% in last year of 12th Five year plan.  FII investment limit in govt bonds, corp bonds increased from $ 5 billion to $ 20 billion in govt bonds and $ 25 billion in corp bonds  Withdrawal tax on interest payment has been reduced from 20 % to 5 % for 3 years  Investment linked deduction for capital expenditure increased at 150 % from 100% cold chain, warehouse, hospitals, fertilizer, affordable housing.
  • 276. Debentures trading at discount to face value (capital market page 81 april 2012)  Company Rate (%) MP Rating  Shiram tran 11.35 995 AA+  Muthoot Fin 12.25 977 AA-  IndiaInfoline 11.70 952 AA-  Religare Finv 12.25 983 AA-  FV Rs. 1000.
  • 277. Equity for all (8/5/2012)  Equity as an asset class has grown to nearly $ 55 trillion at end of 2010  This is near to 87 % of world GDP  India has 1.5 crore individuals out of 2.5 crores tax payees  Even if 1 crore invest Rs. 50,000 in Rajiv Gandhi Equity scheme the corpus comes to be Rs. 50,000 crore  This can act as counter force to FII
  • 278. Equity for all (8/5/2012)  Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme  France adopted this strategy in Loi Monory scheme in late 1970  In five years household investment in France in equities increased from 7 % to 17%  Germany, Belgium and Sweden also copied this scheme with good results  In Sweden one sixth of population was converted into investors in equity.
  • 279. World Biggest companies (10/5/2012) ($ billion)  Company Sales Market value  Exon Mobil 433.5 407.4  JPMorgan Chase 110.8 170.1  General Electric 147.3 213.7  Royal Dutch Shell 470.2 227.6  ICBC 82.6 237.4  HSBC Holding 102 164.3  PetroChina 310.1 294.7  Berkshire Hathway 143.7 202.2  Wells Fargo 87.6 178.8  Petrobras Brasil 145.9 180.0
  • 280. Mumbai Home Prices (14/5/2012)  Avg price per square feet (Rs)  June 2008 8100  June 2009 5600  March 2012 10833  Total unsold stock is 120.42 million square feet. At current absorption rate, it could take 40 months to get rid of this inventory
  • 281. Mumbai Home Prices (14/5/2012)  No of months needed to sell Inventory (2011-12)  Q1 40  Q2 36  Q3 44  Q4 40  Sales are up 3 % from year ago and 20 % since last quarter
  • 282. Inflation rises (14/5/2012)  Inflation spiked to 7.23% on the back of higher manufacturing and food inflation. Analysts on average had expected it around 6.7%.
  • 283. Sensex 1986 to 2012 (17/5/2012)  Event Year High Low  Harshad scam 92 4487 2131  Dotcom Bust 2000 5934 3181  Global melt 2008 20827 8966  Euro 2010 20852 15175
  • 284. Sensex 1986 to 2012 (17/5/2012)  Year Min Ret Max Ret prob of loss  1 year -25.3 % 84.5% 25.8%  2 year -15.4% 66.1% 20.0%  3 year -11.7% 58.3% 6.9%  5 year -3.4% 44.8% 7.0%  10 year 1 % 31.1% 0.0%
  • 285. Spain again into Recession (18/5/2012)  Spain has again slipped into recession  It has go offer 5 % to attract buyers with year of 5.106 % vs 3.374 % for 3 year bonds
  • 286. Rupee vs IT sector (18/5/2012)  1 % fall in rupee results in 30-40 basis point rise in operating margins  Out of $ 100 billion export revenue of IT and BPO of Indian sector, 58 % was from US.
  • 287. Gold demand in China more than India (18/5/2012)  India gold demand at 207.6 tonnes  China gold demand at 255 tonnes  Gold ETF have grown 3 times in last one year  AUM of Gold ETF is Rs. 9614 crore in January 2012 vs Rs 3518 crores in January 2011
  • 288. PE/VC Investment in Healthcare (18/5/2012)  In Care Hospitals – Advent India PE invested Rs. 560 crores  In Vasan Healthcare – Govt of Singapore investment corp invested Rs. 543 crores  Moolchand healthcare – Seqola Capital invested Rs. 100 crores  Wellspring Healthcare – Reliance venture capital invested Rs. 20.5 crores
  • 289. Foreign claims on India $ 137 billion due in 1 year (18/5/2012)  As per Bank for International Settlement, claim due on india in next one year is $ 137 billion  Currently india has $ 293 billion forex reserves  European banks account for 40 % of India total foreign dues  Leaving UK out, India Euro Zone exposure is about $ 60 billion which is 3.4 % of India GDP
  • 290. Face book IPO big hit (19/5/2012)  the company's closely watched stock began trading at USD 42.05, compared with an IPO price of USD 38 .  USD 18.4 billion in one of the biggest initial public offerings in US history.  With a value of USD 104 billion, Facebook became the first American company to debut at over a USD 100 billion. It is larger than Starbucks Corp and Hewlett-Packard combined.  The website, founded in a Harvard dorm room in 2004, has grown into the world's dominant social network with 900 million users.
  • 291. Facebook highly overvalued (21/5/2012)  PE for face book is at 108  PE for market in US 14  PE for Google is 18  Price to Sales Facebook 26  Price to Sales LinkedIn 17  Google makes $ 35 for each user which is 7 times more than Facebook
  • 292. Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)  Indian deposits in Swiss Banks  Year ExRate Liability % of  towardIndian total Liabi  2010 47.79 9295 0.13  2009 45.19 8879 0.13  2008 45.52 10924 0.12  2007 34.79 14979 0.18  2006 36.17 23373 0.29
  • 293. Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)  FDI Inflows (2001 to 2011)  Mauritius 41.80% Japan 4.07%  Singapore 9.17% Cyprus 3.71%  USA 7.28% Germany 2.31%  UK 5.12% France 1.75%  Netherland 4.39% UAE 1.46%
  • 294. Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)  Swiss bank liability towards countries in 2010  Foreigners hold More Money  Offshore financial centre 28.9%  UK 21.5%  USA 15.8%  European countries 6.8%  Germany 3.6%
  • 295. Corporate Debt Restructuring becomes more strict (22/5/2012)  CDR is a platform where lenders and corporates meet to restructure loan  Objective is to ensure that company does enter financial trap  Company promoters misuse company funds and then go to CDR  Banks now to hike promoter contribution to 20-25 % and seek personal guarantee  Banks to have power to change incompetent management if found diversion of funds or misuse of funds  Banks have to restructure loans worth Rs. 1,50,000 crores
  • 296. India still better than world (23/5/2012)  GDP 2011 2012 2013  USA 1.7 2.4 2.6  UK 0.7 0.5 1.9  Eurozone 1.5 -0.1 0.9  OECD 1.8 1.6 2.2  China 9.2 8.3 9.3  India 7.3 7.1 7.7
  • 297. IPO fails (30/5/2012)  Year IPO % Sensex%  3 years -18.69 4.71  1 year -18.59 -10.12  6 months 1.79 1.54
  • 298. Venture Funding picking up (31/5/2012)  From January to May 2012 64 new start up got Rs. 1351 crores of venture funding  In 2011, funding in first time ventures crossed $ 1 billion mark
  • 299. GDP at 9 year low (31/5/2012)  GDP at 5.3 % which is at 9 year low  India’s economy grew 5.3% during January-March (Q4), the eighth successive quarterly decline, and the slowest pace in nine years. For the full year, the economy grew 6.5%.  India's fiscal deficit during the 2011-12 fiscal year that ended in March was Rs 5,20,000 crore, or equivalent to 5.9% of India's gross domestic product
  • 300. Why buy gold ? (4/6/2012)  35 % buy for auspicious events like marriage,  20 % buy as investment  16% buy as back up for bad times  15 % buy for giving gifts  8% impulses or no reason  6% Fond of gold
  • 301. Eurozone revamp (4/6/2012)  July 9 is the deadline for creating Permanent Euro Area Rescue fund, the $ 620 billion European Stability Mechanism
  • 302. Indian Inc Improving but slowly (4/6/2012)  Analysis of 2302 companies in march 2012  Revenue increased by 13.5% yoy  Net Profit fall 8 % in March 2012 as compared to 20.6 % in Dec 2011 and 37.9% in Sep 2011  Operating Profit margin at 14.3 %  Interest cost jumped to 47.4% to Rs.30,123 crores is at record high in history of Indian Inc.  Interest Coverage Ratio is at 3.8 vs 3.4 which is heartening (ICR should go up)
  • 303. FII net sellers in May (7/6/2012)  FII were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 1100 crores in May  FII confidence low as policy paralysis hitting all reforms  Month FII flows (Rs.Crores)  Jan-Feb + 44000 crores  March + 8000 crores  April - 777 crores  May - 1100 crores
  • 304. China cuts rate (8/6/2012)  China has cut one year deposit rate from 3.5 % to 3.25 %  Lending rate cut from 6.56 % to 6.31%  Rate cut after 2008 to boost economy
  • 305. Active managed funds create wealth (11/6/2012)  Fund 5 years return %  IDFC premier equity 15.31  UTI opportunities 12.69  ING Vysya Dividend yield 12.16  Birla Sun life Dividend yield 11.92  UTI MNC 11.78  Birla Sun life MNC 11.70  Tata Dividend Yield 11.45  UTI Dividend yield 11.42  ICIC Pru Discovery fund 11.13  HDFC Top 200 10.12  Canara Robeco Equity 10.16  NIFTY INDEX 3.54%
  • 306. Years of NIL return from Indexes world over (11/6/2012)  Country Years with NIL return  Japan Nikki 225 29.3  Spain IBEX 35 15.12  France CAC 40 14.95  UK FTSE 100 14.45  Germany DAX 13.95  US Nasdaq 12.95  Russia Micex 6.36  US Dow Jones 5.53  China Shangai 5.53  Brazil 5.03  India Sensex 4.78  From 1992 to 2003 Sensex actually reduced by 33 % i.e long holding of 11 years
  • 307. FII no and sub accounts (11/6/2012)  As on June 8, the number of registered FIIs in the country stood at 1,754 and total number of sub-accounts were 6,343 during the same period.
  • 308. Gold Prices reality (14/6/2012)  In FY 2011-12, India imported $ 56 billion worth of Gold  August 1, 2011 gold was $ 1621 per ounce  June 8, 2012 gold was $ 1571 per ounce  Loss of 3 %  But during the same period Rupee depreciated from Rs. 44.07 to 55.62 per USD  Rupee fell by 26.19 %  Gold during period rise from Rs.23150 to Rs. 29680 per 10 grams
  • 309. PE Struggle to Exit broking houses (15/6/2012) ($ million)  Company PE Stake Amt  Prime Security Newvernon 6.8 12.4  Bonanza Gaja capital 11.6 5.94  Karvy Baring Asia  ICIC venture 40 110  Angel IFC 12.5 37  PL Balyasny 2.8 10  JRG Baring India 45.9 35  Anandrathi Citi 19.83 20
  • 310. Motilal Oswal raises Rs. 475 crores for 2nd PE fund (20/6/2012)  Motilal Oswal has raised Rs. 475 crores  Out of 475 crores – Rs. 100 crores from Hong kong based Sqandran Capital Advisor  Remaining Rs. 375 crore from HNI investors
  • 311. “Rcom poster boy for everything that could go wrong” (20/6/2012)  Neeraj Monga of Veritas Investment Research believes various mergers and amalgamations have led to the Rs 22,000 crore “inflated book equity” of Reliance Communications  The stock is trading at Rs 60. So the market doesn’t really believe in the book value of the company. We’ve just come out and said it very clearly,” he claims.  In its June 8 report, the Canada-based equity research had assigned a value of Rs 15 to the stock of Anil Ambani-promoted telecom firm, citing high debt, "whimsical" accounting policies and poor corporate governance standards as the key reasons.
  • 312. India contributes to IMF war chest (21/6/2012)  Country Contribution to IMF  India $ 10 billion  Brazil $ 10 billion  Russia $ 10 billion  China $ 43 billion  South Africa $ 2 billion  IMF will issue bonds and pay interest to countries. This is war chest that IMF has made which has $ 456 billion but target is to create $ 550 billion
  • 313. Electricity shortfall (21/6/2012)  Region Installed Supply Shortfall  North 49919 39798 10121  West 57108 46330 10778  South 39645 32763 6882  East 29802 21057 8745  N East 2095 1697 399  This reduces industrial production and adds to idle capacity causing losses to companies  Figures in Mega watts
  • 314. Manufacturing slows down world over (22/6/2012)  China factory sector shrank for eight straight month in June  PMI fall to seven month low of 48.1 in June from 48.4  US PMI has come down to 52.9 from 54.0  10 year Spain and Italy bonds are quoting 7 % yield showing that attracting investors is becoming more difficult
  • 315. Claim Settlement Ratio for insurance firms (22/6/2012)  Company Settlement Ratio Pending %  LIC 97.03 1.46  HDFC life 95.41 0.61  Birla sun life 94.66 0.35  ICICI 94.61 2.25  ING Vysya 90.49 5.19  Private Sector (overall) 86.05 5.01
  • 316. PMLA getting tough (22/6/2012)  69,224 suspicious transactions received by FIU India  53,384 reports were forwarded to Law Enforcement agencies and Intelligence agency  Travel agents, vehicle dealers have to report to FIU Ind for suspicious dealings
  • 317. Weak show of MF SEBI ask questions (22/6/2012)  SEBI planning to call MF fund managers who have consistently performed badly  Scheme Return% Benchmark %  JM Basic -10.30 5.52  Escorts Power -9.17 -13.05  JM Core 11 -9.07 5.17  SBI Infra fund -5.96 5.22  L&T Infra -5.56 5.87
  • 318. FCCB Issuers may Default (22/6/2012)  3i infotech, Great offshore and Hotel Leela ventures may default  48 companies hold FCCB that mature this year  Value of FCCB maturing this year $ 5 billion of which $ 2.1 billion will come up for June and July 2012  Rupee in 2007-08 Was Rs. 42 per $  In 2012 it is Rs. 56 per $  The depreciation could add Rs. 10,000 crore on redemptions
  • 319. CCI imposes Rs. 6307 crore fine on 11 cement companies (20/6/2012)  Company Penalty (Rs. Crore)  Jaiprakash Asso 1323  Ultra Tech cement 1175  Ambuja Cement 1163  ACC 1147  Lafarge India 480  Century Textiles 274  Madras cement 258  India cement 187  Binani cement 167  JK cement 128  CMA 0.73
  • 320. FMC cautions for trade changes code (26/6/2012)  Client code modification is done to transfer trade from one account to another account  It is mostly done in Jan, Feb and March to avoid tax  From October 2011 to march 2012 CCM was 1373 from 1,00,620 in October 2010 to March 2011  In terms of volume it has reduced from Rs. 25000 crore to Rs. 216 crore
  • 321. FII power (28/6/2012)  FII have assets under custody of more than $ 200 billion  17 % of market capitalization  40% of free float shares in Indian stock market  FII invested $ 32 billion in Indian debt market
  • 322. Bittersweet Ethanol Pricing (28/6/2012)  Government has decided Rs. 27 per litre for ethanol to be sold to oil companies  Earlier price was Rs. 21 per litre  Oil companies say that cost of making petrol is Rs. 23 per litre and paying more than this for making ethanol will make blending unviable
  • 323. On mobile Corporate Governance issues (29/6/2012)  KPMG checking Onmobile books for financial bungling Rs. 3000 crore mkt value in 2008  Rs. 400 crore current market value  CEO Arvind Rao who is founder is at center of investigation for taking away funds  Again Corporate Governance issue shows that wealth of shareholders destroyed  Stock trading at Rs. 33 lowest in lifetime
  • 324. Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)  Share of Agri & Allied activity in GDP (%)  Year %  1970-71 43.9  1980-81 38.3  1990-91 33.0  2000-01 25.3  2011-12 16.0  Store capacity in large dams was 177 billion cubic meter in 1995 which is currently at 253 billion cubic meter
  • 325. Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)  Rainfall % of normal Agri Growth %  2007-08 106 % 5.5  2008-09 98% 0.4  2009-10 78% 1.7  2010-11 102% 7.0  2011-12 101% 2.8
  • 326. Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)  Monsoon Deviation % Inflation %  2007-08 6% 4.8%  2008-09 -2 % 8.0%  2009-10 -22% 3.6%  2010-11 2 % 8.6%  2011-12 1 % 8.8%
  • 327. Textile sector loan recast (2/7/2012)  Textile sector has debt of Rs. 35000 crore  35 million workers work in textile sector  The package involves Rs. 22000 crore term loan, Rs. 5500 crore working capital loan and Rs. 7500 crore loan for SME units.
  • 328. Airlines Industry wants FDI (3/7/2012)  Airlines Industry growing at 20 % per annum  By 2015, 180 million people in India to travel by airways  Indian Aviation sector 9th largest in world
  • 329. Barclay CEO Robert Diamond in LIBOR mess (5/7/2012)  Robert Diamond the CEO of Barclay bank has step down  Barclay has been accused in manipulating LIBOR which is international rate for lending and borrowing.
  • 330. PE investors invest in real estate (5/7/2012)  Target Acquirer RS crore  Sheth Devel Morgan stanley 461  3C company Red Fort 150  RMZ Corp Baring Pvt Equ 500  Phoenix Ascendas 176  Suntech Reality Kotak 310
  • 331. Globally banks cut rates (6/7/2012)  ECB cuts rates by 0.25 % which now bring rate to 0.75 %  China reduced 1 year lending rates by 31bps and deposit rate by 25 bps
  • 332. Mumbai real estate slow down (6/7/2012)  In Mumbai 80,000 residential units are unsold  Value comes to Rs. 1,00,000 crore  Buyers shun property market due to poor sentiment and higher Interest rates
  • 333. Reasons for China slowdown (9/7/2012)  China has $ 2.5 trillion forex reserve but household and corporation debt is 120 % of GDP and including banks it goes to 200% of GDP  Real estate bubble as $ 10 trillion is in money circulation than in US $ 8 trillion  China has invested 9 % of GDP in real estate which is now bubble which is even higher than Japan and US which was real estate bust in 2007  In last 3 decades research on 124 nations shows that 52 % were democratic and 48 % authoritarian. Political system does’nt matter for growth
  • 334. EU stock market return post Euro introduction (9/7/2012)  Returns since euro  launched  Belgium -37 %  Finland -8%  France -20%  Germany -28%  Greece -77%  Ireland -36%  Italy -58%  Netherlands -42%  Portugal -57%  Spain -42%
  • 335. MF Distributes commission despite ban (11/7/2012)  Top 240 distributors have earned Rs. 1830 crore commission in FY 12  This is 8 % more than last year  HSBC, HDFC and Citibank have earned the most  30,000 small agents are out of business since they could not run without commission  45 % of equity fund sales comes from Independent Advisors as against 29 % by banks
  • 336. Banks mobilize NRE deposits (11/7/2012)  Banks mobilize $ 10 billion through NRE deposits  Banks are offering 9 % to NRE deposits for one year
  • 337. Arbitrage funds score over debt and equity funds (17/7/2012)  Arbitrage Funds 1 year return (%)  IDFC 9.8  JM 9.4  UTI spread 9.3  Reliance arbitrage 9.2  SBI arbitrage 9.1  HDFC arbitrage 8.9  Kotak equity arbitrage 8.9  Religare arbitrage 8.8  Debt funds have given avg return of 8.4 % while equity funds value dipped by 4.1 %
  • 338. Gold demand rises (30/7/2012)  Indian households have $ 950 billion gold  US Mine production data  2010 231 tonnes  2011 237 tonnes  US Geelogical survey reports US has 3000 tonnes of Gold reserves  North America accounted for 16.1 % of total output in 2011
  • 339. Gold funds failed as compared to Gold ETF (30/7/2012)  Funds One year return %  SBI Gold ETF 28.04  Reliance Gold ETF 28.03  Religare gold ETF 28.01  UTI gold ETF 27.97  Quantum gold 27.96  DSP Blackrock world gold -11.5  AIG world gold fund -16.5
  • 340. FII buys in July (30/7/2012)  During July 3-27, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were gross buyers of shares worth Rs 44,192 crore, while they sold equities amounting to Rs 35,768 crore, translating into a net inflow of Rs 8,424 crore  After taking the latest inflows into account, FIIs investment in the equity market stood at Rs 50,417 crore so far in 2012 and Rs 24,048 crore into the debt market during the same period.  As on July 27, the number of registered FIIs in the country stood at 1,756 and total number of sub-accounts were 6,341 during the same period. 
  • 341. FII investment in 2012 in Rs. Crore (2/8/2012)  Month Net FII Flow  January 10357  February 25212  March 8381  April -1109  May -347  June -501  July 10271
  • 342. Proposed STT to hurt market  AT present investor pays Rs. 100 per Rs. 1 lakh turnover on delivery base tranaction  Rs. 17.33 per lakh on sale of derivatives.  Service tax of 12.36%  This increases the transaction cost
  • 343. Eye on low tax paying sector (4/9/2012)  Corporate tax is 30% but average tax rate comes to 24 %  Certain taxes are in range of 10% to 22%  If the average tax rate is incresed from 24 % to 26% then also govt will get Rs. 30,000 crores
  • 344. Exports down 35 month low (4/9/2012)  For april to july 2012, exports have fallen by 5% to % 97.6 billion compared with $ 102.8 billion las year  Slow down in exports clear show that world economy is slowing
  • 345. PMI data for world (4/9/2012)  Countries July August  India 52.9 52.8  Russia 52.0 51.0  UK 45.2 49.5  China 49.3 47.6  France 43.4 46.0  Germany 43.0 44.7  Spain 42.3 44.0
  • 346. Two wheelers on bumpy road (6/9/2012)  Company Fall in sales in August  Hero Motocorp - 12 %  Bajaj Auto - 14%  Hondo motorcycle 39 %  TVS - 17%  Suzuki Motorcycle 36 %  Mahindra - 34 %
  • 347. MCX-SX, BSE and NSE fees  MCX-SX NSE BSE  Admission 5 lac 5 lakh 5000(Eq +FO)  2.5 lac equity  Deposit 20 lac 1.5cr 30 lac  75lac(eq)  Networth 30lac 1 cr 30lac(Eq)  75 lac 25lac (FO)

Editor's Notes

  1. Country No of stores Mexico 2353 Central America 642 UK 565 Brazil 558 Japan