Briceno 2 Sophia Briceno Professor Elizabeth Nappo ENC 1102 December 2, 2022 Alternative Solution to Anxiety and Depression. Anxiety and depression have been prevalent issues in the United States and other parts of the world since the beginning of time. Anxiety and depression, which manifest in a variety of ways, can have a negative impact on people of all ages. Despite the fact that the first person to develop an addiction has never been identified, it is a widely held belief (Freeman, 2020). It has exacted a significant toll on the younger generation in recent years, which is especially concerning given the ongoing global epidemic. Many people do not prioritize their mental health and do not believe it should be one of their primary concerns. When, in fact, one's mental health is absolutely necessary in order to complete mundane tasks like going to class or working a job. As a result of increased focus on the topic from a wide range of fields, the state of people's mental health has been elevated to the status of a critical problem in today's society. Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, a sizable minority of people continue to believe that medication is the only way to treat mental health issues, despite the fact that the vast majority of people understand the importance of mental health (Ginsburg, 2020). This essay will coherently argue the alternative solutions to anxiety and depression. In that case, getting enough sleep and maintain a stable diet are the solutions other than medication that are discussed in below paragraphs. Despite this, a significant number of people either do not give mental health the attention it deserves or do not believe it is all that important. Some people are also responsible for contributing to the stigma associated with mental illness. A little more than half of those polled in the General Social Survey in 2020 said they would not want a member of their family or a close friend to marry, work next to, or spend the night out with someone who had a mental illness (Knowles, 2020). People who have mental health issues may be hesitant to seek help because they are afraid of the stigma that may be attached to them if they do, which is a significant issue. The findings of this 2020 survey show that many American households continue to struggle with the concept of accepting mental health issues in their loved ones. According to a 2020 statement from Zhang, "many people believe that people with mental illnesses are aggressive and dangerous." In fact, they are more likely to be assaulted or to injure themselves than they are to cause harm to others. People suffering from mental illnesses such as anxiety and depression are less likely to seek alternative treatments and are more likely to rely on excessive medication if these stereotypes are perpetuated. I do not believe that these points of view are valid, and I believe that they are harmful to people seeking treatment. We can be thankful that there has been .

1. Briceno 2
Sophia Briceno
Professor Elizabeth Nappo
ENC 1102
December 2, 2022
Alternative
Solution
to Anxiety and Depression.
Anxiety and depression have been prevalent issues in the United
States and other parts of the world since the beginning of time.
Anxiety and depression, which manifest in a variety of ways,
can have a negative impact on people of all ages. Despite the
fact that the first person to develop an addiction has never been
identified, it is a widely held belief (Freeman, 2020). It has
exacted a significant toll on the younger generation in recent
years, which is especially concerning given the ongoing global
epidemic. Many people do not prioritize their mental health and
do not believe it should be one of their primary concerns. When,
in fact, one's mental health is absolutely necessary in order to
complete mundane tasks like going to class or working a job. As
a result of increased focus on the topic from a wide range of
fields, the state of people's mental health has been elevated to

2. the status of a critical problem in today's society. Despite
mounting evidence to the contrary, a sizable minority of people
continue to believe that medication is the only way to treat
mental health issues, despite the fact that the vast majority of
people understand the importance of mental health (Ginsburg,
2020). This essay will coherently argue the alternative solutions
to anxiety and depression. In that case, getting enough sleep and
maintain a stable diet are the solutions other than medication
that are discussed in below paragraphs.
Despite this, a significant number of people either do not give
mental health the attention it deserves or do not believe it is all
that important. Some people are also responsible for
contributing to the stigma associated with mental illness. A
little more than half of those polled in the General Social
Survey in 2020 said they would not want a member of their
family or a close friend to marry, work next to, or spend the
night out with someone who had a mental illness (Knowles,
2020). People who have mental health issues may be hesitant to
seek help because they are afraid of the stigma that may be
attached to them if they do, which is a significant issue. The
findings of this 2020 survey show that many American
households continue to struggle with the concept of accepting
mental health issues in their loved ones.
According to a 2020 statement from Zhang, "many people
believe that people with mental illnesses are aggressive and

3. dangerous." In fact, they are more likely to be assaulted or to
injure themselves than they are to cause harm to others. People
suffering from mental illnesses such as anxiety and depression
are less likely to seek alternative treatments and are more likely
to rely on excessive medication if these stereotypes are
perpetuated. I do not believe that these points of view are valid,
and I believe that they are harmful to people seeking treatment.
We can be thankful that there has been work done to bring
attention to depression and other mental health issues.
Many researchers and psychologists have tried to figure out why
using social media more is linked to getting depressed. A recent
study of more than 500 8th–12th graders and a review of
national data on suicide deaths for ages 13–18 showed that
depressive symptoms, suicide outcomes, and the number of
suicides were all 33 percent higher between 2010 and 2015.
(Twenge et al., 2018). During the same time period as the study,
the number of female teens who killed themselves rose by 65%.
The study showed that young people who spent more time with
new media like social media and tech gadgets like smartphones
were more likely to have mental health problems. But the
results showed that teens who spent less time in front of screens
and did other things were more likely to improve their mental
health. These non-traditional treatments for depression and
anxiety have been shown to be effective, and the evidence
supporting their efficacy is unequivocal and irrefutable. Studies

4. conducted by prestigious institutions such as Harvard
University and The Lancet Psychiatry, as well as our own
personal experiences, have demonstrated that medication is not
always the solution to mental health issues. We should not turn
our backs on young people who are going through difficult
emotional times; rather, we should show them that it is natural
and appropriate to seek support from others. Especially given
the current state of affairs, where it is unclear when life will
return to normal. We must unite as a nation if we are not to be
weakened by the difficulties we are currently facing. It could
mean the difference between life and death for these children
and their future children.
When it comes to finding solutions for mental health issues, a
nutritionally sound diet is an essential component. I did not eat
well during the epidemic. Fast food and takeout meals made up
the vast majority of my diet. My parents encouraged me to
change my eating habits and live a healthier lifestyle after they
noticed. This is probably why I was always exhausted and
uninspired: when they noticed, they urged me to change my
eating habits and live a healthier lifestyle. I didn't want to do it
at first, but I realized that if I didn't, the situation would
worsen. I was surprised to discover that after only a few weeks,
I was beginning to notice improvements in both my behavior
and my mood. This is supported by an essay written by Harvard
Medical School Professor Eva Selhub (Eysenck, 2018) "Your

5. brain, like an expensive automobile, may be destroyed if you
drink anything other than premium gasoline," she said. "If you
drink anything other than premium gasoline, your brain may be
destroyed." What you put into your body influences not only
your mood and energy levels, but also your cognitive
performance. "Eating high-quality meals with plenty of
vitamins, minerals, and antioxidants nourishes the brain and
protects it from oxidative stress," she says. The "waste"
produced by the body's use of oxygen may be harmful to cells,
according to her, and she recommends "eating high-quality
meals with plenty of vitamins, minerals, and antioxidants."
According to Mental Health America, people who are deficient
in vitamin D are more likely to experience depression than the
general population. Seasonal affective disorder (SAD) is a type
of depression that typically begins in the fall, lasts through the
winter, and improves as soon as the weather warms up. Dieting
is a simple and quick method for significantly improving your
health and well-being.
One of the many reasons to seek out alternative treatments is
the possibility that taking too much medication to treat anxiety
and depression can sometimes worsen the condition. When we
are alone with our thoughts, we may be able to convince
ourselves that everything is fine and that there is nothing to
worry about in terms of our mental health. As a result of the
global epidemic, I, for one, have only recently begun to give

6. mental health the attention it deserves. I was surprised at how
mentally draining it was to spend the entire day alone in my
house. Other people's repeated comments that I appeared
exhausted and distracted jolted me awake to the reality of the
situation. After hearing what they had to say, I realized that I
needed to make some changes to the way I had been conducting
myself up to this point. As an example, make sure you get
enough sleep every night. According to a Stanford Medicine
School study, the vast majority of high school students in the
United States (more than 87 percent, according to the most
recent national survey) sleep far less than the recommended
eight to ten hours per night. They also use the story of a young
woman named Carolyn Walworth to demonstrate their point.
Carolyn Walworth, seventeen, usually reaches her breaking
point around 11 p.m. and sobs uncontrollably (Mental Health
Foundation, 2020). For the next ten minutes, she does nothing
but sit in her seat and cry because the constant pressures at
school are too much for her to bear. She needs to sleep a lot
because she is exhausted. She will have additional assignments
to complete, whether in physics, mathematics, or French;
however, she is aware that she must persevere. She usually goes
to bed between midnight and 12:30 a.m. This girl's inability to
sleep was obviously causing her a great deal of emotional
distress, and getting a good night's rest is one of the most
important things in the world. In 2016, The Lancet Psychiatry

7. researchers collaborated with 26 institutions in the United
Kingdom to conduct a randomized controlled trial of digital
cognitive behavioral therapy for students suffering from
depression. Students who received the treatment and maintained
a consistent sleeping routine were found to be less likely to
suffer from insomnia, depression, and anxiety. "Sleep is
essential—it is as necessary to our bodies as eating, drinking,
and breathing, and it is critical for maintaining excellent mental
and physical health," writes O'Sullivan (2016). It's difficult to
overestimate the value of a good night's sleep every night.
Works Cited
Eysenck, M. W., & Fajkowska, M. (2018). Anxiety and
depression: toward overlapping and distinctive features.
Cognition and Emotion, 32(7), 1391-1400.
Foundation, Mental Health. “Stigma and Discrimination.”
Mental Health Foundation, 10 Feb. 2020.
Freeman, D., Sheaves, B., Waite, F., Harvey, A. G., & Harrison,
P. J. (2020). Sleep disturbance and psychiatric disorders. The
Lancet Psychiatry, 7(7), 628-637.
Ginsburg, Larry. “Why Routines Are Important for Mental
Health - Behavioral Health, COVID19, Featured, Health
Topics.” Hackensack Meridian Health, 2 June 2020.
Knowles, K. A., & Olatunji, B. O. (2020). Specificity of trait
anxiety in anxiety and depression: Metaanalysis of the State-

8. Trait Anxiety Inventory. Clinical Psychology Review, 82,
101928.
O'Sullivan, Chris. “The Importance of Sleep.” Mental Health
Foundation, 14 Oct. 2016.
Twenge, J. M., Joiner, T. E., Martin, G., & Rogers, M. L.
(2018). Amount of time online is problematic if it displaces
face-to-face social interaction and sleep.
Zhang, Y., Zhang, H., Ma, X., & Di, Q. (2020). Mental health
problems during the COVID-19 pandemics and the mitigation
effects of exercise: a longitudinal study of college students in
China. International journal of environmental research and
public health, 17(10), 3722.
APPL Forecast. FP&AFinal Project. Forecasted Financial
Statements and Comparative AnalysisInstruction. (Remove this
part once your work is done.)Proejct Company: Apple Inc.(1)
Describe all the justifications and explanations of the
requirements on the Word.Financial Analyst: Paul Ahn, CPA(2)
Research to justify all the hard inputs. Explain with WHY it
should be and WHERE you get the info by pasting the URL link
as an evidence on Word.(3) If calculated, then explan with
HOW you compute the outcomes on Word.Part I. Assumption
Table ($ million, %)* Tips! To get a higher grade, use as many
independent assumptions on accounts in each quarter as possible

9. with research support, rather than just using the same % of sales
throughout the forecasted quarters.1. Forecasting
Assumptions.2022 Q3 Actual2022 FQ42023 FQ12023 FQ22023
FQ3 Forecasted financial statements must be reasonable and
realistic along with contemporary events and issues of the
firm.Comprehensive Income Statement items: All the I/S items
must be dealt in the Assumption part.All the I/S items must be
distinguished as % of Sales or trend methods and be justified.
Sales forecasted ($
million)82,95988,576129,80396,40986,473Sales forecast must
be linked to a sales forecasting model and be justified. Cost of
Sales (% of sales)-56.7%57.0%58.0%59.0% R&D Exp (% of
sales)-8.2%-8.5%-8.5%-9.0%-9.0% SG&A Exp (% of sales)-
3.9%-4.0%-4.5%-4.5%-4.0% Depr. & Amort. (% of fixed
assets)6.4%6.4%6.4%6.4%6.4% Other Income (% of
sales)0.9%1.0%1.0%1.1%1.1% Tax rate (% of income before
tax)-15.7%-15.7%-15.7%-15.7%-15.7% Dividend (% of net
Income, payout ratio)-19.3%-20.0%-15.0%-25.0%-27.0%
Stock Repurchase Program (% of net income)-113.1%90.0%-
80.0%70.0%60.0% * Include or delete the I/S items according
to the chosen company's I/SBalance Sheet accounts: All the B/S
accounts with hard inputs or trend methods must be dealt in the
Assumption part.All the B/S accounts must be distinguished as
% of Sales or trend methods and be justified. Current
Marketable Securities ($ million)25%26%27%28%29% Non-

10. current Marketable Securities ($
million)158%155%150%145%140% Property, plant and
equipment, net40,33543,96844,62127545,929At least one B/S
account must be forecasted by Trend Method and linked to the
Assumption part. Commercial paper (% annual interest
rate)2.0%2.5%2.5%3.0%3.0% Short-term debt (% annual
interest rate)2.0%2.5%2.5%3.0%3.0% Long-term debt (%
annual interest rate)3.0%3.5%3.5%4.0%4.0% * Include or
delete the B/S accounts according to the chosen company's
B/SPart II. Financial Planning with Forecasted Financial
Statements ($ million)1. Income Statement for the quarter
ended% of sales2022 Q3 Actual2022 FQ42023 FQ12023
FQ22023 FQ3Total net sales100%82,959How gets this
forecasted sales, which forecasting model, why this model, is
this forecasted sales justifiable in 4 quartersLess Cost of sales-
57%(47,074)still the same % of sales? Then why? could be
changed? Then why? Gross margin43%35,885Less Operating
expenses: Research and development-8.2%(6,797)still the
same % of sales? Then why? could be changed? Then why?
Selling, general, and administrative-3.9%(3,266)still the same
% of sales? Then why? could be changed? Then why?
Depreciation & Amortization -3.3%(2,746)must be extracted if
I/S doesn't present Total operating expenses-
15.4%(12,809)still the same % of sales? Then why? could be
changed? Then why? Operating Income28%23,076Other Income

11. (Expense, excluding interest)0.9%709still the same % of sales?
Then why? could be changed? Then why? Interest expense-
0.9%(719)must extract if I/S doesn't present, must link to all the
interest bearing debtsIncome before tax28%23,066Less
Provision for Income tax-4%(3,624)still the same % of sales?
Then why? could be changed? Then why? Net
Income23%19,442(Dividend)-5%(3,760)still the same % of
sales? Then why? could be changed? Then why? (Stock
Repurchased)-27%(21,991)still the same % of sales? Then why?
could be changed? Then why? 2. Balance sheet (B/S), as of
quarter end% of sales2022 Q3 Actual2022 FQ42023 FQ12023
FQ22023 FQ3Current assets:For the simplicity, plesase assume
that the company does not change % of sales on each assets
other than Cash.Cash and cash equivalents33%$ 27,502must
indentify if there is excess cash.Marketable
securities25%20,729- 0- 0- 0- 0Accounts receivable,
net26%21,803- 0- 0- 0- 0Inventories7%5,433- 0- 0- 0- 0Vendor
non-trade receivables25%20,439- 0- 0- 0- 0Other current
assets20%16,386- 0- 0- 0- 0 Total current assets135%112,292-
0- 0- 0- 0Non-current assets:Marketable
securities158%131,077- 0- 0- 0- 0Property, plant and
equipment, net49%40,33543,96844,62127545,929Other non-
current assets63%52,605- 0- 0- 0- 0 Total non-current
assets270%224,01743,96844,62127545,929 Total
assets405%$ 336,309Current liabilities:For the simplicity,

12. plesase assume that the company does not change % of sales on
each liability other than AFN debtAccounts payable58%$
48,343- 0- 0- 0- 0Other current liabilities59%48,811- 0- 0- 0-
0Deferred revenue9%7,728- 0- 0- 0- 0Commercial paper
(interest bearing, 2%)13.24%10,982Use any kind of short term
debt as additional financing needed (AFN), Research all the
borrowing cost of debt and determine what % can be
applicableTerm debt (interest bearing, 3%)17%14,009- 0- 0- 0-
0Research all the borrowing cost of debt and determine what %
can be applicable Total current liabilities157%129,873- 0- 0-
0- 0Non-current liabilities:Term debt (interest bearing,
3%)114%94,70094,70094,70094,70094,700Research all the
borrowing cost of debt and determine what % can be
applicableOther non-current
liabilities65%53,62953,62953,62953,62953,629 Total non-
current liabilities179%148,329148,329148,329148,329148,329
Total
liabilities335%278,202148,329148,329148,329148,329Sharehol
der's Equity:For the simplicity, plesase assume that the
company does not issue equity during the forcased
periodCommon stock and additional paid-in
capital75%62,11562,11562,11562,11562,115Retained
earnings6%5,2895,2895,2895,2895,289Accumulated other
comprehensive income/(loss)-
11.21%(9,297)(9,297)(9,297)(9,297)(9,297) Total

13. shareholders' equity70%58,10758,10758,10758,10758,107
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity405%$ 336,3093.
Statement of Cash Flows, for the quarter ended 2022 FQ42023
FQ12023 FQ22023 FQ3Analyze Operating, Investing, and
Financing activities in terms of cash. Operating:Net Income- 0-
0- 0- 0Depreciation & Amortization- 0- 0- 0- 0Change in
Marketable securities20,729- 0- 0- 0Change in Accts.
Receivable21,803- 0- 0- 0Change in Inventories5,433- 0- 0-
0Change in Vendor non-trade receivables20,439- 0- 0- 0Change
in other current assets16,386- 0- 0- 0Change in Accts.
Payable(48,343)- 0- 0- 0Change in other current
liabilities(48,811)- 0- 0- 0Change in Deferred revenue(7,728)-
0- 0- 0 Cash Flow from Operations(20,092)- 0- 0-
0Investing:Change in Marketable securities131,077- 0- 0-
0Change in Gross Fixed
Assets(3,633)(653)44,346(45,654)Change in Other non curent
assets52,605- 0- 0- 0 Cash Flow from
Investing180,049(653)44,346(45,654)Financing:Commercial
paper(10,982)- 0- 0- 0Short Term debt(14,009)- 0- 0- 0Long
Term debt- 0- 0- 0- 0Other non-current liabilities- 0- 0- 0-
0Dividend paid- 0- 0- 0- 0Stock repurchased- 0- 0- 0- 0 Cash
Flow from Financing(24,991)- 0- 0- 0Net Quarterly Cash
Flow134,966(653)44,346(45,654)Beginning Cash27,502- 0- 0-
0Ending Cash162,468(653)44,346(45,654)Part III. Compariative
Analysis with Ratios.1. Liquidity (Safety)2022 Q3 Actual2022

14. FQ42023 FQ12023 FQ22023 FQ3Analyze financial statements
with ratios in terms of Liquidity. How the ratios wiil be
changed? And Why? a. Current
ratio0.86ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERR
OR:#DIV/0! b. Quick
ratio0.82ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERR
OR:#DIV/0! c. Accounts Receivable
Turnover3.80ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
ERROR:#DIV/0! d. Days in
Receivable23.92ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV
/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!2. Productivity (Efficiency)
Analyze financial statements with ratios in terms of Efficiency.
How the ratios wiil be changed? And Why? a. Inventory
Turnover8.66ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
ERROR:#DIV/0! b. Days in
Inventory10.53ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/
0!ERROR:#DIV/0! c. Total Asset
Turnover0.25ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
ERROR:#DIV/0! d. Total Fixed Asset Turnover2.06- 0- 0- 0-
03. Profitability (Performance)Analyze financial statements
with ratios in terms of Performance. How the ratios wiil be
changed? And Why? a. Operating profit margin
(%)27.82%ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!E
RROR:#DIV/0! b. Return on Asset
(%)5.78%ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ER

15. ROR:#DIV/0! c. Return on Sales, net profit margin
(%)23.44%ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!E
RROR:#DIV/0! d. Return on Equity
(%)33.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%4. Insolvency
(Leverage)Analyze financial statements with ratios in terms of
Leverage How the ratios wiil be changed? And Why? a. Debt
Ratio0.83ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ER
ROR:#DIV/0! b. Asset to Equity (Equity Multiplier)5.79- 0- 0-
0- 0 c. Current Liabilities to Total Debt Ratio0.47- 0- 0- 0- 0
d. Interest
Coverage32.09ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/
0!ERROR:#DIV/0!5. DuPont Analysis. (ROE break-
down)Analyze financial statements with ratios in terms of
Profitability, Productivity, Leveage. How the ratios wiil be
changed? And Why? a. Return on Sales, net profit margin
(%)23.44%ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!E
RROR:#DIV/0! b. Asset
Turnover24.67%ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV
/0!ERROR:#DIV/0! c. Asset to Equity5.79- 0- 0- 0- 0 d.
Return on Equity
(%)33.46%ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!E
RROR:#DIV/0!6. Additional Ratios (At least 4 more) a. b.
c. d.
APPL Q Rev.Apple Quarterly Sales (Actual)DateQ SalesY
SalesApple Quarterly Sales

16. Dec 2014 to Jun
202212/27/1474,5993/28/1558,0106/27/1549,6059/26/1551,501
233,71512/26/1575,8723/26/1650,5576/25/1642,3589/24/1646,8
52215,63912/31/1678,3514/1/1752,8967/1/1745,4089/30/1752,5
79229,23412/30/1788,2933/31/1861,1376/30/1853,2659/29/186
2,900265,59512/29/1884,3103/30/1958,0156/29/1953,8099/28/1
964,040260,17412/28/1991,8193/28/2058,3136/27/2059,6859/26
/2064,698274,51512/26/20111,4393/27/2189,5846/26/2181,4349
/25/2183,360365,81712/25/21123,9453/26/2297,2786/25/2282,9
59*All figures in millions of dollars
Apple Quarterly Sales
Dec 2014 to Jun 2022
Q
Sales420004209142182422734236442455425464263742735428
26429174300843099431904328143372434634355443645437364
38274391844009441004419144282443734446444555446464473
77459958010496055150175872505574235846852783515289645
40852579882936113753265629008431058015538096404091819
5831359685646981114398958481434833601239459727882959
Millions of Dollars

17. Apple Yearly Sales
Y
Sales422734263743008433724373644100444642337152156392
29234265595260174274515365817
% Sales vs. TrendForecasting Variable Costs (% of Sales
Method) & Fixed Investment or Fixed Expense (Trend
Method)DateY SalesQ SalesCost of Salesnet
PPEactual12/27/1474,59944,85820,3923/28/1558,01034,35420,
1516/27/1549,60529,92421,1499/26/15233,71551,50130,95327,
01012/26/1575,87245,44922,3003/26/1650,55730,63623,2036/2
5/1642,35826,25225,4489/24/16215,63946,85229,03033,78312/
31/1678,35148,17526,5104/1/1752,89632,30527,1637/1/1745,40
827,92029,2869/30/17229,23452,57932,64841,30412/30/1788,2
9354,38133,6793/31/1861,13737,71535,0776/30/1853,26532,84
438,1179/29/18265,59562,90038,81637,37812/29/1884,31052,2
7939,5973/30/1958,01536,19438,7466/29/1953,80933,58237,63
69/28/19260,17464,04039,72636,76612/28/1991,81956,60237,0
313/28/2058,31335,94335,8896/27/2059,68537,00535,6879/26/2

18. 0274,51564,69840,00939,44012/26/20111,43967,11137,9333/27
/2189,58451,50537,8156/26/2181,43446,17938,6159/25/21365,8
1783,36048,18642,11712/25/21123,94569,70239,2453/26/2297,
27854,71939,3046/25/2282,95947,07440,335Forcast9/25/2243,9
68=TREND(F5:F35,B5:B35,B36:B39,TRUE)12/25/2244,6213/2
6/2345,2756/25/2345,929*All figures in millions of dollars
Cost of Sales
74599580104960551501758725055742358468527835152896454
08525798829361137532656290084310580155380964040918195
83135968564698111439895848143483360123945972788295944
85834354299243095345449306362625229030481753230527920
32648543813771532844388165227936194335823972656602359
43370054000967111515054617948186697025471947074
Q
Sales420004209142182422734236442455425464263742735428
26429174300843099431904328143372434634355443645437364
38274391844009441004419144282443734446444555446464473

19. 77459958010496055150175872505574235846852783515289645
40852579882936113753265629008431058015538096404091819
5831359685646981114398958481434833601239459727882959
Cost of
Sales420004209142182422734236442455425464263742735428
26429174300843099431904328143372434634355443645437364
38274391844009441004419144282443734446444555446464473
74485834354299243095345449306362625229030481753230527
92032648543813771532844388165227936194335823972656602
35943370054000967111515054617948186697025471947074
74599580104960551501758725055742358468527835152896454
08525798829361137532656290084310580155380964040918195
83135968564698111439895848143483360123945972788295902
03922015121149270102230023203254483378326510271632928
64130433679350773811737378395973874637636367663703135
889356873944037933378153861542117392453930440335

20. 74599580104960551501758725055742358468527835152896454
08525798829361137532656290084310580155380964040918195
83135968564698111439895848143483360123945972788295902
03922015121149270102230023203254483378326510271632928
64130433679350773811737378395973874637636367663703135
88935687394403793337815386154211739245393044033543967
.66951360076244621.4330785537645275.19664350670145928.
960208459641
CMAApple Quarter Sales Forecasting: Trend Method (Central
Moving Average): A wrong ST financial planning application
for a firm with SeasonalityDateQ
SalesCMA4Actual12/27/1474,59958,5883/28/1558,01057,8156/
27/1549,60555,978=AVERAGE(AVERAGE(C8:C11),AVERAG
E(C9:C12))9/26/1551,50154,49112/26/1575,87254,2203/26/165
0,55754,8226/25/1642,35855,4969/24/1646,85256,59312/31/167
8,35158,5514/1/1752,89660,8247/1/1745,40862,8369/30/1752,5

21. 7965,10912/30/1788,29365,9013/31/1861,13765,0136/30/1853,2
6564,6919/29/1862,90064,90112/29/1884,31065,9823/30/1958,0
1566,9586/29/1953,80967,7309/28/1964,04068,54712/28/1991,8
1971,0813/28/2058,31377,4436/27/2059,68584,0709/26/2064,69
889,12212/26/20111,43993,0183/27/2189,58495,5436/26/2181,4
3496,6959/25/2183,36097,82112/25/21123,94594,7863/26/2297,
27890,3486/25/2282,95991,368Forecast9/25/2290,84393,53112/
25/2292,18694,8773/26/2393,52995,8876/25/2394,87296,5629/2
5/2396,22912/25/2397,572=TREND(C6:C36,B6:B36,B37:B42,T
RUE)*All figures in millions of dollars
42000420914218242273423644245542546426374273542826429
17430084309943190432814337243463435544364543736438274
39184400944100441914428244373444644455544646447374482
94492045011451024519445285745995801049605515017587250
55742358468527835152896454085257988293611375326562900
84310580155380964040918195831359685646981114398958481
43483360123945972788295990843.422193699492186.1467588
1946593528.87132393964694871.5958890597196229.07566918
118497571.8002343012494200042091421824227342364424554
25464263742735428264291743008430994319043281433724346
34355443645437364382743918440094410044191442824437344
46444555446464473744829449204501145102451944528558587
.87557815.37555977.87554490.87554219.62554821.87555495.5
56592.62558551.2560824.12562836.37565108.62565900.87565

22. 012.7564690.56490165982.1256695867729.7568546.571081.25
77442.62584070.12589121.593017.595542.596694.87597820.92
777421242594786.49889327728390348.00115362217291368.43
455524709193530.71572581477894877.12909468522495887.24
652165058196562.297607960965
Forecast FactorsApple Quarter Sales Forecasting: CMA4,
Seasonal Index, & Irregularity DataSeasonal IndexDateFiscal
QTRSalesCMA4Raw SeasonalsSeasonal IndexIrregularSales
ReconstructionQuarterRaw FactorsNormalized Seaonal
Index12/27/14174,599=AVERAGE(AVERAGE(D5:D8),AVERA
GE(D6:D9))11.3481.3553/28/15258,010=D7/E7=VLOOKUP(C7
,$K$5:$M$8,3,FALSE)20.9251.0546/27/15349,60558,5880.8470
.95630.8160.9569/26/15451,50157,8150.8911.00040.8921.0001
2/26/15175,87255,9781.3551.355=AVERAGEIF(C7:C33,K5,F7:
F33)=L5/AVERAGE(L5:L8)3/26/16250,55754,4910.9281.054=
AVERAGEIF(C8:C34,K6,F8:F34)=L6/AVERAGE(L6:L9)6/25/1
6342,35854,2200.7810.956=AVERAGEIF(C9:C35,K7,F9:F35)=
L7/AVERAGE(L7:L10)9/24/16446,85254,8220.8551.000=AVE
RAGEIF(C10:C36,K8,F10:F36)=L8/AVERAGE(L8:L11)12/31/1
6178,35155,4961.4121.3554/1/17252,89656,5930.9351.0547/1/1

23. 7345,40858,5510.7760.9569/30/17452,57960,8240.8641.00012/
30/17188,29362,8361.4051.3553/31/18261,13765,1090.9391.05
46/30/18353,26565,9010.8080.9569/29/18462,90065,0130.9681.
00012/29/18184,31064,6911.3031.3553/30/19258,01564,9010.8
941.0546/29/19353,80965,9820.8160.9569/28/19464,04066,958
0.9561.00012/28/19191,81967,7301.3561.3553/28/20258,31368,
5470.8511.0546/27/20359,68571,0810.8400.9569/26/20464,698
77,4430.8351.00012/26/201111,43984,0701.3261.3553/27/2128
9,58489,1221.0051.0546/26/21381,43493,0180.8750.9569/25/21
483,36095,5430.8721.00012/25/211123,94596,6951.2821.3553/
26/22297,278ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A6/25/22382,959*All
figures in millions of dollars
Trend
Trend58587.87557815.37555977.87554490.87554219.62554821
.87555495.556592.62558551.2560824.12562836.37565108.6256
5900.87565012.7564690.56490165982.1256695867729.7568546
.571081.2577442.62584070.12589121.593017.595542.596694.8
75
Seasonality
0.9555710446663242511.35469545430488171.05418387548582

24. 420.9555710446663242511.35469545430488171.054183875485
82420.9555710446663242511.35469545430488171.0541838754
8582420.9555710446663242511.35469545430488171.05418387
548582420.9555710446663242511.35469545430488171.054183
87548582420.9555710446663242511.35469545430488171.0541
8387548582420.9555710446663242511.3546954543048817
Irregular
Apple Quarterly Sales
42182422734236442455425464263742735428264291743008430
99431904328143372434634355443645437364382743918440094
41004419144282443734446444555
Expo SmoothingApple Q Sales Forecasting: Exponential
Smoothing MethodDateSalesExp SmoothingSensitivity Factors
& Forecast

25. ErrorActual12/27/1474,59974,599=C5Alpha65,535.00003/28/15
58,01074,599=D5+$G$5*(C5-D5)Mean Squared Error
(MSE)20,106,628,786,425,560,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000=SUMXMY2(C5:C35,D5:D
35)/COUNT(D5:D35)6/27/1549,605(1,087,085,516)=D6+$G$5*
(C6-D6)Mean Absolute % Error
(MAPE)3069947342053028000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000.00%=AVERA
GE(ABS(C5:C35-
D5:D35)/C5:C35)9/26/1551,50171,244,313,069,219=D7+$G$5*
(C7-
D7)12/26/1575,872(4,668,924,809,303,079,900)=D8+$G$5*(C8
-
D8)3/26/1650,557305,973,318,452,873,060,000,000=D9+$G$5*
(C9-
D9)6/25/1642,358(20,051,655,451,490,585,000,000,000,000)=D
10+$G$5*(C10-
D10)9/24/1646,8521,314,065,188,357,984,000,000,000,000,000,
000=D11+$G$5*(C11-

26. D11)12/31/1678,351(86,115,948,053,852,120,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000)=D12+$G$5*(C12-
D12)4/1/1752,8965,643,522,539,761,146,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000=D13+$G$5*(C13-
D13)7/1/1745,408(369,842,606,120,707,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000)=D14+$G$5*(C14-
D14)9/30/1752,57924,237,265,349,514,413,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000=D15+$G$5*(C15-
D15)12/30/1788,293(1,588,364,947,415,077,300,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)=D16+$G$5*(C16-
D16)3/31/1861,137104,091,908,463,899,680,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000=D17+$G$5*(C17
-
D17)6/30/1853,265(6,821,559,129,273,202,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)=D18+$G
$5*(C18-
D18)9/29/1862,900447,044,055,977,790,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000=D19
+$G$5*(C19-
D19)12/29/1884,310(29,296,585,164,448,486,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000)=D20+$G$5*(C20-
D20)3/30/1958,0151,919,922,412,166,967,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000=D21+$G$5*(C21-

27. D21)6/29/1953,809(125,820,195,358,950,050,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000)=D22+$G$5*(C22-
D22)9/28/1964,0408,245,500,682,653,433,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,000=D23+$G$5*(C23-
D23)12/28/1991,819(540,360,641,737,010,100,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)=D24+$G$5*(C24-
D24)3/28/2058,31335,411,994,295,593,215,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000=D25+$G$5*(C25-
D25)6/27/2059,685(2,320,689,634,167,405,600,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)=D26+$G$5*(C2
6-
D26)9/26/2064,698152,084,074,485,526,750,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000=D27+$G$5
*(C27-
D27)12/26/20111,439(9,966,677,737,334,510,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)=D
28+$G$5*(C28-
D28)3/27/2189,584653,156,258,838,479,800,000,000,000,000,0

28. 00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
=D29+$G$5*(C29-
D29)6/26/2181,434(42,803,942,266,720,930,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000)=D30+$G$5*(C30-
D30)9/25/2183,3602,805,113,552,507,289,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000=D31+$G$5*(C31-
D31)12/25/21123,945(183,830,311,550,012,630,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000)=D32+$G$5*(C32-
D32)3/26/2297,27812,047,135,637,118,528,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000=D33+$G$5*(C33-
D33)6/25/2282,959(789,496,986,842,925,800,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)=D34+$G$5*(C34-
D34)Forecast9/22/2251,738,895,535,764,290,000,000,000,000,0
00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

29. 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000=D35+$G$5*(C35-
D35)All figures in millions of dollars
Linear Trend ExpoApple Q Sales Forecasting: Linear Trend
Exponential Smoothing MethodSensitivity Factors & Forecast
ErrorAlpha0.1692Beta0.2878Mean Squared Error
(MSE)322,786,038=SUMXMY2(C13:C42,F13:F42)/COUNT(C1
3:C42)Mean Absolute % Error
(MAPE)19.58%=AVERAGE(ABS(C13:C42-
F13:F42)/C13:C42)Sales ForecastingDateSalesLevel
(simple)Trend
(change)ForecastActual12/27/1474,59974,599=C123/28/1558,01
071,792(808)74,599=$D$5*C13+(1-
$D$5)*(D12+E12)=$D$6*(D13-D12)+(1-
$D$6)*E12=SUM(D12:E12)6/27/1549,60567,366(1,849)70,984
=$D$5*C14+(1-$D$5)*(D13+E13)=$D$6*(D14-D13)+(1-
$D$6)*E13=SUM(D13:E13)9/26/1551,50163,145(2,532)65,517
=$D$5*C15+(1-$D$5)*(D14+E14)=$D$6*(D15-D14)+(1-
$D$6)*E14=SUM(D14:E14)12/26/1575,87263,196(1,789)60,614
=$D$5*C16+(1-$D$5)*(D15+E15)=$D$6*(D16-D15)+(1-
$D$6)*E15=SUM(D15:E15)3/26/1650,55759,571(2,317)61,4076
/25/1642,35854,733(3,043)57,2549/24/1646,85250,872(3,278)5
1,69112/31/1678,35152,798(1,780)47,5944/1/1752,89651,336(1,
689)51,0187/1/1745,40848,930(1,895)49,6479/30/1752,57947,9
73(1,625)47,03412/30/1788,29353,44541846,3473/31/1861,137

30. 55,09477253,8636/30/1853,26555,42664555,8669/29/1862,9005
7,22797856,07112/29/1884,31062,6222,24958,2053/30/1958,01
563,7111,91564,8716/29/1953,80963,6271,34065,6279/28/1964,
04064,8101,29564,96712/28/1991,81970,4562,54766,1053/28/2
058,31370,5171,83273,0036/27/2059,68570,2061,21572,3499/2
6/2064,69870,28388771,42112/26/20111,43977,9852,84971,171
3/27/2189,58482,3143,27580,8336/26/2181,43484,8863,07385,5
89=$D$5*C38+(1-$D$5)*(D37+E37)=$D$6*(D38-D37)+(1-
$D$6)*E37=SUM(D37:E37)9/25/2183,36087,1802,84987,958=$
D$5*C39+(1-$D$5)*(D38+E38)=$D$6*(D39-D38)+(1-
$D$6)*E38=SUM(D38:E38)12/25/21123,94595,7684,50090,029
=$D$5*C40+(1-$D$5)*(D39+E39)=$D$6*(D40-D39)+(1-
$D$6)*E39=SUM(D39:E39)3/26/2297,27899,7624,355100,268=
$D$5*C41+(1-$D$5)*(D40+E40)=$D$6*(D41-D40)+(1-
$D$6)*E40=SUM(D40:E40)6/25/2282,959100,5373,324104,117
=$D$5*C42+(1-$D$5)*(D41+E41)=$D$6*(D42-D41)+(1-
$D$6)*E41=SUM(D41:E41)Forecast9/22/22103,861=$D$42+$E
$42*(ROW()-
ROW($F$42))12/22/22107,185=$D$42+$E$42*(ROW()-
ROW($F$42))3/23/23110,510=$D$42+$E$42*(ROW()-
ROW($F$42))6/23/23113,834=$D$42+$E$42*(ROW()-
ROW($F$42))
Sales420004209142182422734236442455425464263742735428
26429174300843099431904328143372434634355443645437364

31. 38274391844009441004419144282443734446444555446464473
74482644917450084510074599580104960551501758725055742
35846852783515289645408525798829361137532656290084310
58015538096404091819583135968564698111439895848143483
3601239459727882959Forecast420004209142182422734236442
45542546426374273542826429174300843099431904328143372
43463435544364543736438274391844009441004419144282443
7344464445554464644737448264491745008451007459970983.
95648357391565517.13983917542660613.56815402247661406.
81015057403457253.74395007229851690.56359755176547593.
53887850133551017.87393778698649646.89809511591747034.
3846415692946347.42357400713853862.93747563613655865.8
2862069086756071.07994482068958204.57285492302664871.3
6320128876865626.62786423176364966.80905788722966104.7
2814799060973003.08167806798972348.9893001348171420.94
967552594671170.78002403490280833.40097272537285588.99
515998236987958.41805793331990028.845137300654100268.3
3261053542104117.08912589778103861.12057128936107185.3
9385326623110509.6671352431113833.94041721997
HWAS ModelApple Q Sales Forecasting: Holt-Winters Additive

32. Seasonal (HWAS) ModelSensitivity Factors & Forecast
ErrorAlpha0.5995Beta0.0648Gamma1.0000Mean Squared Error
(MSE)44,486,505=SUMXMY2(C17:C43,G17:G43)/COUNT(C1
7:C43)Mean Absolute % Error
(MAPE)6.64%=AVERAGE(ABS(C17:C43-
G17:G43)/C17:C43)Sales ForecastingDate SalesLevel
(simple)Trend
(change)SeasonalForecastActual12/27/1474,59916,170=C13-
$D$163/28/1558,010(419)=C14-
$D$166/27/1549,605(8,824)=C15-$D$169/26/1551,50158,429-
0(6,928)=AVERAGE(C13:C16)=C16-
$D$1612/26/1575,87259,1924916,68074,599=$D$5*(C17-
F13)+(1-$D$5)*(D16+E16)=$D$6*(D17-D16)+(1-
$D$6)*E16=$D$7*(C17-D17)+(1-
$D$7)*F13=SUM(D16:E16)+F133/26/1650,55754,286(272)(3,7
29)58,823=$D$5*(C18-F14)+(1-
$D$5)*(D17+E17)=$D$6*(D18-D17)+(1-
$D$6)*E17=$D$7*(C18-D18)+(1-
$D$7)*F14=SUM(D17:E17)+F146/25/1642,35852,316(382)(9,9
58)45,191=$D$5*(C19-F15)+(1-
$D$5)*(D18+E18)=$D$6*(D19-D18)+(1-
$D$6)*E18=$D$7*(C19-D19)+(1-
$D$7)*F15=SUM(D18:E18)+F159/24/1646,85253,041(310)(6,1
89)45,00712/31/1678,35158,0903720,26169,4114/1/1752,89657,
227(21)(4,331)54,3987/1/1745,40856,103(93)(10,695)47,2479/3

33. 0/1752,57957,66415(5,085)49,82212/30/1788,29363,88541724,
40877,9393/31/1861,13765,001462(3,864)59,9716/30/1853,265
64,562404(11,297)54,7689/29/1862,90066,775521(3,875)59,881
12/29/1884,31062,86423421,44691,7043/30/1958,01562,367186
(4,352)59,2336/29/1953,80964,084285(10,275)51,2569/28/1964
,04066,495423(2,455)60,49412/28/1991,81968,98955722,83088
,3653/28/2058,31365,421290(7,108)65,1956/27/2059,68568,258
455(8,573)55,4379/26/2064,69867,778395(3,080)66,25812/26/2
0111,43980,4241,18831,01591,0023/27/2189,58490,6521,774(1,
068)74,5046/26/2181,43490,9761,680(9,542)83,8539/25/2183,3
6088,9291,438(5,569)89,576=$D$5*(C40-F36)+(1-
$D$5)*(D39+E39)=$D$6*(D40-D39)+(1-
$D$6)*E39=$D$7*(C40-D40)+(1-
$D$7)*F36=SUM(D39:E39)+F3612/25/21123,94591,9041,5383
2,041121,383=$D$5*(C41-F37)+(1-
$D$5)*(D40+E40)=$D$6*(D41-D40)+(1-
$D$6)*E40=$D$7*(C41-D41)+(1-
$D$7)*F37=SUM(D40:E40)+F373/26/2297,27896,3821,728896
92,373=$D$5*(C42-F38)+(1-$D$5)*(D41+E41)=$D$6*(D42-
D41)+(1-$D$6)*E41=$D$7*(C42-D42)+(1-
$D$7)*F38=SUM(D41:E41)+F386/25/2282,95994,7481,511(11,
789)88,568=$D$5*(C43-F39)+(1-
$D$5)*(D42+E42)=$D$6*(D43-D42)+(1-
$D$6)*E42=$D$7*(C43-D43)+(1-
$D$7)*F39=SUM(D42:E42)+F39Forecast9/22/2290,689=$D$43

34. +$E$43*(ROW()-
ROW($G$43))+F4012/22/22129,810=$D$43+$E$43*(ROW()-
ROW($G$43))+F413/23/23100,175=$D$43+$E$43*(ROW()-
ROW($G$43))+F426/23/2389,001=$D$43+$E$43*(ROW()-
ROW($G$43))+F43
42000420914218242273423644245542546426374273542826429
17430084309943190432814337243463435544364543736438274
39184400944100441914428244373444644455544646447374482
64491745008451007459958010496055150175872505574235846
85278351528964540852579882936113753265629008431058015
53809640409181958313596856469811143989584814348336012
3945972788295907459958822.57829239804445190.949600872
36545007.08020751834669411.02019371751554398.295390970
77947247.46521022858449821.78061031796877938.788236664
2359970.96568297714154767.7279955575559881.04883620205
591703.93302889927959233.39878812033651256.28126196314
460493.70222827750788364.59274084790465194.54462306543
455436.6149226905466258.1129780985591002.2960940079947
4503.93831174608283852.99747722310789575.8345580801981
21382.9931537396592373.4056993630888568.41408729620290
688.690879234273129809.93058376887100175.3346381268189
001.253483702705

35. HWMS ModelApple Q Sales Forecasting: Holt-Winters
Multiplicative Seasonal (HWMS) ModelSensitivity Factors &
Forecast ErrorAlpha0.9364Beta0.0339Gamma0.9853Mean
Squared Error
(MSE)47,341,137=SUMXMY2(C17:C43,G17:G43)/COUNT(C1
7:C43)Mean Absolute % Error
(MAPE)7.78%=AVERAGE(ABS(C17:C43-
G17:G43)/C17:C43)Sales ForecastingDate SalesLevel
(simple)Trend
(change)SeasonalForecastActual12/27/1474,5991.28=C13/$D$1
63/28/1558,0100.99=C14/$D$166/27/1549,6050.85=C15/$D$16
9/26/1551,50158,429-
00.88=AVERAGE(C13:C16)=C16/$D$1612/26/1575,87259,362
321.2874,599=$E$5*(C17/F13)+(1-
$E$5)*(D16+E16)=$E$6*(D17-D16)+(1-
$E$6)*E16=$E$7*(C17/D17)+(1-
$E$7)*F13=SUM(D16:E16)*F133/26/1650,55751,461(238)0.98
58,968=$E$5*(C18/F14)+(1-$E$5)*(D17+E17)=$E$6*(D18-
D17)+(1-$E$6)*E17=$E$7*(C18/D18)+(1-
$E$7)*F14=SUM(D17:E17)*F146/25/1642,35849,977(280)0.85
43,4889/24/1646,85252,935(170)0.8943,80512/31/1678,35160,7
601011.2967,4384/1/1752,89654,280(122)0.9759,8027/1/1745,4

36. 0853,612(141)0.8545,9039/30/1752,57959,031480.8947,32412/
30/1788,29367,8813471.3076,1743/31/1861,13763,0791720.976
6,4966/30/1853,26562,9111610.8553,5739/29/1862,90070,1454
010.9056,17212/29/1884,31065,1912191.2991,7473/30/1958,01
560,206420.9663,4016/29/1953,80963,3431470.8551,0119/28/1
964,04070,9194000.9056,92712/28/1991,81971,0123891.2992,2
423/28/2058,31361,203430.9568,8086/27/2059,68569,6903300.
8652,0259/26/2064,69871,5513820.9063,22112/26/20111,43985
,2798351.3193,0103/27/2189,58493,5061,0860.9682,0616/26/21
81,43495,0641,1020.8681,0029/25/2183,36092,4449750.9086,9
5312/25/21123,94594,7721,0211.31122,058=$E$5*(C41/F37)+(
1-$E$5)*(D40+E40)=$E$6*(D41-D40)+(1-
$E$6)*E40=$E$7*(C41/D41)+(1-
$E$7)*F37=SUM(D40:E40)*F373/26/2297,278101,1791,2040.9
691,768=$E$5*(C42/F38)+(1-$E$5)*(D41+E41)=$E$6*(D42-
D41)+(1-$E$6)*E41=$E$7*(C42/D42)+(1-
$E$7)*F38=SUM(D41:E41)*F386/25/2282,95997,1971,0280.85
87,703=$E$5*(C43/F39)+(1-$E$5)*(D42+E42)=$E$6*(D43-
D42)+(1-$E$6)*E42=$E$7*(C43/D43)+(1-
$E$7)*F39=SUM(D42:E42)*F39Forecast9/22/2288,576=($D$43
+$E$43*(ROW()-
ROW($G$43)))*F4012/22/22129,803=($D$43+$E$43*(ROW()-
ROW($G$43)))*F413/23/2396,409=($D$43+$E$43*(ROW()-
ROW($G$43)))*F426/23/2386,473=($D$43+$E$43*(ROW()-
ROW($G$43)))*F43

37. Sales420004209142182422734236442455425464263742735428
26429174300843099431904328143372434634355443645437364
38274391844009441004419144282443734446444555446464473
74482644917450084510074599580104960551501758725055742
35846852783515289645408525798829361137532656290084310
58015538096404091819583135968564698111439895848143483
3601239459727882959Forecast420004209142182422734236442
45542546426374273542826429174300843099431904328143372
43463435544364543736438274391844009441004419144282443
7344464445554464644737448264491745008451007459958968.
41902104385443487.61666965133943804.89711298292267438.
06861210739659801.67695707470645902.68763683206647324.
08601058343676173.7569800071866495.98762677662353572.9
2284530671956172.42709295232691746.9785694492663401.15
671860263751011.36658415189656926.9667743469492242.047
65837818668808.15223879243452025.26301911690863221.323
56940201993009.53824588141382060.99164648084881001.960
36160837786953.267495525899122057.7802487217391768.067
47711969487703.21973347975388576.09240498404129803.096
8337090596409.1981405734486473.03059496879

38. ETSError Trend Seasonal (ETS) for Scenario
AnalysisDateSalesForecastLower Confidence BoundUpper
Confidence
Bound12/27/1474,5993/28/1558,0106/27/1549,6059/26/1551,50
112/26/1575,8723/26/1650,5576/25/1642,3589/24/1646,85212/3
1/1678,3514/1/1752,8967/1/1745,4089/30/1752,57912/30/1788,
2933/31/1861,1376/30/1853,2659/29/1862,90012/29/1884,3103/
30/1958,0156/29/1953,8099/28/1964,04012/28/1991,8193/28/20
58,3136/27/2059,6859/26/2064,69812/26/20111,4393/27/2189,5
846/26/2181,4349/25/2183,36012/25/21123,9453/26/2297,2786/
25/2282,95982,95982,95982,959=[@Sales]=[@Forecast]=[@[Lo
wer Confidence
Bound]]9/22/2288,32175,305101,338=FORECAST.ETS(B36,$C
$5:$C$35,$B$5:$B$35,1,1)=D36-
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(B36,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:$B$35,0.95
,1,1)=D36+FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(B36,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:
$B$35,0.95,1,1)12/22/22118,828104,069133,587=FORECAST.E
TS(B37,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:$B$35,1,1)=D37-
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(B37,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:$B$35,0.95
,1,1)=D37+FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(B37,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:
$B$35,0.95,1,1)3/23/2396,79480,588112,999=FORECAST.ETS(
B38,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:$B$35,1,1)=D38-
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(B38,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:$B$35,0.95

39. ,1,1)=D38+FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(B38,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:
$B$35,0.95,1,1)6/23/2388,94971,424106,473=FORECAST.ETS(
B39,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:$B$35,1,1)=D39-
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(B39,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:$B$35,0.95
,1,1)=D39+FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(B39,$C$5:$C$35,$B$5:
$B$35,0.95,1,1)
Sales745995801049605515017587250557423584685278351528
96454085257988293611375326562900843105801553809640409
18195831359685646981114398958481434833601239459727882
959Forecast4200042091421824227342364424554254642637427
35428264291743008430994319043281433724346343554436454
37364382743918440094410044191442824437344464445554464
644737448264491745008451008295988321.1229377704151188
28.2893329036596793.6479141406688948.679194156328Lower
Confidence
Bound42000420914218242273423644245542546426374273542
82642917430084309943190432814337243463435544364543736
43827439184400944100441914428244373444644455544646447
37448264491745008451008295975304.535237100557104069.4
158915882680588.48326774488771424.011144039454Upper
Confidence
Bound42000420914218242273423644245542546426374273542
82642917430084309943190432814337243463435544364543736
43827439184400944100441914428244373444644455544646447
374482644917450084510082959101337.71063844027133587.1

40. 6277421903112998.81256053643106473.3472442732
RegressionRegression Forecasting
ModelDatePeriodQ1Q2Q3SalesFitActual12/27/14100074,599ER
ROR:#N/A3/28/15210058,0106/27/15301049,6059/26/15400151
,50112/26/15500075,8723/26/16610050,5576/25/16701042,3589
/24/16800146,85212/31/16900078,3514/1/171010052,8967/1/17
1101045,4089/30/171200152,57912/30/171300088,2933/31/181
410061,1376/30/181501053,2659/29/181600162,90012/29/1817
00084,3103/30/191810058,0156/29/191901053,8099/28/192000
164,04012/28/192100091,8193/28/202210058,3136/27/2023010
59,6859/26/202400164,69812/26/2025000111,4393/27/2126100
89,5846/26/212701081,4349/25/212800183,36012/25/21290001
23,9453/26/223010097,2786/25/223101082,959Forecast9/22/22
3200112/22/22330003/23/23341006/23/2335010*Q1,2,3,4 is not
fiscal quarter of Apple, but the general quarters in annual.*All
figures in millions of dollars
image1.wmf
image2.wmf
image3.wmf
image4.wmf

41. image5.wmf
2022F MFIN1756 FP&A with Excel.
Final Project Assignment (50%).
Forecasted Financial Statements and Analysis Report.
Company Name:
Student Name:
1. Company Analysis
1) Intro: Business Description & Industry Market Analysis
[Instruction. Research on any open resources and summarize
with students’ own words. 2page long but not limited, including
some figures, if any.]
…
2) Summarize Item 2 (Part I) on 10Q: Management’s Discussion
and Analysis
[Instruction. Must include all the topics indicated on Item 2.
Summarize each topic within a few sentences by students’ own
words. Do not have to paraphrase all the contents. 5page long
but not limited, including some figures, if any.]

42. …
2. List of explanations of all the input variables with
assumptions, interpretations, and calculations on the forecasted
financial statements.
[Instruction. All input variables, hard number inputs, and
calculations on Excel part must be described in Word part. Hard
input numbers on each cell on Excel should be explained by
Where and Why this number can be applied.
(Justified explanation by students’ own words with research
citation) The input hard numbers should be explained by
How this number is calculated with the clear
process.]
1) Forecasted Income Statement
[Each quarter of
all the income statemen items must be developed
with research support, rather than just using the same % of sales
throughout the forecasted quarters. Forecasted financial
statements must be reasonable and realistic along with
contemporary events and issues of the firm.]

43. a. Sales
b. Cost of Goods Sold
c. …
d. …
e. …
f. …
…
…
…
2) Forecasted Balance Sheet
[Tips! To get a higher grade, use as
many independent assumptions on B/S accounts in
each quarter as possible with research support, rather than just
using the same % of sales throughout the forecasted quarters.
There are many B/S accounts that are not moving along with %
of Sales. Forecasted financial statements must be reasonable
and realistic along with contemporary events and issues of the
firm.]
(1) Assets
a. Cash
b. Marketable Securities

44. c. Accounts Receivable
d. …
e. …
…
…
(2) Liabilities
a.
b.
c.
…
…
(3) Equities
a.
b.
c.
…
…
3) Forecasted Statement of Cash Flows
[Instruction. Only interpretation is required of Cash Flows in
Operating, Investing, and Financing. Interpret the main changes
in the components of the activities.]

45. (1) Cash Flows in Operating
…
(2) Cash Flows in Investing
…
(3) Cash Flows in Financing
…
3. Comparative Analysis with financial ratios
[Instruction. All the ratio sections on Excel part must be
described in Word part. What changes will incur in the company
for the forecasted period? Interpret and analyze the ratios
throughout the quarters.]
1) Liquidity (Safety)
a.
b.
c.
d. …
2) Productivity (Efficiency)
a.

46. b.
c.
d. …
3) Profitability (Performance)
a.
b.
c.
d. …
4) Insolvency (Leverage)
a.
b.
c.
d. …
5) Dupont ratio analysis (overall interpretation)
6) Additional ratio analysis (at least 4 more)
a.
b.
c.
d. …

47. 4. Research policies regarding Ethics Sustainability &
Responsibility (ESR) and Diversity, Equity, Inclusion &
Belonging (DEIB) for the company you've chosen for the Final
Project.
This is based on the Hult Academic Policy that mandatorily
include ESR and DEIB in the course learnings.
a. Summarize the policies and evaluate them by your own
words in a Word file
b. Turnitin % will be checked (significant Turnitin similarity
may result in Honor Code Violation under AIC investigation)
c. Two pages of summary and evaluation each for ESR and
DEIB.