California 2021 redistricting preview the cook political report

3/29/2021 California: 2021 Redistricting Preview | The Cook Political Report
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/california-2021-redistricting-preview 1/14
David Wasserman (/about/sta /david-wasserman/analysis)
February 12, 2021
REDISTRICTING (/ANALYSIS/HOUSE/REDISTRICTING)
California: 2021 Redistricting Preview
California is next in our redistricting series. Throughout 2021, we'll delve into the states in
detail, spotlighting a di erent state's redistricting outlook each week. Make sure to read
our full redistricting outlook (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/cook-political-reports-
2021-redistricting-overview) .
Current Delegation: 42D, 11R
Projected 2022 Seats: 52 (-1)
Redistricting Control: Bipartisan/independent commission
Current Congressional Map


Map credit: Dave's Redistricting App
Bay Area Inset

Los Angeles Inset
District-Level Population Analysis
This chart provides an estimate of how many residents each current district would need
to add or shed to meet the required district target population in 2022, based on 2019
Census estimates and reapportionment projections.
District
2021
Incumbent
2019
Population
Estimate
White,
Non-
Hispanic Black Hispanic
CA-01
Doug
LaMalfa
(R)
711,905 81.9% 1.6% 9.8%
CA 02
Jared
H ff 708 434 79 9% 1 6% 10 2%

CA-02 Huffman
(D)
708,434 79.9% 1.6% 10.2%
CA-03
John
Garamendi
(D)
755,811 57.0% 6.9% 20.9%
CA-04
Tom
McClintock
(R)
757,806 80.8% 1.3% 10.2%
CA-05
Mike
Thompson
(D)
726,072 60.5% 6.8% 17.7%
CA-06
Doris
Matsui (D)
781,943 44.5% 14.0% 21.1%
CA-07
Ami Bera
(D)
756,668 59.9% 7.5% 13.9%
CA-08
Jay
Obernolte
(R)
723,311 54.0% 8.0% 31.8%
CA-09
Jerry
McNerney
(D)
784,956 43.8% 10.0% 28.7%
CA-10
Josh
Harder (D)
764,859 53.2% 3.6% 32.6%
CA-11
Mark
DeSaulnier
(D)
765,504 55.8% 9.0% 17.3%
CA-12
Nancy
Pelosi (D)
779,824 48.5% 5.6% 11.2%
CA-13
Barbara
Lee (D)
768,889 42.0% 18.7% 14.1%
CA-14
Jackie
Speier (D)
742,980 41.2% 3.4% 17.8%
CA-15
Eric
Swalwell
(D)
782,312 41.7% 6.9% 18.0%
CA-16
Jim Costa
(D)
753,152 33.0% 7.4% 47.9%
CA-17
Ro Khanna
(D)
790,519 32.5% 3.0% 15.1%
CA-18
Anna
Eshoo (D)
753,806 63.7% 2.1% 11.7%
CA-19
Zoe
Lofgren (D)
737,535 33.3% 3.3% 31.0%
CA-20
Jimmy
Panetta
(D)
741,838 53.3% 2.6% 34.9%
CA-21
David
Valadao
(R)
729,460 27.5% 5.7% 60.7%
CA-22
Devin
Nunes (R)
768,917 49.3% 3.1% 37.6%

Redistricting Outlook
Ten years ago, California experienced a political earthquake when a 2008 ballot
proposition took e ect, creating a 14-member citizen-led commission to take over
redistricting from the legislature. The result, after dozens of public hearings: an
uncompetitive, incumbent-friendly gerrymander was replaced by one that paid zero
regard to election data or where incumbents lived.
The irony: the 2011 map wasn't just more competitive than the "safe" map Democrats had
drawn in 2001; it also turned out better for Democrats. Between 2002 and 2010, a seat
changed parties only once in 265 elections, and Democrats topped out at 34 of 53 seats.
Between 2012 and 2020, there were 18 seat changes and Democrats now hold 42 of 53
seats (they won 46 of 53 in 2018).
Today, the nation's most populous state is in redistricting limbo. Recent estimates show
California poised to decline from 53 to 52 seats, which would be its rst ever decline
since statehood. But there's also a chance it could end up with 51 or 53 seats when nal
counts arrive in April, and even that small distinction could produce huge aftershocks up
and down the congressional map.
( )
CA-23
Kevin
McCarthy
(R)
741,557 55.1% 6.8% 30.5%
CA-24
Salud
Carbajal
(D)
737,443 66.9% 2.1% 23.6%
CA-25
Mike
Garcia (R)
718,949 49.5% 8.2% 31.3%
CA-26
Julia
Brownley
(D)
725,535 55.3% 2.1% 33.4%
CA-27
Judy Chu
(D)
712,783 32.2% 5.3% 24.9%
CA-28
Adam
Schiff (D)
693,299 61.6% 3.3% 20.3%
CA-29
Tony
Cardenas
(D)
717,659 27.9% 5.1% 56.4%
CA-30
Brad
Sherman 764,062 58.1% 5.5% 21.9%

One neutral California source likens the process to "shaking an ant farm:" there's no
guarantee where any of the 53 incumbents will end up, and no ways for them to
in uence the commission directly (although a few tried indirectly last time). The
commissioners aren't prohibited from taking the current map into account when drawing
new lines, but aren't required to use it as a baseline either.
The 14 members of the 2020 commission — ve Democrats, ve Republicans and four
No Party Preference voters — were nalized last August via an application and lottery
process handled by the state auditor's o ce. Its members range from an earthquake
engineer from Berkeley to a political science professor from Claremont; a majority are
women and a majority are non-white.
The new commission will soon hire a mapping consultant, and it's possible it could retain
the same rm, Q2, the last one did. But Census delays mean the commission won't be
able to start its mapping work in earnest until August at the earliest. It's also likely the
pandemic will force the commission to scale back the kind of lengthy public hearings
that were held ten years ago.
It's still too early to say which party will gain or lose seats thanks to redistricting alone.
There's potential upside and downside for members of both parties. Still, it's possible to
venture a few guesses about the next map thanks to recent population estimates. And
for purposes of the analysis below, let's assume California loses one seat — though we
won't know for sure until April.
One solid bet: if California does lose a seat, Los Angeles County will be the reason and
would likely bear the brunt. The county — America's most populous — has grown by just
2.2 percent since 2010, compared to 6.1 percent statewide. At the 2010 Census, it had
enough people for about 14 of 53 districts; recent estimates suggest it would have
enough people for just 13.2 of 52 seats.
Potential 2022 Commission Map

The Bay Area and Northern California
In the past decade, California's population has skewed north and inland. In 2010, the 48
northern counties touching or above the 36th parallel had enough people for 20.7 of 53
districts; today estimates suggest they would account for 20.6 of 52 districts. And the
nine southern counties outside of LA would have enough people for 18.2 districts,
roughly unchanged from 18.3.
That means that if the commission wanted to keep the current congressional map intact

in the north, it probably could. And that's good news for the northern delegation. The
only real party change in the past decade came when Democrat Ami Bera picked up the
suburban Sacramento 7th CD in 2012, and Sacramento County has enough people for
almost exactly two districts, shielding him.
GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa's rural northern 1st CD needs to pick up about 48,000 people,
and that could push the 3rd CD even further south, making it safer for Democratic Rep.
John Garamendi. The Bay Area lends itself to neatly organized districts, and its
delegation is fairly well settled. One possibility is that Rep. Ro Khanna's South Bay 17th
CD is recon gured to be a true Asian majority seat.
One district to watch is GOP Rep. Tom McClintock's 4th CD in the Sacramento exurbs,
which has gradually been getting more competitive. It voted for Donald Trump by 10
points in 2020 after voting for him by 15 points in 2016. It could become even purpler if it
sheds its red southern end in the Sierra Nevada range and becomes more tightly
arranged around Placer and El Dorado counties.
Bay Area Inset

The Central Valley
A giant question is how the commission approaches the more competitive Central Valley.
On the whole, the Bay Area's districts will need to expand outward ever so slightly, and
that could produce a domino e ect, pushing the "chain" Central Valley districts south.
For starters, Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney's 9th CD could lose its Contra Costa
County (East Bay) precincts and become purely San Joaquin County, which has enough
people for almost exactly one seat. In turn, that could push Democratic Rep. Josh
Harder's 10th CD south, giving him most of Stanislaus (Modesto) and Merced counties,
perhaps making the seat he ipped in 2018 a few points bluer.
In the past, the heart of the Central Valley has been the "linchpin" of the congressional
map because rural Kings County (pop. 152,000) was covered by Section 5 of the Voting
Rights Act. That prompted map-drawers, including the 2010 commission, to draw an

awkwardly shaped, overwhelmingly Latino district stretching from Fresno County with a
southern "hook" into Kern County (Bakers eld).
But in 2013, the Supreme Court threw out Section 5 of the VRA, leaving the district's
future in doubt. The 21st CD has been highly competitive: it has a 61 percent Latino
citizen voting-age population and voted for Biden by ten points in 2020. But GOP
rancher and Rep. David Valadao, who hails from Kings County, was able to win it back by
less than a point in 2020 after losing it by a similar margin in 2018.
Free from Section 5, the commission could adopt a new approach: rather than pack
Latino voters in the 21st CD, it could create two Latino majority seats by shifting western
Fresno County to the 16th CD, boosting its current 48 percent Latino share above 50
percent. That could make it more likely Fresno Democratic Rep. Jim Costa (CA-16) is
replaced by a Latino Democrat when he retires.
The upshot is that the 21st CD would need to push further south into more of Kern or
Tulare counties to retain its own Latino majority, which could make Valadao's seat a few
points redder. And, drawing a second Latino majority seat in the heart of the Central
Valley would virtually assure GOP Reps. Devin Nunes (CA-22) and Kevin McCarthy (CA-
23) retain whiter, safely Republican seats.
Central Valley Inset

The Los Angeles Area
At rst glance, Los Angeles County's projected seat loss would seem like bad news for
Democrats. After all, they currently control 13 of the 14 seats entirely or mostly within the
county. But it's not that simple a calculation.
For example, if the commission axes a seat in central LA, that could pull surrounding
districts inwards, endangering northern LA County GOP Rep. Mike Garcia (CA-25) — who
won by just a tenth of a point in 2020 and sits in a district Biden carried by ten points. If

McCarthy's 23rd CD takes on more of the Antelope Valley, it could push Garcia south into
the bluer San Fernando Valley.
Garcia also faces pressure from his west: the Santa Barbara-based 24th CD and Ventura-
based 26th CDs may need to pick up a combined 56,000 people. That could cost Garcia
GOP-friendly precincts in Ventura County that put him over the top narrowly last year. If
his district were pushed south into, say, Northridge, it could expand Biden's margin from
10 points to 20 points, putting Garcia out of a job.
Elsewhere in LA County, it's hazardous to guess which seat could be on the chopping
block. Although the commission won't consider incumbents, a well-timed retirement or
two could avert a nasty game of musical chairs. Notably, there are four Democratic LA
incumbents age 79 or older: Reps. Grace Napolitano (CA-32), Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA-
40), Maxine Waters (CA-44) and Alan Lowenthal (CA-47).
One district at risk of elimination might be Rep. Nanette Barragan's 44th CD, which takes
in Carson, Compton and the port of LA. Originally, it was drawn as a Black opportunity
district, but as the Latino population has boomed, its Black citizen voting-age population
has fallen to just 22 percent and it hasn't elected a Black candidate this decade.
Barragan didn't even live near the seat when she ran for it in 2016.
The 44th CD could easily be spared for parts: Carson, Compton and Watts could be
given to Waters's adjacent 43rd CD to bolster the fading Black population there, which
could in turn boost the Black share in Rep. Karen Bass's 37th CD. Heavily Latino South
Gate and Lynwood could go to Roybal Allard's 40th CD, and northern Long Beach could
be reunited with the rest of Long Beach in Lowenthal's 47th CD.
The commission could justify eliminating the Latino-majority 44th CD by pointing to the
creation of new Latino majority districts elsewhere. However, don't count Barragan out in
such a scenario. If any of Waters, Roybal-Allard, Lowenthal or Napolitano retire, she could
run for any of their seats (although Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia is rumored to be
interested in running for Lowenthal's seat).
Further east in the San Gabriel Valley, the commission is likely to protect Napolitano's
Latino majority 32nd CD, but could come under pressure to convert Democratic Rep.
Judy Chu's 27th CD into an Asian majority district by linking it with Rowland Heights,

Diamond Bar and Walnut to the southeast, as shown below. That could, in turn, free new
GOP Rep. Young Kim (CA-39) of her most Democratic precincts.
A huge question mark is Orange County. The giant suburban county has enough people
for just over four districts, and Democratic Rep. Lou Correa's Latino majority 46th CD in
the center of the county must be preserved. Apart from Correa's district, the county
voted for Biden by just three points, meaning that the surrounding districts — including
two just won by the GOP in 2020 — are likely to remain in play.
Democratic Rep. Katie Porter (CA-45) just won reelection by seven points, but her seat
could get a few points redder if all of the South County is added from the 49th CD or if
parts of Irvine are removed. Kim could get a bit safer if the 39th CD loses its LA County
sections and becomes an entirely OC seat. And GOP Rep. Michelle Steel's coastal,
marginal 48th CD may not need to change very much.
Los Angeles Inset
The rest of Southern California

The Inland Empire, and particularly Riverside County, is the fastest-growing part of the
state and could experience a shakeup. The region's Democrats look safe: the
commission is likely to protect the Rep. Norma Torres's Latino majority 35th CD and could
easily convert San Bernardino Rep. Pete Aguilar's 31st CD and Riverside Rep. Mark
Takano's 41st CD into Latino majority districts.
But GOP Rep. Ken Calvert's 42nd CD will need to shed about 80,000 people, the most in
the state. Calvert's Riverside County district voted for Trump by seven points in 2020
(down from 12 points in 2016) and could lose some of its reddest precincts to GOP Rep.
Darrell Issa's 50th CD. Or it could even get pushed north into Chino in San Bernardino
County, making it even more competitive.
Another big change from 2011: for the rst time, it's possible to draw a Latino majority
seat entirely within San Diego County, which means Democratic Rep. Juan Vargas's 51st
CD could lose its awkward appendage along the Mexico border to rural, heavily Latino
Imperial County. Instead, Imperial could go to Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz's Palm Springs
36th CD, uniting the Salton Sea making Ruiz even safer.
The bottom line:
The only certainty in California redistricting is tumult — and just because the state could
lose a seat doesn't mean Democrats will. GOP Rep. Mike Garcia (CA-25) could be at the
greatest risk, while the outlook for several Orange County Republicans could improve.
Until we see a draft map from the commission, we're counting California as a loss of half
a seat for each party on our scorecard.
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