This document analyzes voter registration and primary election results in New York, with an emphasis on New York City, to understand voting patterns and predict how the 2016 presidential primary may unfold. It finds that most registered voters in New York are Democrats, concentrated in New York City and surrounding counties. Past primaries show Hillary Clinton receiving more support in major cities and upstate rural areas, while Barack Obama and insurgent candidates did better in liberal neighborhoods. The primary results will impact delegate counts and momentum heading into the conventions.

1. Mapping New York’s Presidential Primary
(with an emphasis on NYC)
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City Limits/Gotham Gazette discussion
“Our Turn: The 2016 Campaign Comes to NYC”
Steven Romalewski
CUNY Mapping Service
The Graduate Center / City University of New York
www.electionatlas.nyc
April 2016

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Who Can Vote in New York State?
5.3 million registered Democrats.
2.6 million registered Republicans.
It’s a closed primary, so the other 2.9 million
registered voters in NYS – 27% – are shut out.
Data source: NYS Board of Elections, as analyzed by Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center

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Democratic enrollment
It’s a Democratic state – no county below 20%
Democrats.
Downstate is largest concentration:
•2.7 million Dems in NYC;
•Almost 1 million on LI & Westchester combined.
Some concentrations in upstate counties
(Tompkins, Albany) & cities (Buffalo,
Rochester, Syracuse).
Data source: NYS Board of Elections, as analyzed by Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center

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GOP enrollment
Outside cities, GOP enrollment is substantial
(generally 30% or more per county).
But density is key:
•Hamilton Co. has largest % GOP (59%), but only
2,500 Republicans in county covering 1,700 sq mi.
•Brooklyn's voter pop. is only 8% GOP, but Brooklyn is
home to 100,000 Republicans in a county covering
only 70 sq mi.
Data source: NYS Board of Elections, as analyzed by Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center

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Who will likely vote?
Past elections can guide us – though “past
performance is no guarantee of future results”
especially in this particularly unpredictable
season.
In most recent presidential primaries:
•Dem turnout in 2008 was 37%
•GOP turnout in 2012 was 7%

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How the vote results will matter
Popular vote
•who wins the state; bragging rights; momentum toward
conventions.
Delegate count
•allocated mainly by Congressional district; direct impact on
who gets nominated for general election.
Tea leaves
•what will local results mean for 2017 (and beyond).

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2008 Democratic primary / NYS
Hillary Clinton vs Barack Obama
•Not surprisingly, Clinton did well statewide (she won
popular vote ~58%-40%) especially in major cities, and also
strong vote share in upstate rural counties.
•She received 139 of 232 delegates (though eventually lost
the nomination).
•Clinton likely hoped the 2008 map in New York would be
how 2016 would look, but for the strong candidacy of Bernie
Sanders.

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2008 Democratic primary / NYC
•In NYC, the vote pattern within the city was interesting.
Obama did well in the city's predominantly African American
& Afro-Caribbean neighborhoods (the orange and red on the
following map).
•Those are battleground communities this time around, so
we'll see if Sanders is able to come close to Obama's support
or if the conventional wisdom holds and Clinton does well
there.

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2014 Democratic primary / NYS
Gov. Andrew Cuomo vs. Zephyr Teachout
•There was no Democratic presidential primary in NY in 2012.
In 2014, the primary between Gov. Cuomo and Zephyr
Teachout is interesting and perhaps instructive in 2016 for
several reasons.
•Teachout was a liberal, progressive, insurgent candidate, and
did surprisingly well – the orange/red counties in the following
map.

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2014 Democratic primary / NYC
•In NYC, Teachout won traditionally liberal (and largely white)
neighborhoods of Park Slope, Chelsea, Upper West Side (the
green shaded election districts on the next map).
•Ultimately, though, she lost big in the city and lost statewide.
•If Bernie Sanders is studying her campaign this year, he will
need a strategy to expand the support she received
substantially beyond a small, concentrated area in NYC and
several less-populated counties upstate.

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Primary voters in NYC
•Relatively few Democrats have voted in all recent Democratic primary
elections (less than 170,000 Democrats voted in the 2008 presidential, 2013
mayoral, and 2014 gubernatorial primaries). But more than a million
Democrats voted in at least one of these primaries. The next map shows
where these Democratic primary voters are located.
•It’s a mixed picture. Several areas on the map with substantial
concentrations of Democratic primary voters (shown with dark blue hues)
align with the neighborhoods that Clinton won in 2008 (such as Upper
East/West sides, upper Manhattan, Riverdale, Hasidic Williamsburg, and
central/northeast Queens).
•But others do not, such as parts of southeast Queens, Park Slope, Brooklyn
Heights, and lower Manhattan. These neighborhoods supported Obama in
2008, and several of them supported Zephyr Teachout in the 2014
gubernatorial primary.

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“de Blasio effect”?
•The following map shows Democrats who voted in the 2013
general election (presumably for de Blasio).
•But these areas are not necessarily Clinton supporters:
• Park Slope/downtown Brooklyn supported Teachout in
‘14 (perhaps leaning toward Sanders this time around);
• Central Brooklyn/southeast Queens supported Obama
in ‘08 (perhaps supporting Clinton this year if polls are
right about her African American support, but perhaps
not).

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23. For more info, contact:
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Steven Romalewski
sromalewski@gc.cuny.edu
@sr_spatial
CUNY Mapping Service at the Center for Urban Research
The Graduate Center / CUNY
365 Fifth Ave., Room 6202
New York, NY 10016
www.urbanresearch.org
www.electionatlas.nyc