Europe 2030 scenario Ries Kamphof (English version): How does the EU look like in 2030? A winning scenario in a contest of the WBS-Europafonds for young Dutch people (< 30 years old)

1. PRÄSENTATION EINES SZENARIOS ÜBER
DIE EU IN 2030
Ries Kamphof (PvdA WG Europe, Niederlande)
9 December 2012
Grefrath, Deutschland

2. SCENARIO EUROPE2030: WHY?
 Young people: <30 years old
 Scientific foundation PvdA (WBS)/Rabobank
 Need for ideas and vision EU social democrats
 Debate on European cooperation
 Scenarios on basis current trends

3. THE YOUNGER GENERATION

4. WHAT DOES EUROPE MEAN?

5. FOCUS IN SCENARIO: CONCERTED ACTION
 Sustainability
 Solidarity
 Democracy
 But especially: GEMEINSCHÄFTLICHKEIT
 Title: Europe as a ‘notwendigen Gemeinschäft’

6. ASSUMPTIONS BEFOREHAND
 Less economic prosperity
 More scarcity of resources
 Ageing population
 Environmental decline
 EU demographically small as compared to
other continents

7. SUSTAINABILITY IN EUROPE 2030
 Scarcity of resources, food and water
 Europe as global ‘knowledge engine’
 EU forerunner in ‘Global Sustainability
Organization’
 Punishing ‘unsustainable’ companies/banks

8. SUSTAINABILITY IN EUROPE 2030

9. SOLIDARITY
 From economic to more social project in
2030
 Tipping point: EU-wide referendum
immigration
 Less agricultural subsidies, more ‘urban’
solidarity projects

10. EU DEMOCRACY IN 2012

11. EU DEMOCRACY IN 2030

12. EUROPE IN THE WORLD

13. EUROPE IN THE WORLD
 Meagre 6,8 percent of world population in 2030
 Concerted action ‘notwendig’
 In foreign affairs, trade and defense
 Especially strong relations with
U.S, Australia, South America, India, South
Africa
 China: ambiguous
 Eastern countries Europe trade relations with
Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Armenia (new rich
countries)

14. ECONOMIC UNION 2030
 A ‘sheer necessity’
 Banking Union and supervision
 A Euro in 2030?

15. GENERATIONAL SOLIDARITY?

16. NEW ‘WELFARE’ CONCEPT

17. NEW ‘WELFARE’ CONCEPT
 Not only focused on economic profit
 Not only competition
 Shared prosperity
 Social minimum
 Shared values
 Sobre living
 Concerted action

18. CONCRETE EXAMPLE 1:
SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY

19. CONCRETE EXAMPLE 2:
REGIONAL SOLIDARITY

20. EUROPE OF CITIES, METROPOLITAN AREAS AND
REGIONS
 EU citizens feel more connected region >
EU/Member State
 Local and regional food production
 Living labs for democratic initiatives
 Bottom-up: inclusion private sector
 Euroregions

21. CONCLUSION
• Europe as a ‘notwendige Gemeinschäft’ rather
positive
• But… less prosperity, more scarcity, ageing
population, environmental decline
• Europe becomes stronger by its crises
• In Vielfalt geeint
• Acting as a community might then just be more
necessary than we currently expect

22. DISCUSSION

23. CONTACT?
• rieskamphof@hotmail.com