Whether amongst voters, consumers or citizens, marketing savviness and selective biases are getting stronger and stronger, and audiences' technological and psychological ability to screen out voices they disagree with is growing. When they do make it through, even the most compelling lines are met with a shrug and a ‘well you would say that wouldn’t you’. Drawing on a wide range of political and consumer examples, this presentation will show how you can do more to reach your audience.

1. The [continuing] rise of super-selectivism
Ben Shimshon | BritainThinks | October 2015

2. On recent projects, we have been struck
by the way in which people filter and
digest information

3. We conducted research into how swing voters
experienced the 2015 General Election
Glasgow
East
Taunton
Deane
Dewsbury
Ealing
Central
and Acton
Thanet
South

4. Swing voters in marginal seats were inundated with
information every day for almost three months

5. And as you’d expect, they filtered out most of the noise
• The 7 way debate (personalities, not
policy)
• General coverage of the future of the
NHS
• The couple from Scunthorpe who won
the lottery twice
• Parliament was dissolved
• Lib Dems pledged an extra £2.5bn on mental
health
• 100 business leaders signed open letter
supporting Conservatives
• Party leaders took part in 7-way televised
debate
• Leaked memo alleged Sturgeon supported
Cameron
• Poll put Farage behind in Thanet South
In a week when… Our voters saw…

6. But these swing voters were selecting like
never before
“More than in any previous election,
what swing voters saw and heard
served to confirm existing views
rather than prompt reappraisal. Those
already leaning one way or another
simply spent the campaign gathering
evidence to support their view.”

7. “Labour are just ‘spend spend
spend’… I just don’t think
austerity would be dealt with
effectively enough by Labour. I’m
beginning to lack any trust at all
in them.”

8. 13
April
1Mention

9. “Ed blasted by 100
entrepreneurs
saying Labour
would be
disastrous for
business.”
(Elizabeth, Ealing Central
and Acton)
13
April
“Reduce the
deficit - Ukip and
the Conservatives
are the only
parties taking it
seriously .”
(Jonathan, Taunton
Deane)

10. “The Tories don’t care about
public services. They won’t
protect the things normal people
rely on to get by.”

11. “Pledging to
meet the £8bn…
why is the
money only
there at the
election?”
(Paul, Taunton
Deane)
10
April
… but no one
questioned
where the £££
would come
from...

12. Confirmation
Bias
Scepticism &
Marketing
Savvy
Online
Selection
Super
Selectivism+ + =

13. Scepticism &
Marketing
Savvy
Online
Selection
Super
Selectivism+ + =
Confirmation
Bias

14. Confirmation bias is the tendency to
seek out and use information in a way that
confirms one’s beliefs or early impressions,
while giving disproportionately less
attention to information that contradicts it

15. “The human understanding when it
has once adopted an opinion
(either as being the received
opinion or as being agreeable to
itself) draws all things else to
support and agree with it.”
Francis Bacon, 1620
It’s definitely not new …

16. Thucydides c.400 BC Dante Alghieri 1320 AD
It’s definitely not new … but it is important

17. Confirmation Bias: Seeking out and selecting
• Hypothesis confirmation – we gravitate towards
information sources that confirm our existing view
• Cueing and selecting – we seek out new opinions from
people and sources that we agree with on other issues
• Politicians we agree with; words and phrases we endorse;
familiar brands;
• Social norms (most people, people like me)

18. Cues from ‘elites’, be they brands, political parties or
TV personalities, can make or break consensus on an
issue
Adapted from Zaller, J; University of California, 1992 – based on 1990 NES
Before elite split - -
consensus
After elite split –
partisan divergence

19. The more attentive you are, the more likely you are to
hear messages and filter them using cues
Messages reach more
attentive people
Attentive also most
likely to use cues
Issue polarises along
party lines
Adapted from Zaller, J; University of California, 1992 – based on 1980 & 82 NES

20. Confirmation Bias: Interpreting
Improves Worsens
WITH 223 75
WITHOUT 107 21
Ratio c.3:1
Ratio c.5:1
Kahan et al:Yale University, 2013

21. Improves Worsens
WITH 223 75
WITHOUT 107 21
+
+
Kahan et al:Yale University, 2013
Confirmation Bias: Interpreting

22. Worsens Improves
WITH 223 75
WITHOUT 107 21
+
+
Kahan et al:Yale University, 2013
Confirmation Bias: Interpreting

23. I want to declare
Opportunity Britain
‘open for business’
[TRANSLATION: “immigrants welcome”]

24. Confirmation Bias: (mis)Remembering
28%
3
Days
40%
False recall
?
Schwarz: University of Michigan, 2007

25. Qualitatively, it feels like people are filtering
and selecting increasingly effectively…

26. Confirmation
Bias
Online
Selection
Super
Selectivism+ + =
Scepticism &
Marketing
Savvy

27. Consumers are increasingly dismissive of
communicators’ attempts to get heard
• You would say that, wouldn’t you?
(unless I already agree with you)
• Politicians just want our votes; companies just want
our money etc. etc. etc.
• Another personalised offer, just for
me?
• What’s arresting and disruptive one week, is tricksy
and manipulative the next
Of course they’re going
to say it’s safe, they
stand to make millions
out of it!
Male, Fylde
I hate the way they
make it look like it’s a
real letter – get lost
what do you take me
for?
Male, Derbyshire

30. Confirmation
Bias
Scepticism &
Marketing
Savvy
Super
Selectivism+ + =
Online
Selection

32. The “filter bubble” works in (at least) two ways
Hard-Wired Selection
• Personalised search &
recommendation
algorithms
• Targetted advertising &
messaging
• Timeline editing
Social Selection
• Social networking as
news source
• Recommendations from
friends
• Network building based
on preference-
proximity

33. 3x
Less likely to see
liberal content
10%
Less exposure to
conservative
news sources
Gentzkow & Shapiro: 2011

34. Corbyn
Supporter

35. My
Twitter

36. “It will be very hard for people to watch or
consume something online that has not, in
some sense, been tailored for them”
Eric Schmidt, Google
“The thing is, you don’t decide what gets in,
and more importantly, what gets edited out
of your filter bubble”
Eli Pariser, “The Filter Bubble”

37. Confirmation
Bias
Scepticism &
Marketing
Savvy
Online
Selection
Super
Selectivism+ + =

38. So what does this mean for the way
organisations communicate and engage
with citizens?: Three starting thoughts

39. 1. Start Early
• For most issues, parties
and brands, the story is
set very early
• Once those cues are in
place it’s much harder to
reach beyond your
‘natural’ audience

40. 2. Identify & understand your swing voters
• Segment ruthlessly
• Understand the people you
want to convince and
convert
• How do they think about
you/your issue?
• What are the cues they
follow, the sources they
trust?
• How will your voice be
received?
• How will they find you?

41. 3. Start from where people are (not where you wish they were)
• The arguments that convince
your core vote are unlikely to
win over your doubters
• Start from a belief that you
hold in common
• Don’t rely on ‘the facts’ to
carry you through
• Myth busting rarely works
• If you’re explaining, you’re
losing
“When it say’s
‘everyone’, I just think
of criminals who don’t
deserve anything getting
whatever they want”
Female, Manchester, unsure about HRA
“That’s what I want to
know about, how can it
help someone like me.
That could be me, and
the act sorted it for
them”
Male, Manchester, unsure about HRA

42. 1. Start Early
2. Understand your swing voters
3. Start from where people are
Confirmation
Bias
Scepticism &
Marketing
Savvy
Online
Selection
Super
Selectivism+ + =

43. Thank You
Bshimshon@britainthinks.com
@benshimshon | @britainthinks