1. How to use non-experimental data
How to improve decision-making
with non-experimental data
Prepared by J. Scott Armstrong (details on him at jscottarmstrong.com).
Please inform Scott about errors and also make suggestions (armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu)
Scott has taken these slides from adprin.com, a site that he founded. That site contains interactive versions of these
slides, along with linked references, videos, and webcasts, all in PPT and PPTX format that you can download.

2. How to improve decision-making in football
Assume that you are a football coach. It is the
4thdown and you are on the opponent’s 3-
yard line midway though the first quarter.
How would you decide whether to kick a field
goal or go for a touchdown?
How do you think most coaches would make
this decision?
How would you advise coaches to make this
decision?
When you finish writing your answers, go to the
next slide.
Adapted from AdPrin.com

3. Expert opinions vs. objective analyses of non-
experimental data
Most coaches use expert opinions.
Alternative: Analysis of non-experimental data.
The Boston Patriots football team uses this effectively.
The 15 National Basketball teams with at least one full-
time statisticians on their staff won 59% of 962 games to
date in 2009-10, while the 15 teams which no
statisticians won only 41 percent of 958 games
(Biderman 2010 in Persuasive Advertising p 8)
For more information, go to AdPrin.com

4. Based on this exercise, write a small application step for yourself,
and set a deadline, preferably within one week. If you are
working with someone else, share your application plan and the
results of your application.
• For example, find statistics on the safety of different brands of
tires before making a purchase.
Adapted from AdPrin.com