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Media Expenditures



Prepared by J. Scott Armstrong (details on him at jscottarmstrong.com).

Please inform Scott about errors and also make suggestions (armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu)

Scott has taken these slides from adprin.com, a site that he founded. That site contains interactive versions of these
slides, along with linked references, videos, and webcasts, all in PPT and PPTX format that you can download.
Estimating the impact of advertising for a typical product
                  in a typical market
Please answer the following question.
         Caution: In the past, few people could provide reasonable
         answers.
   You work for a typical firm selling a typical product in a typical
     market in the U.S.
   Last yearโ€™s sales were 50,000 units, which was typical for the
     firm.
   Last yearโ€™s advertising budget was $1 million, which was
     typical for the firm.
   You plan to spend $1.1 million on advertising this coming year
     by using typical advertising.
   How many units do you expect to sell this coming year.
     ___________________ units?
   Do your analysis and write your answer before going to the
     next slide.

                           Adapted from AdPrin.com
Information about the products

What would you estimate the unit sales if the
  product was:
  BMW cars?       _______ cars
Bud Light beer? _______ truck-loads




                   Adapted from AdPrin.com
Elasticity method
Use the elasticity method in cases where an existing
  product has been advertised.

   Advertising elasticity (or โ€œsensitivity to
    advertisingโ€) expresses the percentage
    change in unit sales given a one percent
    change in advertising expenditures.

   Given an estimated elasticity of 0.1, if advertising
     expenditure were raised by 10%, unit sales
     would go up by 1%.

                     Adapted from AdPrin.com
Average advertising elasticities
Many studies have been done to estimate the elasticity of products for
  various media.
On average the elasticity is about 0.1

So what is the answer for the first question at the start of this exercise?

                      50,500




Sethuraman&Tellis (1991), "An analysis of the tradeoff between advertising and price
    discounting,โ€ Journal of Marketing Research, 28, 160-174.

Assmus, G, J. U. Farley & D. R. Lehmann (1984), "How advertising affects sales: Meta-analysis of
   econometric results," Journal of Marketing Research, 21, 65-74.



                                        Adapted from AdPrin.com
Elasticity by type of product
Product type
   Durable       0.23
   Nondurable    0.09


So what is your new answer to BMWs versus
  Bud Lite?




                  Adapted from AdPrin.com
BMWs more responsive to advertising. Why?

More news, more information, more attention by viewers as it is high-
involvement.




                                  Adapted from AdPrin.com
Elasticity averages by media

Media
  Print            0.13
  TV               0.03

  Why the difference?




                   Adapted from AdPrin.com
Print has more information, and can explain news. Used
more for new high-involvement products




                          Adapted from AdPrin.com
Wrightโ€™s Rule
Given estimates of advertising elasticity, how much
should you spend on advertising?

Ad expenditure =
(Elasticity) x (Gross margin per unit) x (forecasted unit
sales)

Wright, Malcolm (2009), โ€œA new theorem for optimizing the
advertising budget,โ€ Journal of Advertising Research, 49 (2), 164-169.

To learn more, go to AdPrin.com


                            Adapted from AdPrin.com
Application

What would be the optimum advertising budget
for one of your products according to Wrightโ€™s
Rule?




                  Adapted from AdPrin.com

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Media expenditures

  • 1. Media Expenditures Prepared by J. Scott Armstrong (details on him at jscottarmstrong.com). Please inform Scott about errors and also make suggestions (armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu) Scott has taken these slides from adprin.com, a site that he founded. That site contains interactive versions of these slides, along with linked references, videos, and webcasts, all in PPT and PPTX format that you can download.
  • 2. Estimating the impact of advertising for a typical product in a typical market Please answer the following question. Caution: In the past, few people could provide reasonable answers. You work for a typical firm selling a typical product in a typical market in the U.S. Last yearโ€™s sales were 50,000 units, which was typical for the firm. Last yearโ€™s advertising budget was $1 million, which was typical for the firm. You plan to spend $1.1 million on advertising this coming year by using typical advertising. How many units do you expect to sell this coming year. ___________________ units? Do your analysis and write your answer before going to the next slide. Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 3. Information about the products What would you estimate the unit sales if the product was: BMW cars? _______ cars Bud Light beer? _______ truck-loads Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 4. Elasticity method Use the elasticity method in cases where an existing product has been advertised. Advertising elasticity (or โ€œsensitivity to advertisingโ€) expresses the percentage change in unit sales given a one percent change in advertising expenditures. Given an estimated elasticity of 0.1, if advertising expenditure were raised by 10%, unit sales would go up by 1%. Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 5. Average advertising elasticities Many studies have been done to estimate the elasticity of products for various media. On average the elasticity is about 0.1 So what is the answer for the first question at the start of this exercise? 50,500 Sethuraman&Tellis (1991), "An analysis of the tradeoff between advertising and price discounting,โ€ Journal of Marketing Research, 28, 160-174. Assmus, G, J. U. Farley & D. R. Lehmann (1984), "How advertising affects sales: Meta-analysis of econometric results," Journal of Marketing Research, 21, 65-74. Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 6. Elasticity by type of product Product type Durable 0.23 Nondurable 0.09 So what is your new answer to BMWs versus Bud Lite? Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 7. BMWs more responsive to advertising. Why? More news, more information, more attention by viewers as it is high- involvement. Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 8. Elasticity averages by media Media Print 0.13 TV 0.03 Why the difference? Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 9. Print has more information, and can explain news. Used more for new high-involvement products Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 10. Wrightโ€™s Rule Given estimates of advertising elasticity, how much should you spend on advertising? Ad expenditure = (Elasticity) x (Gross margin per unit) x (forecasted unit sales) Wright, Malcolm (2009), โ€œA new theorem for optimizing the advertising budget,โ€ Journal of Advertising Research, 49 (2), 164-169. To learn more, go to AdPrin.com Adapted from AdPrin.com
  • 11. Application What would be the optimum advertising budget for one of your products according to Wrightโ€™s Rule? Adapted from AdPrin.com