COVID, behavioural change, economics, acceleration, youth consumer behaviour. More information here: https://renaissancechambara.jp/2020/12/25/looking-back-at-2020/

1. Looking back at change in
2020
Some trend analysis that I was asked to write in the spring, when
the UK went into it’s first lockdown. Accompanied by hindsight
Ged Carroll - renaissancechambara.jp

2. Vectors of change
Disruption or acceleration?
• The balance of evidence and history tends to
support acceleration over disruption. During the
2008 recession. We saw an acceleration of
everything from online banking to online
advertising. During the great depression you saw
an accelerated adoption of radio as a medium.
Now, we’ve seen a rise in online grocery sales,
up from 7% to 20% of UK households – an
acceleration of a slowly growing retail category.
We have also seen a lot of undercapitalised retail
and food & beverage businesses go to the wall.
Many of them were already in trouble such as
Byron
Demand-side and supply-side economics
• Economics affected and was affected by COVID-
19. Airlines had to be bailed out as they had less
than five months of liquidity left. We’ve yet to see
how this will impact future airline choice or even
the disappearance of categories like discount
airlines
Behaviour change
• We saw countries around the world adopting the
kind of mask culture that I had only previously
seen in east Asian countries (China, Hong Kong,
Korea & Japan)
Maximum chance of
change
Acceleration
Demand-side &
supply-side
economicsBehaviour change

3. Acceleration
The future is already here, its just unevenly
distributed – William Gibson

4. Accelerating trends
Accelerating trends will affect organisation
behaviour, as well as consumer behaviour. It would
affect expectations of services. We had past
analogues to go from. Amazon changed
expectations of services delivered online. This
changed areas like online banking. There was an
expectation that this would in health. What R/GA
called ‘human-centered health’
• Teleworking
• Contactless payments
• Consumer grade PPE
• E-commerce adoption surge
• Digital media consumption, (but only 30 more
minutes, offline media consumption went up
too)
• Health tech adoption at health providers

5. Behaviour change
“Epidemics put pressure on the societies
they strike. This strain makes visible latent
structures that might not otherwise be
evident. As a result, epidemics provide a
sampling device for social analysis. They
reveal what really matters to a population
and whom they truly value.” – Dr. David S.
Jones, professor of the culture of medicine
at Harvard University

6. Five stages of human behaviour pandemic
response
Stage 1
Denial
Stage 2
Anxiety
Stage 3
Adjustment
Stage 4
Re-evaluation
Stage 5
New normal

7. Denial
People downplayed the impact of an
epidemic. This was especially prevalent in the
west, where they hadn’t experienced SARS
or MERS and the first signs were
geographically distant.
Initial media stories played up fears and
exaggerated consequences. This
encouraged people to keep denying what
they saw, read and heard about COVID-19.
Humans are hardwired to respond to
environmental threats with fight or flight
impulses.
The same defence responses are often
triggered by witnessing others fear, which
explains mass panic attacks at concerts and
sporting events. A similar phenomenon
applies to the rapid spread via sharing of fear-
based stories around coronavirus.
Stage 1
Denial
Stage 2
Anxiety
Stage 3
Adjustment
Stage 4
Re-evaluation
Stage 5
New normal

8. Anxiety
As more cases of infection were tracked and
the scale of COVID-19 infections began to be
recognised, collective anxiety built up –
pressure from citizens on governments and
institutions forced them to attempt to act with
authority. Those societies with high trust
levels in their government like Korea, Taiwan
and New Zealand fared better. Misinformation
and disinformation continued to thrive in an
uncertain environment. The ways that people
perceived their role in the crisis varied. Social
tension increased online and in media
commentary as individuals clashed over what
constituted an appropriate response.
In the US, 60% of survey respondents said
that they didn’t trust the president’s
statements on COVID-19.
Stage 1
Denial
Stage 2
Anxiety
Stage 3
Adjustment
Stage 4
Re-evaluation
Stage 5
New normal

9. Adjustment
Everyday habits adjusted to COVID-19
limitations. People grew accustomed to life indoors.
Homes were given makeovers. They got used to
maintaining relationships virtually, FaceTime, Signal and
LINE have been a godsend for me.
But society as a whole continues to be strained –
government restrictions continue to impact people
unevenly and deepen social tensions. We maybe only at
the start of the pandemic’s economic consequences.
These will continue to be felt afterwards. Which explains
why we’re seeing evidence of what is called a K-shaped
recovery.
In 2013, NASA asked a group of astronauts to live in a
remote location to understand the psychological effects
of voluntary long-term isolation. Under these conditions,
they found that the ‘micro’ was amplified. Small
pleasures – such as the smell of fresh-cut grass, taking a
bath, or exercising – and social bonds became crucial to
daily life. The flipside of this is that the sound of someone
else breathing can be an annoyance
They also found that remembering one’s purpose and
engaging in creative activities helped counteract the
cabin fever derived from boredom and frustration.
Stage 1
Denial
Stage 2
Anxiety
Stage 3
Adjustment
Stage 4
Re-evaluation
Stage 5
New normal

10. Re-evaluation
As people considered about adaption to COVID-19 and
weathered the crisis, they’ll rethink life moving forward.
But a shift in perspective might not always result in
lasting behavioural change. In China, 82% of people say
they’ll go back to eating out once the outbreak subsides,
while 77% say they’ll return to out-of-home leisure. There
is also the famous footage of an EDM pool party in
Wuhan post-pandemic.
Stage 1
Denial
Stage 2
Anxiety
Stage 3
Adjustment
Stage 4
Re-evaluation
Stage 5
New normal

11. New normal
At the beginning of the pandemic there were wide
ranging expectations of how long COVID-19 would last
and how severe the impact would be.
The longer the effect, the more likely that behaviour
change could stick. A classic example of this would be
how masks became part of public hygiene for cold and
flu symptoms in Asian countries that experienced SARS.
According academic research, lasting habits take an
average of 66 days to form. After this window, their
imprint is likely to remain, even if the initial driver fades.
The intensity of the COVID-19 impact in terms of health,
technological acceleration, behavioural change and
economics will determine which new ways of living will
stick. For instance, retail will be changed the
bankruptcies that have rippled through the sector and
the high street. Compressing at least a decade of
change into as many months.
It is still an open question as to whether people will prefer
to work remotely, or keep up those at-home workouts
once the lockdown is lifted.
Stage 1
Denial
Stage 2
Anxiety
Stage 3
Adjustment
Stage 4
Re-evaluation
Stage 5
New normal

12. Consumer behaviour vs. stages
DENIAL ANXIETY ADJUSTMENT REEVALUATE
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Investigating and
broadcasting
information
NEW NORMAL
Stage 5
Authority
Direction
Responsibility
Intervention
SOCIETAL
RESPONSE
EMOTIONAL
NEED
BRAND
RESPONSES
Mobilising resources
and energy
Clarity
Security
Generosity
Solidarity
Policing behaviour
and mitigating fallout
Support
Entertainment
Innovation
Adaptation
Identifying and applying
long-term measures
Reflection
Recovery
Hope
Regeneration
Assimilation of new
and old behaviours

13. Brand behaviour
change
Consumers surveyed looked for businesses to lead the
response. Out of 13 markets surveyed only 3 felt
government leadership in response was more important
than multinationals. The greatest efforts were expected
of local businesses in a country.
• 81% felt that brands should provide free services to
pitch in
• The most affected countries wanted the most action
• In most markets audiences felt that local businesses
were doing more than multinationals
Brand purpose wasn’t just about ‘brand health’. Brands
were expected to step away from brand positioning if
necessary. Luxury group LVMH made utilitarian hand gel.
The data implied that whilst brands maybe wary of non-
brand value association, it was just as dangerous is the
association with not contributing.
Where the contribution was reflected in marketing,
brands often got the tone wrong.

14. Economics

15. Initial negative economic forecasts seen

16. Economic forecasts
Historically, economies that have gone
through something similar to COVID-19
have bounced back.
In China we have seen a return to
economic growth. Outside of China this
has been complicated by non-COVID-19
based effects. Such as the Chinese trade
sanctions on Australia.

17. Post COVID-19
business impact
At the time of the first lockdown, the sustained stock
market rally wasn’t an obvious conclusion. The business
landscape was expected to change through refinancing
and consolidation. This might change consumer
behaviour as much as the virus itself. For instance by
affecting choice on the high street
• Governments have taken on increased debt. At the
moment the OECD doesn’t think that this is a bad
thing
• British companies trying to survive the coronavirus
lockdown were saddled with as much as £105bn of
unsustainable debt
• Consumer spending had dropped by a third and
hasn’t recovered
Sectors at imminent risk of ‘collapse’. (Collapse is a
relative term, the airline sector goes through financial
restructuring on a regular basis since deregulation
started in the 1970s)
• Retailing
• Retail property
• Travel

19. The young
Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit
the national debt. – Herbert Hoover

20. Telemedicine
Young people aren’t necessarily at the
forefront of technology adoption; usually
assumed in language like digital natives.
One example of this was their use of
telemedicine.
• Consumer marketing research house
Civic Science showed dramatic
changes in usage and intent amongst
Americans surveyed as COVID 19 hit
• Young adults were the one
demographic who weren’t following
this behaviour change

21. The resisting
In addition to technology, a significant
minority of young people seemed to not live
up to their media literate stereotype.
The resisting was found to represent 9% of
UK population, but skews young. 81% are in
the 16-34 year age group.
• Only 49% of group complying with
lockdown rules all the time
• 58% agree with the statement – too much
fuss is being made about the risk of
coronavirus – 6 times higher than other
groups
• Much more likely to be taking measures
going against official guidance like
homeopathic remedies (50%)
• More likely to believe conspiracy theories
and fake news about coronavirus*

22. References and sources
Data sources
• https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/31/coronavirus-britons-made-80m-extra-grocery-shops-
in-less-than-a-month
• https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=-
02fDwAAQBAJ&lpg=PT166&ots=4HbpoAPjG8&dq=radio%20adoption%20great%20depression&pg=PT166
#v=onepage&q=radio%20adoption%20great%20depression&f=false
• https://www.ft.com/content/a932f469-eef2-4c85-9edb-38d4dc9c1e73
• https://www.ft.com/content/cc70d690-99a6-4056-9ebe-d0b39c40a359
• https://www.cityam.com/british-public-increasingly-concerned-about-lockdown-lift-this-
weekend/?dm_i=61YZ%2C1UCJ%2CP38X2%2C6X7G%2C1
• A More Human Future of Health – R/GA
• https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alexkantrowitz/twitter-will-allow-employees-to-work-at-home-forever
• https://www.med-technews.com/news/advisory-board-calls-for-plan-to-sustain-covid-19-healthtech/
• https://www.mobilepaymentstoday.com/news/aci-worldwide-reports-surge-in-global-e-commerce-retail-
amid-covid-19/
• https://www.just-food.com/news/nestle-ceo-expects-post-covid-19-boost-for-e-commerce_id143574.aspx
• https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/apr/21/netflix-new-subscribers-covid-19-lockdown
• https://civicscience.com/nearly-3-in-10-u-s-adults-have-now-tried-telemedicine-but-gen-z-lags-behind/
Photography
All photos my own, unless indicated below
• William Gibson by pmonaghan - https://flic.kr/p/axkiS3
• Amazon.com by Paul Swansen - https://flic.kr/p/HetwD
• Hong Kong protests 2019 by Jonathan van Smit - https://flic.kr/p/2ho2m9d
• Circuit city bankruptcy - https://flic.kr/p/66rCch
• blah

23. References
Data sources
• https://www.fastcompany.com/90477966/evolution-explains-why-were-falling-victim-to-fear-contagion-as-
covid-19-spreads
• https://www.canvas8.com/navigating-covid-19.html
• https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-social-media-b56326b6-ab16-4c8a-bc86-e29b06e5ab2b.html
• https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/poll-americans-lack-trust-in-trump-on-coronavirus-information-
133576
• https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/retailing-bounces-back-with-42-rise-in-homeware-sales-z2td278l7
• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-10/how-a-k-shaped-recovery-is-widening-u-s-
inequality-quicktake
• https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/nasa-hi-seas-space-travel-coronavirus-isolation.html
• https://www.kantar.com/Inspiration/Coronavirus/Measuring-the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-on-Chinas-
consumption
• https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/18/wuhan-goes-wild-thousands-attend-pool-party-in-former-covid-19-
epicentre
• https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3505409/
• https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-the-retail-industry-2020-was-a-wild-ride-11608044400
• Wavemaker – Restart 2020, post-outbreak opportunities and implications for brands.
• https://voxeu.org/article/persistence-covid-induced-global-recession
• https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/21/foundation-of-chinas-economic-recovery-not-yet-solid-leaders-say.html
• https://www.ft.com/content/28fbd0d1-c5be-4a8b-8c63-b14c746ee8bc
• https://www.ft.com/content/149e3547-0649-48be-bed8-47216de35315
• https://www.ft.com/content/f402d0e0-652e-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
• https://www.ft.com/content/75476d15-051a-4e51-8e57-f15b1649cbf4
• https://www.ft.com/content/630f744a-148a-4955-b75f-e649d908f097
• https://traveltips.usatoday.com/history-airline-industry-100074.html
• https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2017/aviation-operations-inside-airlines-struggle-balance-
profitability-performance.aspx
• https://www.ft.com/content/3180a1b3-ad68-4d7f-ac81-b762162bab98
• https://www.ft.com/content/1aca0802-8f9f-11ea-9b25-c36e3584cda8
• https://doi.org/10.1787/7969896b-en
• McKinsey & Company - COVID-19: Briefing Note Global Health & Crisis Response Updated: March 16, 2020
• https://www.ft.com/content/69c75de6-9c6b-4bca-b110-2a55296b0875