1. WWF Japan proposes an energy scenario to decarbonize Japan's economy by 2050 through massive energy savings, phasing out nuclear power, and increasing renewable energy supply. 2. Their analysis shows that energy demand can be halved by 2050 through energy efficiency measures. Renewable energy sources like solar, wind and biomass are sufficient to meet Japan's energy needs and the costs will decrease over time as the transition is made. 3. While the power grid will require investments to accommodate more renewable energy, studies show it can adapt if changes are made early. WWF Japan calls for ambitious targets and a shift to more renewable-centric thinking to achieve a 100% renewable energy system.

1. 1
WWFJapan’sEnergyVision
EnergyScenarioProposalforDecarbonizingJapan
Naoyuki Yamagishi
Leader, Climate and Energy Group
WWF Japan
3 February 2014
IISSEEPP––GGoo110000%%RReenneewwaabblleeCCoommmmuunniittiieess
© Global Warming Images / WWF-Canon

2. 2
“How can we achieve
100% Renewable in Japan?”

3. 3
Wedidourhomework–Fourstudiestoexamine100%REinJapan
Part I
Energy
Efficiency
Part II
Renewables
Part III
Cost Analysis
Part IV
Power Grid
July
2011
November
2011
March
2013
September
2013
Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan

4. 4
ARelativelySimpleVision
2012
2020
2030
2040
2050
Reduced
Demand
Business
As
Usual
Nuclear
1. Cutting energy
demand through
massive energy
savings
2. Phasing out nuclear 3. Increase the
supply of RES

5. 5
“We need much more energy!”
Part I
Energy
Efficiency
July
2011

6. 6
No,wedon’t:Wecanhalvetheenergyconsumption.
0
50,000
100,000
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1990
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2010
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1,000
TOE
Final
Energy
Consumption
in
WWF
Scenario
WWF
BAU
Historical
Final Energy Consumption will be reduced to
about half of the 2008 level

7. 7
“Do We have
Enough renewables in Japan?”
Part II
Renewables
November
2011

8. 8
Yes,wehave.
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MTOE
PV
on
vehcles
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Biomass
Wind
PV
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

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SimulationofElectricityDemand-Supply24hours/365days
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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22
GWh
Hours
Simulated dynamics of hourly electricity supply
(example of 3 days - May 23 to 25)
Geothermal Hydro Biomass Wind PV Discharging BAT

10. 10
“Isn’t is going to be
ridiculously expensive?”
Part III
Cost Analysis
March
2013

11. 11
Notquite.Maybeabitinthefirststage.Butitpaysoff.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-200
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1,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Unit:TrillionJPY
Cost Ratios to GDP (5-year Avg per GDP)
GDP (Trillion JPY)
CapEx raitio to GDP
OpEx ratio to GDP
Net ratio to GDP

12. 12
“Can Japanese power grid
accommodate that much of
Renewables?”
Part IV
Power Grid
September
2013

13. 13
Yes,itcan. Ifweinvestinitearly.

14. 14
A couple of things we need….

15. 15
WeneedtoAimforIt. WeneedTargets
2020 2030 2040 2050
To 2008 -21.0% -33.9% -42.8% -51.8%
TargetsforEnergyEfficiency (FinalEnergyConsumption)
TargetsforRenewables(%ofelectricity)
2008 2020 2030 2040 2050
Share in Electricity excl fuel use 11% 29% 54% 81% 100%
Share in Electricity incl fuel use 11% 32% 63% 87% 100%
TargetsforRenewableFuelandHeat(%ofnon-electricityenergy)
2008 2020 2030 2040 2050
Share in Fuel and Heat 1% 15% 38% 56% 73%

16. 16
AmbitiousCO2EmissionReduction
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
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1,400
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Mt-CO2
BAU Scenario
WWF Scenario
-25% -58% -83% -100%

17. 17
Also,weneedtodoubtourordinarythinking.
Geother
mal
Hydro
Biomass
Wind
PV
Battery
0
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160
180
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22
GWh
Hours
(example of May 23)
Fossil Fuel and Nuke Centric Renewable Centric

18. 18
World is what we make of it.

19. 19

20. 20
SupplementalSlides
– In case, you are interested.

21. 21
Electricityonly–withoutheat/fueluse
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PV
Biomass
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Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

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Electricityonly–withheat/fueluse
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Wind
for
fuel
PV
for
fuel
Wind
PV
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal