Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Presentation of plan bleu ee indicators 2011 fr pp 2

475 views

Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Presentation of plan bleu ee indicators 2011 fr pp 2

  1. 1. Project of energy conservation indicators in thecountries of southern shore of the Mediterranean Kick-off Workshop, Tunis, January 6-7, 2011 by El Habib EL ANDALOUSSI Programme Officer- Energy, Plan Bleu
  2. 2. Projet étude de construction d’un ensembled’indicateurs de maîtrise de l’énergie dans les pays de la rive Sud & Est de la Méditerranée Kick-off Meeting, Atelier, Tunis, 6-7 Janvier 2011 Par El Habib EL ANDALOUSSI Plan Bleu
  3. 3. Plan of the presentationEnergy context in the SEMCsObjectifves and expected results of the studySteps of the studyOrganisation of the studyContexte énergétique dans les PSMEObjectifs et résultats attendus de l’étudeEtapes de l’étudeOrganisation de l’étude
  4. 4. Demography and Economy in the SEMCs Population growth 2.2%/y between 1971 & 2008. (from 125 to 282 millions in 2008 in the SEMCs) GDP growth4%/year between 1971 & 2007. (from $440b to $1954b in 2007 in the SEMCs)
  5. 5. Energy intensity in 2006 ( toe per GDP unit - Millions of euros 2005 pppSource : WDI, IEA, Plan Bleu computation
  6. 6. Energy situation in the SEMCs Total Final Enegy Consumption cin the SEMCs : - by Sector - by Source
  7. 7. CO2 Emissions in the SEMCsCO2 Emissions by Sector in the SEMCs
  8. 8. Energy situation in the SEMCs Sustained growth in demand in SEMCs  Electricity: nearly 4% per year between 2007 and 2030  Primary Energy Demand: 3% per year SEMCs Energy Demand (Mtoe ) % annual growth Reference Scenario 1970 2007 2030 1970-2007 2007-2030Primary Energy Demand 44 306 626 5.4% 3.2% Total Final Cons. (TFC) 35 213 429 5.0% 3.1% Transport 10 57 95 4.9% 2,.% Residential 12 53 125 4.1% 3.8% Industry 9 67 137 5.6% 3.1% Other cons. 4 34 73 6.1% 3.4%Power Production (TWh) 32 534 1302 7.9% 3.9% CO2 Emissions (Mt) 65 775 1535 6.9% 3.0%
  9. 9. Energy situation in the SEMCs Increased energy dependency 79% 70%
  10. 10. Needs for energy efficiency policies Need to put in place accelerated energy efficiency policies Need for methodologies and tools for monitoring and evaluation of energy demand side management policies.About 90 Mtoe
  11. 11. Objectives and expected results of the studyStrengthening the capacity of SEMCs in monitoring theirenergy policies by using the indicator approach toenergy management.Construct and interpret a set of relevant indicators ofenergy conservation in the SEMCs.Construct and interpret a set of energy conservationsocio- economic impact indicators.Target countries  Algeria Preparation of a background  Egypt paper presenting an  Jordan aggregated analysis of indicators at the region  Lebanon level and a comparative  Libya analysis between the  Morocco concerned countries.  Palestine  Syria Tunisia
  12. 12. Overview on indicator approach: Why we need indicators?Definition and monitoring of the targets set at thenational and international levels of energyefficiency and CO2 abatement programs.Evaluation of the energy efficiency programs thathave been implemented.Planning tool of future actions, including R&Dprograms.Feeding the energy demand forecasting modelsand improving the quality of forecasts.Enable cross-country comparisons& benchmarking
  13. 13. Overview on indicator approach: Categories of indicators?Descriptive indicators Energy intensity at macro level, by energy Energy intensity at sector level Specific consumption in branches Unit consumption, etc.Explicative indicators Indicators at constant structure Indicators with climate corrections Indicators at Parity of Power Purchase Quantity effects Consumption unit effect Energy saving Energy efficiency indexSocio-impact indicators
  14. 14. Steps of the studyPreparation phase  Choice of indicators in a participating approach  Preparation of the data needed  Preparation of the tool for calculating indicators  Recruiting experts countriesOrganization of workshops with national experts : Workshops of 2 to 3 days.Data collection and preparation of country reportsProject coordination and assistance to nationalexpertsOrganizing workshop to discuss applications & workof national expertsPreparation of final reportOrganization of a final workshopDissemination and exploitation of results.
  15. 15. Study Organisation Organization of implementation  A general coordinator of the mission  Partnership with RCREEE,  10 national experts  Transfer the experience of Tunisia to other countries (methodology, tools, expertise)  Integration of data and results to Plan Bleu database, opened to the all users Planning of the study M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 M13 M14 M15Etape 1: PréparationEtape 2: Atelier de travail avec les expertsEtape 3: Collectes des données et élaboration des rapports paysEtape 4: Coordination et assistance aux consultantsEtape 5: Atelier de restitution des travaux des consultantsEtape 6 : Elaboration du rapportEtape 7 : Atelier final Duration of the study : 15 months
  16. 16. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION For more informationwww.planbleu.org OR www.rcreee.org Contacts :ehelandaloussi @planbleu.org alcor@planet.tn amel.bida@rcreee.org 16
  17. 17. Electricity in the Med Electricity in the Mediterranean
  18. 18. MEDITERRANEAN : Evolution of the parameters (1970=index 100)4000 PSEM : Evolution des paramètres (1970=index 100)3500 Energie Electricité30002500 Electricité2000 Strong growth on the PNB energy & electricity1500 Pop Energie consumptions in the1000 Mediterranean PNB500 Pop 0 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 19 2019 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 800 Méditérranée : Evolution des paramètres (1970=index 100) Electricité Energie 600 Electricité PNB PNB 400 Energie Pop Pop 200 0 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 20
  19. 19. Energy & Electricity Potential Savings in the Med, by 2025-2030 Potentiel des économies d’énergie en Méditerranée, si fortes politiques EE. Potential of Energy & Electricity savings in the Mediterranean, if efforts in the EE policies.Nécessité de maître enplace des politiquesaccélérées de maîtrise del’énergieBesoins deméthodologies et d’outilsde suivi et évaluation despolitiques de ME
  20. 20. Energy situation in the SEMCs Increased energy dependency 79% 70%
  21. 21. Energy economies potential, 1980-2005 (nanojoules) Potential energy savings in the SEMCs, if efforts in EE policies.
  22. 22. CO2 Emissions in the SEMCs CO2 Emissions in the SEMCs.
  23. 23. Publication of a report on Energy Outlook 2025 in the MediterraneanSource : Report available online, www.planbleu.org’Infrastructures et Développement Energétique en Méditerranée : Perspectives 2025’,’ Les Cahiers du Plan Bleu 6, 2009. ‘’Infrastructures and Sustainable Energy Development in the Mediterranean: Outlook 2025’’, Blue Plan Papers 6, 2009.

×