Summary: Lumber production in Canada is still down 10% since Sept/19 and about 25% since Oct/15 Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 20218. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.

1. What is happening to
World’s forest?
Paul Young CPA CGA
April 2, 2022

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. Agenda
• Commodity Prices
• Global Housing Market
outlook
• Housing Starts – North
America
• Merchandise Trade
• Wages / Forestry Sector
• Employment
• Issues facing Forestry
• Justin Trudeau and the
Forestry Sector
• Technology and Forestry Sector
• West Fraser and Forestry
• Carbon Sink
• Government Cutbacks and
Global deforestation
Poor urban planning
Eco-Terrorism
Automation / Forestry Management
Siberia
Forest Fires
California / Fires
3D Housing
What’s next

4. Commodity Prices
Source - https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/global-economics/commodity-price-index.html or
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
“Softwood lumber prices slowly recover from
recent lows: May 2019”
Source - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/softwood-
lumber-prices-slowly-recover-from-recent-lows-
may-2019/
Source
https://us.spindices.com/indices/
commodities/sp-gsci

5. Housing vs Lumber Costs

6. Housing vs Lumber Costs
Sawmills (Forestry
and Lumber) - Canada - January 2022.pdf

7. Global Housing Outlook
Source -
https://www.fool.com/
the-ascent/personal-
finance/articles/4-signs-
that-a-housing-market-
crash-is-coming/
4 Signs That a
Housing Market Crash Is Coming.pdf

8. Merchandise Trade
Source - Stats Canada

9. Forestry Sector (Wages)
Source - https://www.livingin-canada.com/salaries-for-forestry-professionals-canada.html or
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190530/dq190530a-eng.htm
Average wages annually $52,800/year
• Forestry Sector pays between 25% to
70% higher wages than the service
sector
• Forestry sector personal income tax
ranges are between 35% to 40%

10. Forestry Employment
Source - https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/statsprofile/employment/ca

11. Issue facing Forestry
• Softwood Lumber dispute - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/overall-impact-of-softwood-lumber-dispute-minimal-for-
canada-economist~1108540 or https://www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com/canada-has-filed-appeal-against-wtos-april-ruling-in-softwood-
lumber-dispute-with-us/
• Carbon Tax – Carbon tax is added on to the cost of production https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities/video/applying-carbon-tax-
without-cutting-back-regulations-may-be-costly-jack-mintz~1649746
• High stumpage cost - https://www.timescolonist.com/business/teal-jones-shuts-down-logging-in-honeymoon-bay-citing-high-log-costs-
1.23841024
• Hydro Rates - https://www.drydennow.com/local/rickford-aims-to-cut-costs-for-forestry-sector
• Excessive regulations - http://www.chamber.ca/media/news-releases/Canada-competiveness-ranking-drops-4-spots-in-2-years/
• Small business tax reforms - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/cfib-concerned-by-potential-tax-hits-to-small-businesses-
in-2019~1560874
• Forestry losses - https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/global-tree-cover-loss-data-2019
• PBO / Tree Fund - https://www.570news.com/2021/01/28/liberals-two-billion-trees-promise-to-cost-2-78-billion-more-than-planned-pbo-
says/

12. Technology / Forestry Sector
Source - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/how-technology-is-transforming-bcs-forest-industry-
5248/
• Investment into new technologies is revolutionizing the way Canada’s forest industry does business.
The federal government reports between 2005 and 2015, Canada’s forest industry cut its total energy use
by 31 per cent and reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 49 per cent by generating bioenergy from
waste products and increasing energy efficiency.
• AI and Forestry - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/ai-can-help-us-map-forests-down-to-
each-tree/
• Automation - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/fully-automated-applying-robotic-solutions-to-the-
sawmill/
• Supply Chain/Digital = https://www.poyry.com/news/articles/how-will-digitalisation-boost-
forestry-operations
• Analytics and Forestry Management - https://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/tag/6399

13. West Fraser Forestry
Source -
https://www.canadian
manufacturing.com/fina
ncing/west-fraser-says-
worst-of-its-b-c-mill-
cuts-done-after-wave-of-
curtailments-236315/

14. Softwood Lumber - History
Source - https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/04/b-c-lumber-
industry-celebrates-nafta-panel-decision-in-trade-dispute-with-us/

15. Carbon Sink

16. De-forestation
https://www.nationalge
ographic.com/environm
ent/global-
warming/deforestation/

17. Eco-Terrorism and other ignition points
There has been a rise in eco-terrorism
• Australia bushfires - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50568026
• BC Wildfires - https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/rcmp-say-arson-behind-29-okanagan-
wildfires-over-last-four-years
• Amazon - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/arsonists-are-torching-the-
amazon-this-elite-team-of-firefighters-stands-in-their-way/2019/10/08/525330f4-d8a8-11e9-a688-
303693fb4b0b_story.html
• California Appl Fire caused by a poorly maintained car -
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/04/apple-fire-at-26450-acres-relief-crews-for-weary-
firefighters-arriving/
• Oregon Fires - https://ktvz.com/news/fire/2020/07/28/three-suspicious-la-pine-area-wildfires-
investigated-as-arson-tips-sought/
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-world-headed-to-more-ecoterrorism

18. Forestry Fires
Fire was purposely set/Eco-Terrorism
San Jose Fire/Cal Fire
Power Lines
Balloon collides with power line that sent sparks to
the ground
• Mitigation
• More insulation of wires - https://energized.edison.com/stories/insulated-wires-help-reduce-wildfire-
risk
• Use of AI and Data Analytics in terms of forest prevention/detection

19. Governmen
t Cutbacks
/
Environme
nt/ Audits
• Could it be the cuts in key areas along with poor urban planning makes the narrative for the govt
look good in terms pro climate change?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-planning-issues-facing-urban-planners-april-
2019 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/forest-management-practices-world-april-2019
or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/environment-canada-whats-next
• Lack of a flood map - https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/ca/opinion/updated-flood-maps-
coming-to-canada-78259.aspx
• Rail and Fire - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/ontario-government-sues-cn-rail-for-
millions-in-firefighting-costs-1.2927083?fbclid=IwAR2_hehuCPiCxUrKa16hfbVhf1JXOT-
tkwRrNNTZwPu8FFnUxgVVLYx3198
• Parks Canada - https://www.hellulandnews.com/science/2017/8/21/the-failure-of-parks-canada
• Budget cuts – Feds - https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal-government-cutting-back-on-
disaster-assistance-as-floods-become-more-severe
• PQ Floods = https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/quebec-floods-recede-but-
competing-demands-fill-prevention-debate/article34981361/
• Wildfire mgmt. https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-premier-rachel-notley-
defends-cut-in-wildfire-budget
• Auditor/Tree planting - https://globalnews.ca/news/5201294/ontario-government-cancels-tree-
planting-
program/beta/?utm_expid=.kz0UD5JkQOCo6yMqxGqECg.1&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fww
w.google.com%2F “A spokeswoman for Natural Resources and Forestry Minister John
Yakabuski said the government is committed to balancing the budget in a responsible
manner. Justine Lewkowicz said in a statement that the forestry industry, which depends on a
sustainable supply of wood, is a responsible steward of the province’s forests. On average, the
forestry industry plants 68 million trees per year, creating jobs for foresters, nurseries, and
tree planters,” she wrote.” – This was make work project that never generated the benefits

20. Automation
• Using drones to plant trees - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/06/flash-
forest-and-tree-planting-with-
drones.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed
%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29
• Innovation / planting - https://www.fastcompany.com/90504789/these-drones-
can-plant-40000-trees-in-a-month-by-2028-theyll-have-planted-1-billion
• Tree Planting / Drones -
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/treeplanting-drones-could-help-
restore-world-s-forests-a4116376.html

21. Canada Boreal Forest
• Canada’s boreal forest make up 9% of the world forest -
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/forests-
forestry/how-much-forest-does-canada-have/17601

22. Siberia
• Eco-Terrorism - https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/29/siberian-officials-
suspected-of-starting-wildfires-a70137
• Lighting strikes - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49125391 or Zombie fires -
https://eos.org/articles/the-rise-of-zombie-fires
• Forest management practices -
https://www.euractiv.com/section/biomass/news/forestry-seen-as-key-to-russian-
climate-change-efforts/ or https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-08-
21/russia-siberia-forest-fires-policy-change

23. Forest Fires – BC and California
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_blog-forestry-management-and-california-
activity-6703181159909724160-qWzg
I think all levels of government need to take a hard look at how they managed their forest to mitigate
the impacts of wildfires

24. Audits
• Significant financial-control weaknesses / NS Forestry and Land -
https://globalnews.ca/news/6095967/nova-scotia-auditor-general-financial-report/
• Forestry Management / City of Toronto -
https://globalnews.ca/news/5221912/toronto-forestry-crews-audit/
• Audit – Clear Cut and Water Management - https://thenarwhal.ca/muddied-waters-
how-clearcut-logging-is-driving-a-water-crisis-in-b-c-s-interior/
• Tree planning / Corporations - https://www.terracestandard.com/news/skeena-
sawmills-in-terrace-contracts-local-firms-for-2020-reforestation-projects/
• Timber Audits -
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2020.10.0543.html
• Australia - https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/multiple-problems-
with-state-logging-agency-damning-audit-reveals-20201008-p563dj.html

25. California / Fires
Source - https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-09-11/california-wildfires-climate-change-gavin-
newsom-trump
• California has done poor job with management of its forests - With CA ablaze, Newsom blasts Trump admin
for failing to fight climate change Source - https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/14/californias-government-
solely-responsible-for-states-forest-management-and-wildfire-debacle/
It is time to for governments to bring in better forest mgmt. practices
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-economic-management-state-and-local-government-
united-states

26. Blog - COP26 deforestation deal key to slowing climate change, but
Canada must tackle issues of carbon accounting and industry
@forestecogrp
For this commitment to have a meaningful impact, Canada must continue with reforestation and prioritize
protection of its intact, primary forests. We can hope the Trudeau government will use this commitment as a
push to rapidly transition away from extractive practices toward more sustainable economic activities, and
dovetail these efforts with the goals of conservation and reconciliation.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/cop26-deforestation-deal-key-to-slowing-climate-change-
but-canada-must-tackle-issues-of-carbon-accounting-and-industry/
Oil sands restore the land back to its normal state – https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/oil-sands-
producers-team-up-to-plant-more-than-five-million-trees/
Tree planting - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/forests-ontario-plants-2-8-million-trees-this-
planting-season-800757167.html
The provincial government have slashed their forestry budgets
Canada is a carbon sink! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-mitigate-the-threats-of-climate-
change-october-2021-250548062

27. LPC / Tree Planting
• https://tnc.news/2020/11/02/government-says-no-plan-or-budget-for-trudeaus-two-billion-trees-
promise/
More lies from the Liberals under @JustinTrudeau and @cafreeland when it comes to the
environment
Here is my work on the environment - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/clean-technology-
and-the-green-economy-what-is-next (see slide 53 and 57)

28. Latest / Softwood Lumber
• Duties – Softwood - https://www.supplypro.ca/canada-calls-us-softwood-
lumber-duties-unfair/
• USA Commerce and Softwood Lumber -
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-
news/commerce-lowers-canadian-softwood-lumber-duties-reactions-mixed
• USA and Trade - https://biv.com/article/2020/11/biden-will-be-better-
canadian-resource-exports-analysts-say

29. 3D Housing
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/3d-printing-ready-for-primetime-with-new-construction-
pharmaceutical-applications-thomas-index-report/?ecms_id=a7ed05d6-36e2-4aaf-83a3-
676d69e47cb5&ecms_short=ART6564&doc_type=ted_video_article&parent_id=90fd848c-3c3f-4695-
b494-
4979f5ffe07a&utm_content=featuredvideo&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_indus
try_update&campaign_name=tiu220207&utm_campaign=tiu220207&utm_medium=email&utm_source=t
homas_industry_update&tinid=221763045
@Taleeb
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/08/30/vancouver-liberal-taleeb-noormohamed-real-estate/
Can have you testify at the house committee on affordable housing as to why you were flipping so many
houses?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-address-systemic-issues-with-affordabiity-and-
availability-of-housing

30. What’s next
• Lumber production in Canada is still down 10% since Sept/19 and about 25% since Oct/15
• Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
• Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 20218. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been
planted.
• All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
• More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
• Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
• There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
• 3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
• More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
• There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
Blog – What is next for Forestry Sector
Sawmills (Forestry
and Lumber) - Canada - January 2022.pdf
Lumber Prices
Remain Volatile But Could Consolidate - Copy.pdf
Lawmakers echo
NAHB concerns on rising lumber prices, tariffs.pdf
Real-Time Market
Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble - Dallasfed.org.pdf
Economist on this
year's housing market 'You'll be disappointed'.pdf
The government sets
CO2 limits for concrete for federa
Photos Luxury
350-Square-Foot 3D Printed Tiny Home in Austin.pdf
sustainability-14-0420
9.pdf
Canada’s Forestry
Sector is World-Class. Here’s Proof. - Todayville.pdf
Critical wildfire
prevention work to continue this spring Resort Municipality of Whistler.pdf
Tropical forests have
big climate benefits beyond carbon storage.pdf
Can carbon markets
boost nature-based solutions to cl
TNC scientist
rebrands himself to boost awareness of peatlands.pdf
Future Cities Strategy
and Planning Deloitte Australia Our services and solutions Infrastructure & Capital Projects.pdf
Smarter Planning for
Rural Communities Planetizen Blogs.pdf
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/personal-finance/articles/4-signs-that-a-housing-market-crash-is-
coming/
4 Signs That a
Housing Market Crash Is Coming.pdf
Summary:
Lumber production in Canada is still down 10% since Sept/19 and about 25% since Oct/15
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 20218. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings
have been planted.
1. Lumber costs - https://www.barchart.com/story/news/7787110/lumber-prices-remain-volatile-
but-could-consolidate
2. Softwood lumber -
https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/Lawmakers_echo_NAHB_concerns_on_rising_lumber_pric
es_tariffs_102856/
3. Housing costs - https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0329
4. Interest rates - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/housing-market-disappointed-205214493.html
5. Cement - https://worldtimetodays.com/the-government-sets-co2-limits-for-concrete-for-
federal-projects/
6. 3D housing - https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-luxury-350-square-foot-3d-printed-tiny-
home-austin-2022-3#tiny-homes-may-be-well-small-compared-to-the-typical-home-but-the-
market-for-downsized-living-is-almost-as-hot-as-that-of-the-housing-market-1
7. Forestry - https://www.todayville.com/12-facts-showing-canada-world-class-forestry-sector/
8. Wildfire mitigation - https://www.whistler.ca/media/news/critical-wildfire-prevention-work-
continue-spring