Blog – What is next for the Forestry Sector – July 2023 U.S. sawmills in March produced 3.392 billion board ft. (bbf) of softwood lumber, a decrease of 2.3% from March 2022, but up 20.2% compared with February 2023’s 2.823 bbf, according to the Western Wood Products Assn.’s Lumber Track report for March, dated June 7. Western U.S. sawmills in March contributed 1.209 bbf to the total, down 11.9% from the prior year’s 1.372 bbf, while output from Southern sawmills rose 4.4% year-over-year to 2.031 bbf from 1.946 bbf. Compared with February, Western and Southern sawmill production increased 20.7% and 19.9%, respectively. Apparent U.S. softwood lumber consumption in March was 4.573 bbf, down 4.4% from 4.785 bbf in March 2022 but 17.5% higher than 3.893 bbf in February. Source - https://www.farmprogress.com/business/u-s-lumber-prices-seen-extending-losses-as-sawmills-ramp-up or https://www.scrapmonster.com/news/us-sawmills-produce-less-softwood-lumber-in-march/1/88163 Additional sources and links: Lumber prices - https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/Canadian_lumber_production_down_6_1_in_April_108551/ Lumber prices - https://hardlines.ca/gp_dailynews/lumber-prices-climb-in-june/ Housing starts - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/labour-shortage-in-construction-adding-extra-pressure-to-housing-supply-gap-experts-1.1941272 ESG - https://www.rayonier.com/stories/how-forestry-companies-prove-theyre-sustainable/ Home renovations outlook - https://home.barclays/news/press-releases/2023/07/homeowners-put-off-energy-efficiency-upgrades-due-to-misconcepti/ Technology - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/metsa-group-collectivecrunch-unveil-ai-solution-for-forest-health-monitoring/

1. What is happening to
World’s forest?
Paul Young CPA CGA
SME Data and AI
July 7, 2023

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – ESG Policy Development and
Reporting
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. Agenda
• Commodity Prices
• Global Housing Market
outlook
• Housing Starts – North
America
• Merchandise Trade
• Wages / Forestry Sector
• Employment
• Issues facing Forestry
• Justin Trudeau and the
Forestry Sector
• Technology and Forestry Sector
• West Fraser and Forestry
• Carbon Sink
• Government Cutbacks and
Global deforestation
Poor urban planning
Eco-Terrorism
Automation / Forestry Management
Siberia
Forest Fires
California / Fires
3D Housing
What’s next

4. Commodity Prices
Source https://us.spindices.com/indices/commodities/sp-gsci

5. Housing vs Lumber Costs

6. Housing vs Lumber Costs

7. Global Housing Outlook
Source -
https://www.fool.com/
the-ascent/personal-
finance/articles/4-signs-
that-a-housing-market-
crash-is-coming/
4 Signs That a
Housing Market Crash Is Coming.pdf

8. Merchandise Trade
Source - Stats Canada

9. Forestry Sector (Wages)
Source - https://www.livingin-canada.com/salaries-for-forestry-professionals-canada.html or
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190530/dq190530a-eng.htm
Average wages annually $52,800/year
• Forestry Sector pays between 25% to
70% higher wages than the service
sector
• Forestry sector personal income tax
ranges are between 35% to 40%

10. Forestry Employment
Source - https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/statsprofile/employment/ca

11. Issue facing Forestry
• Softwood Lumber dispute - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/overall-impact-of-softwood-lumber-dispute-minimal-for-
canada-economist~1108540 or https://www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com/canada-has-filed-appeal-against-wtos-april-ruling-in-softwood-
lumber-dispute-with-us/
• Carbon Tax – Carbon tax is added on to the cost of production https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities/video/applying-carbon-tax-
without-cutting-back-regulations-may-be-costly-jack-mintz~1649746
• High stumpage cost - https://www.timescolonist.com/business/teal-jones-shuts-down-logging-in-honeymoon-bay-citing-high-log-costs-
1.23841024
• Hydro Rates - https://www.drydennow.com/local/rickford-aims-to-cut-costs-for-forestry-sector
• Regulations - http://www.chamber.ca/media/news-releases/Canada-competiveness-ranking-drops-4-spots-in-2-years/
• Small business tax reforms - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/cfib-concerned-by-potential-tax-hits-to-small-businesses-
in-2019~1560874
• Forestry losses - https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/global-tree-cover-loss-data-2019
• PBO / Tree Fund - https://www.570news.com/2021/01/28/liberals-two-billion-trees-promise-to-cost-2-78-billion-more-than-planned-pbo-
says/
• Biodiversity - Blog – Biodiversity – Protecting Wildlife from Traffic and Human through Fending and other Measures – Municipal and Local Government - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-
055632b_when-covid-rules-kept-humans-home-wildlife-activity-7081633458157993984-PjIf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

12. Technology / Forestry Sector
Source - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/how-technology-is-transforming-bcs-forest-industry-
5248/
• Investment into new technologies is revolutionizing the way Canada’s forest industry does business.
The federal government reports between 2005 and 2015, Canada’s forest industry cut its total energy use
by 31 per cent and reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 49 per cent by generating bioenergy from
waste products and increasing energy efficiency.
• AI and Forestry - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/ai-can-help-us-map-forests-down-to-
each-tree/
• Automation - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/fully-automated-applying-robotic-solutions-to-the-
sawmill/
• Supply Chain/Digital = https://www.poyry.com/news/articles/how-will-digitalisation-boost-
forestry-operations
• Analytics and Forestry Management - https://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/tag/6399

13. West Fraser Forestry
Source -
https://www.canadian
manufacturing.com/fina
ncing/west-fraser-says-
worst-of-its-b-c-mill-
cuts-done-after-wave-of-
curtailments-236315/

14. Softwood Lumber - History
Source - https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/04/b-c-lumber-
industry-celebrates-nafta-panel-decision-in-trade-dispute-with-us/

15. Carbon Sink

16. De-forestation
https://www.nationalge
ographic.com/environm
ent/global-
warming/deforestation/

17. Eco-Terrorism and other ignition points
There has been a rise in eco-terrorism
• Australia bushfires - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50568026
• BC Wildfires - https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/rcmp-say-arson-behind-29-okanagan-
wildfires-over-last-four-years
• Amazon - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/arsonists-are-torching-the-
amazon-this-elite-team-of-firefighters-stands-in-their-way/2019/10/08/525330f4-d8a8-11e9-a688-
303693fb4b0b_story.html
• California Appl Fire caused by a poorly maintained car -
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/04/apple-fire-at-26450-acres-relief-crews-for-weary-
firefighters-arriving/
• Oregon Fires - https://ktvz.com/news/fire/2020/07/28/three-suspicious-la-pine-area-wildfires-
investigated-as-arson-tips-sought/
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-world-headed-to-more-ecoterrorism

18. Forestry Fires
Fire was purposely set/Eco-Terrorism
San Jose Fire/Cal Fire
Power Lines
Balloon collides with power line that sent sparks to
the ground
• Mitigation
• More insulation of wires - https://energized.edison.com/stories/insulated-wires-help-reduce-wildfire-
risk
• Use of AI and Data Analytics in terms of forest prevention/detection

19. Automation
• Using drones to plant trees - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/06/flash-
forest-and-tree-planting-with-
drones.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed
%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29
• Innovation / planting - https://www.fastcompany.com/90504789/these-drones-
can-plant-40000-trees-in-a-month-by-2028-theyll-have-planted-1-billion
• Tree Planting / Drones -
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/treeplanting-drones-could-help-
restore-world-s-forests-a4116376.html

20. Canada Boreal Forest
• Canada’s boreal forest make up 9% of the world forest -
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/forests-
forestry/how-much-forest-does-canada-have/17601

21. Forest Fires – BC and California
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_blog-forestry-management-and-california-
activity-6703181159909724160-qWzg
I think all levels of government need to take a hard look at how they managed their forest to mitigate
the impacts of wildfires

22. Audits
• Significant financial-control weaknesses / NS Forestry and Land -
https://globalnews.ca/news/6095967/nova-scotia-auditor-general-financial-report/
• Forestry Management / City of Toronto -
https://globalnews.ca/news/5221912/toronto-forestry-crews-audit/
• Audit – Clear Cut and Water Management - https://thenarwhal.ca/muddied-waters-
how-clearcut-logging-is-driving-a-water-crisis-in-b-c-s-interior/
• Tree planning / Corporations - https://www.terracestandard.com/news/skeena-
sawmills-in-terrace-contracts-local-firms-for-2020-reforestation-projects/
• Timber Audits -
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2020.10.0543.html
• Australia - https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/multiple-problems-
with-state-logging-agency-damning-audit-reveals-20201008-p563dj.html

23. California / Fires
Source - https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-09-11/california-wildfires-climate-change-gavin-
newsom-trump
• California has done poor job with management of its forests - With CA ablaze, Newsom blasts Trump admin
for failing to fight climate change Source - https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/14/californias-government-
solely-responsible-for-states-forest-management-and-wildfire-debacle/
It is time to for governments to bring in better forest mgmt. practices
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-economic-management-state-and-local-government-
united-states

24. Blog – Flood, Forest Management, and Land Use
risks from Climate Change
• Warmer air leads to more intense precipitation
• More rain, less snow
• Changing patterns of rain on snow
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-mitigate-geopolitical-risks-as-part-of-safeguarding-
your-assets-249988353 https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/climate-change-is-making-
flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges/ or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/climate-change-and-the-green-economy-canada-october-
2022pptx
I will add lack of audited crisis & emergency plans that mitigate climate change impacts on
infrastructure & property.

25. What’s next
• Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
• Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
• Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
• All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
• More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
• Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
• There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
• 3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
• More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
• There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
Blog – What is next for the Forestry Sector – July 2023
U.S. sawmills in March produced 3.392 billion board ft. (bbf) of softwood lumber, a decrease of
2.3% from March 2022, but up 20.2% compared with February 2023’s 2.823 bbf, according to
the Western Wood Products Assn.’s Lumber Track report for March, dated June 7.
Western U.S. sawmills in March contributed 1.209 bbf to the total, down 11.9% from the prior
year’s 1.372 bbf, while output from Southern sawmills rose 4.4% year-over-year to 2.031 bbf
from 1.946 bbf. Compared with February, Western and Southern sawmill production increased
20.7% and 19.9%, respectively.
Apparent U.S. softwood lumber consumption in March was 4.573 bbf, down 4.4% from 4.785
bbf in March 2022 but 17.5% higher than 3.893 bbf in February.
Source - https://www
.farmprogress.com/business/u-s-lumber-prices-seen-extending-losses-as-sawmills-
ramp-up or https://www
.scrapmonster
.com/news/us-sawmills-produce-less-softwood-lumber-in-
march/1/88163
Additional sources and links:
Lumber prices -
https://www
.lesprom.com/en/news/Canadian_lumber_product
ion_down_6_1_in_April_108551/
Lumber prices - https://hardlines.ca/gp_dailynews/lumber-prices-climb-in-june/
Housing starts - https://www
.bnnbloomberg.ca/labour-shortage-in-construction-adding-extra-pressure-
to-housing-supply-gap-experts-1.1941272
ESG - https://www
.rayonier
.com/stories/how-forestry-companies-prove-theyre-sustainable/
Home renovations outlook - https://home.barclays/news/press-releases/2023/07/homeowners-put-off-
energy-efficiency-upgrades-due-to-misconcepti/
T
echnology - https://www
.woodbusiness.ca/metsa-group-collectivecrunch-unveil-ai-solution-for-forest-
health-monitoring/