1) The Canadian economy grew modestly in the first quarter of 2016, with GDP increasing slightly. However, weak commodity prices impacted key sectors like oil and metals which saw declines. 2) Retail sales remained strong in areas like automotive and home renovations, but were weaker in gas stations and grocery stores. Meanwhile, housing starts increased from the prior year but affordability continues to erode in major cities. 3) The job market saw gains in healthcare and social services but losses in manufacturing, as exports and industry struggled with slow global growth. Wages rose modestly after inflation despite concerns around rising costs of living.

1. Economic Scorecard –
1Q2016 – Canada
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

2. • This presentation is on perspective on Canada economy quarter
ending March 31, 2016

3. Paul Young - Presenter
Bio
• CPA/CGA
• 25 years of experience in Academia, Industry and Financial solutions
• Youtube Channel -
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAArky1bAXPSuV2NLtUnyLg

4. Agenda
• Growth Rates
• GDP
• Commodity Prices
• Manufacturing Sales
• Retail Sales
• Housing Starts
• Employment
• Wages

5. Growth Rates

6. GDP

7. Commodity Prices

8. Manufacturing Sales
Strong sectors
• Transportation
• Automotive
• Bus/Subway Cars
• Forestry
• Lumber
• Food Production
• Dairy
• Bread
• Meat
• Other
• Weak Sectors
• Oil (prices in decline)
• Metals (prices in decline)

9. Retail Sales / Canada
Comments
Strengths
• Automotive
• Home Renovations
Weakness
• Gas Stations
• Grocery Stores (price wars)

10. Housing Market Comments:
• The NHPI increased 2.0% over the 12-
month period ending in March, the
largest year-over-year increase at the
national level since April 2013.
• “House prices are completely
detached from household income
fundamentals. Speculative investor
demand, only partly from foreign cash
buyers, continues to drive house
prices into the stratosphere.”
• Recent data has suggested that
affordability is eroding in Canada,
despite rock-bottom interest rates
that have kept mortgage payments
relatively small, given the level of
house prices.
• Affordability in Toronto has eroded to
the worst level in a quarter century,
and housing is now less affordable for
middle-income earners in Toronto
than it is in New York.

11. Employment / Market
Key Comments
• Retail/Trade sector 19,000 jobs
• Manufacturing loss 50,000
• Healthcare and social gain
43,000 jobs
Outlook
• Exports and Manufacturing
continue to struggle with slow
world wide growth
• Consumer spending is driving
Trade job creation
• Government budget restraint
are forcing job cuts

12. Wages / Growth • Average weekly earnings of non-
farm payroll employees were $960
in March, up 0.5% from the
previous month. Compared with 12
months earlier, average weekly
earnings increased 0.7%.
• If you’re a typical wage-earning
Canadian, your paycheque is losing
ground to the rising cost of living.
Despite all the talk of food price
spikes and rising housing costs,
overall inflation in Canada is tame
right now — prices are up 1.7 per
cent over the past year, according
to StatsCan.

13. Conclusion
• Retail sales will fall back to 1.5 to 2.1%
• Low commodity prices
• Fort McMurray Fire
• Provincial policies
• Cap and Trade (Ontario)
• ORPP (Ontario)
• Other policies
• Federal Government Budget
• Money will flow to infrastructure, Green and Social Housing