Key Macro and Micro indicators| Canada| November 2021 and October 2021

Fiscal and Economic
Scorecard – Canada
– November 2021
and October 2021
Paul Young CPA CGA
December 24, 2021

Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3
Agenda
• Key Metrics
• Employment – Canada
• Trade – Canada
• Manufacturing – Canada
• Housing – Canada
• Cost of Living / Canada
• Electricity
• Fiscal Update / Canada
• Blog – Path Forward – Budget 2021
• Blog – Pharmacare
• Blog – Job Quality
• Blog – Climate change
• Blog – Plastics
• Blog – Wind and Recycling
• Blog – Competitiveness
• Blog – Energy Crisis
• Blog – Electrical Vehicles
• Blog – Critical Metals
• Blog – Monetary Policies
• Blog – Retail Sector
• Blog – Transforming the Public Sector
• Blog – ESG Reporting
• Summary

GDP by Industry
Source – Stats Canada
Blog – GDP by Industry – Canada – October 2021
Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.8% in October, following a 0.2% growth in September, as broad-based increases across sectors contributed to
fifth consecutive monthly expansion.
Both goods-producing (+1.6%) and services-producing (+0.6%) industries were up, with 17 of 20 industrial sectors posting gains in October.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-analysis-and-commentary-october-2021

8
GDP Growth and Deficits
Source – Stats Canada, BMO, and Finance Department –
Canada

Employment / Analysis
Blog – Canada Employment and Labour Market – November 2021
26K are goods-producing jobs
28K are related to wholesale/retail
10K related to the IT area
43K related to healthcare
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-and-labour-market-canada-november-2021

Stats Canada - Trade
Trade - Canada -
October 2021.pdf
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/a
6e1377c-fb7c-4134-b51a-8e5860d95a0f/
Blog – Canada and Merchandise Trade – October 2021 –
Total exports rose 6.4% in October to reach a record $56.2 billion. While
exports increased in 8 of 11 product sections, the combined gains in
exports of motor vehicles and parts and energy products accounted for
almost 80% of the total growth. In real (or volume) terms, total exports
rose 2.8% in October.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-tradecanada-october-2021

11
Manufacturing – Canada –
Manufacturing

Blog – Manufacturing – Canada – October 2021
 Canada' manufacturing sales increased 4.3% month/month in October, after declining 2.8% in September. The picture
was still solid after accounting for price effects, with manufacturing shipment volumes up 3.1% on the month.
 The increase in nominal sales was broad-based, spanning 17 of the 21 industries. It was led by a 61% surge in motor
vehicle sales (which follows a steep, 35.8% decline in September). Sales of primary metals (+4%), chemicals (+3.7%),
plastics and rubber (+5.1%), and petroleum and coal products (+2.4%) were also strong.
 Inventories increased 1.5% on the month, but the inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.63 (from 1.67 in September).
Forward looking indicators were mixed, with new orders up 1.9% and unfilled orders down 0.1%.
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-canada-october-2021-and-november-2021 and
https://economics.td.com/ca-manufacturing-sales

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Housing – Canada
Summary
 Soaring prices, higher mortgage rates walloped affordability in the third quarter: RBC’s aggregate measure for Canada jumped 2.0 percentage points to
47.5%—the worst level in 31 years. It came on the heels of a huge 2.7 percentage increase in the second quarter that completely reversed improvements at
the start of the pandemic.
 Only St. John’s bucked the deteriorating trend: The weight of ownership costs got heavier in all other markets we track for both single-family homes and
condo apartments.
 Affordability remains well within historical norms in the Prairies and parts of Atlantic Canada despite recent erosion: The situation has become more
severe in Ontario, BC and, to a lesser extent, parts of Quebec.
 We expect ownership costs to continue to rise quickly in the period ahead: Home prices re-accelerated amid strong demand and scarce inventories this fall.
And borrowing costs are poised to get more expensive. Fixed mortgage rates have gone up since summer and we expect the Bank of Canada to start hiking
its overnight rate next spring, which would drive variable rates higher. The knock on affordability will be felt across the country.
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/affordable-housing-and-homelessness-canada-and-the-world-250851938 and www.rbc.com
Housing_Affordability
_final.pub.pdf

13
Cost of Living

Bottom Line: The best thing we can say about this report is that the inflation picture has not deteriorated further.
And Canadian inflation is actually now towards the lower end of the G7, with the U.S. at 6.8%, the U.K. printing
5.1% today, and the Euro Area at 4.9%. Still, even with the steady read, the reality is that CPI is running far above
target and at a 30-year high, and even most measures of core are close to, or above, the high end of the BoC's 1-3%
target range. While this release alone may not advance the case for rate hikes, the bigger picture continues to do
so—loudly.
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/368a0261-1e2a-4fcc-bd9b-9ae4e513b13c/ and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/cost-of-living-canadainflation-november-2021

14
Electricity
Blog – Electricity Production – Canada and OECD – September 2021
Canada continues to be a world leader in terms of clean power. Canada generates nearly 82% of its electricity
from clean and renewable resources.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/world-electricity-analysis-and-commentary-september-2021

15
Fiscal Monitor – Canada
There was a budgetary deficit of $3.7 billion in October 2021,
compared to a deficit of $18.5 billion in October 2020. The
budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses and gains was $5.4
billion, compared to a deficit of $17.2 billion in the same period
of 2020–21. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses
and gains is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary
balance and improve the transparency of the government's
financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization
of net actuarial losses and gains arising from the revaluation of
the government's pension and other employee future benefit
plans
Source - https://www.canada.ca/en/department-
finance/services/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/10.html and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-
public-sector-canada-250858856

16
Blog – Stock Market
Blog – Stock Market – WE – December 17, 2021
Stocks fell on Friday to extend Thursday's losses, with equities ending a volatile week in the red as investors
assessed the ongoing risk of the Omicron variant and the Federal Reserve's signals for potentially multiple
interest rate hikes next year.
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-up-with-stock-marklet-december-17-2021 and -
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-17-2021-231504646.html

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Path Forward for Canada
Blog – What is next for Canada
• The new normal means likely changes on how parts of the GDP work including capacity restrictions for
sectors like hospitality, tourism, and entertainment.
• Development of natural resources in sustainable way
• Protecting the environment while growing the economy
• Addressing issues with job quality
• Addressing issues with the cost of living
• Implementing tax fairness policies
• Addressing the delivery model for government including more performance audits and value for money
audits.
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-the-path-forward-for-canada-october-2021

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Commodities
• Canada has some of the best mining practices in the world
• Canada has some of the best sustainable forest management practices in the world
• Canada has some of the toughest water management laws in the world
• Canada has some of the tough farming laws in the world
• Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-canada-should-maximize-the-value-of-its-
natural-resources-in-a-sustainable-way

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Pharmacare
“The federal government is out of excuses: It’s time to get serious about pharmacare”
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/the-federal-government-is-out-of-excuses-its-time-to-get-
serious-about-pharmacare/
The program with this article is there no focus on various government drug programs that need to be
consolidated. There also needs to be focus on a made in Canada solutions related to drug development.
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/biotech-and-pharmaceutical-september-2021

20
Job Quality
The number of job vacancies in the
manufacturing sector reached a new
record high in October, with employers
actively recruiting to fill 91,000 vacant
positions. The job vacancy rate was 5.6%,
the highest monthly rate since comparable
data became available in October 2020.
Payroll employment in the sector
was 1.3% below its pre-COVID level.
Job vacancies in retail trade increased for
the sixth consecutive month to reach a
record high in October (132,800). The job
vacancy rate also peaked at 6.3%, pushed
up by increased vacancies and slow
payroll employment recovery.
Source -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-
quotidien/211223/dq211223b-eng.htm and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/
wages-and-job-vacancies-job-quality-
canada-november-2021

21
Climate Change
Blog – Growing the Circular Economy through better Climate Mitigation Policies
I support better policies that encourage both the private and public sectors to move their operation model to zero-
waste. More work needs to be done on policies related to waste-to-energy (CCA) or abolishing carbon taxation or
streamlining of regulations and taxes or tax credits for environmental work, i.e., tree plant or water management or
other areas of the environment.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-advance-the-circular-economy-through-climate-mitigation-policies

22
Plastics
Plastics play a key role as part of disease mitigation including masks, dividers, storage, etc. The real issue is how
best to recycle the plastics as part diverted waste from waterways and landfill sites.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/plastic-resin-emerges-as-tiniest-example-of-
enduring-covid-19-supply-chain-crunch-273555/
My work: https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-maximized-the-circular-economy-250318403

23
Wind Turbines and Recycling
Blog – Wind Power and Recycling - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_to-end-wind-power-
waste-siemens-gamesa-designs-activity-6848534185544699904-bg01
There needs to be a global strategy on how to recycle the old blades. https://windeurope.org/newsroom/press-
releases/wind-industry-calls-for-europe-wide-ban-on-landfilling-turbine-blades/

24
Competitiveness
@MPJulian and the NDP
Shutdown tax-havens.
Fix the tax act.
Getting more value for money out of program spending
The focus should be on protecting the environment while
growing the economy in a sustainable way.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/tax-fairness-and-
business-competitiveness-analysis

25
Energy Crisis
Australia exported 3-13 million tons per month of coal to China in 2020. If China needs 50 million tons per month that
is rapid increase in coal production. It is unclear in China and Australia would be able to ramp to meet the demand.
China is already in a shortage of perhaps 50 million tons per month.
If there is a rapid surge in coal importing to China, there could be overbidding that causes shortages for other Asian
countries. This will also make the supply chain problems even worse.
Prioritizing heating over electricity means more factory shutdowns.
Prioritizing heating coal imports over other supply chain means that the 200 ships waiting to get unloaded get bumped
back at the ports for hundreds of coal ships.
China having coal production problems is tough because building other sources of electricity and heating will take
years. Especially if China wants to get beyond current levels to support 6% per year GDP growth.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/10/173364.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+bl
ogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29
This ties nicely to my work on energy - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-heading-energy-crisis-paul-young/

26
Electrical Vehicles
Blog - World Largest Plug-in Station provider promises full charge in 15 minutes - Electrical Vehicles
Technology company ABB made an announcement stating it has created the quickest electric vehicle charger. ABB claims that in just under
three minutes, its charger, the Terra 360, can provide a range of 62 miles. Leave the vehicle plugged in for 15 minutes, and it can be fully
charged.
New Atlas reports ABB’s Terra 360 possesses a maximum output of 360 kW. The charger resembles a gasoline pump and has four ports and
16-foot retractable cables that allow it to charge as many as four vehicles at the same time. Although, if four vehicles are charging
simultaneously, the kW decreases to 90.
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/world-s-fastest-ev-charger-promises-full-battery-in-15-minutes/?ecms_id=8afea2aa-cf09-4d8c-996c-
d6af6c50fd63&ecms_short=ART5963&doc_type=ted_video_article&parent_id=4a24fd38-8dd6-4945-8747-
c1c52587a6e5&utm_content=featuredvideo&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_industry_update&campaign_name=tiu
211026&utm_campaign=tiu211026&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_industry_update&tinid=221763045
Additional Links:
eVehicles - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electrical-vehicles-and-plugin-stations-adoption-october-2021
Plug-in stations issues - https://www.wealth-wave.com/wealth-wave/3-ev-speedbumps-3-potential-profits/
Grid limitations - https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/1020/1254828-maxol-20m-investment/
Grid connection issues - https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6224159
Car rentals - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/25/tesla-hertz-ev-deal-signal-to-rental-car-fleets-its-time-for-electric.html

27
Natural Resources / Critical Metals
Blog – Natural Resources Sector – What is next – October 2021
Canada’s natural resources sector is about 11% of its GDP. Canada needs to put a focus on development of its’ natural
resources in a sustainable way as part of support the green and circular economy.
Canada has sizeable reserves in the areas of critical metals - https://mineralprices.com/canada-should-take-the-lead-in-
global-critical-minerals-development-panel/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=canada-should-take-
the-lead-in-global-critical-minerals-development-panel
My work
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-canada-and-worlds-natural-resources-250492008
Key stocks - https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/top-
canadian-rare-earths-stocks/

28
Monetary Policies – BOC
Key Implications
In the latest highly anticipated decision, the Bank of Canada changed up the script. It pulled forward the timing of
when it expected the output gap to close to the middle quarters of next year as it judged that supply disruptions were
weighing more heavily on the economy's productive capacity. So, even as the GDP forecast was revised down in this
MPR, the output gap closed sooner than what the Bank had projected in July.
In terms of our own view, we expect the Bank will raise rates three times next year, taking the overnight rate to 1%
by the end of 2022. Inflation is heating up, and it would be prudent to remove some monetary stimulus as the
economy continues down the road to recovery.
We must acknowledge that there is significant uncertainty around the economic outlook right now. A resurgence of
the pandemic could result in greater stimulus, but if there is a faster-than-expected acceleration in household
spending, the Bank could raise rates at a faster clip. The Bank of Canada is showing that it is nimble and will react
quickly to the evolving economic landscape.
https://economics.td.com/ca-boc-interest-rate-announcement
Additional Links:
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-global-monetary-policies-october-2021

29
Transforming the Retail Sector
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/property-report/article-innovation-driving-transformation-of-retail/
The shift of consumer spending to the digital realm is driving the transformation of physical retail into an immersive,
“phygital” experience, Ms. Nicholls says.
“Omnichannel has been a buzzword in retail for a long time,” says Ashley Barby, founder of Toronto-based, retail-
innovators hub FashionTech, whose report, Store of the Future, was released this month.
As pandemic restrictions continue to ease, customers will expect “a post-omnichannel world – or a channel-less
environment – where everything has merged, and the customer transacts seamlessly within all of them.
Additional links:
Australia – Retail Sales – August 2021 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retai-sales-australia-august-2021
Canada - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-and-consumer-spending-canada-august-2021
USA - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-usa-september-2021

30
Transforming the Public Sector
Blog – How to fix the Governance Model for
the Public Sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/h
ow-to-fix-the-goverance-model-for-the-
public-sector-government-249941842
Source - https://www.auditboard.com/

31
ESG Reporting
Blog - 88 percent of Industrial Businesses Are Now Prioritizing Sustainable Manufacturing - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blog-88-
percent-industrial-businesses-now-paul-young/?published=t
In a strategic move to increase operational efficiency while simultaneously reducing cost, many industrial business leaders have recently been
prioritizing sustainability throughout their facilities. Sustainable manufacturing, which the U.S. Department of Commerce defines as using
industrial processes that minimize negative environmental impacts and are safer for both employees and consumers, has been gaining
momentum lately amid what the United Nations calls the “Decade of Action.”
A recent study from Oxford Economics highlighted that 65% of companies have created a clear mission statement around sustainability, with
another 23% noting that they are in the process of developing such a statement, for a total of 88% of companies prioritizing sustainability.
Similarly, in a recent SAP survey, 46% of industrial business leaders shared that sustainability is top of mind for them throughout the
manufacturing process, and 68% of them have reduced energy consumption at their businesses.
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/88-of-industrial-businesses-are-now-prioritizing-sustainable-manufacturing/?ecms_id=f3a900b0-35f4-
494d-8457-fda636ddd249&ecms_short=ART5960&doc_type=ted_video_article&parent_id=2fd67156-2dae-43a3-82d5-
fdf35ab36f99&utm_content=featuredvideo&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_industry_update&campaign_name=tiu2
11018&utm_campaign=tiu211018&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_industry_update&tinid=221763045
Additional links:
This ties nicely into my work - Clients/Customers are looking at the best way to integrate data into their reporting systems as well as ensuring
they are complying with various regulation filings as part of their GRC models -
Templates: https://ibm.box.com/s/nsbds2s5v8znpwqzc03p9urykbat38w0
Presentation: https://ibm.box.com/s/vmyitcackqevvm1hcxv7wke6gudrpnce

32
Summary
• New normal is hear to stay - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-for-canada-
and-the-world-248752153
• Addressing issues facing the middle class - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-is-the-
middle-class-doing-in-canada
• All levels of government need a new governance model that emphasizes the size of government,
value for money, oversight, transparent, and accountability -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-fix-the-goverance-model-for-the-public-sector-
government
• Addressing issues with the global economy including reforming UN, WHO, WTO, and other areas of
global policies to support a more inclusive economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-may-2021
• Addressing issues with debt - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-issues-global-debt-
crisis-analysis-and-commentary-248282137

Training and Development
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning,
and development then
feel free to review my
material on
https://www.udemy.com
/ (search Paul Young
CPA CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or
systemic issues related
to economy including
government policies

Key Macro and Micro indicators| Canada| November 2021 and October 2021

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