This presentation looks at retail sales for Canada. Retail sales decline in February 2017 after a very strong January. The decline was attributed to lower automotive and gasoline stations sales. FYI - February 2017 would have seen the impact of carbon taxation more as it would have work itself more through the supply chain. Secondly, dealers were providing lots of incentives to people to buy new cars.

1. Canada Retail
Sales fall for
February 2017
Paul Young CPA, CGA
April 26, 2017

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Stats Canada

4. • Retail sales declined
0.6% to $47.8 billion in
February, following a
2.3% increase in January.
Sales were down in 5 of
11 subsectors,
representing 67% of total
retail sales.
• Lower sales at motor
vehicle and parts dealers
and gasoline stations
were the main
contributors to the
declined. Excluding these
two subsectors, retail
sales were up 0.5%.
• After removing the effects
of price changes, retail
sales in volume terms
edged down 0.1%.
Stats Canada

5. ▪ BMO Economics – April 26, 2017
For February GDP, which is due out this Friday
morning, the small dip in retail volumes does
not move the needle. Along with an earlier
report of a 0.4% drop in wholesale trade
volumes, we are sticking to our call of a 0.1%
rise in monthly GDP. Given that this followed a
whopping 0.6% jump in January GDP, growth
for all of Q1 is still nicely on track for an
annualized gain of 3.5% (or better...the BOC
pegged it at 3.8%). Consumer
spending and, yes, housing, played a big part in
that outsized strength.
Douglas Porter – Economist (BMO) –
April 26, 2017

6. Scotiabank - Economics
This is a pretty solid report as the details
and growth tracking implications are
considerably better than the headline
decline in sales during February. Most
of the decline was due to price effects and
not volumes, and sales ex-autos and gas
prices were up a half percentage point in
dollar terms. Thus, while we called the
right side of zero on the headline and
details relative to consensus, the details
were better than the highlights. The initial
indifference in the currency may have
cause to re-think this as the consumer
sector is performing quite well so far this
year.
Derek Holt – Scotiabank – April 26, 2017

7. Risks
▪ Duties on softwood lumber and Dairy
▪ Gas prices have spike up in April 2017
▪ Carbon Tax impact has yet to flow through the supply chain
▪ Changes in tax policies have yet to impact the pocketbooks of consumers