The Buffalo Niagara region continues to undergo significant economic and demographic transitions. Its industry base is shifting toward diverse, knowledge-driven industries, while the region is increasingly leveraging border location and economic synergies with Canada. The region’s population, while shrinking on the whole and older compared to the nation, includes highly educated and mobile workers. Together these forces have important implications for emerging demands for labor, workforce readiness and opportunities for regional economic growth.

1. BUFFALO NIAGARA LABOR MARKET ASSESSMENT 2010 WHO’S YOUR ECONOMY? Sponsored by: Buffalo Niagara Enterprise University at Buffalo Regional Institute

2. CONTEXT AND APPROACH Premise: a regional economy IS its labor market Scope: eight-county Buffalo Niagara Time: six-month effort, 2010 Engagement: Project Advisory Group, consultation Labor market stakeholders, perspectives Regional employers, survey responses Approach: imagined interview with prospective employers

3. IMAGINING THE CEO’S QUESTIONS WHAT IS THE REGIONAL DEMAND FOR LABOR? WHO IS ENTERING AND EXITING THE WORKFORCE? WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR? WHAT ARE WAGES LIKE IN THE REGION? WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION? WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?

4. WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE? The Big Picture

5. WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE? Industry Composition by Total Employment, 2009 Total Jobs = ~660,000 More than ever before, Buffalo Niagara’s economy mirrors that of the nation.

6. WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE? % Total Employment in Manufacturing and Financial/Health/Education/Professional Services, Buffalo Niagara and U.S., 1970 to 2009 % Total Employment in Manufacturing, Buffalo Niagara and U.S., 1970 to 2009 Manufacturing no longer dominates Service jobs now drive the regional economy Regionresemblesthenation,makingitless subjectto “boom and bust” of less diversified economies

7. WHAT IS THE REGIONAL DEMAND FOR LABOR? Pct. change in jobs, 2001-2008 Job growth in health services, professional & business services, leisure and hospitality, education, and financial activities. Job decline in manufacturing,communications& information,andtrade,transportation&utilities.

8. WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR? The Buffalo Niagara labor supply consists of 1.2 million persons age 16+. 37% Roughly two-thirds are employed or seeking employment, constituting a workforce of nearly 800,000. 63%

9. WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR? Age 55+workers are more dominant in the regional workforce relative to U.S. and some metro comparisons. Age 25-34 workers are under-represented in the regional workforce relative to U.S. and some metro comparisons.

10. WHO IS ENTERING AND EXITING THE WORKFORCE? Educational institutions produce a local labor pool of 30,000+ potentialworkers annually. 10,000 workers will retire annually. Withoutnewjobcreation,jobentrants facea tightmarket;givengraddegrees,skilledtrade labormaybe in short supply.

11. WHAT ARE WAGES LIKE IN THE REGION? A stand-alone Wage & Salaryreport offers details. Wages tend to fall below national averages for higher-paying occupations; wages are generally higher for goods-producing jobs.

12. WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION? Estimated Unionized Jobs among the Public and Private Sector inBuffalo Niagara Region, 2009 Within sectors,the17% private sector union rate compares to 78% forpublic sector workers. Across the public and private sectors, roughly192,000,or29%,ofthe region’s job are unionized.

13. WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION? % Union Membership Among Private Sector Workers in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls Metropolitan Area, 1986-2009 While still above national levels, private sector unionization is declining in the metro area. 26% 17%

14. SNAPSHOT OF BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES Roughly, a 40% share of the economy Employment as a share of total economy in Buffalo Niagara, ranked by industry, 2009 Tourism Advanced Manufacturing Green Back Office Logistics LifeSciences Agribusiness

15. SNAPSHOT OF BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES For each target industry, the report provides… Numberof firms Numberofemployees Topten occupations Wagerange Workforceby degrees Workforcepreparedness

16. BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES Where are the firms and how large are they? Firms… Advanced Mfg firms… Tourism firms… …by size of firm Green firms… Size of firm, by # of employees… …and bydegreeof concentration HIGH LOW Life Sciences firms… Logistics firms… BackOffice firms… Agribusiness firms…

17. COUNTY COMPARISONS Overview For each county, the report provides… Numberof firms Numberofjobs Numberinlaborforce %employmentinpublicsector Avg.privatesectorwage Educational attainment Commutingpatterns Topfields of study for county-basedhighereducation

18. COUNTY COMPARISONS Job Concentration Erie has highest ratio –at 5 jobs to every 10 people Genesee, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus have 4 jobs for every 10 people Niagara, Wyoming, Orleans and Allegany have 3

19. COUNTY COMPARISONS Public SectorEmployment In general, counties with smaller populations and fewer job opportunities tend to rely more heavily on the public sector for jobs

20. PROSPECTS FOR THE BUFFALO NIAGARA LABOR MARKET Projected Job Gains or Losses to 2016, By Industry… Projections through 2016 by the NYS Dept of Labor show a continued shift away from manufacturing to growth in service professions, led by health services. …per year The shift toward knowledge-based jobs may signal opportunities to retain college-educated job force entrants.

21. PROSPECTS FOR THE BUFFALO NIAGARA LABOR MARKET Continued population aging; workers age 55+ grow faster than nationally What else might we expect? … Projected 20,000 retirees per year beginning in 2020, highest in health services, education and manufacturing Educated workforce entrants will remain ample To keep educated youth, knowledge-based sectors must grow

22. BUFFALO NIAGARA LABOR MARKET ASSESSMENT 2010 WHO’S YOUR ECONOMY? Sponsored by: Buffalo Niagara Enterprise University at Buffalo Regional Institute