The 2014 Simon Poll:
Voter Opinions on Term Limits in Illinois
Charlie Leonard, Visiting Professor
Union League Club of Ch...
2014 Simon Poll
• 1,001 Live interviews, registered voters
• 20-min. interview; Proportional across Illinois
• Conducted F...
Widely and Consistently Popular
• No matter how you phrase the question
• No matter what group you ask
• Support consisten...
Eight-Year Term Limits
Legislative Term Limit Time Series
Leadership Term Limits
Leadership Term Limit Time Series
Strong Support in Every Subgroup
The Ones You Might Expect
• Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6%
• Private secto...
Strong Support in Every Subgroup
The Ones You Might Expect
• Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6%
• Private secto...
Strong Support in Every Subgroup
The Ones You Might Expect
• Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6%
• Private secto...
Arguments in favor of Term Limits
Term limits make elected officials more responsive
• 71% Agree; 24% Disagree
Arguments in favor of Term Limits
Term limits make elected officials more responsive
• 71% Agree; 24% Disagree
Term limits...
Arguments against Term Limits
Term limits don’t give elected officials enough time
to develop expertise
• 28% Agree; 68% D...
Arguments against Term Limits
Term limits don’t give elected officials enough time
to develop expertise
• 28% Agree; 68% D...
What’s Behind the High Support?
Frustration with Government
• 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track”
What’s Behind the High Support?
Frustration with Government
• 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track”
• 89%: State corruptio...
What’s Behind the High Support?
Frustration with Government
• 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track”
• 89%: State corruptio...
What’s Behind the High Support?
Frustration with Government
• 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track”
• 89%: State corruptio...
What’s Behind the High Support?
Frustration with Government
• 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track”
• 89%: State corruptio...
Would It Pass If It Made the Ballot?
Faster than free ice cream.
Would It Pass If It Made the Ballot?
Faster than free ice cream.
• Questions?
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The 2014 Simon Poll - Voter Opinions on Term Limits in Illinois

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Dr. Charles Leonard
Paul Simon Public Policy Institute

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The 2014 Simon Poll - Voter Opinions on Term Limits in Illinois

  1. 1. The 2014 Simon Poll: Voter Opinions on Term Limits in Illinois Charlie Leonard, Visiting Professor Union League Club of Chicago April 7, 2014
  2. 2. 2014 Simon Poll • 1,001 Live interviews, registered voters • 20-min. interview; Proportional across Illinois • Conducted Feb. 12 – 25; 30% Cell phones • Margin for error ± 3.5 percentage points • Phoning: Customer Research International - San Marcos, Texas - No Illinois political clients - Paid with Institute endowment
  3. 3. Widely and Consistently Popular • No matter how you phrase the question • No matter what group you ask • Support consistent over time
  4. 4. Eight-Year Term Limits
  5. 5. Legislative Term Limit Time Series
  6. 6. Leadership Term Limits
  7. 7. Leadership Term Limit Time Series
  8. 8. Strong Support in Every Subgroup The Ones You Might Expect • Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6% • Private sector – 80.7% • Conservatives - 83.4%
  9. 9. Strong Support in Every Subgroup The Ones You Might Expect • Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6% • Private sector – 80.7% • Conservatives - 83.4% The Ones You Might Not • Democrats – 74.0% • Chicago – 73.3% • Public sector – 79.7% • Liberals – 76.0%
  10. 10. Strong Support in Every Subgroup The Ones You Might Expect • Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6% • Private sector – 80.7% • Conservatives - 83.4% The Ones You Might Not • Democrats – 74.0% • Chicago – 73.3% • Public sector – 79.7% • Liberals – 76.0% Opposition Highest Among • Blacks – 26.7% • Democrats – 22.6% • Chicago – 21.5% • Liberals – 20.0%
  11. 11. Arguments in favor of Term Limits Term limits make elected officials more responsive • 71% Agree; 24% Disagree
  12. 12. Arguments in favor of Term Limits Term limits make elected officials more responsive • 71% Agree; 24% Disagree Term limits bring new people with fresh ideas • 83% Agree; 14% Disagree
  13. 13. Arguments against Term Limits Term limits don’t give elected officials enough time to develop expertise • 28% Agree; 68% Disagree
  14. 14. Arguments against Term Limits Term limits don’t give elected officials enough time to develop expertise • 28% Agree; 68% Disagree Term limits give more power to lobbyists and unelected staff • 35% Agree; 55% Disagree
  15. 15. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track”
  16. 16. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track” • 89%: State corruption very/somewhat common
  17. 17. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track” • 89%: State corruption very/somewhat common • 61%: State corruption impacts people’s lives
  18. 18. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track” • 89%: State corruption very/somewhat common • 61%: State corruption impacts people’s lives • 58%: Illinois more corrupt than other states* * 2012 Simon Poll
  19. 19. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track” • 89%: State corruption very/somewhat common • 61%: State corruption impacts people’s lives • 58%: Illinois more corrupt than other states* • 28%: Trust state gov’t to do what’s right** * 2012 Simon Poll ** Gallup Poll 2014
  20. 20. Would It Pass If It Made the Ballot? Faster than free ice cream.
  21. 21. Would It Pass If It Made the Ballot? Faster than free ice cream. • Questions?

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