6. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Engine Trouble?
6
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15
Manufacturing Slowdown
Values Indexed to Dec '07 = 100
Source: Census, Federal Reserve, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Industrial Production
Manufacturers'
New Orders for
Nondefense Capital
Goods ex Aircraft
7. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Localized Engine Trouble?
7
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15
Initial U.I. Claims
Seasonally Adjusted, Index 2000 = 100
N. Dakota
+ Texas
All Other States
Weekly claims data converted to monthly, then seasonally adjusted. Data through April 2015.
Source: U.S. Dept of Labor, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
8. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Consumer: MIA or Waiting?
8
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Disposable
Income
Energy
Expenditures
Savings Health Care Housing Food &
Accom.
Finance &
Insurance
Other
Household Budget Where the Money Goes
The Oil Math
Change In Household Finances 2014q3 to Jan-Feb '15, $billions
Source: BEA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
+$329 billion (SAAR)
37% of
Total
19% 10% 8% 6% 21%
10. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Not Back to Full Employment, Yet
10
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2005 2010 2015 2020
Oregon's Total Employment Gap
FTE Relative to Full Employment
Unemployment Gap Participation Gap Undemployment Gap
Source: BLS, CBO, Census, Dartmouth, IMF, OED, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Forecast -->
2007q1
1.1%
2009q3
8.7%
2015q1
4.4%
13. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Regional Growth Improving
13
Multnomah
Washington
Salem MSA
Lane
Clackamas
Jackson
Deschutes
Linn
Benton
Douglas
Yamhill
Umatilla
Josephine
Coos
Klamath
Lincoln
Clatsop
Malheur
Hood River
Columbia Union
Wasco
Tillamook
Jefferson
Curry
Crook
Baker
Morrow
Wallowa
Grant
Lake
Harney
Sherman
Gilliam
Wheeler
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
ShareofLostJobsRegainedbyFeb2015
Great Recession Job Losses
Oregon Employment by County
All Regained
2 in 3 or More
About Half
1 in 3 Regained
1 in 5 or Less
15. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Bubble Watch: One of These Things
Is Not Like the Others
15
16. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Drought Concerns
• Loss of crops and income
• Increased costs for
irrigation & feed
• Suppliers impacted
• Wildfire, hydro
• 2014 California Impact
UC-Davis Study
• 2.2% revenue loss
• 3.8% ag employment loss
• Losses concentrated more
in grains, feed and other
crops (not fruits/nuts)
and cattle/calves not
dairies
16
Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu
17. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Regional Economies Can Suffer
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06
Oregon and the "Tech" Recession
Employment, Seasonally-Adjusted 3 Month Average
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Portland
Rest of State
Klamath
18. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
“Dollar Isn’t Strong.
Everyone Else is Weak.”
18
22. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Big April but No Surprise
22
$0.0
$0.1
$0.2
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.6
$0.7
$0.8
$0.9
$1.0
$1.1
January February March April May June
Billions
Big Year-End Tax Payments, As Expected
Oregon Cumulative Personal Income Tax Payments
Forecast
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
March 1
+3.5%
April 15
+14.5%
April 1
+11.8%
May 1
+20.9%
May 13
+21.3%
23. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2013-15 Forecast Evolution
23
$14.2
$14.3
$14.4
$14.5
$14.6
$14.7
$14.8
$14.9
$15.0
$15.1
Dec '10 May '15
Billions
Forecast Release
2013-15 BN Personal Kicker
<--2% Kicker Threshold
Special Session
$87 million
<--COS Forecast
$182.2 million
24. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2015-17 Decomposing Changes
24
2015-17 Resources
Change Relative to Mar ’15 Forecast
Beginning Balance
Kicker
Kicker Offsets
GF Forecast Changes
Lottery Changes
Net Change
+$156 million
-$121 million
+21 million
+$364 million
+$43 million
+$463 million
Kicker Totals (Est.)
2013-15 -$450m
2015-17 -$23m
2017-19 -$3m
Total -$473m
25. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
What Is Your Cut?
25
* Based on 2013 actual tax returns
** Based on 2013 actual tax returns, PIT kicker amount ($473 million) and the
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ forecast for tax liability
Income
Group
Adjusted Gross
Income*
Rough Estimate
of Kicker Size**
Bottom 20% < $10,200 $11
Second 20% $10,200 - $23,800 $63
Middle 20% $23,800 - $43,800 $146
Fourth 20% $43,800 - $79,900 $274
Next 15% $79,900 - $157,100 $546
Next 4% $157,100 - $336,400 $1,249
Top 1% > $336,400 $5,373
Average $53,900 $284
Median $30-35,000 $144
26. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Personal Income Tax Collections
26
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Personal Income Tax Collections, % change year ago, 12 month sum
33. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
3333
Biennial Revenue Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Personal Income Taxes Total General Fund
34. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
34
For More Information
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