CSIRO Energy Flagship

1. Future Grid Forum
CSIRO Energy Flagship
Mark Paterson
ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAMEENERGY FLAGSHIP

2. An unprecedented transformation...
“The world’s electricity network will
change more in the next 20-years
than it has in the last 100”
IBM Energy & Utilities, ‘Smart Infrastructure – Building the Intelligent Grid of Tomorrow’, Enercom Conference (March 2009).
Australia's Electricity Futures (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

3. Social
Licence
Enabling
Technology
RegulationEconomics
New
Business
Models Electricity
Ecosystem
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

4. Australia’s Future Grid Forum
Industry-led
Whole-of-system
Long-term orientation to 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

5. Participants
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Generators
TNSPs
DNSPs
Government
& Regulators
Energy
Retailers
End-users,
NGOs &
Others
Suppliers /
Business
ACOSS
AMIRA
CEC
CEFC
EEC
Grattan Institute
Smart Grid Aust
The Climate Institute
Total Environment Ctr
University of Sydney
Stanwell Corporation
Hydro Tasmania
ESAA
GE
Alstom
AmpControl
Ernst & Young
Landis+Gyr
Siemens
Stockland
DRET
AER
AEMC
AEMO
ARENA
BREE
State Govt: Qld, SA & Vic
Aust Local Govt Assoc
Grid Australia:
Electranet
SP Ausnet
Powerlink
Transend
Transgrid
Western Power
Ausgrid
Aurora Energy
Citipower
Energex
Ergon Energy
SA Power Ntwks
Western Power
ERAA
AGL
Origin Energy

6. Four 2050 scenarios
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Set and forget Leaving the grid
Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive

7. Scenario 1: Set and forget
• Closest to a linear path of evolution
from the present
• Generation:
o 30% from renewable sources
o 19% from distributed sources
• Modest uptake of energy storage
and electric vehicles
• Widespread adoption of ‘set and
forget’ demand management
solutions offered by networks
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

8. Scenario 2: Rise of the prosumer
• Extensive transition to distributed
energy networks
• Generation:
o 41% from renewable sources
o 46% from distributed sources
• Modest uptake of energy storage and
electric vehicles
• Majority see value proposition of
remaining grid-connected
• Networks now ‘transact’ electrons
between thousands of sites
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

9. Scenario 3: Leaving the grid
• Extensive transition toward user
autonomy underpinned by distributed
generation and storage
• Generation:
o 64% from renewable sources
o 31% from distributed sources
• Moderate uptake of electric vehicles
• ~30% are not convinced of grid value
proposition and have entirely
disconnected by 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

10. Scenario 4: Renewables thrive
• Extensive transition to centralised
renewables
• Generation:
o 86% from renewable sources
o 26% from distributed sources
• Centralised generation primarily from
renewable sources + large-scale
storage
• System is supported by extensive
uptake of electric vehicles and
modest uptake of DG and DS
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

11. Projected on-site generation share
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

12. Grid-supplied electricity consumption
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

13. Projected network utilisation
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

14. Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

15. 2015-25 Decade of Transition
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

16. Seven observations about nature of this
profound transition...
1. Network-centric → Customer-centric
2. Centralised → Decentralised/Hybrid
3. Fossil fuel generation → Continuous decarbonisation
4. Regulated natural monopoly → Increasing exposure to
competition
5. 20 – 50% of electricity generated locally by 2050
6. Grid continues to play a critical (but evolved) role in 2050
7. Current decision-making processes risk being outpaced in the
2015-25 decade en route to 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

17. Eight ‘must haves’...
1. Treat the community as adults and partners
on a journey to a new place
2. New models for accelerated decision-making
and industry adaptation
3. New tools for network forecasting in a highly-
distributed future
4. Ubiquitous ‘taming’ of peak demand spikes is
critical for network optimisation
5. Cost-reflective pricing of electricity + enabling
technologies ( ‘transactive’ network)
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

18. Eight ‘must haves’...
6. National review of the social safety net parallel
to tariff reforms
7. ‘Re-invention’ of NSP business models – need
to decide what you are going to be!
8. Further regulatory reform where necessary to
enable new NSP business models
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

19. The Future Grid
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

20. CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship
Mark Paterson
Energy Flagship
t 0459 841 006
e mark.paterson@csiro.au
w www.csiro.au/energy
ENERGY TRANSFORMED FLAGSHIP
Thank you