Copy of my presentation to the ILGISA Spring Conference, 2012, in Champaign, IL. The study looks at 10 years of homicide data in Chicago to look for temporal trends.

1. Noah Sager
Graduate Student
Department of Geography
Chicago State University
19 April 2012
Champaign, Illinois
ILGISA Spring Conference

2.  Crime Time
 Summer – (Block 1984, Field 1992, Hipp et. al. 2004)
 Winter - (Koppen & Jansen 1999)
 Lunar - (Biermann et. al. 2009)
 Menstruation - (Dalton 1961)
 Crime Place
 Gentrification - (Papachristos et. al. 2011)
 Hotspots - (Block & Block 1995, Ratcliffe 2004)

3.  Crime Studies Don’t Pay
 Temporal Specificity/Generalizations
 Crime Specificity
 Precision: the Missing Link
 Different Temporal Specificity
 Crime Generalizations

4.  All Crimes – One Year
 Data too large
 Conclusions too weak

5.  All Crimes – One Year
 Data too large
 Conclusions too weak
 All Homicides – Ten Years
 Total/Monthly/Daily
 Time Animation (ArcGIS)
 One-way ANOVA (SPSS)

6.  All Crimes – One Year
 Data too large
 Conclusions too weak
 All Homicides – Ten Years
 Total/Monthly/Daily
 One-way ANOVA (SPSS)
 Time Animation (ArcGIS)

7. Total Crimes January = 31.1
311
Average
31.1
Rank
11th

8. Total Crimes January = 31.1
256 February = 25.6
Average
25.6
Rank
12th

9. Total Crimes January = 31.1
370 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average
37.0
Rank
10th

10. Total Crimes January = 31.1
431 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
43.1
Rank
7th

11. Total Crimes January = 31.1
441 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
44.1 May = 44.1
Rank
6th

12. Total Crimes January = 31.1
567 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
56.7 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank
2nd

13. Total Crimes January = 31.1
597 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
59.7 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
1st

14. Total Crimes January = 31.1
521 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
52.1 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
3rd August = 52.1

15. Total Crimes January = 31.1
489 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
48.9 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
4th August = 52.1
September = 48.9

16. Total Crimes January = 31.1
458 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
45.8 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
5th August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8

17. Total Crimes January = 31.1
397 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
39.7 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
8th August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
November = 39.7

18. Total Crimes January = 31.1
380 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
38.0 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
9th August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0

19. January = 31.1
February = 25.6
March = 37.0
April = 43.1
May = 44.1
June = 56.7
July = 59.7
August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0

20. 30 Days January = 31.1
September February = 25.6
April March = 37.0
November April = 43.1
June May = 44.1
June = 56.7
28.2 Days July = 59.7
February August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0

21. Daily Average Monthly Average
January = 1.00 January = 31.1
February = 0.91 February = 25.6
March = 1.19 March = 37.0
April = 1.44 April = 43.1
May = 1.42 May = 44.1
June = 1.89 June = 56.7
July = 1.93 July = 59.7
August = 1.68 August = 52.1
September = 1.63 September = 48.9
October = 1.48 October = 45.8
November = 1.32 November = 39.7
December = 1.23 December = 38.0

22.  All Crimes – One Year
 Data too large
 Conclusions too weak
 All Homicides – Ten Years
 Total/Monthly/Daily
 One-way ANOVA (SPSS)
 Time Animation (ArcGIS)

23. Homicides (Average 2001-2010)
70
60
50
Homicides
40
Homicides (Average 2001-2010)
30
20
10
0
Months

24.  January < June, July, August, September
 February < April, May, June, July, August, September, October
 March < July
 April > February (and) < July
 May > February
 June > January, February
 July > January, February, March, April, November, December
 August > January, February
 September > January, February
 October > February
 November < July
 December < July
Significant: p < 0.05

25.  All Crimes – One Year
 Data too large
 Conclusions too weak
 All Homicides – Ten Years
 Total/Monthly/Daily
 One-way ANOVA (SPSS)
 Time Animation (ArcGIS)

27.  Criminal Intent
 High and Low months/seasons
 Significant differences
 Future Studies
 Expansion of crime types, crime times
 Increased analysis
 Framework for GIS Applications

28.  More Crime, More Better
 Homicide, Arson, Gambling
▪ Assault, Burglary, Robbery
 More Time, More Better
 Crime by Days
▪ Individual days, weekday days v. weekend days
 Crime by Time
▪ Four 6 hour periods, individual hours

29. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349

30. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344

31. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324

32. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257

33. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229

34. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178

35. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160

36. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86

37. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114

38. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134

39. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121

40. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

41. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

42. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117z

43. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

44. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

45. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

46. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178 5pm-6pm: 175
6am-7am: 160
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

47. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178 5pm-6pm: 175
6am-7am: 160 6pm-7pm: 242
7am-8am: 86
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

48. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178 5pm-6pm: 175
6am-7am: 160 6pm-7pm: 242
7am-8am: 86 7pm-8pm: 181
8am-9am: 114
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

49. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178 5pm-6pm: 175
6am-7am: 160 6pm-7pm: 242
7am-8am: 86 7pm-8pm: 181
8am-9am: 114 8pm-9pm: 237
9am-10am: 134
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

50. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178 5pm-6pm: 175
6am-7am: 160 6pm-7pm: 242
7am-8am: 86 7pm-8pm: 181
8am-9am: 114 8pm-9pm: 237
9am-10am: 134 9pm-10pm: 283
10am-11am: 121
11am-12pm: 117

51. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178 5pm-6pm: 175
6am-7am: 160 6pm-7pm: 242
7am-8am: 86 7pm-8pm: 181
8am-9am: 114 8pm-9pm: 237
9am-10am: 134 9pm-10pm: 283
10am-11am: 121 10pm-11pm: 290
11am-12pm: 117

52. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178 5pm-6pm: 175
6am-7am: 160 6pm-7pm: 242
7am-8am: 86 7pm-8pm: 181
8am-9am: 114 8pm-9pm: 237
9am-10am: 134 9pm-10pm: 283
10am-11am: 121 10pm-11pm: 290
11am-12pm: 117 11pm-12am: 323

53. Hourly Total Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349 12pm-1pm: 138
1am-2am: 344 1pm-2pm: 134
2am-3am: 324 2pm-3pm: 163
3am-4am: 257 3pm-4pm: 165
4am-5am: 229 4pm-5pm: 195
5am-6am: 178 5pm-6pm: 175
6am-7am: 160 6pm-7pm: 242
7am-8am: 86 7pm-8pm: 181
8am-9am: 114 8pm-9pm: 237
9am-10am: 134 9pm-10pm: 283
10am-11am: 121 10pm-11pm: 290
11am-12pm: 117 11pm-12am: 323

54. Noah Sager
Graduate Student
Department of Geography
Chicago State University
nsager@csu.edu
www.noahsager.net
Thank You!
Questions?
19 April 2012
Champaign, Illinois
ILGISA Spring Conference