The third in the "Senate Races to Watch" series by political expert and campaign veteran Nathan Sproul, the founder and managing director of Lincoln Strategy Group. Nathan Sproul and his team at Lincoln Strategy Group have effectively lobbied all levels of government leadership to create a real impact. Their staff includes a former Congressional Chief of Staff, former legislative aides, and a former corporate lobbyist. Nathan Sproul's experience offers the necessary access to create change. http://nathansproul.com/

1. OHIO
S E N A T E R A C E T O W A T C H
A Presentation by Nathan Sproul

2. AS FAR AS RACES TO
WATCH FOR SEATS IN
THE SENATE GO, OHIO
MAY WIND UP FALLING
MORE ON THE SIDE OF AN
“INTERESTING” CONTEST
THAN A “CLOSE” ONE.

3. Even as long as a year
ago, the race between
Ohio incumbent
Republican senator Rob
Portman and Democratic
nominee Ted Strickland
looked as though it would
be one of the closer
contests of 2016. For
months, polling numbers
lept back and forth
between the two
candidates, some showing
Strickland leading
Portman by as many as
nine points.
DATING
BACK QUITE
SOME
TIME AGO...

4. Portman began to pull away from Strickland, increasing his
lead from five points to eight or nine, where it hovered until
a late-August Emerson college poll showed the incumbent
with a somewhat comfortable 15 point lead. Real Clear
Politics currently cites the average lead that Portman holds
is roughly 7.5 points–a margin that allows Portman to
approach the election with confidence.
THEN,
ROUGHLY ONE
MONTH AGO...

5. As 24 of the 34 Class III seats up for election feature Republican incumbents. A loss in those races could
pull the current 54-44 Republican senate lead into a much closer race.
Strickland has held a few small advantages over Portman, at least at the moment. At the beginning of
the race, despite not having served in office in about six years, Strickland held a degree of name
recognition over Portman according to The Atlantic. He also brought a wealth of experience to the race,
having served six terms in the House.
Portman, however, has more than enough political experience to make up for Strickland’s years in the
House. Between 1993 and 2005, Portman too served in the House of Representatives before working as
the 13th US Trade Representative, then the Director of Office Management and Budget under President
George W. Bush.
D E S P I T E T H E S E E M I N G L Y C O M F O R T A B L E L E A D ,
H O W E V E R , S O M E A R E S T I L L C A L L I N G F O R A
F A I R L Y C L O S E R A C E , A N D R E M A I N S A C E R T A I N
B A T T L E G R O U N D S T A T E F O R T H E E L E C T I O N ,
M A K I N G T H E R A C E A L L T H E M O R E I M P O R T A N T
F O R T H E G O P .

6. DESPITE EARLY PREDICTIONS OF A
RIGHT RACE EARLY IN THE POLITICAL
SEASON, THE INCUMBENT PORTMAN
HAS MADE UP GROUND ON
STRICKLAND SUBSTANTIALLY AND
SEEMS PRIMED TO RETAIN THE SENATE
SEAT HE’S HELD SINCE 2011 COME
NOVEMBER 8.
T H E R A C E
A H E A D

7. NATHANSP
ROUL.COM