ATBI Mapping Program: Where Do All These Species Live? – Tanner Jessel The ATBI not only focuses on scientific research and education, but also on conservation stewardship of the national park. One of the most valuable conservation questions it is answering is: Where do the thousands of species that call the Smokies "home" actually live? To date the ATBI not only has dot maps for almost all the species, but for those with enough (>30) point locations our partners at the University of Tennessee can produce "predictive models" of where they occur over the entire 800+ square mile park... an Atlas of Species!
ATBI Mapping Program: Species Distribution Models for Great Smoky Mountains National Park
1. Species Distribution Models for Great
Smoky Mountains N.P.
Tanner Jessel
School of Information Sciences
The University of Tennessee
ATBI Mapping Program
2. • Discover Life in America (DLIA)
• National Park Service (NPS)
• The University of Tennessee (UTK)
– College of Engineering, Dept. of Electrical
Engineering and Computer Science (EECS)
• National Institute for Mathematical and
Biological Synthesis (NIMBios)
Collaboration
9. Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Predictive Modelling
Predictive model of Fraser Fir (Abies fraseri)
10. Environmental Variables
• Continuous
– Digital Elevation
Model
– Solar radiation
– Topographic
convergence index
• Categorical
– Bedrock geology
– Soil organic type
– Slope in degrees
– Terrain shape index
– Leaf on canopy cover
– Understory density
– Vegetation classes
11. Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Digital Elevation Model
What comes to mind when you think of Fraser fir? What’s your “mental model” of where it lives?
274,120 results
274,120 results
274,120 results
That’s rad.
Steep, vertical drops
Bedrock geology
soils
Essentially, streams
Effect of landforms on tree height
Vegetation class.
Where’s the rhododendron?
Leaf on, leaf off.
88.8% contribution from the digital elevation model. Who’d have guessed?
2158 localities contributing to model.
941 localities contributing to model.
“the oaks are one of the very important genera of trees in the park, susceptible to gypsy moth and more recently Sudden Oak death, should either invade our region” Keith Langdon, Park Biolgist, retired
Sudden oak death. http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/futures/reports/draft/images/Chapter%2016-5.gif; http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/morgantown/4557/gmoth/spread/nosts.jpg
Red Oak
Fire ants on a quail egg. Photo by Brad Dabbert,labelled CC-BYhttp://bugmugs.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/quail4_dabbert.jpg, Wildfire in Smokies: Photo: Joe Strickland.
“the Wood warblers are neo-tropical migrants who have undergone declines as a group, monitoring is underway internationally, but now we are starting to understand where they occur in GRSM” –Keith Langdon, NPS
“Anoplophora is the Asian long-horned beetle, which has recently invaded North America, mostly in cities to our north, I used literature to assess the most preferred tree species of this voracious pest, and then overlaid them in the park. These areas would perhaps be the best place to monitor for their initial invasion in our area.” – Keith Langdon, Retired Park Biologist
Data quality will continue to change.
My other computer is a supercomputer. “Running MaxEnt for 500 species on a PC implementation of MaxEnt has been estimated to take about 90 hours (human or “wall-clock” time). Research reported in 2012 demonstrated the MaxEnt Java program can be deployed on a single-system-image supercomputer to decrease processing time for MaxEnt runs. Parallel processing translated to 25 minutes of “wall-clock time” on the supercomputer to make the runs.”