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The 5 Rules of Forecasting: Data-Driven Consumer Trends
- 1. THE 5 RULES OF FORECASTING
- 2. 2 FORECASTING WITHOUT SIZING THE PRIZE IS POINTLESS You predict the future to make more money.
- 3. 3 Instant delivery NOW 2025 VR usage Live video streaming Voice commands Smart homes WE SIZE AND PREDICT OVER 60 CONSUMER BEHAVIOURS ACROSS 24 GLOBAL MARKETS
- 4. 4 FORECASTING IS ONLY USEFUL IF YOU KNOW WHO IT IS FOR
- 5. 5 Who are the early adopters? Which markets will lead? WHO IS THIS FUTURE IMPACTING?
- 6. 6 DATA WITHOUT EMPATHY IS USELESS You have to understand the motivation behind the action.
- 7. 7Source: Foresight Factory Base: 3929 online respondents aged 16+ , USA, 2017 August “I would be willing to spend money to save time” UNCOVER THE PERSONALITY THAT MOTIVATES BEHAVIOUR Impatient 25-34 year olds who are mass-affluent Total US 11% Agree strongly 42% 34% Agree 45%
- 8. 8 TRENDS MAKE THE FUTURE MAKE SENSE Context is everything
- 9. 9 TRENDS NOT FADS Don’t be misled by short term spikes without underlying motivation.
- 10. 10 A TREND IS AN EVIDENCE BASED SHIFT IN HOW WE THINK, FEEL OR LIVE
- 11. 11 THINK MECHANISED TRUTH EVERY CLAIM MUST BE PROVEN. SUPPLY CHAIN = BLOCKCHAIN FEEL FINE TO BE FALLIBLE CELEBRATE MISTAKES LIVE WAR ON WASTE PEAK PLASTIC?
- 12. 12 ACCEPT THAT THE FUTURE IS MESSY Tease the truth from consumer contradictions.
- 13. 13 60% agree both that companies should minimise CSR activities (and focus on price and service) and that companies should be punished for a lack of green credentials. 56% Millennials think companies should prioritise employing humans over robots even if it means higher prices 39% Millennials always buy the cheapest products BUT... 67% 32% Only post about the positive aspects of life on social media. BUT... Openly admit to my failings
- 14. LET’S TALK. Let us show how we add value. We’re happy to open up our world of data and trends. Putting what we do best to work for you. 81 Alie Street, Whitechapel, London, E1 8NH info@foresightfactory.co | +44 (0)20 3096 6380
Editor's Notes
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- Foresight Factory define a trend as an evidence based shift in how we think, feel or live. So data leads to trends. Trends help us understand consumers, their motivations. They also help us predict what they will do next.
- THIS IS SO UGLY.
- The future is messy - tease the truth from the complexity and contradictions inherent in everyday life We uncover contradictions all the time: 60% agree both that companies should minimise CSR and focus on price and service AND that companies should be penalised if they are not green and sustainable. Competing and conflicting desires all the time. Fear about robotisation and a belief that robots should be employed over humans, even if it means higher prices - contradicts with a desire to reap the benefits (and cost reductions) of robotisation. Those who say they always buy the cheapest product available. Fears about robots and Ai competing with humans makes us want to distinguish ourselves further from them. What makes us uniquely human? We make mistakes. This is what we cover in our trend Fine to be Fallible. 67% say they openly admit their failings. But even here there are contradictions. Because online, 32% say they only ever post about the positive aspects of life. Not so open there. Effortlessly Ethical crosstab: Source: nVision Research | Base: 4894 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2016 February Human over robot: Source: Foresight Factory │ Base: 4057 online respondents aged 16+ , GB, 2017 August Always buy the cheapest: Source: FFonline Research | Base: 1000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2016 October Open failings: Source: FFonline Research | Base: 1000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2016 October Only post positive: Source: FFonline Research | Base: 1000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2016 October