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Only cite from the given article
you have to complete the following reading:
Lou Moore, Engineering principles at Code for America. In
Medium (Code For America Blog), July, 2017. Available at:
https://medium.com/code-for-america/engineering-principles-at-
code-for-america-bda7b99740de
and submit to Canvas, before class starts, short answers to the
following questions (no more than 200 words per question):
1.What is Code for America?
2.What is your general opinion about the set of principles listed
in this reading?
3.Give an example of a principle from this reading that is
similar to a principle from the https://www.acm.org/code-of-
ethics.
The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets
Fourth Edition
Chapter 12
Financial Crises
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Rights Reserved.
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Preview (1 of 2)
This chapter makes use of agency theory, the economic analysis
of the effects of asymmetric information (adverse selection and
moral hazard) on financial markets, to see why financial crises
occur and why they have such devastating effects on the
economy.
It then applies our analysis to explain the course of events that
led to a number of past financial crises, including the most
recent global financial crisis.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Learning Objectives
12.1 Define the term “financial crisis.”
12.2 Identify the key features of the three stages of a financial
crisis.
12.3 Describe the causes and consequences of the global
financial crisis of 2007-2009.
12.4 Summarize the changes to financial regulation that
developed in response to the global financial crisis of 2007-
2009.
12.5 Identify the gaps in current financial regulation and how
they might be addressed with future regulatory changes.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
What is a Financial Crisis?
A financial crisis occurs when there is a particularly large
disruption to information flows in financial markets, with the
result that financial frictions increase sharply and financial
markets stop functioning.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Dynamics of Financial Crises
Stage One: Initiation of a Financial Crisis
Credit Boom and Bust: Mismanagement of financial
liberalization/innovation leading to asset price boom and bust
Asset-price Boom and Bust
Increase in Uncertainty
Stage two: Banking Crisis
Stage three: Debt Deflation
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Figure 1 Sequence of Events in Financial Crises in Advanced
Economies
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Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Mother of All Financial Crises: The Great Depression
How did a financial crisis unfold during the Great Depression
and how it led to the worst economic downturn in U.S. history?
This event was brought on by:
Stock market crash
Bank panics
Continuing decline in stock prices
Debt deflation
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Figure 2 Stock Price Data During the Great Depression Period
Source: Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Global Financial
Data:
http://www.globalfinancialdata.com/index_tabs.php?action=deta
iledinfo&id=1165.
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Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Figure 3 Credit Spreads During the Great Depression
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (1 of 8)
Causes of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis:
Financial innovations emerge in the mortgage markets
Subprime mortgage
Mortgage-backed securities
Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)
Housing price bubble forms
Increase in liquidity from cash flows surging to the United
States
Development of subprime mortgage market fueled housing
demand and housing prices
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (2 of 8)
Agency problems arise
“Originate-to-distribute” model is subject to principal-
(investor) agent (mortgage broker) problem
Borrowers had little incentive to disclose information about
their ability to pay
Commercial and investment banks (as well as rating agencies)
had weak incentives to assess the quality of securities
Information problems surface
Housing price bubble bursts
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
FYI Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) (1 of 2)
The creation of a collateralized debt obligation involves a
corporate entity called a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that
buys a collection of assets such as corporate bonds and loans,
commercial real estate bonds, and mortgage-backed securities.
The SPV separates the payment streams (cash flows) from these
assets into buckets that are referred to as tranches.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
FYI Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) (2 of 2)
The highest rated tranches, referred to as super senior tranches
are the ones that are paid off first and so have the least risk.
The lowest tranche of the CDO is the equity tranche and this is
the first set of cash flows that are not paid out if the underlying
assets go into default and stop making payments. This tranche
has the highest risk and is often not traded.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (3 of 8)
Effects of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis
After a sustained boom, housing prices began a long decline
beginning in 2006.
The decline in housing prices contributed to a rise in defaults
on mortgages and a deterioration in the balance sheet of
financial institutions.
This development in turn caused a run on the shadow banking
system.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (4 of 8)
Crisis spreads globally
Sign of the globalization of financial markets
TED spread (3 months interest rate on Eurodollar minus 3
months Treasury bills interest rate) increased from 40 basis
points to almost 240 in August 2007.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (5 of 8)
Deterioration of financial institutions’ balance sheets:
Write downs
Sell of assets and credit restriction
High-profile firms fail
Bear Stearns (March 2008)
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (July 2008)
Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Reserve Primary Fund
(mutual fund) and Washington Mutual (September 2008)
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (6 of 8)
Bailout package debated
House of Representatives voted down the $700 billion bailout
package on September 29, 2008.
It passed on October 3, 2008.
Congress approved a $787 billion economic stimulus plan on
February 13, 2009.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Figure 4 Housing Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009
Source: Case-Shiller U.S. National Composite House Price
Index from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Figure 5 Stock Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009
Source: Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Global Financial
Data:
http://www.globalfinancialdata.com/index_tabs.php?action=deta
iledinfo&id=1165.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Inside the Fed: Was the Fed to Blame for the Housing Price
Bubble? (1 of 2)
Some economists have argued that the low rate interest policies
of the Federal Reserve in the 2003–2006 period caused the
housing price bubble.
Taylor argues that the low federal funds rate led to low
mortgage rates that stimulated housing demand and encouraged
the issuance of subprime mortgages, both of which led to rising
housing prices and a bubble.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Inside the Fed: Was the Fed to Blame for the Housing Price
Bubble? (2 of 2)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke countered this
argument, saying the culprits were the proliferation of new
mortgage products that lowered mortgage payments, a
relaxation of lending standards that brought more buyers into
the housing market, and capital inflows from emerging market
countries.
The debate over whether monetary policy was to blame for the
housing price bubble continues to this day.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Global: The European Sovereign Debt Crisis
The increase in budget deficits that followed the financial crash
of 2007-2009 led to fears of government defaults and a surge in
interest rates.
The sovereign debt debt, which began in Greece, moved on to
Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy.
The stresses created by this and related events continue to
threaten the viability of the Euro.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (7 of 8)
Height of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis
The stock market crash gathered pace in the fall of 2008, with
the week beginning October 6, 2008, showing the worst weekly
decline in U.S. history.
Surging interest rates faced by borrowers led to sharp declines
in consumer spending and investment.
The unemployment rate shot up, going over the 10% level in
late 2009 in the midst of the “Great Recession, the worst
economic contraction in the United States since World War II.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Figure 6 Credit Spreads and the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (8 of 8)
Government Intervention and the Recovery
Due to government and central bank intervention, the Great
Recession was far smaller in magnitude than the Great
Depression.
The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the most important
provision of the Bush administrations’ Emergency Economic
Stabilization Act passed in October 2008, authorized the
Treasury to spend $700 billion purchasing subprime mortgage
assets from troubled financial institutions or to inject capital
into these institutions.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Response of Financial Regulation
Macroprudential versus microprudential supervision
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
of 2010
Consumer protection
Resolution authority
Systemic risk regulation
Volcker Rule
Derivatives
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Too-Big-To-Fail and Future Regulation
Three approaches to solving the too-big-to-fail problem have
been suggested:
Break up large financial institutions
Higher capital requirements
Leave it to Dodd-Frank
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Rights Reserved.
Other Issues for Future Regulation
Compensation in the financial sector
Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)
Credit-rating Agencies
The danger of overregulation
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Web Chapter 1: Financial Crises in Emerging Market
Economies
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Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Preview (2 of 2)
This chapter applies the asymmetric information theory of
financial crises to investigate the cause of frequent and
devastating financial crises in emerging market economies
This analysis is then applied to the events surrounding the
financial crises that took place in South Korea and Argentina in
recent years and explore why these events caused such
devastating contractions of economic activity.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Dynamics of Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies (1
of 4)
Stage one: Initial Phase
Path A: Credit Boom and Bust
Weak supervision and lack of expertise leads to a lending boom.
Domestic banks borrow from foreign banks.
Fixed exchange rates give a sense of lower risk.
Banks play a more important role in emerging market
economies, since securities markets are not well developed yet.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Dynamics of Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies (2
of 4)
Stage one: Initial Phase
Path B: Severe Fiscal Imbalances
Governments in need of funds sometimes force banks to buy
government debt.
When government debt loses value, banks lose and their net
worth decreases.
Additional factors:
Increase in interest rates (from abroad)
Asset price decrease
Uncertainty linked to unstable political systems
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Dynamics of Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies (3
of 4)
Stage two: Currency Crisis
Deterioration of bank balance sheets triggers currency crises:
Government cannot raise interest rates (doing so forces banks
into insolvency)…
… and speculators expect a devaluation.
Severe fiscal imbalances triggers currency crises:
Foreign and domestic investors sell the domestic currency.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Dynamics of Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies (4
of 4)
Stage three: Full-Fledged Financial Crisis
The debt burden in terms of domestic currency increases (net
worth decreases).
Increase in expected and actual inflation reduces firms’ cash
flow.
Banks are more likely to fail:
Individuals are less able to pay off their debts (value of assets
fall).
Debt denominated in foreign currency increases (value of
liabilities increase).
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Figure 7 Sequence of Events in Emerging Market Financial
Crises
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Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Application: Crisis in South Korea, 1997-98 (1 of 2)
Financial liberalization and globalization mismanaged
Perversion of the financial liberalization and globalization
process: chaebols and the South Korean crisis
Stock market decline and failure of firms increase uncertainty
Adverse selection and moral hazard problems worsen, and the
economy contracts
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Rights Reserved.
Application: Crisis in South Korea, 1997-98 (2 of 2)
Currency crisis ensues
Final stage: currency crisis triggers full-fledged financial crisis
Recovery commences
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Rights Reserved.
Application: The Argentine Financial Crisis, 2001-2002
Severe fiscal imbalances
Adverse selection and moral hazard problems worsen
Bank panic begins
Currency crisis ensues
Currency crisis triggers full-fledged financial crisis
Recovery begins
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Global: When an Advanced Economy Is Like an Emerging
Market Economy: The Icelandic Financial Crisis of 2008
The financial crisis and economic contraction in Iceland that
started in 2008 followed the script of a financial crisis in an
emerging market economy, even though Iceland is a wealthy
nation.
Financial liberalization led to rising stock market values and
currency mismatch.
Foreign capital fled the country as a severe recession
developed.
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Preventing emerging market financial crises
Beef up prudential regulation and supervision of banks
Encourage disclosure and market-based discipline
Limit currency mismatch
Sequence financial liberalization
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.
Copyright
Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
Rights Reserved.

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Only cite from the given article you have to complete the follow.docx

  • 1. Only cite from the given article you have to complete the following reading: Lou Moore, Engineering principles at Code for America. In Medium (Code For America Blog), July, 2017. Available at: https://medium.com/code-for-america/engineering-principles-at- code-for-america-bda7b99740de and submit to Canvas, before class starts, short answers to the following questions (no more than 200 words per question): 1.What is Code for America? 2.What is your general opinion about the set of principles listed in this reading? 3.Give an example of a principle from this reading that is similar to a principle from the https://www.acm.org/code-of- ethics. The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets Fourth Edition Chapter 12 Financial Crises Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. If this PowerPoint presentation contains mathematical equations, you may need to check that your computer has the following installed:
  • 2. 1) MathType Plugin 2) Math Player (free versions available) 3) NVDA Reader (free versions available) 1 Preview (1 of 2) This chapter makes use of agency theory, the economic analysis of the effects of asymmetric information (adverse selection and moral hazard) on financial markets, to see why financial crises occur and why they have such devastating effects on the economy. It then applies our analysis to explain the course of events that led to a number of past financial crises, including the most recent global financial crisis. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Learning Objectives 12.1 Define the term “financial crisis.” 12.2 Identify the key features of the three stages of a financial crisis. 12.3 Describe the causes and consequences of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. 12.4 Summarize the changes to financial regulation that developed in response to the global financial crisis of 2007- 2009. 12.5 Identify the gaps in current financial regulation and how they might be addressed with future regulatory changes. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. What is a Financial Crisis? A financial crisis occurs when there is a particularly large disruption to information flows in financial markets, with the
  • 3. result that financial frictions increase sharply and financial markets stop functioning. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Dynamics of Financial Crises Stage One: Initiation of a Financial Crisis Credit Boom and Bust: Mismanagement of financial liberalization/innovation leading to asset price boom and bust Asset-price Boom and Bust Increase in Uncertainty Stage two: Banking Crisis Stage three: Debt Deflation Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figure 1 Sequence of Events in Financial Crises in Advanced Economies Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Mother of All Financial Crises: The Great Depression How did a financial crisis unfold during the Great Depression and how it led to the worst economic downturn in U.S. history? This event was brought on by: Stock market crash Bank panics Continuing decline in stock prices Debt deflation
  • 4. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figure 2 Stock Price Data During the Great Depression Period Source: Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Global Financial Data: http://www.globalfinancialdata.com/index_tabs.php?action=deta iledinfo&id=1165. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figure 3 Credit Spreads During the Great Depression Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (1 of 8) Causes of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: Financial innovations emerge in the mortgage markets Subprime mortgage Mortgage-backed securities Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) Housing price bubble forms Increase in liquidity from cash flows surging to the United States Development of subprime mortgage market fueled housing demand and housing prices
  • 5. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (2 of 8) Agency problems arise “Originate-to-distribute” model is subject to principal- (investor) agent (mortgage broker) problem Borrowers had little incentive to disclose information about their ability to pay Commercial and investment banks (as well as rating agencies) had weak incentives to assess the quality of securities Information problems surface Housing price bubble bursts Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. FYI Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) (1 of 2) The creation of a collateralized debt obligation involves a corporate entity called a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that buys a collection of assets such as corporate bonds and loans, commercial real estate bonds, and mortgage-backed securities. The SPV separates the payment streams (cash flows) from these assets into buckets that are referred to as tranches. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. FYI Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) (2 of 2) The highest rated tranches, referred to as super senior tranches are the ones that are paid off first and so have the least risk. The lowest tranche of the CDO is the equity tranche and this is the first set of cash flows that are not paid out if the underlying assets go into default and stop making payments. This tranche has the highest risk and is often not traded.
  • 6. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (3 of 8) Effects of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis After a sustained boom, housing prices began a long decline beginning in 2006. The decline in housing prices contributed to a rise in defaults on mortgages and a deterioration in the balance sheet of financial institutions. This development in turn caused a run on the shadow banking system. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (4 of 8) Crisis spreads globally Sign of the globalization of financial markets TED spread (3 months interest rate on Eurodollar minus 3 months Treasury bills interest rate) increased from 40 basis points to almost 240 in August 2007. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (5 of 8) Deterioration of financial institutions’ balance sheets: Write downs Sell of assets and credit restriction High-profile firms fail Bear Stearns (March 2008) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (July 2008) Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Reserve Primary Fund (mutual fund) and Washington Mutual (September 2008)
  • 7. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (6 of 8) Bailout package debated House of Representatives voted down the $700 billion bailout package on September 29, 2008. It passed on October 3, 2008. Congress approved a $787 billion economic stimulus plan on February 13, 2009. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figure 4 Housing Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 Source: Case-Shiller U.S. National Composite House Price Index from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figure 5 Stock Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 Source: Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Global Financial Data: http://www.globalfinancialdata.com/index_tabs.php?action=deta iledinfo&id=1165. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
  • 8. Rights Reserved. Inside the Fed: Was the Fed to Blame for the Housing Price Bubble? (1 of 2) Some economists have argued that the low rate interest policies of the Federal Reserve in the 2003–2006 period caused the housing price bubble. Taylor argues that the low federal funds rate led to low mortgage rates that stimulated housing demand and encouraged the issuance of subprime mortgages, both of which led to rising housing prices and a bubble. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Inside the Fed: Was the Fed to Blame for the Housing Price Bubble? (2 of 2) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke countered this argument, saying the culprits were the proliferation of new mortgage products that lowered mortgage payments, a relaxation of lending standards that brought more buyers into the housing market, and capital inflows from emerging market countries. The debate over whether monetary policy was to blame for the housing price bubble continues to this day. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Global: The European Sovereign Debt Crisis The increase in budget deficits that followed the financial crash of 2007-2009 led to fears of government defaults and a surge in interest rates. The sovereign debt debt, which began in Greece, moved on to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. The stresses created by this and related events continue to
  • 9. threaten the viability of the Euro. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (7 of 8) Height of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis The stock market crash gathered pace in the fall of 2008, with the week beginning October 6, 2008, showing the worst weekly decline in U.S. history. Surging interest rates faced by borrowers led to sharp declines in consumer spending and investment. The unemployment rate shot up, going over the 10% level in late 2009 in the midst of the “Great Recession, the worst economic contraction in the United States since World War II. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figure 6 Credit Spreads and the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (8 of 8) Government Intervention and the Recovery Due to government and central bank intervention, the Great Recession was far smaller in magnitude than the Great Depression. The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the most important provision of the Bush administrations’ Emergency Economic
  • 10. Stabilization Act passed in October 2008, authorized the Treasury to spend $700 billion purchasing subprime mortgage assets from troubled financial institutions or to inject capital into these institutions. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Response of Financial Regulation Macroprudential versus microprudential supervision Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 Consumer protection Resolution authority Systemic risk regulation Volcker Rule Derivatives Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Too-Big-To-Fail and Future Regulation Three approaches to solving the too-big-to-fail problem have been suggested: Break up large financial institutions Higher capital requirements Leave it to Dodd-Frank Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Other Issues for Future Regulation Compensation in the financial sector Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Credit-rating Agencies The danger of overregulation
  • 11. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Web Chapter 1: Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Preview (2 of 2) This chapter applies the asymmetric information theory of financial crises to investigate the cause of frequent and devastating financial crises in emerging market economies This analysis is then applied to the events surrounding the financial crises that took place in South Korea and Argentina in recent years and explore why these events caused such devastating contractions of economic activity. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Dynamics of Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies (1 of 4) Stage one: Initial Phase Path A: Credit Boom and Bust Weak supervision and lack of expertise leads to a lending boom. Domestic banks borrow from foreign banks. Fixed exchange rates give a sense of lower risk. Banks play a more important role in emerging market economies, since securities markets are not well developed yet. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All
  • 12. Rights Reserved. Dynamics of Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies (2 of 4) Stage one: Initial Phase Path B: Severe Fiscal Imbalances Governments in need of funds sometimes force banks to buy government debt. When government debt loses value, banks lose and their net worth decreases. Additional factors: Increase in interest rates (from abroad) Asset price decrease Uncertainty linked to unstable political systems Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Dynamics of Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies (3 of 4) Stage two: Currency Crisis Deterioration of bank balance sheets triggers currency crises: Government cannot raise interest rates (doing so forces banks into insolvency)… … and speculators expect a devaluation. Severe fiscal imbalances triggers currency crises: Foreign and domestic investors sell the domestic currency. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Dynamics of Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies (4 of 4) Stage three: Full-Fledged Financial Crisis The debt burden in terms of domestic currency increases (net worth decreases).
  • 13. Increase in expected and actual inflation reduces firms’ cash flow. Banks are more likely to fail: Individuals are less able to pay off their debts (value of assets fall). Debt denominated in foreign currency increases (value of liabilities increase). Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figure 7 Sequence of Events in Emerging Market Financial Crises Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Application: Crisis in South Korea, 1997-98 (1 of 2) Financial liberalization and globalization mismanaged Perversion of the financial liberalization and globalization process: chaebols and the South Korean crisis Stock market decline and failure of firms increase uncertainty Adverse selection and moral hazard problems worsen, and the economy contracts Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Application: Crisis in South Korea, 1997-98 (2 of 2) Currency crisis ensues Final stage: currency crisis triggers full-fledged financial crisis Recovery commences
  • 14. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Application: The Argentine Financial Crisis, 2001-2002 Severe fiscal imbalances Adverse selection and moral hazard problems worsen Bank panic begins Currency crisis ensues Currency crisis triggers full-fledged financial crisis Recovery begins Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Global: When an Advanced Economy Is Like an Emerging Market Economy: The Icelandic Financial Crisis of 2008 The financial crisis and economic contraction in Iceland that started in 2008 followed the script of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy, even though Iceland is a wealthy nation. Financial liberalization led to rising stock market values and currency mismatch. Foreign capital fled the country as a severe recession developed. Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Preventing emerging market financial crises Beef up prudential regulation and supervision of banks Encourage disclosure and market-based discipline Limit currency mismatch Sequence financial liberalization Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 15. Copyright Copyright © 2016, 2013, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.