Shipping cycle explanation

1. FACULTAD DE ESPECIALIDADES EMPRESARIALES
INGENIERÍA EN COMERCIOY FINANZAS
INTERNACIONALES
Logistica II
TITLE: Shipping Cycles
Grade 10
Vanessa Quille - Jefferson Franco

2. Shipping cycles are far more complex tan a sequence of cyclical moves in the
freight rate. kirkaldy 1914. considered the shipping cycle as a consequence of the
market mechanism. The market cycles créate the business enviroment in which
weak shipping companies are forced to leave and strong shipping companies
survive and prosper.

3. The shipping cycle is an economic concept that explains how shipping
companies and freight charges respond to supply and demand. It examines
how and why ships build up in sea trading ports. The cycle also seeks to explain
what affects the selling price of ship fleets and what types of ships sell during
slow business periods. The four stages of the shipping cycle, all based on
customer demand, are trough, recovery, peak and collapse.

4. THE FOUR STAGES OFTHE SHIPPING CYCLE
Trough
• The first stage of the shipping cycle is called a trough.
• Ships begin to accumulate at trading ports, while others
slow down shipments by delaying their arrivals at full
ports. Ships still carrying goods also slow down to save
on fuel costs. In a trough, freight costs tend to start
falling. Freight costs will typically decrease to the
equivalent of vessel operating costs. Shipping companies
start to experience a negative cash flow, which prompts
the selling of inefficient fleet. Selling prices for ships tend
to be lower, with some fleet exchanged at salvage rates.

5. Recovery
• Recovery is the second stage of the shipping
cycle. In this stage, supply and demand move
toward equilibrium, meaning both supply and
demand levels match each other closely.
Freight charges begin to increase, eventually
surpassing operating costs. Shipping
containers begin to move out of the trading
ports, as demand stimulates new orders.
During this stage, optimism about the market
remains shaky.The opinion pendulum swings
back and forth between optimism and
pessimism, resulting in volatility for trade
volume. Cash flow tends to improve steadily
during the recovery stage.

6. Peak
• The shipping cycle's third stage is a peak or plateau. At this point,
the shipping freight rates become quite high --- often double or
triple the amount of fleet operating costs.The levels of supply and
demand are almost completely equal. Quite a bit of market
pressure occurs between supply and demand levels, which could
cause the peak to fall at any time. Most of the shipping fleet is in
operation, with only the most inefficient ships left to idle in trading
ports. Cash flow for shipping companies is quite high.

7. Collapse
• The fourth stage of the shipping cycle, collapse, occurs
when supply levels begin to exceed demand. Freight rates
begin to decline during a collapse. Shipping containers
and fleet begin to accumulate in trading ports once again.
Although the cash flow of shipping companies may
remain at high levels, ships begin to slow down their
operations.They may take longer to deliver goods, and
inefficient fleets may not ship goods for some time.

8. LEMON
PORT
Puerto Limon is a port city that at
one time was a vibrant shipping port
for the banana trade that flourishes
around Puerto Limon. Abandoned,
for the most part for the port of Moin
some 10K to the north of Puerto
Limon, the city fell victim to a savage
earthquake in 1991

9. IS PUERTO LIMONA REAL LIMON?
• In the late 1850s, Puerto Limon
became more important as a port. It
was opened to foreign trade in the
late 1860s. In 1890, it was linked to
Costa Rica’s capital, San Jose, by
railroad passing through difficult
terrain. A banana industry grew up
around the tracks, giving Costa Rica a
cash cargo, and the United Fruit
Company was dominant through the
first decades of the 20th Century

10. •A comparative analysis of the inefficient Puerto Limon in Costa Rica and the efficient port of
Cartagena in Colombia, illustrating the influence of port efficiency on the costs of maritime
transport and the damaging impact this has upon trade.
The conclusions reveal that Central America's high freight rates cannot be solely attributed to
low cargo volumes, as is sometimes claimed; port inefficiencies are also a culprit in that they
exert a significant influence in terms of additional fuel costs, as well as the number of ships
which carriers deploy, through overly long loading and discharging times.
These all serve to undermine Costa Rica's terms of trade and, in the long run, have a negative
effect on the nation's trade, economy and consumer welfare. While the difficulties in doing so
are acknowledged, the authors propose that inducing competition, particularly port
privatization, is the way towards port reform that will advance Central American nations, such as
Costa Rica, whose economies are suffering as a result of an inefficient port sector

11. RESOURCES
• http://marinepedia.blogspot.com/2009/09/shipping-market-cycles.html
• http://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/history-of-containerization
• http://www.puertolimon.net/
• https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1118972