Analysis of enrollment trends in Massachusetts public colleges and universities, comparing the early estimates of fall 2012 enrollment with historic data. Presented to the Massachusetts Board of Higher Education on October 16, 2012.

1. Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 16, 2012
Highlights:
2012 Early Enrollment Estimates

2. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
System Trend Compared to WICHE
High School Graduation Estimates
MA High School Graduates vs.
MA Public Higher Ed First-Time and All Undergraduate Students
• Undergraduate enrollment continues to climb, though first-time student enrollment is slowly
dropping along with declines in the estimated high school graduation cohorts.

3. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Segment Summary of
Undergraduate Enrollment
• New enrollment highs
Undergraduate Headcount
across all segments, but
growth is not as dramatic
as in recent years. Change
Fall 2012 from Percent
Estimate Fall 2011 Change
• Growth at the four-year
institutions is similar to Community
100,866 424 0.4%
Colleges
national trends (1.1%).
State
42,127 495 1.2%
• Community college University
growth runs counter to 957
UMass 53,943 1.8%
the national trend, where
enrollment declined 2.2% System 196,936 1,876 1%
from fall 2010 to fall 2011.

4. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Campus Highlights: Fall ‘11 to Fall ‘12
Increases in Undergrad. Headcount
 The campuses with the greatest fall-to-fall increases in
undergraduate enrollment were :
▪ Framingham State University 6.2%
▪ University of Massachusetts Lowell 5.0%
▪ Fitchburg State University 4.3%
▪ Bunker Hill Community College 4.0%
▪ Northern Essex Community College 3.9%
• UMass Lowell and Bunker Hill had the highest enrollment increases in their segments for
at least the past three years. Framingham State had the highest enrollment increases over
the past two years.

5. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Segment Summary of
Undergraduate Enrollment
Fall-to-Fall Trend in Undergraduate Headcount Growth
+
+
+
+
+
+
• Every year has brought growth in the state universities and UMass. Community colleges
have only had one year without growth.
• However, amount of growth has varied.
• The start of the recession and large high school graduating classes inspired impressive
year-to-year growth rates from fall 2007 to fall 2009. Growth has moderated since then.

6. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Fall Enrollment
Long-Term Trend at a Glance
26%
21%
19%
• Slower growth in recent years should not cloud the tremendous 23% growth in
undergraduate enrollment over the last ten years.

7. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Implications of Enrollment Trends
 What does the slowing growth in enrollment imply?
• Meeting the degree production goals of the Vision Project will rely
heavily on graduating more students already in the system.
• However, increases in graduation rates alone are unlikely to enable us
the fully achieve the Vision Project goals.
• In order to effectively boost enrollments in the coming years,
we will need to recruit larger cohorts of non-traditional students
or students from frequently underserved populations, e.g.:
• Latino Students
• Older Students

8. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Latino Students
Projected Changes in Massachusetts High School Graduates
2011 to 2022
Total Latino
Projected Change in High
-9% +37%
School Graduates
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door
College-Going Rate of Massachusetts Public High School Graduates
White Latino
Percent of 2009 High school
Graduates Enrolling in 72% 51%
College in Fall 2009
Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, National
Student Clearinghouse

9. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Older Students
Growth in New Student Undergraduate Enrollment by Age
Fall 2008 to Fall 2011
Under 25 25 and over
Community Colleges 7% 23%
State Universities 6% 7%
University of Massachusetts 4% 20%
System 6% 21%
Note: “New” means entered institution for the first time as a freshman, transfer,
readmitted or non-degree-seeking student.
• Approximately 25% of our new students were 25 or older in 2011, which likely reflects the
increasing economic pressure to obtain a college degree.

10. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Older Students
 Adults with high school diplomas and the labor market.
• According to the Center for Education and Workforce (Georgetown):
During the recession, the unemployment rate for high school
graduates rose to 13.4% and remains at 9.4%.
• During the post-recession recovery, people with high school
diplomas or less continued to lose jobs (-230,000) whereas those
with some college education or higher gained jobs (1.6–2 million)
 Massachusetts public higher education is the education
gateway for working-age adults.
• In fall 2011, 74% of undergraduate students age 25 and over enrolled
in higher education in Massachusetts were enrolled in Massachusetts
public higher education.

11. Questions
Jonathan Keller: jkeller@bhe.mass.edu or (617) 994-6941