Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 16, 2012Highlights:2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesSystem Trend Compared to WICHE High School Graduation Estimates                           M...
2012 Early Enrollment Estimates    Segment Summary of     Undergraduate Enrollment•   New enrollment highs                ...
2012 Early Enrollment Estimates    Campus Highlights: Fall ‘11 to Fall ‘12     Increases in Undergrad. Headcount    The c...
2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesSegment Summary of Undergraduate Enrollment                 Fall-to-Fall Trend in Undergrad...
2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesFall Enrollment Long-Term Trend at a Glance                                                ...
2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesImplications of Enrollment Trends   What does the slowing growth in enrollment imply?    •...
2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesLatino Students     Projected Changes in Massachusetts High School Graduates               ...
2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesOlder Students              Growth in New Student Undergraduate Enrollment by Age          ...
2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesOlder Students   Adults with high school diplomas and the labor market.    • According to ...
QuestionsJonathan Keller: jkeller@bhe.mass.edu or (617) 994-6941
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Fall 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates

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Analysis of enrollment trends in Massachusetts public colleges and universities, comparing the early estimates of fall 2012 enrollment with historic data. Presented to the Massachusetts Board of Higher Education on October 16, 2012.

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Fall 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates

  1. 1. Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 16, 2012Highlights:2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
  2. 2. 2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesSystem Trend Compared to WICHE High School Graduation Estimates MA High School Graduates vs. MA Public Higher Ed First-Time and All Undergraduate Students • Undergraduate enrollment continues to climb, though first-time student enrollment is slowly dropping along with declines in the estimated high school graduation cohorts.
  3. 3. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates Segment Summary of Undergraduate Enrollment• New enrollment highs Undergraduate Headcount across all segments, but growth is not as dramatic as in recent years. Change Fall 2012 from Percent Estimate Fall 2011 Change• Growth at the four-year institutions is similar to Community 100,866 424 0.4% Colleges national trends (1.1%). State 42,127 495 1.2%• Community college University growth runs counter to 957 UMass 53,943 1.8% the national trend, where enrollment declined 2.2% System 196,936 1,876 1% from fall 2010 to fall 2011.
  4. 4. 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates Campus Highlights: Fall ‘11 to Fall ‘12 Increases in Undergrad. Headcount The campuses with the greatest fall-to-fall increases in undergraduate enrollment were : ▪ Framingham State University 6.2% ▪ University of Massachusetts Lowell 5.0% ▪ Fitchburg State University 4.3% ▪ Bunker Hill Community College 4.0% ▪ Northern Essex Community College 3.9% • UMass Lowell and Bunker Hill had the highest enrollment increases in their segments for at least the past three years. Framingham State had the highest enrollment increases over the past two years.
  5. 5. 2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesSegment Summary of Undergraduate Enrollment Fall-to-Fall Trend in Undergraduate Headcount Growth + + + + + +• Every year has brought growth in the state universities and UMass. Community colleges have only had one year without growth.• However, amount of growth has varied.• The start of the recession and large high school graduating classes inspired impressive year-to-year growth rates from fall 2007 to fall 2009. Growth has moderated since then.
  6. 6. 2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesFall Enrollment Long-Term Trend at a Glance 26% 21% 19% • Slower growth in recent years should not cloud the tremendous 23% growth in undergraduate enrollment over the last ten years.
  7. 7. 2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesImplications of Enrollment Trends What does the slowing growth in enrollment imply? • Meeting the degree production goals of the Vision Project will rely heavily on graduating more students already in the system. • However, increases in graduation rates alone are unlikely to enable us the fully achieve the Vision Project goals. • In order to effectively boost enrollments in the coming years, we will need to recruit larger cohorts of non-traditional students or students from frequently underserved populations, e.g.: • Latino Students • Older Students
  8. 8. 2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesLatino Students Projected Changes in Massachusetts High School Graduates 2011 to 2022 Total Latino Projected Change in High -9% +37% School Graduates Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door College-Going Rate of Massachusetts Public High School Graduates White Latino Percent of 2009 High school Graduates Enrolling in 72% 51% College in Fall 2009 Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, National Student Clearinghouse
  9. 9. 2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesOlder Students Growth in New Student Undergraduate Enrollment by Age Fall 2008 to Fall 2011 Under 25 25 and over Community Colleges 7% 23% State Universities 6% 7% University of Massachusetts 4% 20% System 6% 21% Note: “New” means entered institution for the first time as a freshman, transfer, readmitted or non-degree-seeking student.• Approximately 25% of our new students were 25 or older in 2011, which likely reflects the increasing economic pressure to obtain a college degree.
  10. 10. 2012 Early Enrollment EstimatesOlder Students Adults with high school diplomas and the labor market. • According to the Center for Education and Workforce (Georgetown): During the recession, the unemployment rate for high school graduates rose to 13.4% and remains at 9.4%. • During the post-recession recovery, people with high school diplomas or less continued to lose jobs (-230,000) whereas those with some college education or higher gained jobs (1.6–2 million) Massachusetts public higher education is the education gateway for working-age adults. • In fall 2011, 74% of undergraduate students age 25 and over enrolled in higher education in Massachusetts were enrolled in Massachusetts public higher education.
  11. 11. QuestionsJonathan Keller: jkeller@bhe.mass.edu or (617) 994-6941

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