FIN-321Homework 5 – Fall 20191. In class, we learned that we.docx

FIN-321
Homework 5 – Fall 2019
1. In class, we learned that we can assess the impact of a macro
indicator by running a regression of the appropriate measure of
stock market returns on the appropriate measure of the surprise
contained in the announcement of the macro indicator.
a. Using the posted spreadsheet, how exactly would you
measure a surprise in nonfarm payrolls? Please state your
answer by copying and pasting the corresponding Excel formula
with cell references below.
b. Using the posted spreadsheet, how exactly would you
measure the stock return associated with the nonfarm payroll
announcement? Please state your answer by copying and pasting
the corresponding Excel formula with cell references below.
2. Using your answer to question 1, estimate a regression of
announcement returns on nonfarm payroll surprises. Copy and
paste the regression statistics below. Based on your results, are
nonfarm payroll surprises a statistically significant determinant
of stock market returns? How does the economic magnitude of
their effect compare to that of ISM surprises (put differently,
which macro indicator has been a more powerful driver of stock
returns during the past 3 years

ISM_regression_chart
ISM surprise Line Fit Plot
SPY open-to-close return on ISM announcement date
0.0178571428571428 0.0330097087378641 -
0.00754716981132073 -0.05 0.0258964143426294
0.00386847195357825 0.0191570881226054
0.012962962962963 0.0181818181818182
0.0303571428571429 0.00175131348511386 -
0.0300884955752213 0.00365630712979882
0.0490018148820326 -0.0017730496453901
0.0407079646017699 0.0482758620689655 -
0.0134453781512605 -0.00171526586620916
0.0257731958762887 0.0051020408163266
0.0357751277683134 -0.0116666666666667 -
0.0205128205128206 0.0103270223752152
0.0343642611683849 -0.0218855218855218
0.064236111111111 -0.00664451827242534 -
0.0220338983050847 0.0313043478260869 -
0.0640138408304497 0.044280442804428 -
0.0286738351254479 0.0146788990825688 -0.04
0.00549923488905901 0.00267481849445916 -
0.00115106588701142 9.20090168836651E-5 -
0.000185339634880877 -0.00901704785610302 -
0.00525528926743079 0.000888730892285805 -
0.00278197629843813 0.00583078149251226 -
0.00199321458863444 0.0 0.00574451378270035 -
0.00275856389986817 -0.000565747999676791 -
0.000322684737011913 0.00330033003300323 -
0.00213145248798641 -0.00113310167699054
0.00561421772754333 0.0018144946098837 -
0.0136693563243803 -0.0193486954865739
0.00420661689468305 0.00436841525641496
0.00871952803235509 -0.00248614860065344 -
0.000103505382279767 -0.00130087980555271
0.00703240058910159 -0.00349650349650332 -

0.0161946581799137 -0.000333148250971638 -
7.13165026386964E-5 0.00396909027046011 -
0.00987377850162874 Predicted SPY open-to-close return on
ISM announcement date 0.0178571428571428
0.0330097087378641 -0.00754716981132073 -0.05
0.0258964143426294 0.00386847195357825
0.0191570881226054 0.012962962962963
0.0181818181818182 0.0303571428571429
0.00175131348511386 -0.0300884955752213
0.00365630712979882 0.0490018148820326 -
0.0017730496453901 0.0407079646017699
0.0482758620689655 -0.0134453781512605 -
0.00171526586620916 0.0257731958762887
0.0051020408163266 0.0357751277683134 -
0.0116666666666667 -0.0205128205128206
0.0103270223752152 0.0343642611683849 -
0.0218855218855218 0.064236111111111 -
0.00664451827242534 -0.0220338983050847
0.0313043478260869 -0.0640138408304497
0.044280442804428 -0.0286738351254479
0.0146788990825688 -0.04 -
0.000281998672491394 0.000655210609959789 -
0.00185329411080846 -0.0044790663286858
0.000215242515545895 -0.00114721927758085 -
0.000201595077545139 -0.000584711154517107 -
0.000261917009064625 0.00049114536943916 -
0.00127816875403813 -0.00324750944773449 -
0.00116034199513383 0.00164434673662257 -
0.00149615598251404 0.00113135946231464
0.00159944544925093 -0.00221810728169562 -
0.00149258196774652 0.00020762126569732 -
0.00107092116425725 0.000826255989706443 -
0.00210809126676545 -0.00265523935797784 -
0.000747748095341119 0.000738991741250962 -
0.00274014302899015 0.00258661116562393 -
0.00179746373806955 -0.00274932033656999

0.000549731439697245 -0.00534584373209582
0.00135232268129959 -0.00316001054388672 -
0.000478577891540578 -0.00386055109514136
ISM surprise
SPY open-to-close return on ISM announcement date
ISM_regressionSUMMARY OUTPUTStep 1:Locate the slope
coefficient which tells us whether the relation is positive or
negativeHere: positive, as expectedRegression
StatisticsMultiple R0.293Step 2:Is the relation statistically
significant? At conventional levelsR Square0.086(i)Is |t-
stat|>2?YesAdjusted R Square0.059or(ii)Is p-value<5%?The p-
value is the probability of observing the estimated slope
coefficient if there was no relation at all - YesStandard
Error0.006or(iii)Does the (lower 95%, upper 95%) confidence
interval contain 0? Significant if not.Observations36Stop if not
statistically significant.ANOVAStep 3:Is the relation
economically significant?dfSSMSFSignificance FTo answer, we
compute the standard deviation of X-variable (ISM
surprises)Regression10.0000.0003.1940.083Std3.0%Residual34
0.0010.000What effect does a 1-standard-deviation ISM surprise
have on SPY returns?Total350.001Std*Coeff0.18%We can
compare this effect with the average absolute daily SPY
returnCoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper
95%Average |Daily SPY return|0.43%Intercept-0.0010.001-
1.3320.192-0.0040.001This allows to estimate how big the
effect of an ISM surprise is relative to the average SPY
returnISM surprise0.0620.0351.7870.083-0.0080.13243%This is
substantial - Alan Greenspan is still correct about
ISMRESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted SPY open-to-
close return on ISM announcement dateResiduals1-
0.00028199870.005781233620.00065521060.00201960793-
0.00185329410.00070222824-
0.00447906630.004571075350.0002152425-0.00040058226-
0.0011472193-0.00786982867-0.0002015951-0.00505369428-
0.00058471120.0014734429-0.000261917-
0.0025200593100.00049114540.005339636111-0.0012781688-

0.000715045812-0.00324750940.003247509413-
0.0011603420.0069048558140.0016443467-0.004402910615-
0.0014961560.000930408160.0011313595-
0.0014540442170.00159944540.001700884618-
0.00221810730.000086654819-
0.0014925820.0003594803200.00020762130.005406596521-
0.00107092120.0028854158220.000826256-0.014495612323-
0.0021080913-0.017240604224-0.00265523940.006861856325-
0.00074774810.0051161634260.00073899170.007980536327-
0.0027401430.0002539944280.0025866112-0.002690116529-
0.00179746370.000496583930-
0.00274932030.0097817209310.0005497314-0.004046234932-
0.0053458437-0.0108488144330.0013523227-0.001685470934-
0.00316001050.00308869435-0.00047857790.004447668236-
0.0038605511-0.0060132274
ISMFactSet Economic CalendarJanuary 01, 2015 - May 28,
2019 *0=Very Low, 1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=HighDateTime
(GMT -
05:00)CountryEventImportance*PeriodActualConsensusPriorIS
M surpriseSPY open-to-close return on ISM announcement
date01-Jun-201610:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3MAY51.350.450.8 R1.8%0.55%0.55%01-Jul-201610:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3JUN53.251.551.3
R3.3%0.27%0.27%01-Aug-201610:00 AMUSISM
Manufacturing SA3JUL52.653.053.2 R-0.8%-0.12%0.12%01-
Sep-201610:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3AUG49.452.052.6 R-5.0%0.01%0.01%03-Oct-201610:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3SEP51.550.249.4 R2.6%-
0.02%0.02%01-Nov-201610:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3OCT51.951.751.5 R0.4%-0.90%0.90%01-Dec-201610:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3NOV53.252.251.9 R1.9%-
0.53%0.53%03-Jan-201710:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3DEC54.754.053.5 R1.3%0.09%0.09%01-Feb-201710:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3JAN56.055.054.5 R1.8%-
0.28%0.28%01-Mar-201710:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3FEB57.756.056.0 R3.0%0.58%0.58%03-Apr-201710:00

AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3MAR57.257.157.7 R0.2%-
0.20%0.20%01-May-201710:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3APR54.856.557.2 R-3.0%0.00%0.00%01-Jun-201710:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3MAY54.954.754.8
R0.4%0.57%0.57%03-Jul-201710:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3JUN57.855.154.9 R4.9%-0.28%0.28%01-Aug-201710:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3JUL56.356.457.8 R-0.2%-
0.06%0.06%01-Sep-201710:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3AUG58.856.556.3 R4.1%-0.03%0.03%02-Oct-201710:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3SEP60.858.058.8
R4.8%0.33%0.33%01-Nov-201710:00 AMUSISM
Manufacturing SA3OCT58.759.560.8 R-1.3%-0.21%0.21%01-
Dec-201710:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3NOV58.258.358.7 R-0.2%-0.11%0.11%03-Jan-201810:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3DEC59.758.258.2
R2.6%0.56%0.56%01-Feb-201810:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3JAN59.158.859.3 R0.5%0.18%0.18%01-Mar-201810:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3FEB60.858.759.1 R3.6%-
1.37%1.37%02-Apr-201810:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3MAR59.360.060.8 R-1.2%-1.93%1.93%01-May-201810:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3APR57.358.559.3 R-
2.1%0.42%0.42%01-Jun-201810:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3MAY58.758.157.3 R1.0%0.44%0.44%02-Jul-201810:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3JUN60.258.258.7
R3.4%0.87%0.87%01-Aug-201810:00 AMUSISM
Manufacturing SA3JUL58.159.460.2 R-2.2%-0.25%0.25%04-
Sep-201810:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3AUG61.357.658.1 R6.4%-0.01%0.01%01-Oct-201810:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3SEP59.860.261.3 R-0.7%-
0.13%0.13%01-Nov-201810:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3OCT57.759.059.8 R-2.2%0.70%0.70%03-Dec-201810:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3NOV59.357.557.7 R3.1%-
0.35%0.35%03-Jan-201910:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3DEC54.157.858.8 R-6.4%-1.62%1.62%01-Feb-201910:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3JAN56.654.254.3 R4.4%-
0.03%0.03%01-Mar-201910:00 AMUSISM Manufacturing

SA3FEB54.255.856.6-2.9%-0.01%0.01%01-Apr-201910:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing
SA3MAR55.354.554.21.5%0.40%0.40%01-May-201910:00
AMUSISM Manufacturing SA3APR52.855.055.3-4.0%-
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CC_US
CC_regression_chart
CC Surprise Line Fit Plot
SPY open-to-close return on CC announcement date -
0.0354166666666667 0.0503751339764202
0.0135416666666666 0.0411946446961895
0.0515151515151514 -0.0256916996047432
0.0593471810089021 0.0498614958448754 -
0.00886524822695035 0.0342342342342342
0.102721685689201 -0.0179591836734694 -
0.0133891213389121 0.025 0.0439655172413793
0.0241666666666667 -0.00166666666666669
0.0404958677685951 0.0443548387096774 -
0.0468384074941452 0.0195121951219513
0.0315457413249212 -0.0251908396946565

0.0214285714285713 0.0 -0.0125
0.0071146245059289 0.0537124802527647
0.0484848484848485 0.0139705882352942
0.00295639320029547 -0.0411676646706587 -0.0384
0.0571198712791634 -0.0598484848484849
0.0213438735177865 -0.00341945288753798
0.00853186420488394 0.00101602549300317 -
0.00119123980573621 0.00710114459238498 -
0.00237562884292908 0.0017685470705604
0.00110609680559248 0.002423120979822 -
0.000845058520302477 0.00878809962704152
0.00269009289227018 0.000662965111460911 -
0.00703587886767598 -0.00104974160206728
0.00736443676458487 -0.0013631625370859 -
0.000116649817248682 0.00809173186071499 -
0.000224399730720304 -0.00297239915074321 -
0.0132321743195138 -0.0209264755607318 -
0.0177417547529227 -0.00477229847212468 -
0.00014725371815627 0.00185178590506019 -
0.00130899069927659 -0.00267553939560239
0.0155497402055598 0.0077344747315462
0.0226738673372635 -0.00193240375871473
0.000680686418514709 0.00046264991636713
0.00180585369177821 Predicted SPY open-to-close
return on CC announcement date -0.0354166666666667
0.0503751339764202 0.0135416666666666
0.0411946446961895 0.0515151515151514 -
0.0256916996047432 0.0593471810089021
0.0498614958448754 -0.00886524822695035
0.0342342342342342 0.102721685689201 -
0.0179591836734694 -0.0133891213389121 0.025
0.0439655172413793 0.0241666666666667 -
0.00166666666666669 0.0404958677685951
0.0443548387096774 -0.0468384074941452
0.0195121951219513 0.0315457413249212 -
0.0251908396946565 0.0214285714285713 0.0 -0.0125

0.0071146245059289 0.0537124802527647
0.0484848484848485 0.0139705882352942
0.00295639320029547 -0.0411676646706587 -0.0384
0.0571198712791634 -0.0598484848484849
0.0213438735177865 -0.000475759261061889
0.00114409356765986 0.000448633211704014
0.000970754840436987 0.00116561847588027 -
0.000292140135616337 0.00131349665345652
0.00113439545928487 2.55635919818201E-5
0.000839333883057055 0.00213245969624292 -
0.000146140894307499 -5.98525970043004E-5
0.000664980386181141 0.00102307226117776
0.000649246046219169 0.00016148150739801
0.000957561087953363 0.0010304231207818 -
0.000691415524826398 0.000561364001065711
0.000788571889352475 -0.000282683295497985
0.000597547500629827 0.000192950187321956 -
4.30649121076349E-5 0.000327282892135638
0.00120710669671926 0.00110840269420037
0.000456731769037384 0.000248770462131613 -
0.000584345050320413 -0.00053208819812575
0.00127144235527054 -0.000937061500856091
0.000595948301762997
CC Surprise
SPY open-to-close return on CC announcement date
CC_regressionSUMMARY OUTPUTStep 1:Positive relation
between CC surprise and stock returnsRegression StatisticsStep
2:Not statistically significantMultiple R0.087R
Square0.008Adjusted R Square-0.022Standard
Error0.008Observations36ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance
FRegression11.68E-051.68E-052.61E-016.13E-
01Residual342.18E-036.42E-05Total352.20E-
03CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper
95%Intercept0.0000.0010.1340.894-0.0030.003CC
Surprise0.0190.0370.5110.613-0.0560.094RESIDUAL
OUTPUTObservationPredicted SPY open-to-close return on CC

announcement dateResiduals1-0.0004757593-
0.002943693620.00114409360.007387770630.00044863320.000
567392340.0009707548-
0.002161994650.00116561850.00593552616-0.0002921401-
0.002083488770.00131349670.000455050480.0011343955-
0.000028298790.00002556360.0023975574100.0008393339-
0.0016843924110.00213245970.006655639912-
0.00014614090.002836233813-
0.00005985260.0007228177140.0006649804-
0.0077008593150.0010230723-
0.0020728139160.0006492460.0067151907170.0001614815-
0.001524644180.0009575611-
0.0010742109190.00103042310.007061308720-
0.00069141550.0004670158210.000561364-
0.0035337632220.0007885719-0.014020746223-0.0002826833-
0.0206437923240.0005975475-0.0183393023250.0001929502-
0.004965248726-0.0000430649-
0.0001041888270.00032728290.001524503280.0012071067-
0.0025160974290.0011084027-
0.0037839421300.00045673180.0150930084310.00024877050.0
07485704332-0.00058434510.023258212433-0.0005320882-
0.0014003156340.0012714424-0.000590755935-
0.00093706150.0013997114360.00059594830.0012099054
consumer_confidenceFactSet Economic CalendarJanuary 01,
2000 - May 28, 2019 *0=Very Low, 1=Low, 2=Medium,
3=HighDateTime (GMT -
05:00)CountryEventImportance*PeriodActualConsensusPriorCC
SurpriseSPY open-to-close return on CC announcement date31-
May-201610:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3MAY92.696.094.7 R-3.54%-0.34%28-Jun-
201610:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3JUN98.093.392.4
R5.04%0.85%26-Jul-201610:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3JUL97.396.097.4 R1.35%0.10%30-Aug-201610:00
AMUSConsumer Confidence3AUG101.197.196.7 R4.12%-
0.12%27-Sep-201610:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3SEP104.199.0101.8 R5.15%0.71%25-Oct-

201610:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3OCT98.6101.2103.5 R-
2.57%-0.24%29-Nov-201610:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3NOV107.1101.1100.8 R5.93%0.18%27-Dec-
201610:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3DEC113.7108.3109.4
R4.99%0.11%31-Jan-201710:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3JAN111.8112.8113.3 R-0.89%0.24%28-Feb-
201710:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3FEB114.8111.0111.6
R3.42%-0.08%28-Mar-201710:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3MAR125.6113.9116.1 R10.27%0.88%25-Apr-
201710:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3APR120.3122.5124.9
R-1.80%0.27%30-May-201710:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3MAY117.9119.5119.4 R-1.34%0.07%27-Jun-
R2.50%-0.70%25-Jul-201710:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3JUL121.1116.0117.3 R4.40%-0.10%29-Aug-
201710:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3AUG122.9120.0120.0
R2.42%0.74%26-Sep-201710:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3SEP119.8120.0120.4 R-0.17%-0.14%31-Oct-
201710:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3OCT125.9121.0120.6
R4.05%-0.01%28-Nov-201710:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3NOV129.5124.0126.2 R4.44%0.81%27-Dec-
R-4.68%-0.02%30-Jan-201810:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3JAN125.4123.0123.1 R1.95%-0.30%27-Feb-
R3.15%-1.32%27-Mar-201810:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3MAR127.7131.0130.0 R-2.52%-2.09%24-Apr-
R2.14%-1.77%29-May-201810:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3MAY128.0128.0125.6 R0.00%-0.48%26-Jun-
R-1.25%-0.01%31-Jul-201810:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3JUL127.4126.5127.1 R0.71%0.19%28-Aug-
201810:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3AUG133.4126.6127.9
R5.37%-0.13%25-Sep-201810:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3SEP138.4132.0134.7 R4.85%-0.27%30-Oct-

201810:00 AMUSConsumer Confidence3OCT137.9136.0135.3
R1.40%1.55%27-Nov-201810:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3NOV135.7135.3137.90.30%0.77%27-Dec-
R-4.12%2.27%29-Jan-201910:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3JAN120.2125.0126.6 R-3.84%-0.19%26-Feb-
R5.71%0.07%26-Mar-201910:00 AMUSConsumer
Confidence3MAR124.1132.0131.4-5.98%0.05%30-Apr-
R2.13%0.18%fdsup://FactSet/Economics%20Analysis?_report=
HTML_Economic_Synopsis&FLOAT_WINDOW=true&ACTIO
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ER=CC_US
nonfarm_payrollsFactSet Economic CalendarJanuary 01, 2015 -
May 10, 2019 *0=Very Low, 1=Low, 2=Medium,
3=HighDateTime (GMT -
05:00)CountryEventImportance*PeriodActualConsensusPrior03-
Jun-201608:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3MAY38.0K160.0K123.0K R08-Jul-201608:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3JUN287.0K180.0K11.0K R05-
Aug-201608:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls

SA3JUL255.0K175.0K292.0K R02-Sep-201608:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3AUG151.0K182.5K275.0K R07-
Oct-201608:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3SEP156.0K175.0K167.0K R04-Nov-201608:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3OCT161.0K174.0K191.0K R02-
Dec-201608:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3NOV178.0K173.5K142.0K R06-Jan-201708:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3DEC156.0K175.0K204.0K R03-
Feb-201708:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3JAN227.0K175.0K157.0K R10-Mar-201708:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3FEB235.0K188.0K238.0K R07-
Apr-201708:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3MAR98.0K180.0K219.0K R05-May-201708:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3APR211.0K185.0K79.0K R02-Jun-
201708:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3MAY138.0K180.0K174.0K R07-Jul-201708:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3JUN222.0K177.0K152.0K R04-
Aug-201708:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3JUL209.0K180.0K231.0K R01-Sep-201708:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3AUG156.0K180.0K189.0K R06-
Oct-201708:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3SEP-
33.0K85.0K169.0K R03-Nov-201708:30 AMUSNonfarm
Payrolls SA3OCT261.0K310.0K18.0K R08-Dec-201708:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3NOV228.0K192.5K244.0K R05-
Jan-201808:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3DEC148.0K189.0K252.0K R02-Feb-201808:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3JAN200.0K175.0K160.0K R09-
Mar-201808:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3FEB313.0K200.0K239.0K R06-Apr-201808:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3MAR103.0K185.0K326.0K R04-
May-201808:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3APR164.0K191.0K135.0K R01-Jun-201808:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3MAY223.0K190.0K159.0K R06-
Jul-201808:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3JUN213.0K195.0K244.0K R03-Aug-201808:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3JUL157.0K192.0K248.0K R07-

Sep-201808:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3AUG201.0K189.0K147.0K R05-Oct-201808:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3SEP134.0K185.0K270.0K R02-
Nov-201808:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3OCT250.0K193.0K118.0K R07-Dec-201808:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3NOV155.0K195.0K237.0K R04-
Jan-201908:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3DEC312.0K180.0K176.0K R01-Feb-201908:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3JAN304.0K165.0K222.0K R08-
Mar-201908:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3FEB20.0K180.0K311.0K R05-Apr-201908:30
AMUSNonfarm Payrolls SA3MAR196.0K175.0K33.0K R03-
May-201908:30 AMUSNonfarm Payrolls
SA3APR263.0K181.0K189.0K
Rfdsup://FactSet/Economics%20Analysis?_report=HTML_Econ
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sp500DatePrior closeSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust - Price -
Opening (Right)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust - Price - Close or
Current Intraday
(Left)01/01/15n/a207.99205.5401/02/15205.54206.38205.4301/
05/15205.43204.17201.7601/06/15201.76202.09199.8201/07/15

199.82201.42202.3101/08/15202.31204.01205.9001/09/15205.9
0206.40204.2501/12/15204.25204.41202.6501/13/15202.65204.
12202.0801/14/15202.08199.65200.8601/15/15200.86201.63199
.0201/16/15199.02198.77201.6301/19/15201.63198.77201.6301/
20/15201.63202.40202.0601/21/15202.06201.50203.0801/22/15
203.08203.99206.1001/23/15206.10205.79204.9701/26/15204.9
7204.71205.4501/27/15205.45202.97202.7401/28/15202.74204.
17200.1401/29/15200.14200.38201.9901/30/15201.99200.57199
.4502/02/15199.45200.05201.9202/03/15201.92203.00204.8402/
04/15204.84203.92204.0602/05/15204.06204.86206.1202/06/15
206.12206.56205.5502/09/15205.55204.77204.6302/10/15204.6
3205.88206.8102/11/15206.81206.61206.9302/12/15206.93207.
89208.9202/13/15208.92209.07209.7802/16/15209.78209.07209
.7802/17/15209.78209.40210.1102/18/15210.11209.66210.1302/
19/15210.13209.41209.9802/20/15209.98209.48211.2402/23/15
211.24210.94211.2102/24/15211.21211.12211.8102/25/15211.8
1211.66211.6302/26/15211.63211.52211.3802/27/15211.38211.
26210.6603/02/15210.66210.78211.9903/03/15211.99211.47211
.1203/04/15211.12210.40210.2303/05/15210.23210.62210.4603/
06/15210.46209.42207.5003/09/15207.50207.74208.3603/10/15
208.36206.71204.9803/11/15204.98205.29204.5003/12/15204.5
0205.26207.1003/13/15207.10206.77205.8303/16/15205.83206.
71208.5803/17/15208.58207.69207.9603/18/15207.96207.39210
.4603/19/15210.46209.96209.5003/20/15209.50209.71210.4103/
23/15210.41210.42210.0003/24/15210.00209.85208.8203/25/15
208.82209.07205.7603/26/15205.76204.96205.2703/27/15205.2
7205.13205.7403/30/15205.74206.98208.2503/31/15208.25207.
26206.4304/01/15206.43206.39205.7004/02/15205.70205.62206
.4404/03/15206.44205.62206.4404/06/15206.44205.37207.8304/
07/15207.83207.86207.2804/08/15207.28207.55207.9804/09/15
207.98207.78208.9004/10/15208.90209.20210.0404/13/15210.0
4209.87209.0904/14/15209.09208.85209.4904/15/15209.49210.
05210.4304/16/15210.43210.03210.3704/17/15210.37208.94207
.9504/20/15207.95209.06209.8504/21/15209.85210.67209.6004/
22/15209.60210.01210.6304/23/15210.63210.15211.1604/24/15
211.16211.66211.6504/27/15211.65212.33210.7704/28/15210.7

7210.74211.4404/29/15211.44210.37210.5704/30/15210.57209.
88208.4605/01/15208.46209.40210.7205/04/15210.72211.23211
.3205/05/15211.32211.03208.9005/06/15208.90209.56208.0405/
07/15208.04207.92208.8705/08/15208.87210.88211.6205/11/15
211.62211.57210.6105/12/15210.61209.61209.9805/13/15209.9
8210.47210.0205/14/15210.02211.24212.2105/15/15212.21212.
44212.4405/18/15212.44212.24213.1005/19/15213.10213.24213
.0305/20/15213.03213.15212.8805/21/15212.88212.71213.5005/
22/15213.50213.04212.9905/25/15212.99213.04212.9905/26/15
212.99212.40210.7005/27/15210.70211.25212.7005/28/15212.7
0212.33212.4605/29/15212.46212.38211.1406/01/15211.14211.
94211.5706/02/15211.57211.02211.3606/03/15211.36212.00211
.9206/04/15211.92211.07210.1306/05/15210.13209.95209.7706/
08/15209.77209.64208.4806/09/15208.48208.45208.4506/10/15
208.45209.37210.9506/11/15210.95211.48211.6306/12/15211.6
3210.64210.0106/15/15210.01208.64209.1106/16/15209.11208.
93210.2506/17/15210.25210.59210.5906/18/15210.59211.31212
.7806/19/15212.78211.46210.8106/22/15210.81211.91211.8906/
23/15211.89212.14212.0406/24/15212.04211.72210.5006/25/15
210.50211.10209.8606/26/15209.86210.29209.8206/29/15209.8
2208.05205.4206/30/15205.42207.26205.8507/01/15205.85207.
73207.5007/02/15207.50208.07207.3107/03/15207.31208.07207
.3107/06/15207.31205.77206.7207/07/15206.72206.96208.0207/
08/15208.02206.42204.5307/09/15204.53207.04204.9007/10/15
204.90207.29207.4807/13/15207.48208.99209.7707/14/15209.7
7209.72210.6807/15/15210.68210.73210.6107/16/15210.61211.
87212.3007/17/15212.30212.29212.4807/20/15212.48212.75212
.5907/21/15212.59212.43211.7507/22/15211.75210.93211.3707/
23/15211.37211.53210.1807/24/15210.18210.30208.0007/27/15
208.00206.94206.7907/28/15206.79207.79209.3307/29/15209.3
3209.48210.7707/30/15210.77210.16210.8207/31/15210.82211.
42210.5008/03/15210.50210.46209.7908/04/15209.79209.70209
.3808/05/15209.38210.45210.0708/06/15210.07210.29208.3508/
07/15208.35208.16207.9508/10/15207.95209.28210.5708/11/15
210.57208.97208.6708/12/15208.67207.11208.9208/13/15208.9
2208.73208.6608/14/15208.66208.43209.4208/17/15209.42208.

71210.5908/18/15210.59210.26209.9808/19/15209.98209.09208
.3208/20/15208.32206.51203.9708/21/15203.97201.73197.6308/
24/15197.63187.49189.5508/25/15189.55195.43187.2708/26/15
187.27192.08194.4608/27/15194.46197.02199.2708/28/15199.2
7198.50199.2808/31/15199.28198.11197.6709/01/15197.67193.
12191.7709/02/15191.77194.62195.4109/03/15195.41196.26195
.5509/04/15195.55192.85192.5909/07/15192.59192.85192.5909/
08/15192.59195.94197.4309/09/15197.43199.32194.7909/10/15
194.79194.56195.8509/11/15195.85195.38196.7409/14/15196.7
4196.95196.0109/15/15196.01196.61198.4609/16/15198.46198.
82200.1809/17/15200.18200.02199.7309/18/15199.73195.71195
.4509/21/15195.45196.44196.4609/22/15196.46193.88193.9109/
23/15193.91194.11193.6009/24/15193.60192.15192.9009/25/15
192.90194.64192.8509/28/15192.85191.78188.0109/29/15188.0
1188.27188.1209/30/15188.12190.37191.6310/01/15191.63192.
08192.1310/02/15192.13189.77195.0010/05/15195.00196.46198
.4710/06/15198.47198.31197.7910/07/15197.79198.90199.4110/
08/15199.41198.95201.2110/09/15201.21201.38201.3310/12/15
201.33201.42201.5210/13/15201.52200.65200.2510/14/15200.2
5200.18199.2910/15/15199.29200.08202.3510/16/15202.35202.
83203.2710/19/15203.27202.50203.3710/20/15203.37202.85203
.0910/21/15203.09203.61201.8510/22/15201.85202.98205.2610/
23/15205.26207.25207.5110/26/15207.51207.30207.0010/27/15
207.00206.20206.6010/28/15206.60207.00208.9510/29/15208.9
5208.35208.8310/30/15208.83209.06207.9311/02/15207.93208.
32210.3911/03/15210.39209.97211.0011/04/15211.00211.35210
.3611/05/15210.36210.43210.1511/06/15210.15209.74210.0411/
09/15210.04209.31208.0811/10/15208.08207.51208.5611/11/15
208.56208.88207.7411/12/15207.74206.50204.8411/13/15204.8
4204.35202.5411/16/15202.54202.32205.6211/17/15205.62205.
99205.4711/18/15205.47206.04208.7311/19/15208.73208.59208
.5511/20/15208.55209.45209.3111/23/15209.31209.38209.0711/
24/15209.07207.87209.3511/25/15209.35209.50209.3211/26/15
209.32209.50209.3211/27/15209.32209.43209.5611/30/15209.5
6209.75208.6912/01/15208.69209.44210.6812/02/15210.68210.
62208.5312/03/15208.53208.83205.6112/04/15205.61206.08209

.6212/07/15209.62209.23208.3512/08/15208.35206.49206.9512/
09/15206.95206.19205.3412/10/15205.34205.42205.8712/11/15
205.87203.35201.8812/14/15201.88202.07202.9012/15/15202.9
0204.70205.0312/16/15205.03206.37208.0312/17/15208.03208.
40204.8612/18/15204.86202.77200.0212/21/15200.02201.41201
.6712/22/15201.67202.72203.5012/23/15203.50204.69206.0212/
24/15206.02205.72205.6812/25/15205.68205.72205.6812/28/15
205.68204.86205.2112/29/15205.21206.51207.4012/30/15207.4
0207.11205.9312/31/15205.93205.13203.8701/01/16203.87205.
13203.8701/04/16203.87200.49201.0201/05/16201.02201.40201
.3601/06/16201.36198.34198.8201/07/16198.82195.33194.0501/
08/16194.05195.19191.9201/11/16191.92193.01192.1101/12/16
192.11193.82193.6601/13/16193.66194.45188.8301/14/16188.8
3189.55191.9301/15/16191.93186.77187.8101/18/16187.81186.
77187.8101/19/16187.81189.96188.0601/20/16188.06185.03185
.6501/21/16185.65186.21186.6901/22/16186.69189.78190.5201/
25/16190.52189.92187.6401/26/16187.64188.42190.2001/27/16
190.20189.58188.1301/28/16188.13189.96189.1101/29/16189.1
1190.02193.7202/01/16193.72192.53193.6502/02/16193.65191.
96190.1602/03/16190.16191.41191.3002/04/16191.30190.71191
.6002/05/16191.60190.99187.9502/08/16187.95185.77185.4202/
09/16185.42183.36185.4302/10/16185.43186.41185.2702/11/16
185.27182.34182.8602/12/16182.86184.96186.6302/15/16186.6
3184.96186.6302/16/16186.63188.77189.7802/17/16189.78191.
16192.8802/18/16192.88193.20192.0902/19/16192.09191.17192
.0002/22/16192.00193.87194.7802/23/16194.78194.00192.3202/
24/16192.32190.63193.2002/25/16193.20193.73195.5402/26/16
195.54196.57195.0902/29/16195.09195.11193.5603/01/16193.5
6195.01198.1103/02/16198.11197.74199.0003/03/16199.00198.
79199.7803/04/16199.78200.01200.4303/07/16200.43199.34200
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10/16199.38199.96199.5403/11/16199.54201.26202.7603/14/16
202.76202.16202.5003/15/16202.50201.36202.1703/16/16202.1
7201.60203.3403/17/16203.34203.24204.6303/18/16204.63204.
17204.3803/21/16204.38204.07204.6703/22/16204.67203.76204
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25/16203.12202.00203.1203/28/16203.12203.61203.2403/29/16
203.24202.76205.1203/30/16205.12206.30206.0203/31/16206.0
2205.91205.5204/01/16205.52204.35206.9204/04/16206.92206.
83206.2504/05/16206.25204.67204.1904/06/16204.19204.29206
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11/16204.50205.25204.0204/12/16204.02204.22205.9204/13/16
205.92207.00208.0004/14/16208.00208.07208.0104/15/16208.0
1208.01207.7804/18/16207.78207.14209.2404/19/16209.24209.
74209.9004/20/16209.90209.95210.1004/21/16210.10210.12208
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26/16208.61209.04208.9204/27/16208.92208.47209.3504/28/16
209.35208.46207.4504/29/16207.45206.72206.3305/02/16206.3
3206.92207.9705/03/16207.97206.52206.1605/04/16206.16204.
99205.0105/05/16205.01205.56204.9705/06/16204.97204.06205
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11/16208.45207.91206.5005/12/16206.50207.29206.5605/13/16
206.56206.21204.7605/16/16204.76204.96206.7805/17/16206.7
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26/16209.28209.44209.3405/27/16209.34209.53210.2405/30/16
210.24209.53210.2405/31/16210.24210.56209.8406/01/16209.8
4209.12210.270.55%06/02/16210.27209.80210.9106/03/16210.9
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53211.6806/08/16211.68211.84212.3706/09/16212.37211.51212
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14/16208.45208.00208.0406/15/16208.04208.54207.7506/16/16
207.75206.73208.3706/17/16208.37207.17206.5206/20/16206.5
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29/16203.20204.84206.6606/30/16206.66207.21209.4807/01/16
209.48209.36209.9207/04/16209.92209.36209.9207/05/16209.9
2208.95208.4107/06/16208.41207.83209.6607/07/16209.66209.
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14/16214.92216.40216.1207/15/16216.12216.78215.8307/18/16
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40284.0608/17/18284.06283.83285.0608/20/18285.06285.57285
.6708/21/18285.67286.25286.3408/22/18286.34285.88286.1708/
23/18286.17285.97285.7908/24/18285.79286.44287.5108/27/18
287.51288.86289.7808/28/18289.78290.30289.9208/29/18289.9

2290.16291.4808/30/18291.48290.94290.3008/31/18290.30289.
84290.3109/03/18290.31289.84290.3109/04/18290.31289.84289
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07/18288.16286.98287.6009/10/18287.60288.74288.1009/11/18
288.10287.37289.0509/12/18289.05289.06289.1209/13/18289.1
2290.32290.8309/14/18290.83291.06290.8809/17/18290.88290.
82289.3409/18/18289.34289.58290.9109/19/18290.91290.97291
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24/18291.99291.34291.0209/25/18291.02291.53290.7509/26/18
290.75290.91289.8809/27/18289.88290.41290.6909/28/18290.6
9289.99290.7210/01/18290.72292.11291.7310/02/18291.73291.
56291.5610/03/18291.56292.74291.7210/04/18291.72291.18289
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09/18287.82287.39287.4010/10/18287.40286.83278.3010/11/18
278.30277.08272.1710/12/18272.17276.77275.9510/15/18275.9
5275.55274.4010/16/18274.40276.60280.4010/17/18280.40280.
44280.4510/18/18280.45279.40276.4010/19/18276.40277.13276
.2510/22/18276.25277.00275.0110/23/18275.01270.95273.6110/
24/18273.61273.33265.3210/25/18265.32267.38270.0810/26/18
270.08265.92265.3310/29/18265.33268.80263.8610/30/18263.8
6263.67267.7710/31/18267.77270.65270.6311/01/18270.63271.
60273.5111/02/18273.51274.75271.8911/05/18271.89272.44273
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08/18281.01280.11280.5011/09/18280.50279.03277.7611/12/18
277.76277.19272.5711/13/18272.57273.09272.0611/14/18272.0
6274.16270.2011/15/18270.20268.78273.0211/16/18273.02271.
79273.7311/19/18273.73273.05269.1011/20/18269.10265.36264
.1211/21/18264.12265.86265.0211/22/18265.02265.86265.0211/
23/18265.02263.18263.2511/26/18263.25265.78267.5011/27/18
267.50266.34268.4011/28/18268.40269.60274.5811/29/18274.5
8273.71273.9811/30/18273.98273.81275.6512/03/18275.65280.
28279.3012/04/18279.30278.37270.2512/05/18270.25278.37270
.2512/06/18270.25265.92269.8412/07/18269.84269.46263.5712/
10/18263.57263.37264.0712/11/18264.07267.66264.1312/12/18
264.13267.47265.4612/13/18265.46266.52265.3712/14/18265.3
7262.96260.4712/17/18260.47259.40255.3612/18/18255.36257.

20255.0812/19/18255.08255.17251.2612/20/18251.26249.86247
.1712/21/18247.17246.74240.7012/24/18240.70239.04234.3412/
25/18234.34239.04234.3412/26/18234.34235.97246.1812/27/18
246.18242.57248.0712/28/18248.07249.58247.7512/31/18247.7
5249.56249.9201/01/19249.92249.56249.9201/02/19249.92245.
98250.1801/03/19250.18248.23244.2101/04/19244.21247.59252
.3901/07/19252.39252.69254.3801/08/19254.38256.82256.7701/
09/19256.77257.56257.9701/10/19257.97256.26258.8801/11/19
258.88257.68258.9801/14/19258.98256.86257.4001/15/19257.4
0257.82260.3501/16/19260.35260.83260.9801/17/19260.98260.
01262.9601/18/19262.96264.98266.4601/21/19266.46264.98266
.4601/22/19266.46264.82262.8601/23/19262.86264.01263.4101/
24/19263.41263.21263.5501/25/19263.55265.61265.7801/28/19
265.78263.39263.7601/29/19263.76263.92263.4101/30/19263.4
1265.10267.5801/31/19267.58267.51269.9302/01/19269.93270.
15270.0602/04/19270.06270.11271.9602/05/19271.96272.44273
.1002/06/19273.10272.79272.7402/07/19272.74270.94270.1402/
08/19270.14268.75270.4702/11/19270.47271.20270.6202/12/19
270.62272.42274.1002/13/19274.10275.03274.9902/14/19274.9
9273.78274.3802/15/19274.38276.36277.3702/18/19277.37276.
36277.3702/19/19277.37276.48277.8502/20/19277.85277.81278
.4102/21/19278.41277.70277.4202/22/19277.42278.11279.1402/
25/19279.14280.73279.5202/26/19279.52279.13279.3202/27/19
279.32278.52279.2002/28/19279.20278.96278.6803/01/19278.6
8280.44280.4203/04/19280.42281.60279.4003/05/19279.40279.
54279.0203/06/19279.02279.15277.3303/07/19277.33276.83275
.0103/08/19275.01272.94274.4603/11/19274.46275.26278.4403/
12/19278.44279.06279.4903/13/19279.49280.48281.3403/14/19
281.34281.37281.1603/15/19281.16280.54281.3103/18/19281.3
1281.55282.3303/19/19282.33283.51282.4003/20/19282.40282.
16281.5503/21/19281.55280.64284.7303/22/19284.73283.22279
.2503/25/19279.25278.87279.0403/26/19279.04280.99281.1203/
27/19281.12281.11279.6503/28/19279.65280.35280.7103/29/19
280.71282.39282.4804/01/19282.48284.70285.8304/02/19285.8
3286.04285.9704/03/19285.97287.32286.4204/04/19286.42286.
78287.1804/05/19287.18287.92288.5704/08/19288.57288.10288

.7904/09/19288.79287.72287.3104/10/19287.31287.77288.2904/
11/19288.29288.83288.2104/12/19288.21290.00290.1604/15/19
290.16290.24289.9704/16/19289.97290.95290.1604/17/19290.1
6291.40289.4504/18/19289.45290.10290.0204/19/19290.02290.
10290.0204/22/19290.02289.17290.2704/23/19290.27290.68292
.8804/24/19292.88292.79292.2304/25/19292.23292.12292.0504/
26/19292.05292.10293.4104/29/19293.41293.51293.8704/30/19
293.87293.49294.0205/01/19294.02294.72291.8105/02/19291.8
1291.68291.1805/03/19291.18292.82294.0305/06/19294.03289.
25292.8205/07/19292.82290.15287.9305/08/19287.93287.53287
.5305/09/19287.53285.23286.6605/10/19286.66285.62288.10

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