A talk I gave after Ireland's 2011 budget.

1. Where to now?
Stephen Kinsella | UL

3. Tonight:

5. Midwest-Budget-The 4
Year Plan-EU/IMF

7. This day, last year, this
room, I said:

8. WE DID THIS
TO OURSELVES BY
THINKING SHORT-TERM.

9. #BUDGET10

10. #BUDGET10
Capital investment
slashed

11. #BUDGET10
Capital investment
slashed
70 million for flood
victims

12. #BUDGET10
Capital investment
slashed
70 million for flood
victims
Tax breaks for
startups

13. #BUDGET10
Capital investment
slashed
70 million for flood
victims
Tax breaks for
startups
Credit review for
banks

14. #BUDGET10
Capital investment
Mortgage default
slashed
moratorium~beware!
70 million for flood
victims
Tax breaks for
startups
Credit review for
banks

15. #BUDGET10
Capital investment
Mortgage default
slashed
moratorium~beware!
70 million for flood
Carbon taxes
victims
Tax breaks for
startups
Credit review for
banks

16. #BUDGET10
Capital investment
Mortgage default
slashed
moratorium~beware!
70 million for flood
Carbon taxes
victims
Pension reform
Tax breaks for
mooted.
startups
Credit review for
banks

17. #BUDGET10
Capital investment
Mortgage default
slashed
moratorium~beware!
70 million for flood
Carbon taxes
victims
Pension reform
Tax breaks for
mooted.
startups
National Recovery
Credit review for
Bonds
banks

18. #BUDGET11

19. #BUDGET11
Capital investment
slashed, again

20. #BUDGET11
Capital investment
slashed, again
Current expenditure
left alone largely

21. #BUDGET11
Capital investment
slashed, again
Current expenditure
left alone largely
Capital expenditure
slashed

22. #BUDGET11
Capital investment
slashed, again
Current expenditure
left alone largely
Capital expenditure
slashed
Travel Tax

23. #BUDGET11
Capital investment
Tax breaks for
slashed, again
startups, again
Current expenditure
left alone largely
Capital expenditure
slashed
Travel Tax

24. #BUDGET11
Capital investment
Tax breaks for
slashed, again
startups, again
Current expenditure
Carbon taxes~No
left alone largely
Capital expenditure
slashed
Travel Tax

25. #BUDGET11
Capital investment
Tax breaks for
slashed, again
startups, again
Current expenditure
Carbon taxes~No
left alone largely
Pension reform?
Capital expenditure
mooted.
slashed
Travel Tax

26. #BUDGET11
Capital investment
Tax breaks for
slashed, again
startups, again
Current expenditure
Carbon taxes~No
left alone largely
Pension reform?
Capital expenditure
mooted.
slashed
Municipal bonds X
Travel Tax

27. THE MIDWEST

31. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN
< 1950: agriculture
CONTEXT
1950-1960: Agriculture + Light industries (flour, meat, sweets)
1970+: IDA policies with Shannon Airport deliver new large
companies like Ferenka, Krups
1978: Ferenka leaves, local economy devastated: 1400 let go
1998 Krups leaves, local economy devastated: 800 let go
1990s: UL, IDA, Shannon Development and Shannon Airport
entice DELL, Vistakon, Analog, etc
2009: Dell leaves: 1900+ let go

32. A regional depression.
2007 2010
http://www.ronanlyons.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/mu25-unemp.png

34. Need investment, job
creation, active labour
market policies.

36. Budget.

38. Some Context.

40. 1 billion = 1000 million.

42. One more time:

44. 1 billion = 1000 million.

46. 1 billion
months ago,
these guys
were in charge.

47. Think of grains of salt.
a thousand: in a pinch
a million: in a cup,
a billion: in a bathtub.
Total banking sector liabilities c.440bn
Think 440 bathtubs of salt.
That’s Thomond Park, filled with
bathtubs.

48. €85bn

49. €85bn

51. 4 year plan.

52. uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The drama
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
e: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.

53. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

54. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

55. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Borrowing
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

56. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Borrowing
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

57. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Borrowing
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

58. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Borrowing
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

59. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Borrowing
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

60. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Borrowing
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

61. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Borrowing
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
Revenues
70,000 Spending
60,000
€ Million
50,000
1/3
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

62. ace, which will overhang the market for many years. Government
ending relative to GNP was growing up to 2007, and even more so if the
NP growth rates and hence tax buoyancy from, say, 2002 onwards were in
uth not as good as they looked, as we see in Figure 5.3. The dramatic
Borrowing
Figure 5.2: Irish Government Spending and Revenues
80,000
70,000
Revenues
Spending
2/3
60,000
€ Million
50,000
1/3
40,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015
Year
urce: CSO, National Accounts Database.
ote: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
Irish Government Spending and Revenues.
Source: CSO, National Accounts Database. Note: The 2009 figure is a forecasted annual figure.
108

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71. Budget.

73. Not so bad.

75. What’s not there?

77. What’s next?

78. Social Welfare
Health
Education
Justice
Agriculture
Enterprise
Other

79. Social Welfare
Health
Education
Justice
Agriculture
Enterprise
Other
38%

80. Social Welfare
Health
Education
Justice
Agriculture
Enterprise
Other
38%
27%

81. Social Welfare
Health
Education
Justice
Agriculture
Enterprise
Other
38%
15%
27%

82. Social Welfare
Health
Education
Justice
Agriculture
Enterprise
4%
Other
38%
15%
27%

83. Social Welfare
Health
Education
Justice
Agriculture
3%
Enterprise
4%
Other
38%
15%
27%

84. Social Welfare
Health
Education
Justice
Agriculture 3%
3%
Enterprise
4%
Other
38%
15%
27%

85. Social Welfare
Health
Education
Justice 10%
Agriculture 3%
3%
Enterprise
4%
Other
38%
15%
27%

87. The Four year Plan.

88. 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP 1.75 3.25 3 2.75
Real GNP 1 2.5 2.5 2.5
Domestic
Consumption
Demand 0 1 1.5 1.75
Government -3 -2 -2.25 -2
Investment -6 5.25 5 5.25
Exports 5 5 4.25 4
Imports 2.75 3 3.25 3
BOP (%GNP) 0.25 1.5 2.5 3.5
HICP 0.75 1 1.75 1.75
GDP Deflator 0.75 1 1.25 1.5

89. % Change Investment
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
% Change Investment
-40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f

90. % Change Investment
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
% Change Investment
-40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f

91. 0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
Fin
lan
d9
1
No
rw Anglo
ay
9 1
Sw
ede
n 91
Tur
key
0 0
Jap
an
9 7
Ko
re a9
7
Ma
lay
Fiscal Costs of Banking Crises, % GDP
sia
91
Th
aila
n d9
7
Ur
ugu
ay
02
Ire
lan
d0
8

92. 0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
Fin
lan
d9
1
No
rw Anglo
ay
9 1
Sw
ede
n 91
Tur
key
0 0
Jap
an
9 7
Ko
re a9
7
Ma
lay
Fiscal Costs of Banking Crises, % GDP
sia
91
Th
aila
n d9
7
Ur
ugu
ay
02
Ire
lan
d0
8

93. Projected Assistance,
Bank
€bn
Anglo 29.28
AIB 7.48
BOI 3.75
Irish Nationwide 5.40
EBS 0.35
Total 46.26

95. The IMF.

96. €85bn
EU/IMF

97. €85bn
€35bn EU/IMF

98. €85bn
€35bn EU/IMF
€50bn

100. The Four year Plan won’t
work.

101. Message
Ireland’s GNP c. €130bn, Ireland’s GDP c.
160bn
Debt : GNP ratio c.140%
Growth rates: 0-2% in next 4 years
Ireland’s banking system liabilities: €440bn
Debt rates: 5.83% in next 4 years
Unsustainable debt implies eventual default/
restructuring

104. Reform.

106. Reform(s)
www.politicalreform.ie

107. Reform(s)
Publish full political financial accounts online, greater powers for
Standards Commission
www.politicalreform.ie

108. Reform(s)
Publish full political financial accounts online, greater powers for
Standards Commission
Reform committee system, repeal Abbeylara decision and give
committees renewed investigative powers.
www.politicalreform.ie

109. Reform(s)
Publish full political financial accounts online, greater powers for
Standards Commission
Reform committee system, repeal Abbeylara decision and give
committees renewed investigative powers.
Rebalance relationship between executive and legislature as was
intended in Article 28 of Constitution
www.politicalreform.ie

110. Reform(s)
Publish full political financial accounts online, greater powers for
Standards Commission
Reform committee system, repeal Abbeylara decision and give
committees renewed investigative powers.
Rebalance relationship between executive and legislature as was
intended in Article 28 of Constitution
Meaningful open government with stronger FOI legislation, new
whistleblower and lobbying legislation and public appointments
board.
www.politicalreform.ie

111. Reform(s)
www.politicalreform.ie

112. Reform(s)
Reform local government with revenue raising powers and
reform planning powers
www.politicalreform.ie

113. Reform(s)
Reform local government with revenue raising powers and
reform planning powers
Diverse representation in public life through a reformed Senand
which would encompass island of Ireland and diaspora in public
life
www.politicalreform.ie

114. Reform(s)
Reform local government with revenue raising powers and
reform planning powers
Diverse representation in public life through a reformed Senand
which would encompass island of Ireland and diaspora in public
life
Introduce gender quotas, lower voting age to 16, reform
decision making process
www.politicalreform.ie

115. Reform(s)
Reform local government with revenue raising powers and
reform planning powers
Diverse representation in public life through a reformed Senand
which would encompass island of Ireland and diaspora in public
life
Introduce gender quotas, lower voting age to 16, reform
decision making process
Change the electoral system
www.politicalreform.ie

116. Reform(s)
Reform local government with revenue raising powers and
reform planning powers
Diverse representation in public life through a reformed Senand
which would encompass island of Ireland and diaspora in public
life
Introduce gender quotas, lower voting age to 16, reform
decision making process
Change the electoral system
Definition of Republic in constitution and statement of values
www.politicalreform.ie

117. Reform(s)
Reform local government with revenue raising powers and
reform planning powers
Diverse representation in public life through a reformed Senand
which would encompass island of Ireland and diaspora in public
life
Introduce gender quotas, lower voting age to 16, reform
decision making process
Change the electoral system
Definition of Republic in constitution and statement of values
Citizens assembly to be implemented
www.politicalreform.ie