The Irish Economy: October 2009

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The Irish Economy: October 2009

  1. 1. Snapshot of the Irish Economy October 2009
  2. 2. The Sesame Street Introduction <ul><li>Today’s presentation is brought to you with the letters Y, C, I, G, X and M, some numbers and lots of pictures! </li></ul><ul><li>Y = C + I + G + (X – M) </li></ul>
  3. 3. Then and Now <ul><li>Standardised Unemployment Rate (September): 1984: 15.8% 2009: 12.9% </li></ul><ul><li>CPI Annual Inflation Rate (September): 1984: + 5.9% 2009: – 6.5% </li></ul><ul><li>Interest Rate (September): 1984: 13.00% (Central Bank Rediscount Rate) 2009: 1.00% (ECB Main Refinancing Rate) </li></ul><ul><li>Exchequer Deficit (%GDP): </li></ul><ul><li>1984: 10.50% 2009: 10.75% </li></ul>
  4. 4. Where Next? <ul><li>Davy Forecasts (Rossa White) </li></ul>% Change in Volume GDP Component 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Consumer Spending -1.0 -7.0 1.5 3.8 Investment -15.5 -27.0 -11.5 2.8 Government Spending 2.6 -1.0 -3.0 -1.5 Exports -1.0 -2.0 3.5 6.0 Imports -2.1 -7.5 1.4 4.9 GDP -3.0 -6.3 1.2 4.1 GNP -2.8 -9.6 0.5 3.9
  5. 5. ESRI Forecasts for 2010 <ul><li>Quarterly Economic Forecasts </li></ul>Real Annual Growth % GDP Component Spring 2009 Summer 2009 Autumn 2009 Consumer Spending -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 Investment -11.6 -17.2 -15.5 Government Spending -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 Exports -5.2 -1.4 1.1 Imports -1.1 -4.8 -1.2 GDP -1.2 -2.3 -1.1 GNP -1.4 -2.3 -1.7
  6. 7. Retail Sales Index (All Businesses)
  7. 9. Earnings
  8. 10. Savings Source: Central Bank
  9. 11. Borrowings Source: Central Bank
  10. 12. Unemployment Rates in Ireland
  11. 13. Inflation in Ireland
  12. 14. Investment
  13. 15. Investment
  14. 16. Government Balance
  15. 17. The Public Finances
  16. 18. The God That Failed
  17. 19. Tax Revenue (€000s) 2007 2008 2009 E Value Added Tax Income Tax Excise Stamps Corporation Tax Capital Gains Tax Customs Training & Employment Levy Unallocated 14,496,588 13,572,410 5,837,878 3,185,602 6,390,625 3,105,495 265,904 2,501 0 13,429,602 13,176,857 5,443,338 1,650,792 5,065,894 1,430,080 248,001 1,032 0 11,420,000 12,475,000 4,634,000 980,000 3,740,000 625,000 230,000 1,000 0 Total 47,249,352 40,777,196 34,400,000
  18. 20. Tax Revenue for Period Jan – Sept 2009, €000 Jan-Sept 2008 Jan-Sept 2009 Value Added Tax Income Tax Excise Stamps Corporation Tax Capital Gains Tax Customs Training & Employment Levy Unallocated 10,998,485 8,690,515 4,150,996 1,358,084 2,121,951 623,926 194,303 692 30,034 8,657,291 7,873,515 3,312,225 679,587 2,601,266 219,482 151,125 988 16,711 Total 28,478,147 23,705,608
  19. 21. Expenditure (€000s) Vote or Group of Votes 2007 2008 2009E Health & Children 12,448,835 13,745,317 13,426,037 Social & Family Affairs 8,180,934 9,399,098 10,915,679 Education & Science 8,443,974 9,031,516 8,900,030 Other 15,534,992 17,136,863 14,162,658 Total 44,608,735 49,312,794 47,404,404
  20. 22. National Debt
  21. 23. Balance of Trade
  22. 25. Balance of Payments

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