NewBase 17 April-2023 Energy News issue - 1611 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf

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NewBase Energy News 17 April 2023 No. 1611 Senior Editor Eng. Khaed Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
U.A.E: DEWA launches its 2nd nanosatellite DEWA SAT-2
WAM- Amjad Saleh
Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has successfully launched its second nanosatellite,
DEWA SAT-2, aboard SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California,
USA.
The launch of DEWA SAT-2 underlines DEWA’s leadership in using space technologies to improve
the operations, maintenance and planning of electricity and water networks. The nanosatellite was
designed and developed by Emiratis at DEWA’s Research and Development Centre, in
collaboration with NanoAvionics in Lithuania.
DEWA SAT-2, a 6U nanosatellite, features a high-resolution camera (4.7 metres) that will be used
for Earth observation missions. The high-resolution camera provides continuous line-scan imaging
in seven spectral bands from an approximately 500km orbit. The new satellite is also equipped with
infrared equipment to measure greenhouse gases.
Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of DEWA, said DEWA is keen to use the latest
technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, including the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial
Intelligence (AI) and blockchain in exchanging information through satellite communications and
earth observation technologies.
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

“DEWA’s Space-D programme, which was launched by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin
Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, in January 2021, aims to
improve the operations, maintenance and planning of DEWA’s networks through nanosatellites and
remote sensing technologies.
The programme also seeks to train Emiratis specialised in the use of space technologies in
electricity and water networks. Launching DEWA SAT-2, our second nanosatellite confirms that we
are moving steadily towards leadership in utilising space technologies to enhance the efficiency of
DEWA’s operations and providing electricity and water services according to the highest standards
of availability, reliability, efficiency and quality, in addition to transferring knowledge and expertise
and training our Emirati staff,” Al Tayer added.
Al Tayer noted that DEWA aims to use nanosatellite technology to support its cloud computing
network, thereby enhancing the digitisation of energy and water networks. The objective is to raise
the efficiency and effectiveness of planning, operation and preventive maintenance of the
production, transmission and distribution divisions, as well as smart grids, power stations, and EV
charging stations.
This approach is expected to reduce costs and improve the investment of DEWA’s assets.
Additionally, this will help develop use cases that contribute to upgrading the utility sector worldwide.
Waleed bin Salman, Executive Vice President of Business Development and Excellence at DEWA,
explained that the high imaging accuracy of DEWA SAT-2 will enable DEWA to improve the
operational performance of power generation and water desalination plants.
Multi-spectrum, high-resolution thermal imaging devices, such as those used on board spacecraft
that are specifically designed for use in electricity and water networks, will be deployed to detect
thermal fingerprints in high-voltage transmission lines, substations, buildings and solar power
stations.
The combined use of DEWA SAT-2 images and IoT measurements from DEWA SAT-1 will enable
DEWA to improve the operational performance of power generation and water desalination plants
by providing accurate estimates of seawater temperature, seawater salinity, detection of red-tide,
as well as fog monitoring and forecasting.

U.A.E: Adnoc L&S adds five new gas carriers to shipping fleet
The National + NewBase
Adnoc Logistics & Services, the shipping and maritime logistics unit of Adnoc, added
five new-build very large gas carriers (VLGC) to its fleet to meet the growing global
demand for gas.
The gas carriers were built at the Jiangnan shipyard in Shanghai, China, and will be
owned and operated by AW Shipping, an Adnoc L&S joint venture with Wanhua
Chemical Group, the company said in a statement on Thursday.
The new ships use LPG as their primary fuel source, making them among the lowest-emission vessels of
this type. Photo: Adnoc L&S/
The five VLGCs, named Al Ain, Zakher, Rabdan, Al Salam and Baynounah, each with
a capacity of 86,000 cubic metres to transport liquified petroleum gas (LPG), have
dual-fuel engine technology.
They use LPG as their primary fuel source, making them among the lowest-emission
vessels of this type, the statement said.
“The addition of these new-build, lower-emission vessels to Adnoc L&S’s growing fleet
of more than 800 owned, operated and chartered vessels, represents another
important milestone as we bolster our capacity to capitalise on growing global energy
The five vessels, each with a capacity of 86,000 cubic metres,
will be used to transport liquified petroleum gas

demand," said Capt Abdulkareem Al Masabi, chief executive of Adnoc L&S and
chairman of AW Shipping.
"Natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in the global energy landscape
and Adnoc L&S is expanding its gas fleet to serve customer demand, while reducing
the carbon intensity of our vessels.”
The demand for LPG, which is used mainly as a cooking fuel stored in cylinders for
stoves, as well as a propellant, refrigerant, as vehicle fuel and as feedstock for the
petrochemicals industry, has been rising worldwide.
It is expected to play a key role in helping the transition to clean energy, especially in
cooking, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. AW Shipping was
formed in 2020 to support a 10-year LPG supply contract signed in 2018 between
Adnoc and Wanhua.
The company will use the new ships to transport LPG cargoes sourced from Adnoc
and other global suppliers to Wanhua’s manufacturing bases in China and around the
world, the statement said.
"The AW Shipping JV has added great value to both Wanhua and Adnoc L&S by
optimising the supply chain," said Kou Guangwu, chief executive of Wanhua Chemical
Group.
Jiangnan Shipyard, meanwhile, which delivered the VLGCs, is also building liquefied
natural gas (LNG) carriers for Adnoc L&S, scheduled for delivery in 2025 and 2026.
Adnoc L&S is undertaking a global expansion programme, aimed at providing a
broader service to its customers while supporting and enabling the growth of Adnoc’s
upstream and downstream operations.
In July last year, Adnoc L&S bought Zakher Marine International, an Abu Dhabi
company that owns and operates offshore support vessels. In June, the company also
bought three new LNG ships to meet increasing global demand for the gas.

UAE: ADNOC Drilling secures $M412 Drilling Services Contract
Source: ADNOC Drilling
ADNOC Drilling Company has confirmed the award of a five-year contract for the provision
of Integrated Drilling Services (IDS) totaling $412 million from ADNOC Offshore commencing in the
second quarter of 2023.
 The award continues the delivery of material growth in ADNOC Drilling’s Oilfield Services
segment
 The contract will enable the efficient delivery of completion services at Upper Zakum field
and adds 20% to annual revenue compared with 2022
 Awards to ADNOC Drilling for Oilfield Services, including IDS, stand at a total of $5.1 billion
since January 1, 2022
ADNOC Drilling will provide IDS for the development of the Upper Zakum field, the largest producing
field in ADNOC’s offshore portfolio. The application of the services provided by ADNOC Drilling will
add to the efficiency of production at the project, deliver significant cost savings, and contribute to
ADNOC’s plans to responsibly accelerate production capacity growth as global demand for energy
continues to increase.
Abdulrahman Abdullah Al Seiari, Chief
Executive Officer of ADNOC Drilling,
commented: 'We are very pleased to
have been awarded this important
contract, which will contribute to the
effective development of the Upper
Zakum field and enable ADNOC to
realize accelerated production capacity
targets to responsibly supply energy to
a world which sees continuously rising
demand.
This contract award further
demonstrates the delivery of our
strategic objective to expand our Oilfield
Services (OFS) business as we
continue to work towards our goal of
further doubling OFS revenues by 2025.
This contract, alone, will add some 20% to our annual revenue compared with 2022. Our
comprehensive market-leading drilling and completion services offering improves operational
performance and efficiency, delivering considerable cost savings and reductions in well delivery
times for our customers.'
As a market leader in the region, ADNOC Drilling is committed to expanding its comprehensive suite
of services in the OFS division to enable the efficient and competitive delivery of start-to-finish
drilling and well completion, for the benefit of its customers. In 2022, ADNOC Drilling had 40
operational IDS rigs, with OFS revenue reaching $405 million, an increase of 23% on the previous
year. The Company has guided the market to expect the segment to generate $500 - $550 million
in revenue in 2023.
Previous IDS contract awards in 2022 include a $1.3 billion award for the Ghasha Mega-project,
$1.6 billion award for integrated drilling fluid services and a $777 million award for wireline and
perforation services.

U.S. electric capacity mix shifts from fossil fuels to renewables
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023)
The U.S. power grid nearly doubles in capacity from 2022 to 2050 to meet increasing demand for
electric power, and most newly built capacity will be from renewable energy technologies, according
to most cases in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023).
Declining capital costs for solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage, as well as government
subsidies such as those included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), result in renewables becoming
increasingly cost effective compared with the alternatives when building new power capacity.
Economic growth, paired with rising electrification in end-use sectors, results in stable growth in
U.S. electric power demand through 2050.
Note: ZTC=Zero-Carbon Technology Cost; other=geothermal, biomass, municipal waste, fuel cells,
hydroelectric, pumped hydro storage
In our AEO2023, we explore long-term energy trends in the United States and present an outlook
for energy markets through 2050. We use different scenarios, called cases, to understand how
varying assumptions affect energy trends. These cases include:
 The Reference case, which serves as a baseline, or benchmark, case. It reflects laws and regulations
adopted through mid-November 2022, including the IRA. It assumes capital costs for power
generating technologies decline over time from learning by doing as commercialization expands and
construction and manufacturing experience accelerates. It also assumes the U.S. GDP annual growth
rate is 1.9% over the projection period.

 The Low Zero-Carbon Technology Cost case, which assumes faster technology-cost declines for
zero-carbon technologies, resulting in about a 40% cost reduction by 2050 compared with the
Reference case. Zero-carbon technologies in AEO2023 include renewables, nuclear, and energy
storage.
 The High Zero-Carbon Technology Cost case, which assumes no technology-cost declines for zero-
carbon technologies, which maintain their 2022 costs through 2050.
 The Low Economic Growth case, which assumes the compound annual growth rate for U.S. GDP is
1.4%
 The High Economic Growth case, which assumes the compound annual growth rate for U.S. GDP is
2.3%
 The economic growth and zero-carbon technology cost combination cases, which simultaneously
vary high and low economic growth with high and low zero-carbon technology costs.
In the Reference case, we project a large increase in renewable capacity of about 380% from 2022
through 2050. By comparison, fossil fuel generating capacity, which includes coal and natural gas-
fired power plants, increases about 11%.
The economic growth and zero-carbon technology cost combination cases show the most extreme
outcomes for growth of renewable and fossil fuel generating capacity out of all AEO2023 cases.
The High Economic Growth and Low Zero-Carbon Technology Cost combination case has the
highest projected growth in renewable capacity, increasing nearly 600% between 2022 and 2050.
Even in the Low Economic Growth and High Zero-Carbon Technology Cost combination case,
which assumes the lowest growth in renewable technologies out of the AEO2023 cases, projected
growth in renewable capacity approaches 230%.
The projected outcomes for both fossil fuel and renewable power plants are sensitive to the
assumed cost of renewable technologies.
The projected outcomes for fossil fuel generating capacity also vary across AEO2023 cases. In the
High Economic Growth and High Zero-Carbon Technology Cost combination case, fossil fuel
capacity increases 36% between 2022 and 2050. In the Low Economic Growth and Low Zero-
Carbon Technology Cost combination case, fossil fuel capacity decreases by 14% because more
fossil fuel generators are retired than built over the projection period

Germany Retires Last Nuclear Plants in Hopes of Greener Pastures
Bloomberg + NewBase
At 10 p.m. on Saturday, the Isar-2 nuclear plant near Munich will begin winding down its power
generation in steps of 10 megawatts per minute.
After about 45 minutes, it will drop to 30% capacity and automatically sever from the national
electricity grid. The other two plants still in operation, Neckarwestheim-2 and Emsland, will by then
be in the midst of a similar process. By midnight, all three will be offline, ending Germany’s
tumultuous six-decade reliance on nuclear energy.
When the three plants, which collectively provided Germany with 6% of its power last year, finally
shut off, Europe’s largest economy will face an unprecedented challenge: securing its energy supply
without nuclear or Russian natural gas, and with renewables expanding at a slower pace than
needed.
The decision to phase out the emissions-free power source — first codified in a 2002 law and
finalized after the 2011 Fukushima disaster — also comes at a moment in which many countries
are moving in the opposite direction.
While Germans have historically been deeply opposed to nuclear energy, that has shifted in recent
years as it has come to be viewed as something like the least bad option in the transition to a green
economy. Critics worry that until Germany has sufficient clean-energy infrastructure in place, which
could still be years away, the country will draw even more heavily on polluting fuels like coal to
compensate for the loss.

Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg has criticized the move away from nuclear, and in
a survey conducted late last year, some 69% of the German public say they would support some
form of continued nuclear power use until renewables were able to replace it.
For a brief moment last year, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted Chancellor Olaf Scholz to
shatter many major taboos of post-World War II German politics, the idea that the country could
double down on its commitment to nuclear energy did not seem so far flung.
In a groundbreaking speech delivered three days after the war began, Scholz announced his intent
to massively increase military spending and break ties with Russia. With Europe’s peace and
stability at stake, even the country’s deep-rooted aversion to nuclear energy seemed up for debate.
But nothing came of that, and after scrambling late last year to secure a roughly 100-day extension
for sunsetting the nuclear plants, policymakers have shown no intention of reversing their decision.
The reasons are political and logistical. After nearly two decades on the sidelines, Germany’s Green
party, which sees nuclear opposition as the crux of its political identity, joined the federal government
in 2021 as a member of the ruling coalition. It was reluctant to agree to last year’s extension, and
has pushed hard to shut down the plants, claiming that the dangers they pose far outweigh the
advantages.
Moving away from the “high-risk form of energy” won’t threaten Germany’s energy supply,
Environmental Minister Steffi Lemke from the Green party said in an interview, adding that
eliminating the risk of “devastating environmental disasters” will ultimately make the country safer.
When the three plants shut down, it will represent the culmination of a decades-long process to
wean Germany off nuclear energy. At its peak in 2000, atomic power represented almost 30% of all

electricity generated in Germany. Shortly before their closure, that dropped to less than 4% — an
amount that Mario Ragwitz, director of the Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy
Infrastructures and Geothermal Systems, anticipates “is roughly equivalent to what will be added
next year in terms of solar and wind power.”
Yet that’s not certain to meet
Germany’s power needs. To
sidestep a possible electricity
shortfall, Germany may need
to import more nuclear power
from neighboring France. For
the coming winter, however,
Germany’s grid operators don’t
expect France to have enough
output for exports as the
country has been grappling for
more than a year with
extensive reactor repairs and
outages.
That may force Berlin to also
seek power from other
neighbors — or to repeat last
winter’s strategy of burning
more coal.
Compared to last year, said
Ragwitz, the country now has
“higher levels of gas storage,
more natural gas import
capacity, and additional coal-
fired power plants on the
market.”
Indeed, Germany was able to
construct several new liquefied
gas terminals within a year of
Russia’s invasion. But when it
comes to building new solar
and wind farms, companies
complain that there is still too much red tape.
The apparent trade-off of clean sources for energy security is one indication of how Germany is
struggling on multiple fronts to secure its emissions-free future. In addition to phasing out nuclear,
the Scholz government is also aiming to shut down coal plants by the end of the decade — 8 years
ahead of schedule — to cut carbon emissions, and has called for the construction of new gas-power
plants that can eventually be converted to hydrogen.
Germany isn’t the only country committed to walking away from nuclear — Italy gave up the
technology in 1990, and Lithuania recently struck a deal to dismantle its Soviet-era reactors, which
have sat idle for over a decade. But in many advanced economies, nuclear is experiencing a
resurgence.

On Monday, Finland will start regular power
production at Europe’s newest and biggest
reactor, the 1,600-megawatt Olkiluoto-3 unit,
after years of delays. France is planning to
build six new reactors and a dozen small
modular ones that will go online by 2050. The
UK has similar ambitions. And even in Japan,
after a decade of paralysis following nuclear
accident in Fukushima, the public is warming
up to the use of nuclear power. The Japanese
government wants to restart reactors that have
sat idle since the disaster, and to extend the
lifespan of existing units.
But one reason why many nuclear plants are
still running may simply be because it’s hard to
shut them down. When Germans wake up on Sunday in a country without nuclear energy, they will
be faced with another question — what to do with the plants themselves. Dismantling nuclear
infrastructure — and finding appropriate locations to store radioactive waste — is a complicated
process that can take decades to implement, and so far, there aren’t many successful examples.
One exception is Kahl, Germany’s first nuclear power plant, which was built on an industrial site
where lignite had been mined half a century earlier. The Bavaria-based plant was completely
dismantled in 2010 after 25 years in operation, yet the site is once again in the business of energy
generation: it now hosts companies that produce e-car batteries and components for charging
stations, and run solar panels on their roof.

NewBase April 17 -2023 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil holds gains on OPEC+ cuts, traders eye China recovery
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices edged down slightly on Monday, supported by OPEC+'s plans to cut more output, while
investors eyed Chinese economic data for signs of a demand recovery by the world's No. 2 oil
consumer.
Brent crude futures nudged 4 cents lower to $86.27 a barrel by 06.020 GMT, while U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude was at $82.47 a barrel, down 5 cents.
Both contracts notched their fourth weekly gains last week - the longest-such streak since mid-2022
- after the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast record demand in 2023 of 101.9 million
barrels per day (bpd), up 2 million bpd on last year.
However, the IEA warned in its monthly report that the output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers
risked exacerbating an oil supply deficit expected in the second half of the year and could hurt
consumers and a global economic recovery.
Oil price special
coverage

Rising costs for Middle East crude supplies, which meet more than half of Asia's demand, are
already squeezing refiners' margins, prompting them to secure supplies from other regions.
Refiners are also ramping up gasoline output ahead of peak summer demand, while cutting diesel
production amid worsening margins.
"While the flat price and time spreads have strengthened on the back of expectations of a tighter
market, demand concerns clearly remain," ING analysts said in a note.
"Weaker refinery margins remain a feature, with the weakness predominantly driven by middle
distillates. Stronger crude prices will not be helping margins for refiners either."
Meanwhile, oil exports from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan remained at a
standstill almost three weeks after an arbitration case ruled Ankara owed Baghdad compensation
for unauthorised exports.
Investors will be watching for the release of China's first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data
this week, which is expected to be positive for commodity prices, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng
said.
Earnings from U.S. companies could also provide clues for the Federal Reserve's policy path and
the dollar's trajectory, she added.
The greenback has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated
oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Traders are betting that the Fed will raise its lending rate in May by another quarter of a percentage
point and pushed out to late this year expectations of a rate cut, as typically occurs in a slowdown.
The market is pricing in a 78% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in May, with fewer than
60bps of cuts priced in by the end of the year, IG Analyst Tony Sycamore said. "(That) means some
of the supportive tailwinds for crude oil demand from expectations of Fed rate cuts are starting to
fade," he added.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –April -16 -2023
CLEAN ENERGY
IEA raises 2023 global oil demand outlook over China’s
economic rebound
Seban Scaria, ZAWYA
Demand for oil will climb by 2 mb/d globally in 2023 to a record 101.9 mb/d as China fully reopens
three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA)
said in its latest report.
The non-OECD nations will account for 87% of the growth and China alone will make up more than
half the global increase.
"While oil demand in developed nations has underwhelmed in recent months, slowed by warmer
weather and sluggish industrial activity, robust gains in China and other non-OECD countries are
providing a strong offset,” the IEA said in its report.

In Q1 2023, OECD oil demand fell 390 kb/d year-on-year, but a solid Chinese rebound lifted global
oil demand 810 kb/d above year-earlier levels to 100.4 mb/d, the agency noted.
China has reported a rebound in consumer spending, industrial output and investment in the first
two months of 2023 after coronavirus restrictions were removed.
According to several experts, China's growth momentum is expected to improve further in the
coming months, driven by consumer spending.
In its monthly oil market report, OPEC maintained its forecast that oil demand will rise by 2.32 million
barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3%, in 2023.
OPEC expects demand in the OECD countries to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-
OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d.
The surprise OPEC+ supply cuts announced on April 2 risk aggravating an expected oil supply
deficit in H2 2023 and boosting oil prices at a time of heightened economic uncertainty, even as
industrial activity slows in the world’s largest economies and production growth outside the alliance
appears robust, the agency noted.
The bloc's precautionary move prompted oil prices to rally towards $87 a barrel from below $80.
The oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for
a substantial supply deficit to emerge, but the OPEC's "latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains,
pushing both crude and product prices higher," the IEA said.
Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially
in emerging and developing economies, the agency warned.
Oil Market Report - April 2023
Overview

World oil demand will climb by 2 mb/d in 2023 to a record 101.9 mb/d. Reflecting the
widening disparity between regions, non-OECD countries, buoyed by a resurgent China,
will account for 90% of growth. OECD demand, dragged down by weak industrial activity
and warm weather, contracted by 390 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q23, its second consecutive quarter
of decline. Jet/kerosene accounts for 57% of 2023 gains.
 Extra cuts by OPEC+ will push world oil supply down 400 kb/d by end-2023. From
March-December, gains of 1 mb/d from non-OPEC+ fail to offset a 1.4 mb/d decline from
the producer bloc. For the year as a whole, global oil production growth slows to 1.2
mb/d versus 4.6 mb/d in 2022. Non-OPEC+, led by the US and Brazil, drives the 2023
expansion, rising 1.9 mb/d. OPEC+ is expected to drop by 760 kb/d.
 Global refining throughput is forecast to average 82 mb/d this year, 0.1 mb/d lower than
in last month's Report due to weaker 1Q23 data. Annual gains will double to 2.1 mb/d
from 1Q23 to 2Q23, as runs in the US normalise and with Chinese activity materially
higher than a weak 2Q22 baseline. On average, 2023 crude runs will approach pre-covid
levels but remain 0.3 mb/d below 2019 average throughputs.
 Russian oil exports in March soared to the highest since April 2020 thanks to surging
product flows that returned to levels last seen before Russia invaded Ukraine. Total oil
shipments rose by 0.6 mb/d to 8.1 mb/d, with products climbing 450 kb/d m-o-m to 3.1

mb/d. Estimated oil export revenues rebounded by $1 billion to $12.7 billion but were
43% lower than a year ago.
 Global inventories held largely steady in February after surging by 58 mb in the previous
month. Oil on water and non-OECD stocks fell by 11.5 mb and 2.1 mb, respectively, while
total OECD inventories rose by 8.8 mb. OECD commercial stocks built by 9.6 mb,
narrowing the deficit against the five-year average to 7.5 mb. Preliminary data for the
US, Europe and Japan show a hefty 38.9 mb decline in March.
 ICE Brent oil futures slumped to a 15-month low of $71/bbl in mid-March due to financial
market instability but then recovered as banking stress waned and expectations of
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year increased. Surprise OPEC+ production
cuts announced in early April added further momentum to the rebound. At the time of
writing, Brent futures traded at $87/bbl.
Highlights
Surprise OPEC+ supply cuts announced on 2 April risk aggravating an expected oil supply deficit
in 2H23 and boosting oil prices at a time of heightened economic uncertainty, even as industrial
activity slows in the world’s largest economies and production growth outside the alliance appears
robust. The bloc’s self-described “precautionary move” immediately triggered a $7/bbl jump in North
Sea Dated crude to $85/bbl, up nearly $15/bbl from March lows.
The apparent weakness in industrial activity is impacting gasoil demand, whereas the services
sector and personal consumption are driving gasoline and jet uptake. While gasoil cracks have
eased, those for gasoline continue to trend higher. Consumers confronted by inflated prices for
basic necessities will now have to spread their budgets even more thinly. This augurs badly for the
economic recovery and growth.
The latest OPEC+ voluntary curbs of 1.16 mb/d come on top of an announced 500 kb/d cut in
Russian output from March that has now been extended through the rest of the year, and a 2 mb/d
reduction in targets taking effect last November. While apparently a move to support declining prices
amid financial turmoil in mid-March, rising global oil stocks may have also contributed to the
decision. In January, OECD industry stocks surged by 53 mb to 2 830 mb, the highest since July
2021 and only 47 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data for February show further builds,
albeit at a much slower pace. By March, however, the trend was already turning, with OECD industry
stocks plunging by 39 mb – their biggest monthly decline in over a year.
While oil demand in developed nations has underwhelmed in recent months, slowed by warmer
weather and sluggish industrial activity, robust gains in China and other non-OECD countries are
providing a strong offset.
In 1Q23, OECD oil demand fell 390 kb/d y-o-y, but a solid Chinese rebound lifted global oil demand
810 kb/d above year-earlier levels to 100.4 mb/d. A much stronger increase of 2.7 mb/d is expected
through year-end, propelled by a continued recovery in China and international travel. For 2023 as
a whole,
world oil demand is forecast to rise by an average 2 mb/d, to 101.9 mb/d, with the non-OECD
accounting for 87% of the growth and China alone making up more than half the global increase.
Meeting those gains may prove challenging as the new OPEC+ cuts could reduce output by 1.4
mb/d from March through year-end, more than offsetting a 1 mb/d increase in non-OPEC+
production. Growth from the US shale patch, traditionally the most price-responsive source of more
output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs.

Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for
a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both
crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even
more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies.

NewBase Energy News 17 April 2023 - Issue No. 1611 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
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About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
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MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
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khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

NewBase 17 April-2023 Energy News issue - 1611 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf

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NewBase 17 April-2023 Energy News issue - 1611 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf