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NewBase Energy News 15 May 2023 No. 1620 Senior Editor Eng. Khaed Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE calls for higher decarbonisation investment by GCC countries
The National - Sunil Singh
GCC countries should allocate more capital to their energy transition and decarbonisation strategies
to bolster climate action and sustainable development, the UAE's Minister of Industry and Advanced
Technology has said.
Addressing the GCC Industrial Co-operation Committee and GCC Ministerial Committee for
Standardisation meetings in Muscat on Thursday, Dr Sultan Al Jaber said these investments would
lay the groundwork for more sustainable economic development in vital sectors, including industry.
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, and Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi,
Minister of State for Foreign Trade, at the meetings in Muscat. Photo: Ministry of Industry and
Advanced Technology
The UAE has developed a pioneering model to strengthen economic and developmental
partnerships and engage the private sector in sustainable growth, he added. Watch: Dr Sultan Al
Jaber says this is the decade to provide clean energy the world needs
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/
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Dr Sultan Al Jaber says this is the decade to provide clean energy the world needs “As the UAE
prepares to host Cop28, we stress the importance of fraternal co-operation to bolster climate action,”
said Dr Al Jaber, who is also President-designate of the Cop28 summit that will be held in Dubai
from November 30 to December 12.
“It is critical that countries in the Gulf work together to increase investments in the energy transition
and in decarbonisation.” Dr Al Jaber led a high-level UAE delegation at the meetings in Muscat,
which were attended by GCC ministers of industry and trade.
Members of the delegation included Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi, Minister of State for Foreign Trade,
Mohammed Al Dhaheri, UAE ambassador to Oman, Omar Al Suwaidi, undersecretary in the
Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology, and Abdulla Alsaleh, undersecretary in the Ministry
of Economy, as well as officials and executives from government and private companies.
The 50th meeting of the Industrial Co-operation Committee and the fifth meeting of the Ministerial
Committee for Standardisation addressed topics related to enhancing co-operation in industry,
standards and metrology, and plans to boost collaboration among member states.
Oman is currently president of the GCC Council.
Dr Al Jaber underlined the UAE’s commitment to strengthening relations and co-operation with GCC
countries to boost investment and promote sustainable economic growth.
The meetings reaffirm the deep relations among the GCC countries, especially in the industrial
sector, which plays an important role in sustainable economic growth within the Gulf region, he said.
“The GCC represents a model for multinational co-operation that achieves effective sustainable
economic development.” Dr Sultan Al Jaber has previously called for developing nations to be
given access to funding to ensure they are not priced out of pursuing climate goals.
Early this month, speaking at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin, he said the Cop28 summit
should deliver an action plan that engages the public and private sector to achieve transformational
results.
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U.A.E: Adnoc L&S and SeaOwl partner to develop unmanned
remotely operated vessels
ADNOC + The National + NewBase
Adnoc Logistics & Services, a unit of Abu Dhabi's state oil company, has partnered with French
marine and energy services firm SeaOwl to develop unmanned remotely operated vessels as part
of its sustainability efforts.
The vessels will be designed to reduce up to 30 per cent of carbon emissions, with its smart
automation systems capable of optimising routes, further contributing to Adnoc L&S's
decarbonisation strategy, the company said.
Abdulkareem Al Masabi, chief executive of Adnoc Logistics & Services, right, and Xavier Genin,
chief executive of SeaOwl, during the signing ceremony for the development of the vessels. Photo:
Adnoc L&S
The agreement was signed by Abdulkareem Al Masabi, chief executive of Adnoc L&S, and Xavier
Genin, chief executive of Paris-based SeaOwl, on the sidelines of the UAE Climate Tech conference
in Abu Dhabi on Thursday.
The vessels are also meant to improve safety and reduce operational costs, since the vessels will
be able to operate in harsher conditions without having to expose seafarers to risks.
The move is in line with the objectives of the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 strategic initiative and Abu
Dhabi National Oil Company's 2030 Sustainability Agenda.
“A strategic commitment to sustainability and innovation plays a crucial role in Adnoc L&S’s ability
to serve its customers,” Mr Al Masabi said.
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“The vessel is another example of this commitment as we leverage the latest technology to optimise
our maritime operations, reduce our carbon footprint and improve safety while increasing efficiency.”
The UAE is taking the lead regionally and stepping up efforts to hit its target to reach net zero
emissions by 2050 through a number of sweeping reforms and programmes.
Companies in the Emirates are doing their part by integrating more sustainability-focused plans into
their operations to streamline their operations with national goals. The partnership between the two
companies is expected to bring a “new era of sustainable logistics operations through digital
automatisation”, Mr Genin said.
“This project will create strong ties with the UAE industrial landscape, as we plan to engage many
other UAE players in this exciting journey.” A strategic commitment to sustainability and innovation
plays a crucial role in Adnoc L&S’s ability to serve its customers ,Abdulkareem Al Masabi, chief
executive of Adnoc L&S
Upon construction, the ROVs will join Adnoc L&S's large and diverse fleet of advanced vessels at
its 1.5 million square metre logistics base in Abu Dhabi.
Last month, the company added five new-build very large gas carriers to its fleet to meet the growing
global demand for gas. On Wednesday, Adnoc L&S announced plans to list 1.1 billion shares,
equivalent to 15 per cent, on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, marking the second initial public
offering of one of its businesses this year, following the listing of Adnoc Gas in March.
Adnoc L&S aims to have a growth capital expenditure of $4 billion to $5 billion in the medium term
to expand the scope of services provided to companies in the Adnoc group.
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U.K ‘s Wind Power is largest source of electricity in 1st quarter
CNBC - Anmar Frangoul
Wind power was Britain’s biggest source of electricity in the first quarter of 2023, overtaking natural
gas and highlighting the increasingly important role renewables are set to play in the years ahead.
According to researchers at Imperial College London, wind turbines provided 32.4% of Britain’s
electricity in the first three months of the year. Gas, a fossil fuel, was responsible for 31.7% of the
electricity fuel mix.
The Gwynt y Mor offshore wind farm, in waters off the coast of Wales. The U.K. is home to a mature offshore wind sector.
The results were made public prior to the publication of Drax Electric Insights, an independent report
put together by a team at Imperial.
In a statement Wednesday Drax, an energy firm, said it was the first time wind had “provided the
largest share of power in any quarter in the history of the country’s electricity grid.”
Other sources in the mix included:
 Imports (12.6%)
 Nuclear (12.5%)
 Biomass (5.7%)
 Solar (2.3%)
 Hydro (1.5%)
 Coal (1.3%)
In its statement, Drax said wind-based output was 3% higher compared to the first quarter of 2022.
Gas, by contrast, declined by 5%.
According to researchers at Imperial College London, wind turbines provided
32.4% of Britain’s electricity in the first three months of the year.
Gas, a fossil fuel, was responsible for 31.7% of the electricity fuel mix.
Energy firm Drax says it’s the first time wind has “provided the largest share
of power in any quarter in the history of the country’s electricity grid.”
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Wind turbines, according to the analysis, produced 24 terawatt hours of electricity. This,
Wednesday’s announcement said, would be enough to charge over 300 million Tesla Model Ys.
“The renewable power revolution has transformed how Britain gets its electricity, making our power
grid cleaner and greener,” Imperial College London’s Iain Staffell, lead author of Drax Electric
Insights series, said.
“There are still many hurdles to reaching a completely fossil fuel-free grid, but wind out supplying
gas for the first time is a genuine milestone event,” he went on to state.
The U.K. is home to a mature offshore wind sector that looks set to expand in the coming years,
with authorities aiming for as much as 50 gigawatts of capacity by 2030.
Major offshore wind farms include Hornsea 2, a 165-turbine facility that’s been described by Danish
energy firm Orsted as the “world’s biggest offshore wind farm.”
Hornsea 2, which is now fully operational, has a capacity of more than 1.3 gigawatts, but other
projects off the U.K.’s coast are set to be even bigger.
Situated in waters off northeast England, in the North Sea, the Dogger Bank Wind Farm will have a
total capacity of 3.6 GW once fully up and running.
Development of the project is taking place in three phases, with those behind it saying it will be able
to power 6 million U.K. homes. A fourth phase of the wind farm, known as Dogger Bank D, has also
been proposed.
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China’s Rising Emissions May Soon Be Eclipsed by Clean Power Push
Bloomberg
China’s post-Covid rebound is boosting its world-leading power emissions this year, but rapid
deployment of clean technology means they could soon peak, according to a new report.
Emissions grew 4% in the first quarter of this year and are likely to rise to a record high this year,
according to an analysis by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for Carbon Brief. At the
same time, wind, solar and nuclear power gro wth is accelerating, bringing the country near the
tipping point where clean energy can meet all new demand and start putting fossil fuel use into long-
term decline.
“Beyond 2023, a continued rapid expansion of low-carbon energy could enable emissions to peak
and enter into a structural decline, once the post-Covid recovery has played out,” CREA analysts
Lauri Myllyvirta and Qi Qin said in the report. China’s official stance on peaking emissions is just
that it will do so before 2030.
The report highlights China’s two-pronged approach to energy as it tries to balance current
economic and security needs with its desire to reach net zero emissions by 2060. Chinese firms are
investing massively in new coal mines and power plants, with plans to shift the fuel to a backup
source as intermittent wind and solar become dominant.
This year, China’s economic rebound, infrastructure stimulus and weak hydropower generation
have spurred more consumption of oil, coal and gas, according to CREA. Meanwhile, solar and
wind installations both hit records for the first quarter, and the country is speeding up approvals and
construction of nuclear power plants.
In a report last month, researchers from think tank Ember also said China is getting closer to meeting
new power demand with additional low carbon electricity rather than coal. The country’s ability to
do so could have global implications.
“China is the world’s biggest coal power country but also the leader in absolute wind and solar
generation,” analyst Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka said in the report. “Whether peaking fossil
generation globally happens in 2023 is largely down to China.”
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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NewBase May 15 -2023 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil falls as economic concerns offset prospect of tighter supplies
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices slipped on Monday as concerns about fuel demand in top global oil consumers United
States and China offset bullish sentiment about tightening supplies from any OPEC+ cuts and a
resumption in U.S. buying for res erves.
Brent crude futures fell 64 cents, or 0.86%, to $73.53 a barrel by 0548 GMT while U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude was at $69.57 a barrel, down 47 cents, or 0.68%.
Last week, both benchmarks fell for a fourth consecutive week, the longest streak of weekly declines
since September 2022, over concern the United States could enter a recession on "significant risk"
of a historic default within the first two weeks of June.
Investors sought safe havens such as the U.S. dollar, strengthening the currency and making dollar-
denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
"Oil prices are still under pressure on sluggish demand outlooks as China’s economic reopening
progress seems bumpy," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said, adding that the U.S. banking rout
has also caused market jitters.
Investors will scour China's slew of economic data on industrial output, fixed assets investment and
retail sales in the week ahead for signs of oil demand improvement, she said.
Oil price special
coverage
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"With the uneven re-opening in China and concerns that the U.S is facing a growth slowdown at a
time when the X-date for the debt ceiling is rapidly approaching, topped off by a rally in the U.S
dollar, market sentiment towards crude oil will remain tepid at best," IG analyst Tony Sycamore said.
Still, global crude supplies could tighten in the second half as the OPEC+ grouping, the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, is making additional output
cuts that are reducing sour crude availability.
The group announced in April that some members will cut output further by around 1.16 million
barrels per day, bringing the total volume of cuts to 3.66 million bpd, according to Reuters
calculations.
However, Iraq does not expect OPEC+ to make further cuts to oil output at its next meeting in June,
its oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said.
The U.S. could start repurchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after completing a
congressionally mandated sale in June, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers on
Thursday.
This announcement was followed by a weekly report by energy services firm Baker Hughes
Co (BKR.O) which showed U.S. oil rigs fell by two to 586 this week, their lowest since June 2022,
while gas rigs plunged by 16 to 141.
Meanwhile, leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations could announce new measures at their May
19-21 meetings that target sanctions evasion involving third countries, said officials with direct
knowledge of the discussions.
The tightening of sanctions will also seek to undermine Russia's future energy production and curb
trade that supports the Russian military, the people said.
India and China, the world's No. 3 and No. 1 crude importers, respectively, have been the key
buyers of Russian crude since the European Union embargo started in December.
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Gas Drilling Collapses in US at Fastest Rate in Seven Years
The US natural gas industry is pulling back on exploration at the fastest pace in seven
years amid tumbling prices for the heating and power plant fuel.
Rigs searching for natural gas declined by 16 to 141 this week, according to data released Friday
by Baker Hughes Co. The 10% drop is the sharpest weekly pullback since February 2016.
Some of the world’s biggest contractors have been predicting a slowdown in gas drilling over the
past month. Gas prices have plummeted about 75% since reaching a peak last August amid lower
demand and constrained export capacity. Gas futures climbed Friday after the rigs data was
released. Prices jumped as much as 6.6%.
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European Gas Tumbles in Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2020
European natural gas dropped on Friday in its longest run of weekly declines in more than three
years, as demand remains muted even with the fuel becoming increasingly more economic than
coal for power generation.
(Bloomberg) — European natural gas dropped on Friday in its longest run of weekly declines in
more than three years, as demand remains muted even with the fuel becoming increasingly more
economic than coal for power generation.
Benchmark futures tumbled on Friday, ending a six consecutive week with a loss and extending this
year’s slump to more than 55%. While cheaper gas has opened the door for increased switching
from coal in power generation, consumption remains weak as the region recuperates from last
year’s energy-price shocks.
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“Due to the slow recovery of industry, overall electricity demand still remains very low,” said Florian
Rothenberg, an analyst at commodities consultancy ICIS. Plus, May is always a strong month for
renewable generation, which for the time being is covering about 51% of Europe’s power mix, he
said.
Traders will be closely watching how the situation evolves in the coming months. High fuel stockpiles
and ample supplies of liquefied natural gas have helped to keep a lid on prices. But weather and
climate issues remain a persistent factor. Last summer, Europe faced abnormal heat and drought
that affected hydro power and some nuclear plants, bolstering the use of gas.
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For now, the market “is calm due to strong supply, and it will likely take a heat wave either in Europe
or Asia to change the picture,” analysts at trading firm Energi Danmark A/S said in a note.
May Data
Combined gas-fired power generation in key European Union members has moved closer to
seasonal norms in recent days — after being far below that level in April — while coal burn dropped,
according to data from grid group ENTSO-E, compiled by Bloomberg.
“May will be the first full month where gas is much cheaper than coal, maybe we see stronger signs
of switching,” said Fabian Ronningen, a power analyst at Rystad Energy AS.
Dutch front-month gas, Europe’s benchmark, traded 6.3% lower at €32.80 per megawatt-hour by
5:08 p.m. in Amsterdam, the lowest level since July 2021. The UK equivalent contract dropped
5.6%. German power prices for next month also slipped.
To be sure, the spark and dark spreads — which measure the profitability of running gas- and coal-
fired plants — still favor coal for the upcoming heating season and into next year, albeit at much
lower margins than in 2022.
In the longer term, all thermal power plants will be under “significant downward pressure” across
Europe given increasing output from renewables, said Emma Champion, head of regional energy
transitions at BloombergNEF. “This trend outstrips the upside gas plants can capture even with
improved fuel switching economics vs coal.”
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NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –May -15 -2023
CLEAN ENERGY
U.S.A: EIA projects U.S coal usage & Co2 emissions will
decrease in the Annual Energy Outlook 2023
Data source: U.S. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023)
The EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023) projects that U.S. coal-fired generating capacity
will drop below half of 2022 levels by 2050.
In a scenario assuming higher zero-carbon technology costs than in eia base case, called the
Reference case, eia project coal-fired capacity drops 52% to 97 gigawatts (GW) by 2050. In the
Reference case, coal-fired capacity falls 64% to 73 GW by 2050. In another scenario where eia
assume lower zero-carbon technology costs than in the Reference case, eia project coal-fired
capacity falls 88% to 23 GW by midcentury.
In the eia AEO2023, eia explore long-term energy trends in the United States and present an outlook
for energy markets through 2050. Eia use different scenarios, called cases, to understand how
varying assumptions affect energy trends.
In the High Zero-Carbon Technology Cost (High ZTC) case, eia assume technology costs for zero-
carbon resources such as renewables, nuclear, and battery storage will stay flat at their 2022 levels
through 2050. This assumption results in less retirement of coal-fired generating capacity. In the
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Low Zero-Carbon Technology Cost (Low ZTC) case, eia assumee the cost of zero-carbon
technologies declines by about 40% by 2050 compared with the Reference case.
All AEO2023 cases, including the Reference, Low ZTC, and High ZTC cases, reflect laws and
regulations adopted through mid-November, including the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which
provides tax credits for zero-emission technologies that further reduce the cost of resources such
as solar and wind.
The 52% to 88% drop in total coal-fired capacity includes about 99 GW to 159 GW of retiring coal-
fired capacity and a small amount of coal-fired capacity projected to be converted to natural gas-
fired capacity.
Of the retirements, 61 GW come from coal-fired plants that owners and operators have already
announced plans to retire. Various factors such as an aging coal fleet, environmental regulations,
and competition from natural gas-fired, solar, and wind plants have contributed to the declining
economics of coal-fired capacity.
Note: Solar generation excludes off-grid photovoltaics.
Capacity is the maximum electric output a generator can produce under specific conditions. The
generation, or electricity produced over time, from wind and solar depends on the availability of
sunshine or wind.
Although eia projects the combined capacity from solar and wind is more than three times higher
by 2050 from 2022, fossil fuel and nuclear plants, which are available to operate around the clock,
still supply a portion of projected generation.
In the High ZTC case, coal produces 8% of U.S. electricity generation in 2050 compared with a
combined 40% from solar and wind, 31% from natural gas, and 13% from nuclear.
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In the Reference case, the combined share from
solar and wind grows to 55% of total generation
by 2050 with smaller shares of 5% from coal,
22% from natural gas, and 11% from nuclear. In
the Low ZTC case, solar and wind generate
69% of electricity in 2050 compared with only
1% from coal, 11% from natural gas, and 12%
from nuclear.
The coal-fired generation in all three cases
comes from the newer, more efficient coal-fired
power plants that will remain online because
they can provide lower-cost, dispatchable
power to the grid.
By 2030, energy-related CO2 emissions fall 25% to 38% below 2005 levels, depending on case
assumptions
Under the Paris Agreement, the United States set a goal to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas
emissions by 50% to 52% of 2005 levels by 2030. We only consider energy-related CO2 emissions,
which does not cover the full NDC scope.
Eia project lower U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions in 2030 relative to 2005 in the AEO2023
Reference case and all side cases . CO2 emissions are most sensitive to economic growth and
assumptions related to the cost of zero-carbon generation technology.
Combinations of these two sets of assumptions form the upper and lower bounds of projected
CO2 emissions. Emissions decrease by 25% in 2030 relative to 2005 under the combined high
economic growth and high zero-carbon technology cost assumptions and by as much as 38% under
low economic growth and low zero-carbon technology cost assumptions.
Both of these cases hinge on specific assumptions regarding the relationship between economic
growth and zero-carbon technology development.2 In the High Economic Growth case, emissions
fall initially and then begin to increase again in 2040 as industrial activity and travel (measured in
vehicle miles traveled) increase, surpassing emissions reductions from the electric power sector.
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The largest variations in projected U.S. CO2 emissions across cases occur in the electric power,
transportation, and industrial sectors. Although economic growth assumptions affect consumption
and, in turn, projected CO2 emissions in all sectors, different case-specific assumptions affect
sectors differently.
For example, emissions from the electric power sector are particularly responsive to assumptions
about the cost of zero-carbon technologies, and transportation sector emissions are sensitive to
assumptions about fossil fuel supply and cost, particularly oil and petroleum products.
The eia projects that renewable power capacity will increase in all regions of the United States in all
AEO2023 cases, although regional resource availability results in varying renewable resource mixes
across regions .
Across all cases, between 40%-60% of the renewable power capacity in the Mid-Continent region
in 2050 comes from wind, and the Southeast and the region managed by the California Independent
System Operator (CAISO) have large shares of solar and a small amount of wind power capacity in
all cases.
Once built and when the resource is available, wind and solar generation outcompete other
technologies for system dispatch because they have zero fuel costs. Across all AEO2023 cases,
some renewable generation is left unused and curtailed, typically midday when solar generation can
exceed demand in some regions and seasons.
Battery capacity is built in all cases to store and dispatch some of this otherwise unused generation
in later hours, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel capacity, such as natural gas-fired peaking units or
load-following combined-cycle units .
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Battery storage is also used to replace natural gas-fired capacity to provide reserve capacity. In the
Reference case in 2050, 160 gigawatts (GW) of standalone battery storage capacity will be
deployed, and deployment varies between 40 GW and 260 GW in the other cases.
U.S. energy consumption increases through 2050, and electricity plays an
increasingly large role
Total energy consumption, including electricity use and electricity-related losses, increases by as
much as 15% from 2022 to 2050 across the AEO2023 Reference case and side cases.
U.S. energy consumption increases in many end-use sectors across all AEO2023 cases. Total
energy consumption, including electricity use and electricity-related losses, increases by as much
as 15% from 2022 to 2050 across the AEO2023 Reference case and side cases.
The largest increases, in percentage terms, are in the industrial sector where energy consumption
increases as much as 32% and in the transportation sector where energy consumption increases
as much as 8%. Energy consumption in the residential and commercial sectors are the least
sensitive to changes in assumptions across cases.
In addition to macroeconomic growth assumptions, which affect energy consumption in all sectors,
many sectors are also highly responsive to zero-carbon technology cost assumptions. Increasing
energy consumption, improving end-use and electric power sector technology and efficiency, and
declining costs for zero-carbon generation technologies, which, in turn, leads to cheaper electricity,
all lead to increased electrification in the end-use sectors.
Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
The share of electricity in the residential and transportation sectors increase the most as demand
for space cooling increases and electric vehicles gain a larger market share. The residential sector
purchased 5.1 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of electricity in 2022, and residential
consumption of purchased electricity increases between about 14% and 22% from 2022 to 2050
across all cases, reaching between 5.9 and 6.3 quads.
Electricity purchased for transportation reaches between about 0.6 quads and 1.3 quads in 2050,
from 0.1 quads of purchased electricity in 2022, an increase of between 892% and 2,038% across
all cases. Electricity purchased in the industrial sector is most influenced by economic growth
assumptions, increasing by about 3%, from 3.5 quads in 2022 to about 3.6 quads in 2050 in low
economic growth cases and by about 36% to 38%, to about 4.7 quads, in high economic growth
cases.
Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
NewBase Energy News 15-May 2023 - Issue No. 1620 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.
Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21

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NewBase 15 May-2023 Energy News issue - 1620 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf

  • 1. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 15 May 2023 No. 1620 Senior Editor Eng. Khaed Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE calls for higher decarbonisation investment by GCC countries The National - Sunil Singh GCC countries should allocate more capital to their energy transition and decarbonisation strategies to bolster climate action and sustainable development, the UAE's Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology has said. Addressing the GCC Industrial Co-operation Committee and GCC Ministerial Committee for Standardisation meetings in Muscat on Thursday, Dr Sultan Al Jaber said these investments would lay the groundwork for more sustainable economic development in vital sectors, including industry. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, and Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi, Minister of State for Foreign Trade, at the meetings in Muscat. Photo: Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology The UAE has developed a pioneering model to strengthen economic and developmental partnerships and engage the private sector in sustainable growth, he added. Watch: Dr Sultan Al Jaber says this is the decade to provide clean energy the world needs ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/
  • 2. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Dr Sultan Al Jaber says this is the decade to provide clean energy the world needs “As the UAE prepares to host Cop28, we stress the importance of fraternal co-operation to bolster climate action,” said Dr Al Jaber, who is also President-designate of the Cop28 summit that will be held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12. “It is critical that countries in the Gulf work together to increase investments in the energy transition and in decarbonisation.” Dr Al Jaber led a high-level UAE delegation at the meetings in Muscat, which were attended by GCC ministers of industry and trade. Members of the delegation included Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi, Minister of State for Foreign Trade, Mohammed Al Dhaheri, UAE ambassador to Oman, Omar Al Suwaidi, undersecretary in the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology, and Abdulla Alsaleh, undersecretary in the Ministry of Economy, as well as officials and executives from government and private companies. The 50th meeting of the Industrial Co-operation Committee and the fifth meeting of the Ministerial Committee for Standardisation addressed topics related to enhancing co-operation in industry, standards and metrology, and plans to boost collaboration among member states. Oman is currently president of the GCC Council. Dr Al Jaber underlined the UAE’s commitment to strengthening relations and co-operation with GCC countries to boost investment and promote sustainable economic growth. The meetings reaffirm the deep relations among the GCC countries, especially in the industrial sector, which plays an important role in sustainable economic growth within the Gulf region, he said. “The GCC represents a model for multinational co-operation that achieves effective sustainable economic development.” Dr Sultan Al Jaber has previously called for developing nations to be given access to funding to ensure they are not priced out of pursuing climate goals. Early this month, speaking at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin, he said the Cop28 summit should deliver an action plan that engages the public and private sector to achieve transformational results.
  • 3. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 U.A.E: Adnoc L&S and SeaOwl partner to develop unmanned remotely operated vessels ADNOC + The National + NewBase Adnoc Logistics & Services, a unit of Abu Dhabi's state oil company, has partnered with French marine and energy services firm SeaOwl to develop unmanned remotely operated vessels as part of its sustainability efforts. The vessels will be designed to reduce up to 30 per cent of carbon emissions, with its smart automation systems capable of optimising routes, further contributing to Adnoc L&S's decarbonisation strategy, the company said. Abdulkareem Al Masabi, chief executive of Adnoc Logistics & Services, right, and Xavier Genin, chief executive of SeaOwl, during the signing ceremony for the development of the vessels. Photo: Adnoc L&S The agreement was signed by Abdulkareem Al Masabi, chief executive of Adnoc L&S, and Xavier Genin, chief executive of Paris-based SeaOwl, on the sidelines of the UAE Climate Tech conference in Abu Dhabi on Thursday. The vessels are also meant to improve safety and reduce operational costs, since the vessels will be able to operate in harsher conditions without having to expose seafarers to risks. The move is in line with the objectives of the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 strategic initiative and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's 2030 Sustainability Agenda. “A strategic commitment to sustainability and innovation plays a crucial role in Adnoc L&S’s ability to serve its customers,” Mr Al Masabi said.
  • 4. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 “The vessel is another example of this commitment as we leverage the latest technology to optimise our maritime operations, reduce our carbon footprint and improve safety while increasing efficiency.” The UAE is taking the lead regionally and stepping up efforts to hit its target to reach net zero emissions by 2050 through a number of sweeping reforms and programmes. Companies in the Emirates are doing their part by integrating more sustainability-focused plans into their operations to streamline their operations with national goals. The partnership between the two companies is expected to bring a “new era of sustainable logistics operations through digital automatisation”, Mr Genin said. “This project will create strong ties with the UAE industrial landscape, as we plan to engage many other UAE players in this exciting journey.” A strategic commitment to sustainability and innovation plays a crucial role in Adnoc L&S’s ability to serve its customers ,Abdulkareem Al Masabi, chief executive of Adnoc L&S Upon construction, the ROVs will join Adnoc L&S's large and diverse fleet of advanced vessels at its 1.5 million square metre logistics base in Abu Dhabi. Last month, the company added five new-build very large gas carriers to its fleet to meet the growing global demand for gas. On Wednesday, Adnoc L&S announced plans to list 1.1 billion shares, equivalent to 15 per cent, on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, marking the second initial public offering of one of its businesses this year, following the listing of Adnoc Gas in March. Adnoc L&S aims to have a growth capital expenditure of $4 billion to $5 billion in the medium term to expand the scope of services provided to companies in the Adnoc group.
  • 5. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 U.K ‘s Wind Power is largest source of electricity in 1st quarter CNBC - Anmar Frangoul Wind power was Britain’s biggest source of electricity in the first quarter of 2023, overtaking natural gas and highlighting the increasingly important role renewables are set to play in the years ahead. According to researchers at Imperial College London, wind turbines provided 32.4% of Britain’s electricity in the first three months of the year. Gas, a fossil fuel, was responsible for 31.7% of the electricity fuel mix. The Gwynt y Mor offshore wind farm, in waters off the coast of Wales. The U.K. is home to a mature offshore wind sector. The results were made public prior to the publication of Drax Electric Insights, an independent report put together by a team at Imperial. In a statement Wednesday Drax, an energy firm, said it was the first time wind had “provided the largest share of power in any quarter in the history of the country’s electricity grid.” Other sources in the mix included:  Imports (12.6%)  Nuclear (12.5%)  Biomass (5.7%)  Solar (2.3%)  Hydro (1.5%)  Coal (1.3%) In its statement, Drax said wind-based output was 3% higher compared to the first quarter of 2022. Gas, by contrast, declined by 5%. According to researchers at Imperial College London, wind turbines provided 32.4% of Britain’s electricity in the first three months of the year. Gas, a fossil fuel, was responsible for 31.7% of the electricity fuel mix. Energy firm Drax says it’s the first time wind has “provided the largest share of power in any quarter in the history of the country’s electricity grid.”
  • 6. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Wind turbines, according to the analysis, produced 24 terawatt hours of electricity. This, Wednesday’s announcement said, would be enough to charge over 300 million Tesla Model Ys. “The renewable power revolution has transformed how Britain gets its electricity, making our power grid cleaner and greener,” Imperial College London’s Iain Staffell, lead author of Drax Electric Insights series, said. “There are still many hurdles to reaching a completely fossil fuel-free grid, but wind out supplying gas for the first time is a genuine milestone event,” he went on to state. The U.K. is home to a mature offshore wind sector that looks set to expand in the coming years, with authorities aiming for as much as 50 gigawatts of capacity by 2030. Major offshore wind farms include Hornsea 2, a 165-turbine facility that’s been described by Danish energy firm Orsted as the “world’s biggest offshore wind farm.” Hornsea 2, which is now fully operational, has a capacity of more than 1.3 gigawatts, but other projects off the U.K.’s coast are set to be even bigger. Situated in waters off northeast England, in the North Sea, the Dogger Bank Wind Farm will have a total capacity of 3.6 GW once fully up and running. Development of the project is taking place in three phases, with those behind it saying it will be able to power 6 million U.K. homes. A fourth phase of the wind farm, known as Dogger Bank D, has also been proposed.
  • 7. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 China’s Rising Emissions May Soon Be Eclipsed by Clean Power Push Bloomberg China’s post-Covid rebound is boosting its world-leading power emissions this year, but rapid deployment of clean technology means they could soon peak, according to a new report. Emissions grew 4% in the first quarter of this year and are likely to rise to a record high this year, according to an analysis by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for Carbon Brief. At the same time, wind, solar and nuclear power gro wth is accelerating, bringing the country near the tipping point where clean energy can meet all new demand and start putting fossil fuel use into long- term decline. “Beyond 2023, a continued rapid expansion of low-carbon energy could enable emissions to peak and enter into a structural decline, once the post-Covid recovery has played out,” CREA analysts Lauri Myllyvirta and Qi Qin said in the report. China’s official stance on peaking emissions is just that it will do so before 2030. The report highlights China’s two-pronged approach to energy as it tries to balance current economic and security needs with its desire to reach net zero emissions by 2060. Chinese firms are investing massively in new coal mines and power plants, with plans to shift the fuel to a backup source as intermittent wind and solar become dominant. This year, China’s economic rebound, infrastructure stimulus and weak hydropower generation have spurred more consumption of oil, coal and gas, according to CREA. Meanwhile, solar and wind installations both hit records for the first quarter, and the country is speeding up approvals and construction of nuclear power plants. In a report last month, researchers from think tank Ember also said China is getting closer to meeting new power demand with additional low carbon electricity rather than coal. The country’s ability to do so could have global implications. “China is the world’s biggest coal power country but also the leader in absolute wind and solar generation,” analyst Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka said in the report. “Whether peaking fossil generation globally happens in 2023 is largely down to China.”
  • 8. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 NewBase May 15 -2023 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Oil falls as economic concerns offset prospect of tighter supplies Reuters + NewBase Oil prices slipped on Monday as concerns about fuel demand in top global oil consumers United States and China offset bullish sentiment about tightening supplies from any OPEC+ cuts and a resumption in U.S. buying for res erves. Brent crude futures fell 64 cents, or 0.86%, to $73.53 a barrel by 0548 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.57 a barrel, down 47 cents, or 0.68%. Last week, both benchmarks fell for a fourth consecutive week, the longest streak of weekly declines since September 2022, over concern the United States could enter a recession on "significant risk" of a historic default within the first two weeks of June. Investors sought safe havens such as the U.S. dollar, strengthening the currency and making dollar- denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. "Oil prices are still under pressure on sluggish demand outlooks as China’s economic reopening progress seems bumpy," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said, adding that the U.S. banking rout has also caused market jitters. Investors will scour China's slew of economic data on industrial output, fixed assets investment and retail sales in the week ahead for signs of oil demand improvement, she said. Oil price special coverage
  • 9. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 "With the uneven re-opening in China and concerns that the U.S is facing a growth slowdown at a time when the X-date for the debt ceiling is rapidly approaching, topped off by a rally in the U.S dollar, market sentiment towards crude oil will remain tepid at best," IG analyst Tony Sycamore said. Still, global crude supplies could tighten in the second half as the OPEC+ grouping, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, is making additional output cuts that are reducing sour crude availability. The group announced in April that some members will cut output further by around 1.16 million barrels per day, bringing the total volume of cuts to 3.66 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations. However, Iraq does not expect OPEC+ to make further cuts to oil output at its next meeting in June, its oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said. The U.S. could start repurchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after completing a congressionally mandated sale in June, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers on Thursday. This announcement was followed by a weekly report by energy services firm Baker Hughes Co (BKR.O) which showed U.S. oil rigs fell by two to 586 this week, their lowest since June 2022, while gas rigs plunged by 16 to 141. Meanwhile, leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations could announce new measures at their May 19-21 meetings that target sanctions evasion involving third countries, said officials with direct knowledge of the discussions. The tightening of sanctions will also seek to undermine Russia's future energy production and curb trade that supports the Russian military, the people said. India and China, the world's No. 3 and No. 1 crude importers, respectively, have been the key buyers of Russian crude since the European Union embargo started in December.
  • 10. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 Gas Drilling Collapses in US at Fastest Rate in Seven Years The US natural gas industry is pulling back on exploration at the fastest pace in seven years amid tumbling prices for the heating and power plant fuel. Rigs searching for natural gas declined by 16 to 141 this week, according to data released Friday by Baker Hughes Co. The 10% drop is the sharpest weekly pullback since February 2016. Some of the world’s biggest contractors have been predicting a slowdown in gas drilling over the past month. Gas prices have plummeted about 75% since reaching a peak last August amid lower demand and constrained export capacity. Gas futures climbed Friday after the rigs data was released. Prices jumped as much as 6.6%.
  • 11. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 European Gas Tumbles in Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2020 European natural gas dropped on Friday in its longest run of weekly declines in more than three years, as demand remains muted even with the fuel becoming increasingly more economic than coal for power generation. (Bloomberg) — European natural gas dropped on Friday in its longest run of weekly declines in more than three years, as demand remains muted even with the fuel becoming increasingly more economic than coal for power generation. Benchmark futures tumbled on Friday, ending a six consecutive week with a loss and extending this year’s slump to more than 55%. While cheaper gas has opened the door for increased switching from coal in power generation, consumption remains weak as the region recuperates from last year’s energy-price shocks. By clicking on the sign up button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You may unsubscribe any time by clicking on the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails or any newsletter. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300 “Due to the slow recovery of industry, overall electricity demand still remains very low,” said Florian Rothenberg, an analyst at commodities consultancy ICIS. Plus, May is always a strong month for renewable generation, which for the time being is covering about 51% of Europe’s power mix, he said. Traders will be closely watching how the situation evolves in the coming months. High fuel stockpiles and ample supplies of liquefied natural gas have helped to keep a lid on prices. But weather and climate issues remain a persistent factor. Last summer, Europe faced abnormal heat and drought that affected hydro power and some nuclear plants, bolstering the use of gas.
  • 12. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 For now, the market “is calm due to strong supply, and it will likely take a heat wave either in Europe or Asia to change the picture,” analysts at trading firm Energi Danmark A/S said in a note. May Data Combined gas-fired power generation in key European Union members has moved closer to seasonal norms in recent days — after being far below that level in April — while coal burn dropped, according to data from grid group ENTSO-E, compiled by Bloomberg. “May will be the first full month where gas is much cheaper than coal, maybe we see stronger signs of switching,” said Fabian Ronningen, a power analyst at Rystad Energy AS. Dutch front-month gas, Europe’s benchmark, traded 6.3% lower at €32.80 per megawatt-hour by 5:08 p.m. in Amsterdam, the lowest level since July 2021. The UK equivalent contract dropped 5.6%. German power prices for next month also slipped. To be sure, the spark and dark spreads — which measure the profitability of running gas- and coal- fired plants — still favor coal for the upcoming heating season and into next year, albeit at much lower margins than in 2022. In the longer term, all thermal power plants will be under “significant downward pressure” across Europe given increasing output from renewables, said Emma Champion, head of regional energy transitions at BloombergNEF. “This trend outstrips the upside gas plants can capture even with improved fuel switching economics vs coal.”
  • 13. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 NewBase Specual Coverage The Energy world –May -15 -2023 CLEAN ENERGY U.S.A: EIA projects U.S coal usage & Co2 emissions will decrease in the Annual Energy Outlook 2023 Data source: U.S. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023) The EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023) projects that U.S. coal-fired generating capacity will drop below half of 2022 levels by 2050. In a scenario assuming higher zero-carbon technology costs than in eia base case, called the Reference case, eia project coal-fired capacity drops 52% to 97 gigawatts (GW) by 2050. In the Reference case, coal-fired capacity falls 64% to 73 GW by 2050. In another scenario where eia assume lower zero-carbon technology costs than in the Reference case, eia project coal-fired capacity falls 88% to 23 GW by midcentury. In the eia AEO2023, eia explore long-term energy trends in the United States and present an outlook for energy markets through 2050. Eia use different scenarios, called cases, to understand how varying assumptions affect energy trends. In the High Zero-Carbon Technology Cost (High ZTC) case, eia assume technology costs for zero- carbon resources such as renewables, nuclear, and battery storage will stay flat at their 2022 levels through 2050. This assumption results in less retirement of coal-fired generating capacity. In the
  • 14. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 Low Zero-Carbon Technology Cost (Low ZTC) case, eia assumee the cost of zero-carbon technologies declines by about 40% by 2050 compared with the Reference case. All AEO2023 cases, including the Reference, Low ZTC, and High ZTC cases, reflect laws and regulations adopted through mid-November, including the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides tax credits for zero-emission technologies that further reduce the cost of resources such as solar and wind. The 52% to 88% drop in total coal-fired capacity includes about 99 GW to 159 GW of retiring coal- fired capacity and a small amount of coal-fired capacity projected to be converted to natural gas- fired capacity. Of the retirements, 61 GW come from coal-fired plants that owners and operators have already announced plans to retire. Various factors such as an aging coal fleet, environmental regulations, and competition from natural gas-fired, solar, and wind plants have contributed to the declining economics of coal-fired capacity. Note: Solar generation excludes off-grid photovoltaics. Capacity is the maximum electric output a generator can produce under specific conditions. The generation, or electricity produced over time, from wind and solar depends on the availability of sunshine or wind. Although eia projects the combined capacity from solar and wind is more than three times higher by 2050 from 2022, fossil fuel and nuclear plants, which are available to operate around the clock, still supply a portion of projected generation. In the High ZTC case, coal produces 8% of U.S. electricity generation in 2050 compared with a combined 40% from solar and wind, 31% from natural gas, and 13% from nuclear.
  • 15. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 In the Reference case, the combined share from solar and wind grows to 55% of total generation by 2050 with smaller shares of 5% from coal, 22% from natural gas, and 11% from nuclear. In the Low ZTC case, solar and wind generate 69% of electricity in 2050 compared with only 1% from coal, 11% from natural gas, and 12% from nuclear. The coal-fired generation in all three cases comes from the newer, more efficient coal-fired power plants that will remain online because they can provide lower-cost, dispatchable power to the grid. By 2030, energy-related CO2 emissions fall 25% to 38% below 2005 levels, depending on case assumptions Under the Paris Agreement, the United States set a goal to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% to 52% of 2005 levels by 2030. We only consider energy-related CO2 emissions, which does not cover the full NDC scope. Eia project lower U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions in 2030 relative to 2005 in the AEO2023 Reference case and all side cases . CO2 emissions are most sensitive to economic growth and assumptions related to the cost of zero-carbon generation technology. Combinations of these two sets of assumptions form the upper and lower bounds of projected CO2 emissions. Emissions decrease by 25% in 2030 relative to 2005 under the combined high economic growth and high zero-carbon technology cost assumptions and by as much as 38% under low economic growth and low zero-carbon technology cost assumptions. Both of these cases hinge on specific assumptions regarding the relationship between economic growth and zero-carbon technology development.2 In the High Economic Growth case, emissions fall initially and then begin to increase again in 2040 as industrial activity and travel (measured in vehicle miles traveled) increase, surpassing emissions reductions from the electric power sector.
  • 16. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 The largest variations in projected U.S. CO2 emissions across cases occur in the electric power, transportation, and industrial sectors. Although economic growth assumptions affect consumption and, in turn, projected CO2 emissions in all sectors, different case-specific assumptions affect sectors differently. For example, emissions from the electric power sector are particularly responsive to assumptions about the cost of zero-carbon technologies, and transportation sector emissions are sensitive to assumptions about fossil fuel supply and cost, particularly oil and petroleum products. The eia projects that renewable power capacity will increase in all regions of the United States in all AEO2023 cases, although regional resource availability results in varying renewable resource mixes across regions . Across all cases, between 40%-60% of the renewable power capacity in the Mid-Continent region in 2050 comes from wind, and the Southeast and the region managed by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) have large shares of solar and a small amount of wind power capacity in all cases. Once built and when the resource is available, wind and solar generation outcompete other technologies for system dispatch because they have zero fuel costs. Across all AEO2023 cases, some renewable generation is left unused and curtailed, typically midday when solar generation can exceed demand in some regions and seasons. Battery capacity is built in all cases to store and dispatch some of this otherwise unused generation in later hours, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel capacity, such as natural gas-fired peaking units or load-following combined-cycle units .
  • 17. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 Battery storage is also used to replace natural gas-fired capacity to provide reserve capacity. In the Reference case in 2050, 160 gigawatts (GW) of standalone battery storage capacity will be deployed, and deployment varies between 40 GW and 260 GW in the other cases. U.S. energy consumption increases through 2050, and electricity plays an increasingly large role Total energy consumption, including electricity use and electricity-related losses, increases by as much as 15% from 2022 to 2050 across the AEO2023 Reference case and side cases. U.S. energy consumption increases in many end-use sectors across all AEO2023 cases. Total energy consumption, including electricity use and electricity-related losses, increases by as much as 15% from 2022 to 2050 across the AEO2023 Reference case and side cases. The largest increases, in percentage terms, are in the industrial sector where energy consumption increases as much as 32% and in the transportation sector where energy consumption increases as much as 8%. Energy consumption in the residential and commercial sectors are the least sensitive to changes in assumptions across cases. In addition to macroeconomic growth assumptions, which affect energy consumption in all sectors, many sectors are also highly responsive to zero-carbon technology cost assumptions. Increasing energy consumption, improving end-use and electric power sector technology and efficiency, and declining costs for zero-carbon generation technologies, which, in turn, leads to cheaper electricity, all lead to increased electrification in the end-use sectors.
  • 18. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 The share of electricity in the residential and transportation sectors increase the most as demand for space cooling increases and electric vehicles gain a larger market share. The residential sector purchased 5.1 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of electricity in 2022, and residential consumption of purchased electricity increases between about 14% and 22% from 2022 to 2050 across all cases, reaching between 5.9 and 6.3 quads. Electricity purchased for transportation reaches between about 0.6 quads and 1.3 quads in 2050, from 0.1 quads of purchased electricity in 2022, an increase of between 892% and 2,038% across all cases. Electricity purchased in the industrial sector is most influenced by economic growth assumptions, increasing by about 3%, from 3.5 quads in 2022 to about 3.6 quads in 2050 in low economic growth cases and by about 36% to 38%, to about 4.7 quads, in high economic growth cases.
  • 19. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 NewBase Energy News 15-May 2023 - Issue No. 1620 call on +971504822502, UAE The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscriptions, please email us. About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b Mobile: +971504822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S. Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant, advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over 1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.
  • 20. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
  • 21. Copyright © 2022 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21