Ne base 05 feruary 2018 energy news issue 1136 by khaled al awadi

Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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NewBase Energy News 05 February 2018 - Issue No. 1136 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: Ras Al Khaimah Target clean energy of around 25% by 2040
The National - Jennifer Gnana
Ras Al Khaimah, the UAE’s northernmost emirate, is looking to kick-start its renewables and
efficiency programme and is weighing up possible targets of 25 to 30 per cent clean energy in its
power mix by 2040.“We have estimated a potential of about 25 per cent of the total consumption
to come from renewables in Ras Al Khaimah towards the end
of our strategy, so we’re talking about 15 to 20 years from
now,” said Andrea di Gregorio, director of the newly set up
energy efficiency and renewables office in the RAK
Municipality.
Ras Al Khaimah is a new entrant to the clean energy drive in
the region, having set up its renewables and energy efficiency
office six months ago. The UAE, which currently meets 98 per
cent of its power generation needs from gas, targets increasing clean energy use by 50 per cent
and improving energy efficiency by 40 per cent by the middle of the century, deploying a total
capacity of 44 gigawatts from renewable sources by 2050.
While Ras Al Khaimah’s population is about 300,000 and small in comparison with Dubai’s nearly
3 million residents, the UAE’s fourth-largest emirate is home to highly energy-intensive industries,
including one of the world’s largest ceramics tile manufacturing facilities as well as a sizeable
cement industry.
The industrial sector, which accounted for 40 to 45 per cent of the 5.3 Terrawatt hours (TWh) the
emirate consumed last year, will be a main target of its energy management initiatives. Ras Al
Khaimah will arrive at defined renewable and energy efficiency targets “in three to four months,”
said Mr di Gregorio.
Among the tentative plans being considered include rolling out the first phase of utility scale solar
photovoltaic (PV), five to 10 per cent of the mix by 2025, with the second phase accounting for 10
to 15 per cent by 2030.
The International Renewable Energy Agency, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, estimates solar PV
module prices have decreased 80 per cent since 2009. These falling prices have increased their
uptake. A report by the US department of energy puts new deployment at 75 GW globally in 2016,
with an additional 69GW to 109GW set to be installed by 2020.
Countries in the Middle East have also warmed up to PV deployment. Saudi Arabia is slated to
this year tender about 3.25GW of solar PV projects in its inaugural renewables round. Ras Al
Khaimah currently meets its energy requirements entirely through gas sourced from the Dolphin
pipeline that delivers 2 billion cubic feet a day of the fuel to the UAE from Qatar’s North Dome
field, one of the largest in the world.
Earlier this year, the emirate’s gas company said it is launching a licensing round in a bid to
diversify sources of the fuel, particularly for industrial use. Ras Al Khaimah’s aspirations, “which

are subject to regulations by the Federal Electricity and Water Authority,” include an initial phase-
in of energy savings of about 20 per cent and 15 per cent water savings for new buildings in the
emirate, added Mr di Gregorio.
Across the UAE, energy efficiency initiatives have slowly gathered momentum. In 2016, Dubai
announced targets for energy savings – 20 per cent by 2020 and 30 per cent by 2030 – and to
generate energy savings of 1.7TWh as well as water savings of 5.6 billion imperial gallons in the
next 12 years. While Abu Dhabi has not specified targets, the emirate’s Department of Economic
Development announced last year that it had opened accreditation for energy service companies
(Escos).
The Ras Al Khaimah municipality’s renewable and energy efficiency office currently acts as the
emirate’s Super Esco and has begun the process of accreditation with five Escos already
registered, said Mr di Gregorio.
The emirate also plans to pilot a retrofit of public buildings to become more energy efficient and is
considering waste-to-energy, solar heating programmes as well as deploying electric vehicles and
charging stations as part of its initiatives.

Morocco: SDX Energy spuds KSS-2 development well, onshore
Source: SDX Energy
SDX Energy, the North Africa focused oil and gas company, has spud its KSS-2
development well on the Sebou permit in Morocco.
The KSS-2 well is the sixth in the Company's nine well campaign. The well is anticipated to take
10-15 days to drill and if successful is expected to be completed, flow tested and connected to
existing infrastructure in the near term.
The recently drilled ONZ-7 well will be completed today and will commence test production early
next week. SDX expects to provide a further update on testing results later this month.
About SDX SDX
is an international oil and gas exploration, production and development company, headquartered in
London, England, UK, with a principal focus on North Africa. In Egypt, SDX has a working interest in two
producing assets (50% North West Gemsa & 50% Meseda) located onshore in the Eastern Desert,
adjacent to the Gulf of Suez. In Morocco, SDX has a 75% working interest in the Sebou concession
situated in the Rharb Basin. These producing assets are characterised by exceptionally low operating costs
making them particularly resilient in a low oil price environment.
SDX’s portfolio also includes high impact exploration opportunities in both Egypt and Morocco. For further
information, please see the website of the Company at www.sdxenergy.com or the Company’s filed
documents at www.sedar.com.
For further information: SDX Energy Inc. Paul Welch President and Chief Executive Officer Tel: +44 203
219 5640 Mark Reid Chief Financial Officer Tel: +44 203 219 5640 .

Bahrain: Financially self-sustainable oil projects under way
Tradearabia News Service
Bahrain’s new oil and gas projects are designed to be financially self-sustainable and will add to the
kingdom’s natural resources, said the Minister of Oil Shaikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Khalifa.
Participating in the Falak Consulting quarterly Power Lunch as the guest of honour
Shaikh Mohammed highlighted the importance of sustainability and its role protecting
Bahrain’s economy for present and future generations.
“All decisions taken related to subsidies, are made with the long-term protection of
Bahrain’s citizens in mind and allows for sustainable prosperity for future
generations,” he said.
The minister discussed the launch of five key projects
• The Exploration of Deep Gas Zones in the Bahrain Oil Field with its 44,000 and 45,000 production
output capacity;
• Banagas’ 600 million sq ft of APG attracting investment by local banks totalling $515 million and is
set to yield high rate of return;
• Bahrain LNG Import Terminal, the first of its kind in the kingdom with its ability to dock, transport
and store LNG. Financed by a collection of international banks totalling $741 million;
• Bapco’s Modernisation Programme, the single largest investment in Bapco’s history, set to increase
refinery competitiveness, improve energy efficiency and meet environmental compliance, valued at
$5 billion.
Shedding light on the benefit to citizens as well as the context of recent economic changes, he said:
“Bahrain’s citizens and society are the foremost priority following the country’s recent economic changes.
The time is crucial to educate ourselves about our consumption as a nation and to look to the positive
impact these changes will achieve for everyone in the future; the return on subsidisation yields better
economic growth and allows Bahrain the opportunity to keep pace with other Gulf countries with a proven
record of success.”
“As the investment of past generations is still being reaped in the present, we too must look to long-term
profitability, which will safeguard the kingdom’s continued economic prosperity and will ensure a better
standard of living and quality of life for its society for future generations.”
Commenting on the successful event, Suhail Algosaibi, CEO of Falak Consulting said: “At Falak
Consulting, our priority is the betterment of Bahrain’s economy and potential. A crucial step in achieving
this is by engaging key opinion leaders and policy makers at our quarterly Power Lunch and to establish a
constructive dialogue around topics such as the country’s dynamic economy and changes to the business
environment.” –

South Africa plans more gas, renewables to energy supply mix
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics
South Africa is one of the world’s leading emitters of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2), ranking
fifteenth globally in 2015 and accounting for more than any other country in Africa. In an effort to
reduce CO2 emissions, South Africa is planning to diversify its energy portfolio, replacing coal with
lower CO2-emitting fuels such as natural gas and renewable sources.
The country’s Intended National Determined Contribution, submitted as part of the Paris
Agreement, plans for CO2 emissions to peak by 2025, remain flat for a decade, and begin to
decline around 2035.
South Africa relies primarily on coal for electricity generation, and coal accounted for about 70% of
the country’s primary energy consumption in 2016. However, aging coal-fired power plants and
insufficient investment in power infrastructure have led to recurring power outages.
Scheduled power cuts for certain customers during peak electricity demand periods occurred
frequently between 2013 and 2015, which, according to the International Monetary
Fund, negatively affected the country’s industrial and economic growth.
In response, South Africa’s government is expanding its electric generating capacity to include
more efficient coal-fired capacity and encouraging more private sector investment. Over the next
five years, South Africa plans to replace some of its outdated coal-fired capacity with nearly 10
gigawatts (GW) of supercritical coal units, which are more efficient because they operate at higher

temperatures and pressures than conventional coal power plants. The country also plans to add
more generating capacity fueled by natural gas and renewable energy by 2030.
Insufficient natural gas production and infrastructure have meant that consumers in the country
must import a large portion of their supply. More than three-quarters of South Africa’s natural gas
supply is transported by pipeline from Mozambique. Natural gas primarily supplies the state-
owned gas-to-liquids facility at Mossel Bay on the country’s southern coast. In 2015, South
Africa’s Department of Energy released a plan to construct nearly 4 GW of natural gas-fired
capacity that would be supplied by imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) from floating terminals at
Richards Bay and Port Coega starting in 2020.
In addition to increasing LNG imports, the government plans to develop offshore natural gas
fields, produce more onshore shale gas, and import more natural gas by pipeline from
Mozambique. One of the country's most viable opportunities for offshore field development is the
Ibhubesi natural gas field, which is estimated to hold at least 540 billion cubic feet of recoverable
reserves.
EIA estimates that South Africa holds 390 trillion cubic feet of onshore shale gas reserves, making
it the eighth-largest holder of technically recoverable shale gas in the world. However, regulatory
delays and technical difficulties have so far hindered shale gas development.
In an effort to increase the use of renewable energy, South Africa began a procurement program
in 2011 to purchase power from renewable sources and lower-emitting energy plants funded by
independent power producers. This program has added 3.3 GW of renewable generation capacity
to the grid so far, mostly from facilities fueled by wind and solar.
South Africa’s state-owned electricity firm, Eskom, also added large-scale wind and hydropower
facilities since 2015 and currently operates 3.5 GW of renewable energy capacity. South Africa's
government aims to have 17.8 GW of renewable capacity on the grid by 2030, based on its latest
energy plan.

Japan: Cold weather boosts LNG imports to five-year high
LNG World News Staff
Japanese imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) reportedly hit their highest in at least
five years in January.
Japan, the world’s largest LNG buyer, imported nearly 8.7 million tonnes last month, up 8 percent
from December and the largest volume since at least January, 2013, according to report on
Thursday by Reuters.
Rising LNG shipments are expected to continue this month as freezing weather keeps its grip on
Japan, the new agency said.
That upturn is piling further pressure on the region’s spot LNG markets, which marked three-year
highs last month as China rushed to snap up cargoes for its drive to use gas to heat millions of
homes and power thousands of factories, it said.
To remind, Japan increased its imports of the fuel in 2017, for the first time in three years. The
country imported 83.63 million tonnes million mt of LNG in the January-December period, a rise of
0.4 percent as compared to the year before.
Imports of LNG for power generation mainly rose due to nuclear shutdowns as only three out of 42
operable nuclear reactors are currently running in Japan.

U.S. monthly crude oil production exceeds 10MBPD
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly
U.S. crude oil production reached 10.038 million barrels per day (b/d) in November 2017,
according to EIA’s latest Petroleum Supply Monthly. November’s production is the first time since
1970 that monthly U.S. production levels surpassed 10 million b/d and the second-highest U.S.
monthly oil production value ever, just below the November 1970 production value of 10.044
million b/d.
Within the Lower 48 states, November 2017 production reached a record high in Texas at 3.89
million b/d, followed by North Dakota at 1.18 million b/d. Production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico
reached 1.67 million b/d, up 14% from the October 2017 level as the region recovered from
Hurricane Nate.
The production values presented here are based on EIA’s monthly survey of crude oil production,
which, for reasons explained in a webinar presented earlier this week, are considered more
comprehensive and reliable values of U.S. crude oil production than the preliminary estimates
presented in EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
U.S. crude oil production has increased significantly over the past 10 years, driven mainly by
production from tight rock formations including shale and other fine-grained rock using horizontal
drilling and hydraulic fracturing to improve efficiency. EIA estimates of crude oil production from
tight formations in November 2017 reached 5.09 million b/d, surpassing a previous high of 4.70
million b/d in March 2015. These formations also produce considerable volumes of natural gas
associated with the crude oil.
Liquid production—both crude oil and condensate—from tight rock currently accounts for about
51% of total production. A decade ago, in November 2008, production from tight formations
accounted for only 7% of total U.S. production. Non-tight oil production has been mostly constant
over the previous decade.

Tight oil production can be sensitive to changing oil prices. After increasing relatively steadily
since 2011, tight oil production began to decline after the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil
price decreased from $105 per barrel (b) in June 2014 to a low of $30/b in February 2016. WTI
prices were about $60 a barrel in January 2018.
Production continued to increase through these price fluctuations in three formations in the
Permian Basin—the Spraberry, Bone Spring, and Wolfcamp plays that span parts of western
Texas and eastern New Mexico—and in the Bakken formation in the Williston Basin in North
Dakota and Montana.
The volumes shown here for each play are geologic formation subsets of the regional values
presented in EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report. Monthly values of tight oil and shale gas production
from selected plays, compiled from oil and natural gas operator reports to state agencies, are
available on the crude oil and natural gas production pages of EIA’s website.

NewBase February 06 - 2018 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil prices fall amid market sell off, Brent near one-month low
Reuters + Bloomberg + NewBase
Oil prices on Monday extended declines from the end of last week amid a wider market sell off
and a stronger dollar, with Brent crude falling to its lowest in nearly a month.
Other markets dropped as investors were spooked by Friday’s payrolls report from the United
States, which showed wages growing at their fastest pace in more than 8-1/2 years, fuelling
inflation expectations.
Brent was down 57 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $68.01 a barrel at 0716 GMT, after falling 1.5 percent
on Friday. Brent’s weekly drop was 2.75 percent last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
crude declined 47 cents to $64.98 a barrel, after dropping 0.5 percent in the previous session.
WTI fell by 1 percent during the last week.
Oil price special
coverage

“Oil is caught up in this general risk-off move, not helped at the margins by a little bit of strength in
the U.S. dollar,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. Asian shares
were down the most in more than a year on Monday as fears of resurgent inflation battered bonds.
Wall Street dropped last week from record highs as inflation concerns sparked speculation that
central banks globally might be forced to tighten policy more aggressively. The three major U.S.
indexes capped their worst weekly losses in two years, after closing at record highs the previous
week.
“The size of the move in U.S. equities doesn’t always mean this, but usually after a move like that
and particularly when it follows such a long uptrend, there is follow through selling,” Spooner said.
Rising U.S. oil production has also helped push down oil prices, undermining attempts by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to support prices.
Data from the U.S. government last week showed that output climbed above 10 million barrels per
day in November for the first time since 1970, as shale drillers expanded operations after gains in
oil prices last year.
“Over the course of the next few weeks one of the key things is going to be U.S. production data
and whether the increase in shale rigs recently is going to increase,” Spooner said.
U.S. energy companies did add oil rigs for a second week in a row last week, energy services
company Baker Hughes Inc reported on Friday. Drillers added six oil rigs in the week to Feb. 2,
bringing the total to 765.
Hedge funds and money manager reduced last week their bullish positions on U.S. crude, cutting
their net-long positions from a record after three weeks of increases.
The speculator group cut its combined WTI futures and options positions on New York and
London exchanges by 18,365 contracts to 531,235 in the week to Jan. 30, the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission reported on Friday.

Oil Struggles to Persist With Bull Run as U.S. Drilling Expands
Oil’s rally is unraveling on fears over a rise in U.S. production after crude’s best January in more
than a decade.
Futures in New York are extending declines for a second session as Baker Hughes data showed
American explorers last week raised the number of rigs drilling for crude to the highest in almost
six months. Short-sellers betting against West Texas Intermediate oil increased their positions for
a third week, according to figures from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Crude has remained above $60 a barrel this year, extending a rally driven by the extension of an
output deal until the end of 2018 by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its
allies. While oil’s best start to the year since 2006 was also helped by falling U.S. inventories and
a weaker greenback, Citigroup Inc. says the market is underestimating U.S. output growth as a
bigger surge is forecast along with an increase capital spending.
“With the higher U.S. oil rig counts and higher oil production sustaining into February, the
concerns in the market seem to be valid at this point,” Barnabas Gan, an economist at Oversea-
Chinese Banking Corp., said by phone from Singapore. “As these worries resurface, prices are
edging lower.”
WTI for March delivery dropped as much as 83 cents to $64.62 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange and traded at $64.92 at 7:53 a.m. in London. The U.S. benchmark declined
35 cents to $65.45 on Friday. Total volume traded was about 51 percent above the 100-day
average.
Brent for April settlement lost as much as 89 cents to $67.69 a barrel on the London-based ICE
Futures Europe exchange. Prices dropped 2.8 percent last week. The global benchmark crude
traded at a premium of $3.50 to April WTI, the least since August.
U.S. drillers last week added 6 rigs to raise the number of machines drilling for crude to 765, the
highest since Aug. 11, Baker Hughes data showed Friday. That may lead to a further increase in
U.S. crude production, which breached 10 million barrels a day to the highest level in more than
four decades in November.
Short-sellers against WTI futures made an appearance for a third week, casting doubts over oil’s
more than 50 percent rally since June. Short positions increased 6.3 percent to 39,127 contracts
in the week ended Jan. 30, rising the most in eight weeks, according to CFTC data.

Traders may still be reacting to Friday’s strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, particularly the
strength in average hourly wages, which suggests inflation may be heating up. This could lead to
additional rate hikes by the Fed later this year, underpinning the U.S. Dollar. A stronger
Greenback could put pressure on oil because it is a dollar-denominated commodity.
In other news, according to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil and gas rigs decreased last
week by a single rig. This brought the total number of oil and gas rigs to 946, which is an addition
of 217 rigs year over year.
Forecast
We’re not going to see any inventories data until late Tuesday, with the release of the American
Petroleum Institute’s weekly report. Last week’s report showed a bigger-than-expected build after
several weeks of drawdowns. Another drawdown this week could mean a trend is developing.
This could put pressure on prices.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will also release its inventories data.
Last week, its report ended a streak of consecutive weekly drawdowns. Traders will also be
watching to see if another build signals the start of a trend. The report also showed that U.S.
production rose to over 10 million barrels per day.
Traders should note that rising interest rates means oil companies are paying more to finance
their operating wells. This may encourage a few to cut back on the number of existing wells. This
could be supportive for prices.
The longer-term fundamentals are bullish, but the short-term chart pattern suggests the market
may be ripe for a pullback over the near-term.

NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release February 05-2018
World Energy Outlook 2017, Global shifts in the energy system
https://www.iea.org/weo2017/
Four large-scale shifts in the global energy system set the scene for the World Energy Outlook
2017: the rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies, the growing
electrification of energy, the shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix
in China, and the resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States.
These shifts come at a time when traditional distinctions between energy producers and
consumers are being blurred and a new group of major developing countries, led by India, moves
towards centre stage.
How these developments play out and interact is the story of this year’s Outlook.
Growing energy demand
In the New Policies Scenario, global energy needs rise more slowly than in the past but still
expand by 30% between today and 2040. This is the equivalent of adding another China and India
to today’s global demand.
A global economy growing at an average rate of 3.4% per year, a population that expands from
7.4 billion today to more than 9 billion in 2040, and a process of urbanisation that adds a city the
size of Shanghai to the world’s urban population every four months are key forces that underpin
our projections.

The largest contribution to demand growth – almost 30% – comes from India, whose share of
global energy use rises to 11% by 2040 (still well below its 18% share in the anticipated global
population).
Southeast Asia is another rising heavyweight in global energy, with demand growing at twice the
pace of China. Overall, developing countries in Asia account for two-thirds of global energy
growth, with the rest coming mainly from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
Renewables step up, coal strikes out
Compared with the past twenty-five years, the way that the world meets its growing energy needs
changes dramatically in the New Policies Scenario, with the lead now taken by natural gas, by the
rapid rise of renewables and by energy efficiency.
Improvements in efficiency play a huge role in taking the strain off the supply side: without them,
the projected rise in final energy use would more than double. Renewable sources of energy meet
40% of the increase in primary demand and their explosive growth in the power sector marks the
end of the boom years for coal.
Since 2000, coal-fired power generation capacity has grown by nearly 900 gigawatts (GW), but
net additions from today to 2040 are only 400 GW and many of these are plants already under
construction. In India, the share of coal in the power mix drops from three-quarters in 2016 to less
than half in 2040. In the absence of large-scale carbon capture and storage, global coal
consumption flatlines.
Oil demand continues to grow to 2040, albeit at a steadily decreasing pace. Natural gas use rises
by 45% to 2040; with more limited room to expand in the power sector, industrial demand

becomes the largest area for growth. The outlook for nuclear power has dimmed since last year’s
Outlook, but China continues to lead a gradual rise in output, overtaking the United States by
2030 to become the largest producer of nuclear-based electricity.
Bright future for renewables
Renewables capture two-thirds of global investment in power plants to 2040 as they become, for
many countries, the least-cost source of new generation.
Rapid deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV), led by China and India, helps solar become the
largest source of low-carbon capacity by 2040, by which time the share of all renewables in total
power generation reaches 40%.
In the European Union, renewables account for 80% of new capacity and wind power becomes
the leading source of electricity soon after 2030, due to strong growth both onshore and offshore.
Policies continue to support renewable electricity worldwide, increasingly through competitive
auctions rather than feed-in tariffs, and the transformation of the power sector is amplified by
millions of households, communities and businesses investing directly in distributed solar PV.
Growth in renewables is not confined to the power sector. The direct use of renewables to provide
heat and mobility worldwide also doubles, albeit from a low base. In Brazil, the share of direct and
indirect renewable use in final energy consumption rises from 39% today to 45% in 2040,
compared with a global progression from 9% to 16% over the same period.
The future is electrifying
Electricity is the rising force among worldwide end-uses of energy, making up 40% of the rise in
final consumption to 2040 – the same share of growth that oil took for the last twenty-five years.
TWhElectricity demand by selected region2016Growth to 2040ChinaUnited StatesIndiaEuropean
UnionSoutheast AsiaMiddle EastAfrica01k2k3k4k5k6k7k8k9k10kWorld Energy Outlook 2017, IEA

Industrial electric motor systems account for one-third of the increase in power demand in the
New Policies Scenario. Rising incomes mean that many millions of households add electrical
appliances (with an increasing share of “smart” connected devices) and install cooling systems.
Electricity makes inroads in supplying heat and mobility, alongside growth in its traditional
domains, allowing its share of final consumption to rise to nearly a quarter. A strengthening tide of
industry initiatives and policy support pushes our projection for the global electric car fleet up to
280 million by 2040, from 2 million today.
The scale of future electricity needs and the challenge of decarbonising power supply help to
explain why global investment in electricity overtook that of oil and gas for the first time in 2016
and why electricity security is moving firmly up the policy agenda.
The increasing use of digital technologies across the economy improves efficiency and facilitates
the flexible operation of power systems, but also creates potential new vulnerabilities that need to
be addressed.
When China changes, everything changes
China is entering a new phase in its development. The president’s call for an “energy revolution”,
the “fight against pollution” and the transition towards a more services-based economic model is
moving the energy sector in a new direction - with the emphasis in energy policy now firmly on
electricity, natural gas and cleaner, high-efficiency and digital technologies.
MtoePrimary energy demand by fuel in ChinaOther renewablesBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilCoalAnnual
growth (right axis)20002002200420062008201020122014201601k2k3k4k0%5%10%15%20%World
Energy Outlook 2017, IEA
Demand growth slowed markedly from an average of 8% per year from 2000 to 2012 to less than
2% per year since 2012, and in the New Policies Scenario it slows further to an average of 1% per
year to 2040. Energy efficiency regulation explains a large part of this slowdown. Without new
efficiency measures, end-use consumption in 2040 would be 40% higher. Nonetheless, by 2040
per-capita energy consumption in China exceeds that of the European Union.
China’s choices will play a huge role in determining global trends, and could spark a faster clean
energy transition. The scale of China’s clean energy deployment, technology exports and outward
investment makes it a key determinant of momentum behind the low-carbon transition: one-third
of the world’s new wind power and solar PV is installed in China in the New Policies Scenario, and
China also accounts for more than 40% of global investment in electric vehicles (EVs).
ProjectionsHistoricalGWInstalled capacity by technology in China in the NPSOther renewablesSolar
PVWindBioenergyHydroNuclearOilGasCoal2000201020162020202520302035204001k2k3k4kWorld
Energy Outlook 2017, IEA
China provides a quarter of the projected rise in global gas demand and its projected imports of
280 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2040 are second only to those of the European Union, making
China a linchpin of global gas trade.
China overtakes the United States as the largest oil consumer around 2030, and its net imports
reach 13 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2040. But stringent fuel-efficiency measures for cars and
trucks, and a shift which sees one-in-four cars being electric by 2040, means that China is no
longer the main driving force behind global oil use – demand growth is larger in India post-2025.
China remains a towering presence in coal markets, but our projections suggest that coal use
peaked in 2013 and is set to decline by almost 15% over the period to 2040.

The US shale revolution turns to exports
A remarkable ability to unlock new resources cost-effectively pushes combined United States oil
and gas output to a level 50% higher than any other country has ever managed; already a net
exporter of gas, the US becomes a net exporter of oil in the late 2020s.
mboe/dOil and gas production in the United StatesNew Policies Scenario, 1980 - 2040Shale oilShale
gasOther unconventionalsConventional oil and
gas198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204005101520253035World Energy
Outlook 2017, IEA
In our projections, the 8 mb/d rise in US tight oil output from 2010 to 2025 would match the
highest sustained period of oil output growth by a single country in the history of oil markets. A
630 bcm increase in US shale gas production over the 15 years from 2008 would comfortably
exceed the previous record for gas.
Expansion on this scale is having wide-ranging impacts within North America, fuelling major
investments in petrochemicals and other energy-intensive industries. It is also reordering
international trade flows and challenging incumbent suppliers and business models.
By the mid-2020s, the United States become the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exporter and a few years later a net exporter of oil – still a major importer of heavier crudes that
suit the configuration of its refineries, but a larger exporter of light crude and refined products.
The era of oil is not yet over
With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and
maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world’s consumers are not yet ready to
say goodbye to the era of oil.
Up until the mid-2020s demand growth remains robust in the New Policies Scenario, but slows
markedly thereafter as greater efficiency and fuel switching bring down oil use for passenger
vehicles (even though the global car fleet doubles from today to reach 2 billion by 2040).
Powerful impetus from other sectors is enough to keep oil demand on a rising trajectory to 105
mb/d by 2040: oil use to produce petrochemicals is the largest source of growth, closely followed
by rising consumption for trucks (fuel-efficiency policies cover 80% of global car sales today, but
only 50% of global truck sales), for aviation and for shipping.
mb/dChange in global oil demand by sector2010-2040, New Policies ScenarioOtherPower
generationBuildingsPetrochemicalsIndustryAviation, shippingRoad freightPassenger vehiclesTotal2010-
20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-2040-20246World Energy Outlook 2017, IEA
Once US tight oil plateaus in the late 2020s and non-OPEC production as a whole falls back, the
market becomes increasingly reliant on the Middle East to balance the market. There is a
continued large-scale need for investment to develop a total of 670 billion barrels of new
resources to 2040, mostly to make up for declines at existing fields rather than to meet the
increase in demand.
Even greater upside for US tight oil and a more rapid switch to electric cars would keep oil prices
lower for longer. We explore this possibility in a Low Oil Price Case, in which a doubling of the
estimate for tight oil resources, to more than 200 billion barrels, boosts US supply and more
widespread application of digital technologies helps to keep a lid on upstream costs around the
globe.

Extra policy and infrastructure support pushes a much more rapid expansion in the global electric
car fleet, which approaches 900 million cars by 2040. Along with a favourable assumption about
the ability of the main oil-producing regions to weather the storm of lower hydrocarbon revenues,
this is enough to keep prices within a $50-70/barrel range to 2040. However, it is not sufficient to
trigger a major turnaround in global oil use.
Even with a rapid transformation of the passenger car fleet, reaching a peak in global demand
would require stronger policy action in other sectors. Otherwise, in a lower oil price world,
consumers have few economic incentives to make the switch away from oil or to use it more
efficiently.
Meanwhile, with projected demand growth appearing robust, at least for the near term, a third
straight year in 2017 of low investment in new conventional projects remains a worrying indicator
for the future market balance, creating a substantial risk of a shortfall of new supply in the 2020s.
A new order for global gas markets
Natural gas grows to account for a quarter of global energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
by 2040, becoming the second-largest fuel in the global mix after oil.
In resource-rich regions, such as the Middle East, the case for expanding gas use is relatively
straightforward, especially when it can substitute for oil. In the United States, plentiful supplies
maintain a strong share of gas-fired power in electricity generation through to 2040, even without
national policies limiting the use of coal.
But 80% of the projected growth in gas demand takes place in developing economies, led by
China, India and other countries in Asia, where much of the gas needs to be imported (and so
transportation costs are significant) and infrastructure is often not yet in place. This reflects the
fact that gas looks a good fit for policy priorities in this region, generating heat, power and mobility

with fewer carbon-dioxide (CO2) and pollutant emissions than other fossil fuels, helping to address
widespread concerns over air quality.
bcmGas demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario20162040United StatesMiddle
EastChinaRussiaEuropean UnionOther Developing AsiaLatin
AmericaAfricaIndia0100200300400500600700800900World Energy Outlook 2017, IEA
But the competitive landscape is formidable, not just due to coal but also to renewables, which in
some countries become a cheaper form of new power generation than gas by the mid-2020s,
pushing gas-fired plants towards a balancing rather than a baseload role. Efficiency policies also
play a part in constraining gas use: while the electricity generated from gas grows by more than
half to 2040, related gas use rises by only one-third, due to more reliance on highly efficient
plants.
A new gas order is emerging, with US LNG helping to accelerate a shift towards a more flexible,
liquid, global market. Ensuring that gas remains affordable and secure, beyond the current period
of ample supply and lower prices, is critical for its long-term prospects. LNG accounts for almost
90% of the projected growth in long-distance gas trade to 2040: with few exceptions, most notably
the route that opens up between Russia and China, major new pipelines struggle in a world that
prizes the optionality of LNG.
bcmChange in gas imports by selected region and mode in the NewPolicies Scenario, 2016-
2040LNGPipelineJapan andKoreaEuropean UnionIndiaSoutheast AsiaOther AsiaChina-
50050100150200250World Energy Outlook 2017, IEA
Gas supply also becomes more diverse: the amount of liquefaction sites worldwide doubles to
2040, with the main additions coming from the United States and Australia, followed by Russia,
Qatar, Mozambique and Canada. Price formation is based increasingly on competition between
various sources of gas, rather than indexation to oil. With destination flexibility, hub-based pricing
and spot availability, US LNG acts as a catalyst for many of the anticipated changes in the wider
gas market.
The new gas order can bring dividends for gas security, although there is the risk of a hard landing
for gas markets in the 2020s if uncertainty over the pace or direction of change deters new
investments.
Over the longer term, a larger and more liquid LNG market can compensate for reduced flexibility
elsewhere in the energy system (for example, lower fuel-switching capacity in some countries as
coal-fired generation is retired). We estimate that, in 2040, it would take around ten days for major
importing regions to raise their import levels by 10%, a week less than it might take today in
Europe, Japan and Korea.
Falling short on access, air pollution and GHGs
Access to electricity and clean cooking
Universal access to electricity remains elusive, and scaling up access to clean cooking facilities is
even more challenging.
There are some positive signs: over 100 million people per year have gained access to electricity
since 2012 compared with around 60 million per year from 2000 to 2012. Progress in India and
Indonesia has been particularly impressive, and in sub-Saharan Africa electrification efforts
outpaced population growth for the first time in 2014.

People without access to electricityPeople without clean cookingaccessBillion peoplePeople without access
to electricity and clean cooking facilitiesSub-Saharan AfricaIndiaSoutheast AsiaOther Developing
AsiaChinaOther developing economies200020042008201220162000201600.511.522.53World Energy
Outlook 2017, IEA
But, despite this momentum, in the New Policies Scenario around 675 million people – 90% of
them in sub-Saharan Africa – remain without access to electricity in 2030 (down from 1.1 billion
today), and 2.3 billion continue to rely on biomass, coal or kerosene for cooking (from 2.8 billion
today). Household air pollution from these sources is currently linked to 2.8 million premature
deaths per year, and several billion hours are spent collecting firewood for cooking, mostly by
women, that could be put to more productive uses.
Air quality
Policy attention to air quality is rising and global emissions of all the major pollutants fall in our
projections, but their health impacts remain severe.
Ageing populations in many industrialised societies become more vulnerable to the effects of air
pollution and urbanisation can also increase exposure to pollutants from traffic. Premature deaths
worldwide from outdoor air pollution rise from 3 million today to more than 4 million in 2040 in the
New Policies Scenario, even though pollution control technologies are applied more widely and
other emissions are avoided because energy services are provided more efficiently or (as with
wind and solar) without fuel combustion.
Change in air pollutant emissions by regionNew Policies Scenario, 2015-2040European
UnionChinaIndiaSoutheast AsiaRest of World-60%-30%0%30%60%World Energy Outlook 2017, IEA
SO2
NOx
PM2.5
GHG emissions
Despite their recent flattening, global energy-related CO2 emissions increase slightly to 2040 in
the New Policies Scenario. This outcome is far from enough to avoid severe impacts of climate
change, but there are a few positive signs. Projected 2040 emissions in the New Policies Scenario
are lower by 600 million tonnes than in last year’s Outlook (35.7 gigatonnes [Gt] versus 36.3 Gt).
In China, CO2 emissions are projected to plateau at 9.2 Gt (only slightly above current levels) by
2030 before starting to fall back.
Index (2000 = 100%)Three speeds of CO2 emissions in the New Policies ScenarioChinaRest of the
worldAdvanced
economies2000200520102015202020252030203520400%50%100%150%200%250%300%World Energy
Outlook 2017, IEA
Worldwide emissions from the power sector are limited to a 5% increase between now and 2040,
even though electricity demand grows by 60% and global GDP by 125%. However, the speed of
change in the power sector is not matched elsewhere: CO2emissions from oil use in transport
almost catch up with those from coal-fired power plants (which are flat) by 2040, and there is also
a 20% rise in emissions from industry.
The Sustainable Development Scenario

The Sustainable Development Scenario offers an integrated way to achieve a range of energy-
related goals crucial for sustainable economic development: climate stabilisation, cleaner air and
universal access to modern energy, while also reducing energy security risks.
This scenario starts from a set of desired outcomes and considers what would be necessary to
deliver them. Central to these outcomes is the achievement of an early peak in CO2 emissions
and a subsequent rapid decline, consistent with the Paris Agreement.
A key finding is that universal access to electricity and clean cooking can be reached without
making this task any more challenging. We also investigate, in a Faster Transition Scenario, how
policies could push an even more rapid and steeper decline in CO2emissions and limit climate
risks further.
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, low-carbon sources double their share in the energy
mix to 40% in 2040, all avenues to improve efficiency are pursued, coal demand goes into an
immediate decline and oil consumption peaks soon thereafter. Power generation is all but
decarbonised, relying by 2040 on generation from renewables (over 60%), nuclear power (15%)
as well as a contribution from carbon capture and storage (6%) – a technology that plays an
equally significant role in cutting emissions from the industry sector. Electric cars move into the
mainstream quickly, but decarbonising the transport sector also requires much more stringent
efficiency measures across the board, notably for road freight.
The sustainable development scenarioRelative to other recent decarbonisation scenarios20402100Emissions
from scenarios projecting global temperature rise of around 1.7-
1.8°C:20002010202020302040205020602070208020902100-30-20-10010203040World Energy Outlook
2017, IEASustainable DevelopmentScenario (SDS)From SDS towards 2CFrom SDS towards 1.5C
Gt CO2
The 2030 targets for renewables and efficiency that are defined in the Sustainable Development
agenda are met or exceeded in this scenario; renewables and efficiency are the key mechanisms
to drive forward the low-carbon transition and reduce pollutant emissions. Considering the inter-
linkages between them and aligning policy and market frameworks – notably in the residential
sector – is essential to ensure cost-efficient outcomes. The provision of highly efficient appliances,
combined with decentralised renewables, also play a major role in extending full access to

electricity and clean cooking, especially in rural communities and isolated settlements that are
hard to reach with the grid.
Natural gas and the clean energy transitions
As oil and coal fall back and renewables ramp up strongly, natural gas becomes the largest single
fuel in the global mix in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Securing clear climate benefits
from gas use depends on credible action to minimise leaks of methane – a potent greenhouse gas
– to the atmosphere.
Consumption of natural gas rises by nearly 20% to 2030 in the Sustainable Development Scenario
and remains broadly at this level to 2040. The contribution of gas varies widely across regions,
between sectors and over time in this scenario. In energy systems heavily reliant on coal (as in
China and India), where renewable alternatives are less readily available (notably in some
industrial sectors), or where seasonal flexibility is required to integrate high shares of variable
renewables, gas plays an important role.
Stepping up action to tackle methane leaks along the oil and gas value chain is essential to
bolster the environmental case for gas: these emissions are not the only anthropogenic emissions
of methane, but they are likely to be among the cheapest to abate. We present the first global
analysis of the costs of abating the estimated 76 million tonnes of methane emitted worldwide
each year in oil and gas operations, which suggest that 40-50% of these emissions can be
mitigated at no net cost, because the value of the captured methane could cover the abatement
measures.
Implementing these measures in the New Policies Scenario would have the same impact on
reducing the average global surface temperature rise in 2100 as shutting all existing coal-fired
power plants in China.

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase Febrauary 2018 K. Al Awadi

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