To prepare for this Assignment· Review this week’s Learning Res.docx

To prepare for this Assignment:
· Review this week’s Learning Resources. Consider how to
assess and treat clients requiring bipolar therapy.
The Assignment
Examine Case Study: An Asian American Woman With Bipolar
Disorder. You will be asked to make three decisions concerning
the medication to prescribe to this client. Be sure to consider
factors that might impact the client’s pharmacokinetic and
pharmacodynamic processes.
At each decision point stop to complete the following:
· Decision #1
· Which decision did you select?
· Why did you select this decision? Support your response with
evidence and references to the Learning Resources.
· What were you hoping to achieve by making this decision?
Support your response with evidence and references to the
Learning Resources.
· Explain any difference between what you expected to achieve
with Decision #1 and the results of the decision. Why were they
different?
· Decision #2
Learning Resources.
different?
· Decision #3

Learning Resources.
different?
Also include how ethical considerations might impact your
treatment plan and communication with clients.
1
Shridhik John
CSE 171B
S. Desa
Final Examination
PROBLEM 1: PLANNING
Activity Matrix:
A B C D E F G
A A
B X B
C X X C
D X X D
E X X E
F X X F
X G

*Waterfall Method
Key
A – Problem 2: SCM Design/Analysis Framework
B – Problem 3: Optimal Lot Size and Cycle Inventory for SPC
C – Problem 4: Safety Inventory for Polystyrene Resin at SPC
D – Problem 5: Sourcing for SPC
E – Problem 6: Transportation Design for SPC
F – Problem7: Execution of your plan
G – Extra Credit
2
GANTT Chart:

PERT Chart:
CPM:
A à B à C à D à E à F à G
PROBLEM 2: SCM DESIGN/ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
Step One: Define the Problem
You have been hired as a consultant by Poly (formerly
Plantronics), a medium-sized
company “headquartered” in Santa Cruz, which is the world
leader in communication head-sets.
You have been asked to design their supply chain all the way
from “high-level” concerns (e.g.,
competitive strategy, “alignment”), through analysis/procedures
(e.g., inventory management
models) to the actual integrated software that will be used to
manage their Supply Chain.
Describe the high-level framework (process) for performing
supply chain management from
strategy to planning to operations for a typical high-tech
product.

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Ta
sk
1 2 3 4 5
Days
A B C D E F G
3
Create appropriate diagrams to help them visualize the structure
of your framework and
associated procedures.

Step Two: Treatment Plan
Information Available:
Ø Lecture Notes
Ø SCM, C&M
Ø Online Resources
Assumptions:
Ø I will be assuming the role of a supply chain analyst for
Plantronics.
Plan:
1) Assess the high-level framework for performing SCM
2) Draw diagrams that explain this framework
Step Three: Execute the Plan
There are many key features and functions of the high-level
framework for performing supply
chain management. We can split this framework up into three
key parts: strategy, planning, and
operations, in which we will assess the SC strategy, the four key
drivers (inventory, facilities,
transportation, and information) and demand forecasting.
Strategy: To develop a SC strategy, we must follow a 3-step
process. The first step includes
understanding the customer’s needs, determining where the
product lies in its market life cycle,
and determining the product’s IDU and placing it on the IDU
spectrum. IDU, or implied demand
uncertainty, refers to the uncertainty in demand for the product

implied by the customer need for
the product during its life-cycle. Poly, being a medium-sized
communication head-set company,
will have a somewhat high IDU since it creates new models of
existing products.
The second step is to establish the corresponding competitive
strategy for the given product and
to determine and map the trade-off between responsiveness and
efficiency for the product based
on the competitive strategy. Responsiveness refers to the ability
of the SC to respond rapidly to a
variety of customer demands and efficiency refers to the cost of
making, storing, and delivering
Low IDU Somewhat
Low IDU
Somewhat
High IDU
High IDU
Plantronics
IDU Spectrum
4
the product to the customer. In any supply chain, increasing

responsiveness decreased efficiency
and vice versa. We must map this trade-off with a
responsiveness/efficiency spectrum.
The third and final step of developing a SC strategy is to create
a 2-D space where the IDU
spectrum is the x-axis and the responsiveness/efficiency
spectrum is the y-axis where we define a
zone of strategic fit and position the SC strategy for the product
at the appropriate location in the
zone of strategic fit. It is important to expand the zone of
strategic fit to include all of the
organizational functions in the company for all stages in the
supply chain.
Highly
Efficient
Somewhat
Efficient
Somewhat
Responsive
Highly
Responsive
Plantronics
Responsiveness/Efficiency Spectrum
High Resp/

Low Eff
Plantronics
Low Resp/
High Eff
Resp/Eff
IDU Low IDU High IDU
Zone of Strategic Fit
5
Planning: / number. Cycle inventory management refers the
calculating the optimal value of the
lot size (amount of good in each order between two adjacent
stages of the supply chain), given
the annual demand, in order to minimize the sum of the annual
material, shipping, and inventory
holding costs. There are many metrics that are important to
calculate such as the flow time, the
average amount of time that one unit of supply is held in
inventory, shipment frequency, and
more.
Operations: In a supply chain, the operations refer to safety
inventory management and
transportation between facilities. Safety inventory is the
additional inventory held in order to
meet excess demand in the case that actual demand exceeds the
forecasted demand. In analyzing

safety inventory, it is important to set up a re-order point, or the
time to place another order when
a certain level of inventory is reached. Other important metrics
include the cycle service level
(CSL) which denotes the fraction of replenishment cycles for
which the item is expected to be in
stock and the fill rate (fr), which is the fraction of customer
demand that can be fulfilled from
available inventory during each replenishment cycle. In terms of
facilities, a company must
determine the role, location, and capacity of the facility in order
to minimize total cost, or in
other words, maximize SC efficiency. For transportation, the
mode of transportation to minimize
total cost and the level of aggregation must be determined. It is
also crucial that the company has
a strong IT Infrastructure that allows for simple and efficient
communication.
Overall, we can demonstrate this framework with the following
diagram:
Step Four: Check your Work

The work I have conducted is correct in every detail, as I have
successfully answered the question using information about the
high-level framework for
Determine
Competitive Strategy
and Customer Needs
Determine SC
Performance
(responsiveness/
efficiency) and IDU
Demand Forecasting
Optimization of Four
Key Drivers
Inventory Management
Facilities
Transportation
IT Infrastructure
6
performing supply chain management using information from
the lectures and the textbook. My
assumptions are reasonable, and in terms of what I know the
results make sense.

Step Five: Learn and Generalize
I have solidified my understanding of the process for
performing supply chain management. I
have recognized that there are three main parts: strategy,
planning, and operations, as well as the
importance of demand forecasting and the four key drivers. My
assumptions have not affected
my results and I believe my results are good enough the act on.
PROBLEM 3: Optimal Lot Size and Cycle Inventory for SPC
Specialty Packaging Corporation (SPC) buys polystyrene resin
from a supplier in 1000-pound
units, and each unit costs $20.00, and the percent holding cost
is 12% (changed from 10%). The
fixed shipping cost per order is $300 and we can assume that
1000 pounds of resin yields 1000
pounds of clear plastic. Calculate the optimal lot size and the
required cycle inventory for
polystyrene resin.
Ø Lecture Notes
Ø SCM, C&M
Ø SPC Cast Study (from the midterm)

Assumptions:
Ø I will be assuming the role of a supply chain analyst for SPC.
Ø I will be using my forecasted demand for 2007 (36,594) from
the Midterm as the annual
demand for polystyrene resin
Plan:
1) Review lecture notes/textbook for information on optimal lot
size/cycle inventory
2) Use appropriate equations to calculate optimal lot size and
cycle inventory
7
D (Annual Demand) = 28770
S(Set up cost) = $300
d1 = 1000 pound units
h (holding cost per year) = 20%
C(unit cost) = $25

Optimal Lot Size:
Plugging in our values for each variable, we then get:
�"∗ =
2 28770 300
0.20 25
= 1858.06 = 1859 ��
Now that we have calculated our optimal lot size, we can
calculate safety inventory using the
following equation:
�� =
1859
2
= 929.5 = 930 ��
Percent Holding Cost of 10%
(Midterm)
Percent Holding Cost of 12%
(Final)
Optimal Lot Size, �"∗ 2,164 units 1859 units
Cycle Inventory 1,082 units 930 units

The work I have conducted is correct in every detail since I
have used the correct data and the
formulas shown in class and in the textbook. My assumptions
are reasonable, and in terms of
what I know the results make sense.
8
By increasing the percent holding cost, we can see that the
optimal lot size and cycle inventory
decrease. This makes sense because in our equation for
determining optimal lot size, the percent
holding cost is on the denominator, so dividing by a larger
number will lead to a smaller result.
Cycle inventory is simply half of the optimal lot size, so
obviously this will follow the same
pattern. My assumption to use my forecasted demand form the
Midterm has affected the
quantities calculated, and I believe my results are good enough
to act on.
PROBLEM 4: SAFETY INVENTORY FOR POLYSTYRENE
RESIN AT SPC
Subproblem 1: Why should SPC have a safety inventory? What
is the average weekly demand
for black plastic (and therefore polystyrene resin) for 2007? If

the coefficient of variation (cv) for
black plastic is 0.25, what is the standard deviation in the
weekly demand?
Subproblem 2: The polystyrene supplier has a lead-time of 2
weeks. SPC would like its Cycle
Service Level (CSL) to be 0.95. Determine the necessary safety
inventory (safety stock) level for
polystyrene resin for a continuous replenishment policy? What
is the re-order point (ROP)?
What is the fill rate? What is the average inventory? What is the
average flow time?
Subproblem 3: Create a diagram that shows all the relevant
quantities from part (b).
Subproblem 4: In general, is the demand during the lead-time
greater than or less than the lot
size? Explain your answer with the help of the diagram from
part (c).
Ø Lecture Notes
Ø SCM, C&M
Ø SPC Cast Study (from the midterm)
Assumptions:

Ø I will be using my results from Problem 3 for all calculations
Plan:
1) Review lecture notes and the textbook for information on
safety inventory
2) Determine why SPC should have a safety inventory
3) Use the given information and appropriate equations to
calculate the desired quantities
4) Create a diagram to show all relevant quantities
9
Subproblem 1: Safety Inventory, Weekly Demand, Coefficient
Variation
SPC should have a safety inventory in the event that the actual
demand exceeds the
predicted/forecasted demand. It is crucial that SPC hold
additional inventory to meet this
potential excess in demand so that they do not forego any sales
and maximize revenue.
The average weekly demand for clear plastic for 2007 can be
found by dividing the annual
demand (which was found using Winter’s Model on the
Midterm) by the number of weeks in a
year, 52.

�� , �G =
�
52
=
28770
52
= 553.269 ��/��
Now that we have found our average weekly demand, we can
calculate the standard deviation in
the weekly demand. Since we know that the cv for clear plastic
is 0.20, we can use the following
equation:
�� =
�G
�G
0.25 =
�G
553.269
�G = 553 ∗ 0.25 = 138.317.8 = 139 ��
Subproblem 2: Safety Stock Quantities:
We are given the following information:

Lead-Time (L) 2 weeks
CSL 0.95
Average Weekly Demand (Dw) 553 units
Standard Deviation in Weekly Demand (�G) 139 units
Safety Stock (ss):
The first step is to calculate the standard deviation of the
average weekly demand in terms of the
lead-time.
Optimal Lot Size:
10
= L∗ LM,NLO PQRST∗ $NOO
(.LO)LW
= 1,875 units
Next, we will use the following equation, in which we use the
standard deviation found above,
desired CSL, and the NORMSINV function to determine the
necessary level of safety stock.
�� = �TYZ �� ∗ �"
�� = �TYZ 0.95 ∗ 197

�� = 1.65 ∗ 197 = 325.05 = 325 ��
Re-Order Point (ROP):
Now that we have calculated the necessary level of safety stock,
we can calculate the ROP. The
first step is to calculate the average demand based on the lead-
time.
�" = � ∗ �G
�" = 2 ∗ 553 = 1106 ��
Then, we can use the following equation to calculate ROP:
�� = �" + ��
�� = 1106 + 325 = 1431 ��
Fill Rate (fr):
To calculate fill rate, we must first calculate the expected
shortage per replenishment cycle
(ESC) using the following equation:
�� = −�� 1 − �T
��
�"
+ �"�T
��
�"
�� = −325 1 − �T
325

197
+ 197 ∗ �T
325
197
�� = −325 1 − 0.96 + 197 ∗ 0.086
�� = −325 ∗ 0.04 + 197 ∗ 0.086
�� = 3.942
Now that we have our ESC and we know QL = 1875 from the
Midterm, we can calculate fill rate.
�� =
�" − ��
�"
11
�� =
197 − 3.942
197
= 0.979 = 97.9%
Average Inventory:
The average inventory is simply the sum of the cycle inventory

and safety stock. We know the
cycle inventory is 938 units from the Midterm and the safety
stock is 325 units, we get:
�� = ��
+ ��
�� = 938 + 325 = 1263
��
Average Flow Time:
To calculate the average flow time, we must first calculate the
average flow rate which is equal
to the daily demand:
�� =
�G
7
=
553
7
= 79 = 79
�� =
��
��
�� =
1263
79
= 15.9 = 16 ��

Subproblem 3: Diagram of Quantities
Lot Size (Q) 1875 units
Cycle Inventory 938 units
Weekly Demand (Dw) 553 units
Daily Demand (DD) 79 units
Standard Deviation in Weekly Demand
(��)
139 units
Lead-Time (L) 2 weeks
Demand During Lead-Time (DL) 1,408 units
Standard Deviation During Lead Time (σL) 197 units
Expected Shortage per Replenishment
Cycle (ESC)
3.942
Safety Stock (ss) 325 units
Re-Order Point (ROP) 1431 units
Fill Rate (fr) 97.9%
12

Average Inventory 1,263 units
Average Flow Time 16 days
Subproblem 4: Demand during Lead-Time vs. Lot Size
According to the table above, we can see that the demand during
the lead-time (DL), at 1,408
units, is much smaller than the lot size of 1,875 units. This
makes sense since SPC will not be
able to get more product for about 2 weeks, so it is important
that they order more than the
expected demand for those 2 weeks at a time. In other words,
the lot size must be able to meet
expected demand.
I have checked my work by double checking all calculations
with Excel and by ensuring that I
used the correct formulas for each quantity. My assumptions are
reasonable, and in terms of what
I know the results make sense.
I have furthered my understanding of calculating safety stock,
ROP, fill rate, average inventory,
and average flow time. I have also learned how to use Excel to
help with these calculations.
Since I have used data from my Midterm, my results might vary

from other students due to
differing previous calculations. However, I believe that my
results are correct and good enough
to act on.
PROBLEM 5: SOURCING FOR SPC
Subproblem 1: Which supplier should Julie choose, based on
minimizing total cost, if her
inventory holding cost h=0.12 and her desired target CSL =
96%.
Subproblem 2: Create a supplier scorecard that Julie can use to
compare different suppliers.
Ø Lecture Notes
Ø SCM, C&M
Ø SPC Cast Study (from the Midterm)
13
Assumptions:

Plan:
1) Read the first four sections on “Sourcing Decision in a
Supply Chain” from the textbook
2) Calculate the total costs for each supplier
3) Determine which supplier Julie should choose
4) Create a supplier scorecard that Julie can use to compare
different suppliers
Supplier Information:
Supplier 1 Supplier 2
Unit Cost (C) $20/unit $15/unit
Average Lead Time (L) 1 week 2 weeks
Standard Deviation of Lead
Time (σL)
0.5 week 1 week
Lot Size (QL) 3,000 units 5,000 units
We also know the following:
Annual Demand (D) 28770 units
Weekly Demand (Dw) 553

Standard Deviation of Weekly Demand (σw) 139
Holding Cost (h) 0.20
CSL 0.96
Subproblem 1: Determine Cheapest Supplier
Now, we will calculate the total costs of each supplier to
determine which one Julie should
choose.
Supplier 1 Supplier 2
Annual Material Cost = D*C 28770 *20 = $575,400 28770 *15
= $431,550
14
Cycle Inventory = ij
L
3000
2
= 1,500
5000
2
= 2,500
Annual Cost of Holding
Inventory = hC*ij

L
0.20*20*1000 = $4,000 0.12*15*2000 = $6000
Std. Dev. of Demand during
Lead Time = σw*σL
139*0.5 = 69.5 units 139*1 = 139 units
Safety Inventory =
��kL + �GL�"L ∗ 1.75
(CSL = 96%)
1 ∗ 139L + 553L 0.5L ∗
1.75 = 540.79 units
2 ∗ 139L + 553L 1L ∗
1.75 = 1,026 units
Annual Cost of Holding
Safety Inventory = ss*hC
325*0.20*20 = $1300
325*0.20*15 = $975
Annual Supplier Cost =
CM+CI
575,400+4000+1300 =
$580700

431550+6000+1026 =
$438576
Final Decision: Upon completing these calculations, we can see
that Supplier 1 has an annual
supplier cost of $580700 and Supplier 2 has an annual supplier
cost of $438576, so we can
conclude that Julie should choose Supplier 2.
Subproblem 2: Supplier Scorecard
Julie can use the following scorecard to compare different
suppliers.
Category Weight (1-5) Metric
Unit Cost 4 USD
Average Lead Time 4 Weeks
Lot Size 3 Units
Shipping Cost 3 USD
Quality 4 N/A
Step Four: Check Your Work
I have checked my work and ensured that all of my calculations
and answers are correct in every
detail. I have computed all calculations twice to ensure the right
numbers were used. My

assumptions are reasonable, and in terms of what I know the
results make sense.
15
I have learned how to compare different suppliers to determine
which one will minimize total
cost. I also learned what a supplier scorecard is and how it can
be used to help with sourcing. My
results have not been affected by my assumptions, and I believe
my results are good enough to
act on.
PROBLEM 6: TRANSPORTATION DESIGN FOR SPC
Subproblem 1: Create the appropriate table in Excel for
comparing rail versus truck delivery
options for modes of transportation for transporting polystyrene
resin from the PR supplier to
SPC.
Subproblem 2: Use the table from (a) to select the optimal mode
of transportation. Provide
quantitative evidence to support your selection. (Make the
appropriate assumptions about
transportation and other costs.)

Ø Lecture Notes
Ø SCM, C&M
Assumptions:
Ø I will be assuming the role of a supply chain analyst for SPC
Plan:
1) Read the section on “Trade-offs in Transportation design”
2) Create a table in Excel that compares rail versus truck
delivery options
3) Use the table to select the optimal mode of transportation and
provide quantitative
evidence to support your selection
Subproblem 1: Rail vs. Truck Delivery
The mode of transportation decision affects the cycle inventory,
safety inventory, and in-transit
inventory for SPC. Therefore, we must evaluate the total
transportation and inventory cost for
each transportation options. We will now compute all necessary
quantities using the following
equations in Excel:
Cycle Inventory = i

L
16
Safety Inventory = "
L
��
In-Transit Inventory = � ∗ lmnT RQ SomQTRS
NpW
Total Average Inventory = Cycle Inventory + Safety Inventory
+ In-Transit Inventory
Annual holding Cost = Total Average Inventory * hC
Annual Transportation Cost = D * Transportation Cost per unit
Total Annual Cost for Inventory and Transportation = Annual
Holding Cost + Annual
Transportation Cost
Rail transit time = 5
Rail replenish lead time = supplier lead time + Rail transit time
= 14 + 5 = 19
Truck transit time = 3 days
Truck replenish lead time = supplier lead time + Truck transit
time = 14 + 3 = 17

Hypothesized Lot Size = 4,000
Using Excel to compute these equations, we get:
17
Subproblem 2: Decision
According to the spreadsheet above, we can see that the total
transportation cost for rail is
$1,882,785.70 while the transportation cost of trucks are
$2,169,539.84, so we can conclude that
the optimal mode of transportation is rail.
I have checked my work to the best of my ability by ensuring
that I used the correct equations
and by computing all calculations twice. My assumptions are
reasonable, and in terms of what I
know my results make sense.
I have learned how to determine which mode of transportation
minimizes the total inventory and

transportation cost. In the case of SPC, we can see that their
supply chain would be more
profitable if they use rail as their mode of transportation as
opposed to trucks. My assumptions
have not affected my results, and I believe my results are good
enough to act on.
PROBLEM 7: EXECUTION OF YOUR PLAN
Step 1: Define the Problem:
Use a table to compare your plan from Problem 1 (column 1)
with its execution (column 2).
Indicate the reasons for the difference between the plan and its
execution (column 3). Add
18
additional columns to capture recommendations for improved
execution of your plans in the
future. Write down three key lessons you learned in this course.
Step 2: Treatment Plan
Make a table, and write three notes
Step 4: Execute

Original Plan Actual Execution Reason for
Difference
Ways to Improve
Problem 2: 1 Hour 1.5 Hours Initially
misinterpreted the
question
Understand the
question completely
before attempting
Problem 3: 0.5 Hours 0.5 Hours N/A N/A
Problem 4: 1 Hour 2 Hours Had to spend time
reviewing equations;
typing equations into
Word
Memorize the
equations throughout
the quarter
Problem 5: 1.5 Hours 1.5 Hours N/A N/A
Problem 6: 1.5 Hours 2 Hours Was unfamiliar with
how to compare
transportation costs
Read textbook ahead

of time
Problem 8: 2 Hours 2 Hours N/A N/A
Extra Credit: 1 Hour 1 Hour N/A N/A
19
THREE KEY LESSONS
1. Supply Chain Management is a long process that is very
equation heavy. I should remember to
save these formulas for future reference
2. There are multiple ways to go about transportation and
setting up a supply chain system. It is
always best to look for the most efficient opportunity available.
3. Your company can either be highly responsive, or highly
efficient, it’s hard to be both.
Check your work:
Is the work correctly in every detail? Yes Are the
assumptions/planning reasonable? Yes Does
the result make sense? Yes
Learn and Generalize:
It’s always important to track of progress. This exam was a
really good practice at helping me
understand the material, as well as a solid example of how I

should pace my work. Despite all
the difficulties this quarter threw at us, I hope I will get a solid
grades on this.
CSE 171B/270B, MOT II: FINAL
EXAMINATION
S. Desa, CSE 171B207B Final
Author: Zhaowei Gu
Students Identification Number: 1523932
Institution: University of California Santa Cruz
Instructor: S. Desa.
02/17/2020
1. Planning (5 points)
Define the Problem:
Create a plan and time schedule for completing the final exam.
Use an appropriate table
(see Problem 7 below) to track how well you execute your

schedule and make notes on
any obstacles and problems you encounter.
Plan the treatment of the problem:
1. Create a project plan
2. Finished problem 6 below
Execute the plan:
Project Plan
Status
Thursday, 12 March 2020 Receive the Final Examination, read
through it
and ask questions if needed.
✅
Friday, 13 March 2020 Start on Question 1 & 7 ✅
Saturday, 14 March 2020 Start and finish on Question 2 & 3
✅
Sunday, 15 March 2020 Start on Question 4 & 5 ✅
Monday, 16 March 2020 Finish on Question 4 & 5
Start on Question 6
✅
Tuesday, 17 March 2020 Due Date 5 PM
Finish on Question 6
Finish Question 1 & 7
Double-check the works

✅
PROBLEM 2: SCM DESIGN/ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
(1.0 HOUR, 10 POINTS)
Define the Problem:
Plantronics), a medium-sized
company “headquartered” in Santa Cruz, which is the world
leader in communication
headsets. You have been asked to design their supply chain all
the way from “high-level”
concerns (e.g., competitive strategy, “alignment”), through
analysis/procedures (e.g.,
inventory management models) to the actual integrated software
that will be used to
manage their Supply Chain.
Before you start, Poly has asked you to do the following:
a) Describe the high-level framework (process) for performing
supply chain
management from strategy to planning to operations for a
typical high-tech
product.
b) Create appropriate diagrams to help them visualize the
structure of your
framework and associated procedures.
1. Answer Q#1

2. Answer Q#2
Execute the plan:
1. Describe the high-level framework (process) for performing
supply chain management
from strategy to planning to operations for a typical high-tech
product
1. Create a Competitive Strategy:
Figure out the competitive strategy that would be the best fit
based on
other players’ strategies.
2. Create a Product Development Strategy:
a. Figure out the product development strategy that would be
the best fit the
company
3. Supply Chain Strategy:
a. Define the SC strategy, to be aligned with the competitive
strategy
b. Design the supply chain to properly meet objectives for
managing
inventory, facilities, transportation, and easy communication of
information.
c. Determine the position on the IDU (Implied demand
uncertainty) spectrum
d. Map the SC strategy onto a responsiveness spectrum
e. Determine where the company is located in the zone of
strategic fit and

figure out how the company can expand the scope of strategic
fit across
the entire supply chain
f. Determine the SC tradeoff between cost and responsiveness
4. Market Strategy (Demand Forecasting):
a. Gather demand data from the market analysis and cash-flow
analysis
b. Perform demand forecasting using the static method to
compute initial
estimates of the level, trend, and seasonality
c. Develop a product life-cycle model to determine where the
company
should lie in the zone of strategic fit
d. Perform demand forecasting using Moving Average, Simple
Exponential
Smoothing, Holt’s Model, and Winter’s Model.
e. Plot the data
f. Determine which forecasting method is the best forecasting
method
5. Inventory Management (Cycle Inventory)
a. Determine the optimal lot size and the optimal shipping
frequency
b. Determine the lowest inventory size (safety inventory) that
can be stocked
for cost efficiency
c. Use aggregation to determine various costs. Use various

kinds of
aggregation such as simple aggregation and tailored aggregation
for best
results.
6. Transportation
a. Determine which mode of transportation minimizes total cost
by different
modes of transportation
b. Understand the best placement of facilities to reduce
transportation costs
to customers
c. Explore tailed transportation by customer density and
distance as well as
by-product demand and value
2. Create appropriate diagrams to help them visualize the
structure of your framework
and associated procedures.
1. Create Porter’s fix (six) model to get a better view of the
market. (associated with
competitive strategy)
2. Determine the Plantronics competitive strategy.

3. Create an Efficiency/Responsiveness, IDU and strategic fit
diagram, product life
cycle diagram
4. Creating a cycle inventory diagram to visualize when
Plantronics should re-order
for new stock.
Check your work:
Is the work correctly in every detail?
Yes
Are the assumptions/planning reasonable?
Yes
Does the result make sense?
Yes
I checked all the work I did, they’re all perfectly done.
I learned how to properly go through the process of approaching
a supply chain network.

PROBLEM 3: OPTIMAL LOT SIZE AND CYCLE
INVENTORY FOR SPECIALTY PACKAGING
COMPANY (SPC) (0.5 HOURS, 10 POINTS)
Define the Problem:
If, in Problem 4 of the midterm, the holding cost h = 0.20
(rather than h = 0.15), what is
optimal lot size and the required cycle inventory for polystyrene
resin? Use these new
numerical values in the problems below.
Go back to the midterm and recalculate the optimal lot size and
required cycle inventory
for black plastic for new holding cost h = 0.2
Execute the plan:
Go back to the midterm and recalculate the optimal lot size and
required cycle inventory
for black plastic for new holding cost h = 0.2
S(Set up cost) = $300
d1 = 1000 pound units
h (holding cost per year) = 20%
C(unit cost) = $25
Optimal lot size:
858.06 units/shipments Q*L = √ hC2DS = √
0.2×252×28770×300 = 1
Cycle inventory:
29.03 units2
Q*L = 2

1858.06 = 9
Check your work:
Yes
Yes
Yes
I have a better understanding of how to calculate economic
order quality, optimal lot size,
and cycle inventory.
PROBLEM 4: SAFETY INVENTORY FOR
POLYSTYRENE RESIN AT SPC (1 HOUR, 20 POINTS)
Define the Problem:
Use the results from Problem 3 for all calculations.
Answer the following questions about safety inventory for
polystyrene resin at SPC:
a) Why should SPC have a safety inventory? What is the
average weekly demand for
black plastic (and therefore polystyrene resin) for 2007? If the
coefficient of
variation (cv) for black plastic is 0.25, what is the standard
deviation in the weekly

demand?
b) The polystyrene supplier has a lead-time of 2 weeks. SPC
would like its Cycle
Service Level (CSL) to be 0.95. Determine the necessary safety
inventory (safety
stock) level for polystyrene resin for a continuous
replenishment policy. What is
the Re-order Point (ROP)? What is the fill rate? What is the
average inventory?
What is the average flow time?
c) Create a diagram that shows all the relevant quantities from
part (b).
d) In general, is the demand during the lead-time greater than or
less than the lot
size? Explain your answer with the help of the diagram from
part (c).
1. Answer Q#1
2. Answer Q#2
3. Answer Q#3
4. Answer Q#4
Execute the plan:
1. Why should SPC have a safety inventory? What is the
average weekly demand for
black plastic (and therefore polystyrene resin) for 2007? If the
coefficient of variation (cv)
for black plastic is 0.25, what is the standard deviation in the
weekly demand?
The reason why SPC should have safety inventory is that when

consumer’s present
demand that exceeds the forecasted demand it can help prevents
the product shortage.
The average weekly demand for black plastic is, (52 weeks in a
year)DW = 52
annual demand
53.269 units/weekDW = 52
28770 = 5
The standard deviation of weekly demand with a coefficient
variance of 0.25
w 0.25 53.269 .25 38.317units/week= D * = 5 × 0 = 1
2. The polystyrene supplier has a lead-time of 2 weeks. SPC
would like its Cycle Service
Level (CSL) to be 0.95. Determine the necessary safety
inventory (safety stock) level for
polystyrene resin for a continuous replenishment policy. What
is the Re-order Point
(ROP)? What is the fill rate? What is the average inventory?
What is the average flow
time?
Given Data:
Average weekly demand, DW = 553.269 units
Standard deviation of weekly demand, = 138.317
Lead time, L = 2 weeks
CSL = 0.95
QL* = 1858.06
From the sheet of the statistical table, we know that 1.65s (0.95)

F −1 =
s .65 38.317 22.756s = 1 × 1 × √2 = 3
The formula for Re-order point, ROP is
OP sR = DL + s
53.269 106.54DL = DW × L = 5 × 2 = 1
OP 106.54 22.756 429.29R = 1 + 3 = 1
Standard deviation of demand during L periods = 38.317
95.61√2 × 1 = 1
Level of safety inventory,
SC − 22.756[1 s( )] 95.61 s( )E = 3 − F 195.61
322.756 + 1 × F 195.61
138.317
SC − 22.756[1 s(1.65)] 95.61 s(1.65) E = 3 − F + 1 × F
SC − 22.756[1 .95] 95.61 .95E = 3 − 0 + 1 × 0
SC − 22.756[1 .95] 95.61 .95 69.692E = 3 − 0 + 1 × 0 = 1
Fill rate = 90.9%1858.06 69.692)/1858.06 9085 F r = ( − 1 = .
=
Average inventory = /2 = 929.03 units858.06 1
Average flow time = = / (2 * 553.269) = 1.68 days858.06 1
3. Create a diagram that shows all the relevant quantities from
part (b).
4. In general, is the demand during the lead-time greater than or

less than the lot size?
Explain your answer with the help of the diagram from part (c).
Based on the result I got, we can see the demand during the
lead-time is less than the lot
size which 553 < 1858. And the demand during the lead-time
suppose to be less than the
lot size because then that will avoid the backlog.
Check your work:
Yes
Yes
Yes
I learned how inventory cycling works and different equivalent
terms. I have learned the
data correlates to reorder point. I have better understand how to
calculate economic
order quality, optimal lot size, and total inventory costs.
PROBLEM 5: SOURCING FOR SPC (0.5-1.0 HOUR
FOR READING; 0.5-1 HOUR TO SOLVE THE
PROBLEM; 25 POINTS)
Define the Problem:
Read the first four sections on “Sourcing Decisions in a Supply
Chain” from the textbook
(Sections 14.1-14.4 Third Edition/Fourth Edition). Use the

results from Problem 3 for all
calculations.
Julie Williams needs to make a choice between the following 2
suppliers of polystyrene
resin:
● Supplier 1 : unit cost = $20 per unit (1 unit =1000lb.);
average lead time= 1 week;
standard deviation of lead time = 0.5 week; Batch or lot size
=3000 units
● Supplier 2 : unit cost = $15 per unit (1 unit =1000lb.);
average lead time= 2 weeks;
standard deviation of lead time = 1 week; Batch or lot size =
5000 units
Answer the following questions:
a) Which supplier should Julie choose, based on minimizing
total cost, if her
inventory holding cost h = 0.20 and her desired target CSL =
95%?
b) Create a supplier scorecard that Julie can use to compare
different suppliers.
(Hint: Use the Utility Function approach developed in CSE
171A/270A for choosing
between alternatives, as well as ideas from the text.)
1. Answer Q#1
2. Answer Q#2
Execute the plan:

Given Data:
Average weekly demand, DW = 553.269 units
Holding cost = 0.2
CSL = 0.95
Supplier 1: unit cost = $20 per unit (1 unit =1000lb.); average
lead time= 1 week;
standard deviation of lead time = 0.5 week; Batch or lot size
=3000 units
Supplier 2: unit cost = $15 per unit (1 unit =1000lb.); average
lead time= 2 weeks;
standard deviation of lead time = 1 week; Batch or lot size =
5000 units
Standard deviation of weekly demand, = 138.317
Equation:
● Annual material cost = demand * 52 * selling price
● Average cycle inventory = lot size / 2
● Annual cost of holding cycle inventory = Average cycle
inventory * sell price *
holding cost
● Standard deviation of demand during lead time = SQRT(avg
lead time * St.d of
demand * avg cycle inventory * St.d of lead time)
● Safety inventory required with current supplier = Fs^-
1(CSL)* standard deviation of
demand during lead time
● Annual cost of holding safety inventory = safety inventory
required with current

supplier * sell price * holding cost
1.
Supplier 1:
● Annual material cost = demand * 52 * selling price =
553.269 * 52 * 20 = $575400
● Average cycle inventory = lot size / 2 = 3000/2 = 1500
holding cost = 1500 * 20 * 0.2 = $6000
lead time * St.d of
demand + avg cycle inventory * St.d of lead time) = √1 38.317
000 .5× 1 + 1 × 0
=25.26
demand during lead time = 1.65 * 25.26 = 41.69
supplier * sell price * holding cost = 41.69 *20 *0.2 = $166.75
● Annual cost of using current supplier = 575400 + 6000 +
166.75 = $581567
Supplier 2:
● Annual material cost = demand * 52 * selling price = 553.269
* 52 * 15 = $431550
● Average cycle inventory = lot size / 2 = 5000/2 = 2500

holding cost = 2500 * 15 * 0.2 = $7500
lead time * St.d of
demand + avg cycle inventory * St.d of lead time) = =52.69√2
38.317 500× 1 + 2 × 1
demand during lead time = 1.65 *52.69 = 86.945
supplier * sell price * holding cost = 52.69 * 15 * 0.2 =
$158.08
● Annual cost of using current supplier = 431550 + 7500 +
158.08 = $439208
Based on the calculation, we can see that taking supplier 2’s
option is the most
cost-efficient choice.
2. Create a supplier scorecard that Julie can use to compare
different suppliers.
Data Supplier 1 Supplier 2
Weekly Demand 553.269 553.269
Holding Cost 0.2 0.2

CSL 0.95 0.95
Selling Price 20 15
Average Lead Time 1 2
Standard Deviation of Lead Time 0.5 1
Batch or lot size 3000 5000
Annual Material Cost 575400 431550
Average cycle Inventory 1500 2500
Annual cost of holding cycle inventory 6000 7500
Standard deviation of demand during lead time 25.26 52.69
Safety inventory required with current supplier 41.69 86.945
Annual cost of holding safety inventory 166.75 158.08
Annual cost of using current supplier 581567 439208
Check your work:
Yes
Yes
Yes

Through this problem, I have a better understanding of how to
dissect and provide a
company’s supply chain strategy and its characteristics to better
aid me in the practice of
this method on my project.
PROBLEM 6: TRANSPORTATION DESIGN FOR SPC
(1-1.5 HOURS; 25 POINTS)
Define the Problem:
Read the section on “Trade-offs in Transportation design” from
the textbook (Section
13.5 in Third Edition/Fourth Edition)
Answer the following questions about transportation design for
transporting polystyrene
resin (PR) from the PR supplier to SPC:
a) Create the appropriate table in Excel for comparing rail
versus truck delivery
options for modes of transportation.
b) Use the table from (a) to select the optimal mode of
transportation. Provide
appropriate
assumptions about transportation and other costs).
1. Finish Q#1
2. Finish Q#2

Execute the plan:
1. Create the appropriate table in Excel for comparing rail
versus truck delivery options
for modes of transportation.
Rail:
Replenishment lead time, L= 7 days + 5 days = 12 days
Holding cost = $12 x 0.12 = 1.44
Cycle inventory = Q/2 = 2,000/2 = 1,000 units
Safety Inventory = L/2 days of demand = (12/2)(37808.5/365) =
621.51 units
In-Transit Inventory = 37808.5(5/365) = 517.925 units
Total average inventory = 1,000 + 517.925 + 621.51 = 2139.435
units
Annual Holding Cost = 2139.435x 1.44 = $3080.79
Annual transportation cost = 37808.5 x 6.5 = $245755.25
Total annual cost = $245755.25 + $3080.79= 248836.04
Truck:
Replenishment lead time, L= 7 days + 3 days = 10 days
Holding cost = $10 x 0.12 = 1.2
Cycle inventory = Q/2 = 2,000/2 = 1,000 units
Safety Inventory = L/2 days of demand = (10/2)(37808.5/365) =
517.925units
In-Transit Inventory = 31,292(3/365) = 310.75 units
Total average inventory = 1,000 + 517.925+ 310.75 = 1828.675
units
Annual Holding Cost = 1685.85753425 x 1.5 = $2743.01
Annual transportation cost = 37808.5 x 7.5 = $283563.75
Total annual cost = $2743.01 + $283563.75 = $286306.76

2. Use the table from (a) to select the optimal mode of
transportation. Provide
appropriate assumptions
about transportation and other costs).
Based on the result I got, to minimizes the cost we should select
Rail transportation
because it has lower cost compared to Truck
Check your work:
Yes
Yes
Yes
It was a good review of calculating all the cost factor
comparisons to pick the most
optimal transportation for the lost pricing.
PROBLEM 7: EXECUTION OF YOUR PLAN (0.5
HOURS, 5 POINTS)
Define the Problem:

with its execution (column 2).
Indicate the reasons for the difference between the plan and its
execution (column 3).
Add additional columns to capture recommendations for
improved execution of your
plans in the future. Write down three key lessons you learned in
this course.
Make a table
Column 1: Problem 1 plan
Column 2: Problem 1 plan execution date
Column 3: the reason why there is a difference
Column 4: What I have learned
Execute the plan:
Problem 1 plan Execution date Reason for difference what I
have learned
Receive the Final
Examination, read
through it and ask
questions if needed.
Thursday, 12
March 2020
No difference, plan was
well executed, and
work was done
accurately

No improvements
needed because
everything went as
planned.
Start on Question 1 &
7
Friday, 13
March 2020
This problem is pretty
straight forward, I have
completed this on time
No improvements
needed because
everything went as
planned.
Start and finish on
Question 2 & 3
Saturday, 14
March 2020
A lot to be done, took
me around 5 hr, then I
took a break from it.
It was a really good
practice and I have
a better
understanding after
finish this problem
sets.

Start on Question 4
& 5
Sunday, 15
March 2020
Took a long time for me
to figure out the
equations and numbers
I had some problem
with the calculation
part and was not be
able to finish in one
day because I was
really busy
& 5
Start on Question 6
Monday, 16
March 2020
No difference No improvements
needed because
everything went as
planned.
Due Date 5 PM
Finish Question 1 & 7
Double-check the

works
Tuesday, 17
March 2020
Took longer than what I
thought
took some time and
got some ideas how
to do the Q#6 and
finally finish it in 2
hours.
Check your work:
Yes
Yes
Yes
It’s always important to keep tracking the work progress. This
exam was a really good
practice and I have a better understanding after finish this
problem sets. I had some
problems with the calculation part and was not be able to finish
the problem in one day
because I was really busy Really hard final weeks, hopefully I
will get good grades on
this. For this exam, from my experience, before I am able to
handle the time very well, I
know which part I need to spend more time on.

General Instructions (applicable to all problems)
· All work on examination must be completely your own,
except for research that must be properly attributed and cited.
You must not receive any help from anyone or give any help to
anyone while doing this examination.
· Be sure to use and document a structured problem-solving
approach, and create tables, diagrams, and graphs where
appropriate. In particular, the plan or approach to solve the
problem must clearly and explicitly document all steps and
equations used.Reading (0.5 hours)
Review your solution to the midterm. Correct all mistakes and
omissions on your midterm. You will need some of the results
from midterm in the problems below. On each problem below, if
you use the results from midterm, then clearly state which
results are been used and the numerical values. Problem 1:
Planning (0.5 hours, 5 points)
Create a plan and time-schedule for completing the final exam.
Use an appropriate table (see Problem 7 below) to track how
well you execute your schedule and make notes on any obstacles
and problems you encounter.Problem 2: SCM Design/Analysis
Framework (1.0 hour, 10 points)
Plantronics), a medium-sized company “headquartered” in Santa
Cruz, which is the world leader in communication head-sets.
You have been asked to design their supply chain all the way
from “high-level” concerns (e.g., competitive strategy,
“alignment”), through analysis/procedures (e.g., inventory
management models) to the actual integrated software that will
be used to manage their Supply Chain.
Before you start, Poly has asked you to do the following:
a) Describe the high-level framework (process) for performing
supply chain management from strategy to planning to
operations for a typical high-tech product.
b) Create appropriate diagrams to help them visualize the

structure of your framework and associated procedures. Problem
3: Optimal Lot Size and Cycle Inventory for Specialty
Packaging Company (SPC) (0.5 hours, 10 points)
If, in Problem 4 of the midterm, the holding cost h = 0.20
(rather than h = 0.15), what is optimal lot size and the required
cycle inventory for polystyrene resin? Use these new numerical
values in the problems below.Problem 4: Safety Inventory for
Polystyrene Resin at SPC (1 hour, 20 points)
Use the results from Problem 3 for all calculations.
Answer the following questions about safety inventory for
polystyrene resin at SPC:
a) Why should SPC have a safety inventory? What is the
average weekly demand for black plastic (and therefore
polystyrene resin) for 2007? If the coefficient of variation (cv)
for black plastic is 0.25, what is the standard deviation in the
weekly demand?
b) The polystyrene supplier has a lead-time of 2 weeks. SPC
would like its Cycle Service Level (CSL) to be 0.95. Determine
the necessary safety inventory (safety stock) level for
polystyrene resin for a continuous replenishment policy. What
is the Re-order Point (ROP)? What is the fill rate? What is the
average inventory? What is the average flow time?
c) Create a diagram that shows all the relevant quantities from
part (b).
d) In general, is the demand during the lead-time greater than or
less than the lot size? Explain your answer with the help of the
diagram from part (c).Problem 5: Sourcing for SPC (0.5-1.0
hour for reading; 0.5-1 hour to solve the problem; 25 points)
Read the first four sections on “Sourcing Decisions in a Supply
Chain” from the textbook (Sections 14.1-14.4 Third
Edition/Fourth Edition). Use the results from Problem 3 for all
calculations.
Julie Williams needs to make a choice between the following 2
suppliers of polystyrene resin:

· Supplier 1: unit cost = $20 per unit (1 unit =1000lb.); average
lead time= 1 week; standard deviation of lead time = 0.5 week;
Batch or lot size =3000 units
· Supplier 2: unit cost = $15 per unit (1 unit =1000lb.); average
lead time= 2 weeks; standard deviation of lead time = 1 week;
Batch or lot size = 5000 units
Answer the following questions:
a) Which supplier should Julie choose, based on minimizing
total cost, if her inventory holding cost h = 0.20 and her desired
target CSL = 95%?
b) Create a supplier scorecard that Julie can use to compare
different suppliers. (Hint: Use the Utility Function approach
developed in CSE 171A/270A for choosing between
alternatives, as well as ideas from the text.)Problem 6:
Transportation Design for SPC (1-1.5 hours; 25 points)
Read the section on “Trade-offs in Transportation design” from
the textbook (Section 13.5 in Third Edition/Fourth Edition)
Answer the following questions about transportation design for
transporting polystyrene resin (PR) from the PR supplier to
SPC:
a) Create the appropriate table in Excel for comparing rail
versus truck delivery options for modes of transportation.
b) Use the table from (a) to select the optimal mode of
transportation. Provide quantitative evidence to support your
selection. (Make the appropriate assumptions about
transportation and other costs).Problem 7: Execution of Your
Plan (0.5 hours, 5 points)
with its execution (column 2). Indicate the reasons for the
difference between the plan and its execution (column 3).
Add additional columns to capture recommendations for
improved execution of your plans in the future. Write down
three key lessons you learned in this course.(CSE 270B only)
Problem 8: Pricing (2 hours for reading; 0.5 hours to solve the

problem; 10 points)
Read the first two sections on “Pricing and Revenue
Management in a Supply Chain” from the textbook (Sections
15.1, 15.2 in Third Edition/Fourth Edition).
Summarize the key lessons learned from Section 2. Create a
process for pricing a product for multiple customer segments.
(While CSE 171B students are encouraged to do this problem,
but they will NOT receive extra credit for it.)Extra Credit (5
possible points): Project SCM Software Application
· Apply the SCM software developed in your group project to
solve all the quantitative problems on the Midterm and Final
Exams. What was your contribution to the development of the
SCM software?
· Explain how the company from your group project could use
the SCM software to manage their supply chain. You may want
to start with the supply chain network (diagram) from your
project to describe the information inputs and outputs for the
SCM software.
· Develop an IT architecture (networks, databases, servers, etc.)
for your SCM software to manage the information (driver) for
your supply chain. How would you use this IT system to
minimize the bull-whip effect?
Forecasting Questions
Student Name
University Affiliate

Forecasting Questions
Problem 1: Planning
Step 1: Define – Create a list of all the tasks that require to be
completed so as to complete this examination appropriately and
keep a track of the tasks accordingly
Step 2: Plan – What information is available for solving the
problem? Lecture Notes and Canvas Handouts. The lecture
Notes provided is from Notes on PERT Chart, GRANTT Chart
and Activity Matrix.
Step 3: Execute - Create an activity matrix and a table to make
comparisons on your plan
Activity Matrix
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

x
R
S
x
S
GRANT chart
GANTT CHART

PROJECT TITLE
CSE171B Midterm
COMPANY NAME
CSE171B
PROJECT MANAGER
Shen Cheng
DATE
2/11/2019
WBS NUMBER
TASK TITLE
TASK OWNER
START DATE
END DATE
DURATION
PCT OF TASK COMPLETE

FRIDAY
SATURDAY
SUNDAY
MONDAY
TUESDAY

1
Problem1: Planning
1.1
Activity Matrix
Shen Cheng

2/7/20
2/7/20
1
100%
1.2
GANTT chart
Shen Cheng
2/7/20
2/11/20
1
100%

1.3
PERT Chart
Shen Cheng
2/7/20
2/11/20
1
100%

1.4
Keep track of each task and document
Completion
Shen Cheng
2/7/20
2/11/20
100%

2.1
Read the Specialty Packaging Corporation Case
Study
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/8/20
1
100%

2.2
Competitive Strategy
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/8/20
1
100%

2.3
Supply Chain Strategy
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/8/20
1
100%

2.4
Where does SPC lie in the zone of strategic fit
between IDU and responsiveness?
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/8/20
1
100%

2.5
Identify what SPC’s high-level SC strategy
should be for each of the SC drivers.
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/8/20
1
100%

3.1
Form Hypothesis
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/10/20
1
100%

3.2
Forecast Demand for black plastic using the 5
Methods
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/10/20
1
100%

3.3
Identify the better method for Black plastic.
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/10/20
1
100%

3.4
Was the Hypothesis Correct?
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/10/20
1
100%

3.5
Forecast Demand for 2007Black plastic.
Shen Cheng
2/8/20
2/10/20
1
100%

Why should SPC have a cycle inventory?
What are the following values for black plastic?
Shen Cheng
2/10/20
2/10/20
1
100%
4.2
Shen Cheng
2/10/20

2/10/20
1
100%
4.3
Short-Term Discounting
Shen Cheng
2/10/20
2/10/20
100%

5.1
Should SPC have a safety inventory? Why? How much safety
inventory would you recommend
for SPC?
Shen Cheng
2/11/20
2/11/20

6.1
Create table to compare your plan
Shen Cheng
2/11/20
2/11/20
1
100%

N
15 Minutes
O
55 Minutes
P
20 Minutes
Q, R
15 Minutes
S
30 Minutes
Keep track of each task and document completion

Step 4: Check – Is the work done correct in every detail? This
work is correct all ways because while working on the problem,
intense planning was conducted for execution. To make it more
clear and accurate, there was the use of lecture notes and canvas
handouts for reference.
Step 5: Learn and Generalize – This exercise has been great as
it has enabled me to stay on track and also become more
accurate and precise. This will help me produce high quality
results during finals.
Problem 2: Supply Chain Strategy for SPC
Step 1: Define the Problem - Establish and Analyze SPC’s
competitive strategy
Step 2: Plan – Step 2: The information available for solving the
problem include lecture notes, textbooks and the ‘Specialty
Packaging Corporation’ Case Study
Step 3: Execute – SPC’s competitive strategy should be the
Porter’s Five Forces Model. This is shown in the diagram
belowCompetitive Strategy
Porter’s Five (Six) Forces Analysis
(
New Entrants:
Alpha Packaging SKS
Suppliers:
Polystyrene Resin supplier
Competitors:
Amcor Berry Plastic Tetra Pak
Buyers:
Supermarket Consumers

Compliments:
N/A
Substitutes:
Ceramic Glass
Eco-Friendly Materials
)
Explanation of the six forces: The Porter’s Model has five
forces and they will help SPC in the following ways; i.
Competitors –Competition is very high because most companies
packaging process is affordable as plastic is cheap. ii. New
Entrants – The force of new entrants is low as most new
entrants are small scale company’s iii. Complements – There are
no complements obtained iv. Suppliers – the supplier force is
medium v. Buyers – The buyer’s force is high vi. Substitutes –
The large force of substitute products is low.
Supply Chain Strategy
SPC Strategic FitEfficiency/Responsiveness SpectrumHighly
Efficient Somewhat Efficient Somewhat Responsive
Highly Responsive In the manufacturing and
supply of plastic containers, Specialty Packaging Corporation
(SPC) is supposed to aim for high efficiency in its supply chain
to be able to match with customer’s demand. The following
graph represents the Implied Demand Uncertainty for SPC.
Implied Demand Uncertainty
High Responsiveness / Low Efficiency

Low Responsiveness / High Efficiency
Low IDU High IDU
In the above figure, SPC lies at the lower part of the IDU
and it is responsive in the Zone of Strategic Fit due to the
relatively low demand of products prevailing. SPC is required
to develop strategies that will enable it to have a high-level
supply chain strategy. Therefore, SPC is required to identify
with six drivers that help in improving the supply chain and
they are Transportation, Facilities, Inventory, Information,
Pricing and Sourcing. Developing these factors will help in
enhancing efficiency in the supply chain process.
Step 4: Check – My assumptions on the company and products
are valid. I have also understood the SPC Manufacturing
process
Step 5: Learn and Generalize – SPC’s function in the supply
chain process should be cohesive and should also work towards
succeeding in its objectives.
Problem 3: Demand Forecasting For SPC
Step 1: Define – Establish the hypothesis and forecasting
method that Julie William should use
Step 2: The information available for solving the problem
include lecture notes, textbooks and the ‘Specialty Packaging
Corporation’ Case Study
Step 3: Execute
Static Method
Given Data
Year

Period
Quarter
Black plastic Demand ('000 lbs)
2002
1
I
2250
2
II
1737
3
III
2412
4
IV
7269
2003
5
I
3514
6
II
8143
7

III
3459
8
IV
7056
2004
9
I
4120
10
II
2766
11
III
2556
12
IV
8253
2005
13
I
5491
14
II
4382

15
III
4315
16
IV
12035
2006
17
I
5648
18
II
3696
19
III
4843
20
IV
13097
De-seasonalize the demand in order to run linear regression to
estimate various levels and trends. The equation to use is:
We are measuring demand on a quarterly basis therefore;

periodicity (p) is 4. We then start deseasonalizing demand at
period (t) =3.
Excel formula used: = (D2+D6+2*SUM (D3:D5))/8
Year
Quarter
Period
Black plastic
Demand ('000 lbs)
De-Seasonalized
Demand
2002
I
1
2250
II
2
1737
III
3
2412
3575
IV
4
7269

3784
2003
I
5
3514
3965
II
6
8143
4070
III
7
3459
4119
IV
8
7056
4272
2004
I
9
4120
4237
II
10
2766

4275
III
11
2556
4596
IV
12
8253
4969
2005
I
13
5491
5391
II
14
4382
6083
III
15
4315
6575
IV
16
12035
6509

2006
I
17
5648
6490
II
18
3696
6688
III
19
4843
IV
20
13097
Forecasting using Holt’s Method
We now forecast demand using Level and Trend corrected
exponential smoothing. The assumption is that the data has
level, L, and trend, T, only. Process:
Step 1: Regress the given data to compute the initial values of
the level, L0, and initial trend T0. Forecast, F1 = L0 +T0.
Step 2: Adapt Use two smoothing constants, α=0.06 and β=0.06,
to smooth respectively level and trend. L1 = αD1 + (1-α) [L0
+T0], T1 = β [L1 – L0] +(1-β) T0, Forecast, F2 = L1 +T1
Step 3: Forecast. Ft+1 = Lt +Tt, Lt+1 = αDt+1 + (1-α) [Lt +Tt],
Tt+1 = β [Lt+1 – Lt] +(1-β) Tt
In order to obtain L0 and T0, I graphed the Demand for black
plastic and obtained the slope of the functions as L0= 2042.8
and T0=286.61

Forecasting using Winter’s Method
Winter’s Method starts off similarly to the static method. We
de-seasonalize demand by running it through a regression
analysis, and then find the seasonal factors for it. Since the data
remains the same as the static method, the values are equal to: L
= 3046.5 and T = 226.87
Savg1 = (S1+S5+S9+S13+S17)/5 = 0.81, Savg2 =
(S2+S6+S10+S14+S18)/5 = 0.54, Savg3 =
(S3+S7+S11+S15+S19)/5 = 0.64, Savg4 =
(S4+S8+S12+S16+S20)/5 =1.65
Initial Forecast = F1= (L0+ T0) (S1) = 2665
Adaptation: Let α=0.06, β=0.06, γ=0.06, Lt+1 = α (Dt +1/St+1)
+ (1-α) (Lt + Tt), Tt+1 = β (Lt+1 – Lt) + (1 - β) Tt, St+p+1 = γ
(Dt +1/Lt+1) + (1 - γ) St+1
Demand Vs Forecast using Winter’s Method
The forecasting method that Julie Williams should use is
the Winters Forecasting Method as it has been able to forecast
black plastic well. After analyzing the data, it is correct to say
that the greatest factor is the seasonality of data and there is a
negative significant trend. The forecasting results were as
follows and the annual demand was drawn to be 28770 in the
year 2007.
2007 Demand Forecast for Black Plastic (‘000lb.):
Year
Quarter
Period
Forecast Ft
2007

I
21
6090
II
22
4197
III
23
5042
IV
24
13441
Step 4: Check – I have gone through the work several times and
I have elaborated all numbers and equations appropriately. My
assumptions are also reasonable as the results that I obtained
make a lot of sense.
Step 5: Learn and Generalize – To establish the most
appropriate method of forecasting, we have to try all methods
and see how well they predict the actual demand. Through error
analysis, we have been able to see which method was the best
for Julie and Winters Model was finalized to be appropriate to
improve her supply chain and match with both supply and
demand.
Problem 4: Cycle Inventory for Polystyrene At SPC
Step 1: Define – Establish why SPC should have a cycle
inventory in place.
Step 2: Plan – Information for this question is available on
Lecture Notes, Textbooks and SCM text on ‘Short-Term
Discounting’
Step 3: Execute
SPC should have a cycle inventory so that it may be able to
minimize its total inventory costs. SPC can also minimize the

total cost of holding inventory and transportation through
calculating the optimal quantity of inventory per shipment.
Given data/data from problem 3
Variables: Annual demand for black plastic = 28,770, Unit Cost
=$25.00, % Holding Cost = 15%, Fixed shipping cost per order
=$300, 1 unit = 1000 pounds (lbs)
a. Lot size per shipment to minimize total cost
D = annual demand = 28,770 S = 300 h = 0.10 C =20, Q* = =
= 2,145.50693. Lot size per shipment to minimize total cost is
approximately 2,146 units
b. Economic order quantity(EOQ)
The EOQ is similar with the Optimal Order Size which is also
the lot size per shipment. The total cost has been minimized
therefore the Economic Order Quantity is equal to 2,146 units.
c. Number of shipments/year of polystyrene resin in order to
meet the forecasted demand for black plastic in2007.
D = annual demand = 28,770 Q* = 2,146 units, Insert formula as
28,770/2,146 =13.406337Number of shipments/year of
polystyrene resin in order to meet the forecasted demand for
black plastic in 2007 is approximately 13 shipments.d. Cycle
inventory
Q* = 2,146 units, Insert formula as 2,146/2 = 1073. The Cycle
Inventory is approximately 1,073 units.
e. Cycle inventory holding cost
Holding cost =hC
Cycle inventory holding cost = (Q*/2) hC
(2,146/(2) (0.15)(25) =4,023.75
Cycle inventory holding cost is $4,023.75

f. Replenishment cycle time
a. ��ℎ��= # days in a year / #
shipment/year
b. 365/13 =28.08
Replenishment cycle time is approximately 33days
g. Average flow time
D = annual demand = 28,770 Q* = 2,146 units
2,146/2 (28,770) = 0.0372957 Average flow time is around
0.037 year = 0.44 month = 13days
Short Term Discounting:
Now, if the supplier offers a promotional discount of 25% per
unit at the beginning of the year, we determine the optimal
order quantity and the size of the forward buy below:
Given Data
d = discount = 25%, D = demand = 28,770, h = 15%, C = 25, Q*
= 2,146
Qd = 0.25(28,770) / (25-0.25)0.15 + 25(2,146)/(25-0.25)
Qd =7,192.50 / (24.75)0.15 + 53,650/24.75
Qd = 7192.50 / 3.7125 + 53,650/24.75
Qd =1937.3737 + 2167.6768
Qd = 4,105.0505
Insert formulae to obtain 4,105.0505, therefore optimal order
quantity at the discounted price is around 4,105 units
Forward buy = 4,105 – 2,146 = 1,959 units
Step 4: Check – My work is correct and accurate as I used the
required texts and notes in every detail. Therefore, my
assumptions are correct and accurate.
Step 5: Learn and Generalize – After calculating the values of
optimal lot size and economic order quantity, SPC can also take
advantage of the economies of scale. I now have a better
understanding on short-term discounting.

Problem 5: Safety Inventory for Polystyrene Resin at SPC.
Step 1: Define – Establish whether SPC should have a safety
inventory
Step 2: Plan – Information is available on Lecture Notes and
Textbooks
Step 3: Execute
SPC is required to have a safety inventory for polystyrene
resin at SPC as the demand is uncertain and product storage
problems may occur if the actual demand exceeds the forecasts.
SPC should also ensure that it has maintained a safety inventory
for black plastic. The amount of safety inventory that I would
recommend for SPC will vary due to certain circumstances.
The black plastic peak reduces every second quarter of the
year and by using the Winter’s method, the tracking signal
value at period 13 is estimated to be 2.03. The forecasts as
period 13 have a value of 11,825 and the actual demand is
13,673. Results show that SPS is supposed to have a safety
inventory of 2000 units to counteract the underestimation with
the remaining left over inventory which can also be used for
other future periods.
Step 4: Check - My estimates on the amount of Safety Inventory
that SPC should hold seem reasonable and my assumptions are
true as I have used the required textbooks and lecture notes
appropriately.
Step 5: Learn and Generalize – I have learned that with a basic
understanding of safety inventory, a manager can reach at a
reasonable estimate on the amount of safety inventory required.
Problem 6: Execution of Your Plan
Step 1: Define - Using a table compare your plan from Problem
1 with its execution. Indicate the reasons for the difference
between the plan and its execution. Add at least one more
column.
Step 2: Information for the problem is obtained from Problem 1
solutions. Assumptions have been made by using the problem
solver, student and audience. Build a table to compare the plan
with the execution.

Step 3: Execute the Plan
Plan
Execution
Reason
Improvements
Problem 1:
0.6 Hours
Finished on time Hours Spent: 0.6
No difference, plan was well executed, and
work done accurately
No improvements needed because everything went
as planned.
Problem 2:
1.5 Hours
This problem was pretty straightforward,
.
No improvements needed because everything went as planned.
Problem 3:
5.0 Hours
Took much longer than I expected Hours Spent: 5.5
This problem was time consuming and getting correct data and
numbers was quite difficult.
In the future I will automate to process of forecasting using
Visual Basic.
Problem 4:
1.6 Hours
Also took longer than I expected Hours Spent: 1.8
Time Planning was unplanned hence I started the question late
The problem was executed well
Problem 5:
0.3 Hours
Finished Earlier than expected
Hours Spent: 0.4
No difference due to being on schedule going into this phase of
the project

I lacked more data information for extensive analysis of the
question
Problem 6:
0.4 Hours
No difference, plan was well executed, and work was clear and
accurate
No improvements were required as everything was planned well.
Step 4: Check – The work written is correct and accurate as
study was done through using observations.
Step 5: Learn and Generalize – The demand forecasting problem
was very time consuming as it has more problems to solve than
others.

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