Technological Paradigm Shifts Updated


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This is an updated version of a presentation I already gave in 2006 on the EU project ECOLIFE final conference in Vienna.

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Technological Paradigm Shifts Updated

  1. 1. Future Visions of the European Electronics Industry towards 2020 Technological Paradigm Shifts Joachim Hafkesbrink, Innowise Germany
  2. 2. Getting It Wrong: Prophecies From The Past Lord Kelvin, Mathematician and Physicist 1897: „The radio has no future.“ Why the Record Company Decca turned down the Beatles in 1962: „We don‘t like your sound, Guitargroups are a thing of the past.“ Bill Gates, 1981: „640k should be enough for anybody.“ The US-Magazine Popular Mechanics, 1949: „The Computer of the future will maybe still weigh 1.5 tons.“ Kaiser Wilhelm II: „I believe in the horse. The automobile is just a temporary occurence.“ Karl Benz around 1920: „The car is now completely developed. What else can still to come?“ Irving Fisher, Professor of Economy on Oct. 17th 1929: „It looks like the stock markets have reached a permanent high level.“
  3. 3. Table of Contents Paradigm Shift: Definition and Examples Innovation Theory: trajectories, path-dependancies, disruptive technologies Paradigm Shifts and the Law of Acceleration Systems Innovation and Transition Societal Paradigms as a Framework for technological development Drivers and Barriers of Transition Technological Paradigm Shifts 2020
  4. 4. Paradigm Shift: some definitions What is a Paradigm? “a constellation of concepts, values, perceptions, and practices shared by a community, which forms a particular vision of reality and a collective mood that is the basis of the way the community organizes itself” What is a Paradigm Shift? “a change from one way of thinking to another with a profound and irreversible change to a different model of behavior or perception”
  5. 5. Paradigm Shift: some examples moving scientific theory from the Ptolemaic system (the earth at the center of the universe) to the Copernican system (the sun at the center of the universe) moving from Newtonian physics to Relativity and Quantum Physics Invention of fire, wheel etc.
  6. 6. Paradigm Shift in Innovation Theory Joseph A. Schumpeter*: Talks about „disruptive technologies“ or „radical innovation“ = new technological innovation, product, or service that eventually overturns the existing dominant technology or product in the market * Famous Austrian Innovation Researcher
  7. 7. Moore‘s Law: Information Technologies (of all kinds) double their power (price, performance, capacity, bandwith) every year. Source: Ray Kurzweil
  8. 8. Paradigm Shift in Innovation Theory technological revolutions do not occur abruptly they come only after longer periods of traditionally bound technology, where technological improvements follow a more or less fixed path of development
  9. 9. Evolution of a Technology (A technological Trajectory) Degree of Maturity (Performance) New technology Incremental (new trajectory) Innovation Path dependency Radical Innovation Birth Growth Maturity Time Radical Innovation Technological trajectory: industry sticks to a given trajectory (technology path) as long as incremental innovation are favoured to prevent sunk costs from changing the basic technology
  10. 10. Law of Acceleration (Ray Kurzweil) Paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade. That is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 20 years of progress (again at today's rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So the twenty-first century will see about a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor.
  11. 11. Source: Ray Kurzweil
  12. 12. Source: Ray Kurzweil
  13. 13. Systems Innovation: Transition Phases and Levels
  14. 14. Systems Innovation: Multidimensional Shifts Radical structural System innovations innovations Change in market / actor relations Example: Example: Re-Use of electronic devices, components and parts New Business Models for Product-Service Systems Fusion of technologies, - products with new services and new use - models Incremental Radical process innovations innovations Example: Example: Improvement of plastic Non-destructive automatic recognition technology disassembly Change in production / technology
  15. 15. Systems Innovation: Long Waves of Development
  16. 16. Paradigms shifts in the Electronics Industry 1970-2000 A) reactive receptive constructive system B) End of pipe Process Product System C) Specialists Managers Sector Society D) Minimisation Optimisation Acceleration Vision E) Taylorism Automatisation Time to Market Sustainability Standardized production Comparative Advantages Competitive Advantages Systemic Competitiveness A) response phase C) main actors B) focus of attention D) driving philosophy E) trajectory 1970 1980 1990 2000 t „From a linear to a circular valua-added chain based on new paradigms with service extensions.“
  17. 17. Seeds of transition from a production-and-throw-away Economy to a service oriented knowledge based Industry Macro-level: new governance Portfolio - WEEE, EuP, RoHS .... Meso-level: new alliances - joint-cooperative innovation networks, change in cultural and belief regimes Micro-level: actors from different sectors are driving innovation (communication and content provider, suppliers, OEMs, waste management and recycling companies, science/consulting)
  18. 18. Barriers of transition Macro-level: some regulation is more a barrier than a driver Meso-level: loss of ownership may hinder diffusion of product- service shift Micro-level: technical barriers (end of Moore‘s Law 1 in 2015, barriers in multi-disciplinary cooperation – barriers in knowledge transfer)
  19. 19. Technological paradigm shifts towards the year 2020 „New trajectories are things we are researching today and which will be reality tomorrow“ Sources: Research and development programs (national, EU-level, US...) Industry Roadmaps European Technology Platforms Foresight Studies, Delphis, Scenarios ...
  20. 20. What happens in a technological paradigm shift? Way of thinking: vision, basic philosophy, view, mindset Technological kernels: models, basic technology, miniaturization and acceleration... Crossover Trends: convergence, cross-fertilization, embeddedness, computation... Dialogue: connectivity, networks, communication... Capabilities: learning, mimicking, self-sustaining... Environment: way of using it, work organization, energy issues...
  21. 21. “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.” (Winston Churchill)
  22. 22. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 1 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... Technology quot;out-therequot; (technology alien to Technology in support to Technology as interface to Technology becoming a second Vision nature - technology to mankind nature nature control the world) self-organizing, self-repairing, basic maximisation optimisation sufficiency, adaptation, learning fault-tolerance, redundancy, philosophy fuzziness evolutionary, bottum-up, open evolutionary, self-organized, view technocratic, top-down, centralized control distributed and mobile evolve-able systems architecture self-understanding, self- analysis, planning, control mindset adaptation to user's environment awareness, self-learning behaviour to be thought in statistical terms (quot;knowbotsquot;) adaptive algorithms to operate fixed-parameter models, variable-parameter models, fixed-parameter in large, open and non- structural algorithmic for distributed structural algorithmic focus of models, top-down deterministic environments large systems to manage to build distributed, concurrent software algorithmic, unportable, (adaptive embedded systems), dependencies between systems, portability, object development tied to one kind of software that can adapt to different parts of orientation, adaptability to and models hardware or particular different circumstances with programms, limited different environments with operating system limited, or even without, portability limited effort intervention by a developer basic CMOS and additional Post CMOS era: Photonics, technology vacuum tube and throughput by processing systems based on Integrated Circuits/Chips processing discrete transistors parallelisation/distribution biological neural networks linked systems techniques to quantum computing systems
  23. 23. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 2 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... quantum promise, “information nano-scale devices reaching a carriers” based on electrons, miniaturizatio macro meso, micro scale below 10 nanometres (2D- photons, spins, ions, molecular n nanosheets) dynamics, neurons, etc. (qubits); 3D Nanoelectronics Beyond Moore; technological law of More of Moore, End of Moore's Moore's Law singularity (PC will achive acceleration Law for CMOS human brain capacity) megabyte, gigabyte, processing kilobyte, 0.25 MIPS in terabyte and peak performance 1.00 MIPS in the year peta device computing speed the year 1967 of TeraFLOPS for standard chip; 2003 bio-society linking the realms of analog-digital- information, material and life, analogue society digital society bio shift combination of digital and analgous computation completely integrated bio- quot;Bio-ICT Convergencequot;, electronic systems, combination managing the quot;wet frontierquot; of living and artificial systems, cross- mono-disciplinarity inter-disciplinarity (interface between organic and technological artefacts fertilization non-organic; neuro-electronic increasingly involving and interfaces) exploiting the properties of living material data large data and managing diversity in data and knowledge by adaptation, small quantities of data complexity knowledge repositories convergence of digital data, quanta with bio-nano-technologies
  24. 24. Source: Ray Kurzweil The Matrix Remember?
  25. 25. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 3 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... pervasive adaptation ('change' of ICT-systems as fundamental property so that they can develop, grow, self-assemble, bio-chemically based replicate, evolve, adapt, repair computation, ubiquitous and self-organise over long computation (anywhere, periods of time, life-like number-based, quot;turing computationquot;, anytime), morphological computation computation, emotional quot;one level, one unit, one purposequot; computation with distributed computation, biological & intelligence, M3P Systems biohybrid modules for new forms (quot;Many level, Many Unit, Many of computation and enhanced Purposequot;) interaction with the environment, programmable & intelligent materials (computational materials) role of managing input-outputs from multiple networks (WiFi, Bluetooth, operating optimal scheduling and memory utilization UMTS, etc.), managing mobility (who are the neighbours? Where systems are they?), managing reconfigurability (energy saving), managing pervasive communication and bi-directional connectivity: flexible multi- beyond fixed end-to-end connectivity, cable- directional decentralized unidirectional connectivity paradigm: multi- based, fixed-wireless connectivity, 4G wireless (Open connectivity connectivity, cable- directional connectivity, convergence, 1G/2G Wireless Architecture); based 2.5G/3G data-ventric wireless voice centric wireless seamless unification of different communication (UMTS) (GPRS) kinds of networks (wireless, optical) communicati one-to-one one-to-many many-to-many, ubiquitous instant messaging online on
  26. 26. Ubiquituous computing: Hey Baby – what‘s about having a walk? You‘re boring!
  27. 27. ERCIM News No.47, October 2001
  28. 28. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 4 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... heterogenous interconnected networks, massively distributed global networks on planetary interoperable pervasive scale, self-aware IT-networks, computing, GRID-technology, total interoperability of mobile, networking homogenous proprietary 'middleware' as mediator fixed, personal and corporate no networks attributes fixed network structures between structure and content, heterogeneous resources and seamless broadband applications with ubiquitous communication networks access, networked societies of spanning from the personal area artefacts to the regional and global area. user more and more user quot;away from user's attentionquot;, ubiquitous, subconsciously, high user attention detached from attention embedded application intelligent artificial agents with complete agent' approach free association, creativity and (agents that are embodied and empathy that can perceive, self-sufficient, situated, e.g. able understand, and interact with to acquire information through agents single-agent approach multi-agent approach their environment, but also their own sensors and act evolve and learn in order to accordingly, and autonomous, achieve human-like i.e. functioning independently performance activities requiring without external control) context-specific knowledge
  29. 29. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 5 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... intelligent agent technology, configurable by metadata, representing the end-user, able ambient intelligence (built-in) to recall behaviours in context, with contextual awareness, to link to system-centric RFID tags/sensors as part of all- environment for contextual, intelligence stupid maturing pervasive environment with historical and domain knowledge intelligent interfaces, quot;towards and utilise this in improving the natural cognitionquot; interaction, quot;New cognitive paradigmquot;, quot;Embodied Intelligencequot;, quot;Swarm Intelligencequot; Web 4.0 and higher (trustful: managing and operating critical Web 2.0 (blogs bringing infrastructure; bridge between Web1.0 (genesis of dramatic changes in news and physical and virtual world via websites-1995) publishing; Wikipedia, OpenBC, instrumented and managed internet not existing Web1.1. (Mass-capable Ajax etc.) 2005; sensorized physical 1998) Web 1.2. Web 3.0 (melting pot; deeply environment; supporting (More Service 2000) integrated in physical pervasive computing, seamless environments) 2010 access to networked instruments, supercomputers, storage etc.) information context-sensitive semantic byte search string search semantic search selection search security of nanotechnologies eternal systems (quot;software that and biocomputing (Quantum vulnerable lasts 200 yearsquot;), extremely long-Cryptography, security of interdependent ICT
  30. 30.
  31. 31. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 6 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... ICT-devices learning from self-repairing, healing ICT- sophisticated perception devices with reconfigurable systems mimicking humans and features of one device for one structures (self-designing, self- multifunctional devices natural behaviour, ICT-devices devices purpose decision-making and self- involving properties of living maintaining software IT materials including cognition, systems) perception and action Situated and cooperating smart devices (artefacts) with sensing, acting and computational audio cassettes, capabilities 'hidden' in compact disk, handheld environment and calculator, computer bio-electrical robots, nanobots, mobile phones with communicating with each other, mouse, floppy disk, smart drugs, Artificial intelligent multiple functions like ICT everywhere – packaging, examples microprocessor, entities („artilects“) able to camera, music player, clothes, domestic devices, ethernet, laser printer, interpret and respond to human PDA etc leisure devices, business cellular phone, emotions systems, environmental walkman, cray systems, health systems, Smart computer Dust (large networks of sensors); quot;content everywhere and at anytimequot;
  32. 32. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 7 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... personalized and context-aware services adopted to the user's environment ('Situated universal personalized services, Services'), new solutions that product- product-service systems, networks of cooperating products; Data Poor combine technology and service shift Data Rich services, seamless adaptive markets with geography and service systems users, dynamic digital services to users anywhere anytime; Information Rich - Service Rich work- virtual corporation, physical- delegation to AIE (Artificial centralized dezentralized organization virtual confluence Intelligence Entitites) managing reconfigurability to reduce energy consumption, increasing energy shift from tera device computing large energy consumption as a result with high energy consumption to reducing computation to a energy consumption as a result of economic growth and a larger number of parallel but minimal physical process, e.g. issues of macro systems in increasing number of slower cores with less using natural dynamics of place high-performance chips complexity; implementation of molecules (qubits) (Giga device computing) fuel cells for mobile applications
  33. 33. Thank you for your attention Joachim Hafkesbrink Innowise GmbH, Germany RIAS – Rhein-Ruhr Institute for Applied Systems Innovation e.V. Tel. +49-171-12 0 11 77