Lee & Associates East Bay Inc, presents the Mid-Year Retail Commercial Real Estate Review. This report covers vacancy, absorption, and rental rates across Livermore, Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, and Danville. Written and edited by Jessica Mauser. All information contained is copyright of Lee & Associates East Bay and not to be sold or reproduced without the consent of Jessica Mauser.
Kohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living Spaces
Mid-Year Retail Review, Lee & Associates East Bay Inc.
1. 0%
43%
39%
10%
8%
Vacancy Rate by Center Type
Downtown
Anchored
Strip Center/
Neighborhood
Power Center
Free-standing
Lee & Associates maintains an up-to-date database of all available properties and sold/leased properties.
For more local commercial real estate news, insight, and gossip visit www.thestorefront.wordpress.com
MARKET SNAPSHOT
MID-YEAR RETAIL REVIEW
Lee & Associates Tri-Valley Retail Market Report
2nd
Q
uarter 2015
SUMMARY
Available
SF
Inventory
SF
Vacancy
2Q15
Total
Vacancy Absorption
% Change
from 4Q14
Livermore
Downtown
Pleasanton
Downtown
Dublin
San Ramon
Danville
Downtown
Available
SF
Inventory
SF
Vacancy
Rate 2Q15 Absorption
% Change
from 4Q14
Shopping
Centers
Downtowns
Total
Available
SF
Inventory
SF
Vacancy
2Q15
Total
Vacancy Absorption
% Change
from 4Q14
Livermore
Downtown
Pleasanton
Downtown
Dublin
San Ramon
Danville
Downtown
Available
SF
Inventory
SF
Vacancy
Rate 2Q15 Absorption
% Change
from 4Q14
Shopping
Centers
HISTORIC VACANCY RATES
0%
43%
39%
10%
8%
Vacancy Rate by Center Type
Downtown
Anchored
Strip Center/
Neighborhood
Power Center
Free-standing
HISTORIC DOWNTOWN VACANCY RATES
SPACE AVAILABILITY BY CENTER TYPE
TRI-VALLEY
2015 is all about fireworks; retail investment sales are the shining star
in the first half of the year. With a lack of inventory we are seeing
historic low capitalization rates offering buyers very little return on their
investment. In a market that typically supports a 6.5% capitalization rate,
retail assets are trading as low as 4% with the average about 5.5%. As a
result, tenants will be subject to rising rental rates and inevitably, triple
net expenses will climb due to property tax assessments. Buyers range
from local investors to publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trusts
(REITS), many of which are trade buyers. The majority of retail shopping
center sales are off-market transactions in the Tri-Valley.
Retail leasing has been steady with minimal fluctuations in vacancy
rates. The leasing market will remain relatively flat through the end of
2015 with rental rates nearing a plateau. Class “A” anchored centers
are achieving lease rates as high as $60.00 annually (NNN). Strip and
unanchored centers continue to see large discrepancies in pricing, the
average deal completed a tick above $24.00 annual rent (NNN).
Commercial development continues to thrive, accounting for huge
occupancy gains that do not translate into numbers. The majority of
commercial developments in the pipeline are pre-leased. Over two
million square feet of new inventory has been delivered or will be
delivered in the next 18 months, less than 10% will ever make it to market.
It seems fairly evident the commercial market will continue to thrive
throughout the end of 2015 and into early 2016. The delivery of projects
such as Danville Hotel and the second phase of Fallon Gateway will
result in minimal inventory changes, keeping vacancy steady. While I
would be surprised to see rents increase at the pace set from 2014 -
2015, stranger things have happened.
Jessica Mauser, Editor & Retail Specialist
SUMMARY BY SUB-MARKET
2. EXCLUSIVE LEE LISTINGS
Since 1979, our seasoned, motivated shareholders and professionals have been offering comprehensive quality service nationally and locally in a pro-
active manner. We develop customized solutions for all of your real estates needs through our market-to-market knowledge in all property types.
Our unique business model and extensive experience has helped us become one of the largest commercial real estate providers in the United States.
Services Offered:
Market Value Analysis Tenant Representation Investment Sales
Development Analysis Landlord Representation Asset Repositioning
FOR LEASE
Amador Center
6046 Dougherty Road, Dublin
* The property information/detail contained herein has been provided by the seller/lessor or has been obtained from other sources believed to be reliable, and Lee & Associates - East Bay, Inc. has not indepen-
dently verified such information’s accuracy. Lee & Associates - East Bay, Inc. makes no representations, guarantees, or express or implied warranties of any kind regarding the accuracy or completeness of the
information provided herein nor the condition of the property and expressly disclaims all such warranties, including but not limited to the implied warranty of suitability and fitness for a particular purpose.
Buyer/Lessee should perform its own due diligence regarding the accuracy of the information upon which buyer/lessee relies when entering into any transaction with seller/lessor herein. Further, the informa-
tion provided herein, including any sale/lease terms, are being provided subject to errors, omissions, changes of price or conditions, prior sale or lease, and withdrawal without notice.
For the most up to date market information, follow Jessica on her blog www.TheStrorefront.wordpress.com.
RECENT TENANT/BUYER ASSIGNMENTS
SOLD!
First @ Maple, Livermore
Investor Purchase
SOLD!
2617 Old First Street, Livermore
Owner/User Purchase
FOR LEASE
First @ Maple
2491 First Street, Livermore
Inventory: Total square footage of retail space in the
market not including malls and downtown storefronts
Availability: Square footage that is marketed for
lease which is available within 90 days. This also
includes sublease space.
Absorption: The change in availability from the
previous year.
Vacancy: The percent of available space based on
the total inventory.
Triple Net Expenses (NNN): A lease agreement where
the Tenant is responsible for their proportionate
share of taxes, insurance, maintenance and building
repairs. Triple Net Expenses are in addition to base
rent.
*Total inventory has changed due to new construction
KEY TERMS & DEFINITIONS
LEE & ASSOCIATES - Your Retail Connection
Property Tenant
Square
Footage Center Type City
Rose Pavilion Party City 22,000 Specialty Pleasanton
Enea Plaza Tesla Motors 23,000 Specialty Dublin
Persimmons Place Urban Plates 5,000
Grocery
Anchored Dublin
Property Buyer Type
Square
Footage Price $/SF
Product
Type
6351 Dublin Blvd
Dublin Owner/User 7,000 $2.75m $300 Specialty
Vine Center
Livermore Investor 36,000 $7.8m
$216
4.8% CAP Strip Center
2420 San Ramon
Valley Blvd
San Ramon Investor 15,000 $8.0m
$533
5.5% CAP Strip Center
RENT RANGE: COMPETED TRANSACTIONS
MID-YEAR RETAIL REVIEW
Lee & Associates Tri-Valley Retail Market Report
2nd
Q
uarter 2015
$24
$50
$30
$26
$26
$60
$36
$52
$12
$18
$24
$30
$36
$42
$48
$54
$60
$66
$72
Strip Center &
Neighborhood
Centers
Grocery
Anchored: New
Construction
Grocery
Anchored
Power Center
(NNN)
30
Median High/Low Range Lease Rates High/Low
NOTEWORTHY TRANSACTIONS Q1/Q2 RENT SURVEY BY TYPE