Lessons from assessing the World Bank Group’s Support to Urban Transport in the last two decades – An IEG Review
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This presentation is a brief summary of IEG's Evaluation "Mobile Metropolises: Urban Transport Matters," which examines the World Bank Group’s effectiveness in supporting countries’ efforts to achieve mobility for all (including the poor, women, and disabled persons), sustainable urban transport service delivery (from the financial and environmental perspectives), and urban transport institutional development.
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Lessons from assessing the World Bank Group’s Support to Urban Transport in the last two decades – An IEG Review
- 1. evaluations that matter Mobile Metropolises: The World Bank Group’s Role in Supporting Urban Transport #transportmatters
- 2. evaluations that matter Mobile Metropolises: An IEG Evaluation of the World Bank Group’s Support for Urban Transport Fang Xu, Senior Evaluation Officer Andrew H. W. Stone, Adviser Independent Evaluation Group February 8, 2018
- 3. FOCUS
- 4. 4 • The three WBG institutions’ have supported UT projects in about 100 cities. • Four types of interventions: – Roads – Comprehensive public transport – Mass transit (BRT and Metro), and – Upstream support 10 years of urban transport support Roads 2692 1436 1410 3271 1556 2748 1294 1146 2254 1562 2007-2011 2012-2016 13 91 Urban Transport Commitments (in US$ millions) by mode and year of appraisal Others Upstream Metro BRT Conventional Bus
- 5. 5 Urban projects closed or approved between FY2007 and 2016 worth $25 billion • World Bank lending: 279 projects ($23.5 billion) • IFC IS: 21 projects ($541 million) • 6 MIGA Guarantees ($938 million) • Just over half were exclusively about urban transport and mapped to the Transport ICT GP. Portfolio: Scope 279 23.5 21 0.5 6 0.9 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% # Projects Commitment/Guarantee Value Urban Transport Portfolio by WBG Institution World Bank IFC MIGA
- 6. ACHIEVEMENTS
- 7. 7 • Increased supply and enhanced capacity and quality • Promoted private sector provision and strengthened financial sustainability • Helped clients mitigate environmental harm • Influenced beyond direct investments: global knowledge and convening power, South-South learning What has been achieved in urban transport service delivery?
- 8. ISSUES
- 9. 9 • Overall emphasis shifted somewhat from lower middle-income to upper middle-income countries • Although sub-Saharan Africa urbanized rapidly, a sharp decline of public transport support. Unbalanced Portfolio 2007-2011 2012-2016 2118 2161 4424 355 606 672 3223 1405 3376 233 524 335 33 0 Urban Transport Commitments (in US$ millions) by region and year of appraisal 233 EAP SAR ECA MNA LCR AFR Regional and Other
- 10. 10 Insufficient and inconsistent attention to mobility and affordability of the disadvantaged – specifically women, the disabled and the elderly. Limited Service Inclusiveness 26% 7% 4% Roads 9% 16% Buses 88% 6% 29% BRT 76% 17% 31% Metro 7% 0% 4% Upstream 36% 7% 10% Total 52% Poor Women Disabled Urban Transport Projects With Targeted Interventions
- 11. SOLUTIONS
- 12. 12 • Projects including both supply and demand management measures were more effective in improving city-wide mobility. 77% of cities with both achieved improved mobility. • Comprehensive support including both upstream and downstream activities increased environmental benefits. 70% of cities with comprehensive support realized benefits. Comprehensive Approach 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mobility Environment Better Outcomes with Comprehensive Approaches Comprehensive Not Comprehensive
- 13. 13 Inconsistent work quality and practices limited impact: • Economic and financial analysis • M&E quality • Collaboration between IFC and WB (cascade) Enhancing Work Quality
- 14. THE WAY FORWARD
- 15. 15 • Increase UT expertise to create opportunities conducive to building a pipeline of UT projects, particularly in lower-income, rapidly urbanizing countries. • Emphasize systematic analysis of affordability, access, and mobility for disadvantaged groups. • Identify opportunities for comprehensive engagements—particularly related to urban mobility management, road safety, and environmental sustainability. • Incorporate good practices from project appraisals, results frameworks, evaluations, private sector involvement, and internal coordination to strengthen work quality. WBG Recommendations (1)
- 16. 16 • Systematically review estimated vs. actual UT project costs and time. This could help identify trends and inform future interventions; • Agree across WBG on consistent mobility indicators and explore arrangements for sustained monitoring of transport services. This could capture the longer-term impacts of interventions; • Identify opportunities to collaborate across the WBG, including – Private sector investment opportunities in UT as part of the “cascade” approach and – Institutional mechanisms to encourage coordination among WB, IFC, and MIGA project staff and managers. WBG Recommendations (2)
- 17. evaluations that matter Thank you! http://ieg.worldbank.org
- 18. evaluations that matter Go to pollev.com/iegnow To submit your questions to the panel #transportmatters
Editor's Notes
- 10 years of urban transport support Assesses three WBG institutions’ support for UT over 10 years $25 billion investment, more than 100 cities Four types of interventions: roads focus, comprehensive public transport, mass transit, and upstream support Pilot for management recommendations based on the evaluation findings
- 10 years of urban transport support Assesses three WBG institutions’ support for UT over 10 years $25 billion investment, more than 100 cities Four types of interventions: roads focus, comprehensive public transport, mass transit, and upstream support Pilot for management recommendations based on the evaluation findings
- What has been achieved in urban transport service delivery? Increased supply and enhanced capacity and quality Promoted private sector provision and strengthened financial sustainability Helped clients mitigate environmental harm Influence beyond direct investments: global knowledge and convening power, South-South learning For example, In Tanzania, the World Bank introduced the country’s first BRT, which became fully operational in 2016.
- Urbanization Although Sub-Saharan Africa urbanized rapidly, a sharp decline of public transport support. Overall emphasis shifted somewhat from lower middle-income to upper middle-income countries
- Service inconsistencies Insufficient and inconsistent attention to mobility and affordability of the disadvantaged – specifically women, the disabled and the elderly.
- Sustainability benefits of comprehensive approach Projects including both supply and demand management measures were more effective in improving city-wide mobility. An examples of demand management is seen in Guangzhou, China, where under the China–GEF–World Bank Urban Transport Partnership, it was estimated that carbon dioxide emissions were reduced by 2.1 megatons per year after the city increased parking fees and applied car purchase and usage restrictions. Upstream support includes support for environmental policies and regulations and capacity building of relevant institutions. Downstream support could support such measures as establishing air quality management and monitoring systems or centers, implementing conversions to cleaner fuels, technologies and vehicles, and establish vehicle emissions inspection facilities. Comprehensive support including both upstream and downstream activities increased environmental benefits. 70% of cities with comprehensive support realized benefits. Moreover, IEG found that when projects incorporated and implemented demand management activities, 77 percent were successful in improving mobility. By contrast, only 60 percent of projects which either did not incorporate or did not implement demand management activities were able to improve mobility.
- Inconsistent work quality and practices limited impact: Economic and financial analysis: The analysis of project financial viability, cost, and timing appeared frequently optimistic. Ex ante analysis often ignored an explicit consideration of subsidy, maintenance costs, & alternative options. M&E quality: Data weaknesses and indicator inconsistencies across projects limit learning and accountability. For example, missing or inconsistent measures of mobility, absence of baseline measurement… Collaboration between IFC and WB (cascade): Communication (and coordination) between the institutions of the World Bank Group appeared weak in urban transport engagements. As a result, there may be unrealized investment opportunities involving private service provision of urban transport services.
- WBG Recommendations (1) Increase UT expertise to enable engagement opportunities conducive to building a pipeline of UT projects, particularly in lower-income countries that are urbanizing rapidly. Increase the emphasis on the systematic analysis of affordability, access, and mobility for disadvantaged groups. Identify opportunities for comprehensive engagements—particularly on issues related to urban mobility management, road safety, and environmental sustainability. Incorporate good practices from project appraisals, results frameworks, evaluations, private sector involvement, and internal coordination to strengthen work quality in UT operations.
- WBG Recommendations (2) Undertake a systematic review of estimated vs. actual project completion costs and time for the UT portfolio to identify broad trends and better inform future interventions; Coordinate across the WBG to agree on a consistent set of mobility indicators and explore arrangements for sustained monitoring of transport services to capture the longer-term impacts of interventions; Identify opportunities for closer collaboration across the WBG, including identifying private sector investment opportunities in UT as part of the “cascade” approach and developing institutional mechanisms to encourage coordination among WB, IFC, and MIGA project staff and managers.