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Lessons from assessing the World Bank Group’s Support to Urban Transport in the last two decades – An IEG Review

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This presentation is a brief summary of IEG's Evaluation "Mobile Metropolises: Urban Transport Matters," which examines the World Bank Group’s effectiveness in supporting countries’ efforts to achieve mobility for all (including the poor, women, and disabled persons), sustainable urban transport service delivery (from the financial and environmental perspectives), and urban transport institutional development.

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Lessons from assessing the World Bank Group’s Support to Urban Transport in the last two decades – An IEG Review

  1. 1. evaluations that matter Mobile Metropolises: The World Bank Group’s Role in Supporting Urban Transport #transportmatters
  2. 2. evaluations that matter Mobile Metropolises: An IEG Evaluation of the World Bank Group’s Support for Urban Transport Fang Xu, Senior Evaluation Officer Andrew H. W. Stone, Adviser Independent Evaluation Group February 8, 2018
  3. 3. FOCUS
  4. 4. 4 • The three WBG institutions’ have supported UT projects in about 100 cities. • Four types of interventions: – Roads – Comprehensive public transport – Mass transit (BRT and Metro), and – Upstream support 10 years of urban transport support Roads 2692 1436 1410 3271 1556 2748 1294 1146 2254 1562 2007-2011 2012-2016 13 91 Urban Transport Commitments (in US$ millions) by mode and year of appraisal Others Upstream Metro BRT Conventional Bus
  5. 5. 5 Urban projects closed or approved between FY2007 and 2016 worth $25 billion • World Bank lending: 279 projects ($23.5 billion) • IFC IS: 21 projects ($541 million) • 6 MIGA Guarantees ($938 million) • Just over half were exclusively about urban transport and mapped to the Transport ICT GP. Portfolio: Scope 279 23.5 21 0.5 6 0.9 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% # Projects Commitment/Guarantee Value Urban Transport Portfolio by WBG Institution World Bank IFC MIGA
  6. 6. ACHIEVEMENTS
  7. 7. 7 • Increased supply and enhanced capacity and quality • Promoted private sector provision and strengthened financial sustainability • Helped clients mitigate environmental harm • Influenced beyond direct investments: global knowledge and convening power, South-South learning What has been achieved in urban transport service delivery?
  8. 8. ISSUES
  9. 9. 9 • Overall emphasis shifted somewhat from lower middle-income to upper middle-income countries • Although sub-Saharan Africa urbanized rapidly, a sharp decline of public transport support. Unbalanced Portfolio 2007-2011 2012-2016 2118 2161 4424 355 606 672 3223 1405 3376 233 524 335 33 0 Urban Transport Commitments (in US$ millions) by region and year of appraisal 233 EAP SAR ECA MNA LCR AFR Regional and Other
  10. 10. 10 Insufficient and inconsistent attention to mobility and affordability of the disadvantaged – specifically women, the disabled and the elderly. Limited Service Inclusiveness 26% 7% 4% Roads 9% 16% Buses 88% 6% 29% BRT 76% 17% 31% Metro 7% 0% 4% Upstream 36% 7% 10% Total 52% Poor Women Disabled Urban Transport Projects With Targeted Interventions
  11. 11. SOLUTIONS
  12. 12. 12 • Projects including both supply and demand management measures were more effective in improving city-wide mobility. 77% of cities with both achieved improved mobility. • Comprehensive support including both upstream and downstream activities increased environmental benefits. 70% of cities with comprehensive support realized benefits. Comprehensive Approach 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mobility Environment Better Outcomes with Comprehensive Approaches Comprehensive Not Comprehensive
  13. 13. 13 Inconsistent work quality and practices limited impact: • Economic and financial analysis • M&E quality • Collaboration between IFC and WB (cascade) Enhancing Work Quality
  14. 14. THE WAY FORWARD
  15. 15. 15 • Increase UT expertise to create opportunities conducive to building a pipeline of UT projects, particularly in lower-income, rapidly urbanizing countries. • Emphasize systematic analysis of affordability, access, and mobility for disadvantaged groups. • Identify opportunities for comprehensive engagements—particularly related to urban mobility management, road safety, and environmental sustainability. • Incorporate good practices from project appraisals, results frameworks, evaluations, private sector involvement, and internal coordination to strengthen work quality. WBG Recommendations (1)
  16. 16. 16 • Systematically review estimated vs. actual UT project costs and time. This could help identify trends and inform future interventions; • Agree across WBG on consistent mobility indicators and explore arrangements for sustained monitoring of transport services. This could capture the longer-term impacts of interventions; • Identify opportunities to collaborate across the WBG, including – Private sector investment opportunities in UT as part of the “cascade” approach and – Institutional mechanisms to encourage coordination among WB, IFC, and MIGA project staff and managers. WBG Recommendations (2)
  17. 17. evaluations that matter Thank you! http://ieg.worldbank.org
  18. 18. evaluations that matter Go to pollev.com/iegnow To submit your questions to the panel #transportmatters

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